2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

hometruths

ongarite wrote: »

The level on capital reserves that banks have to hold in Ireland is 3 times that of EU countries.
That’s because of the risk of default/non payment of loans here and the insane difficulty with eviction.
See pause on eviction again until July after press, political uproar on Monday.

The people by voting for TDs & parties who all are fine with this, have to shoulder some of the blame for 2 banks pulling out in the last year.

The problem is that there are no TDs or parties to vote for who are saying I think we need to start repossessing houses if people don't pay their mortgages.

This is because public opinion seems to be we don't want banks to repossess houses - the people shouting loudest are anti bank campaigners, we bailed them out, reckless lending, da family home, think of the children etc.

But I genuinely believe that the vast majority of people who get up early in the morning have no idea of the extent of the problem and how it is effecting all of us in higher mortgage rates, increased taxes, higher house prices, housing supply shortage etc. If they understood this public opinion would change pretty quickly.

We need somebody like an anti David Hall to get on the airwaves and campaign for repossessions. But nobody wants to do it because it so emotive.

Wanderer78

schmittel wrote:

But I genuinely believe that the vast majority of people who get up early in the morning have no idea of the extent of the problem and how it is effecting all of us in higher mortgage rates, increased taxes, higher house prices, housing supply shortage etc. If they understood this public opinion would change pretty quickly.

Higher prices are more to do with allowing the fire sectors(finance, insurance and real estate), to dictate the narrative

PropQueries

Ok, so the Government own a majority stake in both AIB and PTSB and a significant minority share of BOI.

With the planned LDA they will have significant control over many of our potential development landbanks in our towns and cities. Through HAP and long-term lease agreements they also have a significant say on rent levels in Ireland. Through purchases of homes (new and second-hand) , they have a significant impact on the market selling prices.

The Government now has significant control or at least a real say over the future direction of house prices and rents in Ireland IMO

The public can finally lay the blame on the Government for any future housing problems and the Government really can’t use the phrase “market forces” anymore as they appear, to me anyway, to be or will shortly be, the market on both sides of the equation IMO

ongarite

Turning into a bygone USSR state with all banks, post office & housing controlled by the state.

Get me out of this future hell hole!!

Villa05

enricoh wrote:

If I was a bank handing out mortgage loans and looking at sinn fein coming over the hill I'd be legging it in good time too!!

The current system is a product of ff/Fg and the banks were in on the non repossession also as they knew mass repossessions would kill them off. Keep the people in the home looking after the asset until the market picked up appeared to be the policy.

Of course actions have consequences

PropQueries

ongarite wrote: »

Turning into a bygone USSR state with all banks, post office & housing controlled by the state.

Get me out of this future hell hole!!

More like China IMO

The state is or soon will be on one side and the international funds on the other side. The “market forces” in the middle are now or soon will be meaningless in relation to housing costs (buying or renting) going forward IMO

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

The problem is that there are no TDs or parties to vote for who are saying I think we need to start repossessing houses if people don't pay their mortgages.

This is because public opinion seems to be we don't want banks to repossess houses - the people shouting loudest are anti bank campaigners, we bailed them out, reckless lending, da family home, think of the children etc.

But I genuinely believe that the vast majority of people who get up early in the morning have no idea of the extent of the problem and how it is effecting all of us in higher mortgage rates, increased taxes, higher house prices, housing supply shortage etc. If they understood this public opinion would change pretty quickly.

We need somebody like an anti David Hall to get on the airwaves and campaign for repossessions. But nobody wants to do it because it so emotive.

youd be a pariah if you went on that platform unfortunately

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

youd be a pariah if you went on that platform unfortunately

Exactly. And the reason being is that in this country we have tendency to discuss everything on a micro level:

"Poor Paddy and Mary. Paddy lost his job in the last recession and Mary's struggling to hold down two part time jobs to keep food on the table for the kids, do you want to make them homeless? Yes or no?"

The focus is on the consequences for Paddy and Mary.

We need to discuss it on a macro level:

"Should we enforce contract law in Ireland? If somebody does not make payments on their mortgage should the property be repossessed. Yes or no?"

The focus should be on the consequences for society and the economy as a whole.

Sweet.Science

Shutting house building down for most of the year was bordering on criminal

We were already in a huge crisis now things are so much worse

RichardAnd

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Shutting house building down for most of the year was bordering on criminal

We were already in a huge crisis now things are so much worse

This, along with many other things beside, is precisely why I think there needs to be a serious inquiry into the state's behaviour and handling of Covid. Of course, we didn't get one for the financial crisis of the last decade, so I'm not confident this time either. At best, there will be a general election, and Paddy will vote to "punish" FF/FG by electing SF. However this would solve nothing as the legions of civil servant advisors and think-tanks would go nowhere.

The financial crisis gave gave me a healthy suspicion for big government. Call me cynical, but I view the state as a dangerous and very expensive obstacle.

JimmyVik

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Shutting house building down for most of the year was bordering on criminal

We were already in a huge crisis now things are so much worse

Its going to take years to get out of it.
Then we will overshoot it causing another crash.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Exactly. And the reason being is that in this country we have tendency to discuss everything on a micro level:

"Poor Paddy and Mary. Paddy lost his job in the last recession and Mary's struggling to hold down two part time jobs to keep food on the table for the kids, do you want to make them homeless? Yes or no?"

The focus is on the consequences for Paddy and Mary.

We need to discuss it on a macro level:

"Should we enforce contract law in Ireland? If somebody does not make payments on their mortgage should the property be repossessed. Yes or no?"

The focus should be on the consequences for society and the economy as a whole.

I agree with that in its entirety.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

The current system is a product of ff/Fg and the banks were in on the non repossession also as they knew mass repossessions would kill them off. Keep the people in the home looking after the asset until the market picked up appeared to be the policy.

Of course actions have consequences

Current system is down to populism, not simply gubberment. Mixture of weak politicians, populism, rise of the left, lack of personal responsibility

Mad_maxx

Timmyr wrote: »

I dont know where you get your ideas, but NZ is not right wing

its not socially conservative , i accept that

relative to ireland however , its very right wing economically and culturally , they dont do bleeding heart in New Zealand , extremely hard headed folk

Mad_maxx

Wanderer78 wrote: »

How come, what have sf got to do with it?

Our dysfunctional housing market is feeding our dysfunctional banking sector, and vice versa

because SF are vehemently opposed to mortgage defaulters loosing their homes.

Mad_maxx

schmittel wrote: »

The problem is that there are no TDs or parties to vote for who are saying I think we need to start repossessing houses if people don't pay their mortgages.

This is because public opinion seems to be we don't want banks to repossess houses - the people shouting loudest are anti bank campaigners, we bailed them out, reckless lending, da family home, think of the children etc.

But I genuinely believe that the vast majority of people who get up early in the morning have no idea of the extent of the problem and how it is effecting all of us in higher mortgage rates, increased taxes, higher house prices, housing supply shortage etc. If they understood this public opinion would change pretty quickly.

We need somebody like an anti David Hall to get on the airwaves and campaign for repossessions. But nobody wants to do it because it so emotive.

in many ways we are a nation made up entirely of children , nations made up of adults understand that if you stop paying your mortgage , you loose your home

as for " an anti David Hall "

there is one , his name is Brendan Burgess , unfortunately he is an incredibly unlikeable , contrary and borderline obnoxious individual , dont get me wrong , he is 100% correct on mortgage defaulters and David Hall is a pure charlatan of the highest order but you need someone with an ounce of likability and Burgess doesnt even have that

RichardAnd

Mad_maxx wrote: »

because SF are vehemently opposed to mortgage defaulters loosing their homes.

Do houses ever really get repossessed here? I have family members who have been spotty with mortgage payments for over a decade and have not lost their houses.

timmyntc

RichardAnd wrote: »

Do houses ever really get repossessed here? I have family members who have been spotty with mortgage payments for over a decade and have not lost their houses.

Only if you voluntarily give it up when asked

awec

RichardAnd wrote: »

Do houses ever really get repossessed here? I have family members who have been spotty with mortgage payments for over a decade and have not lost their houses.

Hundreds get repossessed each year.

I expect the 2020 number would be very low though.

Wanderer78

Mad_maxx wrote: »

because SF are vehemently opposed to mortgage defaulters loosing their homes.

maybe if we created a somewhat functioning property market, such issues wouldnt arise

timmyntc

Wanderer78 wrote: »

maybe if we created a somewhat functioning property market, such issues wouldnt arise

Banks repossessing property IS a sign of a functional good property market.
The inability to repossess is the major disfunction.

mcsean2163

RichardAnd wrote: »

This, along with many other things beside, is precisely why I think there needs to be a serious inquiry into the state's behaviour and handling of Covid. Of course, we didn't get one for the financial crisis of the last decade, so I'm not confident this time either. At best, there will be a general election, and Paddy will vote to "punish" FF/FG by electing SF. However this would solve nothing as the legions of civil servant advisors and think-tanks would go nowhere.

The financial crisis gave gave me a healthy suspicion for big government. Call me cynical, but I view the state as a dangerous and very expensive obstacle.

In 2017 arrears of over two years were 5% in main banks.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/arizona-firm-to-buy-irish-subprime-loans-at-75-discount-1.4536367?mode=amp

Given how much has gone to vulture funds it'd probably be harder to calculate now. Astonishing really and worry.

An obvious solution would be the state buy the loans, repossess the houses but leave the families in them. Imagine if the state bought those loans @25%. Good grief, they really are incompetent.

Wanderer78

timmyntc wrote: »

Banks repossessing property IS a sign of a functional good property market.
The inability to repossess is the major disfunction.

again, our dysfunctional housing market is feeding into our dysfunctional banking sector, and vise versa, both need to be resolved in order to create both functional markets

Mad_maxx

Wanderer78 wrote: »

maybe if we created a somewhat functioning property market, such issues wouldnt arise

a functioning property market requires repossessions

timmyntc

mcsean2163 wrote: »

An obvious solution would be the state buy the loans, repossess the houses but leave the families in them. Imagine if the state bought those loans @25%. Good grief, they really are incompetent.

What would the state then do with its newly acquired property?

It would still run into the same eviction issues if they tried vacate the property.
If they leave them in situ then the state has basically just paid your mortgage.

The only solution is to allow easy evictions of non-paying mortgage holders. Like they do all over the world.

timmyntc

Wanderer78 wrote: »

again, our dysfunctional housing market is feeding into our dysfunctional banking sector, and vise versa, both need to be resolved in order to create both functional markets

Repossessions are both normal and necessary in a functional housing market.
You cant have a functional market without repossessions.

PropQueries

Mad_maxx wrote: »

its not socially conservative , i accept that

relative to ireland however , its very right wing economically and culturally , they dont do bleeding heart in New Zealand , extremely hard headed folk

It may have something to do with so many groups who get bailed-out through the back door. If I can’t afford to pay my mortgage I can easily throw at the government that don’t they borrow to help farmers, keep pre-2011 public sector salary and pensions at boom time levels, didn’t you borrow to bail out the banks etc. etc. etc.

While it’s not the thing to say, the only group who actually pay up front for their “bailout” are many of the unemployed through their PRSI etc.

Wanderer78

Mad_maxx wrote: »

a functioning property market requires repossessions

...and we need a functioning property market in order to do that, this is a merry-go-round

Wanderer78

timmyntc wrote: »

Repossessions are both normal and necessary in a functional housing market.
You cant have a functional market without repossessions.

Wanderer78 wrote: »

...and we need a functioning property market in order to do that, this is a merry-go-round

.....................

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Hundreds get repossessed each year.

I expect the 2020 number would be very low though.

Hundreds is tiny, meaningless in the context of the number in default.