2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Hundreds is tiny, meaningless in the context of the number in default.

Yes, but I was just saying that it does happen.

It's a difficult conundrum, because anyone repossessed is likely going to be relying on the state to house them. And we all know what that means.

hometruths

Mad_maxx wrote: »

in many ways we are a nation made up entirely of children , nations made up of adults understand that if you stop paying your mortgage , you loose your home

as for " an anti David Hall "

there is one , his name is Brendan Burgess , unfortunately he is an incredibly unlikeable , contrary and borderline obnoxious individual , dont get me wrong , he is 100% correct on mortgage defaulters and David Hall is a pure charlatan of the highest order but you need someone with an ounce of likability and Burgess doesnt even have that

I remember Burgess made an attempt a few years ago to highlight the issue, and he just ended up in a shouting match with Hall. I agree Burgess is not exactly easy to warm to, but he's nothing like as obnoxious as Hall.

timmyntc

Wanderer78 wrote: »

.....................

If repossessions were easy then we would not have a dysfunctional property market.
As I've said before, the major dysfunction is the inability to repossess.

There is nothing else stopping repossessions from being allowed - its purely a govt decision to legislate for it.

I have no idea what you mean by we need a functioning property market to allow repossessions - the lack of repossessions IS the dysfunction!

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

Hundreds is tiny, meaningless in the context of the number in default.

This one summed it up for me:

https://eddempsey.ie/Residential-Property/Woodley-52-Foster-s-Avenue-Mount-Merrion-Co-Dublin/113

Fine family home in a prime location. Falling to pieces with the last mortgage repayment made in October 2014, coming to market in 2021 (assume a lengthy battle was required). The strangest thing in Ireland is, you could easily have someone like Richard Boyd Barrett outside this house campaigning on behalf of the "poor home owners". Ireland is an odd country when it comes to housing.

https://www.thejournal.ie/fosters-avenue-repossession-3013593-Oct2016/

Mad_maxx

PropQueries wrote: »

It may have something to do with so many groups who get bailed-out through the back door. If I can’t afford to pay my mortgage I can easily throw at the government that don’t they borrow to help farmers, keep pre-2011 public sector salary and pensions at boom time levels, didn’t you borrow to bail out the banks etc. etc. etc.

While it’s not the thing to say, the only group who actually pay up front for their “bailout” are many of the unemployed through their PRSI etc.

did you mean to quote someone else perhaps ?

awec

DataDude wrote: »

This one summed it up for me:

https://eddempsey.ie/Residential-Property/Woodley-52-Foster-s-Avenue-Mount-Merrion-Co-Dublin/113

Fine family home in a prime location. Falling to pieces with the last mortgage repayment made in October 2014, coming to market in 2021 (assume a lengthy battle was required). The strangest thing in Ireland is, you could easily have someone like Richard Boyd Barrett outside this house campaigning on behalf of the "poor home owners". Ireland is an odd country when it comes to housing.

https://www.thejournal.ie/fosters-avenue-repossession-3013593-Oct2016/

Yea those ones are a joke.

I saw that house outside and thought it looked nice but the inside is brutal. Those window frames. The kitchen looks awful cheap.

DataDude

Wanderer78 wrote: »

...and we need a functioning property market in order to do that, this is a merry-go-round

I've never really understood the sentiment that repossessing someone's house is so horrendous. What are you condemning them to? Renting? Like what many/most young families are forced to do these days?

Just seems strange to so aggressively defend the "right to the family home"...once you have a family home...if you don't...then good luck to you...

People completely ignore that by affording additional protections/rights to those with something, you automatically disadvantage the people without that thing..

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Yes, but I was just saying that it does happen.

It's a difficult conundrum, because anyone repossessed is likely going to be relying on the state to house them. And we all know what that means.

I actually think this is a myth - that everybody who faces repossession will require state housing. The can but wont pay cohort are significant.

And even if it is was true. Repossessions need to happen anyway to kick start the musical chairs I have been banging on about.

eg there are those in serious arrears in 4 bed houses but would only qualify for a two bed house from the state. Repossess the four bed and if they need assistance for a two bed, then that will be provided for them.

There is no shortage of support available in this country to those who need it. We should not be giving people a pass on their mortgage as well.

Wanderer78

timmyntc wrote: »

If repossessions were easy then we would not have a dysfunctional property market.
As I've said before, the major dysfunction is the inability to repossess.

There is nothing else stopping repossessions from being allowed - its purely a govt decision to legislate for it.

I have no idea what you mean by we need a functioning property market to allow repossessions - the lack of repossessions IS the dysfunction!

DataDude wrote: »

I've never really understood the sentiment that repossessing someone's house is so horrendous. What are you condemning them to? Renting? Like what many/most young families are forced to do these days?

Just seems strange to so aggressively defend the "right to the family home"...once you have a family home...if you don't...then good luck to you...

People completely ignore that by affording additional protections/rights to those with something, you automatically disadvantage the people without that thing..

again, we re stuck in a highly dysfunctional cycle in both markets, neither can be resolved as is, something dramatic needs to change in order to break this cycle. allowing major sectors, in particular the fire sectors(finance, insurance and real estate) to resolve these issues, primarily since 08, has failed, we need to accept this before moving forward, but we re not ready for that just yet

awec

schmittel wrote: »

I actually think this is a myth - that everybody who faces repossession will require state housing. The can but wont pay cohort are significant.

And even if it is was true. Repossessions need to happen anyway to kick start the musical chairs I have been banging on about.

eg there are those in serious arrears in 4 bed houses but would only qualify for a two bed house from the state. Repossess the four bed and if they need assistance for a two bed, then that will be provided for them.

There is no shortage of support available in this country to those who need it. We should not be giving people a pass on their mortgage as well.

Yea that's a fair point.

I'd definitely differentiate between the absolute chancers who haven't paid a cent in years, and those who have fallen behind but are trying their best and do have a reasonable chance of catching up again. I would not want to see anyone in the later group repossessed, it would be counter productive.

PropQueries

Mad_maxx wrote: »

did you mean to quote someone else perhaps ?

Just giving what I believe are reasons why we can’t appear to be as hard-headed as New Zealand etc.

Too many relatively wealthy groups in Ireland are reliant on the states largesse and any group (e.g. mortgage defaulters) can throw that back at them if they believe they’re being treated too harshly or differently to other connected sections of society.

Either everyone is at the mercy of the market or no one should be IMO

Otherwise it just leads to real anger IMO

Mad_maxx

schmittel wrote: »

I remember Burgess made an attempt a few years ago to highlight the issue, and he just ended up in a shouting match with Hall. I agree Burgess is not exactly easy to warm to, but he's nothing like as obnoxious as Hall.

Hall is a pure charlatan , his company have negotiated deals effectively where banks sold houses to the company , the defaulters remained in situ but the state guarenteed the rent to Halls company , Hall also gets to portray himself as a defender of a family facing eviction



https://www.askaboutmoney.com/threads/david-hall-claiming-credit-for-stopping-an-eviction.211134/

timmyntc

Wanderer78 wrote: »

again, we re stuck in a highly dysfunctional cycle in both markets, neither can be resolved as is, something dramatic needs to change in order to break this cycle. allowing major sectors, in particular the fire sectors(finance, insurance and real estate) to resolve these issues, primarily since 08, has failed, we need to accept this before moving forward, but we re not ready for that just yet

This is a load of waffle.
You've said nothing of value there.

The govt can fix the repossession issue - it is solely up to them to reform the process to allow evictions & repossessions. It can be resolved, the political will isnt there however.

As for house prices, that is a separate issue that has no bearing on repossession/mortgage rates issue.

DataDude

If you really want to make your blood boil, have a read of this with your lunch. He gets torn to pieces in the comments section, and is responding himself so nearly more entertaining than the article.

People pulled up his records + planning applications and he was collecting 100s of k from the medical card scheme. Built a mcmansion in the country. Fell into negative equity so emigrated to Australia. Didn't even have the decency to leave the key in the door, continued to rent the house out for years whilst not paying a dime on the mortgage. Bought a massive house in Australia all whilst keeping the house in Ireland rented. Then writes into the Irish Times saying his debt should be forgiven because we need him...

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/generation-emigration/many-emigrants-left-to-escape-debt-why-isn-t-this-talked-about-1.2503581

Looked like it worked anyway - seems he's back in business

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/enniscorthyguardian/news/local-doctor-questions-nphets-covid-19-plan-39670981.html

Wanderer78

timmyntc wrote: »

This is a load of waffle.
You've said nothing of value there.

The govt can fix the repossession issue - it is solely up to them to reform the process to allow evictions & repossessions. It can be resolved, the political will isnt there however.

As for house prices, that is a separate issue that has no bearing on repossession/mortgage rates issue.

...and if this was done, there would be rapid rise in homelessness, this is currently unresolvable, unless radical changes are implemented, i personally would go with a public banking system, but that to would be problematic

timmyntc

Wanderer78 wrote: »

...and if this was done, there would be rapid rise in homelessness, this is currently unresolvable, unless radical changes are implemented, i personally would go with a public banking system, but that to would be problematic

No there wouldnt! The total housing stock wont have changed, it will just have shuffled around a bit.
Those who refuse to pay can rent or seek state assistance, meanwhile those who are currently renting and looking to buy can buy the houses released to the market and will in turn free up rental spots.

Stop your scaremongering - the only crisis is the one we're in right now with banks pulling out. Fixing repossessions will take us out of crisis not into it.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Yea that's a fair point.

I'd definitely differentiate between the absolute chancers who haven't paid a cent in years, and those who have fallen behind but are trying their best and do have a reasonable chance of catching up again. I would not want to see anyone in the later group repossessed, it would be counter productive.

I've posted on this before, but one of the things that drives me mad is tht it is so blindingly obvious how to fix the problem, and in a politically palatable way.

1) Announce a wholesale change in thinking to tackle mortgage arrears - banks will be encouraged to repossess, special repossessions court set up to accelerate process.
2) Announce that banks and courts will work through a list starting with the longest term arrears - eg in you are in arrears for over 10 years you can expect action imminently. If your arrears are closer to the bottom of that list - i.e less than 90 days, then it will take a bit of time to get to you.
3) Announce that the process is simple - contract law will be strictly enforced. Did you sign a contract that allows the bank to repossess the home if you don't make the payments? If so, and you are in arrears, the house will be repossessed with no exceptions.

This will have the immediate effect that everybody who is in arrears and wants to keep the property will want to get as far away from the top of that list as possible. The only way to do that is start paying off the arrears as much as they can afford, and will drastically reduce the overall problem.

Repossess the ones at the top of the list that are never going to be sorted and keep working though them. That will kick start the musical chairs and bring a much needed turnover back into the market.

It's politically palatable because no member of the public is going to complain that those who are by definition the worst in the country at paying their mortgages deserve to keep the properties.

I think some people might be surprised at the value and quality of the properties that this would flush out. The maths suggests the problem is dominated by the likes of the Mount Merrion house rather than your typical social housing.

Browney7

schmittel wrote: »

I actually think this is a myth - that everybody who faces repossession will require state housing. The can but wont pay cohort are significant.

And even if it is was true. Repossessions need to happen anyway to kick start the musical chairs I have been banging on about.

eg there are those in serious arrears in 4 bed houses but would only qualify for a two bed house from the state. Repossess the four bed and if they need assistance for a two bed, then that will be provided for them.

There is no shortage of support available in this country to those who need it. We should not be giving people a pass on their mortgage as well.

Agree. Only issue is the thousands of people who are on the housing list ahead of them who have an identified housing "need".

Does Mary and two kids who's being evicted from their D15 4 bed get bumped up the queue and get a 3 bed flat in a Fingal coco property or go into homeless accomodation or does the state start paying HAP for her?

The state likely see it as cheaper to keep kicking the can on repossession - they save a 15 grand a year liability on HAP (1275x12) plus the blessing hearts onto Joe. The lack of housing at the lower levels is a huge issue.

A huge issue of arrears in the "recovery" years was BTL mortgages if I remember from looking at the stats.

Wanderer78

timmyntc wrote: »

No there wouldnt! The total housing stock wont have changed, it will just have shuffled around a bit.
Those who refuse to pay can rent or seek state assistance, meanwhile those who are currently renting and looking to buy can buy the houses released to the market and will in turn free up rental spots.

Stop your scaremongering - the only crisis is the one we're in right now with banks pulling out. Fixing repossessions will take us out of crisis not into it.

this is not scaremongering, its clearly obvious, our approach to these matters, since 08, have largely failed, and we re clearly not ready to accept this yet

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

This one summed it up for me:

https://eddempsey.ie/Residential-Property/Woodley-52-Foster-s-Avenue-Mount-Merrion-Co-Dublin/113

Fine family home in a prime location. Falling to pieces with the last mortgage repayment made in October 2014, coming to market in 2021 (assume a lengthy battle was required). The strangest thing in Ireland is, you could easily have someone like Richard Boyd Barrett outside this house campaigning on behalf of the "poor home owners". Ireland is an odd country when it comes to housing.

https://www.thejournal.ie/fosters-avenue-repossession-3013593-Oct2016/

remember the gorse hill debacle, a bog standard house (literally one of the finest homes in SoCoDu)

PropQueries

DataDude wrote: »

If you really want to make your blood boil, have a read of this with your lunch. He gets torn to pieces in the comments section, and is responding himself so nearly more entertaining than the article.

People pulled up his records + planning applications and he was collecting 100s of k from the medical card scheme. Built a mcmansion in the country. Fell into negative equity so emigrated to Australia. Didn't even have the decency to leave the key in the door, continued to rent the house out for years whilst not paying a dime on the mortgage. Bought a massive house in Australia all whilst keeping the house in Ireland rented. Then writes into the Irish Times saying his debt should be forgiven because we need him...

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/generation-emigration/many-emigrants-left-to-escape-debt-why-isn-t-this-talked-about-1.2503581

Looked like it worked anyway - seems he's back in business

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/enniscorthyguardian/news/local-doctor-questions-nphets-covid-19-plan-39670981.html

He has a bit of a point though. The risk takers are what we need to keep an economy growing. Obviously, it’s the risk takers who will leave if they’re not allowed to start again and punished for decades if they fail just once.

Workers pay PRSI so are entitled to any help they get, the state took the tax revenue from the developers when times were good before they went bust.

The only groups who appear to have been bailed out are the non risk takers who add very little to the future growth of the economy IMO

A good example is in 2012 when the state allowed AIB to put over a €1billion into the AIB pension fund at a time when we really didn’t have any cash.

Maybe keeping AIB open was needed. But funding their pension deficit? Was that needed?

Link to AIB pension deficit funding here: https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/aib-beats-pension-crisis-after-11bn-loans-bailout-30740410.html

DataDude

PropQueries wrote: »

He has a bit of a point though. The risk takers are what we need to keep an economy growing. Obviously, it’s the risk takers who will leave if they’re not allowed to start again and punished for decades if they fail just once.

Workers pay PRSI so are entitled to any help they get, the state took the tax revenue from the developers when times were good before they went bust.

The only groups who appear to have been bailed out are the non risk takers who add very little to the future growth of the economy IMO

A good example is in 2012 when the state allowed AIB to put over a €1billion into the AIB pension fund at a time when we really didn’t have any cash.

Maybe keeping AIB open was needed. But funding their pension deficit? Was that needed?

Link to AIB pension deficit funding here: https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/aib-beats-pension-crisis-after-11bn-loans-bailout-30740410.html

Really don't see a GP servicing medical card patients building a 300Sqm+ one off house in the country as a "risk-taker". Or certainly not the type of risk-taker that we desperately need to protect and nurture....

I'd somewhat agree with entrepreneurs in some instances, but you always have to be wary of the moral hazard raised when people are protected from the consequences of their actions.

combat14

will be interesting to see if mortgage interest rates start to rise here once we are left with very little competition again effectively just AIB and BOI and to a small extent new player Avant

will house prices start to drop as rates rises due to lack of competition once again adversely affecting consumers

as other posters mentioned this does seem to be the price to be paid for facilitating those who decide to never pay their mortgage

once again the government appear to be doing nothing as irish interest are about double the eu average....

PropQueries

DataDude wrote: »

Really don't see a GP servicing medical card patients building a 300Sqm+ one off house in the country as a "risk-taker". Or certainly not the type of risk-taker that we desperately need to protect and nurture....

I'd somewhat agree with entrepreneurs in some instances, but you always have to be wary of the moral hazard raised when people are protected from the consequences of their actions.

I agree with your point as well. But the current generation of potential risk takers are going to be looking at our debt levels and asking themselves if they succeed and pay taxes, where are those taxes going? To invest in better infrastructure, a better society etc. or just going to pay back the debt associated with the previous generations bailout.

Extremely hard for a risk taker to be incentivised to invest or take a risk in this country at the moment IMO

We had the past 5 very lucky years to get our house in order and now with our current debt levels, covid, the EU/Biden’s tax reforms etc. etc. we’re in an even worse starting point than 2008 IMO

Villa05

engagethecore wrote:

Agreed , its not a fluke that two lenders (who do well abroad) want to pull out of the market . Very difficult to get money when you cant get money back when somebody doesn't pay for their Mortgage

Hubertj wrote:

Current system is down to populism, not simply gubberment. Mixture of weak politicians, populism, rise of the left, lack of personal responsibility

The art of politics in manipulating the public into the belief that your polices are benefitting them when the truth is that its really benefitting that political groups interests, financiers and lobbyists

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

The art of politics in manipulating the public into the belief that your polices are benefitting them when the truth is that its really benefitting that political groups interests, financiers and lobbyists

It’s very easy to blame the Hubble rent for everything when someone has such a blinkered view of what the problems are. Swallowing the populism hook line and sinker when the really problems are a lot bigger than the gubberment.

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

If you really want to make your blood boil, have a read of this with your lunch. He gets torn to pieces in the comments section, and is responding himself so nearly more entertaining than the article.

People pulled up his records + planning applications and he was collecting 100s of k from the medical card scheme. Built a mcmansion in the country. Fell into negative equity so emigrated to Australia. Didn't even have the decency to leave the key in the door, continued to rent the house out for years whilst not paying a dime on the mortgage. Bought a massive house in Australia all whilst keeping the house in Ireland rented. Then writes into the Irish Times saying his debt should be forgiven because we need him...

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/generation-emigration/many-emigrants-left-to-escape-debt-why-isn-t-this-talked-about-1.2503581

Looked like it worked anyway - seems he's back in business

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/enniscorthyguardian/news/local-doctor-questions-nphets-covid-19-plan-39670981.html

It’s to unbelievable you’d nearly think it’s a wind up but it isn’t. Sad thing is there are plenty of people like him that can’t or won’t accept responsibility for their own actions. Imagine having that clown as your GP.

Donald Trump

engagethecore wrote: »

Agreed , its not a fluke that two lenders (who do well abroad) want to pull out of the market . Very difficult to get money when you cant get money back when somebody doesn't pay for their Mortgage

There might also be another reason why they jump. They might be expecting a market correction in the slightly longer term and don't want to be left with impaired assets on their book.


Short term bubble and medium term bust perhaps.

Villa05

The KBC news and who is potentially buying it wont come as any suprise to McWilliams who predicted a similar outcome for Ulster Bank in his podcast
How Ireland Works

and seperatley this on this one is really good. David interviews a former US Bank Regulator on how he would handle

The Davy Stockbrokers scandal

They claim that some of those involved were also involved in the greencore scandal back in 1993, Its like an episode of only fools and horses starring the wealthy and privileged

For those that remember around that time there were numerous financial scandals Ansbacher, DIRT Tax etc and shortly after them their was a tax amnesty introduced despite the protestations of revenue as they were close to catching most of the issues

It is amazing that no criminal investigation was initiated following the Davy Scandal

Wanderer78

Villa05 wrote: »

The KBC news and who is potentially buying it wont come as any suprise to McWilliams who predicted a similar outcome for Ulster Bank in his podcast
How Ireland Works

and seperatley this on this one is really good. David interviews a former US Bank Regulator on how he would handle

The Davy Stockbrokers scandal

They claim that some of those involved were also involved in the greencore scandal back in 1993, Its like an episode of only fools and horses starring the wealthy and privileged

For those that remember around that time there were numerous financial scandals Ansbacher, DIRT Tax etc and shortly after them their was a tax amnesty introduced despite the protestations of revenue as they were close to catching most of the issues

It is amazing that no criminal investigation was initiated following the Davy Scandal

its actually very disturbing, yet again!