2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

hometruths

awec wrote: »

I'm not sure this is accurate. This undoubtedly happens but I would say it's the exception rather than the rule.

Someone in mortgage arrears, who gets repossessed, is never going to get another mortgage again. Downsizing is not an option.

Of course it is an option. If they are unable to afford a smaller mortgage, they downsize by renting a house that they can afford.

What is the problem with this? It seems to work just fine in every other country.

timmyntc

awec wrote: »

I'm not sure this is accurate. This undoubtedly happens but I would say it's the exception rather than the rule.

Someone in mortgage arrears, who gets repossessed, is never going to get another mortgage again. Downsizing is not an option.

People in mortgage arrears more often than not will be able to negotiate some kind of payment plan with the bank. repossessions are the absolute last resort since its so hard to actually do them.

In this country, repossessions are overwhelmingly of people who refuse to pay rather than people who are struggling to pay.

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

10% vacant property tax would solve all current housing issues at no cost to the state IMO.

Aim it at companies where they are the beneficial owners of at least 3 residential properties. That way at least I’ll finally get to know how many of the vacant homes in Ireland the funds really own

Except the data to support your belief simply does not exist.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

I'm not sure this is accurate. This undoubtedly happens but I would say it's the exception rather than the rule.

Someone in mortgage arrears, who gets repossessed, is never going to get another mortgage again. Downsizing is not an option.

A simple change in the law would resolve that issue. Can’t pay your mortgage. Out in 3 months. But your credit rating is cleared in 12 months and your next mortgage application is based on your new financial circumstances in 12 months time.

Win-win for the economy. People are able to take risks without been held back by a previous failure or bad luck. Banks credit risks are aligned with the real economy. Less hassle and heartbreak all round?

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

Except the data to support your belief simply does not exist.

Maybe not explicitly but definitely implicitly IMO If I’m wrong then it won’t impact anyone. If I’m right, all problems solved. That’s if the powers that be truly want them resolved

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

A simple change in the law would resolve that issue. Can’t pay your mortgage. Out in 3 months. But your credit rating is cleared in 12 months and your next mortgage application is based on your new financial circumstances in 12 months time.

Win-win for the economy. People are able to take risks without been held back by a previous failure or bad luck. Banks credit risks are aligned with the real economy. Less hassle and heartbreak all round?

mortgage loans would have to be non recourse on this basis, which would push up the costs, but also lower banks risk appetites and hopefully dampen prices a little.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

mortgage loans would have to be non recourse on this basis, which would push up the costs, but also lower banks risk appetites and hopefully dampen prices a little.

Agreed. I think non recourse loans would solve a lot of problems for both borrowers and lenders.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Agreed. I think non recourse loans would solve a lot of problems for both borrowers and lenders.

its all very simple really, wont happen though

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Of course it is an option. If they are unable to afford a smaller mortgage, they downsize by renting a house that they can afford.

What is the problem with this? It seems to work just fine in every other country.

Sorry, I took downsize to mean sell the house and buy a cheaper one.

combat14

mortgage lending is facing a car crash style crisis if the government dont take action to stimulate competition in the sector

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Sorry, I took downsize to mean sell the house and buy a cheaper one.

Yep, I kind of understood that

My point was we've normalised the idea that it is OK just not to pay a mortgage because you can't afford because you don't want to rent a house.

It's bonkers.

c.p.w.g.w

schmittel wrote: »

Yep, I kind of understood that

My point was we've normalised the idea that it is OK just not to pay a mortgage because you can't afford because you don't want to rent a house.

It's bonkers.

The whole thing in bonkers...My Sister bought her house a few years back for a steal(100K-120K) so her mortgage is about 400-500...The same house had been previously rented out for 1,000 a month...Really shows the silly rents

Wanderer78

schmittel wrote: »

Yep, I kind of understood that

My point was we've normalised the idea that it is OK just not to pay a mortgage because you can't afford because you don't want to rent a house.

It's bonkers.

...and the really mad idea is that we think 'the market' is capable of solving all of this!

PropQueries

Bank of Ireland released their hybrid model yesterday and stated:

“Our network of remote working hubs will provide a real alternative to time and energy sapping commutes. The central office still has an important but different role to play – with large office buildings being redesigned to facilitate meetings and collaboration”

They also said: “We are going to see less of the old way of doing things, like travelling through rush hour to do something at the office that could easily have been done from home”.

On a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being full time in office to hybrid being 5 and full time WFH being 10, this looks like 8 or 9 to me anyway.

That looks like the bottom of Dublin City’s housing market pyramid scheme slowly being removed brick by brick, presuming even a few other companies follow suit IMO

Link to article on RTÉ here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0415/1209987-bank-of-ireland-hybrid-working-model/

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Yep, I kind of understood that

My point was we've normalised the idea that it is OK just not to pay a mortgage because you can't afford because you don't want to rent a house.

It's bonkers.

Speaking of which this lad crawled out from under his rock

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/ronan-ryan-puts-financial-woes-behind-him-and-starts-afresh-with-new-dublin-4french-themed-bakery-and-cafe-40310972.html

I was going to try it out tomorrow but have changed my mind. I’ll keep my few euro and pay some extra off my mortgage next week.

standardg60

Hubertj wrote: »

Speaking of which this lad crawled out from under his rock

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/ronan-ryan-puts-financial-woes-behind-him-and-starts-afresh-with-new-dublin-4french-themed-bakery-and-cafe-40310972.html

I was going to try it out tomorrow but have changed my mind. I’ll keep my few euro and pay some extra off my mortgage next week.

"His battle with vulture funds over his family home".

This is the sort of horsesh*te printed by a supposedly objective 'media' that has led to where we are.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Bank of Ireland released their hybrid model yesterday and stated:

“Our network of remote working hubs will provide a real alternative to time and energy sapping commutes. The central office still has an important but different role to play – with large office buildings being redesigned to facilitate meetings and collaboration”

They also said: “We are going to see less of the old way of doing things, like travelling through rush hour to do something at the office that could easily have been done from home”.

On a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being full time in office to hybrid being 5 and full time WFH being 10, this looks like 8 or 9 to me anyway.

That looks like the bottom of Dublin City’s housing market pyramid scheme slowly being removed brick by brick, presuming even a few other companies follow suit IMO

Link to article on RTÉ here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0415/1209987-bank-of-ireland-hybrid-working-model/

Are remote working hubs not offices ?

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

Bank of Ireland released their hybrid model yesterday and stated:

“Our network of remote working hubs will provide a real alternative to time and energy sapping commutes. The central office still has an important but different role to play – with large office buildings being redesigned to facilitate meetings and collaboration”

They also said: “We are going to see less of the old way of doing things, like travelling through rush hour to do something at the office that could easily have been done from home”.

On a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being full time in office to hybrid being 5 and full time WFH being 10, this looks like 8 or 9 to me anyway.

That looks like the bottom of Dublin City’s housing market pyramid scheme slowly being removed brick by brick, presuming even a few other companies follow suit IMO

Link to article on RTÉ here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0415/1209987-bank-of-ireland-hybrid-working-model/

Hybrid model is 2-3 days a week in office, like some companies are now doing

On a scale of 1 to 10 that's a 5

Other companies are doing longer shifts for only 3-4 days a week, with no WFH, so that would a zero


In addition to that you have all jobs that can't done from home which will resume as normal, and all jobs who were being done from home even before which will have no impact

Villa05

combat14 wrote:

mortgage lending is facing a car crash style crisis if the government dont take action to stimulate competition in the sector

Apparently BOI approached KBC with an offer they could not refuse according to Pearce Doherty on newstalk.

hometruths

The arrears stats are always worth a look.

There's a heap of detail in there, but basically there are just over 97,500 PDH mortgages classified as either in arrears over 90 days or restructured (we can assume that your mortgage is well past 90 days in arrears by the time you get into restructuring).

That is the guts of 100,000 second hand houses that in a normal market would have been sold either voluntarily by the owner realising that they could no longer afford such a house or repossessed and sold by the bank.

To put that into context - in the whole of 2019 a little over 45,000 second houses were sold.

So the arrears/restructured properties are the equivalent of two years supply. Which is quite a lot. IMO.

Re the fact that housing the occupants will become the states problem if the properties are repossessed: assuming each property houses 2.75 (national average) occupants that is almost 275,000 people who will be added to the housing list.

Is it plausible that there an additional 275k people who need social housing in addition to the high numbers who already receive it?

If it is plausible then maybe our economy is not in the rude health (pre Covid) we were led to believe.

1percent

Hi all ove been reading this thread for a while, diding I and out posting when I feel I have something to contribute.
Of the last few days the talk of lack of recouse for mortgage defaulters and previously the talk of lac of recouse for rent defaulters has me thinking, what if, and hear me out on this it could be a solution. What if we all just agreed to stop!

No rent payments, no mortgage payments we just stop! This would cause the system to have to be reset as long as we stuck to our guns.

There is a lot of complaining about those that do it and how they get away with it, why not break the system by joining them?

hometruths

1percent wrote: »

Hi all ove been reading this thread for a while, diding I and out posting when I feel I have something to contribute.
Of the last few days the talk of lack of recouse for mortgage defaulters and previously the talk of lac of recouse for rent defaulters has me thinking, what if, and hear me out on this it could be a solution. What if we all just agreed to stop!

No rent payments, no mortgage payments we just stop! This would cause the system to have to be reset as long as we stuck to our guns.

There is a lot of complaining about those that do it and how they get away with it, why not break the system by joining them?

This kind of thinking is an inevitable consequence of failing to tackle the problem 10 years ago.

Overview for this week
Another bank KBC leaving Ireland ?
PayPal reducing number of employes ?
Does not look like the property market will back to normal
We heading really tough times and the top heads of the banks ( KBC,Ulster,Bank of ireland ) already know that there will be no recovery soon
But keep spend your savings ! This should help economy
As property agents says Average savings ( 4000 per head ) should move property sales forward

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

The arrears stats are always worth a look.

There's a heap of detail in there, but basically there are just over 97,500 PDH mortgages classified as either in arrears over 90 days or restructured (we can assume that your mortgage is well past 90 days in arrears by the time you get into restructuring).

That is the guts of 100,000 second hand houses that in a normal market would have been sold either voluntarily by the owner realising that they could no longer afford such a house or repossessed and sold by the bank.

To put that into context - in the whole of 2019 a little over 45,000 second houses were sold.

So the arrears/restructured properties are the equivalent of two years supply. Which is quite a lot. IMO.

Re the fact that housing the occupants will become the states problem if the properties are repossessed: assuming each property houses 2.75 (national average) occupants that is almost 275,000 people who will be added to the housing list.

Is it plausible that there an additional 275k people who need social housing in addition to the high numbers who already receive it?

If it is plausible then maybe our economy is not in the rude health (pre Covid) we were led to believe.

Looking at the December 2020 report is it not 120k ish between arrears and restructured? 54,986 arrears + 72,866 restructured? Restructured is interesting - how sustainable are they, etc. Am I correct in thinking banks took a long time in coming around to restructuring which worsened the arrears? Is restructuring common in other countries?

I suppose the problem for some people was they lost their jobs for a period of time, spent all savings, fell into arrears, then they get a new job and have to start again. Mortgage repayments aren’t the problem, it’s the couple of years arrears that need to be addressed in some way.

I’d like to think the can pay won’t pay, stay as long as possible without paying is a small % but I keep coming back to Irish people not being good at personal responsibility

jill_valentine

Cyrus wrote: »

Are remote working hubs not offices ?

A lot of bank branches, especially older ones, have space out back that's not in active use anymore thanks to the moves away from retail banking and paper.

My guess is they mean to designate some of their bigger town branches as hubs that non-customer facing staff can work out of, squirrelled away in the back while the bank operates as normal. A friend of mine had been involved in a kind of pilot scheme to that effect for another bank pre covid and it was pretty popular.

jill_valentine

jill_valentine wrote: »

A lot of bank branches, especially older ones, have space out back that's not in active use anymore thanks to the moves away from retail banking and paper.

My guess is they mean to designate some of their bigger town branches as hubs that non-customer facing staff can work out of. A friend of mine had been involved in a kind of pilot scheme to that effect for another bank pre covid and it was pretty popular.

The banking and credit union main problem is People Does Not apply for loan !
They has No job and no money !
This problem was already on list in 2019 before Covid !
The ECB put rates below Zero in certain cases and banks still can not earn because nobody does not take loans !
One guy was applying 4 times to Bank of Ireland for loan to buy BMW and week ago Bank of Ireland gave him loan
Property market is dead because there is no buyers on market anymore.Banks closing them branches ! The only Bank of Ireland closing 103 branches !
The Ulster bank leaving Ireland the KBC second in queue !
Why banks leaving if there is so much mortgage approvals ? Why banks selling them loans and leaving country if there is so bright future on property markets ?

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Looking at the December 2020 report is it not 120k ish between arrears and restructured? 54,986 arrears + 72,866 restructured? Restructured is interesting - how sustainable are they, etc. Am I correct in thinking banks took a long time in coming around to restructuring which worsened the arrears? Is restructuring common in other countries?

I suppose the problem for some people was they lost their jobs for a period of time, spent all savings, fell into arrears, then they get a new job and have to start again. Mortgage repayments aren’t the problem, it’s the couple of years arrears that need to be addressed in some way.

I’d like to think the can pay won’t pay, stay as long as possible without paying is a small % but I keep coming back to Irish people not being good at personal responsibility

If you look at the restructures section there is Chunk counted as both in arrears and restructured, which is why I excluded them.

A few years ago the banks were all quizzed on the subject of arrears by an committee, and the put the estimates of strategic default at about 25%.

Browney7

schmittel wrote: »

If you look at the restructures section there is Chunk counted as both in arrears and restructured, which is why I excluded them.

A few years ago the banks were all quizzed on the subject of arrears by an committee, and the put the estimates of strategic default at about 25%.

Whatever about the PDH classification, over 2000 BTL mortgages out of just under 98k are in arrears of over 10 years. If ever there was low hanging fruit.... indeed the number has increased from 1500 last December which is a significant increase in one year

1percent

schmittel wrote: »

This kind of thinking is an inevitable consequence of failing to tackle the problem 10 years ago.

Now there is a touch of touge in cheek with my post but if this is the system we are working in, why not play the game?

mcsean2163

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The banking and credit union main problem is People Does Not apply for loan !
They has No job and no money !
This problem was already on list in 2019 before Covid !
The ECB put rates below Zero in certain cases and banks still can not earn because nobody does not take loans !
One guy was applying 4 times to Bank of Ireland for loan to buy BMW and week ago Bank of Ireland gave him loan
Property market is dead because there is no buyers on market anymore.Banks closing them branches ! The only Bank of Ireland closing 103 branches !
The Ulster bank leaving Ireland the KBC second in queue !
Why banks leaving if there is so much mortgage approvals ? Why banks selling them loans and leaving country if there is so bright future on property markets ?

https://www.learngrammar.net/english-grammar