2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Wanderer78

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah maybe but they are also a drain on current spend this money could of been used in other areas right now and over the last decade or so. We should not of been on the hook for any of the debt accumulated pre-covid. The borrowings for covid makes sense as we would of had to pay a lot of money out for social welfare and for redundancies if the government had not supported the economy anyway, but borrowing to bail out banks, to pay public servants more money then we can afford not to mention the knock on effect to their pensions and to give people on social welfare so much money that it competes with the low paying jobs available in the country. That did not make a lick of sense.

hello hello! bail out money was used to pay bond holders, nothing to do with public servants! welfare budgets partially rose due to rising unemployment, partially due to the policies implemented including austerity measures! what didnt make sense was how the fcuk was implementing austerity measures in the public sector, when the financial issues were primarily based in the private sector! wtf!

Cyrus

Browney7 wrote: »

Have you read the plan and submissions to determine the "maximum reasonable level of density the site can take"?

http://www.sdublincoco.ie/Meetings/Agenda/1997?p=1 item H-I (10) chief executives report contains all submissions/observations. One of the submissions made by a resident cited "the only piece of green space in the entire Lindisfarne estate". I've no clue as to the accuracy of this contention. Traffic management also seemed to be resident's concerns.

Gino Kenny (PBP) opposed the building of more houses in the area on the green space. Nearby St Cuthbert's park was cited as being "plagued by issues". Reading councillor Francis Timmons submission on the proposal, it's clear scramblers and quads are an issue.

O'Broin and SF framed their submission as a compromise. They explained their rationale for the develooment being for older people would free up family homes in the area.

From searching the councillors for the clondalkin area, it appears no FF, FG or green councillor made any submission at all nor did Emer Higgins the FG TD for Dublin mid west.

Like everything related to politics in Ireland, "other side bad, my side good". Another way of spinning Philip Ryan's piece is that it is a proposed hatchet job on the guy "who wrote the book on housing" (David McManus SDCC FG councillor) by a journalist who wrote the book on Leo (Leo, A very modern Taoiseach).

no matter what the development wherever it is you will have 'locals' voting against it, too much traffic, too dense, taking up green space etc etc.

If it was in donnybrook you can be sure O'Broin and his pals in PBP would be up in arms, but when its local to them its different.

Timing belt

Browney7 wrote: »

Have you read the plan and submissions to determine the "maximum reasonable level of density the site can take"?

http://www.sdublincoco.ie/Meetings/Agenda/1997?p=1 item H-I (10) chief executives report contains all submissions/observations. One of the submissions made by a resident cited "the only piece of green space in the entire Lindisfarne estate". I've no clue as to the accuracy of this contention. Traffic management also seemed to be resident's concerns.

Car's are always burned out on that stretch of road from Joy-ridding...

Buses regularly refuse to drive into Bawnouge/Deansrath due to the anti-social behaviour....

It just seems funny to complain about traffic from a handful of houses.

Personally I would have thought there was much more traffic near the other site as it is more built up and has schools on its doorstep.

The last time they built in the area the builders had to leave and would not come back to the site till CCTV with a direct feed to the Garda Station was set up and a proper Garda presence all because of a 'Fencing Business' being Run by a notorious drug dealer from Ballyfermot. Protection money and DCC just paid it for years!!

The real reason is more than likely down to the impact on Drug dealing as last time they built in the area it caused issues when they had to relocate their business.

I still laugh at the way Mark Ward SF described it at the time ' “it was like a scene out of The Wire – you could see the drug dealing from the scramblers in broad daylight'

https://www.thejournal.ie/st-cuthberts-park-housing-4336078-Nov2018/

JimmyVik

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It shows O'Brion and SF as having double standards. The plan was for 20+ social housing. They want it moved to another site.......where. as well the objectors suggest that 14 bungalow's are build for older people. This is total NIMBYism. It a small social housing project and a SF TD objects to it.

SF are absolutely sh!tting it that they might have to actually run the country after the next election.
Then it will be time to sh!t or get off the pot for them.
I see mega failure ahead for them if they actually have to do anything but moan about what everyone else is doing.

Hubertj

Cyrus wrote: »

no matter what the development wherever it is you will have 'locals' voting against it, too much traffic, too dense, taking up green space etc etc.

If it was in donnybrook you can be sure O'Broin and his pals in PBP would be up in arms, but when its local to them its different.

They wouldn’t be up in arms if it was in Donnybrook. They would be fully in favour of it and on a massive scale.

Wanderer78

JimmyVik wrote: »

SF are absolutely sh!tting it that they might have to actually run the country after the next election.
Then it will be time to sh!t or get off the pot for them.
I see mega failure ahead for them if they actually have to do anything but moan about what everyone else is doing.

if they manage to be elected in next time around, i suspect theyll actually have very little abilities to change much, our political systems are not particularly designed for traditional left leaning thinking, and our predominant government parties, primarily ffg, have shown, its possible for them to govern from outside of government, i.e. confidence and supply

fliball123

Wanderer78 wrote: »

hello hello! bail out money was used to pay bond holders, nothing to do with public servants! welfare budgets partially rose due to rising unemployment, partially due to the policies implemented including austerity measures! what didnt make sense was how the fcuk was implementing austerity measures in the public sector, when the financial issues were primarily based in the private sector! wtf!

We borrowed 210Billion pre coved about 60 Billion maybe even less with the evaluation of the banks that the Irish own as in we sold our shares in AIB and BOI it would bring that 60 Billion down . The other 150 Billion was borrowed to pay ps pay / pensions and welfare. So sorry to burst your bubble but that is how the borrowing brakes down pre covid.

As for the austerity measures even with the so called cuts to public sector pay, pay rises were still going on through increments as well as one of the cuts an actual contribution to a defined benefit their pension (a benefit a lot of us in the private sector could not afford) as well as no one losing their job in the sector all redundancies were voluntary and a lot of them came with a golden handshake.

Look we are getting off track. I simply made the statement that the 210 Billion borrowed pre covid that 150Billion was due to the payments made to ps pay/pension and welfare. I never said the bailout was due to the PS with the exception of the politicians and the banking regulator who seemed to be asleep at the wheel.

So I agree the banking bailout (60 billion) was all private sector / Government and bank regulators fault
The other 150 Billion was all PS and welfare.

JimmyVik

Wanderer78 wrote: »

if they manage to be elected in next time around, i suspect theyll actually have very little abilities to change much, our political systems are not particularly designed for traditional left leaning thinking, and our predominant government parties, primarily ffg, have shown, its possible for them to govern from outside of government, i.e. confidence and supply

That gives me a chuckle.

Excuses for them already even before they are in power.
The party who are the quickest out of the block to moan about everyone else.

Cyrus

Hubertj wrote: »

They wouldn’t be up in arms if it was in Donnybrook. They would be fully in favour of it and on a massive scale.

sorry what i meant is they would be up in arms if locals and local politicians were opposing a social scheme.

Wanderer78

fliball123 wrote: »

We borrowed 210Billion pre coved about 60 Billion maybe even less with the evaluation of the banks that the Irish own as in we sold our shares in AIB and BOI it would bring that 60 Billion down . The other 150 Billion was borrowed to pay ps pay / pensions and welfare. So sorry to burst your bubble but that is how the borrowing brakes down pre covid.

As for the austerity measures even with the so called cuts to public sector pay, pay rises were still going on through increments as well as one of the cuts an actual contribution to a defined benefit their pension (a benefit a lot of us in the private sector could not afford) as well as no one losing their job in the sector all redundancies were voluntary and a lot of them came with a golden handshake.

Look we are getting off track. I simply made the statement that the 210 Billion borrowed pre covid that 150Billion was due to the payments made to ps pay/pension and welfare. I never said the bailout was due to the PS with the exception of the politicians and the banking regulator who seemed to be asleep at the wheel.

So I agree the banking bailout (60 billion) was all private sector / Government and bank regulators fault
The other 150 Billion was all PS and welfare.

...and yes, again, imposing austerity in fact lead to job losses in both the public and private sectors, as neither sector exists in a vacuum, a reduction in one leads to a reduction in the other, it does not work in the way the books say it does, as they have a symbiotic relationship, as does the money supply in both, hence why growing deficits are critical right now. this all neatly wraps up into our current property issues, i.e. this is all very very relevant to the discussion

Wanderer78

JimmyVik wrote: »

That gives me a chuckle.

Excuses for them already even before they are in power.
The party who are the quickest out of the block to moan about everyone else.

oh watch it happen...... all of us are gonna get a rode awakening when these type of outcomes occurring, globally, we re currently defaulting politically, globally, with virtually no changes

fliball123

Wanderer78 wrote: »

...and yes, again, imposing austerity in fact lead to job losses in both the public and private sectors, as neither sector exists in a vacuum, a reduction in one leads to a reduction in the other, it does not work in the way the books say it does, as they have a symbiotic relationship, as does the money supply in both, hence why growing deficits are critical right now. this all neatly wraps up into our current property issues, i.e. this is all very very relevant to the discussion

The crash of 08 seen a big difference in how it dealt with the private sector and public sector. Private sector were let hit the wall. This time around they are giving the private sector the same cushion the public sector got in 08 and rightly so. Just one issue I have with your symbolic relationship. A lot of countries around the world pay in the private sector is a lot higher than the public sector. This is not the case in this country and we have to pay for this via our taxation. I have no bother with a deficit just in how the money was spent.

Wanderer78

fliball123 wrote: »

The crash of 08 seen a big difference in how it dealt with the private sector and public sector. Private sector were let hit the wall. This time around they are giving the private sector the same cushion the public sector got in 08 and rightly so. Just one issue I have with your symbolic relationship. A lot of countries around the world pay in the private sector is a lot higher than the public sector. This is not the case in this country and we have to pay for this via our taxation. I have no bother with a deficit just in how the money was spent.

the private sector is in serious trouble right now, in particular sme's, theyre deeply exposed now, baring in mind, the majority of our labour forced is employed by them, si id have to somewhat disagree with you there, and what has our government offered to them, the ability to borrow more, wtf! some private sector industries pay significantly more than public sector jobs, so not entirely true. but paye workers are generally the ones most exposed, its absolutely disgraceful and dangerous. but pointing the fingers at the public sector in general wont achieve much, we re in a lot of trouble here

JimmyVik

Wanderer78 wrote: »

oh watch it happen...... all of us are gonna get a rode awakening when these type of outcomes occurring, globally, we re currently defaulting politically, globally, with virtually no changes

A bit dramatic dont you think

Wanderer78

JimmyVik wrote: »

A bit dramatic dont you think

nope, sit back and watch, people have had enough, hence trump, brexit, etc etc

fliball123

Wanderer78 wrote: »

the private sector is in serious trouble right now, in particular sme's, theyre deeply exposed now, baring in mind, the majority of our labour forced is employed by them, si id have to somewhat disagree with you there, and what has our government offered to them, the ability to borrow more, wtf! some private sector industries pay significantly more than public sector jobs, so not entirely true. but paye workers are generally the ones most exposed, its absolutely disgraceful and dangerous. but pointing the fingers at the public sector in general wont achieve much, we re in a lot of trouble here

I am not pointing a finger at the public sector. I am just putting facts out there that people moaning constantly about our debt and saying it was all the big bad banks fault dont realise that a very high proportion of our debt would of been there anyway even if we didn't have to bail out the banks. I am not defending the banks either they were an absolute disgrace.

average wage in the public sector is higher than the private sector

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/private-sector-pay-rising-faster-than-public-sector-but-wages-are-still-lower-38155326.html#:~:text=the%20same%20timeframe.-,A%20private%20sector%20worker's%20average%20pay%20rose%20from%20%E2%82%AC685,50%2C320%20a%20year%20%2D%2035pc%20more.&text=He%20said%20the%20impact%20of,the%20pick%20up%20in%20pay.


Anyway we are getting off topic. Back to property

Wanderer78

fliball123 wrote: »

I am not pointing a finger at the public sector. I am just putting facts out there that people moaning constantly about our debt and saying it was all the big bad banks fault dont realise that a very high proportion of our debt would of been there anyway even if we didn't have to bail out the banks. I am not defending the banks either they were an absolute disgrace.

average wage in the public sector is higher than the private sector

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/private-sector-pay-rising-faster-than-public-sector-but-wages-are-still-lower-38155326.html#:~:text=the%20same%20timeframe.-,A%20private%20sector%20worker's%20average%20pay%20rose%20from%20%E2%82%AC685,50%2C320%20a%20year%20%2D%2035pc%20more.&text=He%20said%20the%20impact%20of,the%20pick%20up%20in%20pay.

Anyway we are getting off topic. Back to property

...again, all of this is directly related to property, it is in fact one of our most critical of needs....

yes, your facts are correct, but a significant proportion of our national debt is still directly related to the previous crash, and we actually havent accepted, it has actually largely failed, policies implemented have largely failed, including our policies related to property. a significant proportion of our debt probably wouldnt have existed, due to the measures implemented, as discussed

Timing belt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

the private sector is in serious trouble right now, in particular sme's, theyre deeply exposed now, baring in mind, the majority of our labour forced is employed by them, si id have to somewhat disagree with you there, and what has our government offered to them, the ability to borrow more, wtf! some private sector industries pay significantly more than public sector jobs, so not entirely true. but paye workers are generally the ones most exposed, its absolutely disgraceful and dangerous. but pointing the fingers at the public sector in general wont achieve much, we re in a lot of trouble here

we will have a stock market crash to deal with as well based on these figures

Wanderer78

Timing belt wrote: »

we will have a stock market crash to deal with as well based on these figures

yup, possible, we ve no clue really, we cannot be absolutely certain

Timing belt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

yup, possible, we ve no clue really, we cannot be absolutely certain

We can be 100% that a crash is coming but we don't know when or what will prick the bubble.

Wanderer78

Timing belt wrote: »

We can be 100% that a crash is coming but we don't know when or what will prick the bubble.

or what bubble(s) will burst

Timing belt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

or what bubble(s) will burst

Yes bubbles in all assets thanks to QE... The fact that CBI adopted lending rules before the rest of world will help shield Ireland as we don't have a bubble in housing.

Wanderer78

Timing belt wrote: »

Yes bubbles in all assets thanks to QE... The fact that CBI adopted lending rules before the rest of world will help shield Ireland as we don't have a bubble in housing.

its hard to know, we re deep in unknown territory, nobody truly knows, and id argue, cbi rules have only truly blocked some access to the market, but the market actually still has access to effectively infinite credit, but you could be right

Vikings

Wanderer78 wrote: »

nope, sit back and watch, people have had enough, hence trump, brexit, etc etc

And as we all know, they have been wildly successful ventures, right?

Timing belt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

its hard to know, we re deep in unknown territory, nobody truly knows, and id argue, cbi rules have only truly blocked some access to the market, but the market actually still has access to effectively infinite credit, but you could be right

Yes there is institutional investors that have joined the market but they are only competing with other institutional investors so not pushing the price to high.... That will change no as they look for yield in the year ahead.. They will outbid each other to get their hands on the property

Wanderer78

Vikings wrote: »

And as we all know, they have been wildly successful ventures, right?

...and this is only the beginning!

Wanderer78

Timing belt wrote: »

Yes there is institutional investors that have joined the market but they are only competing with other institutional investors so not pushing the price to high.... That will change no as they look for yield in the year ahead.. They will outbid each other to get their hands on the property

property prices seem to be continually rising in my region, so im not convinced of them settling anytime soon, thank god incomes are rising in proportion!

Idbatterim

Wanderer78 wrote: »

....again, we ve been engaging in policies for a long time now that continually encourage asset price inflation, particularly in relation to property and land, and we have a refusal to implement wealth taxes in relation to these assets, you ll find most welfare classes own fcuk all assets........ it is a common outcome in so called free market economies, that taxation moves from these asset ownership classes, towards working classes, in particular what we call, 'middle classes'......

yeah, you are spot on with this. Its what they were saying in the documentary I linked too. this is true the world over, but in ireland, it is taken to an extreme in my opinion, with taxation disproportionately hammering those with a slightly better ability to pay. the irish situation is, if they earn a tiny bit more, hammer them! The issue as I see it is though, you have the "poor" here, but everything handed to them, you have the other working poor, living a stressful, you could argue a worse standard of living. Imagine covid hits and you are repaying a 600k mortgage on a modest house OR you have your forever home, you pay a token gesture pittance on, mentally, to not be shackled to huge amounts of debt and do some cash in hand work etc.

If it takes another SF surge to force FFG into action or SF get in and actually do something about it (would really put them on the spot if they get voted in on pretty much housing, given all their talk) or SF get in and **** hits the fan and it might take this to start getting the ridiculous setup here addressed, SF get in, cause economic problems, but SF in that case, were given the keys to power by FFG, by their refusal to address a serious serious issue for hundreds of thousands. Either way its going to be fascinating to see where all of this end us. It a moral disgrace, the way nearly the entire tax burden is foisted on working peasants, to send endless supplies of wealth back to the top, paying as good as no taxes, while working peasant loses half the salary over a pittance of 35k!

The situation in ireland is unique in a way and it is a total and utter disgrace!

We have a relatively tiny elderly population, no military spend! This coming budget and the following ones are going to be very, very interesting!

Idbatterim

this highlights the disgrace, after a few years of a boom here that ended last year, you can now earn up to E35,000 before being hammered with the marginal rate. They didnt touch income tax bands in budget 2019 and I dont think they did in 2018 either, despite the boom. But something something rewarding work! :rolleyes:

Hubertj

Idbatterim wrote: »

this highlights the disgrace, after a few years of a boom here that ended last year, you can now earn up to E35,000 before being hammered with the marginal rate. They didnt touch income tax bands in budget 2019 and I dont think they did in 2018 either, despite the boom. But something something rewarding work! :rolleyes:

American chamber have been hammering this point home for years. Difficult to keep attracting FDI with bat sh*t crazy tax brackets and then the higher cost of living dumped in..... Sinn Fein want to make this worse if they get into power which will not only force FDI elsewhere but also drive MMC jobs out of the country. This will have a knock on effect in the demand for property etc.
Tax base has to be broadened but in our wonderful populist world those on the left won’t stand for it.