2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Cal4567

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/cuckoo-funds-housing-market-5416160-Apr2021/

Social Democrats, who since last year's election, have more TDs now and can start to use their time and resources on issues of national importance such as Housing.

Eoin O'Broin has been exemplary in highlighting these points. If SF is still a problem for some, having the Social Democrats reining in, can't be at all bad.

The FF intervention by backbench TDs could almost be a Waterford Whispers piece.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Sounds like a Waterford native getting all defensive at their river being called a stream!

Not a local at all. I'd say a native would have been nowhere near as polite as me!

I was just amused, as its setting by the Blackwater (and fishing rights) is one of its strongest selling points to the target market. Entertaining to see it so casually dismissed as a stream! (albeit by somebody who is not the target market)

Villa05

Thomasirl123 wrote:

This is an extra 1,400 home purchases, and is despite buyers not being able to physically view properties they are considering buying.

One would have thought that Davy stockbrokers would be keeping their heads down in light of the shocking mismanagement at their institution. I suppose no entity is too corrupt to be pumping the property market. Once their doing that, all is grand

I'm surprised they actually found someone with an ounce of credibility to be widely referenced in the media

Ireland is surely a white collar crime paradise

hometruths

Cal4567 wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/cuckoo-funds-housing-market-5416160-Apr2021/

Social Democrats, who since last year's election, have more TDs now and can start to use their time and resources on issues of national importance such as Housing.

Eoin O'Broin has been exemplary in highlighting these points. If SF is still a problem for some, having the Social Democrats reining in, can't be at all bad.

The FF intervention by backbench TDs could almost be a Waterford Whispers piece.

There is an opportunity for SDs to take the housing bull by the horns and propose some radical alternatives, I think it would pay off well for them at next election if they ran enough candidates.

There will a lot of disaffected FG/FF voters who currently do not have a lot of palatable options of who to vote for if SDs only run a handful of candidates.

Interestingly, in the article he says:

According to the Construction Industry Federation, in 2019, 95% of new apartments were sold to institutions, leaving just 5% for everyone else.

The stats on who is buying what seem to be all over the place as far as I can see.

Browney7

Thomasirl123 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/surge-in-home-purchases-despite-lockdown-restrictions-40342950.html

Quote:There were more than 13,100 homes bought in the first three months of this year compared with the same quarter last year.

Wow I thought, an extra 13k house bought! Then I read the next paragraph:

This is an extra 1,400 home purchases, and is despite buyers not being able to physically view properties they are considering buying.

The properties "sold" in Jan, Feb and March are likely to have been negotiated in November December (when we were open for business and a large number of approved buyers were floating about) and January. Traditionally, Nov and Dec are quiet times for viewing and selling properties and so the 2020 Jan and Feb numbers Davy are comparing to will reflect the "old normal". The volumes in April May and June will be interesting to see relative to 2020.

Re councils and funds purchasing, the HPM02 data on the CSO site shows approx 2k purchases by "non household buyers" in Jan and Feb

JimmyVik

schmittel wrote: »

There is an opportunity for SDs to take the housing bull by the horns and propose some radical alternatives, I think it would pay off well for them at next election if they ran enough candidates.

There will a lot of disaffected FG/FF voters who currently do not have a lot of palatable options of who to vote for if SDs only run a handful of candidates.

Interestingly, in the article he says:



The stats on who is buying what seem to be all over the place as far as I can see.

At least ordinary buyers still have 5% of the total available stock at any time to fight over.

Browney7

schmittel wrote: »

There is an opportunity for SDs to take the housing bull by the horns and propose some radical alternatives, I think it would pay off well for them at next election if they ran enough candidates.

There will a lot of disaffected FG/FF voters who currently do not have a lot of palatable options of who to vote for if SDs only run a handful of candidates.

Interestingly, in the article he says:



The stats on who is buying what seem to be all over the place as far as I can see.

Re the stats, everyone is picking and choosing stats - who knows what the CIF are collecting for example? Does it include apartments tendered and built by REITs or only apartments started by independent developers/builders who then got approached the REITs and funds for example to sell in bulk.

Even when people have stats on properties for sale on daft as an example - is this number of ads or do daft know how many properties are in each ad for new developments?

DataDude

Seems like half of Dalkey has gone up for sale over the last 72 hours. This is the pick of the bunch.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/seaspray-harbour-road-dalkey-co-dublin-a96-dk57/4496755

Browney7

Thomasirl123 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/surge-in-home-purchases-despite-lockdown-restrictions-40342950.html

Quote:There were more than 13,100 homes bought in the first three months of this year compared with the same quarter last year.

Wow I thought, an extra 13k house bought! Then I read the next paragraph:

This is an extra 1,400 home purchases, and is despite buyers not being able to physically view properties they are considering buying.

Also, in that article Daft are quoted as having 12000 properties for sale on March 1. The "live" national number today is 15491 which whilst still low, is 30% higher. Caveat being I've no clue whether the 2 numbers are exactly comparable with "sold" or "sale agreed" or stale ads needing to be excluded for example.

Browney7

DataDude wrote: »

Seems like half of Dalkey has gone up for sale over the last 72 hours. This is the pick of the bunch.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/seaspray-harbour-road-dalkey-co-dublin-a96-dk57/4496755

Swish pad. You'd love to know who's selling it and why!

flexcon

(First time buyer)

Saw this place and thought - Not bad. Still high priced based on the area, but I'd consider it

Asking €305,000.
Sale agreed at €370,000.

WTF. I'm tired of this game. Covid has messed up any chance of the heat being taken off this bull run on house prices. Stuffed
Even as a FTB I get 30K on a new build. There is no new builds that are even reasonable. Oh well.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-10-rocklands-carrigtwohill-co-cork/2577743

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

Looks like the local county councils and state have been busy

Except the article doesn't even hint at that.

You need to stop trying to use articles that do not support your beliefs as support for them. Permanently.

Loverlyhorse

DataDude wrote: »

Seems like half of Dalkey has gone up for sale over the last 72 hours. This is the pick of the bunch.

myhome.ie/residential/brochure/seaspray-harbour-road-dalkey-co-dublin-a96-dk57/4496755

With rising sea levels, it'll prob be under water in the next decade. Good luck getting home insurance on that. Could be why they're selling.

Browney7

flexcon wrote: »

(First time buyer)

Saw this place and thought - Not bad. Still high priced based on the area, but I'd consider it

Asking €305,000.
Sale agreed at €370,000.

WTF. I'm tired of this game. Covid has messed up any chance of the heat being taken off this bull run on house prices. Stuffed
Even as a FTB I get 30K on a new build. There is no new builds that are even reasonable. Oh well.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-10-rocklands-carrigtwohill-co-cork/2577743

Considering number 39 sold for 315k and the finishing and furnishings don't look terrible compared to number 10, 370k is a very strong price and is a 20% jump although they look to have built a room off the kitchen to the back?

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

Seems like half of Dalkey has gone up for sale over the last 72 hours. This is the pick of the bunch.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/seaspray-harbour-road-dalkey-co-dublin-a96-dk57/4496755

a pretty ordinary house in an extra ordinary location!

there is a little gated estate of a half dozen houses down on harbour road not far from the loreto.

Imagine waking up to that view every day!

L1011

Browney7 wrote: »

Also, in that article Daft are quoted as having 12000 properties for sale on March 1. The "live" national number today is 15491 which whilst still low, is 30% higher. Caveat being I've no clue whether the 2 numbers are exactly comparable with "sold" or "sale agreed" or stale ads needing to be excluded for example.

The Daft numbers are not even a reliable figure, as a new development will often have a handful of listings - one per type - where each listing can be for anything from zero (all that type are sold and they forgot the listing - this is more common than it should be) to triple figures of units.

RichardAnd

flexcon wrote: »

WTF. I'm tired of this game. Covid has messed up any chance of the heat being taken off this bull run on house prices. Stuffed
Even as a FTB I get 30K on a new build. There is no new builds that are even reasonable. Oh well.[/url]

Covid didn't do this; the state's handling of Covid did this. Politicians and the civil servants suits who run the state will blame Covid, but the responsibility for this disruption to the market rests squarely at their feet.

Browney7

L1011 wrote: »

The Daft numbers are not even a reliable figure, as a new development will often have a handful of listings - one per type - where each listing can be for anything from zero (all that type are sold and they forgot the listing - this is more common than it should be) to triple figures of units.

Agreed, I alluded to as much a few posts back

Mic 1972

Loverlyhorse wrote: »

With rising sea levels, it'll prob be under water in the next decade. Good luck getting home insurance on that. Could be why they're selling.

The sea levels aren't going to rise that much!

flexcon

RichardAnd wrote: »

Covid didn't do this; the state's handling of Covid did this. Politicians and the civil servants suits who run the state will blame Covid, but the responsibility for this disruption to the market rests squarely at their feet.

Ah no I agree there, I meant help take the heat off the bull run on pricing. Because right now, there is lack of supply, but actual demand. Not some hype.

I've never been wealthier (in a sense) many first time buyers unaffected by Covid and have just saved.

It's the perfect storm where second hand houses are now in fashion again for first time buyers on combined incomes of 100K, where as 2 years ago the HTB scheme would have made that a bad deal.

Also I am speaking from an amateur sense, I have no idea here if I am spouting nonsense.

Marcusm

Cyrus wrote: »

a pretty ordinary house in an extra ordinary location!

there is a little gated estate of a half dozen houses down on harbour road not far from the loreto.

Imagine waking up to that view every day!

Knock it down and build a small terrace of 3-4 houses each with 3 stories and glorious views would further abound.

Loverlyhorse

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The sea levels aren't going to rise that much!

Haha but sure its nearly under water already though! Won't take much!

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

There is an opportunity for SDs to take the housing bull by the horns and propose some radical alternatives, I think it would pay off well for them at next election if they ran enough candidates.

There will a lot of disaffected FG/FF voters who currently do not have a lot of palatable options of who to vote for if SDs only run a handful of candidates.

Interestingly, in the article he says:



The stats on who is buying what seem to be all over the place as far as I can see.

I couldn’t disagree more on the SDs. After their performance in relation to 0 Covid and internment (MHQ) they are attempting to bring populism to a new level. To me, they have no credibility.
Having said that, I think Catherine Murphy is an excellent politician and holds the government to account in a constructive manner.

Cyrus

Marcusm wrote: »

Knock it down and build a small terrace of 3-4 houses each with 3 stories and glorious views would further abound.

one would imagine some pretty strong planning objections from the other 5 houses

Marcusm

Cyrus wrote: »

lots of movemment on cunningham road

this is beyond ambitious IMO

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/seaview-8-cunningham-drive-dalkey-co-dublin/4496685

Some of your neighbours are getting very ambitious. I cannot see Seaview getting anywhere near that price. Kerb appeal is very low; the interiors are not bad but they just seem poorly done to me. The rear garden has lots of seating areas but agin seems odd. Overall, not. A patch on Sheemote.

RichardAnd

flexcon wrote: »

Ah no I agree there, I meant help take the heat off the bull run on pricing. Because right now, there is lack of supply, but actual demand. Not some hype.

I've never been wealthier (in a sense) many first time buyers unaffected by Covid and have just saved.

It's the perfect storm where second hand houses are now in fashion again for first time buyers on combined incomes of 100K, where as 2 years ago the HTB scheme would have made that a bad deal.

Also I am speaking from an amateur sense, I have no idea here if I am spouting nonsense.

I'm quite the amateur myself!

To me, it doesn't seem like a good move to get involved in buy at this precise moment. As you right point out, there is a lot of cash chasing a constrained supply, and the lack of physical viewings is only exacerbating this.

Maybe things will improve in a few months, but then again, they could also get worse. For now, I'll sit and wait and hope for the best.

PropQueries

RichardAnd wrote: »

Covid didn't do this; the state's handling of Covid did this. Politicians and the civil servants suits who run the state will blame Covid, but the responsibility for this disruption to the market rests squarely at their feet.

I’m still banking on the states involvement in buying/leasing/renting stopping c. mid year.

All depends on the outcome of those global tax reforms. While it’s a slight gamble, I would advise any buyer (if they can wait) to wait until c. July to see where it’s heading.

If John Fitzgerald’s scenario in the Irish Times of the state potentially losing €6 billion per year turns out to be right and the state is forced to pull back from buying/leasing/renting, private buyers should have much more bargaining power IMO

To put the figure in perspective, it’s almost twice this years total housing budget and Pascal will be forced to have a mini-budget as the media will be asking serious questions about the governments revenue forecasts if John Fitzgerald is anywhere near correct IMO

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I couldn’t disagree more on the SDs. After their performance in relation to 0 Covid and internment (MHQ) they are attempting to bring populism to a new level. To me, they have no credibility.
Having said that, I think Catherine Murphy is an excellent politician and holds the government to account in a constructive manner.

I find their current crop of TDs articulate and on the whole well informed on their briefs when interviewed - eg Holly Cairns.

Fair enough you're not a fan of the party, but put yourself in the shoes of a 30 year old would be FTBer struggling trying to save to buy whilst high rents are pushing prices ever further out of your reach.

Assuming you think that FF/FG will just be more of the same policies. Who do you vote for?

Cal4567

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The sea levels aren't going to rise that much!

No but I do wonder if some so close to the water are beginning to get a tad concerned. 1990 seems just a hop, skip and a jump away now, what will 2051 look like?

I just wonder if these house values direct to a sea view have now maxed out.

It could just be those trying to exploit the market as it is at the moment. Not that easy selling at the top end, usually very few buyers, with the means to offer on these.

awec

DataDude wrote: »

Seems like half of Dalkey has gone up for sale over the last 72 hours. This is the pick of the bunch.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/seaspray-harbour-road-dalkey-co-dublin-a96-dk57/4496755

I think that garden is going to be freezing cold almost all year. Absolutely no protection from any elements.

Also that kitchen....