2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I find their current crop of TDs articulate and on the whole well informed on their briefs when interviewed - eg Holly Cairns.

Fair enough you're not a fan of the party, but put yourself in the shoes of a 30 year old would be FTBer struggling trying to save to buy whilst high rents are pushing prices ever further out of your reach.

Assuming you think that FF/FG will just be more of the same policies. Who do you vote for?

Therein lies the problem. From my perspective currently no party has the answer. Opposition parties are proposing “solutions” that do not fix the systemic issues with construction/housing/rents/mortgage rates/etc. People will protest vote, some will believe what they are selling but it won’t fix things. In my opinion it will take 5-10 years to resolve all the challenges.
I much prefer talking about nice big houses

Cal4567

PropQueries wrote: »

I’m still banking on the states involvement in buying/leasing/renting stopping c. mid year.

All depends on the outcome of those global tax reforms. While it’s a slight gamble, I would advise any buyer (if they can wait) to wait until c. July to see where it’s heading.

If John Fitzgerald’s scenario in the Irish Times of the state potentially losing €6 billion per year turns out to be right and the state is forced to pull back from buying/leasing/renting, private buyers should have much more bargaining power IMO

To put the figure in perspective, it’s almost twice this years total housing budget and Pascal will be forced to have a mini-budget as the media will be asking serious questions about the governments revenue forecasts if John Fitzgerald is anywhere near correct IMO

Could you provide a link to that, as I cannot see it anywhere. Thanks.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Therein lies the problem. From my perspective currently no party has the answer. Opposition parties are proposing “solutions” that do not fix the systemic issues with construction/housing/rents/mortgage rates/etc. People will protest vote, some will believe what they are selling but it won’t fix things. In my opinion it will take 5-10 years to resolve all the challenges.
I much prefer talking about nice big houses

Thats my point. The votes are there for the taking and currently nobody offering solutions that are radical enough to have an impact. It's all a waffle which is essentially a variation of more of the same.

What I meant was SDs should reposition themselves to cash in on these votes by getting behind some more radical fixes, an entire change of approach - they will do well if they did IMO.

PropQueries

Cal4567 wrote: »

Could you provide a link to that, as I cannot see it anywhere. Thanks.

It was in last Fridays Irish Times. It’s the last paragraph.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/john-fitzgerald-corporation-tax-changes-may-pack-more-punch-than-covid-1.4538632

“From a US perspective, it would make sense to require its companies to pay the US government a share of any minimum tax on foreign profits. At worst, any such rules could mean that up to €6 billion of the exceptional taxes Ireland currently collects from US companies might accrue instead to the US treasury. That would constitute a huge hit for Ireland, and a minor gain for the US.”

JimmyVik

flexcon wrote: »

(First time buyer)

Saw this place and thought - Not bad. Still high priced based on the area, but I'd consider it

Asking €305,000.
Sale agreed at €370,000.

WTF. I'm tired of this game. Covid has messed up any chance of the heat being taken off this bull run on house prices. Stuffed
Even as a FTB I get 30K on a new build. There is no new builds that are even reasonable. Oh well.

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-10-rocklands-carrigtwohill-co-cork/2577743

Who would have thought it at the start of covid.
I thought covid would cause a price crash at the time.

hometruths

JimmyVik wrote: »

Who would have thought it at the start of covid.
I thought covid would cause a price crash at the time.

Me too. Though a few on here claimed they forecast this and it was obviously going to happen!

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

Thats my point. The votes are there for the taking and currently nobody offering solutions that are radical enough to have an impact. It's all a waffle which is essentially a variation of more of the same.

What I meant was SDs should reposition themselves to cash in on these votes by getting behind some more radical fixes, an entire change of approach - they will do well if they did IMO.

The tragic thing is it was arguably on the right path for the last 3 years where we had little to no movement in nominal house prices. If we allowed that to continue for another 3-5 years with 2-3% wage inflation, we'd have gotten there quite quickly.

I know some people want 50% drops in nominal prices, but that brings it's own problems and I wouldn't wish such negative equity on people who've only bought recently. So although it would be more beneficial to me for a big bang, I think the slower "catching-up" of wages to house prices is probably better for society as a whole and that's exactly what we were seeing.

Unfortunately the decision to shut down construction for the guts of a year and this mental shared equity scheme, it looks certain we'll see property inflation at least keep pace, if not outstrip wages for a few years.

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

It was in last Fridays Irish Times. It’s the last paragraph.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/john-fitzgerald-corporation-tax-changes-may-pack-more-punch-than-covid-1.4538632

“From a US perspective, it would make sense to require its companies to pay the US government a share of any minimum tax on foreign profits. At worst, any such rules could mean that up to €6 billion of the exceptional taxes Ireland currently collects from US companies might accrue instead to the US treasury. That would constitute a huge hit for Ireland, and a minor gain for the US.”

And you're expecting all of this to be sorted out and the impact quantifiable in 6-10 weeks? As that's "mid year".

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

The tragic thing is it was arguably on the right path for the last 3 years where we had little to no movement in nominal house prices. If we allowed that to continue for another 3-5 years with 2-3% wage inflation, we'd have gotten there quite quickly.

Arguably being a good choice of word!

PropQueries

DataDude wrote: »

The tragic thing is it was arguably on the right path for the last 3 years where we had little to no movement in nominal house prices. If we allowed that to continue for another 3-5 years with 2-3% wage inflation, we'd have gotten there quite quickly.

I know some people want 50% drops in nominal prices, but that brings it's own problems and I wouldn't wish such negative equity on people who've only bought recently. So although it would be more beneficial to me for a big bang, I think the slower "catching-up" of wages to house prices is probably better for society as a whole and that's exactly what we were seeing.

Unfortunately the decision to shut down construction for the guts of a year and this mental shared equity scheme, it looks certain we'll see property inflation at least keep pace, if not outstrip wages for a few years.

But if wages keep rising and people get mortgages based on those wages, we’re in even bigger trouble.

If Biden’s tax reforms work as expected, we will be competing with Eastern Europe on just wages and skill base and I don’t see us winning that one.

In Bloomberg a few weeks ago they did a piece on Lithuania, which is now one of the leaders in Fintech and said:

“The central bank, which provides its fintech-licensing services in English, has so far registered 132 electronic and payment companies and in 2021 expects to add newcomers more quickly than elsewhere in the EU, where the U.S. currently leads the market of fintech innovation.”

Yes, you read that correctly. They now provide their licensing services in English. The language we thought would be one of our competitive advantages in the proposed post-Biden tax reform era.

Link to Bloomberg article here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-01/eu-s-fintech-upstart-sees-evolutionary-shift-away-from-banks

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

And you're expecting all of this to be sorted out and the impact quantifiable in 6-10 weeks? As that's "mid year".

Biden can’t hold out till the mid-terms. He needs it passed basically yesterday IMO.

If the reality is as bad as some predict, all our revenue projections are out and the purse strings would need to be tightened near enough immediately in Ireland IMO

RichardAnd

PropQueries wrote: »

Biden can’t hold out till the mid-terms. He needs it passed basically yesterday IMO.

If the reality is as bad as some predict, all our revenue projections are out and the purse strings would need to be tightened near enough immediately in Ireland IMO

I think that waiting for a few months is certainly prudent, but surely any changes to intentional tax laws will take years to come about? Even if they did come about swiftly, I'm not sure that the state would pull back from funding housing and renting.

DataDude

PropQueries wrote: »

But if wages keep rising and people get mortgages based on those wages, we’re in even bigger trouble.

I was explicitly making the point that we need wages to rise and mortgages/house prices not to rise, as we saw in the years 2018-2020. This bridges the affordability gap in a slow and controlled fashion.

Of course if house prices rise with wage inflation then you're just standing still!

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

Arguably being a good choice of word!

Whilst we agree house prices look lofty in comparison to incomes, do you not think it's preferable for the gap to be closed gradually? A few hundred thousand people in negative equity has costs from an economic and human standpoint.

I think big upwards and downward swings in prices should both be considered highly undesirable.

PropQueries

RichardAnd wrote: »

I think that waiting for a few months is certainly prudent, but surely any changes to intentional tax laws will take years to come about? Even if they did come about swiftly, I'm not sure that the state would pull back from funding housing and renting.

I think you’re mistaking the United States for the EU. The United States moves very fast when they want to.

The democrats are very worried about the mid terms and they need their people to see the results of his plan within the next 12 months IMO

He was only inaugurated 3 months ago and look how fast they are moving with their agenda on almost everything.

In relation to pulling back from housing, there are cheaper ways to arrive at the same end point and they will quickly discover them IMO

PropQueries

DataDude wrote: »

I was explicitly making the point that we need wages to rise and mortgages/house prices not to rise, as we saw in the years 2018-2020. This bridges the affordability gap in a slow and controlled fashion.

Of course if house prices rise with wage inflation then you're just standing still!

Either of those staying still means we’re moving backwards IMO

If Biden’s tax reforms are as bad as some predict, we’re competing with Eastern Europe on much higher wages, much higher debt levels and a similar skill base. And, I’m being nice by saying we have a similar skill base.

Without our low taxes, what’s our competitive advantage post Biden tax reforms?

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Whilst we agree house prices look lofty in comparison to incomes, do you not think it's preferable for the gap to be closed gradually? A few hundred thousand people in negative equity has costs from an economic and human standpoint.

I think big upwards and downward swings in prices should both be considered highly undesirable.

I'd question the idea that we were on the right path in housing because we had no movement in nominal house prices. We still had fundamental problems with rents, supply, affordability, homelessness etc.

I think the economic and human cost of trying to ensure that nobody suffers from negative equity is greater than dealing with it and move on.

I agree volatility is a bad thing, in either direction. I expect more of it to come in the medium term.

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

I'd question the idea that we were on the right path in housing because we had no movement in nominal house prices. We still had fundamental problems with rents, supply, affordability, homelessness etc.

Fair points, I was taking my blinkered viewpoint of the cost of a family home to buy. Not as close to it, but I understand the situation for those less well off looking to rent in Dublin is beyond a nightmare and getting worse every year.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Fair points, I was taking my blinkered viewpoint of the cost of a family home to buy. Not as close to it, but I understand the situation for those less well off looking to rent in Dublin is beyond a nightmare and getting worse every year.

Most people look at things from their own blinkered viewpoint, and vote accordingly. It’s understandable but a big contributing factor to the problem as long as those votes are the key to winning elections.

Hence my point that the SDs should radically go after the voters looking at things from a different, albeit equally blinkered, viewpoint.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Most people look at things from their own blinkered viewpoint, and vote accordingly. It’s understandable but a big contributing factor to the problem as long as those votes are the key to winning elections.

Hence my point that the SDs should radically go after the voters looking at things from a different, albeit equally blinkered, viewpoint.

If they are going to do that they need to be honest. Nothing will get fixed in 1 or 2 (or even 5 years I reckon). If they promise the sun moon and stars, get into government and don’t deliver then.....

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

If they are going to do that they need to be honest. Nothing will get fixed in 1 or 2 (or even 5 years I reckon). If they promise the sun moon and stars, get into government and don’t deliver then.....

But we went from having more houses than we knew what to do with in 2012 to a housing shortage twelve months later. Things can change very very quickly if they really wanted to.

combat14

PropQueries wrote: »

But we went from having more houses than we knew what to do with in 2012 to a housing shortage twelve months later. Things can change very very quickly if they really wanted to.

exactly if they dont get people back to work this summer alot of people will consider looking for work elsewhere where rents are alot cheaper

PropQueries

combat14 wrote: »

exactly if they dont get people back to work this summer alot of people will consider looking for work elsewhere where rents are alot cheaper

They may do that anyway. A chief executive of HSBC in London will now also be hotdesking. According to the Irish Times three days ago he said:

“Quinn told the newspaper that he won’t be in the office five days a week, saying “it’s unnecessary” and “the new reality of life.”

If the head honchos of one of the biggest banks in the world says he doesn’t need an office, why does anyone else?

And, no, such employees are not moving to the west of Ireland where it’s rain, cold and wind for most of the year

Link to article in Irish Times: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/hsbc-top-staff-to-hot-desk-after-scrapping-executive-floor-1.4541134?mode=amp

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

Biden can’t hold out till the mid-terms. He needs it passed basically yesterday IMO.

If the reality is as bad as some predict, all our revenue projections are out and the purse strings would need to be tightened near enough immediately in Ireland IMO

The mid-terms are 18 months away. You are expecting everything, including full knowledge of the impacts, to be tied up in 6-10 weeks

Reality check: it won't be. Its quite likely they'll still be talking in 10 weeks, with nothing done.

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

The mid-terms are 18 months away. You are expecting everything, including full knowledge of the impacts, to be tied up in 6-10 weeks

Reality check: it won't be. Its quite likely they'll still be talking in 10 weeks, with nothing done.

By the end of July, we will know exactly where we stand and the actual future impact on the governments finances IMO

If it’s €6 billion and not €2 billion like Paschal is hoping, he will need to tell all departments to pull back on spending immediately.

Why? Because even if the full impact doesn’t take effect until 2022 or 2023, does he want to reign in spending by the full €6 billion in one year and create a massive, possibly fatal shock to the economy or spread it out and wean us off a bit more gently?

Caveat: I’m assuming Paschal doesn’t want to be this generations Brian Cowen

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

If they are going to do that they need to be honest. Nothing will get fixed in 1 or 2 (or even 5 years I reckon). If they promise the sun moon and stars, get into government and don’t deliver then.....

Sure be honest of course. We will do X and it will help because... they don’t need to make promises and specific targets that they can never deliver.

I am talking about a wholesale change in attitude, not “FG/Ff etc say they will build 50k houses a year, ha we will build 60k, so vote for us”

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Sure be honest of course. We will do X and it will help because... they don’t need to make promises and specific targets that they can never deliver.

I am talking about a wholesale change in attitude, not “FG/Ff etc say they will build 50k houses a year, ha we will build 60k, so vote for us”

Unfortunately, I don’t think they will do that and will go full on with promising 200k houses per month in yr 1.... the last 6 months they have disappointed me hugely by emphatically embracing populism.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Unfortunately, I don’t think they will do that and will go full on with promising 200k houses per month in yr 1.... the last 6 months they have disappointed me hugely by emphatically embracing populism.

Yep, I think you're probably right. What irritates me about the idea of populism is sounds as if it is designed to appeal to what would be most popular, but it is actually appealing to those shouting loudest.

I think ireland is crying out for a brand new political party which is genuinely economically centre right and socially centre left, and has no historical baggage.

Anybody who has tried to start something new has pitched it too far to one extreme or the other, when the majority are in middle.

Leftwaffe

Could anyone shed a little light on this for me.

How much does a planning application cost from start to permission being granted? Self build on a site bought subject to planning. Architect doing drawings and application. Modest size house in rural area, approx 2000sqft mid range spec.

I’m hearing some people saying 10k but a financial advisor in the locality told me 2k, if even that.

Mic 1972

JimmyVik wrote: »

Who would have thought it at the start of covid.
I thought covid would cause a price crash at the time.

Thanks to Covid we may be heading for a "socialist" approach, where houses are owned by the state and assigned to people according to needs.
Lots of estates are being built right now but they all counsel houses