2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Wanderer78

Hubertj wrote: »

American chamber have been hammering this point home for years. Difficult to keep attracting FDI with bat sh*t crazy tax brackets and then the higher cost of living dumped in..... Sinn Fein want to make this worse if they get into power which will not only force FDI elsewhere but also drive MMC jobs out of the country. This will have a knock on effect in the demand for property etc.
Tax base has to be broadened but in our wonderful populist world those on the left won’t stand for it.

...or we could continue as is... and see will things work out....

Idbatterim

FFG are the left, except when it comes to rip off housing, we are pretty unique. We keep hearing ireland is a great place to do business, yeah great for multinations and vulture funds contributing SFA. But FG say they reward work and the masses lap it up, "oh it must be true" even down to the health service shambles etc here, trying to keep doctors and nurses etc, we cant do much about the weather, but the rip off cost of living and high taxes on moderate to high incomes, just exacerbates the problem!

But why sort the problem ? cutting the insane marginal rate, when you can exacerbate it by giving pay rise to certain employees, to try to address the problem in one area, when its private industry that makes choices of where to locate, whether extra work or jobs, hours are worthwhile.

Its not discussed in the media, because of how progressive, LOL, they are. But the penal taxation system for some and fantasy land taxation system for primarily low income workers, is a serious problem. We will run out of roadway in a few years and its been coming for years and I look forward to seeing the results!

Timing belt

Wanderer78 wrote: »

property prices seem to be continually rising in my region, so im not convinced of them settling anytime soon, thank god incomes are rising in proportion!

rising house prices are not an issue as long as wages rise with them which appears to be the case in Dublin. (I have used the mean and Median)

Idbatterim

Wanderer78 wrote: »

...or we could continue as is... and see will things work out....

they will borrow as much as they can, when that is no longer feasible, welfare etc will be frozen, they will introduce tax increases, before spending cuts in any areas. The workers, will end up paying an even bigger share, thats how it works here. Open goal for any new good pro worker and enterprise party to state up here, FG happy to lose votes from workers and renters or aspiring home owners that they have screwed over, but they would be concerned about image on rte, hitting the perceived vulnerable, they and by extension, the working tax payer are bent over backwards here for, despite the fact the biggest benefactors of the farce here, detest FG, that is how spineless they actually are!

The mere thought of "the vulnerable" card being pulled by any media outlet, has them cowering under a rock, while they throw the hard working early risers under the bus, yet still expect their support, absolute top notch comedy!

Wanderer78

Idbatterim wrote: »

FFG are the left, except when it comes to rip off housing, we are pretty unique. We keep hearing ireland is a great place to do business, yeah great for multinations and vulture funds contributing SFA. But FG say they reward work and the masses lap it up, "oh it must be true" even down to the health service shambles etc here, trying to keep doctors and nurses etc, we cant do much about the weather, but the rip off cost of living and high taxes on moderate to high incomes, just exacerbates the problem!

But why sort the problem ? cutting the insane marginal rate, when you can exacerbate it by giving pay rise to certain employees, to try to address the problem in one area, when its private industry that makes choices of where to locate, whether extra work or jobs, hours are worthwhile.

Its not discussed in the media, because of how progressive, LOL, they are. But the penal taxation system for some and fantasy land taxation system for primarily low income workers, is a serious problem. We will run out of roadway in a few years and its been coming for years and I look forward to seeing the results!

hahaha, people are nuts! the more plutocratic elements of our economy, have strong state protectionism, common under these ideologies, these parties are far from left!

Idbatterim

Wanderer78 wrote: »

hahaha, people are nuts! the more plutocratic elements of our economy, have strong state protectionism, common under these ideologies, these parties are far from left!

wandered I agree with much of what you say. But we have an outrageous welfare state, free luxury housing etc. Paid for by absolutely penal income related taxes and confiscation of wealth and labour. I would call that left government! Anywhere except ireland, this would be considered left. Look what I post here, hardly deemed leftish views, I was considered left leaning politically by many in the states when I visit.

Ireland is not reality!

many of my mates voted fG the election before last, some after their blatant lying about rewarding work and then purposefully supporting rip off housing. Some people said I have nowhere else to go if not FG, here is what my working mates did, simply stopped voting. That explains the surge in the likes of SF etc. FG wont be able to run with the hare and chase with the hounds forever, its obvious to many for years what is going on, the others will wake up at some point too!

PropQueries

Idbatterim wrote: »

wandered I agree with much of what you say. But we have an outrageous welfare state, free luxury housing etc. Paid for by absolutely penal income related taxes and confiscation of wealth and labour. I would call that left government! Anywhere except ireland, this would be considered left. Look what I post here, hardly deemed leftish views, I was considered left leaning politically by many in the states when I visit.

Ireland is not reality!

I don’t think many social welfare recipients have requested free luxury housing. They require 4 walls and a roof. There’s generally no such thing as luxury housing up to the €600k mark in Dublin. Whether they’re council or private houses, they’re all generally just four walls and a roof. They also both generally cost less than €200k to build when excluding site, VAT, profit margins etc.

If the local council decides to pay developers up to €700k+ for an apartment on sheriff street (if true from recent news story), that’s not the recipients fault IMO.

The data on the €20 billion “welfare” bill for 2019 clearly shows that “welfare”, as the layman understands it, amounts to a small percentage of that total bill, with 40% going to pensions alone of which about half that pension bill goes to public sector pensioners who unlike in other countries paid very little in either PRSI or pension contributions throughout their careers.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I don’t think many social welfare recipients have requested free luxury housing. They require 4 walls and a roof. There’s generally no such thing as luxury housing up to the €600k mark in Dublin. Whether they’re council or private houses, they’re all generally just four walls and a roof. They also both generally cost less than €200k to build when excluding site, VAT, profit margins etc.

If the local council decides to pay developers up to €700k+ for an apartment on sheriff street (if true from recent news story), that’s not the recipients fault IMO.

The data on the €20 billion “welfare” bill for 2019 clearly shows that “welfare”, as the layman understands it, amounts to a small percentage of that total bill, with 40% going to pensions alone of which about half that pension bill goes to public sector pensioners who unlike in other countries paid very little in either PRSI or pension contributions throughout their careers.

what they are requesting is housing in their locality and despite your musings otherwise this comes with increased costs leaving site costs aside and vastly increased costs if site costs are included.

its all well and good saying no one asked for a luxury house but if they are requesting to live in a specific area then they are requesting an expensive property.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

what they are requesting is housing in their locality and despite your musings otherwise this comes with increased costs leaving site costs aside and vastly increased costs if site costs are included.

its all well and good saying no one asked for a luxury house but if they are requesting to live in a specific area then they are requesting an expensive property.

I see no problem with them asking to be near their families. There’s nothing but empty or under utilised sites in the city centre.

The glass bottle site is a prime example. The state could have easily taken that off NAMA and used similar contractors to the ones used in Tallaght etc. to build houses (designed and built) for under the €200k mark.

Here’s the example (linked by another poster a while back) of Sisk Living’s design and build contract in Tallaght in 2018. They built 90 houses in 37 weeks for c. €180k each.

Has construction inflation been at Zimbabwe levels in Ireland over the past two years?

Link to Sisk Living Tallaght article here: https://www.irishbuildingmagazine.ie/2018/11/01/sisk-living-delivers-90-social-houses-in-tallaght/

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

The glass bottle site is a prime example. The state could have easily taken that off NAMA and used similar contractors to the ones used in Tallaght etc. to build houses (designed and built) for under the €200k mark.

Instead they got €200,000,000 for the site which is expected to deliver up to 3,800 homes, 25 per cent of which are earmarked for social and affordable housing.

Sierra Oscar

Timing belt wrote: »

Yes bubbles in all assets thanks to QE... The fact that CBI adopted lending rules before the rest of world will help shield Ireland as we don't have a bubble in housing.

It'll help shield us, but many large institutional investors that have and will continue to benefit from QE are buying with cash where the CB rules don't even come into the equation. You'd hope they don't start to represent a large share of the market activity in the years ahead.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I see no problem with them asking to be near their families. There’s nothing but empty or under utilised sites in the city centre.

The glass bottle site is a prime example. The state could have easily taken that off NAMA and used similar contractors to the ones used in Tallaght etc. to build houses (designed and built) for under the €200k mark.

Here’s the example (linked by another poster a while back) of Sisk Living’s design and build contract in Tallaght in 2018. They built 90 houses in 37 weeks for c. €180k each.

Has construction inflation been at Zimbabwe levels in Ireland over the past two years?

Link to Sisk Living Tallaght article here: https://www.irishbuildingmagazine.ie/2018/11/01/sisk-living-delivers-90-social-houses-in-tallaght/

One assumes that the site works at the glass bottle site will be extensive, and im not sure anyone thinks that building a 37 acre estate of purely social housing is a good idea. Especially on a site as valuable as that.

Are sisk still building houses for SDCC at 180k a pop? the circumstances that led to them taking that contract (one assumes in 2015/2016) may not prevail now.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

One assumes that the site works at the glass bottle site will be extensive, and im not sure anyone thinks that building a 37 acre estate of purely social housing is a good idea. Especially on a site as valuable as that.

Are sisk still building houses for SDCC at 180k a pop? the circumstances that led to them taking that contract (one assumes in 2015/2016) may not prevail now.

Well their costs appear to line up with the 2020 costs of building stated by Cairn Homes yesterday.

They stated their average selling price including VAT was c. €350k during 2020. Once site costs, VAT, profit margins etc. are removed that would bring their cost of construction down to c. €200k per unit during 2020.

Near enough in line with Sisk Livings design and build figures in 2018.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well their costs appear to line up with the 2020 costs of building stated by Cairn Homes yesterday.

They stated their average selling price including VAT was c. €350k during 2020. Once site costs, VAT, profit margins etc. are removed that would bring their cost of construction down to c. €200k per unit during 2020.

Near enough in line with Sisk Livings design and build figures in 2018.

so you are comparing a 200k stripped out cost to sisks 177k all in cost,

why?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

so you are comparing a 200k stripped out cost to sisks 177k all in cost,

why?

So when Cairn Homes sold their houses during 2020 for an average of c. €350k including VAT each, they just handed over the shell to the purchasers and told them to complete the rest themselves?

Out of the property game for a few years now but if that’s what’s going on now I can’t disagree with you I guess.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

So when Cairn Homes sold their houses during 2020 for an average of c. €350k including VAT each, they just handed over the shell to the purchasers and told them to complete the rest themselves?

Out of the property game for a few years now but if that’s what’s going on now I can’t disagree with you I guess.

im never sure if you are pretending to misunderstand or not.

anyway you strip margin and vat out of cairns costs and compare it to sisks all in cost which includes their margin,

again why?

Browney7

Cyrus wrote: »

im never sure if you are pretending to misunderstand or not.

anyway you strip margin and vat out of cairns costs and compare it to sisks all in cost which includes their margin,

again why?

Is this not splitting hairs?

I've interpreted Props point that he's making is that the average cost for cairn hasn't exploded in the last few years and is then wondering how if Sisk were able build on behalf of SDCC for 180k a unit in 2017/18 how DCC are saying it costs 400k to deliver a unit on state land in 2021.

I'll let props clarify

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

im never sure if you are pretending to misunderstand or not.

anyway you strip margin and vat out of cairns costs and compare it to sisks all in cost which includes their margin,

again why?

It's simple. Because you stated "Are sisk still building houses for SDCC at 180k a pop? the circumstances that led to them taking that contract (one assumes in 2015/2016) may not prevail now" and are suggesting that the cost of construction has increased significantly between 2018 and 2020 and that one can't compare Sisk Living designing and building A2-rated homes in Tallaght for c. €180k each in 2018 with the cost of construction today.


Yesterday, Cairn Homes stated that their average selling price during 2020 was c. €350k including VAT.


Once VAT, site costs and profit margin are removed, that shows that construction costs haven't increased significantly since Sisk Living completed their contract two years ago. Sisk Living didn't have to pay either VAT on the end selling unit or site costs.



It also shows that DCC recently stating that they can't build units for less than €400k on their own land is most likely not true given that Cairn Homes also contracts out most of their construction to building contractors.


If the cost of construction i.e. labour, materials etc. hasn't increased significantly over the past two years, where is all the extra money going (apparently costs have doubled in the past two years based on the Sisk Living contract in Tallaght and comparing it with the DCC cost of building in 2020 statement) as it's not going on the site, VAT or profit margin as DCC doesn't have these costs?

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

It's simple. Because you stated "Are sisk still building houses for SDCC at 180k a pop? the circumstances that led to them taking that contract (one assumes in 2015/2016) may not prevail now" and are suggesting that the cost of construction has increased significantly between 2018 and 2020 and that one can't compare Sisk Living designing and building A2-rated homes in Tallaght for c. €180k each in 2018 with the cost of construction today.

i didnt say anything of the sort, you inferred most of that, i asked are sisk still building houses for SDCC at 180k a pop, so are they?

Also one assumes they had a margin ? they hardly did it out of the good of their hearts.

Hubertj

Does the council contract out all construction or do they have their own construction teams as well?

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

It's simple. Because you stated "Are sisk still building houses for SDCC at 180k a pop? the circumstances that led to them taking that contract (one assumes in 2015/2016) may not prevail now" and are suggesting that the cost of construction has increased significantly between 2018 and 2020 and that one can't compare Sisk Living designing and building A2-rated homes in Tallaght for c. €180k each in 2018 with the cost of construction today.


Yesterday, Cairn Homes stated that their average selling price during 2020 was c. €350k including VAT.


Once VAT, site costs and profit margin are removed, that shows that construction costs haven't increased significantly since Sisk Living completed their contract two years ago. Sisk Living didn't have to pay either VAT on the end selling unit or site costs.



It also shows that DCC recently stating that they can't build units for less than €400k on their own land is most likely not true given that Cairn Homes also contracts out most of their construction to building contractors.


If the cost of construction i.e. labour, materials etc. hasn't increased significantly over the past two years, where is all the extra money going (apparently costs have doubled in the past two years based on the Sisk Living contract in Tallaght and comparing it with the DCC cost of building in 2020 statement) as it's not going on the site, VAT or profit margin as DCC doesn't have these costs?

Are you not comparing apples with oranges?

Standard houses on a greenfield site.....Non-standard houses/apartments in city centre.... Plus there will probably extra costs e.g. work at off peak times to cause traffic jams etc...

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

Does the council contract out all construction or do they have their own construction teams as well?

AFAIK its all contracted out for renovations, my brother works for a smallish building firm 30-40 lads as an electrician and they do lots of work for the council.

Ironically the guy that runs the firm is related to a big wig in DCC, everything is milked price wise because as the owner says "who else will they get to do the job"

Say they go into a home and there's a decent newish boiler well these guys will bill the council for a new boiler while leaving the existing one there, the stories my brother has would horrify people and i imagine most of these small contractors are like this.

My brother swears blindly the cost for some of these projects goes so unnecessarily high and wonders why the council don't just employ their own teams, its not even like they're efficient because they constantly run to each job and hang a door or install a sink just to keep the appearance of a job in progress while focusing mainly on the non council jobs were final payment requires meeting real targets

awec

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

AFAIK its all contracted out for renovations, my brother works for a smallish building firm 30-40 lads as an electrician and they do lots of work for the council.

Ironically the guy that runs the firm is related to a big wig in DCC, everything is milked price wise because as the owner says "who else will they get to do the job"

Say they go into a home and there's a decent newish boiler well these guys will bill the council for a new boiler while leaving the existing one there, the stories my brother has would horrify people and i imagine most of these small contractors are like this.

My brother swears blindly the cost for some of these projects goes so unnecessarily high and wonders why the council don't just employ their own teams, its not even like they're efficient because they constantly run to each job and hang a door or install a sink just to keep the appearance of a job in progress while focusing mainly on the non council jobs were final payment requires meeting real targets

Cause councils have no idea how to build houses.

enricoh

The golden goose that pays for the 700k social housing apartments is coming under a bit of pressure

https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiZmh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnJ0ZS5pZS9uZXdzL2J1c2luZXNzLzIwMjEvMDExNC8xMTg5NzIwLWNoYW5nZXMtdG8tY29ycG9yYXRlLXRheC1ydWxlcy13aWxsLXJlZHVjZS1yZXZlbnVlL9IBH2h0dHBzOi8vYW1wLnJ0ZS5pZS9hbXAvMTE4OTcyMC8?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen
The Minister for Finance, Paschal Donohoe, has said planned changes to corporate tax rules will result in a reduction in corporate tax in the future of between €800m and €2 billion a year

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Cause councils have no idea how to build houses.

The council doesn’t need to know how to build houses. Sisk Living designed and built 90 A2-rated houses in Tallaght for SDCC for less than c. €180k each all-in in 2018.

MacronvFrugals

awec wrote: »

Cause councils have no idea how to build houses.

Fair point, i imagine this skill was lost over the years as the council built many estates in Dublin.

Whether those capabilities can be built back up is anyone's guess but we're talking about houses here not Saturn 5 rockets, the system now of employing loads of micro contractors who all milk the councils coffers with very little accountability seems unsustainable to me.

Browney7

Timing belt wrote: »

Are you not comparing apples with oranges?

Standard houses on a greenfield site.....Non-standard houses/apartments in city centre.... Plus there will probably extra costs e.g. work at off peak times to cause traffic jams etc...

Bit of a stretch that these cost 200k of a difference no? Isn't Oscar Traynor a Greenfield site requiring no demolition? It just seems baffling to me that one hand of the state was able to get units built at a significantly cheaper rate two to three years ago than that been touted in the media right now by DCC.

It is also curious that DCC in trying to get the Oscar Traynor development passed said housing delivery would be delayed yet over a year on from the o'devaney gardens approval, work has still to commence.

We can get into VAT, land costs, infill costs etc to try and confuse the issue all we like but do we really think the effective cost to the state of delivering a 2 bed apartment on land it already owns is really over 400k a unit?

I just have huge concerns the state is being screwed and is letting itself get screwed on housing delivery

JimmyVik

Browney7 wrote: »

Bit of a stretch that these cost 200k of a difference no? Isn't Oscar Traynor a Greenfield site requiring no demolition? It just seems baffling to me that one hand of the state was able to get units built at a significantly cheaper rate two to three years ago than that been touted in the media right now by DCC.

It is also curious that DCC in trying to get the Oscar Traynor development passed said housing delivery would be delayed yet over a year on from the o'devaney gardens approval, work has still to commence.

We can get into VAT, land costs, infill costs etc to try and confuse the issue all we like but do we really think the effective cost to the state of delivering a 2 bed apartment on land it already owns is really over 400k a unit?

I just have huge concerns the state is being screwed and is letting itself get screwed on housing delivery

Dont forget the payments that need to be paid to the gangsters.

Timing belt

Browney7 wrote: »

Bit of a stretch that these cost 200k of a difference no? Isn't Oscar Traynor a Greenfield site requiring no demolition? It just seems baffling to me that one hand of the state was able to get units built at a significantly cheaper rate two to three years ago than that been touted in the media right now by DCC.

It is also curious that DCC in trying to get the Oscar Traynor development passed said housing delivery would be delayed yet over a year on from the o'devaney gardens approval, work has still to commence.

We can get into VAT, land costs, infill costs etc to try and confuse the issue all we like but do we really think the effective cost to the state of delivering a 2 bed apartment on land it already owns is really over 400k a unit?

I just have huge concerns the state is being screwed and is letting itself get screwed on housing delivery

I was asking was there additional complexities building in a city as I don't know the site. There has been no real inflation so labour and materials shouldn't count for it... Is it something to do with the land value or is the 'protection' money and brown envelopes more expensive in the city centre than out in Tallaght

Hubertj

Browney7 wrote: »

Bit of a stretch that these cost 200k of a difference no? Isn't Oscar Traynor a Greenfield site requiring no demolition? It just seems baffling to me that one hand of the state was able to get units built at a significantly cheaper rate two to three years ago than that been touted in the media right now by DCC.

It is also curious that DCC in trying to get the Oscar Traynor development passed said housing delivery would be delayed yet over a year on from the o'devaney gardens approval, work has still to commence.

We can get into VAT, land costs, infill costs etc to try and confuse the issue all we like but do we really think the effective cost to the state of delivering a 2 bed apartment on land it already owns is really over 400k a unit?

I just have huge concerns the state is being screwed and is letting itself get screwed on housing delivery

Of course it is being screwed. Most public servants are barely competent in their jobs. Add in there is no accountability for not performing why would they give a toss how much it costs? It’s not their money, it’s ours. Unions have the public sector so wound up in bureaucracy it takes an age to get anything done. Add in weak management and cowardly governments reform will not happen. Drop Sinn Fein into government and you think they will fix the system? Take on unions?