2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

LasersGoPewPew

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

Can you elaborate how she is milking the system? Does she have kids, lone parent, unemployed? This ****e makes me sick to read, the house should be repossessed.

She has 3 kids, divorced from the husband, doesn't work, hasn't paid a penny in around 10 years, I don't remember exactly.
Anyway, when the day comes that the bank try to repossess the house, the council will buy it and rent it to her.
There ya are, why would ya bother

Edit, sorry it is around 9 years

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

If someone has a family and a family home where they cant afford the mortgage repayments and the house is repossessed they are hardly gong to be able to afford the rent so they will need some kind of assistance to get housed.

You really think it is plausible every house in arrears over 1 year, (the sort of timescale that would lead to a repo in the UK), or restructured, would require govt support towards their housing costs?

PropQueries

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

Can you elaborate how she is milking the system? Does she have kids, lone parent, unemployed? This ****e makes me sick to read, the house should be repossessed.

But who’s really milking the system? The few people who don’t pay their mortgage or people like the CIE workers who will be expecting us to pay for the €1billion deficit (reported today) in their pension scheme?

And for clarity, I believe I will be paying for it as the only real way of funding such a deficit is higher fares or selling off land that I (the taxpayer) owns, but some reason they now own when they need the cash (kinda like RTÉ selling “their” land for €100m 3 years ago).

They should only be allowed to sell land if it’s 100% invested back into the business and not used to pay for pensions that most other private sector workers can only dream of IMO

OwlsZat

bubblypop wrote: »

She has 3 kids, divorced from the husband, doesn't work, hasn't paid a penny in around 10 years, I don't remember exactly.
Anyway, when the day comes that the bank try to repossess the house, the council will buy it and rent it to her.
There ya are, why would ya bother

Edit, sorry it is around 9 years

How can she be sure the council will do that?

hometruths

Props, am I right in thinking you posted a figure recently about the total amount of households currently in receipt of HAP, social housing etc?

Had a look for it but I can't find it, can you point me in right direction?

Taylor365

Taylor365 wrote: »

I mean, she'll never own her own property without buying it outright now.


9 years of craic for a lifetime of scratch/renting.

Well that's not true.
Because she is now Looking at buying a house for cash, cos she has a lot of savings and her father will help her with a few Bob if she wants to buy for cash.
She lives down the country.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Props, am I right in thinking you posted a figure recently about the total amount of households currently in receipt of HAP, social housing etc?

Had a look for it but I can't find it, can you point me in right direction?

The Housing Minister said it would be over 90,000 this year (HAP and RAS). Will look for it.

Correct link: https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/minister-unsure-if-target-of-12-500-social-housing-units-will-be-met-1.4542958?mode=amp

enricoh

bubblypop wrote: »

Friend of mine is now 9 years without paying a penny off her mortgage. Still living there and will be for the foreseeable

Same as that a neighbour split up with the missus. His business went wallop after the tiger n the good life dried up for her, so he had to go! She's there 10 years later n not a fiver paid.
No wonder the foreign banks are legging it !

OwlsZat

OwlsZat wrote: »

How can she be sure the council will do that?

They have already told her they will.
But she may not go with it, if she buys a place herself before then

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

You really think it is plausible every house in arrears over 1 year, (the sort of timescale that would lead to a repo in the UK), or restructured, would require govt support towards their housing costs?

If someone cant afford the mortgage repayments and the family home got repossessed they wouldnt be able to afford rent and would be entitled to get assistance by the government. Look I dont like it any more than you do its just how it is

As for the UK and Ireland they take very different approaches when it comes to to debt, mortgages and repossessions.

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

The Housing Minister said it would be over 90,000 this year (HAP and RAS). Will look for it.

Correct link: https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/minister-unsure-if-target-of-12-500-social-housing-units-will-be-met-1.4542958%3fmode=amp

Thanks, that's it:

In addition to social housing, the department estimates an additional 15,800 new households will require housing assistance payments (Hap) or rental accommodation scheme payments (Ras) in private rented accommodation in 2021, bringing the total number of households in this category to over 90,000.

Presumably "in this category" means over 90,000 + those living in social housing units?

I have been trying to work out a definitive figure of how many are in receipt of government housing support of some form or other but it's a bit confusing.

yagan

I can't remember which but recently AIB or BofI sold off around 3.500 non performing mortgages to some foreign fund, so I guess repos will be attempted but then when the occupants get on Joe Duffy it will probably be government buying back these loans and as long as the vultures make some profit in the process they're happy.

So basically a tax payer supported bank sells distressed loans at a discount, vulture fund buys and then sells back to the tax payer for more. Commission bonuses all round for the financials. Our political class letting this happen are going to get rimmed if that scam ever fully crystallises in the minds eye.

I can see anger on the streets that should have happened in 08/09 happening in the future if bank bailout part deux materialises.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

If someone cant afford the mortgage repayments and the family home got repossessed they wouldnt be able to afford rent and would be entitled to get assistance by the government. Look I dont like it any more than you do its just how it is

Ok I'll explain my logic. According to CB there are approx 100k PDH mortgages in arrears of over 1 year or restructured. These are the houses that should be repoed.

Taking average occupancy of 2.75 per household that is 275,000 people that would require housing support.

Best source I can find for current levels of housing support is a UCD paper which indicates that currently there are about 250,000 supported tenants via the various schemes.

I think it is utterly implausible that the true figure of people in this country who require housing support is double the already high number.

I think it is far more likely that some of this cohort are perfectly capable of supporting their own housing needs, but in the absence of having to do so they chose to spend their money on other things.

And this is back of the envelope stuff assuming the properties and households are broadly similiar. Once you start considering a number of them will be couples in 5 bed high value homes, the idea that repoing is a zero sum game is even more ridiculous.

But lets assume you're correct and the true figure of people in Ireland who cannot afford to provide their own housing is over 500,000 - in that scenario our current high priced market is built on very shaky fundamentals and sooner or later the truth will out.

Either way we are storing up even bigger problems for the future by not tacking arrears/repossessions head on when the problem started to get serious.

Browney7

schmittel wrote: »

Thanks, that's it:



Presumably "in this category" means over 90,000 + those living in social housing units?

I have been trying to work out a definitive figure of how many are in receipt of government housing support of some form or other but it's a bit confusing.

Eurostat could be worth a look - they had breakdown by tenure if I recall (homeowner, rental at market rent, rental at below market rate etc)

LasersGoPewPew

PropQueries wrote: »

But who’s really milking the system? The few people who don’t pay their mortgage or people like the CIE workers who will be expecting us to pay for the €1billion deficit (reported today) in their pension scheme?

And for clarity, I believe I will be paying for it as the only real way of funding such a deficit is higher fares or selling off land that I (the taxpayer) owns, but some reason they now own when they need the cash (kinda l ike RTÉ selling “their” land for €100m 3 years ago).

They should only be allowed to sell land if it’s 100% invested back into the business and not used to pay for pensions that most other private sector workers can only dream of IMO

This is whataboutery nonsense, deflect and target those who work and actually contribute something of value to society. There are approx 16,500 mortgages in arrears anywhere from 5-10+ years and 8,000 in arrears ranging from 2-5 years. Do you think that is a small number of people? People like her are part of the reason why banks are leaving this market. It's people like her that will cost me more money over the lifetime of a mortgage due to higher interest rates compared to some of our European counterparts due to increased risk profile.

Villa05

bubblypop wrote:

Anyway, when the day comes that the bank try to repossess the house, the council will buy it and rent it to her. There ya are, why would ya bother

Those days are over, it will be sold to an investment fund at 50% markdown and the council will enter a long term lease with the investment fund with guaranteed inflation linked rent for 25 years to keep the occupant in the house thus ensuring the maximum cost for the taxpayer

PommieBast

yagan wrote: »

I can see anger on the streets that should have happened in 08/09 happening in the future if bank bailout part deux materialises.

Ireland will only ever reform when it has a gun to its head, but I doubt that the property market will be the epicentre of the next bailout.

Hubertj

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-old-vicarage-proby-square-blackrock-co-dublin/4423247

I know it was a vicarage but this place just looks too vicarage(y) to live in

Cyrus

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-old-vicarage-proby-square-blackrock-co-dublin/4423247

I know it was a vicarage but this place just looks too vicarage(y) to live in

You think ? Have to say I think it’s lovely !

saffron22

415k for each apt the council to buy for SH. Can't understand how this got the go ahead. Apparently without an actual site visit by ABP

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/e200m-apartment-scheme-at-carrickmines-gets-approval-1115860.html

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

You think ? Have to say I think it’s lovely !

For me there is something that just seems wrong about that stonework. I presume it is original but it doesn't look like it, rather it has the whiff of faux stone cladding.

Love the garden though, particularly the brickwork on the terrace.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

For me there is something that just seems wrong about that stonework. I presume it is original but it doesn't look like it, rather it has the whiff of faux stone cladding.

Love the garden though, particularly the brickwork on the terrace.

I reckon the stonework was repointed, treated, power washed etc in recent years making it look sort of “too new”

Wanderer78

PommieBast wrote:

Ireland will only ever reform when it has a gun to its head, but I doubt that the property market will be the epicentre of the next bailout.

A global reform is required in the fire sectors (finance, insurance and real estate), its disturbing to see us default post 08, we may have multiple epicenters during the next one

Hubertj

Cyrus wrote: »

You think ? Have to say I think it’s lovely !

Nah, would give me the creeps living in that place!

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

They may do that anyway. A chief executive of HSBC in London will now also be hotdesking. According to the Irish Times three days ago he said:

“Quinn told the newspaper that he won’t be in the office five days a week, saying “it’s unnecessary” and “the new reality of life.”

If the head honchos of one of the biggest banks in the world says he doesn’t need an office, why does anyone else?

And, no, such employees are not moving to the west of Ireland where it’s rain, cold and wind for most of the year

Link to article in Irish Times: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/hsbc-top-staff-to-hot-desk-after-scrapping-executive-floor-1.4541134?mode=amp

UK banks have had a WFH policy for the past 5 years in an effort to cut down on fixed costs of buildings... it’s not just branches they are closing down they have also exited many properties used by back office staff and offshores jobs to low cost areas such as India and Eastern Europe. This is all needed as profits have declined due to lower rates.

hmmm

saffron22 wrote: »

415k for each apt the council to buy for SH. Can't understand how this got the go ahead. Apparently without an actual site visit by ABP

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/e200m-apartment-scheme-at-carrickmines-gets-approval-1115860.html

We can barely build above 6 storeys in the city centre, yet we'll approve 22 storeys in a field on the outskirts of the city. If this doesn't sum up how terrible our planning system is I don't know.

Villa05

hmmm wrote:

I understand we need housing, but 485 apartments with nothing nearby except a shopping centre, and everyone having to commute along a single LUAS line to get somewhere else. They expect most of the people to cycle everywhere (from beside the M50 in Carrickmines?) as the number of parking spaces are quite small.

The EU will be resuming their tours for developing nations to show them a live case study of how not to develop a city once travel resumes after covid

How difficult is it to review 2 or 3 appropriate sites with adequate services to concentrate high rise

The lobbyists and developers have government in their pocket again

PropQueries

Wanderer78 wrote: »

A global reform is required in the fire sectors (finance, insurance and real estate), its disturbing to see us default post 08, we may have multiple epicenters during the next one

“Multiple epicentres”. Good point and haven’t really looked at it like that. Last time it was just property.

Now, it’s property, government debt, pension timebombs, global tax reform and climate change costs.

All pre-flagged for the past several years and nothing done and will most likely cost us a multiple of the last bailout.

These would be difficult enough to pay for even if our national debt was zero and our pensions were fully funded. Read a few weeks ago how the Danish and Dutch pensions are some of the best funded in the world.

We most definitely are not all in this together and we’ve really landed ourselves in it this time IMO

All that additional debt over the past 10 years and we really have nothing to show for it.

hmmm

Villa05 wrote: »

The lobbyists and developers have government in their pocket again

It's nothing to do with developers, I'm sure they'd much rather be building towers in the city centre than close to the Wicklow border.

Government and politicians from every party support a system where people who live in the city centre can oppose development because it might "overshadow them" or "ruin the skyline". Meanwhile young families and young renters are pushed to the outskirts of the city, and are forced to commute for hours every day.

The city is withering away, and WFH will make it worse, and it's places on the outskirts of the city which will be the ones to benefit.

Villa05

hmmm wrote:

It's nothing to do with developers, I'm sure they'd much rather be building towers in the city centre than close to the Wicklow border.

Developers will build where they own/hoard the land. If your hoarding land the current system suits you

Planning is a function of government/councils. Pick sites that are appropriate for high rise with adequate services