2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Marcusm

PropQueries wrote: »

So, they have a building for 8,000 workers (incl. the Chief Executive) and all are hot-desking.

What’s the point as if they’re all hot-desking, where’s the collaboration, brainstorming etc. happening?

Might as well save the cash and anytime they want a meeting, book a meeting room at some local hotel?

Nope, no one there has been hot desking except on the executive floor. Each floor has collaboration spaces, some enclosed as meeting rooms, some in open plan spaces. There are generally no walls except in the central core. Lower 4 floors are 450 people per floor, one enclosed office (for global head of Global Banking & Markets). Other floors are 250 people. Each 10-15 floors is a full floor for collaboration via cafe and similar spaces and more formal meeting rooms.

Villa05

Bass Reeves wrote:

Yes it is but there is still no large amount of houses coming on stream and being sold. I am not too far from Limerick city. There is really only two developmemts in progress in the city one is Out Castletroy/Monaleen and the other is Mungretgate development. Other than that there is a builder building in Clarina but that about it. There is no serious development anywhere else in Limerick AFAIK. Ya a few houses here and there but nothing that will cause a glut in the next 2-3 years.

There wasn't too many developments caught in 08 in Limerick either that I can think off. There was 1 on the killmallock road

LDA are talking about building 2000 units in Limerick, that's a fairly significant stock addition for a city that size

L1011

Daft alert for a house locally today for 335, thought it looked familiar - got a Daft alert for it in September 2013 for 159k, and it made 171k at that time.

But I remember similar going for 400 in 2007. Don't think, even with an asking overshoot, that it'll get 400k.

It looked familiar as I viewed an identical one one road over in 2012 for 150k asking! Which actually made 185k.

fliball123

L1011 wrote: »

Daft alert for a house locally today for 335, thought it looked familiar - got a Daft alert for it in September 2013 for 159k, and it made 171k at that time.

But I remember similar going for 400 in 2007. Don't think, even with an asking overshoot, that it'll get 400k.

It looked familiar as I viewed an identical one one road over in 2012 for 150k asking! Which actually made 185k.

During the crash in 08 and the 3/4 years after houses floored at a price level that was way lower than the price the properties were built for. The market post 2012/2013 there was a correction for this crash once the ecconomy started getting back to some normality

Wanderer78

fliball123 wrote: »

During the crash in 08 and the 3/4 years after houses floored at a price level that was way lower than the price the properties were built for. The market post 2012/2013 there was a correction for this crash once the ecconomy started getting back to some normality

our property markets have never been corrected, its clearly obvious, theyre a complete train wreck, and getting worse

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

There wasn't too many developments caught in 08 in Limerick either that I can think off. There was 1 on the killmallock road

LDA are talking about building 2000 units in Limerick, that's a fairly significant stock addition for a city that size

Do you think that is too many? Too little? Did the LDA have reasoning for 2k - population increase sets? Or is it an arbitrary number to sound like they are doing a good job?

fliball123

Wanderer78 wrote: »

our property markets have never been corrected, its clearly obvious, theyre a complete train wreck, and getting worse

so what do you think the average price should be in 2021

Wanderer78

fliball123 wrote: »

so what do you think the average price should be in 2021

far less than what it is, we re now in a situation whereby the average earner, particularly younger generations trying to gain access to these markets, simply cannot, we re in big trouble!

fliball123

Wanderer78 wrote: »

far less than what it is, we re now in a situation whereby the average earner, particularly younger generations trying to gain access to these markets, simply cannot, we re in big trouble!

median so even lower than the average wage is 38.5k we can borrow 3.5 times your salary with 10% deposit. Social norms now have most property bought as a couple. So on average an average house is most likely to be bought for 38.5 * 2 * 3.5 + 10% deposit = 296k


http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=104&loctype=1#:~:text=A%20person%20working%20in%20Ireland%20typically%20earns%20around%2038%2C500%20EUR,%2C%20transport%2C%20and%20other%20benefits.


Median house price sold in the last 12 months was 260k

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-defy-predictions-to-rise-2-2-in-2020-1.4483071#:~:text=The%20Central%20Statistics%20Office%20(CSO,median%20price%20at%20%E2%82%AC380%2C000.

Are you saying this because people cant buy in areas like Dublin where there is high demand and that there is a p1ss poor supply along with a stop/slow down of new builds in the last 12 months. The data would suggest that the median house price is less than what a median worker can afford.

random_banter

fliball123 wrote: »

Still a good 20% off 2007

There was a house newly listed in South Dublin today asking €685k. After a google I saw an article showing it for sale in 2006 with an asking of €950k. :eek: With neighbouring houses of similar build going for between €550-650k in the last two years.

Bass Reeves

Villa05 wrote: »

There wasn't too many developments caught in 08 in Limerick either that I can think off. There was 1 on the killmallock road

LDA are talking about building 2000 units in Limerick, that's a fairly significant stock addition for a city that size

The really big developments were selling as you build. However there was a few small developments there around Dooradoyle and the UHL caught but they were all virtually finished . I think there was a few on the Cahirdavin side caught as well. In the city environs there was no unfinished estates. The county was a different matter and it stretched into Clare and Tipp as well.

fliball123

random_banter wrote: »

There was a house newly listed in South Dublin today asking €685. After a google I saw an article showing it for sale in 2006 with an asking of €950. :eek: With neighbouring houses of similar build going for between €550-650 in the last two years.

has the house been upgraded in anyway taking a one off is not really useful the average will show we are still 20% or so off the peak. If its asking it might not get that. Compare actual prices when sold

random_banter

fliball123 wrote: »

has the house been upgraded in anyway taking a one off is not really useful the average will show we are still 20% or so off the peak. If its asking it might not get that. Compare actual prices when sold

I keep a very close eye on the PPR however this is a brand new listing so time will tell, and I'm aware that one off's aren't useful, it's why I keep a spreadsheet of all properties of interest in the area and their asking v. actual selling prices, building it up over time.

The house was "refurbished" according to the Irish Times in 2006, and according to the new listing is has recently been refurbished again. However I was startled by the 950k asking price in 2006. Both were cosmetic, not structural. Even original presses upstairs from the 50's have been just repainted. Shows how crazy things were then, as the asking currently even seems a little high when things are very crazy now with demand etc.

Also, this is a standard 120sq m 3 bed semi-D with no extension. Not a mini-mansion by any standard.

PropQueries

Given that they want to put calories on menus (maybe it's the law already?) and we have BER ratings etc., isn't it about time that all new builds have a similar breakdown of the costs of the house someone is buying.

Split it up into site cost, the states overall tax take, cost of the windows, doors, the few blocks it actually takes to build the 6 or 7 walls in a new house etc.

Then, at least people will have an idea of both the value and the true cost of whatever new built house they're buying and it would lead to a proper and informed debate on the issue?

Mic 1972

Wanderer78 wrote: »

far less than what it is, we re now in a situation whereby the average earner, particularly younger generations trying to gain access to these markets, simply cannot, we re in big trouble!

We are moving towards of a model where less and less people will own a property and will instead depend on the state. People are easier to control when they have to depend

RichardAnd

I'm sure that some have seen things like this in the past months:

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/62-lohunda-downs-clonsilla-dublin-d15-ch7k

For those who have not seen this, this is essentially eBay for houses. After joining that site, one can bid on whatever property they so desire. I believe that one must provide proof of funds, but that site allows for the bids on a property to be racked up without even the onerous task of making a phone-call.

Will this become obsolete with the return of physical viewings, or is there a paradigm shift at work?

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

During the crash in 08 and the 3/4 years after houses floored at a price level that was way lower than the price the properties were built for. The market post 2012/2013 there was a correction for this crash once the ecconomy started getting back to some normality

The crash was a correction for the madness that preceeded it. We are returning to the prices of the peak of the madness aided by various government policy that require multiple state handouts to maintain that price

Normality is being restored, but in an Irish context, normality is madness

We are on the same page we just took different routes

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

Given that they want to put calories on menus (maybe it's the law already?) and we have BER ratings etc., isn't it about time that all new builds have a similar breakdown of the costs of the house someone is buying.

This logic makes no sense at all
do you see the breakdown of the cost for shopping and cooking on the menu?

Wanderer78

fliball123 wrote:

Are you saying this because people cant buy in areas like Dublin where there is high demand and that there is a p1ss poor supply along with a stop/slow down of new builds in the last 12 months. The data would suggest that the median house price is less than what a median worker can afford.

No, I'm saying this because it's our reality, many younger generations are getting stuck in the 20-30k income brackets, baring in mind, many of those are currently stuck in their current property situations, I.e. Family home and rental sector, this is in fact a serious problem for us all, this is now potentially effecting every aspect of our economy. This is what is meant by the term 'social mobility', I. E. They're stuck, so we re all stuck, and the fact that these outcomes undermine an entire economy

Mic 1972 wrote:

We are moving towards of a model where less and less people will own a property and will instead depend on the state. People are easier to control when they have to depend

It's important to realise the complexities involved in this, this isn't state control, but plutocratic control, primarily from the fire sectors (finance, insurance and real estate)

Villa05 wrote:

The crash was a correction for the madness that preceeded it. We are returning to the prices of the peak of the madness aided by various government policy that require multiple state handouts to maintain that price

Yup, this is deliberately done, but the disturbing fact is, our government and their advisors don't truly understand the complexities involved, and their part in this mess

RichardAnd

RichardAnd wrote: »

I'm sure that some have seen things like this in the past months:

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/62-lohunda-downs-clonsilla-dublin-d15-ch7k

For those who have not seen this, this is essentially eBay for houses. After joining that site, one can bid on whatever property they so desire. I believe that one must provide proof of funds, but that site allows for the bids on a property to be racked up without even the onerous task of making a phone-call.

Will this become obsolete with the return of physical viewings, or is there a paradigm shift at work?

This site has been around a few years, long before covid.
It's a cheap way for people to sell and it's great to actually see the bids.
I think it's around for a long time

PropQueries

Wanderer78 wrote: »

No, I'm saying this because it's our reality, many younger generations are getting stuck in the 20-30k income brackets, baring in mind, many of those are currently stuck in their current property situations, I.e. Family home and rental sector, this is in fact a serious problem for us all, this is now potentially effecting every aspect of our economy. This is what is meant by the term 'social mobility', I. E. They're stuck, so we re all stuck, and the fact that these outcomes undermine an entire economy



It's important to realise the complexities involved in this, this isn't state control, but plutocratic control, primarily from the fire sectors (finance, insurance and real estate)



Yup, this is deliberately done, but the disturbing fact is, our government and their advisors don't truly understand the complexities involved, and their part in this mess

I've come to the conclusion that the government and their advisors actually fully understand what they're doing.

They have known of the waiting list problem since 2015. Did they build many houses to resolve it? No. The waiting list wasn't going to magically disappear. The only logical end-game would have been to buy/lease/rent houses from the private market.

Otherwise, we have to draw the conclusion that the state intended to have tens of thousands of families literally homeless by 2020 and I don't believe they planned on that which means the current buying/leasing/renting from the private market was most likely planned several years ago IMO

I think many of us may have missed that one and well done on them getting away with it IMO

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

The crash was a correction for the madness that preceeded it. We are returning to the prices of the peak of the madness aided by various government policy that require multiple state handouts to maintain that price

Normality is being restored, but in an Irish context, normality is madness

We are on the same page we just took different routes

Yes but it over corrected prices in some places were down 70%

fliball123

Wanderer78 wrote: »

No, I'm saying this because it's our reality, many younger generations are getting stuck in the 20-30k income brackets, baring in mind, many of those are currently stuck in their current property situations, I.e. Family home and rental sector, this is in fact a serious problem for us all, this is now potentially effecting every aspect of our economy. This is what is meant by the term 'social mobility', I. E. They're stuck, so we re all stuck, and the fact that these outcomes undermine an entire economy



It's important to realise the complexities involved in this, this isn't state control, but plutocratic control, primarily from the fire sectors (finance, insurance and real estate)



Yup, this is deliberately done, but the disturbing fact is, our government and their advisors don't truly understand the complexities involved, and their part in this mess

Hang on the younger generation always started on lower incomes and always had to bide their time and save to buy.

The attitude now is sow their wild oats, nights out, weekends away, travel , buy the latest iphone, go on 3/4 foreign holidays a year, get a bigger/newer car. This was not always the case when you look back to previous generations. There are also more kids going to college now then there ever was back when I grew up. If you meet someone when I was in my late teens and they said they were in college they would look the person sideways as college was always seen as for the rich.

If you look at the data

More money spent on travel/holidays
More money spendt on cars
More people going to college
More money spent on luxuries like iphones.
More money spent on take aways/restaurants/hotels etc

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Hang on the younger generation always started on lower incomes and always had to bide their time and save to buy.

The attitude now is sow their wild oats, nights out, weekends away, travel , but the latest iphone, go on 3/4 foreign holidays a year, get a bigger/newer car. This was not always the case when you look back to previous generations. There are also more kids going to college now then there ever was back when I grew up. If you meet someone when I was in my late teens and they said they were in college they would look the person sideways as college was always seen as for the rich.

If you look at the data

More money spent on travel/holidays
More money spendt on cars
More people going to college
More money spent on luxuries like iphones.
More money spent on take aways/restaurants/hotels etc

I don't remember my parents begrudging me when I had a telephone, a walkman and two TV's, with one in the bedroom.

My grandparents didn't begrudge my parents having proper indoor plumbing

In my 20's and 30's, I had much much more than the current generation and at a much younger age.

It also cost us the same on domestic holidays as it does the current generation going to Spain etc. We can thank Ryanair for that.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't remember my parents begrudging me when I had a telephone, a walkman and two TV's, with one in the bedroom.

My grandparents didn't begrudge my parents having proper indoor plumbing

In my 20's and 30's, I had much much more than the current generation and at a much younger age.

It also cost us the same on domestic holidays as it does the current generation going to Spain etc. We can thank Ryanair for that.

Fair play to you , well I have about half a dozen nieces and nephews in the 20 to 30 bracket and its all about the better car, next holiday, latest iphone etc not one of them have moved out of the nest and only one (a niece hitting 30 next month) currently saving hard to get a house and saving hard for her over the last 3 years has meant a new car last year and before covid she went on 3 foreign holidays in 2019 and 2018.

Are you sure it costs the same for a domestic or foreign holiday now ?? Also we (when I was a teen/twenties) sure as hell didnt go away 3/4 times a year.

Not saying its easy to save, its very hard but the current generation are a generation of wanting things immediately if not sooner. I dont begrudge them anything but at the same they cant expect to buy a property without going through a bit of pain on the saving side and cutting back.

timmyntc

fliball123 wrote: »

Fair play to you , well I have about half a dozen nieces and nephews in the 20 to 30 bracket and its all about the better car, next holiday, latest iphone etc not one of them have moved out of the nest and only one (a nice hitting 30 next month) currently saving hard to get a house and saving hard for her over the last 3 years has meant a new car last year and before covid she went on 3 foreign holidays in 2019 and 2018.

Are you sure it costs the same for a domestic or foreign holiday now ?? Also we (when I was a teen/twenties) sure as hell didnt go away 3/4 times a year.

Not saying its easy to save, its very hard but the current generation are a generation of wanting things immediately if not sooner.

This is the same generalizations the last generation made about the generation before them!

The reality is most people are not like that, and the stats can prove as much. Just as many people living on finance in the older generations than the newer.
This is the avocado toast argument all over again!

Thomasirl123

fliball123 wrote: »

Hang on the younger generation always started on lower incomes and always had to bide their time and save to buy.

The attitude now is sow their wild oats, nights out, weekends away, travel , buy the latest iphone, go on 3/4 foreign holidays a year, get a bigger/newer car. This was not always the case when you look back to previous generations. There are also more kids going to college now then there ever was back when I grew up. If you meet someone when I was in my late teens and they said they were in college they would look the person sideways as college was always seen as for the rich.

If you look at the data

More money spent on travel/holidays
More money spendt on cars
More people going to college
More money spent on luxuries like iphones.
More money spent on take aways/restaurants/hotels etc

Can I see the data for this? I'm sure there's other things that can be inferred from it.

But I'd guess you're comparing apples with oranges.

From a NERI paper:
In 1987, a house cost an average of 3.1 times a young couple's net income, or the amount left after taxes were paid. At the height of the boom, in 2007, it had increased to 6.3 times, and stood at 4.1 times in 2014, the most recent year for which figures are available.

fliball123

Thomasirl123 wrote: »

Can I see the data for this? I'm sure there's other things that can be inferred from it.

But I'd guess you're comparing apples with oranges.

From a NERI paper:
In 1987, a house cost an average of 3.1 times a young couple's net income, or the amount left after taxes were paid. At the height of the boom, in 2007, it had increased to 6.3 times, and stood at 4.1 times in 2014, the most recent year for which figures are available.

We are still a good bit away from the heights of the boom in 2007 (20% is what most commentators are saying) I did a quick calc using the median wage and median house price in 2021 on this thread a couple of pages back.

Thomasirl123

fliball123 wrote: »

We are still a good bit away from the heights of the boom in 2007 (20% is what most commentators are saying) I did a quick calc using the median wage and median house price in 2021 on this thread a couple of pages back.

So you're talking rubbish?

fliball123

timmyntc wrote: »

This is the same generalizations the last generation made about the generation before them!

The reality is most people are not like that, and the stats can prove as much. Just as many people living on finance in the older generations than the newer.
This is the avocado toast argument all over again!

Well I can only draw on the experience I am having with my family around me. None of them like avo-toast by the way. I am sure there are some who save hard and dont go out and dont spend on any luxuries as well.