2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

L1011

schmittel wrote: »

Of course there is. For instance that the projected need from 22 - 28 is significantly less than the zoned lands provide for.

As per the Dept of Housing, quoted in the Irish Times article which makes no mention of infrastructure.

The projected need is from the National Planning Framework (as explicitly stated in the article) and is based on available infrastructure. So no, that's not a reason on its own.

This is all about infrastructure. There is no coherent other reason anyone can give, because there simply isn't one. And it cannot be used to support a conspiracy theory about there being no demand - zoning uses for which there is no demand are of no concern, but zoning land for which there is demand and no infrastructure to support it is a serious problem.

I am similarly not going to continue to engage with you on this.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

Where of who says there is no need for excess units vs there is not the infrastructure for excess units? The Irish times article refers to the ESRI estimates out to 2040 - to me that’s what the regulator is going by? What were ESRI estimates for the country - 30k-40k per year for the country? More than 2.5k per year for dun laoire alone sounds a lot?

It’s an area of c. 126sq.km. with the best transport links in the country (luas, dart, bus network, roads etc.) right next to Dublin City and apparently they’re not allowed to build more than c. 2,500 new homes per year in the whole area going forward because of a lack of infrastructure.

That’s an amazing story IMO

The_Conductor

Hubertj wrote: »

I presume they would. Some parts of DLR are well served by public transport - DART, 46A, 7 etc. I believe dart will expand services over time Further west there is the luas, n11, m50 etc. but they all have capacity issues. Then you also have to consider congestion in different parts of DLR. they made changes to road layouts in dun laoire last year and I think some people say it made traffic worse...

Its akin to declaring war on cars- they have lots of new cycling infrastructure- but have blocked off the road from blackrock to Seapoint- its now one way.

If you know the back roads, you're ok, but for anyone who is used to the main coast road from Blackrock- its simply not an option any longer.

And all of this is before you even begin to talk about the quite incredible parking regime in Dunlaoghaire itself- which was killing local traders even before Covid came along.

I have serious issues with a lot of what DLR have done over the past decade- they certainly haven't helped businesses or residents- or anyone trying to get to or from the general area.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Where of who says there is no need for excess units vs there is not the infrastructure for excess units? The Irish times article refers to the ESRI estimates out to 2040 - to me that’s what the regulator is going by? What were ESRI estimates for the country - 30k-40k per year for the country? More than 2.5k per year for dun laoire alone sounds a lot?

From the article:

The letter said the council’s proposal to zone some 22,800 housing units – including part of the Cherrywood strategic development zone – was “significantly in excess of housing supply targets” calculated in line with guidelines that Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien published in December.

“As the office estimates the housing supply target for the county to be in the region of 15,000 for the plan period, the proposed land use zoning is based on an excess of 6,800 units, which would indicate that excessive lands are proposed to be zoned under the draft plan,” it said.

It does not get plainer than that. Are we looking at a different articles? I don't see any reference to the ESRI targets there?

c.p.w.g.w

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, the planning regulator is telling Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown to scale back on the amount of land zoned for housing by 7,000 units.

So, the council has the land to build on and apparently want it built upon, but the planning regulator says there won't be enough demand to meet that amount of housing.

We either have a housing shortage or we don't. Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown county council has obviously identified enough land to build an additional 7,000 homes over that period, but the planning regulator says those homes aren't needed.

Am I reading the article wrong?

How are the services locally, are they sufficient for 7,000 more households...genuine question...

You see in parts of Clare, were they have built housing estates in small villages, with no public transport and very limited amenities and they wonder why the young kids participate in anti social behaviour

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

It’s an area of c. 126sq.km. with the best transport links in the country (luas, dart, bus network, roads etc.) right next to Dublin City and apparently they’re not allowed to build more than c. 2,500 new homes per year in the whole area going forward because of a lack of infrastructure.

That’s an amazing story IMO

Is it? , how many new homes do we build a year ? 25-30k? And you think one already densely populated tiny patch should comprise more than 7.5-10% of that total ?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

From the article:



It does not get plainer than that. Are we looking at a different articles? I don't see any reference to the ESRI targets there?

The article states “ The December targets reflect an assessment of national housing demand to 2040 by the Economic and Social Research Institute that was commissioned by the Government.” Doesn’t get any plainer than that.

So that indicates to me they have targets for areas, regions etc and believe there are too many proposed for DLR. I presume they prefer to increase population across a number of regions vs loading too much onto DLR. also consider DLRs prices are higher than a lot of other regions so that needs to be factored in.

The_Conductor

PropQueries wrote: »

It’s an area of c. 126sq.km. with the best transport links in the country (luas, dart, bus network, roads etc.) right next to Dublin City and apparently they’re not allowed to build more than c. 2,500 new homes per year in the whole area going forward because of a lack of infrastructure.

That’s an amazing story IMO

Its a 38 minute drive on the R118 from Dunlaoghaire to the city centre (13km) this evening. Thats without traffic. Check AA roadwatch.

It may be 124sq. km (excluding the harbour) however, the fact of the matter is- much of the transport infrastructure is soaked already (I don't know if you've spent any time on the M50 in the general area in the morning or evening- certain junctions are just an appalling mess- Carrickmines is notorious, but its by no means the only one. Add into this mess a lot Green Party TD who is a cycling enthusiast- and the writing is clearly and unambiguously on the wall.

Yes- it may have DART and Luas infrastructure- however, the DART hasn't been properly upgraded in over 20 years- and the Luas is capacity constrained.

DLRCoCo are supposed to take the following into account when deciding their development plans:

• Asset Test - Are there enough communityresources, such as schools etc. with spare capacity?
  
• Carrying Capacity Test - Is the environmental setting capable of absorbing development in terms of drainage and other critical infrastructure etc?
  
• Transport Test - Is there potential for reinforcing usage of public transport, walking and cycling?
  
• Economic Development Test - Is there potential to ensure integration between the location of housing and employment?
  
• Character Test - Will the proposal reinforce a sense of place and character?
  
• Community Test - Will the proposal reinforce the integrity and vitality of the local community and services that can be provided?
  
• Integration Test - Will the proposal aid an integrated approach to catering for the housing needs of all sections of society?

These are taken directly from the National Spatial Strategy Plan.
They appear to have wholly ignored these requirements- for no good reason whatsoever.

PropQueries

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its a 38 minute drive on the R118 from Dunlaoghaire to the city centre (13km) this evening. Thats without traffic. Check AA roadwatch.

It may be 124sq. km (excluding the harbour) however, the fact of the matter is- much of the transport infrastructure is soaked already (I don't know if you've spent any time on the M50 in the general area in the morning or evening- certain junctions are just an appalling mess- Carrickmines is notorious, but its by no means the only one. Add into this mess a lot Green Party TD who is a cycling enthusiast- and the writing is clearly and unambiguously on the wall.

Yes- it may have DART and Luas infrastructure- however, the DART hasn't been properly upgraded in over 20 years- and the Luas is capacity constrained.

DLRCoCo are supposed to take the following into account when deciding their development plans:

• Asset Test - Are there enough communityresources, such as schools etc. with spare capacity?
  
• Carrying Capacity Test - Is the environmental setting capable of absorbing development in terms of drainage and other critical infrastructure etc?
  
• Transport Test - Is there potential for reinforcing usage of public transport, walking and cycling?
  
• Economic Development Test - Is there potential to ensure integration between the location of housing and employment?
  
• Character Test - Will the proposal reinforce a sense of place and character?
  
• Community Test - Will the proposal reinforce the integrity and vitality of the local community and services that can be provided?
  
• Integration Test - Will the proposal aid an integrated approach to catering for the housing needs of all sections of society?

These are taken directly from the National Spatial Strategy Plan.
They appear to have wholly ignored these requirements- for no good reason whatsoever.

So, we can’t build more than c. 2,500 new homes per annum on the 126sq.km. of land, with the best transport links in the country, right next to Dublin City center. We can’t (or shouldn’t) build in areas south of DLR because that’s considered “urban sprawl”. Where does the state expect new homes to be built?

I just find it stunning that we can’t build more than c. 2,500 new homes per year in this 126sq.km. area due to a lack of infrastructure.

I’m genuinely shocked as I don’t believe the infrastructure is much better in any of the other three council areas in Co. Dublin.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

So, we can’t build more than c. 2,500 new homes per annum on the 126sq.km. of land, with the best transport links in the country, right next to Dublin City center. We can’t (or shouldn’t) build in areas south of DLR because that’s considered “urban sprawl”. Where does the state expect new homes to be built?

I just find it stunning that we can’t build more than c. 2,500 new homes per year in this 126sq.km. area due to a lack of infrastructure.

I’m genuinely shocked as I don’t believe the infrastructure is much better in any of the other three council areas in Co. Dublin.

Again do you think a material percentage of our new builds in the country should be in one small pocket ? That’s unaffordable for the majority ?

The infrastructure in most places can’t cope with the new houses, Donabate is a prime example.

Our lack of capital investment is very apparent now.

I can’t imagine greystones is coping all that well with all the new housing estates either.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

The article states “ The December targets reflect an assessment of national housing demand to 2040 by the Economic and Social Research Institute that was commissioned by the Government.” Doesn’t get any plainer than that.

So that indicates to me they have targets for areas, regions etc and believe there are too many proposed for DLR. I presume they prefer to increase population across a number of regions vs loading too much onto DLR. also consider DLRs prices are higher than a lot of other regions so that needs to be factored in.

Fair enough, my bad, the ESRI are there, plain as day.

So yes the Dept's targets are based on the ESRI assessment on national housing demand.

So the question is what where the guidelines that were used to calculate the DLR demand? Was it based on available local infrastructure or local housing need?

I don't think it is unreasonable to read that article and interpret it as the excess being surplus to local need.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

Again do you think a material percentage of our new builds in the country should be in one small pocket ? That’s unaffordable for the majority ?

The infrastructure in most places can’t cope with the new houses, Donabate is a prime example.

Our lack of capital investment is very apparent now.

I can’t imagine greystones is coping all that well with all the new housing estates either.

In a 126sq.km. area right next to Dublin City centre with the best transport links in the country? Yes, I do believe that’s exactly where a material percentage of new builds should be taking place.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

In a 126sq.km. area right next to Dublin City centre with the best transport links in the country? Yes, I do believe that’s exactly where a material percentage of new builds should be taking place.

But you said everyone will be moving out of Dublin ?

And the only way it’s affordable to people is if your predictions come true , at the moment it’s looking unlikely

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

But you said everyone will be moving out of Dublin ?

And the only way it’s affordable to people is if your predictions come true , at the moment it’s looking unlikely

Very true and I still stand by that. However, I’m still shocked that we’re not allowed build more than c. 2,500 new homes per year in all of DLR due to a lack of infrastructure.

The_Conductor

PropQueries wrote: »

So, we can’t build more than c. 2,500 new homes per annum on the 126sq.km. of land, with the best transport links in the country, right next to Dublin City center. We can’t (or shouldn’t) build in areas south of DLR because that’s considered “urban sprawl”. Where does the state expect new homes to be built?

I just find it stunning that we can’t build more than c. 2,500 new homes per year in this 126sq.km. area due to a lack of infrastructure.

I’m genuinely shocked as I don’t believe the infrastructure is much better in any of the other three council areas in Co. Dublin.

Thats just it though- it doesn't have the best transport links in the country.
There have been issues with the transport links highlighted as far back as 2002 (in the 2002-2010 plan). It hasn't improved since. Just because in your opinion it has the best transport links in the country- doesn't make it so. It has serious capacity constraints- and in the boom years of 2002-2010 it added 17827 dwellings to the county tally.

You're not going to admit it- but there are serious capacity issues.
DLR may be close to Dublin (12-13km depending on what you call the city centre)- but on a relatively peaceful evening, inbound, you will average 20km per hour driving. Some local politicians view this as a success- as it means more people might be tempted to cycle- however, thats kind of missing the point.

Yes- it has access to the DART, the LUAS and the M50- however, if these resources are at capacity- it may as well advertise hackney cabs with alicorns pulling them under a shooting star to a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow- it doesn't make it so.

Proximity to an asset does not mean you can utilise the asset- if the asset is already at its carrying capacity. Its not a difficult concept in all honesty.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Fair enough, my bad, the ESRI are there, plain as day.

So yes the Dept's targets are based on the ESRI assessment on national housing demand.

So the question is what where the guidelines that were used to calculate the DLR demand? Was it based on available local infrastructure or local housing need?

I don't think it is unreasonable to read that article and interpret it as the excess being surplus to local need.

I presume DLR projections are x% of national projections with additional variables factored in - infrastructure, population spread, etc. Surely people wouldn’t think you should be able to build as many units as you want in an area with no proper planning?

I do think it’s unreasonable to interpret the article as you suggest. Common sense really I think.

The_Conductor

PropQueries wrote: »

Very true and I still stand by that. However, I’m still shocked that we’re not allowed build more than c. 2,500 new homes per year in all of DLR due to a lack of infrastructure.

2,500 per annum in DLR, if at a commensurate density in the rest of Dublin (around 920km2), would add >9k units to Dublin (city and county) per annum. Dublin already has far and away the highest density housing in Ireland (at approx. 1170.67 people per square km). Its not high in an international context- however, Dublin's issue is sprawl.

If we are to construct 9k units per annum in Dublin- should we be encouraging more sprawl with 2.6 cars per dwelling in DLR- or should we be building high rise high density units centrally located in Dublin proper, where presumably a significant portion of the residents could commute by shank's mare?

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I presume DLR projections are x% of national projections with additional variables factored in - infrastructure, population spread, etc. Surely people wouldn’t think you should be able to build as many units as you want in an area with no proper planning?

No of course I don't think we should just build whatever we want and overload the infrastructure, but that's not what the article says or suggests.

It specifically refers "most 7,000 more housing units than needed"

The ESRI makes housing need projections based on demographics, immigration etc., not on what the infrastructure can cope with.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

No of course I don't think we should just build whatever we want and overload the infrastructure, but that's not what the article says or suggests.

It specifically refers "most 7,000 more housing units than needed"

The ESRI makes housing need projections based on demographics, immigration etc., not on what the infrastructure can cope with.

ESRI doesn’t consider infrastructure when considering projections for housing need in diffferent regions? Surely they would factor that in with all other variables?

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

ESRI doesn’t consider infrastructure when considering projections for housing need in diffferent regions? Surely they would factor that in with all other variables?

In this instance they were commissioned to project national housing need at local authority level - demographic demand driven. Nothing appears to be in the brief as to whether the the various junctions of the M50 can cope with that need.

See for yourself - https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/RS111.pdf

Correctly so, IMO. If we were to model demand projections the other way around, we'd need state population control measures or forced internal migration to ensure our infrastructure is not overburdened.

Also worth reading is the Minister's December guidelines and housing need targets. You'll notice that whilst he mentions the importance of local infrastructure, the guidelines and targets are not driven by whether or not the infrastructure can cope but by the ESRI projections.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

In this instance they were commissioned to project national housing need at local authority level - demographic demand driven. Nothing appears to be in the brief as to whether the the various junctions of the M50 can cope with that need.

See for yourself - https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/RS111.pdf

Correctly so, IMO. If we were to model demand projections the other way around, we'd need state population control measures or forced internal migration to ensure our infrastructure is not overburdened.

Also worth reading is the Minister's December guidelines and housing need targets. You'll notice that whilst he mentions the importance of local infrastructure, the guidelines and targets are not driven by whether or not the infrastructure can cope but by the ESRI projections.

I’ll take your word for it. ESRI publications on a Saturday evening isn’t for me.

Someone posted this on LinkedIn . Article on population movement in part of US in 2020.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/04/19/upshot/how-the-pandemic-did-and-didnt-change-moves.html

PropQueries

So, what’s the consensus here?

Is the Department of Housing telling DLR county council that they can’t build more than c. 2,500 new homes a year on their c. 126sq.km. area right next to Dublin City centre because of a lack of infrastructure or is the Department of Housing telling DLR county council that they can’t build more than c. 2,500 new homes per year because there’s no demand for more than c. 2,500 new homes per year in all of DLR?

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

So, what’s the consensus here?

Is the Department of Housing telling DLR county council that they can’t build more than c. 2,500 new homes a year on their c. 126sq.km. area right next to Dublin City centre because of a lack of infrastructure or is the Department of Housing telling DLR county council that they can’t build more than c. 2,500 new homes per year because there’s no demand for more than c. 2,500 new homes per year in all of DLR?

The latter doesn’t really make sense to me so I’d assume the former. If there was anywhere in the country you could add supply and it would sell its DLR.

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

So, what’s the consensus here?

Is the Department of Housing telling DLR county council that they can’t build more than c. 2,500 new homes a year on their c. 126sq.km. area right next to Dublin City centre because of a lack of infrastructure or is the Department of Housing telling DLR county council that they can’t build more than c. 2,500 new homes per year because there’s no demand for more than c. 2,500 new homes per year in all of DLR?

A bit of both. They're telling DLR there is no need (demand) for more than that this side of 2028, so they should stick to that number for this development plan. It is reasonable to infer that advice is in interests of sustainable planning.

What the IT reported was that the development plan was zoning for an excess of supply over demand.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

A bit of both. They're telling DLR there is no need (demand) for more than that this side of 2028, so they should stick to that number for this development plan. It is reasonable to infer that advice is in interests of sustainable planning.

What the IT reported was that the development plan was zoning for an excess of supply over demand.

That’s the impression I got as well.

But if it is “infrastructure”, which I don’t fully buy, all the Governments new build housing targets are absolutely meaningless as DLR has the best infrastructure of any area in Ireland, bar none IMO

Are the residents living in the 126sq.km. area that is DLR, right next to Dublin City centre, really thinking they have an infrastructure deficit compared to the likes of e.g. Swords, Lucan, Blanchardstown, Lusk etc.?

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

That’s the impression I got as well.

But if it is “infrastructure”, which I don’t fully buy, all the Governments new build housing targets are absolutely meaningless as DLR has the best infrastructure of any area in Ireland, bar none IMO

Are the residents living in the 126sq.km. area that is DLR, right next to Dublin City centre, really thinking they have an infrastructure deficit compared to the likes of e.g. Swords, Lucan, Blanchardstown, Lusk etc.

Wouldn't surprise if it is also to ensure capital and resources are allocated most efficiently.

If there is an excess of zoned land in DLR, available finance and construction will just concentrate on DLR leading to oversupply in this area and undersupply elsewhere.

If there is a housing shortage, in tackling it the scarcest resource is time. No point spending a lot of time building houses that are not needed in one area, when resources could be better allocated providing houses that are needed in another area.

There's more to it than roundabouts and junctions.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Wouldn't surprise if it is also to ensure capital and resources are allocated most efficiently.

If there is an excess of zoned land in DLR, available finance and construction will just concentrate on DLR leading to oversupply in this area and undersupply elsewhere.

If there is a housing shortage, in tackling it the scarcest resource is time. No point spending a lot of time building houses that are not needed in one area, when resources could be better allocated providing houses that are needed in another area.

There's more to it than roundabouts and junctions.

I’m sure many of the people who were forced to commute from Co. Kildare, Co. Meath, Co. Carlow, Co. Laois, Co. Wicklow etc. every day (pre-covid) would disagree?

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

That’s the impression I got as well. But if it is “infrastructure”, which I don’t fully buy, all the Governments new build housing targets are absolutely meaningless as DLR has the best infrastructure of any area in Ireland, bar none IMO

Are the residents living in the 126sq.km. area that is DLR, right next to Dublin City centre, really thinking they have an infrastructure deficit compared to the likes of e.g. Swords, Lucan, Blanchardstown, Lusk etc.

No DLR has not unlimited infrastructure. As well if DLR population expands what impact will it have on Dart and LUAS commuter's further along the rail lines.

LUAS and Dart capacity are u Der pressure anyway. While demand may be stronger in DLR area planning dictates that we do not have a situation that we have buses, dart and Luas trains full to capacity 2-3 miles from the CC and unable to pickup other commuters.

Proper planning is to spread development over a wider area and not overload infracture in any one area

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

No DLR has not unlimited infrastructure. As well if DLR population expands what impact will it have on Dart and LUAS commuter's further along the rail lines.

LUAS and Dart capacity are u Der pressure anyway. While demand may be stronger in DLR area planning dictates that we do not have a situation that we have buses, dart and Luas trains full to capacity 2-3 miles from the CC and unable to pickup other commuters.

Proper planning is to spread development over a wider area and not overload infracture in any one area

That’s a new argument urban sprawl is now good?

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

I’m sure many of the people who were forced to commute from Co. Kildare, Co. Meath, Co. Carlow, Co. Laois, Co. Wicklow etc. every day (pre-covid) would disagree?

I think the ESRI have said there is not much demand in some of these places either! Of course Kildare CC already knew that which is why they unzoned some of their zoned lands!