2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Amadan Dubh

Hubertj wrote: »

irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/detached-d%C3%BAn-laoghaire-georgian-with-room-to-improve-for-1-7m-1.4548083

I know this house needs modernising but I really like it. It has a lot of potential and there is so much space.

Honestly I'd choose this place in Booterstown for 1.5m over the Dún Laoghaire place (can't post links yet so just copy and paste it in).

daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-2-woodbine-park-booterstown-co-dublin/3150059

Awkwardstroke

Folks for the prices (+1.5 million) of these two spots, I’d prefer an Italian villa or French Chateau!

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Honestly I'd choose this place in Booterstown for 1.5m over the Dún Laoghaire place (can't post links yet so just copy and paste it in).

daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-2-woodbine-park-booterstown-co-dublin/3150059

PropQueries

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

The Currency, "Your new neighbour is JP Morgan: why global capital is piling into Irish social housing"

thecurrency.news/articles/44909/your-new-neighbour-is-jp-morgan-why-global-capital-is-piling-into-irish-social-housing/

Extracts;



Ignoring the destitute state of the Irish property market for a moment (and without going into detail as to why there is a bubble once again) which has lead to this situation where big money is piling into social housing as it is so lucrative, how is this going to be paid for except by local councils raising property taxes for homeowners? To date, the government has been funneling the exchequer cash to institutionals via local councils by using these social housing leases, but that has been fine as the finances have been in good shape the last few years. But I don't see how the current levels of spending are sustainable post-covid except by new funding models, including an increase in property taxes for homeowners. At the same time, FF and FG voter base is dependent on these homeowners, not faceless institutionals who cannot vote. It's like they want to lose the next election so that they can blame SF for this slow motion car crash.

Just looking at their contributors and they’re all among the top journalists/ columnists in Ireland.

The editor, Ian Kehoe, was behind that RTÉ documentary back in 2017 called The Great Irish Sell Off.

The link to all their main contributors is here: https://thecurrency.news/about/

Basically a who’s who of the top financial and economic correspondents in Ireland over the past few years.

Amadan Dubh

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/covid-damage-to-dublin-s-hotels-to-be-offset-by-multinational-growth-1.4548118?mode=amp

Some fantastic hopeless optimism from CBRE which expects the top 10 MNCs to double headcount in the next few years which will then mean that the hotel bubble doesn't pop!

So much for that optimism on business travel to fill those hotel rooms in Dublin.

ft.com/content/b50d7754-b257-4c5b-88b8-886fb19366b3

Europe’s largest banks are planning to slash business travel permanently by as much as half from pre-pandemic levels after the coronavirus crisis recedes, as many of the new ways of remote working developed during lockdown become the norm.

Senior bankers are keen to learn from the lessons of the past year to cut costs and bolster their green credentials, but the plans will be worrying for airlines and hospitality groups that rely heavily on business travel for profits and are hoping for a swift recovery once restrictions are lifted.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Just looking at their contributors and they’re all among the top journalists/ columnists in Ireland.

The editor, Ian Kehoe, was behind that RTÉ documentary back in 2017 called The Great Irish Sell Off.

The link to all their main contributors is here: https://thecurrency.news/about/

Basically a who’s who of the top financial and economic correspondents in Ireland over the past few years.

You should subscribe and support them it’s an excellent website

PropQueries

In a follow up to that article in The Currency yesterday, according to the Irish Times today:

"Dublin social housing portfolio guiding at €21m. Project Haven comprises 60 apartments and houses let to local authorities for 25 years".

"The properties comprise an equal mix of houses and apartments distributed across residential schemes located in the main in Finglas, Tallaght and Blanchardstown. Each property within the portfolio has been fully refurbished and let by way of a standard lease for a term of 25 years, directly to the relevant local authority in each area. Index-linked rent reviews are provided for in every third year."

The very last line of the article states explicitly that: "Allied Irish Property is not a part of, or associated with, AIB bank."

To make it clear in the article that this is not, in any way, associated with AIB is very telling about what the public really think of these agreements and their impact on the property market IMO

Link to article in Irish Times today: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/dublin-social-housing-portfolio-guiding-at-21m-1.4549153

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

Just to add. That’s potentially c. 60k new built units over 2019, 2020 and 2021.

Now add in, say, 15k units per annum in potential probate sales. So that’s over c. 100k new homes that may be available over 2019, 2020 and 2021 or enough to house c. 300k people based on an average of one couple and a child per unit.

Not bad supply over the period given our population is still less than 5 million people?

I see you are picking Figures out of your ar5e again for the fun if it. 15 k houses through probate. are not new houses. Many will never come to market. There have been houses coming into the system through probate always and ever. Many have people already living in them. Many would need a complete retrofitting.

Another post from you that has brown sticky bits on it

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I see you are picking Figures out of your ar5e again for the fun if it. 15 k houses through probate. are not new houses. Many will never come to market. There have been houses coming into the system through probate always and ever. Many have people already living in them. Many would need a complete retrofitting.

Another post from you that has brown sticky bits on it

I purposely used 15,000 as an extremely low figure so you couldn't say something like that

Barry Cowen put the potential figure at c. 26,000 two years ago. According to The Journal:

"Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate."

So, with the backlog, it's most likely going to be much more than 15,000 entering supply per annum going forward IMO

Link to Barry Cowen article on The Journal here: https://www.thejournal.ie/probate-2-3870061-Feb2018/

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

I purposely used 15,000 as an extremely low figure so you couldn't say something like that

Barry Cowen put the potential figure at c. 26,000 two years ago. According to The Journal:

"Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate."

So, with the backlog, it's most likely going to be much more than 15,000 per annum going forward IMO

Link to Barry Cowen article on The Journal here: https://www.thejournal.ie/probate-2-3870061-Feb2018/

I am not say people do not die, what I am saying is that these cannot be considered as new houses. The figures have brown sticky bits on the them from you as usual. Private can take 2+ years in many cases.

And again I reiterate these are not new houses. Most will either have a person living in them or need retrofitting. As well many older people live in smaller houses that were bud in the 50's and 60's

L1011

The housing obsolescence rate - houses permanently removed from the supply - in Ireland has been calculated as a tad under 7k a year, and much of that is going to be houses that are not in liveable condition when someone dies

https://www.housing.eolasmagazine.ie/the-challenge-of-housing-obsolescence/

Regardless of where they come from, they need to be netted off the number of new builds / probate sales that do occur / renovations from empty to get an accurate figure of the change to supply.

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I am not say people do not die, what I am saying is that these cannot be considered as new houses. The figures have brown sticky bits on the them from you as usual. Private can take 2+ years in many cases.

And again I reiterate these are not new houses. Most will either have a person living in them or need retrofitting. As well many older people live in smaller houses that were bud in the 50's and 60's

I guess all those houses build in the 50's and 60's in areas like South Dublin are fairly small...

However, Lisney Auctioneers would disagree with you. In 2019, Lisney stated " Executor sales also made up 27% of sales" in Dublin.

Link to Lisney analysis here: https://lisney.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Q4_2019-Dublin-Residential.pdf

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

The housing obsolescence rate - houses permanently removed from the supply - in Ireland has been calculated as a tad under 7k a year, and much of that is going to be houses that are not in liveable condition when someone dies

https://www.housing.eolasmagazine.ie/the-challenge-of-housing-obsolescence/

Regardless of where they come from, they need to be netted off the number of new builds / probate sales that do occur / renovations from empty to get an accurate figure of the change to supply.

So Barry Cowen, Lisney Auctioneers etc. etc. are all now wrong with their figures and probate sales have little or no impact on the supply of housing entering prime areas in our major cities and towns where families would like to live?

Maybe. But doubtful IMO

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

So Barry Cowen, Lisney Auctioneers etc. etc. are all now wrong with their figures and probate sales have little or no impact on the supply of housing entering prime areas in our major cities and towns where families would like to live?

Maybe. But doubtful IMO

Barry Cowans figures were back of a barmat and unsourced, with huge obvious omissions from the data (how many of those dying are married? How many of those dying have adult children already living in the home?)

Lisneys figure is a percentage of their sales. They are a specialist operator with a specific geographic coverage

You continue to grasp for anything you can to support what is only an opinion, and an extremely poorly justified one at that. You really need to understand the concept of confirmation bias before attempting to cite a source.

Also, nobody but you brought up "little or no" impact - just that your figures are unsourced and unreliable. Stop trying to alter the argument to match your position.

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

Barry Cowans figures were back of a barmat and unsourced, with huge obvious omissions from the data (how many of those dying are married? How many od those dying have adult children already living in the home?)

Lisneys figure is a percentage of their sales. They are a specialist operator with a specific geographic coverage

You continue to grasp for anything you can to support what is only an opinion, and an extremely poorly justified one at that. You really need to understand the concept of confirmation bias before attempting to cite a source.

And, that's why I put IMO at the end when I'm providing my particular viewpoint on any article etc. It's up to others, like you, to decide if my opinion is right or if not (which may be possible), to explain why

Without adding opinions, we're all just copying and pasting news links back and forth to each other all day

L1011

Slapping "IMO" after something does not make it immune from criticism.

Twisting the argument to try suit your position, as you attempted to there, is never acceptable

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

Slapping "IMO" after something does not make it immune from criticism.

Twisting the argument to try suit your position, as you attempted to there, is never acceptable

All I know is that Barry Cowen did state "Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate." and Lisney Auctioneers did state that "Executor sales also made up 27% of sales".

I guess people can make up their own minds on whether they believe what Barry Cowen and Lisney stated was true or not I guess.

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

All I know is that Barry Cowen did state "Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate." and Lisney Auctioneers did state that "Executor sales also made up 27% of sales".

I guess people can make up their own minds on whether they believe what Barry Cowen and Lisney stated was true or not I guess.

Neither of those statements actually backs your claimed figure up, though. Not in the slightest.

They can be true and they still don't support your 15k per annum returning to the market as habitable. But they both have significant omissions as presented.

The Lisney figure is specifically for their sales. Not the market. And the Cowen figure does not have any way of showing how many of those houses are empty.

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

I guess all those houses build in the 50's and 60's in areas like South Dublin are fairly small...

However, Lisney Auctioneers would disagree with you. In 2019, Lisney stated " Executor sales also made up 27% of sales" in Dublin.

Link to Lisney analysis here: https://lisney.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Q4_2019-Dublin-Residential.pdf

Not all these houses are in South Dublin or North Dublin either. May will be in rural area's. Not far from me is what was a nice bungalow 15 years ago. Owner passed away 3-4 years ago. She was in a nursing home for 6-8 previous to that. How was supposedly sold 2 years ago deal fell through because of septic tank and internal plumbing issues meant buyers could not secure a mortgage on it. What was a picturesque garden is now covered in briars that are up against the he walks of the house.

Towns and villages in Ireland are full of small family homes that are vacant as lads wait for there price. Most need complete revamps. It much the same in cities not everyone lived in a South Dublin large 3-4 bed detached or semi detached. Not even in those large terraced houses in the leafy suburbs either.

L1011

Those long termers would often be double counted if you assume all probate sales are additional supply - the electrical reconnection would be considered an add to the housing stock also!

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

Those long termers would often be double counted if you assume all probate sales are additional supply - the electrical reconnection would be considered an add to the housing stock also!

My understanding is that ESB reconnections are only counted if the electricity has been shut off for more than two years. I don't believe many families fully turn off the ESB connection while an elderly parent or relative is in a nursing home, while they're waiting for probate etc.

I also wouldn't believe many of the funds who purchased properties would cancel the ESB connection even if noone was living there IMO

For the sake of a few euro a month, they're most likely to leave it connected IMO

RichardAnd

PropQueries wrote: »

All I know is that Barry Cowen did state "Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate." and Lisney Auctioneers did state that "Executor sales also made up 27% of sales".

I guess people can make up their own minds on whether they believe what Barry Cowen and Lisney stated was true or not I guess.

He's right about the death figures at least. I don't know about the home ownership percentage, but it would seem reasonable to me given that most of those who die are elderly, and most elderly people own their home.

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

My understanding is that ESB reconnections are only counted if the electricity has been shut off for more than two years. I don't believe many families fully turn off the ESB connection while an elderly parent or relative is in a nursing home, while they're waiting for probate etc.

I also wouldn't believe many of the funds who purchased properties would cancel the ESB connection even if noone was living there IMO

For the sake of a few euro a month, they're most likely to leave it connected IMO

You didn't actually read and understand my post before replying to it, I see.

PropQueries

PropQueries wrote: »

In a follow up to that article in The Currency yesterday, according to the Irish Times today:

"Dublin social housing portfolio guiding at €21m. Project Haven comprises 60 apartments and houses let to local authorities for 25 years".

"The properties comprise an equal mix of houses and apartments distributed across residential schemes located in the main in Finglas, Tallaght and Blanchardstown. Each property within the portfolio has been fully refurbished and let by way of a standard lease for a term of 25 years, directly to the relevant local authority in each area. Index-linked rent reviews are provided for in every third year."

The very last line of the article states explicitly that: "Allied Irish Property is not a part of, or associated with, AIB bank."

To make it clear in the article that this is not, in any way, associated with AIB is very telling about what the public really think of these agreements and their impact on the property market IMO

Link to article in Irish Times today: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/dublin-social-housing-portfolio-guiding-at-21m-1.4549153

Would it be wrong to assume that the many of the above 60 homes would have been available to either FTB's, private renters etc. if the local councils wasn't signing 25 year lease agreements?

And, this is just one small sample IMO

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

My understanding is that ESB reconnections are only counted if the electricity has been shut off for more than two years. I don't believe many families fully turn off the ESB connection while an elderly parent or relative is in a nursing home, while they're waiting for probate etc.

I also wouldn't believe many of the funds who purchased properties would cancel the ESB connection even if noone was living there IMO

For the sake of a few euro a month, they're most likely to leave it connected IMO

If the electrical supply is turned off in a house longer than gan six months you have to get it certified before reconnection. This is becoming a huge issue in older houses. It usually necessitate a complete rewire and maybe reconnection. The cost can run into thousands.

When private drags on or even at probate unless the inheritor keeps the connection supply paid up it is very easy for the 6 months to run out. A executor may actually turn it FF the supply in cases where there is no designated inheritor ot if it's a group inheritance and these people do not take over the bill. The cost should not be transferred to other inheritors

hometruths

L1011 wrote: »

The housing obsolescence rate - houses permanently removed from the supply - in Ireland has been calculated as a tad under 7k a year, and much of that is going to be houses that are not in liveable condition when someone dies

https://www.housing.eolasmagazine.ie/the-challenge-of-housing-obsolescence/

Regardless of where they come from, they need to be netted off the number of new builds / probate sales that do occur / renovations from empty to get an accurate figure of the change to supply.

The 7k figure you mention from the source you linked is based on numbers from 2011 - 2016. it is probably helpful to use more up to date figures.

Geodirectory reports total housing stock of 2,014,357 in Dec 2019 vs 2,042,426 in Dec 20

This is an increase in housing stock of just over 28,000.

If we got 21,000 new builds in 2020, where are the other 7k houses coming from?

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

If the electrical supply is turned off in a house longer than gan six months you have to get it certified before reconnection. This is becoming a huge issue in older houses. It usually necessitate a complete rewire and maybe reconnection. The cost can run into thousands.

When private drags on or even at probate unless the inheritor keeps the connection supply paid up it is very easy for the 6 months to run out. A executor may actually turn it FF the supply in cases where there is no designated inheritor ot if it's a group inheritance and these people do not take over the bill. The cost should not be transferred to other inheritors

I'm sure e.g. funds or professionals involved in the probate process would be well aware of such issues and such potential costs and it gives e.g. funds an incentive or in relation to probate, to advise the families that they should spend the few euro a month to keep the connection on so such costs won't be incurred when they do decide to sell, rent out in the private market or sign a 25 year lease agreement with the council?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

The 7k figure you mention from the source you linked is based on numbers from 2011 - 2016. it is probably helpful to use more up to date figures.

Geodirectory reports total housing stock of 2,014,357 in Dec 2019 vs 2,042,426 in Dec 20

This is an increase in housing stock of just over 28,000.

If we got 21,000 new builds in 2020, where are the other 7k houses coming from?

As long as we are happy to count on data partly gathered by postmen. I wouldn’t rely on some postmen to be able to count to 10 in my experience. Oh and IMO ðŸ˜႒

L1011

schmittel wrote: »

The 7k figure you mention from the source you linked is based on numbers from 2011 - 2016. it is probably helpful to use more up to date figures.

Geodirectory reports total housing stock of 2,014,357 in Dec 2019 vs 2,042,426 in Dec 20

This is an increase in housing stock of just over 28,000.

If we got 21,000 new builds in 2020, where are the other 7k houses coming from?

In what context do you think those Geodirectory figures have any relevance here? My post was specifically on obsolescence figures.

Because there isn't one. They're not in any way connected.

There is a lot of number-flinging in this thread without any comprehension of what is relevant.

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

In what context do you think those Geodirectory figures have any relevance here? My post was specifically on obsolescence figures.

Because there isn't one. They're not in any way connected.

There is a lot of number-flinging in this thread without any comprehension of what is relevant.

Well, I provided two links. One to Barry Cowen and one to Lisney Auctioneers.

Where's your links? To be fair, I don't even require links to take someone's opposing view on board. Just a coherent argument on why both Barry Cowen and Lisney are wrong and that you're right.

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, I provided two links. One to Barry Cowen and one to Lisney Auctioneers.

Where's your links? To be fair, I don't even require links to take someone's opposing view on board. Just a coherent argument on why both Barry Cowen and Lisney are wrong and that you're right.

You are still wildly missing the point to the level that I think its completely deliberate.

Both figures can be right and still do nothing to support your 15,000 claim.

Working out how many people who died owned a house does not mean that many houses will go on sale

Providing a figure from one estate agent for their sales does not give a figure for the full market.

Providing links is not the be all and end all, as shown here - your links do not give the information required to verify your figure


The data you have given here does not provide any method to come to the answer you claim it does.