2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

It is amazing how much of the data relating to our housing market apparently cannot be trusted.

We've heard on here that the CSO cannot be trusted to measure vacancies, but apparently GeoDirectory can.

And we're told whilst GeoDirectory can be considered competent to measure vacant properties they cannot be trusted to measure occupied ones!

The best available data can be either be trusted or it cannot, we cannot pick and choose what data is reliable depending on our confirmation bias.

If the data can be trusted, most of it points to the fact that our housing shortage/crisis is nothing like as bad as we are led to believe.

If it cannot be trusted, then how can we be sure that our housing shortage/crisis is as bad as we are led to believe?

one thing i dont get re the geodirectory info is that it says 21k new addresses were added but its saying 28k extra houses, how does that work, are the 7k that you believe are obsolete stock brought back to habitability already addresses but not counted in the number of properties?

Claw Hammer

Villa05 wrote: »

I think the question is answered in this Irish Times podcast podcat 8 minutes in. The contributer questions if there is a supply crisis



Covid 19 impact on the housing market



Student accomodation

Restoration of previously vacant property

Ghost estates from the last bubble finding buyers

(Figures provided in the podcast)



Shame some critical points/and posters are getting shut down

That podcast goes back to last July. A lot of water has gone under the bridge since.

PropQueries

Claw Hammer wrote: »

That podcast goes back to last July. A lot of water has gone under the bridge since.

What water though?

We built c. 21k new a-rated homes last year. Goodbody stated this week that we will most likely build c. 21k new a-rated units this year despite covid.

Link to Goodbody housing predictions for 2021 here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/impact-of-lockdown-on-housing-output-less-than-initially-feared-says-goodbody-1.4548937

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

one thing i dont get re the geodirectory info is that it says 21k new addresses were added but its saying 28k extra houses, how does that work, are the 7k that you believe are obsolete stock brought back to habitability already addresses but not counted in the number of properties?

Yes, exactly. Would you agree that is the obvious conclusion?

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, exactly. Would you agree that is the obvious conclusion?

if thats how their reporting works then yes it is a conclusion one could draw, do they confirm that anywhere?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

It is amazing how much of the data relating to our housing market apparently cannot be trusted.

We've heard on here that the CSO cannot be trusted to measure vacancies, but apparently GeoDirectory can.

And we're told whilst GeoDirectory can be considered competent to measure vacant properties they cannot be trusted to measure occupied ones!

The best available data can be either be trusted or it cannot, we cannot pick and choose what data is reliable depending on our confirmation bias.

If the data can be trusted, most of it points to the fact that our housing shortage/crisis is nothing like as bad as we are led to believe.

If it cannot be trusted, then how can we be sure that our housing shortage/crisis is as bad as we are led to believe?

I’m simply pointing out that we are relying on postmen to provide data points for something that is very important. That’s not really good enough and further highlights the failure of public services. But it is just my opinion.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

if thats how their reporting works then yes it is a conclusion one could draw, do they confirm that anywhere?

Yes they confirm it, I've linked it on here before, but I'm currently on mobile so its not handy to trawl through geo reports again to relink it.

They make a distinction between total residential stock and total address points because if they consider house to be uninhabitable they do not count it as part of total residential stock. Makes total sense.

You say it is a conclusion one could draw. Out of interest what are the other conclusions one could draw?

Claw Hammer

PropQueries wrote: »

What water though?

We built c. 21k new a-rated homes last year. Goodbody stated this week that we will most likely build c. 21k new a-rated units this year despite covid.

Link to Goodbody housing predictions for 2021 here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/impact-of-lockdown-on-housing-output-less-than-initially-feared-says-goodbody-1.4548937

ESRI say 15k, Irish Homebuilders say 13K.
There are lies damned lies and statistics.
What is classed as a "home"? Does a bedroom in a co-living scheme or a student block count as a home?
Look at the drop in commencements. If the are no commencements there will be no completions.
It is also anticipated that there will be a labour shortage in the building industry when it fully re-opens.

PropQueries

Claw Hammer wrote: »

ESRI say 15k, Irish Homebuilders say 13K.
There are lies damned lies and statistics.
What is classed as a "home"? Does a bedroom in a co-living scheme or a student block count as a home?
Look at the drop in commencements. If the are no commencements there will be no completions.
It is also anticipated that there will be a labour shortage in the building industry when it fully re-opens.

I don't believe student accommodation units are included in the new dwelling completions and they are significant. For example, according to the CSO, new student beds completed since Q2 2016 was 10,742 as at Q4 2020.

If there is a construction labour shortage, then we don't need additional units to accommodate those workers. And, given both remote working and cuts to international business travel etc., we will definitely need less accommodation for all types of workers (from tourism to retail to offices) in Dublin going forward than was predicted pre-covid IMO

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

I think the question is answered in this Irish Times podcast podcat 8 minutes in. The contributer questions if there is a supply crisis



Covid 19 impact on the housing market



Student accomodation

Restoration of previously vacant property

Ghost estates from the last bubble finding buyers

(Figures provided in the podcast)



Shame some critical points/and posters are getting shut down

Thanks for sharing. Listens to a bit of it. While it is from last year it does highlight Some interesting insights provided by savils especially on the number of student beds, etc added on top of new builds. Data driven insights are very informative. Much better than linking an article and extrapolating fiction from it.

Villa05

Villa05 wrote: »

LDA are talking about building 2000 units in Limerick, that's a fairly significant stock addition for a city that size

Pat Kenny had a report from Limerick over the last 2 shows (Mon, Tue) it mainly focused on the regeneration projects. It was revealed on the report that over 1,000 houses were demolished and i would be in agreement with one of the residents on the report in saying there was nothing wrong with the houses that were knocked. An insulation upgrade and those houses would be fine. Many of these estates have more grrenspace than private estates



Meanwhile very little was built and families were dispersed all over Limerick city/county also houses which it was obvious needed demolition were left standing. I suspect these were linked to crime and were not demolished for fear of reprisal.


The person who oversaw Limerick regeneration is now at DCC, claiming we cant build anything for under 400k



Oddly enough the report is not available on podcast yet

Villa05

Villa05 wrote: »

the Financial regulator is not a criminal law expert

Fraudulent activity by 16 members of the Senior management team
Obstruction of justice at every opportunity

Participating knowingly of activity that destroys shareholder value

Deceiving customers

Using positions of power to bypass internal controls that block such activity
Some of the participants are repeat offenders
Actions committed at a time when the country was getting off its knees from the damage done by the financial sector


What other skeletons are inside this organization with same been implicated in similar actions as far back as 1993. Forensic financial auditors from outside the country should be sent in given the nature of the fraud and who was perpetrating it

Intresting story on how the state deals with fraud depending on the perpretrator. Freezing of assets, CAB raid, Possesion of housing



I suppose the salient point from the David Mcwilliams podcast on Davys was that the Department of Justice had 100's of millions with Davy's now one would assume there source of revenue would be CAB.



funny how they would be seizing assets from one entity involved in fraud and placing it with another entity involved in same

PropQueries

Interesting analysis in the Dublin Inquirer today titled: "Mapping Dublin’s Growing Constellation of Company Landlords"

Of the apartments and homes they analysed, 76% already existed when the big institutional investor bought them i.e. they didn't add anything to Dublin's housing supply.

An interesting fund was Orange Capital Partners, where their portfolio includes "more than 530 apartments in inner-city Georgian terraces".

Link to article here: https://www.dublininquirer.com/2021/04/28/mapping-dublin-s-growing-constellation-of-company-landlords

It will be interesting if this apparent game of musical chairs eventually stops and who will be left without the chair.

Mic 1972

Villa05 wrote: »

I think the question is answered in this Irish Times podcast podcat 8 minutes in. The contributer questions if there is a supply crisis



Covid 19 impact on the housing market



Student accomodation

Restoration of previously vacant property

Ghost estates from the last bubble finding buyers

(Figures provided in the podcast)

Shame some critical points/and posters are getting shut down

the podcast is 1 year old, anything they said in it turned out the opposite to what they said.


mortgages continue to be offered, prices continue to raise

Mic 1972

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting analysis in the Dublin Inquirer today titled: "Mapping Dublin’s Growing Constellation of Company Landlords"

Of the apartments and homes they analysed, 76% already existed when the big institutional investor bought them i.e. they didn't add anything to Dublin's housing supply.

An interesting fund was Orange Capital Partners, where their portfolio includes "more than 530 apartments in inner-city Georgian terraces".

Link to article here: https://www.dublininquirer.com/2021/04/28/mapping-dublin-s-growing-constellation-of-company-landlords

It will be interesting if this apparent game of musical chairs eventually stops and who will be left without the chair.

Not sure if you read the entire article, but they clearly stating that “Institutional investors tend to supply apartments at the premium end of the market, unsuitable for people on average incomes,”

and also

"the vast majority of rentals are still owned by landlords with a couple of properties here and there"

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting analysis in the Dublin Inquirer today titled: "Mapping Dublin’s Growing Constellation of Company Landlords"

Of the apartments and homes they analysed, 76% already existed when the big institutional investor bought them i.e. they didn't add anything to Dublin's housing supply.

An interesting fund was Orange Capital Partners, where their portfolio includes "more than 530 apartments in inner-city Georgian terraces".

Link to article here: https://www.dublininquirer.com/2021/04/28/mapping-dublin-s-growing-constellation-of-company-landlords

It will be interesting if this apparent game of musical chairs eventually stops and who will be left without the chair.

The embedded map of each REIT/funds properties is great for visualization

MacronvFrugals

Today's IT, similar to The Examiners piece a couple weeks ago highlighting the inevitable political change on the horizon, combine this with the looming global tax reforms and Ireland could have a very shaky few years ahead

Examiner Quote:

France and Germany have now given their backing to the US proposal for the 21% minimum tax on multinational companies, adding momentum to efforts to overhaul global rules despite reluctance from some smaller European countries, including Ireland.

"Eye-watering rents extracted from younger generation in city centres are not sustainable"

Concentration of property wealth in hands of a few will bring political change

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/eye-watering-rents-extracted-from-younger-generation-in-city-centres-are-not-sustainable-1.4549215?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fopinion%2Feye-watering-rents-extracted-from-younger-generation-in-city-centres-are-not-sustainable-1.4549215

Cal4567

Browney7 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/time-has-come-for-institutional-investment-to-address-the-affordable-housing-crisis-1.4547814?mode=amp

Interesting timing for Savills putting this out today after the currency's piece yesterday.

The author's view that the state can't fund housing construction itself despite the fact the state could raise 3.5bn of 20 year debt at a yield just a touch under 0.6% 2 weeks ago makes her conclusion a little tenuous in my view. Fair play to institutional investment taking the Irish state for a ride with a nice yield enhancement

Savills would be acting for these investors, so this is little more than an advert. Regrettably yet another example of the media going off to get expert advice. We normally see it from estate agents being quoted how it's all positive out there in buying property land.

if she's going to talk about other investors, she's want to throw the credit unions into that conversation. Their social aims at least can be aligned with the social purpose of the approved housing bodies.

Villa05

Mic 1972 wrote:

the podcast is 1 year old, anything they said in it turned out the opposite to what they said.

Claw Hammer wrote:

That podcast goes back to last July. A lot of water has gone under the bridge since.

It was posted to answer 1 question. The difference between new build numbers and geodirectory numbers.

The views on the podcast were widely held views at the time. The fact that the state and reits are buying up premium properties for social housing would throw a grenade in anyone's predictions on the price direction of property.

Browney7

Cal4567 wrote: »

Savills would be acting for these investors, so this is little more than an advert. Regrettably yet another example of the media going off to get expert advice. We normally see it from estate agents being quoted how it's all positive out there in buying property land.

if she's going to talk about other investors, she's want to throw the credit unions into that conversation. Their social aims at least can be aligned with the social purpose of the approved housing bodies.

An advertorial if ever there was. It's her job at the end of the day to keep the fee income flowing and dress up the state as being helpless and that we should be thankful for these benevolent capital sources and we all need to don the green jersey

Hubertj

Browney7 wrote: »

An advertorial if ever there was. It's her job at the end of the day to keep the fee income flowing and dress up the state as being helpless and that we should be thankful for these benevolent capital sources and we all need to don the green jersey

While the author and their occupation is clearly stated surely it should be an “opinion” piece similar to other article on the IT?

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I’m simply pointing out that we are relying on postmen to provide data points for something that is very important. That’s not really good enough and further highlights the failure of public services. But it is just my opinion.

Are postal workers the perfect foot soldiers to determine for certain that a previously vacant address is now occupied

Browney7 wrote:

An advertorial if ever there was. It's her job at the end of the day to keep the fee income flowing and dress up the state as being helpless and that we should be thankful for these benevolent capital sources and we all need to don the green jersey

The first line in the article kind of gives it away. Commending the government on their policies to increase housing affordability citing shared ownership.
Every independent analyst were concerned it would do the opposite

Cyrus

This seems reasonable value compared to some of the other stuff that has come on at a similar price point, nice location

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/3-woodview-mount-merrion-avenue-blackrock-co-dublin/4497977

woejus

The Grove, Killiney Hill Road

Finally sold! From 2019 €4.5m ask, on PPR for €1.485m (probably the house part only)

2 acres, about 40 bathrooms, lingering smell of wee

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

This seems reasonable value compared to some of the other stuff that has come on at a similar price point, nice location

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/3-woodview-mount-merrion-avenue-blackrock-co-dublin/4497977

Agreed, although for that money you'd ideally want a bit more seperation from the footpath and a better parking situation. But given the location I'd agree it looks reasonable.

Came on almost the exact same time as this, which I think (unless I'm missing something), is the most bonkers asking price I've seen in quite some time. If that makes €1.2m it's time to pack it in.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/arus-mhuire-proby-square-blackrock-co-dublin/4497974

awec

Cyrus wrote: »

This seems reasonable value compared to some of the other stuff that has come on at a similar price point, nice location

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/3-woodview-mount-merrion-avenue-blackrock-co-dublin/4497977

It's not as big as it looks from the outside photo.

Love the block of parmesan on the kitchen counter. The kitchen is very meh IMO.

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

Agreed, although for that money you'd ideally want a bit more seperation from the footpath and a better parking situation. But given the location I'd agree it looks reasonable.

Came on almost the exact same time as this, which I think (unless I'm missing something), is the most bonkers asking price I've seen in quite some time. If that makes €1.2m it's time to pack it in.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/arus-mhuire-proby-square-blackrock-co-dublin/4497974

yes thats what i was thinking of when i said reasonable value!

the parking is a bit of a compromise but you have 2 very usable spaces, plenty of houses in blackrock for that kind of money where 2 cars is a tight squeeze and one is normally blocked in

Cyrus

awec wrote: »

It's not as big as it looks from the outside photo.

Love the block of parmesan on the kitchen counter. The kitchen is very meh IMO.

kitchen is meh but its probably 12-13 years old at this stage, thats the part of the house that needs the work but its liveable for a while at the same time.

Cyrus

woejus wrote: »

The Grove, Killiney Hill Road

Finally sold! From 2019 €4.5m ask, on PPR for €1.485m (probably the house part only)

2 acres, about 40 bathrooms, lingering smell of wee

wow, its some place in fairness but your pockets would want to be seriously deep

id imagine youd want another 2-3m to get that place right, im not sure if the land would have gone seperately, its not as if youd get planning for an estate on it...

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Agreed, although for that money you'd ideally want a bit more seperation from the footpath and a better parking situation. But given the location I'd agree it looks reasonable.

Came on almost the exact same time as this, which I think (unless I'm missing something), is the most bonkers asking price I've seen in quite some time. If that makes €1.2m it's time to pack it in.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/arus-mhuire-proby-square-blackrock-co-dublin/4497974

That’s a prime example of the sort of house I think that if sold as a family home, the next owner risks losing their shirt on it due to combination of shifting trends and demographics.