2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

Agreed, although for that money you'd ideally want a bit more seperation from the footpath and a better parking situation. But given the location I'd agree it looks reasonable.

Came on almost the exact same time as this, which I think (unless I'm missing something), is the most bonkers asking price I've seen in quite some time. If that makes €1.2m it's time to pack it in.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/arus-mhuire-proby-square-blackrock-co-dublin/4497974

€1.2m for pretty much a shell. Looks to me like it needs modernising throughout. Detached though and good garden so would be a fine home when fully done. But how much would that cost?

DataDude

Hubertj wrote: »

€1.2m for pretty much a shell. Looks to me like it needs modernising throughout. Detached though and good garden so would be a fine home when fully done. But how much would that cost?

I'd say you'd need a minimum of 300k, probably more. At which point you have €1.5m+ 185sqm house on Proby Square (meh), with a nice but downward sloping north facing garden. The mind boggles.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

That’s a prime example of the sort of house I think that if sold as a family home, the next owner risks losing their shirt on it due to combination of shifting trends and demographics.

given that you would probably be into it for 1.6/1.7m at least i tend to agree.

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

I'd say you'd need a minimum of 300k, probably more. At which point you have €1.5m+ 185sqm house on Proby Square (meh), with a nice but downward sloping north facing garden. The mind boggles.

Probably an extension out the back too... there you are with the garden aspect again... I’m oblivious to it....again...

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Probably an extension out the back too... there you are with the garden aspect again... I’m oblivious to it....again...

When I'm next in the market for a house I'm going to ask DataDude to run his eye over the garden, and awec the kitchen, as part of my filtering ads process!

hometruths

Interestingly there were two separate items on Newstalk today (PK & Hard Shoulder) talking about whether or not we should be getting tougher on repossessions.

It seems to have been prompted by bonkers.ie research suggesting 46% are strongly in favour of a tougher stance

Is the penny finally starting to drop that we need to get on top of this problem?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Interestingly there were two separate items on Newstalk today (PK & Hard Shoulder) talking about whether or not we should be getting tougher on repossessions.

It seems to have been prompted by bonkers.ie research suggesting 46% are strongly in favour of a tougher stance

Is the penny finally starting to drop that we need to get on top of this problem?

Just listened in. Needs more public discussion for the implications of not taking action. Depoliticise it and remove the populism and faux outrage that will eminate from the usual suspects

L1011

There would have to be someone leading the charge that isn't in the employ of a bank, as getting people to see past a general distrust of "the bankers" is going to be impossible

Consumer expert that can give actual calculated costs for instance.

Less immediately distrusted foreign lenders - mutuals maybe - explaining that this is why they won't write loans in Ireland could also help.

It's an exceptionally emotive issue so don't expect any politician at all to favour any changes unless there is massive support for them

Hubertj

L1011 wrote: »

There would have to be someone leading the charge that isn't in the employ of a bank, as getting people to see past a general distrust of "the bankers" is going to be impossible

Consumer expert that can give actual calculated costs for instance.

Less immediately distrusted foreign lenders - mutuals maybe - explaining that this is why they won't write loans in Ireland could also help.

It's an exceptionally emotive issue so don't expect any politician at all to favour any changes unless there is massive support for them

Yep. Lay it out...
X% rate without repossession
X-Y% rate with repossession
= €X lesss repayments over a 25 year term
Then let people decide

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Interestingly there were two separate items on Newstalk today (PK & Hard Shoulder) talking about whether or not we should be getting tougher on repossessions.

It seems to have been prompted by bonkers.ie research suggesting 46% are strongly in favour of a tougher stance

Is the penny finally starting to drop that we need to get on top of this problem?

I'm actually in favour of repossessions. In a properly functioning property market.

As long as who ever is repossessed can walk down the road and rent another property.

Before this is introduced the Government would need to introduce legislation that stops property hoarding and the state must have no involvement in buying, leasing or renting homes. They would also need to have removed the housing waiting lists by building social housing for all who require it IMO

Balluba

I see woodbine Cottage Killiney had an asking price of €550,000 in 2016. According to Auctioneera the current highest offer on it is 676,000.
That’s quite a big markup.

Taylor365

Balluba wrote: »

I see woodbine Cottage Killiney had an asking price of €550,000 in 2016. According to Auctioneera the current highest offer on it is 676,000.
That’s quite a big markup.

That's 5 years ago.


The average property price has doubled over the last 7 years. In 2014, a 1 bed in Dublin could be had for a little over 100k. Now they are over 200k.

hometruths

L1011 wrote: »

There would have to be someone leading the charge that isn't in the employ of a bank, as getting people to see past a general distrust of "the bankers" is going to be impossible

Consumer expert that can give actual calculated costs for instance.

Less immediately distrusted foreign lenders - mutuals maybe - explaining that this is why they won't write loans in Ireland could also help.

It's an exceptionally emotive issue so don't expect any politician at all to favour any changes unless there is massive support for them

Agree with all the above but it is crazy that we have allowed a situation to develop that now public trust and goodwill is required to allow repossessions.

It's an exceptionally emotive issue in Ireland because we've let the problem get out of control.

It's not an emotive issue at all in other countries. It's a very simple issue, people expect that if you do not pay your mortgage, the house will be repossessed.

What makes us different?

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Agree with all the above but it is crazy that we have allowed a situation to develop that now public trust and goodwill is required to allow repossessions.

It's an exceptionally emotive issue in Ireland because we've let the problem get out of control.

It's not an emotive issue at all in other countries. It's a very simple issue, people expect that if you do not pay your mortgage, the house will be repossessed.

What makes us different?

as you say for some reason we seem to focus on pat and mary as opposed to the population in general.

if someone could educate the population at large at how this impacts them they may have a shot, but i dont see any desire to do this from anyone politically.

Has anyone ever raised it?

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

as you say for some reason we seem to focus on pat and mary as opposed to the population in general.

if someone could educate the population at large at how this impacts them they may have a shot, but i dont see any desire to do this from anyone politically.

Has anyone ever raised it?

As far as I am aware no politician has ever dared raise any pro repossession arguments, plenty have gone the other way I know of.

I think it actually pretty straightforward to turn it into a positive political move, going after the worst offenders, acting for the greater good for all, proactive measures to reduce housing costs etc etc.

If a party sat down and said let's try and solve this and score political points in the process, there is no doubt they could do it.

L1011

schmittel wrote: »

What makes us different?

Famine and land agitation is more recent memory than many other countries, and more extensively taught, and that's what people think of when the term "eviction" is used

jill_valentine

schmittel wrote: »

Agree with all the above but it is crazy that we have allowed a situation to develop that now public trust and goodwill is required to allow repossessions.

It's an exceptionally emotive issue in Ireland because we've let the problem get out of control.

It's not an emotive issue at all in other countries. It's a very simple issue, people expect that if you do not pay your mortgage, the house will be repossessed.

What makes us different?

The experience of renting in Ireland is so uniformly miserable that the idea of sending somebody back into it once they sort-of have a property is abhorrent.

It's not a chicken and egg thing, the property market here was nuts long before repossession became a notable consideration. Regardless of how many would-be repossessed are chancers, asking Irish people to get on board with repossessing houses and sending people back to the tender mercies of slumlords charging 840 a month for this - https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/flat-cabra-road-phibsborough-dublin-7/3193063 - will remain indigestible until there's some assurance that every one of those properties won't just be hoovered up by more landlords and funds, and the former owners will have options better than living on the canal immediately available.

I absolutely recognise that tougher repossession is necessary, but we've a long way to go before it's the highest priority fix, and a lot of work to be done before it's viable.

Graham

jill_valentine wrote: »

asking Irish people to get on board with repossessing houses and sending people back to the tender mercies of slumlords charging 840 a month

While there are undoubtedly a number of properties of that type it's probably fair to suggest they're not a particularly representative examples.

Vestiapx

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm actually in favour of repossessions. In a properly functioning property market.

As long as who ever is repossessed can walk down the road and rent another property.

Before this is introduced the Government would need to introduce legislation that stops property hoarding and the state must have no involvement in buying, leasing or renting homes. They would also need to have removed the housing waiting lists by building social housing for all who require it IMO

Who requires social housing? Or is the question more who dosen't require social housing how do you decide who gets a house and who doesn't ? What are the criteria? I work I save I pay my deposit I pay my mortgage and I get my house but why don't I not save and not pay a mortgage and still get a house, what's the motivation for me ?

jill_valentine

Graham wrote: »

While there are undoubtedly a number of properties of that type it's probably fair to suggest they're not a particularly representative examples.

There are currently seven properties listed for rent on Daft in Dublin City under 700 euro and this is the cover photo of the first one. Most of the rest is student accommodation Joe Public is theoretically barred from.

It would certainly be representative of my experience though, I'd have to say. First flat had no windows and if you weren't there on the random day the landlord appeared to collect rent you couldn't buy tokens for the washing machine, so you're out of luck for the month. One of the places I looked at when moving from there required going through someone else's room to get to mine. Another had no lights in the room when I saw it because there was a problem with the electricity "valve". A subsequent landlord wouldn't send anyone out to look at a broken shower for a four days during a heatwave, and it took another two to get fixed. Current place had a hole in the roof for the guts of two years and the bathroom floor is starting to collapse.

The place my brother is living has a hole *in the wall* that means you can see passing traffic from the toilet. My sister's former place supplied a stack of books to replace the bedstead leg that was broken. A friend lived with an owner-occupier who had rules about what she was allowed to eat, another had a landlord who wouldn't reply to emergency messages like "there's water spraying out of the sink" for days, and only then to ask who it was. And so on and so on and so on, and all of that without accounting for the precarity of it, because if the landlord decides he can get more for the place his imaginary relative will materialise to take your room and you're out on your arse again.

Renting in Dublin is comparable to London in how dismal a lifestyle it is. I can tell you now that Germans and Swedes don't have multiples of those stories.

Graham

jill_valentine wrote: »

There are currently seven properties listed for rent on Daft in Dublin City under 700 euro and this is the cover photo of the first one. Most of the rest is student accommodation Joe Public is theoretically barred from.

Why would you assume that the occupants of a property that's under threat of repossession would automatically need to find a studio/1-bed property under €700?

I'd hazard a guess that we're talking mostly about family homes and although the state support is far from perfect I don't think the expectation would be families move into a studio apartment in Phibsboro.

It does make for very emotive imagery though however far from reality it might be.

combat14

Pandemic savings mean home sales to first-time buyers at highest since boom

It means that the buying and selling of homes is on a par with the level before the property market collapsed more than a decade ago.

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/pandemic-savings-mean-home-sales-to-first-time-buyers-at-highest-sinceboom-40368240.html


great to see our economy in such rude health before the covid and green taxes kick in

wonder how long the covid savings will last paying for over priced houses

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

Why would you assume that the occupants of a property that's under threat of repossession would automatically need to find a studio/1-bed property under €700?

I'd hazard a guess that we're talking mostly about family homes and although the state support is far from perfect I don't think the expectation would be families move into a studio apartment in Phibsboro.

It does make for very emotive imagery though however far from reality it might be.

So you're assuming that the families of repossessed homes would be ahead of the queue of the families currently living in hotels, hubs etc.?

Just in case people think families living in hotels has gone away, it was reported two weeks ago that: "Families using a north Dublin hotel for emergency accommodation are being forced to leave the premises after the local council decided to no longer use it to house them."

After local pressure, the Dublin Region Homeless Executive then stated that: "Families living in a Ballymun hotel that is to be no longer used as emergency accommodation are "not under pressure to move immediately".

That's nice of them

Link to article in Dublin Live here: https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/ballymun-hotel-emergency-accommodation-families-20439638

Cyrus

Graham wrote: »

Why would you assume that the occupants of a property that's under threat of repossession would automatically need to find a studio/1-bed property under €700?

I'd hazard a guess that we're talking mostly about family homes and although the state support is far from perfect I don't think the expectation would be families move into a studio apartment in Phibsboro.

It does make for very emotive imagery though however far from reality it might be.

This is generally what we get when people talk about repossessions unfortunately.

There are loads of things to attend to but correct repossession enforcement allayed with non recourse property lending would go a long way to cooling prices (as banks would tighten lending criteria) and decreasing margins on mortgages.

SmokyMo

Are there numbers or some study done that shows lack of repossessions is causing high interests being charged on Irish consumer + banks leaving?

Because from CB stats number of mortgage areas keeps falling year on year.
Plus people tend to ignore/not know that 'bad' mortgages get sold to vulture funds which you cannot just contact by phone if you want to restructure. Only by letter in many instances. Then in court they would state that customer is not engaging. I know personally of a number such scenarios that played out. I dont think banks hold many non performing residential mortgages on their books.

This whole repossession has a whiff of Leos welfare cheat cheats us all campaign. I d like to see the numbers back that up because I genuinely fail to see how that would move the market or housing stock?

flexcon

combat14 wrote: »

Pandemic savings mean home sales to first-time buyers at highest since boom

It means that the buying and selling of homes is on a par with the level before the property market collapsed more than a decade ago.

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/pandemic-savings-mean-home-sales-to-first-time-buyers-at-highest-sinceboom-40368240.html


great to see our economy in such rude health before the covid and green taxes kick in

wonder how long the covid savings will last paying for over priced houses

My biggest fear would be people borrowing their max rate - at a time when the interest rates are low-is. (historically low)

If interest rates doubled in the next ten years - Wow. What a situation we could have on our hands then?

JimmyVik

flexcon wrote: »

My biggest fear would be people borrowing their max rate - at a time when the interest rates are low-is. (historically low)

If interest rates doubled in the next ten years - Wow. What a situation we could have on our hands then?

You are right. If interest rates went up even 3% in the next decade or two it would be carnage. Even 2% at what people are paying these days for a house.

combat14

JimmyVik wrote: »

You are right. If interest rates went up even 3% in the next decade or two it would be carnage. Even 2% at what people are paying these days for a house.

perhaps we should leave repossession laws and rates the way they are so for all our sakes - higher interest rates here on high loan values would absolutely be carnage

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

So you're assuming that the families of repossessed homes would be ahead of the queue of the families currently living in hotels, hubs etc.?

No

Cyrus

SmokyMo wrote: »

Are there numbers or some study done that shows lack of repossessions is causing high interests being charged on Irish consumer + banks leaving?

Because from CB stats number of mortgage areas keeps falling year on year.
Plus people tend to ignore/not know that 'bad' mortgages get sold to vulture funds which you cannot just contact by phone if you want to restructure. Only by letter in many instances. Then in court they would state that customer is not engaging. I know personally of a number such scenarios that played out. I dont think banks hold many non performing residential mortgages on their books.

This whole repossession has a whiff of Leos welfare cheat cheats us all campaign. I d like to see the numbers back that up because I genuinely fail to see how that would move the market or housing stock?

Why do you think there are so few banks offering mortgages in Ireland and why do you think we pay higher margins than similar countries ?

Do you think people who don’t pay their mortgages should be allowed remain indefinitely?

Do you not thing non recourse loans (benefit to the consumer ) and swift repossessions (benefit to the lender ) would make more sense than what we have now ?