2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

cnocbui

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Are you in New Zealand yet?

No. Perhaps this time next year. I have two properties to sell, and that takes a long time in this country. There are glaciers that move faster. Not to mention travel restrictions.

PropQueries

Looks like the Housing Minister is doubling down on build-to-rent type models including "cost-rental" to solve the country's "housing crisis". But, it does appear that he's finally becoming concerned about the costs of his housing plan.

According to the Irish Times:

"Alternative funding for cost rental homes must be considered, Minister says... Over the longer term and in order to deliver on our objectives for cost rental, we must also consider a more expansive concept for the model. This would be one that is not overly reliant on public funding and I think that’s key"

Seems to me that someone has had a word in his ear regarding the costs of his housing "plan".

Let's hope Paschal and not John Fitzgerald is right and those Biden tax reforms end up only costing us c. €2 Billion per year and not c. €6 Billion or there may be some further difficult conversations (if they haven't had them already) with the housing minister come July/August IMO

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/alternative-funding-for-cost-rental-homes-must-be-considered-minister-says-1.4551405

Browney7

Galwayhurl wrote: »

Just saw this on Crazy Prices twitter. Mullen Park phases 2, 3 and 4 ALL sold to a REIT, Round Hill Capital.

That's dozens if not hundreds of houses off the market for FTBs now. When is this going to stop? Is it legally possible to stop REITS from buying up the whole country? It was done in Germany, was it not?

https://twitter.com/crazyhouseprice/status/1387790404163096576?s=20

You'd be thrilled if you bought in the earlier phase now having a REIT/Fund buy the next phase in bulk to rent them all to council on the enhanced leasing scheme or else HAP

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

Looks like the Housing Minister is doubling down on build-to-rent type models including "cost-rental" to solve the country's "housing crisis". But, it does appear that he's finally becoming concerned about the costs of his housing plan.

According to the Irish Times:

"Alternative funding for cost rental homes must be considered, Minister says... Over the longer term and in order to deliver on our objectives for cost rental, we must also consider a more expansive concept for the model. This would be one that is not overly reliant on public funding and I think that’s key"

Seems to me that someone has had a word in his ear regarding the costs of his housing "plan".

Let's hope Paschal and not John Fitzgerald is right and those Biden tax reforms end up only costing us c. €2 Billion per year and not c. €6 Billion or there may be some further difficult conversations (if they haven't had them already) with the housing minister come July/August IMO

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/alternative-funding-for-cost-rental-homes-must-be-considered-minister-says-1.4551405

If the entire purpose of the scheme is to provide housing at cost i.e for zero return on capital who on earth is going to fund it at zero return on capital if not the taxpayer?!

Bonkers. Particularly when an alternative scheme offering inflation linked market rents is on offer!!

Ursabear

Galwayhurl wrote: »

Just saw this on Crazy Prices twitter. Mullen Park phases 2, 3 and 4 ALL sold to a REIT, Round Hill Capital.

That's dozens if not hundreds of houses off the market for FTBs now. When is this going to stop? Is it legally possible to stop REITS from buying up the whole country? It was done in Germany, was it not?

https://twitter.com/crazyhouseprice/status/1387790404163096576?s=20

Yep , got the email today, shocking.

hometruths

Ursabear wrote: »

Yep , got the email today, shocking.

Did you buy in the development?

hmmm

schmittel wrote: »

If the entire purpose of the scheme is to provide housing at cost i.e for zero return on capital who on earth is going to fund it at zero return on capital if not the taxpayer?!

Bonkers. Particularly when an alternative scheme offering inflation linked market rents is on offer!!

If the government are guaranteeing rent for long term (20+ years) I can see that being attractive for pension funds.

It's expensive borrowing for the country though, the Government can borrow itself much more cheaply than getting a private investor to pay for it. I presume this is an attempt to keep the borrowing "off the books" so to speak.

Like everything here ultimately it's just taxpayer money, and even if the government makes a terrible deal it's easy to simply raise taxes.

hometruths

hmmm wrote: »

If the government are guaranteeing rent for long term (20+ years) I can see that being attractive for pension funds.

If the government have a scheme guaranteeing index linked market rents for 20+ years vs a scheme guaranteeing below market "cost rents" for 20+ how many pension funds are going to choose the cost rental investment?

The only scenario I can see this being an attractive long term investment is if the rents are set at a level which might be significantly below current market rent, but you think market rents will fall below the "cost rental" rate.

hmmm wrote: »

It's expensive borrowing for the country though, the Government can borrow itself much more cheaply than getting a private investor to pay for it. I presume this is an attempt to keep the borrowing "off the books" so to speak.

Like everything here ultimately it's just taxpayer money, and even if the government makes a terrible deal it's easy to simply raise taxes.

Nail on head. It's just a device to hide the cost to the taxpayer, and we will end up paying the cost to hide it. More bananas stuff.

Browney7

schmittel wrote: »

If the government have a scheme guaranteeing index linked market rents for 20+ years vs a scheme guaranteeing below market "cost rents" for 20+ how many pension funds are going to choose the cost rental investment?

The only scenario I can see this being an attractive long term investment is if the rents are set at a level which might be significantly below current market rent, but you think market rents will fall below the "cost rental" rate.



Nail on head. It's just a device to hide the cost to the taxpayer, and we will end up paying the cost to hide it. More bananas stuff.

And if you're very cynical it keeps the price of new builds up if not further increases them which helps property developers and their margins....but that's being cynical

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

If the government have a scheme guaranteeing index linked market rents for 20+ years vs a scheme guaranteeing below market "cost rents" for 20+ how many pension funds are going to choose the cost rental investment?

The only scenario I can see this being an attractive long term investment is if the rents are set at a level which might be significantly below current market rent, but you think market rents will fall below the "cost rental" rate.



Nail on head. It's just a device to hide the cost to the taxpayer, and we will end up paying the cost to hide it. More bananas stuff.

See no evil, hear no evil

mcsean2163

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/rossmore-16-corrig-avenue-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin-a96w206/4498024#&gid=1&pid=3

Does this look like good value? Looks to me like the interior needs a major refresh and possibly the structure may need to be reviewed. Any ideas what that would cost? Another €300k?

The layout seems a bit crazy. In order to get to the 'sun room', you must pass through bedroom 1.

Cyrus

what a site this is,

someone obviously ran out of cash

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/buena-vista-killiney-hill-road-killiney-co-dublin/4498408

Hubertj

mcsean2163 wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/rossmore-16-corrig-avenue-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin-a96w206/4498024#&gid=1&pid=3

Does this look like good value? Looks to me like the interior needs a major refresh and possibly the structure may need to be reviewed. Any ideas what that would cost? Another €300k?

The layout seems a bit crazy. In order to get to the 'sun room', you must pass through bedroom 1.

Considering the amount of work the place needs it looks expensive to me. Would it be a €1.5m gaff when full refurbished? I dunno.

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/rossmore-16-corrig-avenue-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin-a96w206/4498024#&gid=1&pid=3

Does this look like good value? Looks to me like the interior needs a major refresh and possibly the structure may need to be reviewed. Any ideas what that would cost? Another €300k?

The layout seems a bit crazy. In order to get to the 'sun room', you must pass through bedroom 1.

to be honest for me it needs too much work, i dont think 300k would get you there, and corrig avenue while fine isnt a prime road either.

i think for what it would stand you once completed its probably not great value at asking.

if you like DL and have the money to renovate that, id just buy this instead

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/9-royal-terrace-east-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin-a96r5v6/4457050

combat14

irish tax rates being highlighted once again today:

Ireland ‘stealing’ EU tax revenues, Nobel economist says

https://m.independent.ie/business/budget/ireland-stealing-eu-tax-revenues-nobel-economist-says-40371482.html


with bidens new corporate taxes also on the cards looks like our whole economic tax model will have to radically change, another red light flashing on the dash board for over priced houses

mcsean2163

Cyrus wrote: »

to be honest for me it needs too much work, i dont think 300k would get you there, and corrig avenue while fine isnt a prime road either.

i think for what it would stand you once completed its probably not great value at asking.

if you like DL and have the money to renovate that, id just buy this instead

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/9-royal-terrace-east-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin-a96r5v6/4457050

Tbh, neither seems great for kids but the one I listed has a decent back garden. Our budget is about 1.25 million at a stretch so could do some basics and then move in and finish renovations when coffers refilled.

My wife is all about DL, I don't know but if we're moving I'd rather do it and get it over with, sad to leave where we are, doesn't seem like great options, some mad prices. I guess there's a lot of rich people in Ireland.

It seems expensive to me considering the unusual layout and condition. Not sure if I could ever get used to having a bedroom beside the reception room.

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Tbh, neither seems great for kids but the one I listed has a decent back garden. Our budget is about 1.25 million at a stretch so could do some basics and then move in and finish renovations when coffers refilled.

My wife is all about DL, I don't know but if we're moving I'd rather do it and get it over with, sad to leave where we are, doesn't seem like great options, some mad prices. I guess there's a lot of rich people in Ireland.

It seems expensive to me considering the unusual layout and condition. Not sure if I could ever get used to having a bedroom beside the reception room.

if 1.25m is your top end i wouldnt go with that DL house tbh.

mcsean2163

combat14 wrote: »

irish tax rates being highlighted once again today:

Ireland ‘stealing’ EU tax revenues, Nobel economist says

https://m.independent.ie/business/budget/ireland-stealing-eu-tax-revenues-nobel-economist-says-40371482.html

Good. He's 100% correct. It's been a horrible policy for a very long time.

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

Let's hope Paschal and not John Fitzgerald is right and those Biden tax reforms end up only costing us c. €2 Billion per year and not c. €6 Billion or there may be some further difficult conversations (if they haven't had them already) with the housing minister come July/August IMO

You keep mentioning July/August as something of a turning point, but is there something happening at that time (other than US tax reforms) which you think will be a trigger for spending cuts, or is it just a general change of heart as new budget gets drawn up? Serious question, I am genuinely interested in your thoughts.

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Tbh, neither seems great for kids but the one I listed has a decent back garden. Our budget is about 1.25 million at a stretch so could do some basics and then move in and finish renovations when coffers refilled.

My wife is all about DL, I don't know but if we're moving I'd rather do it and get it over with, sad to leave where we are, doesn't seem like great options, some mad prices. I guess there's a lot of rich people in Ireland.

It seems expensive to me considering the unusual layout and condition. Not sure if I could ever get used to having a bedroom beside the reception room.

ill take a look at myhome later see if anything catches my eye in case you arent that familiar with the area.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

If the entire purpose of the scheme is to provide housing at cost i.e for zero return on capital who on earth is going to fund it at zero return on capital if not the taxpayer?!

Bonkers. Particularly when an alternative scheme offering inflation linked market rents is on offer!!

The Irish Independent has your answer.

“Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien is to allow international pension funds and other private investors to build ‘cost rental’ homes for profit”.

Link to article here: https://independent.ie/irish-news/news/private-investors-to-be-allowed-make-profit-on-cost-rental-homes-40371547.html

Villa05

cnocbui wrote:

No. Perhaps this time next year. I have two properties to sell, and that takes a long time in this country. There are glaciers that move faster. Not to mention travel restrictions.

Funny how they can sell in half an hour in Limerick

Cyrus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Tbh, neither seems great for kids but the one I listed has a decent back garden. Our budget is about 1.25 million at a stretch so could do some basics and then move in and finish renovations when coffers refilled.

My wife is all about DL, I don't know but if we're moving I'd rather do it and get it over with, sad to leave where we are, doesn't seem like great options, some mad prices. I guess there's a lot of rich people in Ireland.

It seems expensive to me considering the unusual layout and condition. Not sure if I could ever get used to having a bedroom beside the reception room.

Would you consider Rathmichael ?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/sylvanmount-house-rathmichael-dublin-18/4496757

Or if you are going for a fixer upper this would be better than the DL house

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/14-castlepark-road-sandycove-co-dublin/4496403

New build in killiney (very very close to ballybrack but nice development)

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/12-albany-killiney-hill-road-killiney-co-dublin-a96-x2f5/4494992

Or monkstown ?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/doneraile-carrickbrennan-road-monkstown-co-dublin/4492048

DataDude

mcsean2163 wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/rossmore-16-corrig-avenue-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin-a96w206/4498024#&gid=1&pid=3

Does this look like good value? Looks to me like the interior needs a major refresh and possibly the structure may need to be reviewed. Any ideas what that would cost? Another €300k?

The layout seems a bit crazy. In order to get to the 'sun room', you must pass through bedroom 1.

My take, for what it’s worth. We have a similar budget to you. I absolutely love that house (although I would actively avoid DL over all surrounding areas). That said, I consider that house way outside our budget. Think you’d need a budget of at least €1.5m to even bother enquiring on it. And at €1.5m it’s tight, €1.25m isn’t in the ballpark.

Edit - on question of value. Don’t know area specifically but it looks like value to me. Wouldn’t be surprised if it went well over asking.

Hubertj

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/ocean-s-rest-ballyrisode-goleen-west-cork/4472244

This is pretty cool. A bit too remote for me though

Amadan Dubh

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/ocean-s-rest-ballyrisode-goleen-west-cork/4472244

This is pretty cool. A bit too remote for me though

Cliffs of Moher visitor centre vibes.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/ocean-s-rest-ballyrisode-goleen-west-cork/4472244

This is pretty cool. A bit too remote for me though

Not so sure about that one. Quite taken with this though.
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-anchorage-guileen-whitegate-midleton-cork-p25x762/4498353

mcsean2163

Cyrus wrote: »

Would you consider Rathmichael ?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/sylvanmount-house-rathmichael-dublin-18/4496757

Or if you are going for a fixer upper this would be better than the DL house

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/14-castlepark-road-sandycove-co-dublin/4496403

New build in killiney (very very close to ballybrack but nice development)

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/12-albany-killiney-hill-road-killiney-co-dublin-a96-x2f5/4494992

Or monkstown ?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/doneraile-carrickbrennan-road-monkstown-co-dublin/4492048

Hi Cyrus, thanks for all your suggestions.

The Sandycove one looks best but also looks like they sold their back garden to a developer. We looked at rathmichael but it's right beside the M50 from a noise/ air pollution pov.

Our requirements.

- 4 bed preferably 5
- decent back garden with room for a dog
- Dun Laoighre area preferred
- ideally period house
- green area to play close by
- not on a main road

I've been looking at recently added for ages. I don't think we'll tick all the boxes but it does seem we'll need an extra few hundred grand.

Might be best to save a bit longer. Hard to envisage moving from somewhere that we're mostly happy to somewhere that looks worse but everything in Dun Laoighre seems to have that extra price premium.

combat14

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Good. He's 100% correct. It's been a horrible policy for a very long time.

absolutely nothing to stop other countries do the same in a free market world

DataDude

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Our requirements.

- 4 bed preferably 5
- decent back garden with room for a dog
- Dun Laoighre area preferred
- ideally period house
- green area to play close by
- not on a main road
.

Yep, you’ll need €1.5m+. We came to this conclusion and decided to give up on SCD altogether. Best of luck!