2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

C14N

PropQueries wrote: »

Cian O’Callaghan of the Social Democrats made your point in the SBP today: “There are more than 140,000 households on waiting lists for social housing and living in insecure HAP tenancies. More than 8,000 people, including 2,000-plus children, are homeless and living in emergency accommodation.”

Link here (free to read): https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/cian-ocallaghan-states-over-reliance-on-leasing-to-address-social-housing-crisis-is-dangerous-455255ec

I suspect its still quite spurious though. My partner and I both separately joined housing lists years ago and we're still on them, even though we have no need to be anymore. We wouldn't even be eligible if we tried to sign up today, but once you go on a housing list you tend to stay on there.

I agree with the main point of the article that this replacing of purchasing with leasing seems like a very poorly thought-out idea that appears to be costing the state a lot more than it's worth. I'd love to know what the justification is for these changes to allow for this over purchasing property to keep in perpetuity.

Mic 1972

Shelga wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/end-of-terrace-house-9-ossory-road-north-strand/3199810

Just had a call back from the EA about this one, currently at €60k over asking, it was listed 3 days ago.

How much longer can this go on for?

it doesn't mean that there are DCC or multinational investment companies involved in the bidding.

I'm currently bidding on a property that is 30K over asking price already, we did the virtual viewing only 4 days ago and all participants were private buyers.

Buy-to-let attracts a lot of people with cash

hometruths

C14N wrote: »

I think vacancy as a cause of shortage tends to be overblown as a problem in almost all jurisdictions that have housing shortages. An EY report from earlier this year put it at only 1.6%, which is quite low: https://www.ey.com/en_ie/news/2021/01/residential-property-transactions-fall-by-over-20-percent-2020#:~:text=Vacancy%20Rates&text=At%201.6%25%2C%20Dublin%20had%20the,vacancy%20rates%20outside%20of%20Dublin.

There doubtless are some, and they're more likely to be concentrated at the higher end of the market where insitutional investors can afford vacancies for a few months, and where they will be most reluctant to drop rates due to RPZ restrictions, but I'd need to see more evidence of hard figures to believe it's really a widespread issue that's contributing much to shortages.

Are you aware that the 1.6% figure does not include units that are vacant because LLs are reluctant to drop rates?

The evidence is there for all to see in the hard figures, but sadly not in the sort of reports based on press releases such as the one you linked.

Amadan Dubh

https://www-irishtimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/henry-street-vacancies-to-hit-31-as-traders-seek-urgent-action-over-decline-1.4552581?mode=amp

Mr Guiney estimates the vacancy rate on Henry Street, traditionally one of the prime retail areas in the country, will be 31 per cent when shops reopen. The street, which runs west from O’Connell Street, was home to several UK retailers that have closed in recent times, such as Debenhams and Oasis. Swedish multinational H&M also recently announced the closure of its nearby outlet.

Retail is in a horrific state of affairs. Before covid even, property funds with holdings of Irish retail property imposed the redemption gate. During covid, many months ago at this stage, Grafton St properties in one of the Irish pension fund portfolios had their values written down 20-25%. That was 6 months ago by my recollection, so halfway through covid restrictions. Who knows what they are written down to now, 30%? 40% even?

Now it seems that 1 in 3 shops on Henry St, Dublin may stay closed even after restrictions ease. With all restrictions easing by July, it is worrying what sort of economic fallout we will see from covid (as we have not really seen much, if any, economic fallout as of yet due to government supports).

yagan

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

https://www-irishtimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/henry-street-vacancies-to-hit-31-as-traders-seek-urgent-action-over-decline-1.4552581?mode=amp



Retail is in a horrific state of affairs. Before covid even, property funds with holdings of Irish retail property imposed the redemption gate. During covid, many months ago at this stage, Grafton St properties in one of the Irish pension fund portfolios had their values written down 20-25%. That was 6 months ago by my recollection, so halfway through covid restrictions. Who knows what they are written down to now, 30%? 40% even?

Now it seems that 1 in 3 shops on Henry St, Dublin may stay closed even after restrictions ease. With all restrictions easing by July, it is worrying what sort of economic fallout we will see from covid (as we have not really seen much, if any, economic fallout as of yet due to government supports).

There's whole consumer behavioral changes yet to be measured, like how many people switched to online for the first time during the shutdowns and will they adopt that option full time now to the detriment of the city centre.

As someone said the internet is the new high street.

Amadan Dubh

yagan wrote: »

There's whole consumer behavioral changes yet to be measured, like how many people switched to online for the first time during the shutdowns and will they adopt that option full time now to the detriment of the city centre.

As someone said the internet is the new high street.

This is exactly it. I've seen KBC and BoI consumer sentiment stories published in recent weeks, that it is rising from previous months, but I presume the sentiment is more likely to be reflected in more online shopping, not trips to M&S Henry St!

DataDude

I know consensus on here is that Foxrock is a terribly overrated place, but this is one of my favourite houses. Was up at €3.5m last summer - I think went Sale Agreed and then fell through, but not 100% sure.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/hermitage-westminster-road-foxrock-dublin-18/4498801

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

I know consensus on here is that Foxrock is a terribly overrated place, but this is one of my favourite houses. Was up at €3.5m last summer - I think went Sale Agreed and then fell through, but not 100% sure.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/hermitage-westminster-road-foxrock-dublin-18/4498801

That’s is a pretty cool gaff. Can’t fault it really. Love the flooring.
I’d struggle to keep the wine cellar stocked though.

yagan

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

This is exactly it. I've seen KBC and BoI consumer sentiment stories published in recent weeks, that it is rising from previous months, but I presume the sentiment is more likely to be reflected in more online shopping, not trips to M&S Henry St!

There was a time pre internet that a trip to Dublin meant accessing stock that you simply couldn't find anywhere else. Aside from meeting up with someone or a concert I can't think of one retail reason for me going near the city centre now.

Then there's a whole load of other issues like older tourists from the USA who traditionally spent a lot in Ireland now having extra travel insurance costs that may reign in their long haul adventures.

Plus with fewer tourists the skanger element will be more obvious and at as another deterrent.

Hubertj

yagan wrote: »

There was a time pre internet that a trip to Dublin meant accessing stock that you simply couldn't find anywhere else. Aside from meeting up with someone or a concert I can't think of one retail reason for me going near the city centre now.

Then there's a whole load of other issues like older tourists from the USA who traditionally spent a lot in Ireland now having extra travel insurance costs that may reign in their long haul adventures.

Plus with fewer tourists the skanger element will be more obvious and at as another deterrent.

I fondly remember entertaining my redneck relations when they would venture to Dublin for shopping every December 8th...

Villa05

schmittel wrote:

Only in Ireland with mortgage arrears over 10 years rising, could the timing of a debate on repossession be described as suspicious!!!!

The suspicion was that banks were not actively repossessing as it would kill the market and there balance sheet after the last crash.

That feeling may have changed with pent up demand and restricted supply

A game of pass the parcel before it blows up again

Amadan Dubh wrote:

This is exactly it. I've seen KBC and BoI consumer sentiment stories published in recent weeks, that it is rising from previous months, but I presume the sentiment is more likely to be reflected in more online shopping, not trips to M&S Henry St!

The irony of a positive consumer sentiment survey while they scarper

hometruths

Villa05 wrote: »

The suspicion was that banks were not actively repossessing as it would kill the market and there balance sheet after the last crash.

That feeling may have changed with pent up demand and restricted supply

A game of pass the parcel before it blows up again

I'm not convinced it was the banks, I think their hands were tied. After all most of them booked the losses on the balance sheet when the NPLs were offloaded to the vulture funds.

I think the problem was political.

hometruths

Does anybody know if there are regulatory or legislative constraints forbidding non recourse loans in Ireland? Retrospectively converting all mortgages to non recourse and allowing banks to enforce repos would have been a better outcome for both the banks and the borrowers.

Pelezico

As a nation we bought a lot of political consensus by refusing to repossess and forcing banks to pay up for tracker mortgages. Pup payments have been popular and have bought more consensus.

Banks now acting as a duopoly and the highest mortgage rates in Eu

Unfortunately a whole generation of young people have been ignored.

Reins

DataDude wrote: »

I know consensus on here is that Foxrock is a terribly overrated place, but this is one of my favourite houses. Was up at €3.5m last summer - I think went Sale Agreed and then fell through, but not 100% sure.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/hermitage-westminster-road-foxrock-dublin-18/4498801

That is stunning! Love it.

Amadan Dubh

Reins wrote: »

That is stunning! Love it.

I also love it but, and maybe it's just me, the garden seems small for €4m.

Reins

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

I also love it but, and maybe it's just me, the garden seems small for €4m.

It wouldn't deter me - only the price would

Amadan Dubh

https://www.ft.com/content/03620e72-b618-49eb-9d34-0f2a9ffef5f2

Very interesting article in the FT this morning on the commercial rental arrears problem simmering as they approach full reopening on 21 June and the eviction ban (which extends to commercial tenants, as in Ireland at least for most of the restrictions period) ends.

(extract)

The UK government is under pressure to resolve a £6bn rent arrears crisis and prevent a deluge of legal disputes between commercial tenants and landlords, ahead of the end of a temporary ban on evictions next month.

“If the government doesn’t do anything you will have blood on the carpet. All you need is one landlord to trigger the payment requirement in full and the whole company could fall,” said Kate Nicholls, head of UKHospitality, the trade body.

The ban has prevented evictions since it was introduced last March 2020 but ends on June 30. 

In a letter sent to housing secretary Robert Jenrick on Friday that has been seen by the Financial Times, UKHospitality argued that “there is a moral obligation on landlords . . . to make rent concessions to businesses forced to close”.

It suggests the government should extend the eviction moratorium until December to allow businesses to recover after lockdown ends, and develop an adjudication process on sharing losses between tenants and landlords with at least 50 per cent of rent debt written off.

We have the exact same problem here in Ireland; will the government step in to protect businesses? If so, how politically popular would it be for the State to pay commercial landlords? The alternative is to let businesses go to the wall which hurts the business, the landlords (empty properties) and the State who has to suffer the lost tax revenue and must sustain the employees permanently let go.

Marius34

C14N wrote: »

I think vacancy as a cause of shortage tends to be overblown as a problem in almost all jurisdictions that have housing shortages. An EY report from earlier this year put it at only 1.6%, which is quite low: https://www.ey.com/en_ie/news/2021/01/residential-property-transactions-fall-by-over-20-percent-2020#:~:text=Vacancy%20Rates&text=At%201.6%25%2C%20Dublin%20had%20the,vacancy%20rates%20outside%20of%20Dublin.

There doubtless are some, and they're more likely to be concentrated at the higher end of the market where insitutional investors can afford vacancies for a few months, and where they will be most reluctant to drop rates due to RPZ restrictions, but I'd need to see more evidence of hard figures to believe it's really a widespread issue that's contributing much to shortages.

We won't see those evidence, because it does not exist. If it would exist some opposing parties already would have some reports, in those times when housing is a big topic. Nowadays we only keep hearing about the same few hundreds vacant luxury apartments in city center.
Some trying to build the vacancy problem, from people leaving their homes for vacation, hospital, renovation or waiting for water/heating connection on the new builds..

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Are you aware that the 1.6% figure does not include units that are vacant because LLs are reluctant to drop rates?

The evidence is there for all to see in the hard figures, but sadly not in the sort of reports based on press releases such as the one you linked.

Just because you keep repeating it, doesn't mean that it's true.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Just because you keep repeating it, doesn't mean that it's true.

You keep telling me this is not true, and in turn I keep repeating the source that says it is true, GeoDirectory themselves.

From the Geodirectory 2017 report when they changed from quoting census figures and explained why:

Some of these categories could be considered to be dwellings which might not normally be classified as vacant in the context of long term vacancy, but which would represent more of a transitional or temporary vacancy rate, i.e.properties waiting to be sold or rented out. In the aggregate they represent a total of around 31,500 properties out of the 57,000, or 55%. This implies that 25,500 of this total would be deemed to be vacant. As these explanations were only provided for one-third of vacant dwellings (if it is assumed that 55% of the remaining two-thirds were similarly classified, leaving 45% as representing the true vacant total), this would reduce the CSO figure for the number of vacant dwellings considerably to around 83,000, which would be closer to the GeoDirectory figure of 96,243

If we follow the usual pattern your response to this will be along the lines of:

Marius34 wrote: »

I don't want to discuss your interpretation

Any chance you could tell me why my "interpretation" that "properties waiting to be sold or rented out" are not counted as vacancies by GeoDirectory is wrong? I am genuinely keen to know how it can be understood another way.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

You keep telling me this is not true, and in turn I keep repeating the source that says it is true, GeoDirectory themselves.

From the Geodirectory 2017 report when they changed from quoting census figures and explained why:



If we follow the usual pattern your response to this will be along the lines of:



Any chance you could tell me why my "interpretation" that "properties waiting to be sold or rented out" are not counted as vacancies by GeoDirectory is wrong? I am genuinely keen to know how it can be understood another way.

The answer is in the same sentence, there is difference between long term and transition/temporary vacancy:

"Some of these categories could be considered to be dwellings which might not normally be classified as vacant in the context of long term vacancy, but which would represent more of a transitional or temporary vacancy rate, i.e.properties waiting to be sold or rented out"

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

The answer is in the same sentence, there is difference between long term and transition/temporary vacancy:

"Some of these categories could be considered to be dwellings which might not normally be classified as vacant in the context of long term vacancy, but which would represent more of a transitional or temporary vacancy rate, i.e.properties waiting to be sold or rented out"

So we agree that GeoDirectory only measures what they consider a long term vacancy, and ignores what they consider a "transitional or temporary" vacancy?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

So we agree that GeoDirectory only measures what they consider a long term vacancy, and ignores what they consider a "transitional or temporary" vacancy?

Sounds about right.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Sounds about right.

Great. And in what category do you think GeoDirectory include properties waiting to be rented out: long term vacancy or temporary vacancy?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Great. And in what category do think GeoDirectory include properties waiting to be rented out: long term vacancy or temporary vacancy?

Long term: for Geodirectory starts from around 6 to 12 months. Don't ask me why is this, as I don't have proof to explain this, and I don't want to discuss "what I think". If there is no report about it, better leave it, and don't try to assume something as a "Fact".

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Long term: for Geodirectory starts from around 6 to 12 months. Don't ask me why is this, as I don't have proof to explain this, and I don't want to discuss "what I think". If there is no report about it, better leave it, and don't try to assume something as a "Fact".

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

It is not Long term - they consider properties waiting to be rented out as temporary vacancies.

It's not a question of what you or I think. We have it as a fact because GeoDirectory tell us that exactly when explaining how their methodology differs from the census and how to explain the variation:

Drilling down further, however, it is possible to explain some of this substantial difference. The CSO has provided some data on the reasons why dwellings were vacant at the time of the Census of Population for a small sample of vacant buildings (i.e. around 57,000 dwellings or close to one-third of the
total). This one-third of the vacant stock includes dwellings classified as for
sale (10,948 dwellings), for rent (10,350), owner in nursing home (4,165), renovation work underway (3,678), owner in hospital (1,469), and owner with relatives (847).

Some of these categories could be considered to be dwellings which might
not normally be classified as vacant in the context of long term vacancy, but
which would represent more of a transitional or temporary vacancy rate, i.e.
properties waiting to be sold or rented out

GeoDirectory are literally telling us they do not count vacant rentals in their vacancy figures, yet every time I point this out you tell me I'm wrong. When i ask you to explain why you say:

Don't ask me why is this, as I don't have proof to explain this, and I don't want to discuss "what I think".

If you don't have any argument to explain why you 'think' I am wrong, and don't even want to discuss what you 'think', why do you keep telling me what you 'think'?

Seems like a colossal waste of time.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

It is not Long term - they consider properties waiting to be rented out as temporary vacancies.

Nonsense. I don't need your interpretation, nowhere they say it. They don't even have such categories as waiting to be rented.
It's even impossible for postman to know which properties is waiting to be rented out, which not.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Nonsense. I don't need your interpretation, nowhere they say it. They don't even have such categories as waiting to be rented.
It's even impossible for postman to know which properties is waiting to be rented out, which not.

They say it here:

not normally be classified as vacant in the context of long term vacancy, but which would represent more of a transitional or temporary vacancy rate, i.e.
properties waiting to be sold or rented out

They give two examples of types of temporary vacancies, one of which is properties waiting to be rented out!!!

Ursabear

schmittel wrote: »

Did you buy in the development?

No when we were looking in January/ February I had sent an email of interest, but we bought elsewhere. I think it's shocking that investment properties can buy so much if the housing stock when so many people are trying to get on the ladder and are stuck in a cycle of paying high rents .