2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Balluba

cnocbui wrote: »

I suppose there is an immense premium for sea fronatage. I'm selling a lot more in Connemamara for roughly a third less.

After seeing gardens fall on to the beach at beautiful Portrane because of erosion I would not pay 650,000 for sea frontage. Far safer to buy on a height well back from the sea but still having the beautiful view IMO

Ozark707

Wanderer78 wrote: »

the state needs to urgently step in here, in order to protect us all from these actions, the state needs to start being the main funder in our property markets, allowing the fire sectors(finance, insurance, and real estate) to dictate our markets, is leading devastating outcomes for all

I just can't see it happening. The gov are scared to death of the homeless figures and have decided to pay through the nose to remedy the situation. Covid has managed to take this off the main agenda and that a lot of STL's were hoovered up to provide some respite has helped them in this regard.

Wanderer78

Ozark707 wrote: »

I just can't see it happening. The gov are scared to death of the homeless figures and have decided to pay through the nose to remedy the situation. Covid has managed to take this off the main agenda and that a lot of STL's were hoovered up to provide some respite has helped them in this regard.

this is more ideological based than anything, we have been fed, for decades now, that public debt is bad, and its better to have the majority of our debts in the private domain, this is clearly untrue, but we still havent largely accepted this, we re set to default to the norm, post covid, in relation to debt.

yagan

Ozark707 wrote: »

I just can't see it happening. The gov are scared to death of the homeless figures and have decided to pay through the nose to remedy the situation. Covid has managed to take this off the main agenda and that a lot of STL's were hoovered up to provide some respite has helped them in this regard.

This is exactly what's happening now, it's kind of like a front loaded developer bailout and will most likely lead to tribunals in the future when it's established that the government bought at developer recommended prices.

The pension funds stopped snapping when Covid made WFH a reality which would have a huge influence on expected yield returns. The developers like the one that sought retrospective planning permission for 500 units in the docks to be switched from student accommodation to private rental must think it's bailout part deux!

Ozark707

yagan wrote: »

This is exactly what's happening now, it's kind of like a front loaded developer bailout and will most likely lead to tribunals in the future when it's established that the government bought at developer recommended prices.

The pension funds stopped snapping when Covid made WFH a reality which would have a huge influence on expected yield returns. The developers like the one that sought retrospective planning permission for 500 units in the docks to be switched from student accommodation to private rental must think it's bailout part deux!

It certainly is bailout part deux but not just for the developers. The amount of developments coming under this umbrella seems to be increasing by the week. Are there enough people on the housing lists to fill all these places? I thought the homeless figures maxed out at something like 10k. Many on this list are probably not suitable for the apartments in these units are the family size will probably exceed what the average 2 bed can accommodate.

Wanderer78

Ozark707 wrote: »

It certainly is bailout part deux but not just for the developers. The amount of developments coming under this umbrella seems to be increasing by the week. Are there enough people on the housing lists to fill all these places? I thought the homeless figures maxed out at something like 10k. Many on this list are probably not suitable for the apartments in these units are the family size will probably exceed what the average 2 bed can accommodate.

id like to think theyre reacting to our current and future needs, the potential is increasing for a rise in defaults and repossessions in the near future

Zenify

Does anyone know the distance a bank will allow you to live away from your work? I've heard stories about a bank refusing a mortgage as it was too far from their work.

yagan

Wanderer78 wrote: »

id like to think theyre reacting to our current and future needs, the potential is increasing for a rise in defaults and repossessions in the near future

I think you're right, another bank bailout would be political suicide.

It's starting to permeate into mortgage payers minds that they'd be paying a lower interest rate if foreclosures were easier to process. So the choice will be between lower bank rates or keeping Mary and Joe non payer in situ.

I think the former will be the easier sell.

Wanderer78

yagan wrote: »

I think you're right, another bank bailout would be political suicide.

It's starting to permeate into mortgage payers minds that they'd be paying a lower interest rate if foreclosures were easier to process. So the choice will be between lower bank rates or keeping Mary and Joe non payer in situ.

I think the former will be the easier sell.

theres no guarantee that rising repossessions will result in lower rates, in fact, our current banking situation may lead to rising rates, effectively due to monopolisation of our banking market, messy messy stuff

Ozark707

Wanderer78 wrote: »

id like to think theyre reacting to our current and future needs, the potential is increasing for a rise in defaults and repossessions in the near future

But it seems that they are going to increase the costs of renting of people who are not eligible to state supports by pursuing this policy, or am I misreading the effect of this policy?

JDigweed

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Yes exactly, it assumes there is a conveyor belt of people to pay €2k+ per month on rent or the State to step in where the conveyor belt slows or stops. Exactly like the 00s when the only way was up, just look at the exuberance of the stock market!

Can anyone fill me in on exactly who is paying over 2k for suburban rent. I have a relatively good salary and would be crippled paying that much. I see a new small development in Celbridge on daft, built to let, looking for similar monthly rent. It seems an outrageous amount of money to be paying long term

Wanderer78

Ozark707 wrote: »

But it seems that they are going to increase the costs of renting of people who are not eligible to state supports by pursuing this policy, or am I misreading the effect of this policy?

no, i think you re reading it right, i also think theres a possibility our current approaches will in fact lead to an increase in property prices, including rents

Wanderer78

JDigweed wrote: »

Can anyone fill me in on exactly who is paying over 2k for suburban rent. I have a relatively good salary and would be crippled paying that much. I see a new small development in Celbridge on daft, built to let, looking for similar monthly rent. It seems an outrageous amount of money to be paying long term

it is ridiculous, and its completely unsustainable, you can be damn sure wages arent rising as fast as those rates

Ozark707

JDigweed wrote: »

Can anyone fill me in on exactly who is paying over 2k for suburban rent. I have a relatively good salary and would be crippled paying that much. I see a new small development in Celbridge on daft, built to let, looking for similar monthly rent. It seems an outrageous amount of money to be paying long term

There are countless developments like you cite. If the private market won't sustain it (and as you say it appears 2k is a lot for a suburban area) then the only option is a state supported payment. I didn't realise this extended to places like Celbridge.

Claw Hammer

Zenify wrote: »

Does anyone know the distance a bank will allow you to live away from your work? I've heard stories about a bank refusing a mortgage as it was too far from their work.

Was it the distance or the cost of commuting which influenced the bank?

Zenify

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Was it the distance or the cost of commuting which influenced the bank?

I'm not sure of the reason. it could be either of above or that the bank thinks it's not possible to continue in current employment due to distance eg house in Kerry, working in Dublin. My specific situation is if a bank will give a mortgage to someone working in Dublin yet wanting to buy in Arklow or Gorey?

Hubertj

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/bankhead-tullyally-redcastle-county-donegal-f93dpf1/4498014

This is lovely, just a shame it’s in Donegal.

Zenify

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/bankhead-tullyally-redcastle-county-donegal-f93dpf1/4498014

This is lovely, just a shame it’s in Donegal.

Amazing

Browney7

JDigweed wrote: »

Can anyone fill me in on exactly who is paying over 2k for suburban rent. I have a relatively good salary and would be crippled paying that much. I see a new small development in Celbridge on daft, built to let, looking for similar monthly rent. It seems an outrageous amount of money to be paying long term

If net income of a household (so after tax) is less than approx 40k (from recollection), then the household is eligible for HAP. If tenants top up the HAP it's probably affordable and if the state is the official renter of last resort its "name your price" from the REIT's perspective.

Considering the public servants we've in charge of our councils and housing bodies I'm not surprised by any of the dubious decisions and waste we are seeing at present.

Brendan Kenny came out with a few absolute doozies in the article written in the Currency last week.

I particularly enjoyed this one: "We prefer dealing with the big funds, even though they might be greedier or more expensive. They just want to collect the money".

It also seems like capital and developers have the ear of our public servants also as per the lobbying register - https://www.lobbying.ie/return/67025/bartra-capital-property-management-limited-trading-as-bartra-capital-property. Smells a tad bit like the fox advising the farmer on how to secure his animals....

Ozark707

Browney7 wrote: »

Brendan Kenny came out with a few absolute doozies in the article written in the Currency last week.

I particularly enjoyed this one: "We prefer dealing with the big funds, even though they might be greedier or more expensive. They just want to collect the money".

Smells a tad bit like the fox advising the farmer on how to secure his animals....

I'm sure the feeling is mutual...is there any other country in the world where they could land such riches?

yagan

Ozark707 wrote: »

I'm sure the feeling is mutual...is there any other country in the world where they could land such riches?

Sicily allegedly had a minister for cement.

Critics could find themselves solidified.

Villa05

JDigweed wrote:

Can anyone fill me in on exactly who is paying over 2k for suburban rent. I have a relatively good salary and would be crippled paying that much. I see a new small development in Celbridge on daft, built to let, looking for similar monthly rent. It seems an outrageous amount of money to be paying long term

I suspect close to 40% of workers do not earn enough to get an income of 2k a month nett

It does seem to be an obscene price for one of life's necessities.

It is even more obscene that this is the price paid for social and affordable property. What will this do as a dis/incentive for people to work, remain in work

Wanderer78 wrote:

it is ridiculous, and its completely unsustainable, you can be damn sure wages arent rising as fast as those rates

If our ability to compete on corporation tax internationally is being chipped away at, we need to be Uber competitive in all other areas
Affordable property is key to being competitive in all other areas. These include wages, personal taxation, education, reducing public and private debt

Jmc25

JDigweed wrote: »

Can anyone fill me in on exactly who is paying over 2k for suburban rent. I have a relatively good salary and would be crippled paying that much. I see a new small development in Celbridge on daft, built to let, looking for similar monthly rent. It seems an outrageous amount of money to be paying long term

I would also suspect that in most cases it would be a couple who could afford this rent and realistically if a couple are on a combined salary which allows them to pay 2k rent each month then they would presumably be in a good position to get a mortgage and buy within a couple of years, and in Ireland that is virtually always the end goal for people.

DataDude

The first sensible supply side policy being shot down for bizarre reasons. You really would have to wonder if the government wants to tackle the issue of high rents at all!

Up to 10k vacant homes that could have been released reasonably quickly now being put on ice.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/fair-deal-scheme-row-fears-of-elder-abuse-over-plan-to-exempt-rental-income-from-family-homes-40380345.html

mcsean2163

I think it's worth mentioning that protections for law abiding tenants and landlords are appalling and those are the majority. It's the minority that is destroying the marketplace.

The feeling was that big funds would treat tenants better. It wasn't understood that FFG would agree outrageous rents with the REITs and thus inflate the entire market for both buyers and renters not in receipt of welfare.

The public sector is incapable of any form of subtlety. Walking AND talking would be too much of an ask for them.

The funds can do 100 things at once, taking advantage of any opportunity.

The government is no match for them and bankrupting the nation trying to end homelessness before the next election.

That's what happened.

Well managed REITs offering affordable rentals under very strict allocation rules are what is needed. Instead we have REITs gobbling up two bed houses in ballyfermot to rent back to the government in order to squeeze the last fraction of a percentage of yield to improve their bonuses and inflating the entire market.

The government is incompetent on an incredible scale and sadly that's it. The housing budget has gone €160 million over budget. It's anyone's guess when the music stops The government are only thinking about votes and optics again. They're not thinking about Ireland having the third highest debt per capita in the world and the probability of the EU tapering loans.

Wanderer78

Villa05 wrote: »

If our ability to compete on corporation tax internationally is being chipped away at, we need to be Uber competitive in all other areas
Affordable property is key to being competitive in all other areas. These include wages, personal taxation, education, reducing public and private debt

we ve done this, this is exactly what we ve been doing, particularly over the last few decades, its clearly failing, the fact that private debt almost entirely has been leading to rising property costs needs to be addressed, wage inflation has remained low in comparison.

and again, its extremely important to remember, debt is our money supply, reducing debt, reduces this, thus reduces our capacity to expand our economy. i.e. in order to expand and grow your economy, you must have a growing money supply to do so, we ve become over reliant on the private sector money supply to do this, i.e. credit, which in turn in just leading to rising asset prices, in particular property prices, we re caught in a cycle, a positive feedback cycle, the only way to break this is by expanding the public money supply, i.e. the deficit.

mcsean2163

DataDude wrote: »

The first sensible supply side policy being shot down for bizarre reasons. You really would have to wonder if the government wants to tackle the issue of high rents at all!

Up to 10k vacant homes that could have been released reasonably quickly now being put on ice.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/fair-deal-scheme-row-fears-of-elder-abuse-over-plan-to-exempt-rental-income-from-family-homes-40380345.html

In order to understand the public sector, think of a business and then take away reason and accountability.

mcsean2163

Wanderer78 wrote: »

we ve done this, this is exactly what we ve been doing, particularly over the last few decades, its clearly failing, the fact that private debt almost entirely has been leading to rising property costs needs to be addressed, wage inflation has remained low in comparison.

and again, its extremely important to remember, debt is our money supply, reducing debt, reduces this, thus reduces our capacity to expand our economy. i.e. in order to expand and grow your economy, you must have a growing money supply to do so, we ve become over reliant on the private sector money supply to do this, i.e. credit, which in turn in just leading to rising asset prices, in particular property prices, we re caught in a cycle, a positive feedback cycle, the only way to break this is by expanding the public money supply, i.e. the deficit.

Do you understand that we are the third most indebted nation in the world? If we weren't in the EU, nobody would lend to us. We don't have our own money supply. The country of 5 million is close to a quarter of a trillion in debt.

You're advocating the government borrow and spend more?? Am I understanding you correctly?

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

The first sensible supply side policy being shot down for bizarre reasons. You really would have to wonder if the government wants to tackle the issue of high rents at all!

Up to 10k vacant homes that could have been released reasonably quickly now being put on ice.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/fair-deal-scheme-row-fears-of-elder-abuse-over-plan-to-exempt-rental-income-from-family-homes-40380345.html

I saw this earlier but couldn’t read it as behind paywall. I’d like to understand the arguments against this as struggle to think of 1.

DataDude

Hubertj wrote: »

I saw this earlier but couldn’t read it as behind paywall. I’d like to understand the arguments against this as struggle to think of 1.

The general argument is that, if people can rent out houses, families will be packing their parents off into nursing homes prematurely to get their hands on the €2k a month…