2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

standardg60

yer man! wrote: »

The next election will be a burn the house down moment, I never considered Sinn Fein before, I cannot believe I am now contemplating them.

Letting the lunatics take over the asylum might be the only option at this stage.
They are running the show anyway. The by-election will be an eye opener, SF will be all out housing, i wonder if there'll be an independent smart enough to dare call a halt to the madness.

hometruths

standardg60 wrote: »

You're giving the Government too much credit here. There is never 'a plan' other than following any policy which assists re-election.

The plan started with Noonan et al way back in 2011 and yes it was all about protecting their voter base to assist re-election.

The number 1 goal was to bail out the "negative equity generation" by getting the market moving again so rising prices lifted these buyers out of negative equity, leading to a generation of loyal FG voters.

Hence they fanned the embers of the market and poured rocket fuel on the flames.

What they should have done is recognise the problem for what it was - some people bought property at the top of a market cycle, and if that has resulted negative equity, so be it, that is the way of market cycles.

The problem they have now is saving one generation has royally f8cked the next generation and government are in bind. All they can do is try more of the same to pull more younger voters into the fold and hope once they're in the home owning classes, they are also happy to cheerlead ever higher prices.

Hence the stubborn insistence on the crazy shared equity scheme.

standardg60 wrote: »

We elect idiots here, and then complain about their incompetency, but they are simply a reflection of ourselves. The culture of being Irish is everyone for themselves, the i'm alright Jack approach, it's inevitable that outsiders will see this and seek to exploit it.

Therein lies the problem. People who already own their home are quite happy with government policies that increase the value of that home. I'm alright Jack.

The ultimate insiders, our politicians, see this and seek to exploit it far more than any outsiders.

lawrencesummers

yer man! wrote: »

The next election will be a burn the house down moment, I never considered Sinn Fein before, I cannot believe I am now contemplating them.

Vote them in.

Give them a few years to change some things, give the others a kick in the hole and break their grip on power and then vote them right out the next time round.

yagan

schmittel wrote: »

Therein lies the problem. People who already own their home are quite happy with government policies that increase the value of that home. I'm alright Jack.

The ultimate insiders, our politicians, see this and seek to exploit it far more than any outsiders.

The top two issues at the last election was housing and healthcare, so even if you're comfortably housed it's still galling to see your tax money that could be used on healthcare being diverted abroad tax free via these rent farming funds.

This time Fianna Fail is bailing out people who don't even have a vote in Ireland.

standardg60

So what we've been discussing for weeks on here finally making headline news on RTE.
Daragh o'Brien looking like a ghost, stressed to the height, the left finally realising that their housing policies are directly leading to price increases (though of course nothing to do with them, even though Government following their own promised solution).

Are we finally reaching endgame of State interference in the housing market?

Ps. Rip Alan McLoughlin.

mcsean2163

yagan wrote: »

There's two ways to look at this. The last bust didn't actually affect our multinational sector that actually makes stuff for export, biomed, pharma etc..

And if/when the current mega-whopper market bubble pops people will still need to buy intensive care ventilators and Ireland exports half of the worlds supply of those.

The problem is our over reliance property speculation for employment. During the bertie bubble 15% of the work force was employed directly in construction, with another 7-8% servicing construction.

The multinationals didn't shed jobs during the bust, and are unlikely too in a downturn now. However I don't have an idea of the current numbers employed in this bust, although there seems to be a lot more foreign agency staff working here but getting paid elsewhere (bulgarian site staff being paid in Poland etc..). The unemployment hangover probably won't be as bad as the last bust.

I went through two redundancies and being let go in two years 2001- 2003. That's when we lost general manufacturing to eastern Europe/ China. They all left when the tax breaks finished.

We've been able to attract pharma and social media with our tax stealing loophole system that's about to be closed. I hope the companies stay and don't leave like Dell in Limerick during the last recession and Borg Warner in tralee recently but there's no guarantees.

We have no room to maneuver as we are the most indebted nation in the world that doesn't control its own currency. Clowns like McWilliams are bullet proof in their mansions with their money made, the rest of us may not fare so well if things go wrong.

It's called prudence. It seems to be in very short supply.

Hubertj

yagan wrote: »

The top two issues at the last election was housing and healthcare, so even if you're comfortably housed it's still galling to see your tax money that could be used on healthcare being diverted abroad tax free via these rent farming funds.

This time Fianna Fail is bailing out people who don't even have a vote in Ireland.

I think it’s a coin toss as to where money would be more wasted - exported to funds or tossed into the black hole that is the HSE.

It’s been a perfect sh*tshow for government - publicity around funds buying up 2 housing estates while the housing bill is being approved by cabinet. O’Brien s radio and TV interviews then need to address both, highlighting it even more

yagan

standardg60 wrote: »

So what we've been discussing for weeks on here finally making headline news on RTE.
Daragh o'Brien looking like a ghost, stressed to the height, the left finally realising that their housing policies are directly leading to price increases (though of course nothing to do with them, even though Government following their own promised solution).

Are we finally reaching endgame of State interference in the housing market?

Ps. Rip Alan McLoughlin.

If by the left do you mean those who advocated for building more social housing?

Bidding against first time buyers to reduce the housing list isn't building social housing, it's actually destroying existing supply for short termist politicing.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

It’s been a perfect sh*tshow for government - publicity around funds buying up 2 housing estates while the housing bill is being approved by cabinet. O’Brien s radio and TV interviews then need to address both, highlighting it even more

It's actually even worse than it looks - the underbidder in Maynooth was Kildare County Council!

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

It's actually even worse than it looks - the underbidder in Maynooth was Kildare County Council!

Speechless

fliball123

Its funny how people are only waking up to this or coping on to what was going on. I contended as early as the turn of last year prices wouldn't drop in any significant way due to the abundance of demand. People were laughing saying Fliball you are a gobhs1t we are going through brexit and corona. I pointed out that the bog standard FTB was contesting with REITS and Vultures and the state and that we were no longer just a domestic market and we were competing globally for our domestic market with the increase of web activity anyone could purchase in Ireland and did not have to live here. To which I got the why would someone buy in Ireland when I pointed out the 20/25 year Government rental scheme at 85% the market value guaranteed and asked was there a more profitable secure ROI in the world. How much has rents gone up? I was laughed at.

This is what happens when the lefties have the microphone. We see the state scrambling to buy houses to house the poor as well as securing long term deals for rentals.. We no longer have the wherewithal to build and our procurement department is also an absolute sh1tshow. We seem to want to pay if its the highest penny and only if its the highest penny (children's hospital anyone).. The very fact that we are giving pay rises to the public sector this year and next year while 17billion in deficit and 240 billion in debt would suggest that the government lads are all having a good scoff at the trough.

The problem here now is whats easily given is hard to take away and eaten bread soon forgotten. There is a day of reckoning coming within the next 3/4 years with regards to our finances. Hard to know what to do toying with the idea of getting out of dodge as no doubt the people to be hit hardest will be those working and earning above the AIW and with the extra payment in tax will return an even poorer service for your money.

standardg60

yagan wrote: »

If by the left do you mean those who advocated for building more social housing?

Bidding against first time buyers to reduce the housing list isn't building social housing, it's actually destroying existing supply for short termist politicing.

Yep, and listening to Eoin O'Broin there that policy isn't going to change.

We are in a big economic hole here, and the only alternative to the current keep digging powers that be is a keep digging deeper one.

enricoh

standardg60 wrote: »

Yep, and listening to Eoin O'Broin there that policy isn't going to change.

We are in a big economic hole here, and the only alternative to the current keep digging powers that be is a keep digging deeper one.

I reckon the government know what's coming and are squandering as much as they can before having a row and an election!

Sinn fein can deal with the aftermath!
I feel sorry for the buyers in these estates that have been hoovered up for social housing. They're probably in 50-100k negative equity overnight as a result.

jill_valentine

More or less complete continuity of centre right parties in government in my lifetime, but it's still somehow the left's fault the incumbents have no interest in cleaning up the post Tiger mess they made. The accommodation crisis is there, it is real, and it needs to be dealt with. Wanting that done is not a radical utopian ideal.​

The idea Ireland should be at least as capable of sheltering people as it was thirty years ago should not be partisan. The homelessness crisis is the responsibility of the parties in power, and measures and failures to deal with it are too. It is absurd to pretend otherwise, tails I win/heads you lose stuff. Elements of this government set this crisis in motion, aggravated it at every turn, and are still delivering a few final steaming turds to the table at the last minute.

It is nobody's fault but theirs that the ​half baked nonsense they cobbled together to give the illusion of doing something is a mess.

Amadan Dubh

fliball123 wrote: »

Its funny how people are only waking up to this or coping on to what was going on. I contended as early as the turn of last year prices wouldn't drop in any significant way due to the abundance of demand. People were laughing saying Fliball you are a gobhs1t we are going through brexit and corona. I pointed out that the bog standard FTB was contesting with REITS and Vultures and the state and that we were no longer just a domestic market and we were competing globally for our domestic market with the increase of web activity anyone could purchase in Ireland and did not have to live here. To which I got the why would someone buy in Ireland when I pointed out the 20/25 year Government rental scheme at 85% the market value guaranteed and asked was there a more profitable secure ROI in the world. How much has rents gone up? I was laughed at.

This is what happens when the lefties have the microphone. We see the state scrambling to buy houses to house the poor as well as securing long term deals for rentals.. We no longer have the wherewithal to build and our procurement department is also an absolute sh1tshow. We seem to want to pay if its the highest penny and only if its the highest penny (children's hospital anyone).. The very fact that we are giving pay rises to the public sector this year and next year while 17billion in deficit and 240 billion in debt would suggest that the government lads are all having a good scoff at the trough.

The problem here now is whats easily given is hard to take away and eaten bread soon forgotten. There is a day of reckoning coming within the next 3/4 years with regards to our finances. Hard to know what to do toying with the idea of getting out of dodge as no doubt the people to be hit hardest will be those working and earning above the AIW and with the extra payment in tax will return an even poorer service for your money.

There is an almighty storm brewing, even before covid. It seems like no effort has been made to become less reliant on corporate taxes and I think it is now the case where the top 10 companies pay half our corporate taxes. This is such a concentration risk it is scary. Now we have the State totally squandering money but, here is the massive problem, the income tax paying workers still feel like the "squeezed middle" and have been given absolutely nothing following the recovery from the Crash. As such, you have a huge cohort of people still waiting for their reward for seeing through austerity. It would be the death of FF and FG to try to raise income taxes in the next few years, which means public spending will have to be cut, not just to make up for the loss in corporate taxes but also because it is completely unsustainable. Over 1bn on rental assistance alone each year and climbing so long as the crisis persists, to give one tiny example of the ridiculous soending. I feel like FF and FG have lost control of the beast (ie the economy) and are hoping it just doesn't do too much damage as it tears through the town once it crashes out of the shed. It would probably be beneficial to call a GE and hope SF get into power so they can at least get blamed for the mess.

coolshannagh28

schmittel wrote: »

The plan started with Noonan et al way back in 2011 and yes it was all about protecting their voter base to assist re-election.

The number 1 goal was to bail out the "negative equity generation" by getting the market moving again so rising prices lifted these buyers out of negative equity, leading to a generation of loyal FG voters.

Hence they fanned the embers of the market and poured rocket fuel on the flames.

What they should have done is recognise the problem for what it was - some people bought property at the top of a market cycle, and if that has resulted negative equity, so be it, that is the way of market cycles.

The problem they have now is saving one generation has royally f8cked the next generation and government are in bind. All they can do is try more of the same to pull more younger voters into the fold and hope once they're in the home owning classes, they are also happy to cheerlead ever higher prices.

Hence the stubborn insistence on the crazy shared equity scheme.



Therein lies the problem. People who already own their home are quite happy with government policies that increase the value of that home. I'm alright Jack.

The ultimate insiders, our politicians, see this and seek to exploit it far more than any outsiders.

The Troika laid down the law that Ireland was to remove the small Landlord from the sector and establish a rental sector based on European ideals of long leases, security of tenure and rent controls ,instead Noonan went to the US and brought in Vulture funds and REITS who have monopolised the market which is tiny by their standards and inflated the bubble .
These entities were enticed here with tax breaks and the pick of the bottom of the market from NAMA and the banks distressed asset sales . It may now time to pull back on the tax breaks but in reality the strength of their position will be difficult to challenge and govt policy of a decade will take another decade or a bust to change.

mcsean2163

jill_valentine wrote: »

More or less complete continuity of centre right parties in government in my lifetime, but it's still somehow the left's fault the incumbents have no interest in cleaning up the post Tiger mess they made. The accommodation crisis is there, it is real, and it needs to be dealt with. Wanting that done is not a radical utopian ideal.​

The idea Ireland should be at least as capable of sheltering people as it was thirty years ago should not be partisan. The homelessness crisis is the responsibility of the parties in power, and measures and failures to deal with it are too. It is absurd to pretend otherwise, tails I win/heads you lose stuff. Elements of this government set this crisis in motion, aggravated it at every turn, and are still delivering a few final steaming turds to the table at the last minute.

It is nobody's fault but theirs that the ​half baked nonsense they cobbled together to give the illusion of doing something is a mess.

Have to agree to a large degree, population increased by 420,000 from 2011 to 2020. Supply and demand exacerbated by government incompetence and private sector opportunism. It's hard to see what the government contributes to the housing sector apart from borrowed money and tax loopholes.

Cilldara_2000

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

There is an almighty storm brewing, even before covid. It seems like no effort has been made to become less reliant on corporate taxes and I think it is now the case where the top 10 companies pay half our corporate taxes. This is such a concentration risk it is scary. Now we have the State totally squandering money but, here is the massive problem, the income tax paying workers still feel like the "squeezed middle" and have been given absolutely nothing following the recovery from the Crash. As such, you have a huge cohort of people still waiting for their reward for seeing through austerity. It would be the death of FF and FG to try to raise income taxes in the next few years, which means public spending will have to be cut, not just to make up for the loss in corporate taxes but also because it is completely unsustainable. Over 1bn on rental assistance alone each year and climbing so long as the crisis persists, to give one tiny example of the ridiculous soending. I feel like FF and FG have lost control of the beast (ie the economy) and are hoping it just doesn't do too much damage as it tears through the town once it crashes out of the shed. It would probably be beneficial to call a GE and hope SF get into power so they can at least get blamed for the mess.

Those of us who are more concerned with good outcomes and what's best for the country would hope to get SF into power because the centre-right consensus backed up by Labour has been shown to be completely unworkable and unaffordable for the ordinary people. They literally couldn't be any worse than what has gone on so far. Hoping that they get blamed for a mess not of their making is pathetic.

Also, had to laugh at this quote in the article on rte.ie:

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0504/1213801-mullen-park-investors-first-time-buyers-property-housing-estate/

After being locked out of the housing estate, the Prime Time crew was later permitted into Mullen Park to interview Damien Dillon, an agent with Dillon Marshall Property Consultants, which is working with the developer.

"Institutional landlords are being painted as big vulture funds that are coming in, but they're trying to help the housing crisis," he said.

This guy takes us all to be fools. He's probably right considering how long we've allowed this to go on.

Reins

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

Those of us who are more concerned with good outcomes and what's best for the country would hope to get SF into power because the centre-right consensus backed up by Labour has been shown to be completely unworkable and unaffordable for the ordinary people. They literally couldn't be any worse than what has gone on so far. Hoping that they get blamed for a mess not of their making is pathetic.

Also, had to laugh at this quote in the article on rte.ie:

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0504/1213801-mullen-park-
investors-first-time-buyers-property-housing-estate/

After being locked out of the housing estate, the Prime Time crew was later permitted into Mullen Park to interview Damien Dillon, an agent with Dillon Marshall Property Consultants, which is working with the developer.

"Institutional landlords are being painted as big vulture funds that are coming in, but they're trying to help the housing crisis," he said.

This guy takes us all to be fools. He's probably right considering how long we've allowed this to go on.

Or his other quote " Not everyone want's to buy their own home " :rolleyes:

Jmc25

Housing affordability is the issue that, left unchecked, will lead to a SF government.

This has been fairly apparent for a few years now which makes it hard to understand how the government have not in any way changed policy direction. In fact the half hearted recent attacks on SF as the "anti housing party" or whatever would just make you wonder whether the government actually know this or if they're so wedded to the current thinking on housing that they intend to just plough on regardless.

Geuze

Jmc25 wrote: »

Housing affordability is the issue that, left unchecked, will lead to a SF government.

Yes.

I suppose I am centre-right, and FG should be my natural electoral home.

But they only have themselves to blame.

I have lost patience with FG and FF housing policy.

I don't support SF, I am against many of their policies, but I can see that Eoin O'Broin speaks some sense, although I don't agree with him fully.

standardg60

jill_valentine wrote: »

More or less complete continuity of centre right parties in government in my lifetime, but it's still somehow the left's fault the incumbents have no interest in cleaning up the post Tiger mess they made. The accommodation crisis is there, it is real, and it needs to be dealt with. Wanting that done is not a radical utopian ideal.​

The idea Ireland should be at least as capable of sheltering people as it was thirty years ago should not be partisan. The homelessness crisis is the responsibility of the parties in power, and measures and failures to deal with it are too. It is absurd to pretend otherwise, tails I win/heads you lose stuff. Elements of this government set this crisis in motion, aggravated it at every turn, and are still delivering a few final steaming turds to the table at the last minute.

It is nobody's fault but theirs that the ​half baked nonsense they cobbled together to give the illusion of doing something is a mess.

Thanks for posting this.
It is the perfect illustration of what i was arguing earlier, that it is our culture to always blame 'them', as if the parties in power are nothing to do with us, and that 'we' have never done anything except what is moral and right for the wellbeing of the nation as a whole.

standardg60

Geuze wrote: »

Yes.

I suppose I am centre-right, and FG should be my natural electoral home.

But they only have themselves to blame.

I have lost patience with FG and FF housing policy.

I don't support SF, I am against many of their policies, but I can see that Eoin O'Broin speaks some sense, although I don't agree with him fully.

The FG and FF housing policy is the SF policy, they are copying it because they are fearful of losing power. Of course idiots that they are they are only succeeding in exposing it's flaws, handing SF a mandate to make it even worse.

According to o'Broin earlier, the state has a 'limitless' supply of funding to throw at the housing market, music to the ears of any fund i'd imagine.

Beigepaint

standardg60 wrote: »

The FG and FF housing policy is the SF policy, they are copying it because they are fearful of losing power.

Dumb take of the month award.

O’Brien’s media appearances this week will be on reeling in the years, with the caption “Fianna Fail return just 11 TDs after post covid snap election”

What song will play over it?

“Fianna Fail leader Jack Chambers states the New housing plan would have worked… after three years or so”

handlemaster

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0504/1213801-mullen-park-investors-first-time-buyers-property-housing-estate/

Reading this its like its forgotten thst the government has succeed in driving away the small time local landlords. Housing has to be provided for remters also and investment institutions have been encouraged to be the provider.

combat14

any thoughts on ff/fg price caps e.g. 300,000 clare, 250,000 roscommon, 225,000 leitrim and so on...

Housing Minister denies price caps for affordable homes will be price targets for developers

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40281389.html%3ftype=amp


surely these prices for parts of the country are ridiculously high and are going to once again do nothing to help new home buyers

Wanderer78

handlemaster wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0504/1213801-mullen-park-investors-first-time-buyers-property-housing-estate/

Reading this its like its forgotten thst the government has succeed in driving away the small time local landlords. Housing has to be provided for remters also and investment institutions have been encouraged to be the provider.

yes, this is exactly what happens when you allow major sectors such as the fire sectors(finance, insurance, and real state) in control, i.e. it causes a monopolisation of markets, and a further increase in wealth inequality, we re truly screwed now, the only way out of this trap is major state intervention

thomas 123

It looks like the shared equity scheme will not apply to anyone self building - in my opinion removing any positive value from the scheme and just proving its cash for developers to be saddled onto anyone buying.

Robson99

combat14 wrote: »

any thoughts on ff/fg price caps e.g. 300,000 clare, 250,000 roscommon, 225,000 leitrim and so on...

Housing Minister denies price caps for affordable homes will be price targets for developers

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40281389.html%3ftype=amp


surely these prices for parts of the country are ridiculously high and are going to once again do nothing to help new home buyers

And who is going to pay the developers to build them.?
If developers are not making money why should they build them ?

JimmyVik

Who would have thought a few years ago that affordable would mean half a million euro :eek: