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2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*
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Wanderer78 wrote: »the government has to step in to sort this, in particularly in regards the financing of building, but we need the private sector to do most of the building
Something needs to happen. The cost of building has probably gone up 10% + in the last 12 months. That probably adds another 20k to the cost of building a 3 bed semi0 -
combat14 wrote:any thoughts on ff/fg price caps e.g. 300,000 clare, 250,000 roscommon, 225,000 leitrim and so on...
They seem at the higher end of average prices, would be interesting to contrast them against the daft report and actual selling prices
It appears that social is at the highest price, affordable is the next level down and the scraps for everyone else, who of course will be funding this scam. When it will obviously crash you will be funding that also
This is 100% developer/investor led as a result of lobbying from the same sector as Davys where the entire management team where proven to be involved in fraud against there own customers.
In many cases the state will be handing over the land to build
Seperatly who pays more for an apartment than a house especially when apartments look like being predominantly social and rental
There appears to be a media attack on funds buying up lately. They can't fill their lucrative property pages and extract there 30 pieces of silver from the market. This appears to have spooked the Gov, have they made a critical error.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out0 -
Something needs to happen. The cost of building has probably gone up 10% + in the last 12 months. That probably adds another 20k to the cost of building a 3 bed semi
there has been countless respected advisors telling the government what to do, and more importantly, what not to do, over the years, they are not listening
ronan lyons yesterday:
'Five years ago, I appeared before the Oireachtas Committee on Housing, on how to implement 'A Right to a Home for All'. Unfortunately, it is as relevant today as then - perhaps unsurprisingly so, given its three key recommendations remain untouched'
https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/committee/dail/32/committee_on_housing_and_homelessness/submissions/2016/2016-05-03_submission-dr-ronan-lyons-tcd_en.pdf0 -
Or his other quote " Not everyone want's to buy their own home " :rolleyes:
I love it (NOT) when they bring in a local agent or worse still a gormless local Cllr (standard if it’s a local tragedy). They tend to add very little to the conversation.
Developers and their agents are queuing up to these funds and the funds are cherrypicking. Mullen Park was the first example outside the M50 as well.
Two separate situations. The first one is a REIT whose role is to buy up swathes of residential properties and let them. Their business model is to let to high end professionals given the open market rents they can achieve. Dublin has been very attractive to them in that regard. A whole host of well paid tech workers coming into Ireland, never mind other young professionals who just want/need somewhere to live, as they work in Dublin. Please some one correct me but I am also hearing, albeit 2nd hand, that they are offloading some of their properties to the local authorities for social housing or are they taking on HAP tenants, to fill some of their empties? Not sure.
The second is the Fund who is acquiring whole developments and then leasing them to the local authority or AHB for up to 25 years, entirely for social housing. They are not buying anything but will only do so, once the Council says they will take them on. I did hear from a friend of one developer who has been trying to offload his site to a Fund, but they won’t take it as the Council don’t want it. There are also now examples coming out of the woodwork of business entities buying one off properties across Dublin, batching these up as portfolios and entering into lease deals with the Councils. These guys are then looking to sell on these portfolios to Funds.
And we’ve forgotten all of a sudden about Co-Op living. That was last year’s bête noire.0 -
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I live in that general area and have already seen several retail units vacated. Think i'll go out at lunchtime and do a quick count..Amadan Dubh wrote: »Now it seems that 1 in 3 shops on Henry St, Dublin may stay closed even after restrictions ease. With all restrictions easing by July, it is worrying what sort of economic fallout we will see from covid (as we have not really seen much, if any, economic fallout as of yet due to government supports).0 -
Two separate situations. The first one is a REIT whose role is to buy up swathes of residential properties and let them. Their business model is to let to high end professionals given the open market rents they can achieve. Dublin has been very attractive to them in that regard. A whole host of well paid tech workers coming into Ireland, never mind other young professionals who just want/need somewhere to live, as they work in Dublin. Please some one correct me but I am also hearing, albeit 2nd hand, that they are offloading some of their properties to the local authorities for social housing or are they taking on HAP tenants, to fill some of their empties? Not sure.
This is a tough one for the REIT's. If you are that young professional paying top dollar and then HAP is used to fill the rest you might consider moving on when your lease it up. On the other hand as you can see most of the new builds are priced out of the reach of these young professionals so the vacancy level is very high. The question boils down to how long they can sit on the vacant ones. Either way if HAP was not the renter of last resort at such high prices we would have considerably cheaper rents.0 -
This is a tough one for the REIT's. If you are that young professional paying top dollar and then HAP is used to fill the rest you might consider moving on when your lease it up. On the other hand as you can see most of the new builds are priced out of the reach of these young professionals so the vacancy level is very high. The question boils down to how long they can sit on the vacant ones. Either way if HAP was not the renter of last resort at such high prices we would have considerably cheaper rents.
I think thats exactly it.
They are in negotiations with councils to rent the empty ones for 25 years to them for a huge price.
And even if they dont come to an arrangement, come the autumn there will be a huge influx of people into Dublin form all over Ireland and abroad and they will rent them easily then.0 -
Forgive as it adds nothing to the discussion but this morning I woke up feeling very relieved that there is outrage.
Under the last Fianna Fail led government I was pissing in the wind warning family, friends and colleagues about the property bubble, but at least now they're all outraged by Fianna Fail's latest housing disaster. It's weird but I find it strangely comforting.
Maybe this time Fianna Fail will be dispatched entirely at the polls as even their most conservative secure home owning voter must be wondering if some vulture fund will buy the house for sale next door and move in problem tenants.0 -
Forgive as it adds nothing to the discussion but this morning I woke up feeling very relieved that there is outrage.
Under the last Fianna Fail led government I was pissing in the wind with family, friends and colleagues about the property bubble, but at least now they're all outraged by Fianna Fail's latest housing disaster. It's weird but I find strangely comforting.
Maybe this time Fianna Fail will be dispatched entirely at the polls as even their most conservative secure home owning voter must be wondering if some vulture fund will buy the house for sale next door and move in problem tenants.
ive been outraged for years over this, this is absolutely disgraceful stuff from both ffg, but also supporting government parties and others, this problem is now so serious, it in fact is jeopardising every aspect of our economy and society0 -
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Are we just calling everything a vulture fund now?0
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Forgive as it adds nothing to the discussion but this morning I woke up feeling very relieved that there is outrage.
Under the last Fianna Fail led government I was pissing in the wind with family, friends and colleagues about the property bubble, but at least now they're all outraged by Fianna Fail's latest housing disaster. It's weird but I find strangely comforting.
Maybe this time Fianna Fail will be dispatched entirely at the polls as even their most conservative secure home owning voter must be wondering if some vulture fund will buy the house for sale next door and move in problem tenants.
FF are going nowhere, while people will be snorting fire in public behind the scenes almost 70% of the population own property why would they want to see their financial situation diminished. The REITS and the likes are pushing their balance sheet up.. Now I am not saying this is right but you will find FF are worse than cockroaches even if you squish its head it can continue living.
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/ireland-has-lowest-rate-of-home-ownership-in-almost-50-years-dail-told-38278560.html0 -
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fliball123 wrote: »FF are going no where, while people will be snorting fire in public behind the scenes almost 70% of the population own property why would they want to see their financial situation diminished. The REITS and the likes are pushing their balance sheet up.. Now I am not saying this is right but you will find FF are worse than cockroaches even if you squish its head it can continue living.
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/ireland-has-lowest-rate-of-home-ownership-in-almost-50-years-dail-told-38278560.html
This argument has been addressed umpteen times here already
70% of the population are not looking to sell up and move abroad, so won't see any huge benefit from rising prices.
I'd say substantially more people of that 70% have children looking to buy - than have 2nd or 3rd properties that they can sell and avail of the equity.0 -
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This argument has been addressed umpteen times here already
70% of the population are not looking to sell up and move abroad, so won't see any huge benefit from rising prices.
I'd say substantially more people of that 70% have children looking to buy - than have 2nd or 3rd properties that they can sell and avail of the equity.
it is the fact, that we continually prioritise these owners needs, particularly the value of their property, over every ones else needs, has lead us to here, and we re still doing it0 -
Yesterday added a new twist for the die hard self serving Fianna Fail voter in that their own property value may be seriously threatened if a vulture fund buys the house next door and a feral mob is moved in.fliball123 wrote: »FF are going nowhere, while people will be snorting fire in public behind the scenes almost 70% of the population own property why would they want to see their financial situation diminished. The REITS and the likes are pushing their balance sheet up.. Now I am not saying this is right but you will find FF are worse than cockroaches even if you squish its head it can continue living.
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/ireland-has-lowest-rate-of-home-ownership-in-almost-50-years-dail-told-38278560.html
It's white terror for the landed Fianna Fail voter to have social housing as a neighbour. They loved it when vulture funds raised their property price, but they don't want vulture funds picking their neighbours.0 -
Wanderer78 wrote: »it is the fact, that we continually prioritise these owners needs, particularly the value of their property, over every ones else needs, has lead us to here, and we re still doing it
if its a fact then why not present some evidence?
You continually derail these threads with baseless broad statements such as these but never have anything to back them up.0 -
if its a fact then why not present some evidence?
You continually derail these threads with baseless broad statements such as these but never have anything to back them up.
theres loads of facts on this, our whole approach to housing has been to completely facilitate asset owners, in particular property and land owners, nearly all of the stats point towards this, particularly in relation to prices, this is exactly what happens when you allow the fire sectors to dictate your economy, what data would you like?0 -
This argument has been addressed umpteen times here already
70% of the population are not looking to sell up and move abroad, so won't see any huge benefit from rising prices.
I'd say substantially more people of that 70% have children looking to buy - than have 2nd or 3rd properties that they can sell and avail of the equity.
Well then it has not been addressed correctly no one wants to be less well off than they are that includes the 70% of people who own a property.
Also step back and think about it most parents will do their best to look after their kids themselves instead of the state stepping in more chance of a rich daddy and mammy looking after young Charles than leaving it to the state to give them a hand up.
If I had a few quid I would be buying a few gaffs giving them to the government for 20/25 years and using the money gained you could be funneling cash into young Charles bank account without any fuss and without raising any red flags with the tax man and Charles is sorted and when you die Charles gets a nice inheritance, he will have to pay inheritance tax after 335k. Now if you have 2 or 3 kids Charles, Porshe and Queenie thats nearly a million going to your kids untouched by the state. Now ask yourself the question as a parent do you really want the value you of your house dropping? To think people will always put the needs of the social good instead of their own interests is just barmy more times than not they look after themselves and couldnt give a flying feck how anyone else is.0 -
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Yesterday added a new twist for the die hard self serving Fianna Fail voter in that their own property value may be seriously threatened if a vulture fund buys the house next door and a feral mob is moved in.
It's white terror for the landed Fianna Fail voter to have social housing as a neighbour. They loved it when vulture funds raised their property price, but they don't want vulture funds picking their neighbours.
Well good enough for them it will put paid to the amount of Nimbyism in the country0 -
Cilldara_2000 wrote: »Those of us who are more concerned with good outcomes and what's best for the country would hope to get SF into power because the centre-right consensus backed up by Labour has been shown to be completely unworkable and unaffordable for the ordinary people. They literally couldn't be any worse than what has gone on so far. Hoping that they get blamed for a mess not of their making is pathetic.
Also, had to laugh at this quote in the article on rte.ie:
https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0504/1213801-mullen-park-investors-first-time-buyers-property-housing-estate/
After being locked out of the housing estate, the Prime Time crew was later permitted into Mullen Park to interview Damien Dillon, an agent with Dillon Marshall Property Consultants, which is working with the developer.
"Institutional landlords are being painted as big vulture funds that are coming in, but they're trying to help the housing crisis," he said.
This guy takes us all to be fools. He's probably right considering how long we've allowed this to go on.
While it is becoming more likely by the day that SF will get into power in the next election, I haven't heard Eoin O Broin state anything hardcore about REITs. He has only said that they need to be taxed more. I'm not sure that that is enough.
The Social Democrats' Cian O Callaghan has said that they should be banned from buying property altogether. The latter will get my vote based on this alone.0 -
fliball123 wrote: »Well then it has not been addressed correctly no one wants to be less well off than they are that includes the 70% of people who own a property.
Also step back and think about it most parents will do their best to look after their kids themselves instead of the state stepping in more chance of a rich daddy and mammy looking after young Charles than leaving it to the state to give them a hand up.
If I had a few quid I would be buying a few gaffs giving them to the government for 20/25 years and using the money gained you could be funneling cash into young Charles bank account without any fuss and without raising any red flags with the tax man and Charles is sorted and when you die Charles gets a nice inheritance, he will have to pay inheritance tax after 335k. Now if you have 2 or 3 kids Charles, Porshe and Queenie thats nearly a million going to your kids untouched by the state. Now ask yourself the question as a parent do you really want the value you of your house dropping? To think people always always put the needs of the social good instead of their own interests is just barmy more times than not they look after themselves and couldnt give a flying feck how anyone else is.
These hypotheticals have no bearing on reality - you've just created a situation in your head to justify your pov.
Most people who own 1 home (that they live in) cannot realise any gains in equity from prices rising. If they want to trade up (or down) there is little gain there, because not only did their property raise in value, but all others did too.
They cannot remortgage the house to take advantage of the extra equity and buy something nice for themselves - those days are long gone. Banks wont do that anymore.
So I guess it all comes down to inheritance - but yet again, what good is a big inheritance from the family home because:
1) increase in price means its more likely to hit the CGT threshold
2) increase in price means that more of the inheritance will be spent buying a house anyways
So there really is no benefit.
The only people to benefit from the increase in house prices is speculators/investors - but the 70% of homeowners in the state are not all investors or speculators. Majority only own 1 home and that is the family home.0 -
Ironically it's the threat of social housing landing next door that will have craven Fianna Fail supporter actually finally advocate for prioritising building social housing rather than reducing the housing list via private rentals.fliball123 wrote: »Well good enough for them it will put paid to the amount of Nimbyism in the country0 -
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These hypotheticals have no bearing on reality - you've just created a situation in your head to justify your pov.
Most people who own 1 home (that they live in) cannot realise any gains in equity from prices rising. If they want to trade up (or down) there is little gain there, because not only did their property raise in value, but all others did too.
They cannot remortgage the house to take advantage of the extra equity and buy something nice for themselves - those days are long gone. Banks wont do that anymore.
So I guess it all comes down to inheritance - but yet again, what good is a big inheritance from the family home because:
1) increase in price means its more likely to hit the CGT threshold
2) increase in price means that more of the inheritance will be spent buying a house anyways
So there really is no benefit.
The only people to benefit from the increase in house prices is speculators/investors - but the 70% of homeowners in the state are not all investors or speculators. Majority only own 1 home and that is the family home.
So your telling me that any of the 70% who own a property and have kids want their house price to drop? In my analogy no one sold and moved abroad and no one upsized or downsized or remortgaged. It is all about maximizing what you have to pass on to your kids. Personally speaking and I am sure a lot of parents would be of the same mindset, it would be nice to leave this world and know your kid(s) are sorted financially.
So you think that in your analogy of the person having one house and say the average for kids is 2? So you think that the parents in this situation don't see any benefit in passing on a house that is worth more ?? I don't understand that logic at all. The kid will get 335k tax free from the house and then 67% of anything over this amount. Just as an aside the average house price is well below this 335k.
So there is a benefit to my 2 kids if my house keeps going up in value when I die they get more. That is a benefit. I might not see it but they will. Sorry if this goes against the social good but I am looking after me and my own as no one else will do it. This is the reality a lot of people are living in and its not hypothetical.0 -
fliball123 wrote: »So there is a benefit to my 2 kids if my house keeps going up in value when I die they get more. That is a benefit. I might not see it but they will. Sorry if this goes against the social good but I am looking after me and my own as no one else will do it.
House prices dropping is also a benefit to your children - in that its more affordable for them to buy their own house. I would much rather see my children able to buy a house of their own, than have to wait until I die so that they might get enough money from inheritance to buy a nice home.
From that POV it is a zero sum game - an increase to the value of their inheritance means an increase to the cost of them buying a house. In fact, for 2 children, a house price decrease is actually more valuable - because they will each buy a house, but the inheritance is based on the price of 1 house only.
So property prices decreasing is actually more beneficial to your children than an increase - a zero sum game for 1 child, but 2 or more and decreases are preferable to increases.0 -
fliball123 wrote: »So your telling me that any of the 70% who own a property and have kids want their house price to drop? In my analogy no one sold and moved abroad and no one upsized or downsized or remortgaged. It is all about maximizing what you have to pass on to your kids. Personally speaking and I am sure a lot of parents would be of the same mindset, it would be nice to leave this world and know your kid(s) are sorted financially.
So you think that in your analogy of the person having one house and say the average for kids is 2? So you think that the parents in this situation don't see any benefit in passing on a house that is worth more ?? I don't understand that logic at all. The kid will get 335k tax free from the house and then 67% of anything over this amount. Just as an aside the average house price is well below this 335k.
So there is a benefit to my 2 kids if my house keeps going up in value when I die they get more. That is a benefit. I might not see it but they will. Sorry if this goes against the social good but I am looking after me and my own as no one else will do it. This is the reality a lot of people are living in and its not hypothetical.
I'm not saying it's universal, and I've no doubt for most wealthy homeowners, they do want house prices to increases. But just a personal anecdote - my parents would have €2-3m+ in equity across multiple houses/apartments and definitely would have previously cheered rising house prices.
Over the last year or so, hearing me talk about friends, seeing sons/daughters/nieces/nephews (who are Doctors, Lawyers, Accountants etc.) living at home til their mid 30s, I think the penny is finally starting to drop with them that whether their net worth is €5m or €6m really doesn't matter and they'd rather see their family living the lives they were able to live.
As for inheritance, hopefully me and my siblings won't see a penny of it until we're in our 60s. What use is it then. We all keep telling them we don't want a cent of their money anyway - buy a boat and Ferrari, enjoy it.0 -
These hypotheticals have no bearing on reality - you've just created a situation in your head to justify your pov.
Most people who own 1 home (that they live in) cannot realise any gains in equity from prices rising. If they want to trade up (or down) there is little gain there, because not only did their property raise in value, but all others did too.
They cannot remortgage the house to take advantage of the extra equity and buy something nice for themselves - those days are long gone. Banks wont do that anymore.
So I guess it all comes down to inheritance - but yet again, what good is a big inheritance from the family home because:
1) increase in price means its more likely to hit the CGT threshold
2) increase in price means that more of the inheritance will be spent buying a house anyways
So there really is no benefit.
The only people to benefit from the increase in house prices is speculators/investors - but the 70% of homeowners in the state are not all investors or speculators. Majority only own 1 home and that is the family home.
Yep. Even the scheme outlined becomes more difficult. BTL for €330k maybe, BTL for €660k is a lot harder.
For us looking to trade up, 20% extra for our house is great. Woohoo, that is another 100k but 20% extra at the top is an extra €200k. So we end up paying an extra €100k.
My mother lives in a large 4 bed and wouldn't move because of her neighbours. I don't see that many downsizing or leaving the country or those with a second property looking to cash in and they are the only categories that would benefit.... A very small percentage.0 -
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House prices dropping is also a benefit to your children - in that its more affordable for them to buy their own house. I would much rather see my children able to buy a house of their own, than have to wait until I die so that they might get enough money from inheritance to buy a nice home.
From that POV it is a zero sum game - an increase to the value of their inheritance means an increase to the cost of them buying a house. In fact, for 2 children, a house price decrease is actually more valuable - because they will each buy a house, but the inheritance is based on the price of 1 house only.
So property prices decreasing is actually more beneficial to your children than an increase - a zero sum game for 1 child, but 2 or more and decreases are preferable to increases.
Can you be sure about that. The problem I see in your POV is that You, I or anyone else do not have a clue if and when property prices will drop or when they will drop or when they will rise, add in interest rates will they rise, how much will they rise by, add in scarcity of property available for sale.
Forgive me if this seems to go against the social good but I think in my scenario the better option for my 2 kids is the property I live in goes up and they can get a windfall when I pass. Too many unknowns in your scenario.
The kids are more than welcome to live here until I hit the tombstone so they wont have to pay out crazy rents and be able to save. I know that at some stage they will have to fly to coup but I think it will be good for them to struggle for a bit in the face of what people have to pay to live in this country on a day to day basis. Also it will give them an option of not having to live in Ireland or having to live in highly desirable areas within Ireland. They could move to a country with cheaper housing or to a county where housing is a lot cheaper with WFH now becoming an acceptable way of doing business people don't need to live in Dublin or Cork to work there. So I understand what your saying about they will need to buy a house but they will not have to buy the house they are living in now they can use that money and set themselves up elsewhere. So in my scenario my kids will have a lot more options and a lot less uncertainty.0
This discussion has been closed.
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