2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

timmyntc

PropQueries wrote: »

Basically because I believe the funds, Reits etc. control a much bigger share of the property market than many assume and as they leave they will destroy all value gained in the property market over the past several years.

Easier repossessions would mean they’re not going to hang around to see if a SF or similar party enters power in the next few years IMO

And it doesn’t look like we can rely on massive future increases in FDI or borrowing going forward to pay for such a fallout.

Either way, your right and it’s a good policy. But I think the Irish economy is going to be much much different in two years time. I’m thinking near enough a modern day equivalent of the 1950’s and I’m not actually exaggerating a point to make a point this time

I would agree with you on most but predictions of a return to 1950s value property :pac:

While it might be nice for a cheap house, I cant see it happening at all.
Prices will stagnate or rise if anything - investment funds need to chase yield, and if they do control so much of the property market, why would they all pull the plug? They can keep rents high and property values high using the large amount of assets they have - a SF govt cant change this.

If govt started a massive house building scheme, prices may slowly decline. But I cannot see any crash like last time. There is at its crux, a supply and demand issue.

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

Basically because I believe the funds, Reits etc. control a much bigger share of the property market than many assume and as they leave they will destroy all value gained in the property market over the past several years.

Easier repossessions would mean they’re not going to hang around to see if a SF or similar party enters power in the next few years IMO

And it doesn’t look like we can rely on massive future increases in FDI or borrowing going forward to pay for such a fallout.

Either way, your right and it’s a good policy. But I think the Irish economy is going to be much much different in two years time. I’m thinking near enough 1950’s and I’m not actually exaggerating a point to make a point this time

This is what I am trying to understand. The idea that if the REITS leave thus destroying all value gained in the property market over the past several years means our economy is destroyed?

It's simply equating high property prices with a healthy economy and it does not make sense.

It's not like vulture funds leaving is going to drive up unemployment, or hammer MNC earnings. I doubt ta take will be heavily impacted, sure they don't pay much tax anyway.

So yes, property prices will fall because there would be a dramatic increase in supply, but how does the increase in supply of houses destroy our economy?

timmyntc

schmittel wrote: »

This is what I am trying to understand. The idea that if the REITS leave thus destroying all value gained in the property market over the past several years means our economy is destroyed?

It's simply equating high property prices with a healthy economy and it does not make sense.

It's not like vulture funds leaving is going to drive up unemployment, or hammer MNC earnings. I doubt ta take will be heavily impacted, sure they don't pay much tax anyway.

So yes, property prices will fall because there would be a dramatic increase in supply, but how does the increase in supply of houses destroy our economy?

IF that were too happen (big if) - the value of existing houses could drop well below the cost to build new houses, and developers would go out of work due to a glut of supply. Once our construction industry is gone then we'll be in trouble.

hometruths

timmyntc wrote: »

IF that were too happen (big if) - the value of existing houses could drop well below the cost to build new houses, and developers would go out of work due to a glut of supply. Once our construction industry is gone then we'll be in trouble.

The health of our economy is no longer reliant on the health of the construction sector thank goodness.

Going back to Props point about Sisk building for 180k it sounds like they have room to drop. And if builders are all downing tools because margins have collapsed sounds like the perfect opportunity for the government to use the money saved on HAP payments and divert to employ the construction sector to build social houses.

They're already giving them a dig out taking 2 bed apartments off them for 750k a pop, I'd have no problem if the government bailed out the builders at 300k a pop.

Still not convinced any of the above means our economy is in the toilet.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

This is what I am trying to understand. The idea that if the REITS leave thus destroying all value gained in the property market over the past several years means our economy is destroyed?

It's simply equating high property prices with a healthy economy and it does not make sense.

It's not like vulture funds leaving is going to drive up unemployment, or hammer MNC earnings. I doubt ta take will be heavily impacted, sure they don't pay much tax anyway.

So yes, property prices will fall because there would be a dramatic increase in supply, but how does the increase in supply of houses destroy our economy?

From my perspective, we have four main areas. Multinationals, property, tourism and agriculture.

All four are under sustained attack at the moment.

The public sector and most of the rest of the economy live off these and their workers wages.

Multinationals here are under attack from the Biden/EU tax reforms. Agri is under attack from CAP reform/ climate change etc. Tourism is under attack by plans in Europe to try get rid or limit low cost air travel due to climate change (e.g. france is planning to ban or limit short-haul flights in France etc.). The property market is massively influenced by the future decisions of the funds in Ireland.

The future direction of the Irish economy and property market is now in the hands of people/organisations we have little or no control over IMO

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

Tourism is under attack by plans in Europe to try get rid or limit low cost air travel due to climate change (e.g. france is planning to ban or limit short-haul flights in France etc.). [

The French plans are specifically and solely for domestic flights with alternative high speed rail. International flights are very hard to restrict due to the treaties involved. It will be quite some time before there's a realistic restriction even proposed for that.

yagan

PropQueries wrote: »

From my perspective, we have four main areas. Multinationals, property, tourism and agriculture.

All four are under sustained attack at the moment.

The public sector and most of the rest of the economy live off these and their workers wages.

Multinationals here are under attack from the Biden/EU tax reforms. Agri is under attack from CAP reform/ climate change etc. Tourism is under attack by plans in Europe to try get rid or limit low cost air travel due to climate change (e.g. france is planning to ban or limit short-haul flights in France etc.). The property market is massively influenced by the future decisions of the funds in Ireland.

The future direction of the Irish economy and property market is now in the hands of people/organisations we have little or no control over IMO

I think I read that workers in tourism paye contributions were miniscule as it's mostly lower/no tax band jobs and these days mostly employing students, immigrants, and part timers.

There was a time when working in a tourist office was a mortageagable job but that ended decades ago. Older voters might think it's an important sector but it really isn't in the greater scheme of things.

PropQueries

L1011 wrote: »

The French plans are specifically and solely for domestic flights with alternative high speed rail. International flights are very hard to restrict due to the treaties involved. It will be quite some time before there's a realistic restriction even proposed for that.

Maybe. But they may start taxing them at an EU level to combat climate change etc. a lot sooner.

The Germans and French don’t like Ryanair etc. due to it’s impact on their national carriers.

Throw in multinationals limiting business travel to boost their carbon footprint image and the tourism sector (especially in the cities) could be hit badly IMO

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

From my perspective, we have four main areas. Multinationals, property, tourism and agriculture.

All four are under sustained attack at the moment.

The public sector and most of the rest of the economy live off these and their workers wages.

Multinationals here are under attack from the Biden/EU tax reforms. Agri is under attack from CAP reform/ climate change etc. Tourism is under attack by plans in Europe to try get rid or limit low cost air travel due to climate change (e.g. france is planning to ban or limit short-haul flights in France etc.). The property market is massively influenced by the future decisions of the funds in Ireland.

The future direction of the Irish economy and property market is now in the hands of people/organisations we have little or no control over IMO

Getting back to the original point, none of the above explains why repossessing homes in default would tank our economy.

I believe Irish thinking is too ingrained with high prices = good economy, low prices = bad economy.

We have heard it loads of times on here, be careful what you wish for, if prices dropped, we're all f8cked why would you wish for that etc etc.

It completely ignores the question of what causes prices to drop.

If prices drop because the economy falters and unemployment rockets, then yes we're all f8cked to some degree or another.

But the economy does not falter because property prices drop.

A lot of people have got their ideas of cause and effect arseways. IMO.

yagan

schmittel wrote: »

Getting back to the original point, none of the above explains why repossessing homes in default would tank our economy.

A better repossession regime would be better for everyone, but before that's politically acceptable the current fiasco of FTB having to bid for a home against their own government and vulture funds has to end.

Bringing up repossessions as a priority after this weeks events is political suicide.

It's grand to talk hypotheticals but try selling repossessions to the voter. After the Maynooth fiasco I've hear life long Fianna Fail voters say their going SF next just to get the piggies snout out of the trough. I reckon this week will have as big an effect on Irish politics as the Eamon Casey affair had on the RCC faithful.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe. But they may start taxing them at an EU level to combat climate change etc. a lot sooner.

The Germans and French don’t like Ryanair etc. due to it’s impact on their national carriers.

Throw in multinationals limiting business travel to boost their carbon footprint image and the tourism sector (especially in the cities) could be hit badly IMO

If that happens, the EU will have to subsidize flights to and from a little Island isolated off the coast of Europe. We will be to the EU what the Arran Isands are to Ireland.

Villa05

RichardAnd wrote:

If one attempts to question the ethical nature of the council's out-biding working people to provide social housing, they will be attacked by an army of lefties.

This is incorrect, they advocate self build from what I have heard

Cyrus wrote:

The argument for years was that we dont have enough institutional landlords and there is no option to rent long term, thats what these funds will provide but now we dont want that either.

I don't know if you watched the prime time episode on Tuesday related to this topic, but in summary
Government have attracted short term funds whose objective is to maximise rents, price appreciation so in effect they manafacture a bubble to maximise returns.
The long term pension funds that operate in Germany and other mature markets were contacted and asked why they were not getting involved and they cited this reason and that they wanted long term consistent returns. What was happening here was unsustainable and likely to be boom bust

Cyrus wrote:

Maybe Sisk can make more money doing other things now?

Sisk have a specific division for building affordable homes. Common sense probably drove them to set up such a division. Unfortunately common sense is lacking in politics/market

Bass Reeves wrote:

We have over the last twenty years increased the specification on houses and this had added to cost. As well costs will be higher in Dublin than elsewhere for tradespeople and time inefficiency effects costs. Sisks building costs in 2018 could not compare to what they would quite now

With regard to the 2018 costs. Specification Standards for build to rent have reduced to drive activity

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Getting back to the original point, none of the above explains why repossessing homes in default would tank our economy.

I believe Irish thinking is too ingrained with high prices = good economy, low prices = bad economy.

We have heard it loads of times on here, be careful what you wish for, if prices dropped, we're all f8cked why would you wish for that etc etc.

It completely ignores the question of what causes prices to drop.

If prices drop because the economy falters and unemployment rockets, then yes we're all f8cked to some degree or another.

But the economy does not falter because property prices drop.

A lot of people have got their ideas of cause and effect arseways. IMO.

Depends on if or how much property values fall I guess. When the newspapers publish those household wealth reports, what percentage is down to property values?

hometruths

yagan wrote: »

A better repossession regime would be better for everyone, but before that's politically acceptable the current fiasco of FTB having to bid for a home against their own government and vulture funds has to end.

Bringing up repossessions as a priority after this weeks events is political suicide.

It's grand to talk hypotheticals but try selling repossessions to the voter. After the Maynooth fiasco I've hear life long Fianna Fail voters say their going SF next just to get the piggies snout out of the trough. I reckon this week will have as big an effect on Irish politics as the Eamon Casey affair had on the RCC faithful.

I think this political suicide thing is another fairly weak argument against repossessions.

Its become the accepted narrative because it would have been political suicide in the climate of ten years ago, when the economy was in the toilet etc etc.

But now? 10 years later.

A politician stands up and says one of the reasons our housing market is f8cked is because we have the highest rates of mortgage defaults in the world, people who have not paid their mortgage in over 10 years, and all of us are paying for it. It is time to tackle the problem for the greater good.

Is that really political suicide today? If saying that we should allow people to not pay their mortgage for years on end and retain ownership of their homes is genuinely political suicide then we deserve the housing problems we have.

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

Depends on if or how much property values fall I guess. When the newspapers publish those household wealth reports, what percentage is down to property values?

A huge amount. Far greater than what they earn.

But values falling due to an increase in supply of repossessed homes is not going to translate into a drop in what they earn.

yagan

schmittel wrote: »

I think this political suicide thing is another fairly weak argument against repossessions.

Where did I argue against it?

I said after this weeks events it's not a political priority.

Older voters secure in their high valued mortgage free property suddenly cop that vulture funds can snag the house next door and move in the neighbours from hell because no matter what their own government has guaranteed a rental income stream from their tax money!

I'd be infavour of a better repossession regime, but I do not see them causing the reason that a mortgage approved FTB is being outbid by their own tax money and rent farmers.

It's grand to have an international economy, but internationalising the housing stock is leading to voter repulsion.

Again I say imagine yourself on the doorstep trying to persuade voters that repos will solve everything and you'll be told to go shove it.

And to iterate I support a better repo regime, but until the car crash that successive government have created is untangled I reckon repo reform is down the priority list.

Hubertj

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/43-leeson-park-ranelagh-dublin-6-d06nr40/4498886

This is very nice but €4m? Kitchen seems very “meh”

hometruths

yagan wrote: »

Where did I argue against it?

I said after this weeks events it's not a political priority.

Older voters secure in their high valued mortgage free property suddenly cop that vulture funds can snag the house next door and move in the neighbours from hell because no matter what their own government has guaranteed a rental income stream from their tax money!

I'd be infavour of a better repossession regime, but I do not see them causing the reason that a mortgage approved FTB is being outbid by their own tax money and rent farmers.

It's grand to have an international economy, but internationalising the housing stock is leading to voter repulsion.

Again I say imagine yourself on the doorstep trying to persuade voters that repos will solve everything and you'll be told to go shove it.

And to iterate I support a better repo regime, but until the car crash that successive government have created is untangled I reckon repo reform is down the priority list.

By weak argument I meant it is trotted out a lot whenever anybody mentions that we should be repossessing.

As long as the electorate believe that repossessing houses would be political suicide then repossessing houses is political suicide and no government will consider it.

It's the electorate's viewpoint that needs to change, not the politicians.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/43-leeson-park-ranelagh-dublin-6-d06nr40/4498886

This is very nice but €4m? Kitchen seems very “meh”

John Rocha's house. Designer kitchen.

yagan

schmittel wrote: »

It's the electorate's viewpoint that needs to change, not the politicians.

The electorate will embrace repo reform where the property market favours home buyers rather than rent farmers.

hometruths

yagan wrote: »

The electorate will embrace repo reform where the property market favours home buyers rather than rent farmers.

Chicken and egg situation. Market will not favour home buyers until the arrears are washed through.

yagan

schmittel wrote: »

Chicken and egg situation. Market will not favour home buyers until the arrears are washed through.

It isn't chicken and egg. It's simply institutional money crowding out home buyers.

Prioritising repos won't stop rent farmers domestic and foreign from crowding out home buyers. Infact they'll hoover up the repos while the home buyers remains sidelined from home ownership.

This is not an idealogical position like Micheal Martin would like to believe. This is an absolute mess that needs untangling.

Fianna Fail and FG TDs aren't returning calls and emails because they're getting absolutely battered by their own grassroots who are convulsed by this week.

Edit to add, the Maynooth purchase is an existential crisis for the electorate. Either FFG prioritise homebuyers over foreign and domestic corporate dominance or they'll get wiped out at the voting booth.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

John Rocha's house. Designer kitchen.

It’s just plain and white though. Should it not be more designery than that?

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

It’s just plain and white though. Should it not be more designery than that?

It's not my thing, but I think a lot of plain and white passes for top design!

timmyntc

Hubertj wrote: »

It’s just plain and white though. Should it not be more designery than that?

As a designer he obviously appreciates that most "designery" stuff is just a fad and goes out of date after a few years!

Arthur Daley

It's a very minimalist way of living for the size of the place. Couldn't be a hoarder living there anyway

fiachraX

Having your bathroom opening onto a terrace is a bit different anyway!

Hubertj

fiachraX wrote: »

Having your bathroom opening onto a terrace is a bit different anyway!

Didn’t even notice that! Plenty of privacy at least!

fliball123

Beigepaint wrote: »

You are living in a rage fantasy and it is the responsibility of sensible people like me who comment in this thread to challenge you.

You understand that lots of people from all over the political spectrum read this thread eg. TD's staff, radio station researchers, interested citizens with money to invest and thousands of couples who wonder if they will afford to both buy a house AND have kids.



When you post things like this you are really flagging yourself as totally out of touch. We have never had a left government in this country and we have very few lefty policies. This is why our housing crisis is international news. New York Times Link. The small number of NEETs in this country is not something you should be in a lather about. Some people will never work. It's the same in every country. There are not that many people like that. Get over it. Stop worrying about it. Move on.



Politicians watch the demographics and they know that eventually the people in my generation who are locked out of property will reach a critical mass and then they will start pandering to us.
Probably another ten years to go. Until then, the older people 60+ will be taken care of at the expense of my generation.

My dream is that non rich people will once again be able to afford to get married, have kids and buy houses before they are 30.

I'm 32, so I missed out on that, but I would like my younger sister who is 20, and my younger work colleagues to have the opportunities that my parents had in the 80s.

We may never have had an actively open left leaning government but when it comes to policy we are very left leaning. I dont know how you can say we have very few left leaning policies when we are paid out 23 Billion in welfare last year alone. Is that not sharing the wealth enough for you? If you cannot see this then I am afraid its you who is out of touch with reality. You only have to look our welfare rates and if we were not that left leaning with so much support for our poor we would not of had we had an influx of migration into the country in the 4/5 years before Covid. The country is rife with people looking for handouts and for bailing out the Rich. Dont get me wrong its not just the lefties in here its the people who think they should be allowed stay in their house without paying the mortgage and its left to those in the middle to continuously pay for all while being asked to pay again for any service they use such as GP, Hospitals etc. Yet you think this is ok and then you tell me to not worry about it. Well if you cant afford a house its ok dont worry about it? MOVE ON? How does that feel. You need to understand that while we are overpaying our public servants both current and retired as well as our welfare rates money is been taken away from other areas like housing but you dont seem to be able to join those dots with this regard.

Just as an example of our left leaning policies one which will hit home to your and your current narrative. So your in your 30s and your working and trying to afford to have kids and a house, Yet if a person decides (say a young lady) to say feck this working malarky they can have a few kids and be given a gaff while your left working not being able to afford your own kids yet your expected to pay for theres. So do you think this is fair? Your blinkered if you think this country is not left leaning.

So if you want your dream just bang out a few kids and go on the housing list the more kids the higher up your bumped in the queue for a house..

The problem currently with housing is that we have not got enough houses and that REITS/vultures funds and the government are soaking up what little supply is there. Why are the government doing this?? The main reason is Sinn Fein have been breathing down FF/FGs necks over the last 3/4 years and their main bone of contention has been housing and the lefties are shouting loudest about homeless people and people not getting on the ladder and the government have been panicking and scrambling over the last few years throw in Covid and the ability to build being stymied along side the issue of REITS/Vultures buying up full property complexes. The govenment in their infinite wisdom have decided the quickest way is to try and sort out housing is buy, competing with other FTBs and other couples buying property as well as opening up rental schemes where they are paying the highest penny for rentals.

People on here think it should be up to existing home owners to pay more to help others who have not got a house which is wrong. They have already paid and as long as they are working they will be paying continuously through taxation. As I said you have choices you are in your 30s no one owes you anything. If you want a house save for it. If you want it sooner buy a smaller house in an area that is not located in one of highly populated areas in the country. If you dont want to support our golden oldies you can leave the country you have a choice to stay here or not.

Also remember your parents didnt have it all handy you need to look at what the interest rates were on mortgages and stamp duty rates were on houses back then as well as unemployment rates and emigration rates where back in the 80s before you think it was all fairy tales and gold dust. They just didnt kick up a fuss and moved away and got on with their lifes if there was no work or could not afford a house.. There has never been an period where buying a house was easy for working people.

fliball123

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

I do agree that the best thing for the housing market would be an economic crash. Given the watery foundation on which the economy is built (ie morally devoid MNC growth and tax avoidance practices), I don't think it would be that big of a deal for us to have to be forced into a more diverse way in how we grow our economy. Losing the massive immigration stream from other EU countries in order to fill customer service roles in Big Tech subsidiaries would do wonders for the housing crisis.

I cant believe people think a crash will help when it comes to peoples ability to buy a property. If anything during a crash the rich get richer as they are in a position to capitalize while those looking to buy will see finances further restricted on them. Be careful what you wish for.