2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Inflation, it's where we are heading to

Never believe in songs from media
There will be massive deflation
When all printed money will simply burn when markets will collapse
Look to markets capitalization and you will see were printed money goes.
When buble will explode same as it was in 2008 everything will back to normal same as property prices.

MacronvFrugals

schmittel wrote: »

I doubt there is anything untoward about the Ministers investments but this really does not look good under the circumstances.

Are his days numbered already?

At the governments internal meeting Thursday the housing Minister spoke of “legacy issues” essentially implicating FG policies as to why we’re in this mess, looking at today’s Mail on Sunday it appears FG are now going on the attack. Oh dear!


https://ibb.co/mhmgZHf

MacronvFrugals

Today’s SBP


Property funds outbid housing bodies by ‘up to €80k per home’


With yesterday’s headlines of funds spending 52 million per week buying property in Ireland one has to wonder how long this is sustainable?


https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/property-funds-outbid-housing-bodies-by-up-to-eur80k-per-home-cae507dc

awec

combat14 wrote: »

where are people going to get the money to pay for these never ending increases in prices?

time for a round of massive pay rise requests from workers and their unions

ultimately this will collapse our economy

It's not that people will need to suddenly find an extra 30%, more that people will just be buying less house for their money.

Instead of shopping for a big 4 bed, they find they can only afford a small 4 bed for their money now (just a made up example).

salonfire

Ireland is in an ideological trap within itself. We have the state robbing us blind with taxes and delivering under performing services and overpaid public servants. The same state is further robbing people by buying up property all around.


But the mention of a institutional fund buying an estate has sparked an explosion on anger and outrage this week. Where was this anger when it was state that was buying up available properties?

flexcon

awec wrote: »

It's not that people will need to suddenly find an extra 30%, more that people will just be buying less house for their money.

Instead of shopping for a big 4 bed, they find they can only afford a small 4 bed for their money now (just a made up example).

Nail on the head

Just put our deposit down on a new build 4 bedroom detached for 370,000 at 128sqm. Initially we had our name down for a bigger 144sqm in the same build but as of last week that hit 410,000 up from 380,00 last year.

So we decided to stick to budget rather than push higher again - even though we could “stretch” to it - we are going safer road and protecting us Incase of inflation and higher rates

Avant fixed rate for 7 years. 2.55 I think
Still feel I’m buying at a peak but at least I don’t feel like I’m on the edge of been torn apart in a few years.

Historic low interest rate for 7 years
82% LTV and 2.9 times our salary.

MacronvFrugals

Who can blame them in fairness with that type of yield…


Real estate firm collecting nearly $1,000 more in average rent here than in United States

Kennedy Wilson, which has 2,067 rental units in Ireland, plans to build more than 4,000 more here up to 2024

New filings published by the US real estate firm, which has 2,067 rental units in Ireland, show the average monthly rent in its Irish residential portfolio is now $2,525 (€2,075) per unit. This is significantly ahead of its average in the US, where it collects $1,598 per unit each month

.


https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/real-estate-firm-collecting-nearly-1000-more-in-average-rent-here-than-in-united-states-6d8fc786

I've said this elsewhere, but I don't really grasp the conversation on this topic (on the radio at least) always seemingly turning to social housing. Social housing is built-in to new estates. A guaranteed 10% (20% in future) are social houses. Then the other social housing bodies (McVerry, Housing Agency etc.) buy up a load of the houses, also.

Those on social housing are (as usual in Ireland) being disproportionately taken care of in comparison to private purchasers. The Covid rules even prevented private estates from working, but allowed social housing to continue. In other words: Those on the social housing list are more important.

The government either need to stop fulfilling social housing for a year or so and put all those houses on the private market, or change the rules so that people who are working, earning a wage, but still can't get anywhere near a house, can apply and get a new social house.

Wanderer78

salonfire wrote: »

Ireland is in an ideological trap within itself. We have the state robbing us blind with taxes and delivering under performing services and overpaid public servants. The same state is further robbing people by buying up property all around.


But the mention of a institutional fund buying an estate has sparked an explosion on anger and outrage this week. Where was this anger when it was state that was buying up available properties?

yes it is an ideological trap, but not truly driven by the government, its ultimately driven by the fire sectors(finance, insurance and real estate), but is facilitated and encouraged by our government, but again, this cannot be discussed here

Sweet.Science

Deleted User wrote: »

I've said this elsewhere, but I don't really grasp the conversation on this topic (on the radio at least) always seemingly turning to social housing. Social housing is built-in to new estates. A guaranteed 10% (20% in future) are social houses. Then the other social housing bodies (McVerry, Housing Agency etc.) buy up a load of the houses, also.

Those on social housing are (as usual in Ireland) being disproportionately taken care of in comparison to private purchasers. The Covid rules even prevented private estates from working, but allowed social housing to continue. In other words: Those on the social housing list are more important.

The government either need to stop fulfilling social housing for a year or so and put all those houses on the private market, or change the rules so that people who are working, earning a wage, but still can't get anywhere near a house, can apply and get a new social house.

Yeah it's all so bizarre . Private buyers by ex council homes . Councils buy new builds

salonfire

Wanderer78 wrote: »

yes it is an ideological trap, but not truly driven by the government, its ultimately driven by the fire sectors(finance, insurance and real estate), but is facilitated and encouraged by our government, but again, this cannot be discussed here

Where was your objections when it was the State pricing young people out of their homes? You had plenty to say this week only because it was not the State doing the pricing out.

Wanderer78

salonfire wrote: »

Where was your objections when it was the State pricing young people out of their homes? You had plenty to say this week only because it was not the State doing the pricing out.

yup, this is so messed up now, any move we make is further exasperating outcomes, including state intervention

coolshannagh28

salonfire wrote: »

Ireland is in an ideological trap within itself. We have the state robbing us blind with taxes and delivering under performing services and overpaid public servants. The same state is further robbing people by buying up property all around.


But the mention of a institutional fund buying an estate has sparked an explosion on anger and outrage this week. Where was this anger when it was state that was buying up available properties?

The state has played an ideological 3 card trick , they have managed to reinflate house prices using tax incentives to investment funds and at the same time offshored the downside risk should things collapse .
We are known for this and face headwinds as globally there is a concerted effort to regularise taxation on corporations.

fliball123

Deleted User wrote: »

I've said this elsewhere, but I don't really grasp the conversation on this topic (on the radio at least) always seemingly turning to social housing. Social housing is built-in to new estates. A guaranteed 10% (20% in future) are social houses. Then the other social housing bodies (McVerry, Housing Agency etc.) buy up a load of the houses, also.

Those on social housing are (as usual in Ireland) being disproportionately taken care of in comparison to private purchasers. The Covid rules even prevented private estates from working, but allowed social housing to continue. In other words: Those on the social housing list are more important.

The government either need to stop fulfilling social housing for a year or so and put all those houses on the private market, or change the rules so that people who are working, earning a wage, but still can't get anywhere near a house, can apply and get a new social house.

What you outline is one way our many left leaning policies which have favored those who are the poorest. What is happening is the poor and disadvantaged are given advantages that working people dont get and for a long time now welfare has been competing with low paying jobs. You only have to look at supermarkets, fast food outlets and other low paying jobs here you can see a shift in the workforce from being Irish to foreign workers. Irish workers dont do cheap labour as they know the system is geared towards them. We need a system where a % of your tax is actually put by for the person paying it and cannot be used for anyone else. There should also be some way of stopping our government from borrowing in our name and being used to pay out to people who dont deserve it (not saying all on welfare dont deserve help, some do some dont)

It gets worse the more you earn before AIW over 50% of what you earn you have to pay back. Ireland has become a country that does not reward working or as Leo says those who get up in the morning. Its like if you are anyway successful in this country your wallet is a target for Poor, Public servants and the Rich who dont want to pay the bill when things go wrong.

The effect is that we now have a good % working who are worse off than some who are not working and that should never be the case in a functioning employment market.

hmmm

Deleted User wrote: »

I've said this elsewhere, but I don't really grasp the conversation on this topic (on the radio at least) always seemingly turning to social housing. Social housing is built-in to new estates. A guaranteed 10% (20% in future) are social houses. Then the other social housing bodies (McVerry, Housing Agency etc.) buy up a load of the houses, also.

I can't get my head around the social housing bodies competing on the market with private purchasers.

Private purchasers are paying tax, which is then being lavished on these bodies who are competing for property with the people paying the tax. It seems designed to funnel taxpayers funds from workers into the hands of property owners.

And if this is happening under a FG/FF government, what happens in a hard-left government?

RichardAnd

hmmm wrote: »

And if this is happening under a FG/FF government, what happens in a hard-left government?

Most likely, exactly the same thing.

Ursabear

If I read it correctly Google are going to allow employees to choose for themselves whichever city in the world, that Google has a presence in, to work from. Is this correct? If so and if other MNCs follow suit I wonder what the effect on the accomodation market here will be.

fliball123

fliball123 wrote: »

What you outline is one way our many left leaning policies which have favored those who are the poorest. What is happening is the poor and disadvantaged are given advantages that working people dont get and for a long time now welfare has been competing with low paying jobs. You only have to look at supermarkets, fast food outlets and other low paying jobs here you can see a shift in the workforce from being Irish to foreign workers. Irish workers dont do cheap labour as they know the system is geared towards them. We need a system where a % of your tax is actually put by for the person paying it and cannot be used for anyone else. There should also be some way of stopping our government from borrowing in our name and being used to pay out to people who dont deserve it (not saying all on welfare dont deserve help, some do some dont)

It gets worse the more you earn before AIW over 50% of what you earn you have to pay back. Ireland has become a country that does not reward working or as Leo says those who get up in the morning. Its like if you are anyway successful in this country your wallet is a target for Poor, Public servants and the Rich who dont want to pay the bill when things go wrong.

The effect is that we now have a good % working who are worse off than some who are not working and that should never be the case in a functioning employment market.

I fight my war against the system and as far I see I am wining.
The Rule is simple Dont spend if you dont earn !
If your takeway brought meal price 50 cents up simply stop buy it
If you cant buy mobile phone for your 2 days earnings simply dont buy it !
I cant listen cryers who craying about hard life telling about how hard life is and keep brand new Iphone for 800 euros which they bought taking loan
If you cant afford it simply keep money in pockets ! And believe me even working for minimal wage you will always have coin in your pocket !
The problem of Ireland is Public Overspending ! Not the debt of the country !
Why rich has to pay for those who cant spend money properly ?

Once everybody will live that life style the property prices also will be normal !
And government will not have borrow money to save banks because somebody cant pay mortgage because he spent more than he earn !
The problem is You ! Not the government,not the bank,not the rich ! You ! Who cant manage his finances

Reins

https://twitter.com/TodayFM/status/1390588715077038081?s=19

Dr Rory Hearne laying it bare.

Ursabear

Ursabear wrote: »

If I read it correctly Google are going to allow employees to choose for themselves whichever city in the world, that Google has a presence in, to work from. Is this correct? If so and if other MNCs follow suit I wonder what the effect on the accomodation market here will be.

No. Exactly the opposite. Told them to get their asses back from out foreign.

Hubertj

Ursabear wrote: »

If I read it correctly Google are going to allow employees to choose for themselves whichever city in the world, that Google has a presence in, to work from. Is this correct? If so and if other MNCs follow suit I wonder what the effect on the accomodation market here will be.

That’s not my understanding of their policy. They are allowing a % of workers (20%ish I think) wfh permanently depending on function etc but that means wfh in Ireland. However given that many projects are carried out by teams across multiple sites perhaps there is flexibility for geographic mobility also.

hometruths

Ursabear wrote: »

If I read it correctly Google are going to allow employees to choose for themselves whichever city in the world, that Google has a presence in, to work from. Is this correct? If so and if other MNCs follow suit I wonder what the effect on the accomodation market here will be.

I think the WFH decisions of the SMEs rather than the MNCs will be far more significant.

It will be insurance brokers moving to Laois etc that will make a difference.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

That’s not my understanding of their policy. They are allowing a % of workers (20%ish I think) wfh permanently depending on function etc but that means wfh in Ireland. However given that many projects are carried out by teams across multiple sites perhaps there is flexibility for geographic mobility also.

Part of their tax arrangements requires maintaining a certain number of jobs in Ireland so I'd say whilst international mobility might be possible in theory it's unlikely to materialise in practice.

Villa05

coolshannagh28 wrote:

The state has played an ideological 3 card trick , they have managed to reinflate house prices using tax incentives to investment funds and at the same time offshored the downside risk should things collapse . We are known for this and face headwinds as globally there is a concerted effort to regularise taxation on corporations.

We will be very very lucky if the downside is offshored. These investment funds are short term and they will be offloading these homes at considerable untaxed profit
By soaking up supply they are increasing the pent up demand. They lobby for inflation policies like shard equity and the start selling back into the desperate pent up demand

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Part of their tax arrangements requires maintaining a certain number of jobs in Ireland so I'd say whilst international mobility might be possible in theory it's unlikely to materialise in practice.

Don’t forget the IP.... if the IP is actually developed here!! Imagine that.

Sierra Oscar

Ursabear wrote: »

If I read it correctly Google are going to allow employees to choose for themselves whichever city in the world, that Google has a presence in, to work from. Is this correct? If so and if other MNCs follow suit I wonder what the effect on the accomodation market here will be.

Not the case whatsoever. In fact, Sundar Pichai has specifically stated that employees will be back in the office by the end of the year and has explicitly ruled out permanent work from home arrangements for the bulk of the workforce.

schmittel wrote: »

It will be insurance brokers moving to Laois etc that will make a difference.

Honestly though, who wants to move to Laois? :P

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

What you outline is one way our many left leaning policies which have favored those who are the poorest. What is happening is the poor and disadvantaged are given advantages that working people dont get and for a long time now welfare has been competing with low paying jobs. You only have to look at supermarkets, fast food outlets and other low paying jobs here you can see a shift in the workforce from being Irish to foreign workers. Irish workers dont do cheap labour as they know the system is geared towards them. We need a system where a % of your tax is actually put by for the person paying it and cannot be used for anyone else. There should also be some way of stopping our government from borrowing in our name and being used to pay out to people who dont deserve it (not saying all on welfare dont deserve help, some do some dont)

If we had common sense policies

We would build housing on state land and restore the supply demand imbalance. Current policy ensures taxpayers pay more tax, rent, mortgages. Employers are under pressure to pay more wages thus reducing competitiveness

We had the same issue with medicine not so long ago with the state paying maximum price for branded medicine with cheaper substitutes discouraged to facilitate vested interests

After the last crash I do remember large queue's forming for McDonald s jobs
When we are close to full employment it might be popular soundbite but I don't think it is those at the bottom that responsible for the countries ills

hometruths

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Honestly though, who wants to move to Laois? :P

Oddly enough, me: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-abbey-leix-estate-abbeyleix-laois/4345736

I'd have bought it by now, only my wife prefers Wicklow... :D

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Don’t forget the IP.... if the IP is actually developed here!! Imagine that.

Speaking of IP... I was thinking about this the other day in the context of the furore about the REITs tax affairs.

The IP tax scheme - the 'Green Jersey' - is very clever in that it is a win win for both our Revenue and the MNCs.

As part of the arrangement, companies who wish to avail of the scheme have to present a business plan making a case for why Ireland should accept their IP. On the face of it this requirement is a mechanism to stop brass plate companies - i.e Ireland is saying, hang on we're checking that these companies are actually carrying out business in the state.

The reality is the business plan is just a commitment to provide X numbers of jobs in the state, usually with salaries linked to turnover.

Very clever. Win-win. (except for the fact it has reduced our fair share of EU covid bail out, but in fairness you cannot blame them for not forseeing a pandemic.)

My point re REITs is our corporate tax structures have shown us time and again that we have no shortage of clever policy wonks able to design tax laws to the country's benefit.

Why on earth have these guys not been rolled out to sort out the REITs and develop a win win scheme?

We keep being told tinkering with the existing tax arrangements of REITs is complicated, but if we can manage to structure a tax regime to our benefit for the biggest global companies, surely taxing a few institutional landlords with physical assets in the state is not beyond our capabilities?

Mic 1972

Ursabear wrote: »

If I read it correctly Google are going to allow employees to choose for themselves whichever city in the world, that Google has a presence in, to work from. Is this correct? If so and if other MNCs follow suit I wonder what the effect on the accomodation market here will be.

that's not even allowed from a legal standpoint
you have to be resident in the country you work from, at least 6 months + 1 day per year