2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

This is a very good article, which proposes viable solutions and isn’t just a rant about what is wrong. I can definitely agree with the points around planning regs etc for Georgian buildings having lived in a few over the years. So much potential north and south city centre

Amazing how solutions are much more palatable when national news media propose them rather than props and schmittel, shame they don't have a pr budget or lobbying powers

PropQueries

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Land is more expensive in Dublin than Tipperary. labour is more expensive in Dublin. Access to sites is generally more difficult requiring more labour. Sites generally need more security in Dublin. It is far easier to build where vehicles of whatever size can come and turn about easily than situations in urban areas where traffic has to be stopped and vehicles can't turn. Anything which is awkward adds to the time and labour costs.

So, how did Sisk Living manage to design and build a-rated homes for South Dublin county council for c. €180k each back in 2018?

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

And who owns or controls most of the large land banks in and around Dublin? I would guess (and, it's only a guess) that it's primarily the funds and the local councils/state.

And, Cairn Homes stated last year that the average cost of many of their sites was c. €15k so it's not land/site costs that are the problem IMO

You asked about developers, where developers provided with free land to build those houses for 450K houses? I don't think so.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

So, how did Sisk Living manage to design and build a-rated homes for South Dublin county council for c. €180k each back in 2018?

It's not 2018 anymore

Claw Hammer

PropQueries wrote: »

So, how did Sisk Living manage to design and build a-rated homes for South Dublin county council for c. €180k each back in 2018?

Who paid for the land?

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

You asked about developers, where developers provided with free land to build those houses for 450K houses? I don't think so.

So, let's remove that Cairn Homes stated that they did purchase many of their sites for c €15k. What's the current "market price" for a site with planning for a semi-detached house in Dublin? What's the current "market price" for a site with planning for a semi-detached house in Co. Tipperary?

Does it really account for most of that €225k cost difference between building and selling a house in Tipperary compared to Dublin?

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

So, let's remove that Cairn Homes stated that they did purchase many of their sites for c €15k. What's the current "market price" for a site with planning for a semi-detached house in Dublin? What's the current "market price" for a site with planning for a semi-detached house in Co. Tipperary?

Does it really account for most of that €225k cost difference between building and selling a house in Tipperary compared to Dublin?

I don't believe you would find a site for 15K in Dublin.
The site for semi-D in Dublin City could vary greatly, from around ~80K to ~500K.
I don't know about Tippery, but I'm confident, it's many times cheaper than in Dublin.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Wouldn't cost the taxpayer anything. I believe (and it's only my belief) that the funds own many of these buildings in the city centre (Dublin, Limerick, Cork, Galway and many other small towns around the country).

Slap a 10% derelict property tax (like Washington D.C.) on them and see how imaginative they would get in bringing them to market.

I would be of the belief that many have already or are in the process of being refurbished and many will be entering supply in the very near future. If I'm right that the funds do control many of these type of properties around Ireland, they can see which way the wind is blowing and will be looking to exit very shortly IMO

In relation to the cost of building a house. Why does the proposed affordable housing bill believe that developers in Co. Tipperary can build and sell new build a-rated homes for €225k, but in Dublin they need to sell them for c. €450k to make a profit?

Cairn Homes average selling price per unit in 2020 was c. €350k and Glenveagh's was less (if I'm remembering correctly), so the SCSI cost of building reports are nonsense and are meaningless for bigger developers who have massive economies of scale IMO. They've being spouting similar figures for the past several years and then Sisk Living comes along and designs and builds a-rated houses for South Dublin county council for c. €180k each back in 2018.

All houses and apartments are still what they were in previous decades. They're 4 walls and a roof and nothing has really changed outside the optics of additional USB ports, relatively cheap solar panels, a bit of additional insulation etc. etc. IMO

Those Sisk numbers you like so much - they wouldn't be because they don't included the cost of the land, by any chance? What do you imagine they had to pay the county council in terms of development fees and such? You don't suppose it was a big fat zero, by any chance?

Thus Builders as opposed to developers will deliver homes on state owned land achieving savings of over €100k per unit when compared to the price of purchasing similar units on the open market in areas such as this.

https://www.irishbuildingmagazine.ie/2018/11/01/sisk-living-delivers-90-social-houses-in-tallaght/

I have no idea why legislation drafted by a bunch of Irish civil servants believes you can build and deliver an A-rated home in Tipp for €255 K. Are there actual examples of such houses being built put to market at that price?

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

I don't believe you would find a site for 15K in Dublin.
The site for semi-D in Dublin City could vary greatly, from around ~80K to ~500K.
I don't know about Tippery, but I'm confident, it's many times cheaper than in Dublin.

And who controls the "market price" of sites? It's primarily either the council/state/funds IMO. The state can bring the cost of sites in Dublin back to Co. Tipperary prices if they truly wished through a combination of bringing their own vast landbanks into play and through either taxation/regulation measures in relation to the fund owned sites.

There is absolutely no shortage of land to build on in Dublin IMO.

The short-term magic bullets really are there through managing the inefficient use of existing properties and the land banks/sites in the cities and towns IMO.

If this Government doesn't do it, either the next Government will do it or the funds may do it much sooner should they decide to cash in and exit IMO

cnocbui

Hah! 1 percent of rateable properties outside of Dublin are owned by the catholic church. I wonder how much of Dublin they own? https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-20171915.html

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Amazing how solutions are much more palatable when national news media propose them rather than props and schmittel, shame they don't have a pr budget or lobbying powers

That’s an excellent contribution to the discussion. Thank you.

I made a number of reference led to the planning issues which prevent the renovation of many Georgian houses last year.

Do I not get any praise either? Or is that because I don’t agree with some of your ideas?

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

And who controls the "market price" of sites? It's primarily either the council/state/funds IMO. The state can bring the cost of sites in Dublin back to Co. Tipperary prices if they truly wished through a combination of bringing their own vast landbanks into play and through either taxation/regulation measures in relation to the fund owned sites.

There is absolutely no shortage of land to build on in Dublin IMO.

The short-term magic bullets really are there through managing the inefficient use of existing properties and the land banks/sites in the cities and towns IMO.

If this Government doesn't do it, either the next Government will do it or the funds may do it much sooner should they decide to cash in and exit IMO

Well at least you got your answer to the first question why its more expensive for Developer to build in Dublin.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

And who controls the "market price" of sites? It's primarily either the council/state/funds IMO. The state can bring the cost of sites in Dublin back to Co. Tipperary prices if they truly wished through a combination of bringing their own vast landbanks into play and through either taxation/regulation measures in relation to the fund owned sites.

There is absolutely no shortage of land to build on in Dublin IMO.

The short-term magic bullets really are there through managing the inefficient use of existing properties and the land banks/sites in the cities and towns IMO.

If this Government doesn't do it, either the next Government will do it or the funds may do it much sooner should they decide to cash in and exit IMO

Nobody controls it.

The market price is determined by the market. Land is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it.

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

All houses and apartments are still what they were in previous decades. They're 4 walls and a roof and nothing has really changed outside the optics of additional USB ports, relatively cheap solar panels, a bit of additional insulation etc. etc. IMO

Houses and Apartments are not similar to decades ago. First off since the last boom and it's fallout remember the apartment block build by the SF developer and it's ramifications. Engineering certification as well as Electrical and plumbing certification has added 15-20k to the price of a new build. Insulation to A rating levels has probably added 20k to house prices since the early 90's most of the cost added in the last 5-10 yeats

Go back a decade before that and houses were mostly build or were available anyway at builders finish stage, finished houses now are costing another 15-20k. Addition of downstairs toilet added 2-4k to house prices as well.

A decade previous to that the on suite came in for the master bedroom about 3-5k added to cost again.

All in all all these changes have added 60-80k to houses costs. With Dublin labour prices it probably nearer 100 k

awec

Houses are still just 4 walls and a roof in the same way that a 2021 car is the same as the one Henry Ford built, a few doors and 4 wheels.

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

So, let's remove that Cairn Homes stated that they did purchase many of their sites for c €15k. What's the current "market price" for a site with planning for a semi-detached house in Dublin? What's the current "market price" for a site with planning for a semi-detached house in Co. Tipperary?

Does it really account for most of that €225k cost difference between building and selling a house in Tipperary compared to Dublin?

I day in Dublin site costs would be in the region of 100k.+. In one of the bigger urban centres in Tipp such as Nenagh, Thurles or Clonmel you are probably looking a 40-50k, however if you go to satellite villages outside these urban centers it probably sub 30 k. All of these before development levies or services supplied. You will supply services in Tipp at 50-60% of Dublin's costs

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Houses and Apartments are not similar to decades ago. First off since the last boom and it's fallout remember the apartment block build by the SF developer and it's ramifications. Engineering certification as well as Electrical and plumbing certification has added 15-20k to the price of a new build. Insulation to A rating levels has probably added 20k to house prices since the early 90's most of the cost added in the last 5-10 yeats

Go back a decade before that and houses were mostly build or were available anyway at builders finish stage, finished houses now are costing another 15-20k. Addition of downstairs toilet added 2-4k to house prices as well.

A decade previous to that the on suite came in for the master bedroom about 3-5k added to cost again.

All in all all these changes have added 60-80k to houses costs. With Dublin labour prices it probably nearer 100 k

If that's true, how are the developers in Co. Tipperary going to be able to buy a site, pay levies etc. build the homes and make a profit by selling them for c. €225k each as per the proposed affordable housing bill?

Robson99

It doesn't make a bit of difference if every site in the country was for nothing.
We have neither the tradesmen or material supply in the country to build any more than we are currently doing. So there is no solution to the problem.
Those thinking that a SF govt will solve the problem would want to be careful what they wish for as there could be less developers and tradesmen to carry out the work.
Major shortage of professionals and trades in the UK. Wouldn't take much for the younger ones to go back there working where they could earn 30 -50k a year more

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

If that's true, how are the developers in Co. Tipperary going to be able to buy a site, pay levies etc. build the homes and make a profit by selling them for c. €225k each as per the proposed affordable housing bill?

At a rough guess, I'd say they aren't. Putting forth some aspirational ideal generated by a civil servant as a banchmark for market reality, might possibly be unrealistic.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

Would it matter if rent is set at % of income and do something similar for those who wish to buy. For those who buy the land stays in state ownership

Need an alternative to the private market, because its clearly not working

All supports removed for rich and poor. Let both the rental and sales market reach where they are going to go. Tax rentals on potential income instead of actual income that way if a REIT leaves a rental which should be bringing in 2k idle they still have to pay. It will force the rental market to go where it should be naturally.
Same goes with property price remove all state support (It will be hard but those of us paying tax and getting up in the morning are finding it hard with the punitive nature our income tax system) and see where it ends up then they can start again and do things like those not wanting to work can move down the country into , tough sh1t if your not beside mammy anymore. Workers need to be housed as a priority.

cnocbui

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I day in Dublin site costs would be in the region of 100k.+. In one of the bigger urban centres in Tipp such as Nenagh, Thurles or Clonmel you are probably looking a 40-50k, however if you go to satellite villages outside these urban centers it probably sub 30 k. All of these before development levies or services supplied. You will supply services in Tipp at 50-60% of Dublin's costs

This is a very dangerous path you are treading; it leads to accusations of wanting to snatch avocado toast from the mouths of babes and highly skilled nurses.

Marius34

cnocbui wrote: »

At a rough guess, I'd say they aren't. Putting forth some aspirational ideal generated by a civil servant as a banchmark for market reality, might possibly be unrealistic.

Maybe those houses are smaller 80-90sqm. with cheaper internal materials, than I see 225K as a feasible price, where land is cheaper.

mcsean2163

awec wrote: »

Houses are still just 4 walls and a roof in the same way that a 2021 car is the same as the one Henry Ford built, a few doors and 4 wheels.

In 1908 the Model T cost $850, or around $21,340 in 2012 dollars when adjusted for inflation.

So a budget car costs less in the US as it was in 1908. Imagine that, being efficient and keeping costs down but delivering a better product.

https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/g26522634/best-cars-under-20000/

cnocbui

This country never ceases to amaze me as to how retarded and dysfunctional it is!

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https://scsi.ie/consumer/build/housing-development-calculator/



And in 2021, they want you to start your query in square feet :rolleyes:

Hubertj

cnocbui wrote: »

Those Sisk numbers you like so much - they wouldn't be because they don't included the cost of the land, by any chance? What do you imagine they had to pay the county council in terms of development fees and such? You don't suppose it was a big fat zero, by any chance?

https://www.irishbuildingmagazine.ie/2018/11/01/sisk-living-delivers-90-social-houses-in-tallaght/

I have no idea why legislation drafted by a bunch of Irish civil servants believes you can build and deliver an A-rated home in Tipp for €255 K. Are there actual examples of such houses being built put to market at that price?

The article you quote states

“ Recognising the urgent need for these houses for South Dublin County Council and in the context of the current chronic need for housing in Tallaght, Sisk Living implemented an aggressive construction programme for this development by utilising off-site fabrication, the selection of quality sub-contractors with the right resources and, importantly, the correct sequencing of the works which included a rising wall system which can be built quicker than blockwork and irrespective of poor weather conditions.”

Can anyone that has actual knowledge (not a spoofer) explain difference and efficiencies of “rising wall” vs “blockwork”?

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

If that's true, how are the developers in Co. Tipperary going to be able to buy a site, pay levies etc. build the homes and make a profit by selling them for c. €225k each as per the proposed affordable housing bill?

225k would probably be tight as things are changing fast and not for the better. I have two rental properties bother about 20 miles from Limerick. If I get an tradesperson on the Limerick side of them to get work done he is 20-30% more expensive than if I get a tradesperson 10 miles on the other side of them. However labour prices are rising rapidly and exponentially mainly due to extension work on houses.

However the small Tipp builder might buy an acre site in Tipperary town for 350k, he may even have bought it 5-6 years ago for half that. He applies for planning permission and gets it for 12 houses 6 town houses and 6 semi-D's. I think Tipp development levies are in the 10-15k range. His engineer and planning costs to get planning is probably 20-30% of Dublin site costs. He probable have planning got for 500-1k/house.

He will have no huge finance costs at this stage. Site is still costing him sub 30k/ site. He will more than likely do the ground work himself maybe with his own machinery. He needs no security on site except the obligatory wire mesh panels that he has at home. He will bring have 3-4 block layers who he may hire direct rather than a subcontractor supplying blocklayers and taking a margin. He will build one set of the semid's and a block of three townhouses. If he has a good reputation 50% of material will be on credit. Total borrowing at this stage would be in the 500k-1 million mark probably a lot nearer 500k than 1 million. He will sell what is build and finish the rest of the site probably presold.

His labour costs will be 50-60% of Dublin costs. As the overall project is small he will finance it himself.
It's trying to comparing apples and oranges. It's easy to take a bit out of an apple skin and all try it with an Orange and it's a different matter

Bass Reeves

Hubertj wrote: »

The article you quote states

“ Recognising the urgent need for these houses for South Dublin County Council and in the context of the current chronic need for housing in Tallaght, Sisk Living implemented an aggressive construction programme for this development by utilising off-site fabrication, the selection of quality sub-contractors with the right resources and, importantly, the correct sequencing of the works which included a rising wall system which can be built quicker than blockwork and irrespective of poor weather conditions.”

Can anyone that has actual knowledge (not a spoofer) explain difference and efficiencies of “rising wall” vs “blockwork”?

Rising walls are common now. I think internal construction is timber frame. Then I think to achieve A rating a thick layer of insulation is attached to the timber frame. Then a single shuttering system is used to pour a mass concrete layer outside the insulation. It is done in stages so referred to as a rising wall

MacronvFrugals

Is it not significantly better value for the council just to buy these?



Dublin social housing portfolio guiding at €21m

The prospect of immediate rental income copper-fastened by the security of a 25-year government lease is expected to see strong interest from investors in the sale of Project Haven, a portfolio of approximately 60 social housing units across Dublin’s north, south and west suburbs.

The portfolio is producing a guaranteed gross rental income of €952,000 per annum and is being offered to the market by agent CBRE on behalf of Allied Irish Property and the Topland Group at a guide price of €21 million.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/dublin-social-housing-portfolio-guiding-at-21m-1.4549153

JimmyVik

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Is it not significantly better value for the council just to buy these?

Dublin social housing portfolio guiding at €21m

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/dublin-social-housing-portfolio-guiding-at-21m-1.4549153

They cant tap the tax payer for the money all in one go. Easier to bleed them for years instead.

Bass Reeves

Hubertj wrote: »

The article you quote states

“ Recognising the urgent need for these houses for South Dublin County Council and in the context of the current chronic need for housing in Tallaght, Sisk Living implemented an aggressive construction programme for this development by utilising off-site fabrication, the selection of quality sub-contractors with the right resources and, importantly, the correct sequencing of the works which included a rising wall system which can be built quicker than blockwork and irrespective of poor weather conditions.”

Can anyone that has actual knowledge (not a spoofer) explain difference and efficiencies of “rising wall” vs “blockwork”?

I forgot about the second part of your question efficiencies. It's harder to get what are called wet trades nowadays. This replaced the need for blocklayers. And maybe plasterers as a wet dash can be applied to the mass concrete wall with out preplastering. If you wanted to complete a large development and had did not have to finance or sell it in stages you could really speed up the build process. Itight also allow you to cut costs by making your own ready mix on site on a bigger job.

It would have little savings outside of Dublin up to now even though I think a rural site near me used it for an 8-10 unit site