2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

MacronvFrugals

Cal4567 wrote: »

Without going around in circles but that's my experience. While there's been increased interest in Ireland over the last 2/3 years, the first wave of investors have been here since 2012/13, with a lot of employment for recently left NAMA employees. Frank Connolly's NAMA book describes it all much better than I could ever do.

As time goes on i'm always reminded of the quote from Ian Kehoe's documentary 'The Great Irish Sell Off' - "It will be looked on as a period when Ireland panicked"

The mission creep into the burbs was always going to occur, an IT headline from last weekend -

Investment funds are becoming bigger property players in Dublin suburbs


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/investment-funds-are-becoming-bigger-property-players-in-dublin-suburbs-1.4558775

Murph85

the quicker solutions for them, include getting fair deal properties rented out, not the current penal level of taxation, that leaves them idle. There is another scheme, where normal houses, were converted into two properties, the elderly person or persons, get to stay in their home and you locate people in established areas and obviously construction time and cost is way cheaper than a new build...

If they wont do anything meaningful on the LPT and they wont, then perhaps incentivise the elderly to downsize, by paying out a few thousands, to cover the cost of the move, solicitor, stamp duty etc.

Allow apartments in the garden of properties, has been discussed a few years ago, it may surface again. These homes can be put up start to finish, in about one week.

Longer term, they are going to have to majorly start getting 15-16 year olds, into trades. The current farce of the leaving cert, being the be all and end all is a joke. Get them in at 15-16, pay them decent money when 18 and apprentices etc.

I mean the labour shortage is so ridiculous in construction, that you either use what you have, which is far less labour intensive, or you start getting thousand of construction workers back into dublin from abroad, where do they get housed though?

I believe in berlin in the 90's and possibly today, the workers and many were Irish, lived on the site, in large portacabins, that could be moved onto the next site, when that project was complete...

Murph85

hmmm wrote: »

The council are looking at cash flow, not value. It's spend 21 million now or 1 million. Who-ever is around in 10 years time can worry about value.

absolutely true, but fro a government position, open cheque books, given where we are skyrocketing to financially, isn't going to be an option for too much longer, I would have thought...

Murph85

Murph85 wrote: »

the quicker solutions for them, include getting fair deal properties rented out, not the current penal level of taxation, that leaves them idle. There is another scheme, where normal houses, were converted into two properties, the elderly person or persons, get to stay in their home and you locate people in established areas and obviously construction time and cost is way cheaper than a new build...

If they wont do anything meaningful on the LPT and they wont, then perhaps incentivise the elderly to downsize, by paying out a few thousands, to cover the cost of the move, solicitor, stamp duty etc.

Allow apartments in the garden of properties, has been discussed a few years ago, it may surface again. These homes can be put up start to finish, in about one week.

Longer term, they are going to have to majorly start getting 15-16 year olds, into trades. The current farce of the leaving cert, being the be all and end all is a joke. Get them in at 15-16, pay them decent money when 18 and apprentices etc.

I mean the labour shortage is so ridiculous in construction, that you either use what you have, which is far less labour intensive, or you start getting thousand of construction workers back into dublin from abroad, where do they get housed though?

I believe in berlin in the 90's and possibly today, the workers and many were Irish, lived on the site, in large portacabins, that could be moved onto the next site, when that project was complete...

Lets start build Shanghai
The bedroom as extension beside shed
Couple more floors on top of it ant then panoramic area on top of the shed roof.
You can buy couple holidays homes caravans and put one on top of another ! Budget option !
I am pretty sure many neighbours will happy enjoy your China town life style.
People should not live that way ! In normal country with normal economy every hard working person must afford buy house
If he cant that mean property is in buble

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

GeoDirectory do not count properties that they consider are for sale or for rent. Hence the difference with the census.

They reduced their vacancy numbers by almost 20k for sale and 20k for rent at a time when there was less than 5k for rent on the market.

This is not my interpretation- this is explained in the methodology which I have showed you many times.

Nonsense. That's your misinformation on GeoDirectory report.

enricoh

cnocbui wrote: »

I have a 128 year old cut stone 'house' in the distant reaches of Connemara. I had someone recently interested who took his architect to view it, who estimated €500,000 to renovate.

I have no doubt that was for something that would end up gracing the front cover of an architecture magazine and would be put up for an award. I think my gut and caution was right. Even at a relatively paltry €300,000, I wouldn't be up for such a financial risk. Rental prospects would be dire, due to remoteness.

My sister bought a holiday house along the Shannon a few years ago for sod all. She got a local oul lad that was on sites in England for donkeys years and retired keeping a few cattle. He plodded away at it when suited and transformed it.

If it was on the east coast it'd have easily cost 100k extra with a builder.
Only problem now is everyone wants to use it after getting spruced up!

hometruths

Rather than dragging the thread into another tit for tat with Marius can anybody else help me to understand the question of whether GeoDirectory include properties that are empty being for sale and for rent in their vacancy figures:

The difference of some 87k vacant properties between census and GeoDirectory and methodology is explained thus:

Drilling down further, however, it is possible to explain some of this substantial difference. The CSO has provided some data on the reasons why dwellings were vacant at the time of the Census of Population for a small sample of vacant buildings (i.e. around 57,000 dwellings or close to one-third of the total). This one-third of the vacant stock includes dwellings classified as for sale (10,948 dwellings), for rent (10,350), owner in nursing home (4,165), renovation work underway (3,678), owner in hospital (1,469), and owner with relatives (847).
Some of these categories could be considered to be dwellings which might not normally be classified as vacant in the context of long term vacancy, but which would represent more of a transitional or temporary vacancy rate, i.e. properties waiting to be sold or rented out. In the aggregate they represent a total of around 31,500 properties out of the 57,000, or 55%. This implies that 25,500 of this total would be deemed to be vacant. As these explanations were only provided for one-third of vacant dwellings (if it is assumed that 55% of the remaining two-thirds were similarly classified, leaving 45% as representing the true vacant total), this would reduce the CSO figure for the number of vacant dwellings considerably to around 83,000, which would be closer to the GeoDirectory figure of 96,243

I read the above as GeoDirectory are saying the difference between them and the census is that Geo do not count all the categories of vacancy that the census do, and those categories make up approx 55% and the remaining 45% is what GeoDirectory consider to be the true vacant total, and thus what they report.

Does anybody else other than Marius think i am misunderstanding the above? Is there another way to read it?

Or does anybody else agree with me and read it the same way as I do?

Any responses much appreciated, i am not trying to drag others into a petty squabble, I genuinely want to understand the figures, it might seem trivial but the reporting of vacancies is actually a very big deal in the context of a broken property market.

awec

My reading is that CSO has some info on roughly 33% of the vacancies they found that would suggest that 55% of this 33% is "transient vacancy".

Geodirectories are then extrapolating this out, assuming that the remaining 66% of vacancies would show the same trend, and then adjusting the CSO figure with this info to give a number that can be compared like for like with GeoD. In the end, they get pretty close.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

My reading is that CSO has some info on roughly 33% of the vacancies they found that would suggest that 55% of this 33% is "transient vacancy".

Geodirectories are then extrapolating this out, assuming that the remaining 66% of vacancies would show the same trend, and then adjusting the CSO figure with this info to give a number that can be compared like for like with GeoD. In the end, they get pretty close.

Thanks, and forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but just so I am clear, is your understanding thus that the like for like figure excludes the transient vacancies?

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Thanks, and forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but just so I am clear, is your understanding thus that the like for like figure excludes the transient vacancies?

I think so yea.

The paragraph is quite hard to decipher!

DataDude

DataDude wrote: »

No idea on what the appropriate price is. But this is a serious house...I guess ideally you wouldn't want a Semi-D at €4.5m, but I'd put up with it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dunmara-strand-road-killiney-county-dublin/4499807

EDIT- I know it wouldn't fit with the style, and probably not even allowed if it's a protected structure. But with a view like this it nearly seems like a bit of a shame that there aren't more expansive views of the sea from Kitchen/Living Room/Bedrooms.

I've been inside, lovely house.
Former home of Gerald Keane, you're attached to Dermot Desmond too!

hometruths

awec wrote: »

I think so yea.

The paragraph is quite hard to decipher!

And would you agree that the transient vacancies include vacancies that are for sale and for rent?

Reins

DataDude wrote: »

No idea on what the appropriate price is. But this is a serious house...I guess ideally you wouldn't want a Semi-D at €4.5m, but I'd put up with it.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/dunmara-strand-road-killiney-county-dublin/4499807

EDIT- I know it wouldn't fit with the style, and probably not even allowed if it's a protected structure. But with a view like this it nearly seems like a bit of a shame that there aren't more expansive views of the sea from Kitchen/Living Room/Bedrooms.

First thing I'd be doing is taking the sale off that agent.
4.5 mil property and agent can't be arsed to check the quality of some of the photo's :rolleyes:

awec

schmittel wrote: »

And would you agree that the transient vacancies include vacancies that are for sale and for rent?

Yes.

cnocbui

Reins wrote: »

First thing I'd be doing is taking the sale off that agent.
4.5 mil property and agent can't be arsed to check the quality of some of the photo's :rolleyes:

I'll bet the photos are fine - they look like they are displaying the thumbnail instead of the full res photo.

But yes, they should check. Possible a third party was tasked with a job and messed up.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Yes.

Me too.

Their methodology is clear:

GeoDirectory exclude "transitional" vacancies from their count.
They consider properties that are "For sale" or "for rent" as transitional vacancies.
Hence GeoDirectory do not count properties that are "for sale" or "for rent" as vacancies.

Yet every time I state this, quoting GeoDirectory's methodology, Marius accuses me of posting misinformation.

Yet weirdly he has thanked your posts saying Geo exclude transitional vacancies and that transitional vacancies include for sale and for rent!

Gets quite irritating after a while, because it derails a more serious discussion about the huge problem of vacancies.

Bass Reeves

cnocbui wrote: »

I have a 128 year old cut stone 'house' in the distant reaches of Connemara. I had someone recently interested who took his architect to view it, who estimated €500,000 to renovate.

I have no doubt that was for something that would end up gracing the front cover of an architecture magazine and would be put up for an award. I think my gut and caution was right. Even at a relatively paltry €300,000, I wouldn't be up for such a financial risk. Rental prospects would be dire, due to remoteness.

It all depends on what you are going doing with it. I knew I would not be selling it but renting it so it was a case of working with what you had. It must be a huge house to incur such cost is it a listed building. I pass this huge old house on an farm now and again. The farm owners have abandoned it and have build a bunglow to live in. I love to have a crack at renovating it.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Me too.

Their methodology is clear:

GeoDirectory exclude "transitional" vacancies from their count.
They consider properties that are "For sale" or "for rent" as transitional vacancies.
Hence GeoDirectory do not count properties that are "for sale" or "for rent" as vacancies.

Yet every time I state this, quoting GeoDirectory's methodology, Marius accuses me of posting misinformation.

Yet weirdly he has thanked your posts saying Geo exclude transitional vacancies and that transitional vacancies include for sale and for rent!

Gets quite irritating after a while, because it derails a more serious discussion about the huge problem of vacancies.

I thanked, because that's the same thing what I told you about the Census already. All the answers relates to Census. While you speak nonsense about GeoDirectory. Nor they speak about properties for sale in their methodology, nor about owners in hospital, etc.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I thanked, because that's the same thing what I told you about the Census already. All the answers relates to Census. While you speak nonsense about GeoDirectory. Nor they speak about properties for sale in their methodology, nor about owners in hospital, etc.

GeoDirectory do not count properties for sale or for rent as vacancies.

What part of that statement is nonsense?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

GeoDirectory do not count properties for sale or for rent as vacancies.

What part of that statement is nonsense?

Highlighted one, I told like 10 times already. Nowhere they say that they don't count it, nowhere they say that they collect such information about properties. It's all about Census, and estimates why there could be difference.
And I totally agree with what awec has responded to you.

Graham

Mod Note

as per previous mod note, take the (yet another) geodirectory debate to a separate thread.

Do not reply to this post.

hometruths

<SNIP>

PropQueries

Dr. Rory Hearne has a fairly long opinion piece in The Journal this evening. He seems very sceptical of any solutions the Government may bring in following the recent Maynooth estate fund issue.

Link to article in The Journal here: https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/housing-investment-5433241-May2021/

woejus

Reins wrote: »

First thing I'd be doing is taking the sale off that agent.
4.5 mil property and agent can't be arsed to check the quality of some of the photo's :rolleyes:

Grand gaff but some drawbacks - right on the beach (which is nice in Bridgehampton I suppose, but attracts scobes here), right beside the trainline.

It does have ONE helipad though, one fewer than the winning house of 2021 out in Howth.

Can imagine it is savage to be looking out during a storm!

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

And would you agree that the transient vacancies include vacancies that are for sale and for rent?

I think I also agree with what you are saying.

Amadan Dubh

PropQueries wrote: »

Dr. Rory Hearne has a fairly long opinion piece in The Journal this evening. He seems very sceptical of any solutions the Government may bring in following the recent Maynooth estate fund issue.

Link to article in The Journal here: https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/housing-investment-5433241-May2021/

Important too are the comments and the most liked comments below. Unanimous in support of the article.

RichardAnd

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Important too are the comments and the most liked comments below. Unanimous in support of the article.

The comments are even calling Varadkar "Varadkar" and not "Leo". That's something new from the Journal.ie.

For myself, I wrote to all five local TDs on this issue. Sean Haughey had this to say:

The Government has stated that it is opposed to this practice where there is no evidence of real additional supply and the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage and the Minister for Finance are currently considering additional measures to tackle this. The Cabinet has already agreed on increasing the Part V provision from 10% to 20% to include affordable purchase which will ensure that every development has an affordable section. This in itself will prevent so called cuckoo funds from snapping up entire developments.

In other words, nothing will be done.

Hubertj

<MoD SNIP>

You’ve lost me now but when looking at MyHome.ie and 12,642 for sale - would that also include multiple units in a new development? Or would 1 entry be for an entire development? Or are new builds separate? There is a new build tab in MyHome that has 332 properties.... is that 332 properties total or 332 developments so could be a multiple of 332?

Hubertj

woejus wrote: »

Grand gaff but some drawbacks - right on the beach (which is nice in Bridgehampton I suppose, but attracts scobes here), right beside the trainline.

It does have ONE helipad though, one fewer than the winning house of 2021 out in Howth.

Can imagine it is savage to be looking out during a storm!

Perhaps security posted on the turret with some form of legal anti scobe repellant such as a water cannon?

Reins

https://twitter.com/crazyhouseprice/status/1391785573417988101

More on the housing crisis.