2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Mad_maxx

PropQueries wrote: »

Dr. Rory Hearne has a fairly long opinion piece in The Journal this evening. He seems very sceptical of any solutions the Government may bring in following the recent Maynooth estate fund issue.

Link to article in The Journal here: https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/housing-investment-5433241-May2021/

that fella will never be happy until private property is completely outlawed

far left bluffer of the highest order

RichardAnd

Mad_maxx wrote: »

that fella will never be happy until private property is completely outlawed

far left bluffer of the highest order

He writes for Darwin's Waiting Room (aka, the Journal), of course he's a mad lefty.

However, this is a good example of how a broken clock can be right sometimes.

Mad_maxx

RichardAnd wrote: »

He writes for Darwin's Waiting Room (aka, the Journal), of course he's a mad lefty.

However, this is a good example of how a broken clock can be right sometimes.

any " economic manifesto" you get from PBP is written by him , he ran for them in the 2007 general election

that he has such a profile is a testament to the politics of the media in this country , marxist idiot

Amadan Dubh

Mad_maxx wrote: »

any " economic manifesto" you get from PBP is written by him , he ran for them in the 2007 general election

that he has such a profile is a testament to the politics of the media in this country , marxist idiot

His property market views are far from Marxist and an idiot he seems not, what is idiotic about his article?

Beigepaint

Reins wrote: »

https://twitter.com/crazyhouseprice/status/1391785573417988101

More on the housing crisis.

I was watching Claire Byrne and it twigged a conversation I had last week with an older guy - he’s mid 50s - at work. He has a windfall coming and he said he will give most of it to his daughter for a deposit.

Yerman from the crazy house prices insta page asked the contributor - an FG TD, I think - why are all of these measures aimed at FTBs, and not single people, people rightsizing, second time buyers etc?

He gave some waffly answer but it occurred to me that all of their new measures are targeting the children of their 55 to RIP age bracket demographic.

Second time buyers and downsizers are neither their demographic nor the children of their demographic (as they are likely to be older, consumed by the housing crisis and/or their parents are likely already RIP) - so flip them. Flip them to heck.

If the fella from my work gives his daughter a few quid and she uses the cash gift, the help to buy and the shared equity scheme she’ll be alright jack. What does that mean? Reciprocity in the form of votes.

Topgear on Dave

Of course its all about votes. The crisis only effects a very small number of people in comparison to the total population, its a part of why it is so hard to solve.

combat14

government now funding the vulture funds instead of local builders - what next !?

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/governmentfund-for-small-builders-now-helpingfinance-cuckoo-schemes-40411383.html

Amadan Dubh

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/stagnant-wages-and-expensive-housing-leave-young-people-in-ireland-worse-off-than-parents-1.4560760?mode=amp

Stagnant wages and expensive housing leave young people in Ireland worse off than parents

ESRI study suggests millennials first generation with lower living standards than before

A combination of stagnant wages and higher housing costs have left young workers in Ireland financially worse off than their parents, according to a study by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

The research found that earnings have flat-lined for young people entering the Irish labour market and that workers in their 20s are – in real terms – earning less than they did in the 1990s and 2000s.

It noted that there were 112,000 fewer 15-34 year olds in paid work in the final quarter of 2020 than a year earlier, compared to 93,000 fewer workers aged 35 and older.

Proportionally, employment was 14 per cent below its pre-pandemic level for those age 15-34, compared to just 6 per cent below for those in the age 35-plus category.

The study found there has been “widespread stagnation in earnings growth” since the 2008 financial crisis, with average earnings for those born in the 1980s no higher from age 25 to 35 than for those born in the 1970s.

In addition to poor prospects in the labour market, the report said a growing share of young adults are facing high housing costs, primarily because most are forced to rent and a greater share end up paying more than 30 per cent of their disposable income on housing.

“Policies that act to tackle the root causes of high rents will also disproportionately benefit younger adults who risk otherwise being left behind,” he said.

Again, another authoritative source written about in the media on the desperate state of the housing market, particularly for those in their 20s and 30s (currently the population under the age of 45 is 1.7 times higher than that over the age of 45 meaning that the majority of the population couple be said to be negatively affected by the housing market). This voting demographic of course (ie the one unhappy with the housing situation) will continue to grow.

It is quite depressing to note that the impact of the crash in 2008 has resulted in a whole generation being worse off financially than their parents. But until we see the end result of what is required in any policy to be specifically stated in any calls to fix the broken housing crisis - rents and house prices must be forced to drop substantially - no meaningful progress will be made. This has to be the stated end goal - force rents and prices to drop. Work back from there.

combat14

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/stagnant-wages-and-expensive-housing-leave-young-people-in-ireland-worse-off-than-parents-1.4560760?mode=amp



Again, another authoritative source written about in the media on the desperate state of the housing market, particularly for those in their 20s and 30s (currently the population under the age of 45 is 1.7 times higher than that over the age of 45 meaning that the majority of the population couple be said to be negatively affected by the housing market). This voting demographic of course (ie the one unhappy with the housing situation) will continue to grow.

It is quite depressing to note that the impact of the crash in 2008 has resulted in a whole generation being worse off financially than their parents. But until we see the end result of what is required in any policy to be specifically stated in any calls to fix the broken housing crisis - rents and house prices must be forced to drop substantially - no meaningful progress will be made. This has to be the stated end goal - force rents and prices to drop. Work back from there.

either build a mass of low cost houses - driving down rents and prices here - and generally the cost of living making the country ultimately more competitive in the long run

or else a massive transfer of wealth from the older generation will be required e.g. significant property taxes on multiple home owners or other wealth and meaningful tax measures

this will happen anyway as the afflicted voting demographic grows in size

Mad_maxx

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

His property market views are far from Marxist and an idiot he seems not, what is idiotic about his article?

He ran for PBP in the general election of 2007 , how could he not be Marxist?

Amadan Dubh

Mad_maxx wrote: »

He ran for PBP in the general election of 2007 , how could he not be Marxist?

I was a card carrying member of the communist party of Ireland back in 06 before becoming a card carrying member of FG in 08. What would that make me?

awec

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

I was a card carrying member of the communist party of Ireland back in 06 before becoming a card carrying member of FG in 08. What would that make me?

Confused.

Amadan Dubh

awec wrote: »

Confused.

Between 06-08 perhaps curious, confused, flexible. But it's still applicable to today's description of political beliefs?

MacronvFrugals

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

His property market views are far from Marxist and an idiot he seems not, what is idiotic about his article?

His views on the property market are Marxist only when viewed through an overton window that places centrism as selling the country to vulture funds and the ESRI saying things like "“Each successive generation are less likely than the last to own their own home at the same age"


From what i gather one of Hearne's worries is will his kids be able to afford housing in the future and judging by today's ESRI report he has every right to be worried!

cnocbui

Perhaps the government should disallow mortgage interest as a deduction against rental income and a 2 year hiatus in collecting CGT on rental properties offered for sale within the two years.

That should clear out some pesky private landlords and give the REITS a helping hand to absolute market dominance.

hmmm

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Of course its all about votes. The crisis only effects a very small number of people in comparison to the total population, its a part of why it is so hard to solve.

I think it's the other way around. The problem we have is people keep saying this is a simple problem, when it's a hugely complex problem with lots of bits interconnecting.

Putting a cap on rents decreases the amount of rentals available. Banning "cuckoo funds" decreases the funds for builders who now can't build apartments. Planning permission is archaic. Government tries to increase density, which sets off complaints from NIMBYs. Government tries to build more social housing which also leads to complaints. Ignore the complaints and you get SHDs, which opposition parties are opposed to.

Everything is connected and nothing is fixable in the term of the average government - it's like health. None of the political parties have a sensible position.

The best thing we can do is not vote for whatever the next merry-go-round of political parties is, but appoint some sort of Tsar or super-authority, independent of the politicians, whose job is to fix this. I don't see any other way out of this.

cnocbui

hmmm wrote: »

... The problem we have is people keep saying this is a simple problem, when it's a hugely complex problem with lots of bits interconnecting...

Extra huge mega lol (not that I'm in any disagreement).

fliball123

The only way to get back to a market that is fair is take all subsidies away for both rental and buying. Then even out what Vultures/REITS are paying. The government should hire a private developer and give them a contract that is iron clad and which prices agreed cannot be upped ala the childrens hospital. I mean has anyone got any building work done, you agree a price a time frame and what work has to be done and you pay them a daily rate while working if they dont show up they dont get paid. I know its not that simple but it should be the public sector completely over egg the pudding with things creating cost and confusion instead of just keeping it simple.

These houses built in the scenario above should be used to help those on the lower wage first then anyone on the social should be rehoused in areas that are away from highly populated areas where people who want to work can work.

Also these houses given to the low paid and on welfare should not I repeat should not ever become the property of that person. It should remain with the state and used for the next person who needs it. I dont see why anyone including their offspring should remain in an asset that they have been subsidized to live in for a long period of time.

Anyone here think this will happen?

Not a chance as Young Mary with 5 kids has to live beside mammy as who will mind the nippers on micky money day. The whole system needs a reboot but no one in government has the balls to stand up to our left leaning policies and our right leaning policies that make it hard for the average working person to live and gives preferential treatment to those who cant or don't want to work and to the big boys who are so rich they almost bow to them.

Villa05

awec wrote:

Houses are still just 4 walls and a roof in the same way that a 2021 car is the same as the one Henry Ford built, a few doors and 4 wheels.

Oddly enough they got more affordable and better over time in real terms despite heavy taxation, while housing got smaller and less affordable with numerous tax incentives and buyer grants

Villa05

Amadan Dubh wrote:

I was a card carrying member of the communist party of Ireland back in 06 before becoming a card carrying member of FG in 08. What would that make me?

Bertie Ahern

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

Oddly enough they got more affordable and better over time in real terms despite heavy taxation, while housing got smaller and less affordable with numerous tax incentives and buyer grants

We’re still waiting on someone to invent robots that can build houses.

Topgear on Dave

hmmm wrote: »

The best thing we can do is not vote for whatever the next merry-go-round of political parties is, but appoint some sort of Tsar or super-authority, independent of the politicians, whose job is to fix this. I don't see any other way out of this.

Your tsar would be lynched after protests bigger than the water charges.:pac:

Mic 1972

awec wrote: »

We’re still waiting on someone to invent robots that can build houses.

3D printing

Mad_maxx

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

I was a card carrying member of the communist party of Ireland back in 06 before becoming a card carrying member of FG in 08. What would that make me?

An extreme anomaly

Villa05

awec wrote:

We’re still waiting on someone to invent robots that can build houses.

It would make no difference because land would rise quickly to swallow the savings in our system

Mad_maxx

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

His views on the property market are Marxist only when viewed through an overton window that places centrism as selling the country to vulture funds and the ESRI saying things like "“Each successive generation are less likely than the last to own their own home at the same age"


From what i gather one of Hearne's worries is will his kids be able to afford housing in the future and judging by today's ESRI report he has every right to be worried!

He fully supports the o gorman plan to house "refugees " after four months, anyone doing that can sit down re_ housing shortage speeches

Villa05

Mad_maxx wrote:

He fully supports the o gorman plan to house "refugees " after four months, anyone doing that can sit down re_ housing shortage speeches

Does that include supporting there right to work

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

It would make no difference because land would rise quickly to swallow the savings in our system

It would make a big difference if labour costs were no longer a major factor. It would also reduce material costs as robots make less mistakes.

While houses are very different to what they used to be, the construction methods haven't changed an awful lot, it's still incredibly labour intensive.

timmyntc

awec wrote: »

We’re still waiting on someone to invent robots that can build houses.

Prefabricated panels can be mass produced - the problem is in Ireland we don't like wooden houses.

We also dont grow enough lumber in this country either.

SmokyMo

Housing is a hard issue but not complex to solve. This is not cancer treatment. There are literally hundreds of books written on solving housing crises if you lack imagination and critical thinking.