2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

deise121

hmmm wrote: »

I think it's the other way around. The problem we have is people keep saying this is a simple problem, when it's a hugely complex problem with lots of bits interconnecting.

Putting a cap on rents decreases the amount of rentals available. Banning "cuckoo funds" decreases the funds for builders who now can't build apartments. Planning permission is archaic. Government tries to increase density, which sets off complaints from NIMBYs. Government tries to build more social housing which also leads to complaints. Ignore the complaints and you get SHDs, which opposition parties are opposed to.

Everything is connected and nothing is fixable in the term of the average government - it's like health. None of the political parties have a sensible position.

The best thing we can do is not vote for whatever the next merry-go-round of political parties is, but appoint some sort of Tsar or super-authority, independent of the politicians, whose job is to fix this. I don't see any other way out of this.

here's an idea...make it easier for planning permission to go ahead. **** the nimby pricks who would rather look at a boarded up house than a modern building

fliball123

SmokyMo wrote: »

Housing is a hard issue but not complex to solve. This is not cancer treatment. There are literally hundreds of books written on solving housing crises if you lack imagination and critical thinking.

Ireland doesnt do simple.
Look at our income tax system.
Look at our HSE.
Look at the current property/housing situation.
Look at the communication around covid
Look at our procurement system
Look at how easy people in power and rich people get away with lies and actions that hurt the tax payer in this country and there is absolutely no ramifications for them.

This list could go on and on

The above list is a small snapshot of just some areas (there are many more) that prove that the powers that be (politicians) are clock watchers and do not have the stomach to tackle any issue that may seem to difficult or see them lose their power and it shows the main reason they go into politics is their end game of a big fat pension (the wage aint bad either)


Until politicians are reprimanded (financially) and held accountable for their actions nothing will change in this country. The whole political system needs to be knocked down and built up again with accountability at the heart of what is built up.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

The only way to get back to a market that is fair is take all subsidies away for both rental and buying. Then even out what Vultures/REITS are paying. The government should hire a private developer and give them a contract that is iron clad and which prices agreed cannot be upped ala the childrens hospital. I mean has anyone got any building work done, you agree a price a time frame and what work has to be done and you pay them a daily rate while working if they dont show up they dont get paid. I know its not that simple but it should be the public sector completely over egg the pudding with things creating cost and confusion instead of just keeping it simple.

These houses built in the scenario above should be used to help those on the lower wage first then anyone on the social should be rehoused in areas that are away from highly populated areas where people who want to work can work.

Also these houses given to the low paid and on welfare should not I repeat should not ever become the property of that person. It should remain with the state and used for the next person who needs it. I dont see why anyone including their offspring should remain in an asset that they have been subsidized to live in for a long period of time.

Anyone here think this will happen?

Not a chance as Young Mary with 5 kids has to live beside mammy as who will mind the nippers on micky money day. The whole system needs a reboot but no one in government has the balls to stand up to our left leaning policies and our right leaning policies that make it hard for the average working person to live and gives preferential treatment to those who cant or don't want to work and to the big boys who are so rich they almost bow to them.

Firstly, there are no highly populated area of Dublin (relative to most other countries). Second, the state knew that "Young Mary" would most likely need a home c. 20 years ago and didn't plan to house her and the bust is absolutely no excuse IMO. That's 100% the states fault and I pay them very high salaries/pensions and I pay very high taxes for them to foresee and plan for such things so that I don't have to feel guilty, provide services and take care of the less well off/vulnerable in society. As per the below, my taxes don't go into "social welfare" in any meaningful sense, so where do my taxes go as they were collecting over €80B per year pre-covid?

Of the €21 billion in "social welfare" spending in 2019 (the only comparable year (pre-covid):

Admin: €0.722M
Pensions: €8.21M
Working Age - Income Supports: €3.26M
Working Age - Employment Supports: €0.692M
Illness, Disability and Carers: €4.51M
Children: €2.65M
Supplementary Payments: €0.788M

Where do you suppose they should cut? And, then can all the young people stop paying PRSI? And, then how will all those existing pensioners get paid? Should carers demand a real wage commensurate to what they actually do? That would cost us a fortune IMO

Our social welfare system is amazingly cheap given that it's basically self-financing through our PRSI etc. contributions and that carers work for less than their real worth. The only section that didn't pay for itself was the pensions part IMO

Amadan Dubh

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bulk-buying-of-homes-could-be-banned-by-summer-h0tj7pt7f

Bulk buying of homes could be banned by summer

Ministers want to change planning regulations within weeks to ban multiple property purchases in developments below a certain density.

Paul Gallagher, the attorney-general, is studying the Planning Act 2000 to determine if the restrictions can be made without new legislation, which would allow a ban before summer.

The move, led by Darragh O’Brien, the housing minister, would not apply retrospectively to any developments that already have planning permission.

One government source said the plan would rule out multiple purchases in developments with a density below 40 units per hectare. Bulk buying could be limited to densities above 50 units per hectare.

Sources said O’Brien was unlikely to implement a geographic ban on venture funds purchasing homes outside city centre areas, one of the strategies that was being considered by government to force institutional buyers out of the family home market.

Paschal Donohoe, the finance minister, is understood to be examining a form of punitive stamp duty that could be levied on bulk property purchases stop or discourage the purchase of 100 or more houses in a single estate as happened last month in Mullen Park, Maynooth, Co Kildare.

Sources say a punitive stamp duty on such purchases or a change to the tax code restricting REITs to high density developments like apartments are among the measures being considered.

"Could" ; here's to hoping and of course as always the devil will be in the exemptions. I'd also be shocked if Paul "landlord" Gallagher advises that strong measures stand up to legal scrutiny but we shall see shortly.

PropQueries

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bulk-buying-of-homes-could-be-banned-by-summer-h0tj7pt7f



"Could" ; here's to hoping and of course as always the devil will be in the exemptions. I'd also be shocked if Paul "landlord" Gallagher advises that strong measures stand up to legal scrutiny but we shall see shortly.

"The move, led by Darragh O’Brien, the housing minister, would not apply retrospectively to any developments that already have planning permission."

If that's their plan to help people looking to buy in the next c. 5 years, it's not really a plan

enricoh

Mad_maxx wrote: »

He fully supports the o gorman plan to house "refugees " after four months, anyone doing that can sit down re_ housing shortage speeches

Any refugee coming over for o Gorman's manna from heaven may do so pronto. Paddy is beginning to join the dots on our housing crisis.

And ff and fg are beginning to realize there's no votes in outbidding Paddy's kids on a house to hand it to someone in the country 4 months. Twitter likes don't count in the ballot box!

Michael Martin on the radio earlier, he thought he'd be basking in reopening the country this week, instead he's on the ropes with ordinary punters being outbid.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Firstly, there are no highly populated area of Dublin (relative to most other countries). Second, the state knew that "Young Mary" would most likely need a home c. 20 years ago and didn't plan to house her and the bust is absolutely no excuse IMO. That's 100% the states fault and I pay them very high salaries/pensions and I pay very high taxes for them to foresee and plan for such things so that I don't have to feel guilty, provide services and take care of the less well off/vulnerable in society. As per the below, my taxes don't go into "social welfare" in any meaningful sense, so where do my taxes go as they were collecting over €80B per year pre-covid?

Of the €21 billion in "social welfare" spending in 2019 (the only comparable year (pre-covid):

Admin: €0.722M
Pensions: €8.21M
Working Age - Income Supports: €3.26M
Working Age - Employment Supports: €0.692M
Illness, Disability and Carers: €4.51M
Children: €2.65M
Supplementary Payments: €0.788M

Where do you suppose they should cut? And, then can all the young people stop paying PRSI? And, then how will all those existing pensioners get paid? Should carers demand a real wage commensurate to what they actually do? That would cost us a fortune IMO

Our social welfare system is amazingly cheap given that it's basically self-financing through our PRSI etc. contributions and that carers work for less than their real worth. The only section that didn't pay for itself was the pensions part IMO

So the state should of been there in the bed telling young Mary to keep her legs together. Does Mary not have any personal responsibility to not keep having kids she cant afford? So this is 100% someone elses fault. Will you give over this is one of the biggest problems in this country no personal accountability, weather its a banker juggling billions to deceive our amazing financial watch dogs, or a politician pretending like they give a flying phuck and making sure they are covered no mater how the wind blows, or young Mary who has not just had one kid but 4/5 and expects the state to be baby daddy. Who pays?? The tax payer pays, they are left on the hook for the rich the poor and the self serving public servants like politicians.

Our welfare spend is 23.3 billion
https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/

The whole lot needs to be looked at root and branch and if savings can be made they should be made

A few examples would be if people are pulling a fast one with regards to working in the black market and claiming. Also Daddy's name needs to go on the birth cert and they should be forced to pay their share for their kid. There is abuse going on in the system to say otherwise is just being blinkered.

Really so you think our social welfare system is cheap we are paying 23.3 billion how much did PRSI bring in? Our welfare system is far from cheap. You of all people should understand that the powers that be normally calculate this as a % of our GDP and with your commentary on our corporation tax which you have been saying this will be getting drained away by at least 6 billion over the next few years. Do you think 23.3 billion is sustainable?

Do we just keep borrowing? Do we tax our workers more? Any answer must also be framed with the following

current debt 240 Billion
current deficit of 17Billion
Taxation on income already at the point of diminishing returns
Our rates of tax increasing to mindblowing levels at a very low rate.
With WFH allowing higher paid individuals leave and work from outside of Ireland meaning less tax
A housing problem that could take 10s of billions to sort
A wave of refugees coming in here due to the changes to the nature of making an illegal immigrant legal. Further making the housing problem worse
Then your 6billion loss coming in the next couple of years via the OCED pushing tax changes on us.

To me it seems like the tax payer is a magic money tree that successive governments have just kept picking at over the last 2 decades. So much so we have seen our debt and deficit sore as the tax payer cant take much more

RichardAnd

enricoh wrote: »

Any refugee coming over for o Gorman's manna from heaven may do so pronto. Paddy is beginning to join the dots on our housing crisis.

And ff and ff are beginning to realize there's no votes in outbidding Paddy's kids on a house to hand it to someone in the country 4 months. Twitter likes don't count in the ballot box!

Michael Martin on the radio earlier, he thought he'd be basking in reopening the country this week, instead he's on the ropes with ordinary punters being outbid.

Has there actually been any push-back about this housing idea for "refugees"?

The state seems to want to bring people into the country to perpetuate the demand for housing, which happens to be very good news if you're in the business of signing 25 years leases with the state.

To me, there needs to be a serious discussion about immigration and its effects on housing. Yes, it is a taboo topic, but humans are not simply cattle to be imported to create a market.

Villa05

awec wrote:

It would make a big difference if labour costs were no longer a major factor. It would also reduce material costs as robots make less mistakes.

awec wrote:

While houses are very different to what they used to be, the construction methods haven't changed an awful lot, it's still incredibly labour intensive.

Why do you think there has been little innovation in a product that every citizen in the world needs?

I don't know how many times we have been told on this thread down through the years that the price of a house is dependent on the wages of its citizens at the higher end.
This means innovation is pretty much irrelevant as the vested interests ring-fence the savings for themselves through higher land prices, profits, multiple layers of profit taking etc

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

So the state should of been there in the bed telling young Mary to keep her legs together. Does Mary not have any personal responsibility to not keep having kids she cant afford? So this is 100% someone elses fault. Will you give over this is one of the biggest problems in this country no personal accountability, weather its a banker juggling billions to deceive the our amazing financial watch dogs, or a politician pretending like they give a flying phuck and making sure they are covered no mater how the wind blows, or young Mary who has not just had one kid but 4/5 and expects the state to be baby daddy. Who pays?? The tax payer pays, they are left on the hook for the rich the poor and the self serving public servants like politicians.

Our welfare spend is 23.3 billion
https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/

The whole lot needs to be looked at root and branch and if savings can be made they should be made

A few examples would be if people are pulling a fast one with regards to working in the black market and claiming. Also Daddy's name needs to go on the birth cert and they should be forced to pay their share for their kid. There is abuse going on in the system to say otherwise is just being blinkered.

Really so you think our our social welfare system is cheap we are paying 23.3 billion how much did PRSI bring in? Our welfare system is far from cheap. You of all people should understand that the powers that be normally calculate this as a % of our GDP and with your commentary on our corporation tax which you have been saying this will be getting drained away by at least 6 billion over the next few years. Do you think 23.3 billion is sustainable?

Do we just keep borrowing? Do we tax our workers more?

Really? You're comparing the "social welfare" payments during covid as your argument that they're too high?

Cut social welfare? I've no problem with that. But, then we would have to tell everyone under 55 that they no longer have to pay PRSI as why would they pay PRSI? Is there really such great savings to be made? I have no problem with that if that's your solution. But, then, who will pay for the state pensions? Who will pay for the carers? The potential savings are fairly meaningless in a c. €80B per year budget IMO. All it does is make life harder for the people at the bottom and we gain nothing IMO

For example, if HAP is cut and the state stops leasing homes, what will that do to the value of our homes? And, what is the actually "market value" of my home. In 2006, it may have had a "market value" of €1m, in 2011, it may have had a "market value" of €500k and in 2018 it may have had a "market value" of €800k. What will it's "market value" be in 6 months?

And, does the "market value" of my home really mean anything anymore given the likely scenario of a different form of "fair deal" scheme in 10 years time?

The high cost of living in this country has nothing to do with Mary. Our high national debt has nothing to do with Mary. Our high home prices have nothing to do with Mary. Our high taxes have nothing to do with Mary.

If anyone believes that cutting for the bottom rung of society will result in them getting anything in return, I think they would be fooling themselves IMO

Bass Reeves

timmyntc wrote: »

Prefabricated panels can be mass produced - the problem is in Ireland we don't like wooden houses.

We also dont grow enough lumber in this country either.

It's a bit more complex than that. While timber frame are Ok on the internal leaf of a house with exposed wood in Ireland has a limited lifespan. In other countries external wood can last hundreds of years this is not so in Ireland. It has been trialed in different methods and situations but because of our weather exposed external timber frame will not work

Graham

Mod Note

please take the social welfare debate to PM or a more appropriate forum

Do not reply to this post.

timmyntc

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It's a bit more complex than that. While timber frame are Ok on the internal leaf of a house with exposed wood in Ireland has a limited lifespan. In other countries external wood can last hundreds of years this is not so in Ireland. It has been trialed in different methods and situations but because of our weather exposed external timber frame will not work

I disagree - there are windier and wetter countries than ours, and wooden houses are still widely used the world over.

Most masonry houses are not expected to last hundreds of years without maintenance - same goes for timber.
If your house is well built, moisture and rot simply should not happen. Damp/mould/rotting is the sign of a serious structural issue, it doesnt happen under normal conditions.

External facing timber is treated & typically would be woods with low natural moisture contents, so should not rot either. it sounds like a cop out from our behind-the-times construction industry.

cnocbui

fliball123 wrote: »

...

Our welfare spend is 23.3 billion
https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/

23.3 billion, divided by the number of tax payers, numbering roughly 3.77 million, means each taxpayer needs to cough up around €6,000 just to pay for welfare.

I have found a solution to all these problems, it's called Dublin Airport.

cnocbui

timmyntc wrote: »

I disagree - there are windier and wetter countries than ours, and wooden houses are still widely used the world over.

Most masonry houses are not expected to last hundreds of years without maintenance - same goes for timber.
If your house is well built, moisture and rot simply should not happen. Damp/mould/rotting is the sign of a serious structural issue, it doesnt happen under normal conditions.

External facing timber is treated & typically would be woods with low natural moisture contents, so should not rot either. it sounds like a cop out from our behind-the-times construction industry.

I used supposedly the best timber protection product you can get - Sikkens - and my wooden shed has been wrecked by damp and slaters. This climate is hopeless.

Mad_maxx

Villa05 wrote: »

Does that include supporting there right to work

Work at what?

Bass Reeves

timmyntc wrote: »

I disagree - there are windier and wetter countries than ours, and wooden houses are still widely used the world over.

Most masonry houses are not expected to last hundreds of years without maintenance - same goes for timber.
If your house is well built, moisture and rot simply should not happen. Damp/mould/rotting is the sign of a serious structural issue, it doesnt happen under normal conditions.

External facing timber is treated & typically would be woods with low natural moisture contents, so should not rot either. it sounds like a cop out from our behind-the-times construction industry.

It's a he moisture droplet size in Ireland is the issue. Its the smallest in most of the world.every type of preservation has been tried and had failed. Along with that we have a longer wet period of the year than anywhere else in Europe and shorter dry period.

Everything has been tried and has failed. I bought a hen ARK from the UK that lasts 40+ years in the UK and Scandinavian countries. It did not reach its tenth birthday in Ireland.

There was wood houses build in the UK pre 1500 still standing. Do you not think considering that we were ruled by British for so long that wood houses were not build here in that time frame.....where are they now.

Timber cattle sheds are common in certain parts of the UK. The are the unsuitable for Irish weather conditions.

Moisture droplet size is the issue

timmyntc

cnocbui wrote: »

I used supposedly the best timber protection product you can get - Sikkens - and my wooden shed has been wrecked by damp and slaters. This climate is hopeless.

Ah here a shed isnt the same as a house.

A house will have moisture barriers on inside, proper treated wood cladding or similar on outside. Drainage, etc and all round better sealed from the elements.

Mad_maxx

enricoh wrote: »

Any refugee coming over for o Gorman's manna from heaven may do so pronto. Paddy is beginning to join the dots on our housing crisis.

And ff and fg are beginning to realize there's no votes in outbidding Paddy's kids on a house to hand it to someone in the country 4 months. Twitter likes don't count in the ballot box!

Michael Martin on the radio earlier, he thought he'd be basking in reopening the country this week, instead he's on the ropes with ordinary punters being outbid.

The QUANGO and media tribes support o Gormans plan, politicians are more influenced by them than middle Ireland

Cal4567

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/planning-board-significantly-underestimated-strategic-housing-work-1.4560913

Planning board ‘significantly underestimated’ strategic housing work

Again, the optics don't look good. What were they thinking, of course it would mean more work.

We just do foresight well, do we? The Planners can't plan in advance.

cnocbui

timmyntc wrote: »

Ah here a shed isnt the same as a house.

A house will have moisture barriers on inside, proper treated wood cladding or similar on outside. Drainage, etc and all round better sealed from the elements.

Build one. Come back to ireland and put your money where your mouth is. It's got nothing to do with moisture barriers. What I built is what they market in the UK as a garden office - a log cabin, made in Finland. I made a ramp from pressure treated decking. That's not long for this life either.

jill_valentine

Not sure if this is allowed but there was an interesting thread on Schmeddit about vacancies in high end apartment complexes around Dublin yesterday.

Not interested in reopening the Geodirectories argument or anything but there were some startling figures. Clancy Quay, the massive set of apartments near HSQ is reporting only 38% occupancy?? So 62% of its capacity - shelter for more than a thousand people by their reckoning - is sitting idle in that one complex. On paper you could shelter an eighth of the recorded homeless population of the entire country in the vacancy of that one development. But we can't, because fundconomics needs their potential value more than it needs any actual income from them.

I mean I know it's not that simple and I get the whole concept of asset value but jaysus...

PropQueries

Interesting article in Agriland today with Seán Canney (TD for Galway) in relation to getting those vacant properties in towns and villages in Ireland back into use.

While he's primarily talking about towns and villages outside Dublin, he also says that "According to the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI), 75% of all floor space above ground floor retail space in Dublin city is empty."

I don't agree with many of his solutions as they're primarily carrot based when we're way past carrot based solutions at this stage and we're more in need of significant big sticks IMO. But the 75% of all floor space above ground floor retail space in Dublin City being empty is a bit of an eye-opener and a easy win or the silver bullet for the state should they choose to use it IMO

Link to the article in Agriland.ie here: https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/vacant-homes-in-towns-and-villages-could-solve-housing-shortage-canney/

Hubertj

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It's a he moisture droplet size in Ireland is the issue. Its the smallest in most of the world.every type of preservation has been tried and had failed. Along with that we have a longer wet period of the year than anywhere else in Europe and shorter dry period.

Everything has been tried and has failed. I bought a hen ARK from the UK that lasts 40+ years in the UK and Scandinavian countries. It did not reach its tenth birthday in Ireland.

There was wood houses build in the UK pre 1500 still standing. Do you not think considering that we were ruled by British for so long that wood houses were not build here in that time frame.....where are they now.

Timber cattle sheds are common in certain parts of the UK. The are the unsuitable for Irish weather conditions.

Moisture droplet size is the issue

Very enlightening thank you. I’ve heard the debate around this before but never any specifics around why it isn’t feasible.

Marius34

jill_valentine wrote: »

Not sure if this is allowed but there was an interesting thread on Schmeddit about vacancies in high end apartment complexes around Dublin yesterday.

Not interested in reopening the Geodirectories argument or anything but there were some startling figures. Clancy Quay, the massive set of apartments near HSQ is reporting only 38% occupancy??

I mean I get the whole concept of asset value but jaysus...

I don't think the main issue is asset value, RPZ is likely a bigger issue they are facing.

Browney7

jill_valentine wrote: »

Not sure if this is allowed but there was an interesting thread on Schmeddit about vacancies in high end apartment complexes around Dublin yesterday.

Not interested in reopening the Geodirectories argument or anything but there were some startling figures. Clancy Quay, the massive set of apartments near HSQ is reporting only 38% occupancy??

I mean I get the whole concept of asset value but jaysus...

Kennedy wilson have numbers as at q1 on their site. They list an average occupancy % for "multifamily property" for 2021 of 91.9% which was 98.4% for their 2020 figures. Revenue down from 7.2m to 6.8m.

They have a separate section explaining their portfolio in "lease-up" under which capital dock and Clancy quay are listed. The % leased of multifamily units in capital dock is 53% (89 units out of 190 are not leased) and the equivalent figure in Clancy quay phase 3 is 54% (128 out of 279 units are not leased).

From memory and open to correction, capital dock launched in late 2019 and Clancy quay was summer 2020.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

I don't think the main issue is asset value, RPZ is likely a bigger issue they are facing.

It must be asset value as it can't be RPZ rules unless they believe the Government is going to remove them in the next 12 months.

Would that be politically feasible if there is a supply shortage especially as it would most likely just result in more government spending on HAP etc. at a time when they really don't have any more to give?

The only solution is a vacant property tax i.e. applying a real cost to keeping properties vacant. If this government doesn't bring it in, the next government most likely will. Just for revenue generating measures if nothing else IMO

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

It must be asset value as it can't be RPZ rules unless they believe the Government is going to remove them in the next 12 months.

Would that be politically feasible if there is a supply shortage especially as it would most likely just result in more government spending on HAP etc. at a time when they really don't have any more to give?

The only solution is a vacant property tax i.e. applying a real cost to keeping properties vacant. If this government doesn't bring it in, the next government most likely will. Just for revenue generating measures if nothing else IMO

Or maybe they hope that life in lockdown is not forever.

jill_valentine

2020 was just Clancy Quay's last phase. As far as I can tell Phase 1, with 400+ units, has been on the go since 2013, I don't know about Phase 2.

But that's crazy. I mean I understand the market produces weird outcomes sometimes, but that's a fundamentally mad situation. Essentially every occupied unit has a unit each side of them empty? Everything that makes that economic needs re examining.

Browney7

jill_valentine wrote: »

2020 was just Clancy Quay's last phase. As far as I can tell Phase 1, with 400+ units, has been on the go since 2013, I don't know about Phase 2.

But that's crazy. I mean I understand the market produces weird outcomes sometimes, but that's a fundamentally mad situation. Essentially every occupied unit has a unit each side of them empty? Everything that makes that economic needs re examining.

Phase 1 and 2 of CQ would then be in first set of figures I expect. IRES publish figures also which have a lower level of vacancies than KW. When I looked on daft recently ires had approx 60 ads for property for rent at present.