2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

But how many of the landowners who paid over the odds during the Celtic tiger years are still making decisions other than being the face of the company? Wouldn’t the banks, Nama or the funds now own/owned or at least have control or a major say in most of that land today.

A lot of the developers bought the land back from NAMA

Timing belt

Smouse156 wrote: »

Well I will be (possibly) and I’m not gonna buy if it means I’d be in negative equity within a year! Fundamentally any spikes are unsustainable as wages are going down.

I work in finance and I realise that asset inflation is currently present in the stock market but housing is not the same thing...if a 400k house had two bidders with maximum budget of 350k last year and they have 5 bidders this year with 350k max budget, the house still drops in price to sell! Overall unless wages rise with this inflation, eventually supply will put over payers into negative equity pretty quickly

How are wages going down? pay rises not matching inflation??

close to 50% of property bought on the market at the moment is done so without a mortgage.

if you are paying rent you are better off taking the gamble on negative equity as most of the time you are financially better off buying
e.g.
If there was a 5% drop in prices on a 400k house you would only be financially better off renting for 8 months after that you would have been better off buying.
likewise if it was a 10% drop you would be better off renting for 16 months.

Ursabear

Smouse156 wrote: »

Well I will be (possibly) and I’m not gonna buy if it means I’d be in negative equity within a year! Fundamentally any spikes are unsustainable as wages are going down.

I work in finance and I realise that asset inflation is currently present in the stock market but housing is not the same thing...if a 400k house had two bidders with maximum budget of 350k last year and they have 5 bidders this year with 350k max budget, the house still drops in price to sell! Overall unless wages rise with this inflation, eventually supply will put over payers into negative equity pretty quickly

Am also buying and very worried that prices are over inflated and we will be in negative equity in a few years . However I think supply is so low it will only get worse for the next two years, and in those two years we will pay 36k on rent. Moreso as we are WFH since covid we are dying for a garden and to have more space so our work area can be in a different room to where we relax.

Smouse156

Timing belt wrote: »

How are wages going down? pay rises not matching inflation??

close to 50% of property bought on the market at the moment is done so without a mortgage.

if you are paying rent you are better off taking the gamble on negative equity as most of the time you are financially better off buying
e.g.
If there was a 5% drop in prices on a 400k house you would only be financially better off renting for 8 months after that you would have been better off buying.
likewise if it was a 10% drop you would be better off renting for 16 months.

First off, I’m not renting so can wait! Secondly, how do you think wages are rising in the overall market given the 600k plus people on PUP/TWSS??

PommieBast

Ursabear wrote: »

Am also buying and very worried that prices are over inflated and we will be in negative equity in a few years . However I think supply is so low it will only get worse for the next two years, and in those two years we will pay 36k on rent. Moreso as we are WFH since covid we are dying for a garden and to have more space so our work area can be in a different room to where we relax.

The Dublin property market is so screwed up that you basically have to assume you will be overcharged. Pre-Covid I assumed 5-10% purely due to opaque way auctions are carried out.


With the prospect of permanent WFH and even more anti-landlord regulations, much of the case for buying city-centre apartments is at best on shakey ground.

Ursabear

PommieBast wrote: »

The Dublin property market is so screwed up that you basically have to assume you will be overcharged. Pre-Covid I assumed 5-10% purely due to opaque way auctions are carried out.


With the prospect of permanent WFH and even more anti-landlord regulations, much of the case for buying city-centre apartments is at best on shakey ground.

Agree with that about city apartments, we will be buying out of city , near family as this pandemic has proven how nice it into be around family.( not being able to see them or most of a year) . I think we could WFH for the rest of our careers, so we have considered buying a nicer house down the country, but family trumped that, however a handful of friends have started doing so.

LillySV

Idbatterim wrote: »

I agree with PUP payments, I agree with a welfare system based on what you paid in, reflects what you get out. You think a system where one person loses a job and a hundred a week and another loses a thousand a week, but pays the same flat system, is a good or fair situation?

Germany and anywhere else that isnt a joke I assume, pay out, based on what you pay in. Mental that they actually have a PAY RELATED social insurance :rolleyes:

Get paid over 350 for one week and then be let go, and then u can have been paid 350 a week since March last year.... yea great payment .... a lot of people from abroad agree with u .... they’ve got their ppsn and got set up to claim since too !

Timing belt

Smouse156 wrote: »

First off, I’m not renting so can wait! Secondly, how do you think wages are rising in the overall market given the 600k plus people on PUP/TWSS??

Covid has not impacted all certain sectors of the economy and there are plenty of people well paid that earn more now than they did a year ago.

Geuze

PropQueries wrote: »

So, it’s probably agreed that the only real reason for the difference in the cost of building an A2-rated three bed semi in Dublin compared to Waterford is the cost of the site.

All those reports published over the past 5 years on the possible reasons for the rising cost of housing in Dublin are next to useless from a government policy point of view.

Unless the government implements the Kenny report or something similar, it would seem there’s no point commissioning another report unless it properly addresses the only real reason for the difference i.e. the site cost.

They should also probably rename the proposed HTB scheme to HTL i.e. Help The Landowner, as that’s where the proposed up to €100k loan to the poor home buyer will be really going.

Yes, land and site costs are a cancer at the heart of Irish society.

L1011

LillySV wrote: »

Get paid over 350 for one week and then be let go, and then u can have been paid 350 a week since March last year.... yea great payment .... a lot of people from abroad agree with u .... they’ve got their ppsn and got set up to claim since too !

Take the conspiracy theories elsewhere

Villa05

Ursabear wrote:

Am also buying and very worried that prices are over inflated and we will be in negative equity in a few years . However I think supply is so low it will only get worse for the next two years, and in those two years we will pay 36k on rent. Moreso as we are WFH since covid we are dying for a garden and to have more space so our work area can be in a different room to where we relax.

What County are u working in

Smouse156

Timing belt wrote: »

Covid has not impacted all certain sectors of the economy and there are plenty of people well paid that earn more now than they did a year ago.

Yes but overall economy effects overall property market. Not many sectors saw wage rises last year. Retail and tourism shut down effects sectors other than retail and tourism. Accounting & legal for example all took pay cuts/no bonuses etc due to downturn in business. Even companies that did really well like Tesla took pay cuts. For houses to rise sustainably (above 2018) there has to be either wage increases or relaxation of CBI rules

Smouse156

Ursabear wrote: »

Am also buying and very worried that prices are over inflated and we will be in negative equity in a few years . However I think supply is so low it will only get worse for the next two years, and in those two years we will pay 36k on rent. Moreso as we are WFH since covid we are dying for a garden and to have more space so our work area can be in a different room to where we relax.

Outside Dublin, I think prices will keep rising as they haven’t hit maximum affordability yet. In Dublin, given all the fundamental factors: WFH, most housing supply being built in Dublin, the fact that many many don’t want to live there (can’t see the rent slaves skipping into work to pay 40-60% of their income in rent for a shoebox apartment and loving the place) and maximum affordability it is more likely (negative equity) in the medium term.

However, if you are renting you might still be better off buying as long as you don’t get carried away in bidding wars.

handlemaster

After the covid there will be more WFH but ultimately people will move back to the main job centers. Not all employers will want their staff WFH even if they can. And not everyone wants to wfh either. If your a family person with kids it would suit perhaps more wfh but when your young and single you want to mingle.

Smouse156

handlemaster wrote: »

After the covid there will be more WFH but ultimately people will move back to the main job centers. Not all employers will want their staff WFH even if they can. And not everyone wants to wfh either. If your a family person with kids it would suit perhaps more wfh but when your young and single you want to mingle.

Yes but a balanced WFH policy which I believe most companies will implement will make the commuter counties (Kildare, Meath etc) far far more attractive than 5 days a week in Dublin!

One of the positives of Covid has been WFH and many of the Dublin rent slaves stuck in the rent trap have now managed to save a deposit. 3/4 bed new build with near zero deposit in Kildare/Meath v shoebox in Dublin, where would you pick if you only had to be in office twice/three times a week with a family? Won’t suit young people I know but most young people are renters anyway and not in a position (low wages) or not looking to buy

TheSheriff

Smouse156 wrote: »

Yes but a balanced WFH policy which I believe most companies will implement will make the commuter counties (Kildare, Meath etc) far far more attractive than 5 days a week in Dublin!

One of the positives of Covid has been WFH and many of the Dublin rent slaves stuck in the rent trap have now managed to save a deposit. 3/4 bed new build with near zero deposit in Kildare/Meath v shoebox in Dublin, where would you pick if you only had to be in office twice/three times a week with a family? Won’t suit young people I know but most young people are renters anyway and not in a position (low wages) or not looking to buy

You very clearly have some hatred of Dublin, not sure why you are (possibly/maybe/might be) buying there.

Marty1983

I am sale agreed on a new house at present (i have contracts signed), the auctioneer told me yesterday that all the other properties in the estate where contracts are not signed, the prices are going up! The developer is blaming cost of materials increasing due to both covid and brexit!!
Is this happening everywhere?

Ursabear

Villa05 wrote: »

What County are u working in

Dublin, and buying in a satellite county near my family.

QUOTE=Marty1983;116016198]I am sale agreed on a new house at present (i have contracts signed), the auctioneer told me yesterday that all the other properties in the estate where contracts are not signed, the prices are going up! The developer is blaming cost of materials increasing due to both covid and brexit!!
Is this happening everywhere?[/QUOTE]

Yes we are not sale agreed, and we queries the deltas between what is on the price register from Dec compared to new build prices in Jan and we were told the same by one agent.

Smouse156

TheSheriff wrote: »

You very clearly have some hatred of Dublin, not sure why you are (possibly/maybe/might be) buying there.

Don’t hate it, just feel people get a very raw deal there! I haven’t lived in Dublin since 2016 (rent was low then) and it’s a decent city if you own your own house, however, you’d have to feel for the rent slaves getting such a raw deal paying the highest rents in the euro zone and working solely to enrich the landlord, to live in a city that’s no way comparable to places like Paris. House prices are at least more reasonable. I think many people feel the same way

PropQueries

Smouse156 wrote: »

Don’t hate it, just feel people get a very raw deal there! I haven’t lived in Dublin since 2016 (rent was low then) and it’s a decent city if you own your own house, however, you’d have to feel for the rent slaves getting such a raw deal paying the highest rents in the euro zone and working solely to enrich the landlord, to live in a city that’s no way comparable to places like Paris. House prices are at least more reasonable. I think many people feel the same way

Most people appear to think that living in Dublin means you're within walking distance of the city centre and all it's "amenities". If you are, then, yes, it's much better than living elsewhere.


But, if you're living in e.g. Lucan, Swords etc., what's the difference between Lucan, Swords etc. and living further out if you only have to work in the office in the city 2 days a week?


The only real difference, IMO, is that it will cost you an extra €100k+ with no real added benefit. Living in an estate in Lucan, Swords etc., if you have no friends, family etc. living nearby is as depressing as living further out.

PommieBast

Ursabear wrote: »

Agree with that about city apartments, we will be buying out of city , near family as this pandemic has proven how nice it into be around family.( not being able to see them or most of a year) . I think we could WFH for the rest of our careers, so we have considered buying a nicer house down the country, but family trumped that, however a handful of friends have started doing so.

Makes me shudder that I was on the verge of exchanging for somewhere Dublin 1 back in July. Would be licking serious losses already..

PommieBast

handlemaster wrote: »

After the covid there will be more WFH but ultimately people will move back to the main job centers. Not all employers will want their staff WFH even if they can. And not everyone wants to wfh either. If your a family person with kids it would suit perhaps more wfh but when your young and single you want to mingle.

Employers might not have the choice. That is why the proposal to make WFH an employee right is a development to watch. Agree about the single part though but that alone won't sustain current prices.

PommieBast

Marty1983 wrote: »

I am sale agreed on a new house at present (i have contracts signed), the auctioneer told me yesterday that all the other properties in the estate where contracts are not signed, the prices are going up! The developer is blaming cost of materials increasing due to both covid and brexit!!
Is this happening everywhere?

There is a more fundamental question: Is he talking out of his mouth or his arse?

Villa05

TheSheriff wrote:

You very clearly have some hatred of Dublin, not sure why you are (possibly/maybe/might be) buying there.

I did not detect hatred for Dublin in post, moreso for the housing situation. Big difference

Villa05

Ursabear wrote:

Dublin, and buying in a satellite county near my family.

Sateltte Dublin may well be the big beneficiary of WFH, if it is within your affordability range and close to your family (which has enormous benefits) it may be time to pull the trigger.

I am convinced we are in a bubble. The last bubble lasted from 1996 to 2006/7.
It will burst again but our government are coming up with ever increasing schemes to make the bubble bigger so it may go on for years yet. The hosing market is controlled by developers/reits and they have the government's ear despite advise to the contrary from the top civil servant advisor.

This government have 4 years left I believe. They won't stop making life more difficult for you as a renter

I put Ireland at 2003 in relation to the next house price crash in comparison to the last one

Marius34

PommieBast wrote: »

Makes me shudder that I was on the verge of exchanging for somewhere Dublin 1 back in July. Would be licking serious losses already..

Do I get it right, you was looking to buy property in Dublin 1, when the property price outlook for Dublin looked very negative?

Villa05

Students in UK planning a rent strike

PommieBast

Marius34 wrote: »

Do I get it right, you was looking to buy property in Dublin 1, when the property price outlook for Dublin looked very negative?

I went sale agreed pre-Covid. Although slightly bearish at the time I had priced that into my budget.

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

Sateltte Dublin may well be the big beneficiary of WFH, if it is within your affordability range and close to your family (which has enormous benefits) it may be time to pull the trigger.

I am convinced we are in a bubble. The last bubble lasted from 1996 to 2006/7.
It will burst again but our government are coming up with ever increasing schemes to make the bubble bigger so it may go on for years yet. The hosing market is controlled by developers/reits and they have the government's ear despite advise to the contrary from the top civil servant advisor.

This government have 4 years left I believe. They won't stop making life more difficult for you as a renter

I put Ireland at 2003 in relation to the next house price crash in comparison to the last one

So another 5 years till you think the bubble (you believe is there) will pop.

If that is the case you would be crazy not to buy now if you were able to as
- you are not buying at the peak
- you will have saved 5 years on rent
- you will have 5 years paid off your mortgage

Marius34

PommieBast wrote: »

I went sale agreed pre-Covid. Although slightly bearish at the time I had priced that into my budget.

Ok, I understand your point if you mean you are move out of Dublin city center. Otherwise, if its regarding the price, I don't see what has changed in regards in City center apartments.

Ursabear

Villa05 wrote: »

Sateltte Dublin may well be the big beneficiary of WFH, if it is within your affordability range and close to your family (which has enormous benefits) it may be time to pull the trigger.

I am convinced we are in a bubble. The last bubble lasted from 1996 to 2006/7.
It will burst again but our government are coming up with ever increasing schemes to make the bubble bigger so it may go on for years yet. The hosing market is controlled by developers/reits and they have the government's ear despite advise to the contrary from the top civil servant advisor.

This government have 4 years left I believe. They won't stop making life more difficult for you as a renter

I put Ireland at 2003 in relation to the next house price crash in comparison to the last one

Yep, I agree, I hoping that by this time next month we will be sale agreed . Also we are getting older by the day and want to be able to have a non rent life for example to own a dog! Can't keep putting life on pause.

PommieBast

Marius34 wrote: »

Ok, I understand your point if you mean you are move out of Dublin city center. Otherwise, if its regarding the price, I don't see what has changed in regards in City center apartments.

Suppose it is due to the critiera I have in mind in deciding what property is worth being different from yours. Most of the things that I thought would help prop up Dublin prices have since disappeared.

DataDude

Smouse156 wrote: »

Yes but a balanced WFH policy which I believe most companies will implement will make the commuter counties (Kildare, Meath etc) far far more attractive than 5 days a week in Dublin!

One of the positives of Covid has been WFH and many of the Dublin rent slaves stuck in the rent trap have now managed to save a deposit. 3/4 bed new build with near zero deposit in Kildare/Meath v shoebox in Dublin, where would you pick if you only had to be in office twice/three times a week with a family? Won’t suit young people I know but most young people are renters anyway and not in a position (low wages) or not looking to buy

This resonates very strongly with what I have experienced over the last 12 months. I know stories from one individual rarely mean much...but for what it's worth:
I'm fortunate to work in a profession where I meet/work with a fair few 20 somethings with annual incomes in the range of 100-250k (unaffected by COVID-19). Myself and 4 others have been actively searching for homes since late 2019. All 5 of us were set on purchasing between Booterstown and Sandymount (price ranges between 700-1.2m). We have a Whatsapp group where we regularly share properties for others opinions.

Over the last 12 months it has been amazing to watch the group (and my own) perspectives change. Sandymount quickly became removed from all filters, mid last year it was beginning to be Blackrock/Glenageary/Dun Laoghaire...then late last year with us all now having confirmation of between 2-4 days WFH in perpetuity - the properties going into the Whatsapp are now overwhelmingly Greystones/Delgany/Enniskerry/Bray etc.

I'm probably lagging the group to some extent and still haven't ruled out SCD, but once the first of the group bought his stunning house/land in North Wicklow for a pittance compared to Dublin, it's become almost embarrassing to send in a 180m2 4 bed semi D in Booterstown for €900k.

So in our little bubble, 5 high value sales in D4 will now become at least 4 lower value sales in Wicklow (Kildare/Meath etc. are also feasible) solely due to WFH. I know 5 people is a tiny sample size, and it's dangerous to extrapolate your own experiences onto a wider population - but if even 10-20% more young high earning professionals, precisely those who support the most expensive housing markets, turn their back on SCD...I can't see how prices don't suffer in the coming years - it's certainly opened my eyes enough to put any potential purchase on ice!

Villa05

Timing belt wrote:

So another 5 years till you think the bubble (you believe is there) will pop.

When did the SSIAs mature, that cash injection corresponds to jump in savings now, maybe 2005 might be a better measure.
Caveat I suspect most of those savings are attributable to WFH families who have saved on childcare over the last 12 months and are probably home owners

The shared ownership will give another boost to prices and WFH will benefit the Dublin commuter belt so for the poster in question who has family in area,we're it me I'd bite the bullet

Having family closeby is of significant value

Every case is different, I believe the scope for price increase is in Dublin commuter counties, place with good rail access to Dublin, Waterford and Limerick city

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

This resonates very strongly with what I have experienced over the last 12 months. I know stories from one individual rarely mean much...but for what it's worth:
I'm fortunate to work in a profession where I meet/work with a fair few 20 somethings with annual incomes in the range of 100-250k (unaffected by COVID-19). Myself and 4 others have been actively searching for homes since late 2019. All 5 of us were set on purchasing between Booterstown and Sandymount (price ranges between 700-1.2m). We have a Whatsapp group where we regularly share properties for others opinions.

Over the last 12 months it has been amazing to watch the group (and my own) perspectives change. Sandymount quickly became removed from all filters, mid last year it was beginning to be Blackrock/Glenageary/Dun Laoghaire...then late last year with us all now having confirmation of between 2-4 days WFH in perpetuity - the properties going into the Whatsapp are now overwhelmingly Greystones/Delgany/Enniskerry/Bray etc.

I'm probably lagging the group to some extent and still haven't ruled out SCD, but once the first of the group bought his stunning house/land in North Wicklow for a pittance compared to Dublin, it's become almost embarrassing to send in a 180m2 4 bed semi D in Booterstown for €900k.

So in our little bubble, 5 high value sales in D4 will now become at least 4 lower value sales in Wicklow (Kildare/Meath etc. are also feasible) solely due to WFH. I know 5 people is a tiny sample size, and it's dangerous to extrapolate your own experiences onto a wider population - but if even 10-20% more young high earning professionals, precisely those who support the most expensive housing markets, turn their back on SCD...I can't see how prices don't suffer in the coming years - it's certainly opened my eyes enough to put any potential purchase on ice!

Do you think there is a risk of towns like greystones becoming overdeveloped? I like the place and 1 of the reasons it is a “small” town etc. As with many other commuter towns obviously lower prices are attractive but there are also other reasons to move out of the city. If such places become too popular they can lose their allure.

Marty1983

Hubertj wrote: »

Do you think there is a risk of towns like greystones becoming overdeveloped? I like the place and 1 of the reasons it is a “small” town etc. As with many other commuter towns obviously lower prices are attractive but there are also other reasons to move out of the city. If such places become too popular they can lose their allure.

You need strong county planners to combat that and i dont think we have them in Ireland, compared to the north.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

Do you think there is a risk of towns like greystones becoming overdeveloped? I like the place and 1 of the reasons it is a “small” town etc. As with many other commuter towns obviously lower prices are attractive but there are also other reasons to move out of the city. If such places become too popular they can lose their allure.

I think the fact that Glenveagh have just sold their apartments at Marina Village to the same fund that owns Herbert Hill in Dundrum i.e. most likely probably future social housing will remove one of the main benefits of Greystones i.e. it’s seafront area.

Still a lovely town but already seriously overdeveloped and getting more so IMO

Idbatterim

from irish times below, there was already a lack of supply, covid has put another serious dent in it. Jesus the situation is going to be total carnage. At this point, they need to stop new hotel, retail etc, commercial being built, that isnt already under construction in my opinion and divert all resources to residential AND perhaps start rezoning commercial as residential. If this was done in good central areas, the older commercial stuff, might be replaced by residential.

"The Central Bank said it expected new home completions to be in the region of 18,500 in 2020, rising to 21,500-23,500 in 2021 and 2022 respectively. This is 23,000 less than it had predicted prior to the pandemic."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/up-to-23-000-fewer-homes-to-be-built-because-of-covid-19-central-bank-warns-1.4464673

PropQueries

Idbatterim wrote: »

from irish times below, there was already a lack of supply, covid has put another serious dent in it. Jesus the situation is going to be total carnage. At this point, they need to stop new hotel, retail etc, commercial being built, that isnt already under construction in my opinion and divert all resources to residential AND perhaps start rezoning commercial as residential. If this was done in good central areas, the older commercial stuff, might be replaced by residential.

"The Central Bank said it expected new home completions to be in the region of 18,500 in 2020, rising to 21,500-23,500 in 2021 and 2022 respectively. This is 23,000 less than it had predicted prior to the pandemic."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/up-to-23-000-fewer-homes-to-be-built-because-of-covid-19-central-bank-warns-1.4464673

We built c. 21k units in 2019. The 2020 18,500 figure is hardly a massive drop on 2019 especially as there must have been a corresponding reduction in immigrants and international students entering the country during 2020 leading to less demand overall.

DataDude

Hubertj wrote: »

Do you think there is a risk of towns like greystones becoming overdeveloped? I like the place and 1 of the reasons it is a “small” town etc. As with many other commuter towns obviously lower prices are attractive but there are also other reasons to move out of the city. If such places become too popular they can lose their allure.

A very real risk, and one I talk at length about with my partner! I guess it’s always going to be the case that if you find somewhere nice, other people will also want to live there! As another poster suggested, all you can rely on is a solid council planning division. Based on second hand info, I believe Wicklow appear to be one of the toughest planning wise?

One solace I do take is, everyone said Glenheron and Waverley would ‘ruin Greystones’. But it still seems nice to me. I know there is a good few more developments coming and the sale of the golf club is a worry, but hopefully the amenities scale with the town.

If we do go there, we’d look to buy in the burnaby or somewhere just outside with a bit of land around to insulate ourselves from any direct impacts of major developments.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

This resonates very strongly with what I have experienced over the last 12 months. I know stories from one individual rarely mean much...but for what it's worth:
I'm fortunate to work in a profession where I meet/work with a fair few 20 somethings with annual incomes in the range of 100-250k (unaffected by COVID-19). Myself and 4 others have been actively searching for homes since late 2019. All 5 of us were set on purchasing between Booterstown and Sandymount (price ranges between 700-1.2m). We have a Whatsapp group where we regularly share properties for others opinions.

Over the last 12 months it has been amazing to watch the group (and my own) perspectives change. Sandymount quickly became removed from all filters, mid last year it was beginning to be Blackrock/Glenageary/Dun Laoghaire...then late last year with us all now having confirmation of between 2-4 days WFH in perpetuity - the properties going into the Whatsapp are now overwhelmingly Greystones/Delgany/Enniskerry/Bray etc.

I'm probably lagging the group to some extent and still haven't ruled out SCD, but once the first of the group bought his stunning house/land in North Wicklow for a pittance compared to Dublin, it's become almost embarrassing to send in a 180m2 4 bed semi D in Booterstown for €900k.

So in our little bubble, 5 high value sales in D4 will now become at least 4 lower value sales in Wicklow (Kildare/Meath etc. are also feasible) solely due to WFH. I know 5 people is a tiny sample size, and it's dangerous to extrapolate your own experiences onto a wider population - but if even 10-20% more young high earning professionals, precisely those who support the most expensive housing markets, turn their back on SCD...I can't see how prices don't suffer in the coming years - it's certainly opened my eyes enough to put any potential purchase on ice!

Interesting to hear from the horses mouth. There are many on here who say exactly what you describe above is never going to happen, but cannot help think it will happen to some extent. And it does not need to be a very large extent to have a big impact.

I also found your comment - "it's become almost embarrassing to send in a 180m2 4 bed semi D in Booterstown for €900k" - very revealing. Peer groups tend to emulate each other to some extent - if young high earners start saying "sure, why would you buy that in booterstown, when you can get a larger detached in XYZ further out" it will become self reinforcing as more people turn their back on what previous generations have prized. Again it doesn't need to be very many of them to start with to have a big impact.

All in all, cracking post, not least because I am planning on selling one of those detached houses in North Wicklow in the spring!

PropQueries

Robalees wrote: »

In dublin I see a lot of empty houses there's about 200 within a mile of me. They are not for sale or rent I wonder how many houses in dublin are empty.

Well, given all the ex-student and Airbnb rentals that must be vacant, the real vacancy figure must be a multiple of whatever the current “official” figure is.

If it’s not, that means everyone who wanted their own house/apartment in Dublin must already have one by now.

PommieBast

Robalees wrote: »

In dublin I see a lot of empty houses there's about 200 within a mile of me. They are not for sale or rent I wonder how many houses in dublin are empty.

What amazes me is the number of properties that are so derelict they are practically being held intact by plant growth.

hometruths

<SNIP>

Dublin is riddled with vacancies and the number is rising. Bit odd, as it is not what you'd expect in a housing crisis, but there you go.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Interesting to hear from the horses mouth. There are many on here who say exactly what you describe above is never going to happen, but cannot help think it will happen to some extent. And it does not need to be a very large extent to have a big impact.

I also found your comment - "it's become almost embarrassing to send in a 180m2 4 bed semi D in Booterstown for €900k" - very revealing. Peer groups tend to emulate each other to some extent - if young high earners start saying "sure, why would you buy that in booterstown, when you can get a larger detached in XYZ further out" it will become self reinforcing as more people turn their back on what previous generations have prized. Again it doesn't need to be very many of them to start with to have a big impact.

All in all, cracking post, not least because I am planning on selling one of those detached houses in North Wicklow in the spring!

You ain’t gettin 180m2 in booterstown for €900k!

Speaking of north Wicklow how long have you lived there? Do you think it is becoming or there is a risk of being over developed?

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

Interesting to hear from the horses mouth. There are many on here who say exactly what you describe above is never going to happen, but cannot help think it will happen to some extent. And it does not need to be a very large extent to have a big impact.

I also found your comment - "it's become almost embarrassing to send in a 180m2 4 bed semi D in Booterstown for €900k" - very revealing. Peer groups tend to emulate each other to some extent - if young high earners start saying "sure, why would you buy that in booterstown, when you can get a larger detached in XYZ further out" it will become self reinforcing as more people turn their back on what previous generations have prized. Again it doesn't need to be very many of them to start with to have a big impact.

All in all, cracking post, not least because I am planning on selling one of those detached houses in North Wicklow in the spring!

Completely agree re. It being self reinforcing - every viewing we went in to in SCD after visiting our friends house in Wicklow became a bitter disappointment against our new point of comparison.

Looking forward to your house coming on sale - there is a serious lack of them at the moment!

PropQueries

PommieBast wrote: »

What amazes me is the number of properties that are so derelict they are practically being held intact by plant growth.

There are many but I’ve also noticed many have been refurbished over the past few years. Most likely due to being purchased during the 2012 to 2014 CGT breaks.

What amazes me is the number of new built A-rated apartments and houses that have remained vacant over the past few years.

DataDude

Hubertj wrote: »

You ain’t gettin 180m2 in booterstown for €900k!

Speaking of north Wicklow how long have you lived there? Do you think it is becoming or there is a risk of being over developed?

You’re right, I was being optimistic! The house insinuated in my post was in Fosterbrook (certainly not prime Booterstown), listed at a bit over 900k and might be a little under 180m2!

The first response I got when I asked for feedback was - ‘yeah it’s quite nice....South Dublin really is mad money though’. Not the type of response you want when looking to at a house that’s nearly €1m!

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

You ain’t gettin 180m2 in booterstown for €900k!

Speaking of north Wicklow how long have you lived there? Do you think it is becoming or there is a risk of being over developed?

Brought up in North Wicklow, left Ireland after college, missed all the excitement of the boom years, moved back to Ireland in 2012 and been living here since then.

There's definitely a risk of overdevelopment, but no more than anywhere else. In the case of Greystones I think it is a well identified enough risk that it will be managed well. Definitely no shortage of amenities/infrastructure. It's definitely overdeveloped in terms of coffee shops, but presumably that will correct itself in time!

Interestingly I read recently that Charlesland golf course has shut for good, so no doubt all that land will be developed. I suspect it will be earmarked to futureproof amenities and infrastructure as well as housing. They could make something very special as a seaside recreational space there too.

What is very noticeable is that it is a young town. A lot of young families/young children which is a nice vibe if you're at that stage of life yourself. This is why I have posted a few times about who is going to buy the semi ds in Goatstown etc. If young buyers - i.e current generation - are turning their back on them in favour of places like Greystones, they are going to stay in these places. Can guarantee you nobody who is living here is thinking I cannot wait until I can afford to trade up to a semi d in Goatstown/Booterstown/Dundrum wherever.

The longer current prices are maintained/rise, the more towns like Greystones get traction, and people get settled, and the less inclined they are to leave.

So it is left to future cohorts of FTBers/trader uppers - but at current prices where is that market going to come from?

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Completely agree re. It being self reinforcing - every viewing we went in to in SCD after visiting our friends house in Wicklow became a bitter disappointment against our new point of comparison.

Looking forward to your house coming on sale - there is a serious lack of them at the moment!

Where is your friend's new house?