2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Again you are flip flopping all.over the place. Previous post you stated it was older apartments that fall in value as yield would be too low not you are saying apartments being build will fall in value.

If we have inflation and wage inflation then building costs will not reduce. If that happen supply is reduced and we are back to square one

Inflation won't rise so much that wages will rise. The central banks will put a dampener on it long before any such increases in inflation would have a positive impact on wages, debt levels etc. If inflation does take off, companies here will very likely move to eastern EU countries even quicker IMO

All it takes is for central bank rates to rise to c. 3% and all those build-to-rent apartments no longer become viable at anywhere near current market valuations IMO

As I mentioned above, whoever in Government thought that the funds will solve our housing issues going forward really needs to draw up a real Plan B and quickly IMO, just in case this inflation isn't "transitory", which it may very well be, but it appears the markets are beginning to believe otherwise.

yagan

Hubertj wrote: »

I’d be interested to see your numbers on a surplus of units considering the difference between units being delivered and the forecasts of 30k + being published by the ESRI. didn’t the central bank say it could be even higher a couple of years back?

The closest to the true count of unoccupied is a census, but that's deferred this year due to Covid I believe.

The mister X had 600 euros home wage per week before Covid or 2400 euros per month
The mister X wife had 400 euros working in hospitality sector or 1600 euros per month
Pair pay rent 1200 euros per month
Due with lockdown mister X work place closed done and mister X income per week went to 350 euros PUP what is 1400 freshly printed money from ECB per month what is 1000 euros loss per month !
Sure due with closed pub he saved Extra as government said and because he did not go for holiday he saved another extra as government said
But in reality his incomes are Minus 1000 euros
The mister X wife Lost job in hospitality sector and her incomes went to 220 euros per week or 880 euros per month or Minus 720 euros per month
The couple lost 1720 euros per month
Were you see inflation guys when is huge deflation on way ?
Nobody know were savings will go guys ! Many people lost jobs and will have pay mortgages and rents.Many parents will have support kids rents and education because many lost jobs !
The Central bank officials already said 100K jobs lost already !
When government says 14 billions in savings will flow to the market and will move economy forward !
Nothing will go on market and there is no money for inflation !

Hubertj

yagan wrote: »

The closest to the true count of unoccupied is a census, but that's deferred this year due to Covid I believe.

I think the RTB register should be the main source of such information where landlords record such information.

These estates that were bulk bought, were on the market for a while and were not being sold.
Apartments in greystones, and houses in Dublin 15, obviously were not being sold, they were on the market long enough, then were sold in bulk.
I don't know about maynooth
So, why were they not being bought? Where are all the ftb for these new builds?

PropQueries

PropQueries wrote: »

Inflation won't rise so much that wages will rise. The central banks will put a dampener on it long before any such increases in inflation would have a positive impact on wages, debt levels etc. If inflation does take off, companies here will very likely move to eastern EU countries even quicker IMO

All it takes is for central bank rates to rise to c. 3% and all those build-to-rent apartments no longer become viable at anywhere near current market valuations IMO

As I mentioned above, whoever in Government thought that the funds will solve our housing issues going forward really needs to draw up a real Plan B and quickly IMO, just in case this inflation isn't "transitory", which it may very well be, but it appears the markets are beginning to believe otherwise.

There will be no wages rise because will be huge supply of cheap labor from South America.
The government will work heavily at labor import trying support business recovery
The bigger competition on jobs market the smaller the wages
The immigration will kick renting market and investment to property what is the same as building industry and mortgages
We will get cheap labor good rents good interest to invest to property higher property prices bigger VAT and the bigger the movement the bigger the inflation
But the lower the wage the less income what mean prices can not rise
This gonna be interesting
Because bringing cheap labor you put wages down and prices can not rise because people does not have good wages
Bring minimal wage to 12.50 per hour as Varadkar says ? Will this help business recovery ? Unless government will cover extra by wage support !
But will there enough money and for how long ? This is another question.
How heavy will be emigration ? This is another

Hubertj

bubblypop wrote: »

These estates that were bulk bought, were on the market for a while and were not being sold.
Apartments in greystones, and houses in Dublin 15, obviously were not being sold, they were on the market long enough, then were sold in bulk.
I don't know about maynooth
So, why were they not being bought? Where are all the ftb for these new builds?

I was asking that last week. According to the media reports there were a lot of buyers lined up for the estate in Maynooth. Also Something about h the planning strategy for the region meant there would be fewer and fewer houses built going forward.

yagan

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

There will be no wages rise because will be huge supply of cheap labor from South America.
The government will work heavily at labor import trying support business recovery
The bigger competition on jobs market the smaller the wages
The immigration will kick renting market and investment to property what is the same as building industry and mortgages
We will get cheap labor good rents good interest to invest to property higher property prices bigger VAT and the bigger the movement the bigger the inflation
But the lower the wage the less income what mean prices can not rise
This gonna be interesting
Because bringing cheap labor you put wages down and prices can not rise because people does not have good wages
Bring minimal wage to 12.50 per hour as Varadkar says ? Will this help business recovery ? Unless government will cover extra by wage support !
But will there enough money and for how long ? This is another question.
How heavy will be emigration ? This is another

In fairness I have to think back 20 years since I last met any Irish person working in a meat factory.

But you do have a point in that immigration has been influenced by the Fianna Fail/Fine Gael landlordism.

Well there will be inflation for sure
There will be wind turbines were government will invest billions of freshly printed ECB money
Nobody cares how much this will cost because this is main trend give voice for green politician and create jobs for unemployed people !
Once he is green he is all right how much this gonna cost who cares about the price when you save the Planet ?
Then your electricity bill will go from 200 to 600 euros but we need pay for the future ! We have to !
Then because electricity up the bread price will be up but the problem is that your wage will not up because there is at least 200 millions cheap labor happy work for small wage
When this will happen there will be huge mess on property market !
At the moment government work on bringing water charge again .
Well the future of property market in Ireland gonna be very interesting and far far way of what you are talking about it now.

Mic 1972

bubblypop wrote: »

These estates that were bulk bought, were on the market for a while and were not being sold.
Apartments in greystones, and houses in Dublin 15, obviously were not being sold, they were on the market long enough, then were sold in bulk.
I don't know about maynooth
So, why were they not being bought? Where are all the ftb for these new builds?

What houses in D15 weren't being sold? Any particular estate?

i'd like to know because i have been trying to buy in D15 for a while now, they all seem to go pretty quickly and for much higher than asking

yagan

yagan wrote: »

In fairness I have to think back 20 years since I last met any Irish person working in a meat factory.

But you do have a point in that immigration has been influenced by the Fianna Fail/Fine Gael landlordism.

When we get 1 emigrant away and 2 immigrants for same price in
We create higher demand and property price
We getting 1 emigrant which will earn money somewhere else and not claiming social welfare
Which will bring money to us buying house at home
And we have 2 worker immigrants for price of 1 emigrant which will pay rent and pay pensions to irish pensioners
This is the main model of irish building sector and investment from mid 90s

awec

bubblypop wrote: »

These estates that were bulk bought, were on the market for a while and were not being sold.
Apartments in greystones, and houses in Dublin 15, obviously were not being sold, they were on the market long enough, then were sold in bulk.
I don't know about maynooth
So, why were they not being bought? Where are all the ftb for these new builds?

The Greystones apartments were luxury, high end apartments. Almost no FTBs would have been buying those. You were talking 550-600k for a 2 bed apartment, the top floor apartments closer to a million.

3k a year fees too for owners.

I think Glenveagh misread the market for these at the time. The houses in marina village, as far as I know, sold with little issue.

The thing I always found odd about these apartments is for the price many of them offer almost zero privacy. They are right on the marina, on a very busy public walkway. It's a fairly big design flaw for properties at this price.

Timing belt

hmmm wrote: »

https://www.echo.ie/news/article/councillors-vote-unanimously-against-cookstown-castle-plans

Councilors vote unanimously to oppose a scheme with over 1,000 apartments.

I know nothing is perfect, but it seems to me councilors go out of their way to find reasons to object to things. The article quotes several reasons for objecting, including it being apartments and not for families (single people and couples need somewhere to live too), it not all being social housing (do we really want to go back to large social estates?), all for rent (not everyone wants to buy), putting pressure on the LUAS and Dublin bus (where else are we going to build?), and near the flight path to Baldonnel (ffs).

That made me laugh...flight path to Baldonnel...that can’t be a serious reason to object....if it is then whoever objected should be made fly into London City Airport

yagan

Hubertj wrote: »

I think the RTB register should be the main source of such information where landlords record such information.

I presume units built for the to let market but were never rented out wouldn't appear on that.

DataDude

awec wrote: »

The Greystones apartments were luxury, high end apartments. Almost no FTBs would have been buying those. You were talking 550-600k for a 2 bed apartment, the top floor apartments closer to a million.

3k a year fees too for owners.

I think Glenveagh misread the market for these at the time. The houses in marina village, as far as I know, sold with little issue.

The thing I always found odd about these apartments is for the price many of them offer almost zero privacy. They are right on the marina, on a very busy public walkway. It's a fairly big design flaw for properties at this price.

Don’t think that’s quite true on both counts. Still advertising the two beds at 475 (less 30k HTB). Not sure how that is if the German pension fund bought them all though.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/2-bed-apartment-marina-village-greystones-wicklow/4454040

Also, whilst the cheaper houses down the Marina sold quick enough (I think). I do remember them struggling to shift the last few in the more expensive ‘The Shore’. The show house was up at €1.2m for ages (was the most comically overpriced house of all time) but after nearly a year they cut it down to €900k and it sold.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

The Government's current policy of relying on pension funds etc. to keep buying build-to-rent apartments may be hitting a brick wall sooner than they think.

As reported today, the consumer price index in the states rose to 4.2% in April from a year earlier. I've noticed my local barbers haircut prices have increased from €20 to €30 so it's already here or on the way here IMO

And, according to the financial press today, many investors in the markets aren't believing the feds narrative that it's "transitory".

So, if those funds are currently seeking a yield of 3.5%, how's that going to work out for financing all these apartments should interest rates rise to e.g. 3% on this side of the atlantic assuming that this inflation isn't "transitory" and becomes a worldwide phenomenon?

Will they start demanding 6% - 7% which may then result in existing build-to-rent apartments falling in value by up to c. 50% or more even if current "market" rents etc. all remain the same?

How will all these apartments that the Government is relying on be built given what they have said they currently cost to build?

Was there not massive deflation this time last year? Comparing this year to last and saying inflation rose by 4% year on year is not a reliable indication of current inflation due to the base effect.

Hubertj

yagan wrote: »

I presume units built for the to let market but were never rented out wouldn't appear on that.

Sorry I should have been clearer. I think the RTB register should require all units to be registered on it so we know what the supply available is. Then when rented that is also reflected so we know the occupancy / vacancy rate.

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

What houses in D15 weren't being sold? Any particular estate?

i'd like to know because i have been trying to buy in D15 for a while now, they all seem to go pretty quickly and for much higher than asking

Yeah, that estate that was bought up, was it Bay meadows? Around hollystown area

awec

awec wrote: »

The Greystones apartments were luxury, high end apartments. Almost no FTBs would have been buying those. You were talking 550-600k for a 2 bed apartment, the top floor apartments closer to a million.

3k a year fees too for owners.

I think Glenveagh misread the market for these at the time. The houses in marina village, as far as I know, sold with little issue.

The thing I always found odd about these apartments is for the price many of them offer almost zero privacy. They are right on the marina, on a very busy public walkway. It's a fairly big design flaw for properties at this price.

Yeah, the houses too! Friend of mine bought a house in the beginning, first row, knowing the apartments would be build in front, walkway right in front of house! Everyone walking the coast road walks in front of his house, cost almost 700K. I thought it was mad.

Reins

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9kYXZpZG1jd2lsbGlhbXMubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M/episode/ZDEzZjMxNTEtOGI5NS00YTZkLWJiMTktMGYyY2ExNWE0ODYw?hl=en-IE&ved=2ahUKEwiI-s7x5cTwAhXksnEKHSrHA-cQjrkEegQIAxAF&ep=6

McWilliams tuppenny worth

State start buildings homes - Issue bonds for 100 years

awec

DataDude wrote: »

Don’t think that’s quite true on both counts. Still advertising the two beds at 475 (less 30k HTB). Not sure how that is if the German pension fund bought them all though.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/2-bed-apartment-marina-village-greystones-wicklow/4454040

Also, whilst the cheaper houses down the Marina sold quick enough (I think). I do remember them struggling to shift the last few in the more expensive ‘The Shore’. The show house was up at €1.2m for ages (was the most comically overpriced house of all time) but after nearly a year they cut it down to €900k and it sold.

I meant the original prices, they were big bucks.

awec

bubblypop wrote: »

Yeah, the houses too! Friend of mine bought a house in the beginning, first row, knowing the apartments would be build in front, walkway right in front of house! Everyone walking the coast road walks in front of his house, cost almost 700K. I thought it was mad.

Yea there's a row of houses just in front of the playground there that has the same issue. But it's not as bad as the apartments.

The apartments are so exposed you sometimes feel like you'd be rude not to say hello to someone sitting in their living room as you make eye contact when you walk past!

Mic 1972

bubblypop wrote: »

Yeah, that estate that was bought up, was it Bay meadows? Around hollystown area

that one? ok, yes that's a bit far out. I didn't know it hadn't sold but I'm not surprised

Villa05

The Irish Times are reporting that Gov are considering blocking local authorities from entering long term lease deals with investment funds

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

The Irish Times are reporting that Gov are considering blocking local authorities from entering long term lease deals with investment funds

It would be interesting to see which political parties at a local level have been approving these leases.

PropQueries

Leo Varadkar has told the FG parliamentary party meeting tonight that the local property taxes will be revised:

“While carbon taxes would rise and the local property tax would be revised, he said, the Government should not “concede” to increases to income taxes”

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/half-of-ireland-s-corporate-tax-receipts-could-be-wiped-out-imf-warns-1.4563390

Hubertj

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/12-zion-road-rathgar-dublin-6/4499162

Would you need another €1m to renovate and extend this? Could be a cracking gaff if done properly.

derekgine3

Mic 1972 wrote: »

that one? ok, yes that's a bit far out. I didn't know it hadn't sold but I'm not surprised

That whole area is a future hellhole in the making, huge amount of social housing with very little nearby.


My daughter lived in D15 for years and had to leave due to how bad the area got. Not surprised some stock couldn't be shifted.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Leo Varadkar has told the FG parliamentary party meeting tonight that the local property taxes will be revised:

“While carbon taxes would rise and the local property tax would be revised, he said, the Government should not “concede” to increases to income taxes”

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/half-of-ireland-s-corporate-tax-receipts-could-be-wiped-out-imf-warns-1.4563390

He's doing SF a big favour if he increases taxes, particularly on property, given SF were the only party with tax reduction in their platform at the last election and it was property taxes they were aiming at.

Interested Observer

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/12-zion-road-rathgar-dublin-6/4499162

Would you need another €1m to renovate and extend this? Could be a cracking gaff if done properly.

Think 1m is a bit much, the house isn't huge, think I heard on the radio recently the going rate for a renovation is about 2k-2.5k per sqm.

Edit - I blanked on the "and extend" bit of your post. Then yeah you're getting there I guess. House needs to be done from top to bottom.