2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

fliball123

bubblypop wrote: »

You keep on repeating this but it is not true. Not everyone selling a property will be buying another one

And I have shown that we will still have more demand

More immigration inwards is still greater than migration outwards
more births than deaths over the last 100 years even with Covid
1/2 Million more in population size to house over the last 10 years and not enough houses to match that being built.

So to counter your logic which while it could be true and cant be measured the logic of that there will be a lot more people who don't have anything to sell (FTBs, immigrants) so adding zero to supply who will want to buy will far out weigh the supply side your logic supports.

Then throw in the amount of people who have split up over the last year who will know need 2 places to reside instead of 1 and while all of these may not end up buying it will still take a property that is needed to house the unwashed masses ergo making supply tighter.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/solicitor-sees-up-to-30-rise-in-separation-and-divorce-cases-arising-from-covid-1.4421546

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/pandemic-divorces-because-of-lockdown-they-can-t-tolerate-it-any-longer-1.4549890?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Flife-and-style%2Fhealth-family%2Fpandemic-divorces-because-of-lockdown-they-can-t-tolerate-it-any-longer-1.4549890

https://www.rte.ie/lifestyle/living/2021/0302/1200376-has-there-been-a-rise-in-divorce-inquiries-since-covid-19/

So tell me what is not true about the statement. You have said this time and again and never provided anything to back yourself up. The only thing to help supply is people building at a rate that will outstrip the demand that is currently there and that has been built up over years now

jill_valentine

derekgine3 wrote: »

At what stage is peak lunacy realized and there is mass protests in the streets?

My Daughter and son in-law have been actively searching for over a year and some of the properties they send me a horrendous. These are also in areas that i would consider not that desirable.

Is it when the average 3 bed in Dublin is 500k but wages have not grown to match will people take notice? 600, 700k? How much further can this prices rise before it gets ugly.

I honestly think most younger workers just feel defeated at this stage. They've been screaming from (their landlord's) rooftops about this for years, did the protests, did the voting, did the campaigning, did the letters, did all the stuff they were meant to do to raise it as an issue.... nothing changed, and they don't believe it's going to anymore.

A lot of my social media circle are expressing bewilderment more than anger right now, about why the Maynooth thing created such a fuss, when it was just a fact of life for us that this was what happened from now on and we won't be able to buy anything.

I remember the last round of big protests, and the sit ins, and the stuff around that shady eviction with the weird nordie lads, people really did feel like there was finally some traction and something might improve... and then it didn't even stay on Joe Duffy longer than a few days.

We were told we just needed to work harder or be a bit more creative or flexible or whatever, no matter how many times we explained the stuff wasn't available to us to be bought, but then it just went to the background again.

I think after that this generation mostly resigned themselves to emigrating or hoping for the best when mam and dad pass on. The fact the scale of the problem is remerging now, as if it's a shock to anyone when it's been a defining feature of our adult lives, mostly just feels surreal and a little blackly amusing.

fliball123

jill_valentine wrote: »

I honestly think most younger workers just feel defeated at this stage. They've been screaming from (their landlord's) rooftops about this for years, did the protests, did the voting, did the campaigning, did the letters, did all the stuff they were meant to do to raise it as an issue.... nothing changed, and they don't believe it's going to anymore.

A lot of my social media circle are expressing bewilderment more than anger right now, about why the Maynooth thing created such a fuss, when it was just a fact of life for us that this was what happened from now on and we won't be able to buy anything.

I remember the last round of big protests, and the sit ins, and the stuff around that shady eviction with the weird nordie lads, people really did feel like there was finally some traction and something might improve... and then it didn't even stay on Joe Duffy longer than a few days.

We were told we just needed to work harder or be a bit more creative or flexible or whatever, no matter how many times we explained the stuff wasn't available to us to be bought, but then it just went to the background again.

I think after that this generation mostly resigned themselves to emigrating or hoping for the best when mam and dad pass on. The fact the scale of the problem is remerging now, as if it's a shock to anyone when it's been a defining feature of our adult lives, mostly just surreal and blackly amusing.

Its a hard situation to be in but the government have not been listening for years over a whole plethora of issues. Get used to it as its like being in a big company your just a number to them.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

But isn’t it ok to let out your gaff for a limited number of days per year vs Airbnb full time? Does Airbnb make that difference? For example, my friend would Airbnb his house every august when he goes away on holiday. Or does the listing say those gaffs are available year round?

Sure it’s ok. Up to 90 days. Maybe less not sure

I’d say only a handful tick that box.

ElektroToad

fliball123 wrote: »

Its a hard situation to be in but the government have not been listening for years over a whole plethora of issues. Get used to it as its like being in a big company your just a number to them.

Past that point. Plenty in my generation are fed up being forgotten about on this area.

I'll be very very tempted taking the nuclear option and voting SF.

FG had over a decade to make it easier for young professionals like myself to afford a house or half decent apartment. I'd feel like a f***ing idiot to vote for them again unless they manage to pull a miracle within the next 3 years

fliball123

ElektroToad wrote: »

Past that point. Plenty in my generation are fed up being forgotten about on this area.

I'll be very very tempted taking the nuclear option and voting SF.

FG had over a decade to make it easier for young professionals like myself to afford a house or half decent apartment. I'd feel like a f***ing idiot to vote for them again unless they manage to pull a miracle within the next 3 years

The problem I see and even if you do vote SF is our current debt and borrowing. There is also a very serious threat of our corporation tax being reduced by half in the coming years, as well as loony decisions of giving 3 pay rises to the public sector the first already been given and 2 more to come. Add in income tax at the middle and higher tax payers have been paying over 50% of any penny earned over the AIW. Yet they have 23Billion for welfare and are able to give tax breaks to REITS/Vulture funds and are able to get away with entering into 25 year leases with them for rents.

What your looking for will cost money so to get what your want someone else in the system will have to pay for it. I have no bother with that once my income tax is not raised I am paying more than enough like a lot of others and getting very little in return for it. This may seem self serving you will no doubt hear the public sector saying dont go near our pay rises or pay and same goes with welfare and their payouts. So what do we do the IMF are already breathing down our necks. It might be good for them to come back in and make the current government make the hard decisions again like after 08 but that means the economy is in the sh1tter and I am hoping once covid is gone the economy will bounce back but that's more of a fingers crossed.

It is going to be an interesting decade how they manage the ship I can see SF getting in but I am afraid that they will do the same to you as FF/FG/Labour/ The Greens. They all have the same thing in common "They are all politicians" and in this country there is no financial reprimand for those in power who dont follow through on the promises they made which got them elected in the first place. Until this changes nothing will. That one change where a politician who reneges on the promises that got them in there should have their pensions taken off them to start with.

ElektroToad

Totally agree with what you are saying. Voting SF carries with it potential that they will implement a number of nonsense policies that wouldn't be in my (or the country's) best interest at all. Especially if they end up bringing the looney left onboard to form a majority

But I'd think you'd also agree that housing is a very important, personal and emotive issue, hence why I figure more voters are gonna take a punt on SF regardless

But I digress...

In the meantime, I'll keep looking at daft.ie and wonder is it only a matter of time before we are looking at 400k+ for a 3-bed in Darndale? :pac:

yagan

fliball123 wrote: »

The problem I see and even if you do vote SF is our current debt and borrowing. There is also a very serious threat of our corporation tax being reduced by half in the coming years, as well as loony decisions of giving 3 pay rises to the public sector the first already been given and 2 more to come. Add in income tax at the middle and higher tax payers have been paying over 50% of any penny earned over the AIW. Yet they have 23Billion for welfare and are able to give tax breaks to REITS/Vulture funds and are able to get away with entering into 25 year leases with them for rents.

What your looking for will cost money so to get what your want someone else in the system will have to pay for it. I have no bother with that once my income tax is not raised I am paying more than enough like a lot of others and getting very little in return for it. This may seem self serving you will no doubt hear the public sector saying dont go near our pay rises or pay and same goes with welfare and their payouts. So what do we do the IMF are already breathing down our necks. It might be good for them to come back in and make the current government make the hard decisions again like after 08 but that means the economy is in the sh1tter and I am hoping once covid is gone the economy will bounce back but that's more of a fingers crossed.

It is going to be an interesting decade how they manage the ship I can see SF getting in but I am afraid that they will do the same to you as FF/FG/Labour/ The Greens. They all have the same thing in common "They are all politicians" and in this country there is no financial reprimand for those in power who dont follow through on the promises they made which got them elected in the first place. Until this changes nothing will. That one change where a politician who reneges on the promises that got them in there should have their pensions taken off them to start with.

All very valid points, but the current trajectory of pricing younger generations out of home formation now isn't going to help older generations later, and I think that's why the Maynooth purchase was such a live wire.

Funds had been buying up apartments before, but the comfortable majority with low or no mortgage had no affinity with apartments. But once the average family home started being bought up for long term lease they suddenly twigged that their own kids might never be able to live nearby etc.. and even those homeowners without kids realised that such a fund could buy the house next door and move in the family from hell!

As for pensions, that's going to be a problem for all western governments in the immediate future so a bust there won't just be an Irish problem, but it will spurn reformed expectations of what's possible for later life and that's going to social solidarity that the current government can not command.

FFG do not have the respect of the middle voter, especially after the Maynooth purchase.

PropQueries

Interesting exchanges in the Dail today:

"Mr Varadkar said Sinn Féin opposed housing developments at local council level because they involve private ownership elements. You are anti-enterprise, anti-private property, and anti-private home ownership."

How much land do the councils own in Co. Dublin? All of it? As otherwise, why would we allow private developers to build on and profit from taxpayer owned land by selling to private buyers?

I would assume most of the current residentially zoned landbanks with planning permission in Co. Dublin are owned by private developers/funds. Why would we give them what limited land we have as well on top of it?

That's not anti whatever Varadkar is on about. That's common sense IMO

Or, am I missing something here?

Link to article in the Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/sinn-f%C3%A9in-anti-private-property-claims-varadkar-1.4564137

Browney7

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting exchanges in the Dail today:

"Mr Varadkar said Sinn Féin opposed housing developments at local council level because they involve private ownership elements. You are anti-enterprise, anti-private property, and anti-private home ownership."

How much land do the councils own in Co. Dublin? All of it? As otherwise, why would we allow private developers to build on and profit from taxpayer owned land by selling to private buyers?

I would assume most of the current residentially zoned landbanks with planning permission in Co. Dublin are owned by private developers/funds. Why would we give them what limited land we have as well on top of it?

That's not anti whatever Varadkar is on about. That's common sense IMO

Or, am I missing something here?

Link to article in the Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/sinn-f%C3%A9in-anti-private-property-claims-varadkar-1.4564137

He also stated almost 1/3rd of new property built by the state. I expect this should have said "for the state" through part 5 acquisition or AHBs buying large blocks of estates already built.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

What was our capacity to build in 2014? How many houses could we build per year vs how many we actually built?

I don't know, but nama had the UK portfolio sold by then if I remember correctly so cash was coming in and the UK market had recovered most of the decreases by then especially London

Nama had significant Dublin landbanks and its called a management agency not a disposal agency. If you wanted to, it would have been a great time to implement a cost plus rental market. It could target employees working In essential services and new public servants that were thrown under the bus by the recovery pay deals
The activity could have helped in keeping construction workers here and speeded up the recovery in a sustainable fashion and self financing

There was also the episode in which nama sold a development close to tallaght hospital consisting of 300 1, 2 and 3 bed apartment plus commercial units at an average price of 100k a pop. I got pulled several times here for using as an example but my god we had issues hiring nurses for the hospital due to rent prices in the area and the lower starting salaries for the nurses

An incredible own goal, its as if they set out to make things as difficult as possible for our young people

Here we are 5 to 6 years on and the replacement cost of those apartments is half a million each when the state needs them

yagan

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting exchanges in the Dail today:

"Mr Varadkar said Sinn Féin opposed housing developments at local council level because they involve private ownership elements. You are anti-enterprise, anti-private property, and anti-private home ownership."

How much land do the councils own in Co. Dublin? All of it? As otherwise, why would we allow private developers to build on and profit from taxpayer owned land by selling to private buyers?

I would assume most of the current residentially zoned landbanks with planning permission in Co. Dublin are owned by private developers/funds. Why would we give them what limited land we have as well on top of it?

That's not anti whatever Varadkar is on about. That's common sense IMO

Or, am I missing something here?

Link to article in the Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/sinn-f%C3%A9in-anti-private-property-claims-varadkar-1.4564137

Varadkar projects a lot onto SF, and an awful lot of the land under development now was NAMA anyway.

He's scrapping the barrel.

DubCount

fliball123 wrote: »

The problem I see and even if you do vote SF is our current debt and borrowing.....

That is the real issue. Its easy to promise everything to everybody when you are in opposition and dont have to pay for it. Building social housing, housing subsidies to ensure "affordable" housing (whatever that means), and all the other promises cost real money.

The "let the rich people pay" approach just doesnt work, as there are not enough Millionaires to fleece, and they're probably well able to move to a different country if we try to stick the knife in too deep. More tax on working families or cuts to social welfare/services is the real way this is paid for - and thats just not a message you want to state when you're trying to be popular.

As for the "ban evictions" brigade, this kind of action only reduces supply and panders to the "wont pay" merchants.

If there was an easy answer, someone would have done it already.

PropQueries

Browney7 wrote: »

He also stated almost 1/3rd of new property built by the state. I expect this should have said "for the state" through part 5 acquisition or AHBs buying large blocks of estates already built.

Even if someone is not impacted in any way by this housing issue, I think watching these childish exchanges should make everyone worried about the capabilities of the current Government IMO

These people also manage our health service, emergency services, security services etc. etc. It's getting a bit worrisome to be honest.

Hubertj

yagan wrote: »

Varadkar projects a lot onto SF, and an awful lot of the land under development now was NAMA anyway.

He's scrapping the barrel.

Agreed. Doherty is talking through his hole 75% of the time but the government doesn’t have a leg to stand on anyway.

Amadan Dubh

With the covid news getting less prominent day by day (it appears there have been 0 deaths which have actually occurred in May, from my reading of the daily Journal.ie articles), there is going to be nothing to crowd out the housing crisis in the news, unless the government had the gall to try to paint the economic recovery post-covid, with increased GDP and the inevitable further rent and house price increases, as an opportunity to tax the people more in order to start to pay for the covid borrowing. It looks like housing is front and centre by itself for the foreseeable future, but I think it will probably bring down the government this year.

yagan

<SNIP>

Mod Note

take it to the conspiracy theory forum please.

Do not reply to this post.

Amadan Dubh

Another retailer on the main shopping street of the capital bites the dust (Carphone Warehouse last month).

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/tommy-hilfiger-on-grafton-street-to-close-permanently-1.4564343

Tommy Hilfiger on Grafton Street to close permanently

US fashion retailer exercises break option in lease 12 months early and pays €1.7m rent due

Contacted for comment on Tommy Hilfiger’s decision to vacate its Grafton Street premises, a spokesperson for the retailer said: “In line with our strategic objective to further reach and engage with our consumers, we are focusing on next-generation retail experiences to stay ahead of continuously-changing shopping behaviours."

Although 13-14 Grafton Street will be expected to attract interest from a number of prospective occupiers following Tommy Hilfiger’s departure, the rent achievable for the property is likely to be significantly lower than that agreed at the height of the boom.

In January of this year, Hugo Boss secured a 24 per cent reduction on its previous rent of €825,000, when it signed a new 10-year lease on its own flagship premises at 67/68 Grafton Street.

PropQueries

DubCount wrote: »

That is the real issue. Its easy to promise everything to everybody when you are in opposition and dont have to pay for it. Building social housing, housing subsidies to ensure "affordable" housing (whatever that means), and all the other promises cost real money.

The "let the rich people pay" approach just doesnt work, as there are not enough Millionaires to fleece, and they're probably well able to move to a different country if we try to stick the knife in too deep. More tax on working families or cuts to social welfare/services is the real way this is paid for - and thats just not a message you want to state when you're trying to be popular.

As for the "ban evictions" brigade, this kind of action only reduces supply and panders to the "wont pay" merchants.

If there was an easy answer, someone would have done it already.

I think the Government collected c. €80 Billion in 2019 (the only comparable year). Below is the link to the "Social Welfare" budget.

I would be interested in anybody explaining to me on what they would cut there that would even come close to plugging that IMF potential predicted €6 Billion annual hole from the international tax reforms? And, remember, people pay PRSI for a reason.

I would think looking at the whole €80 Billion to see where real cuts could be made would be a better starting point IMO

We also had an unemployment rate of less than 5% in 2019, which from what I remember was called below full employment many years ago. And, no matter what a persons viewpoint is on social housing, they still need to be housed.

Link to 2019 welfare spend here: https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/2019/

MacronvFrugals

ElektroToad wrote: »

Totally agree with what you are saying. Voting SF carries with it potential that they will implement a number of nonsense policies that wouldn't be in my (or the country's) best interest at all. Especially if they end up bringing the looney left onboard to form a majority

But I'd think you'd also agree that housing is a very important, personal and emotive issue, hence why I figure more voters are gonna take a punt on SF regardless

But I digress...

In the meantime, I'll keep looking at daft.ie and wonder is it only a matter of time before we are looking at 400k+ for a 3-bed in Darndale? :pac:

I'm mid 20s and extremely lucky to be earning 65k working in tech, if people like me aren't voting FF/FG then who will? They have a serious problem looming with the 18-35s if the polls and bookies are to be believed.


As an aside too many (mostly) young people have been left behind as they're not connected to the FDI tax haven parts of the economy, this will eventually come home to roost!

yagan

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

It looks like housing is front and centre by itself for the foreseeable future, but I think it will probably bring down the government this year.

It's almost like the pandemic was a detour and we're right back to the pre election issues, including a vastly longer hospital waiting queue!

combat14

Half of State’s corporate tax receipts could be wiped out, warns IMF

The introduction of a minimum global corporate tax rate could – in an “extreme scenario” – wipe out half of Ireland’s €11.8 billion corporate tax base, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/half-of-state-s-corporate-tax-receipts-could-be-wiped-out-warns-imf-1.4563390?mode=amp



looks once again as if the states tax base is built on a house of cards - one would have to wonder where the missing 6 billion annually in taxes would come from???


i hope those borrowing to the max to pay for nose bleed house prices remember 2006-2008 and how quickly this country's fortunes can turn on a dice

AlmightyCushion

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting exchanges in the Dail today:

"Mr Varadkar said Sinn Féin opposed housing developments at local council level because they involve private ownership elements. You are anti-enterprise, anti-private property, and anti-private home ownership."

How much land do the councils own in Co. Dublin? All of it? As otherwise, why would we allow private developers to build on and profit from taxpayer owned land by selling to private buyers?

I would assume most of the current residentially zoned landbanks with planning permission in Co. Dublin are owned by private developers/funds. Why would we give them what limited land we have as well on top of it?

That's not anti whatever Varadkar is on about. That's common sense IMO

Or, am I missing something here?

Link to article in the Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/sinn-f%C3%A9in-anti-private-property-claims-varadkar-1.4564137

Well, their own housing spokesperson opposed a social housing development for a start. If Sinn Fein want council land to be be built on by the council instead of private developers then why didn't they do that when they were the largest party in DCC? Also, my understanding is that the developer buys the land, builds on it, and some of the houses go to the council and affordable housing schemes. It might not be perfect but it doesn't sound like a bad idea and the alternative is that the site stays empty and nothing gets build there.

Then there are the private developments on land owned by the developer that councillors are opposing to appease the NIMBYs.

Marius34

combat14 wrote: »

Half of State’s corporate tax receipts could be wiped out, warns IMF

The introduction of a minimum global corporate tax rate could – in an “extreme scenario” – wipe out half of Ireland’s €11.8 billion corporate tax base, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/half-of-state-s-corporate-tax-receipts-could-be-wiped-out-warns-imf-1.4563390?mode=amp



looks once again as if the states tax base is built on a house of cards - one would have to wonder where the missing 6 billion annually in taxes would come from???


i hope those borrowing to the max to pay for nose bleed house prices remember 2006-2008 and how quickly this country's fortunes can turn on a dice

As situation is very different from credit crisis, this time I would be more worried for the people not being able to buy property.

yagan

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Well, their own housing spokesperson opposed a social housing development for a start. If Sinn Fein want council land to be be built on by the council instead of private developers then why didn't they do that when they were the largest party in DCC? Also, my understanding is that the developer buys the land, builds on it, and some of the houses go to the council and affordable housing schemes. It might not be perfect but it doesn't sound like a bad idea and the alternative is that the site stays empty and nothing gets build there.

Then there are the private developments on land owned by the developer that councillors are opposing to appease the NIMBYs.

There were social housing caveats for developers during the bubble years but rather than mixing the developer would stick the social housing element in some far flung corner of the site, or on a completely separate plot so as not diminish their private sales.

As the banks were giving everyone loans beyond their means many developers simply gave up pretending and simply didn't bother as no one was chasing them on it at the time.

I can't remember which development it was on the docks but the developer got away with putting the social housing element over 5Km away on another site.

L1011

Capital Docks social element was supplied at a Clancy Quay by consent of the council as the units are much cheaper there

The Tiger era thing was to buy the requirement out for cash instead. That isn't allowed now.

combat14

Marius34 wrote: »

As situation is very different from credit crisis, this time I would be more worried for the people not being able to buy property.

well if that persists many of them will just leave the country or else there will eventually be civil unrest here

cnocbui

combat14 wrote: »

Half of State’s corporate tax receipts could be wiped out, warns IMF

The introduction of a minimum global corporate tax rate could – in an “extreme scenario” – wipe out half of Ireland’s €11.8 billion corporate tax base, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/half-of-state-s-corporate-tax-receipts-could-be-wiped-out-warns-imf-1.4563390?mode=amp



looks once again as if the states tax base is built on a house of cards - one would have to wonder where the missing 6 billion annually in taxes would come from???


i hope those borrowing to the max to pay for nose bleed house prices remember 2006-2008 and how quickly this country's fortunes can turn on a dice

The same IMF that's urging one of the most indebted states in the OECD, to borrow lots more money and to increase tax on workers to fund social housing, despite them already being heavily taxed in order counter the very low corporate tax.

fliball123

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I'm mid 20s and extremely lucky to be earning 65k working in tech, if people like me aren't voting FF/FG then who will? They have a serious problem looming with the 18-35s if the polls and bookies are to be believed.


As an aside too many (mostly) young people have been left behind as they're not connected to the FDI tax haven parts of the economy, this will eventually come home to roost!

I think you will learn are you go on in your life that they are all the same the problem isnt who wont vote for them. Its there is no alternative as politicians do not have to be held to their word. We hear the argument but they will be voted out in 4 years time , yes they may well be but they will get some other job within government such as on the councils, seanad, etc. Its very rare for a politician just to leave politics after they are voted out of power and of course they walk away with a handsome pension. So they can spend 4 years screwing us over breaking promises (USC temporary tax anyone) and walk away with more money than the average Joe could ever dream about. Until this changes nothing will. Sinn Fein are waffling about what they will do. Ever notice its rare they bring numbers in and no politician thinks about the knock on consequences to a decision they make and the income tax payer always gets it in the neck

mcsean2163

JimmyVik wrote: »

Where?

We'd be in a position where the government and funds could not buy the Airbnb houses and competition between FTBs, government and funds would have been even more fierce and invisible due to covid19.