2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

MacronvFrugals

Cyrus wrote: »

hardly relevant, someone on the average salary wont be buying it.

If its for sale since 2012 like another poster mentioned, i don't think anyone's buying it.

Cyrus

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

If its for sale since 2012 like another poster mentioned, i don't think anyone's buying it.

someone will buy it eventually but it wont be someone on 40k a year

MacronvFrugals

Cyrus wrote: »

someone will buy it eventually but it wont be someone on 40k a year

Villa05

Cyrus wrote:

hardly relevant, someone on the average salary wont be buying it.

The degree of setting expectations of the cost of renovations sky high was my point rather than who is going to buyit

PropQueries

According to the SBP:

“Properties on Henry Street and Grafton Street lost between a quarter and a third of their value during 2020, with rents down by up to 21 per cent.”

Isn’t it Irish Life who own a good few of the units on those streets? I think they’re tough negotiators in relation to rents so I wonder will they be taking a more lenient approach going forward?

Link to SBP article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/property-insight/value-of-grafton-street-stores-fell-by-a-quarter-in-2020-2b7cb1de

PropQueries

Not sure if this was in the original plan or if it’s down to requiring less future office space due to WFH, but, according to the Irish Independent:

“Tech giant Google has secured planning permission to transform ground floors of two of its towers at its €300m development at Boland’s Mill into a market-place to facilitate local food and craft businesses.”

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/google-gets-green-light-to-build-new-urban-quarter-40029003.html

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

The degree of setting expectations of the cost of renovations sky high was my point rather than who is going to buyit

I’m not sure what exactly your point is.

PropQueries

PropQueries wrote: »

Not sure if this was in the original plan or if it’s down to requiring less future office space due to WFH, but, according to the Irish Independent:

“Tech giant Google has secured planning permission to transform ground floors of two of its towers at its €300m development at Boland’s Mill into a market-place to facilitate local food and craft businesses.”

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/google-gets-green-light-to-build-new-urban-quarter-40029003.html

Just to follow up on this. Last November, it was reported that:

"Google is to offer 46 apartments it acquired as part of the Bolands Mills development in Dublin city centre to key workers in the local area at a reduced rent... But prospective tenants will have to wait another while for their homes. The Bolands Mills scheme was scheduled for completion in the first quarter of 2020 but will now not be ready until the end of 2022."

Between today's article and the article from last November, it appears Google is planning on having both less pre-covid projected office space and less pre-covid projected international travel between Dublin and their other worldwide bases going forward.

Link to article on Google's plans for their apartments from last November: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/google-to-offer-46-bolands-mills-apartments-to-key-workers-at-reduced-rent-1.4413749

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Just to follow up on this. Last November, it was reported that:

"Google is to offer 46 apartments it acquired as part of the Bolands Mills development in Dublin city centre to key workers in the local area at a reduced rent... But prospective tenants will have to wait another while for their homes. The Bolands Mills scheme was scheduled for completion in the first quarter of 2020 but will now not be ready until the end of 2022."

Between today's article and the article from last November, it appears Google is planning on having both less pre-covid projected office space and less pre-covid projected international travel between Dublin and their other worldwide bases going forward.

Link to article on Google's plans for their apartments from last November: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/google-to-offer-46-bolands-mills-apartments-to-key-workers-at-reduced-rent-1.4413749

Where are you seeing they project less travel between offices ?

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Just to follow up on this. Last November, it was reported that:

"Google is to offer 46 apartments it acquired as part of the Bolands Mills development in Dublin city centre to key workers in the local area at a reduced rent... But prospective tenants will have to wait another while for their homes. The Bolands Mills scheme was scheduled for completion in the first quarter of 2020 but will now not be ready until the end of 2022."

Between today's article and the article from last November, it appears Google is planning on having both less pre-covid projected office space and less pre-covid projected international travel between Dublin and their other worldwide bases going forward.

Link to article on Google's plans for their apartments from last November: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/google-to-offer-46-bolands-mills-apartments-to-key-workers-at-reduced-rent-1.4413749

But, you said months ago Google and all the other MNCs will be leaving, gone! They'll ride off into the sunset and property will be crashed back to 08.

These articles go against that, does it not?.

It is also quite similar it seems to what google have done in other bases such as SF, where they have a mix of office, housing and recreational areas.

Doesn't scream to me that they are looking to exit Ireland, as you have previously predicted.

Hubertj

TheSheriff wrote: »

But, you said months ago Google and all the other MNCs will be leaving, gone! They'll ride off into the sunset and property will be crashed back to 08.

These articles go against that, does it not?.

It is also quite similar it seems to what google have done in other bases such as SF, where they have a mix of office, housing and recreational areas.

Doesn't scream to me that they are looking to exit Ireland, as you have previously predicted.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/more-jobs-expected-as-google-sets-up-safety-engineering-centre-locally-1.4469197?mode=amp

Minimum 200 jobs based on information I have

Timing belt

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/more-jobs-expected-as-google-sets-up-safety-engineering-centre-locally-1.4469197?mode=amp

Minimum 200 jobs based on information I have

Why aren't they opening this up in Eastern Europe wages are cheaper there.... Oh wait I have worked it out they will have the jobs in Dublin and the staff will WFH in Greece.. oh wait that is not allowed so something else will crash the housing market.

TheSheriff

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/more-jobs-expected-as-google-sets-up-safety-engineering-centre-locally-1.4469197?mode=amp

Minimum 200 jobs based on information I have

Thanks, hadn't seen that. Great news.

Ain't it odd how those prolific posters on this thread never seem pick up on these "MNC creates more jobs in Dublin" headlines. But when same MNC says they want to create a market place/area, to presumably further attract people to the brand/location etc. etc. it is spun as "they are shutting down shop, get ready!".

One year on from when all this started it's become farcical.

Hubertj

TheSheriff wrote: »

Thanks, hadn't seen that. Great news.

Ain't it odd how those prolific posters on this thread never seem pick up on these "MNC creates more jobs in Dublin" headlines. But when same MNC says they want to create a market place/area, to presumably further attract people to the brand/location etc. etc. it is spun as "they are shutting down shop, get ready!".

One year on from when all this started it's become farcical.

Announcements like this are also good for the domestic economy and the recovery. I think IDA figures showed that for every 10 MNC jobs created they support 7.5 jobs in domestic economy

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

Announcements like this are also good for the domestic economy and the recovery. I think IDA figures showed that for every 10 MNC jobs created they support 7.5 jobs in domestic economy

Strangely enough a well run housing market is incredibly good for the domestic economy.

Weird how we do so well on one factor and so dismally poor on the other

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

Announcements like this are also good for the domestic economy and the recovery. I think IDA figures showed that for every 10 MNC jobs created they support 7.5 jobs in domestic economy

I suppose the scary conclusion to your point is that it also works in reverse i.e. for every multinational job we lose, we're losing a total of c. 2 jobs i.e. one multinational job and the one domestic job dependent upon that one multinational job.

The British chancellor has already signaled he's looking seriously at raising corporation taxes to meet their cost of covid-19.

While some will go "that's great", more jobs for us. I look at it differently. Those new OECD global tax rules due to be completed by the middle of this year are yet to be finalised.

If the bigger economies are looking at increasing their corporation taxes to meet these covid costs, their not going to be too eager to allow too many loopholes in those tax reforms to enable countries like Ireland to continue to take advantage.

They will most likely take another, much closer look at what they have already agreed in principle to date IMO

Another example, is the UK is currently looking seriously at how to get many of those fund admin etc. jobs in Ireland and Luxembourg back to the UK.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

I suppose the scary conclusion to your point is that it also works in reverse i.e. for every multinational job we lose, we're losing a total of c. 2 jobs i.e. one multinational job and the one domestic job dependent upon that one multinational job.

Yet again rounding up your figures for no reason but to make it look worse.

The British chancellor has already signaled he's looking seriously at raising corporation taxes to meet their cost of covid-19.

While some will go "that's great", more jobs for us. I look at it differently. Those new OECD global tax rules due to be completed by the middle of this year are yet to be finalised.

The OECD have also warned counties about increase taxes or any form of austerity at the moment... it might be worth mentioning that also.

if the bigger economies are looking at increasing their corporation taxes to meet these covid costs

Source please or this just a prop assumption

Another example, is the UK is currently looking seriously at how to get many of those fund admin etc. jobs in Ireland and Luxembourg back to the UK.

Can you also please explain how this will work as I am curious to see your explanation as I suspect it will show that you don't have a clue as to why these roles are in certain countries and not in others... Sure it would be cheaper in Eastern Europe!!!! oh wait that would restrict customers from x, y & Z from investing in the fund.... but that has noting to do with it as it is only about cost or tax being lower.. As I say Source please and if no source at least go away and spend sometime understanding what you are talking about

Hubertj

Timing belt wrote: »

Yet again rounding up your figures for no reason but to make it look worse.


The OECD have also warned counties about increase taxes or any form of austerity at the moment... it might be worth mentioning that also.


Source please or this just a prop assumption


Can you also please explain how this will work as I am curious to see your explanation as I suspect it will show that you don't have a clue as to why these roles are in certain countries and not in others... Sure it would be cheaper in Eastern Europe!!!! oh wait that would restrict customers from x, y & Z from investing in the fund.... but that has noting to do with it as it is only about cost or tax being lower.. As I say Source please and if no source at least go away and spend sometime understanding what you are talking about

Where I work they have forecast OECD tax changes into future employment decisions for Ireland. Amazingly they are still hiring. I don’t understand how people think businesses aren’t already considering future tax changes.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

Yet again rounding up your figures for no reason but to make it look worse.


The OECD have also warned counties about increase taxes or any form of austerity at the moment... it might be worth mentioning that also.


Source please or this just a prop assumption


Can you also please explain how this will work as I am curious to see your explanation as I suspect it will show that you don't have a clue as to why these roles are in certain countries and not in others... Sure it would be cheaper in Eastern Europe!!!! oh wait that would restrict customers from x, y & Z from investing in the fund.... but that has noting to do with it as it is only about cost or tax being lower.. As I say Source please and if no source at least go away and spend sometime understanding what you are talking about

Regarding the UK looking at targeting our fund admin jobs. According to FT 4 days ago:

“The Treasury said leaving the EU presented an opportunity to re-examine the approach to charging VAT on fund management services, which has created an incentive for asset managers to domicile funds outside of the UK in countries such as Ireland and Luxembourg.”

Link to FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/7c916f56-447f-4eac-aa17-1eab3add7ef6

In relation to chancellor looking at increasing UK corporation tax, according to the FT last week:

“Rishi Sunak risks clash with business over proposed corporation tax rise UK chancellor believes it fair to ask for more after taxpayer support during pandemic.”

Link to that FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/ef8d075a-17b4-45cd-bda3-aab5e59062dc

MacronvFrugals

First-time buyers increase their share of Dublin market as investors retreat

First-time buyers substantially increased their share of the home-buying market in Dublin and Dublin docklands last year while investors’ share of the market dropped sharply.

Meanwhile, single women buyers outnumbered their male counterparts in the broader Dublin market, but single men were more active in the docklands market.

These are among the findings in the latest market surveys by estate agent Owen Reilly of those sales and rental transactions conducted by his firm in 2020.

https://www.businesspost.ie/commercial/first-time-buyers-increase-their-share-of-dublin-market-as-investors-retreat-78a2a44e?auth=login

Zenify

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

First-time buyers increase their share of Dublin market as investors retreat




https://www.businesspost.ie/commercial/first-time-buyers-increase-their-share-of-dublin-market-as-investors-retreat-78a2a44e?auth=login

Not surprising, but a bigger drop of landlords buying than I would have expected.

mcsean2163

https://m.herald.ie/news/high-fliers-shun-one-bed-flats-over-lack-of-work-space-40024803.html

So professional landlords leaving the market, nothing to see here....

PropQueries

mcsean2163 wrote: »

https://m.herald.ie/news/high-fliers-shun-one-bed-flats-over-lack-of-work-space-40024803.html

So professional landlords leaving the market, nothing to see here....

I would believe they’re primarily either the investment funds or other investors who bought in past few years to rent out on AirBnB.

The regular BTL landlord who purchased a BTL as a pension will unlikely be selling as they have little alternative investments options.

They could sell, put the proceeds into government bonds and receive no return. They can invest the proceeds into the stock market and potentially lose both all their capital and any future dividend. A very very risky move if they’re over 50 years old IMO

The only BTL landlords who are selling who purchased their investment property as a pension are the ones being forced to sell by their bank or whoever purchased their boom time BTL mortgage.

The BTL landlord who is genuinely using it as a future pension has no real alternative investments to put any sales proceeds into in the real world.

Unless, of course, they want to risk losing everything by gambling the proceeds in the stock market IMO.

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

I would believe they’re primarily either the investment funds or other investors who bought in past few years to rent out on AirBnB.

Was this behaviour common in Dublin
It seems odd that a government would give tax breaks to an investment fund that is involved in illegal activity

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

Was this behaviour common in Dublin
It seems odd that a government would give tax breaks to an investment fund that is involved in illegal activity

No idea. But my line was "primarily either the investment funds or other investors who bought in past few years to rent out on AirBnB."

In other words, I meant the sellers are either probably primarily investment funds who purchased their units as part of their bulk buying activity over the past few years and were on the way out anyway or other new individual investors who may have purchased with AirBnB in mind.

But it was a grey area so I would be unsure how many investment funds used the properties they purchased as AirBnB's etc.

Would be interesting if the data was there and would explain an awful lot about the past 7 years.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Was this behaviour common in Dublin
It seems odd that a government would give tax breaks to an investment fund that is involved in illegal activity

Airbnb is great. Far more cost effective accommodation, especially for families. It allows more people to take a holiday who may not be able to afford 1 or 2 hotel rooms for 5 nights. Long may it continue once travel restrictions are lifted.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

Airbnb is great. Far more cost effective accommodation, especially for families. It allows more people to take a holiday who may not be able to afford 1 or 2 hotel rooms for 5 nights. Long may it continue once travel restrictions are lifted.

Could student accomodation fill this niche, rather than residential property.
In general it is empty during peak family holiday time plus I believe there are 60k holiday houses and apartments throughout the country

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

Could student accomodation fill this niche, rather than residential property.
In general it is empty during peak family holiday time plus I believe there are 60k holiday houses and apartments throughout the country

Don't AirBnB's require planning permission now? And, then they're classified as commercial premises.

It may be good for families visiting the city for a week, but it's definitely not good for families actually living in those same cities all year round.

I honestly don't see the difference between allowing me to open a kebab shop in my front garden without planning permission and someone changing their home into a B&B without planning permission.

Neither should be allowed IMO. At least my Kebab shop in my front garden might actually benefit the real economy i.e. jobs etc. AirBnB only benefits the owner of the property with very little benefit to the wider economy.

Once the state solves this homeless crisis, there will be more than enough B&B's, Hostels, Hotels and as you said, student accommodation units (they're already fighting to use their units as tourist accommodation during the Summer months) etc.to cater for any tourists who may wish to visit.

Will be interesting to see what side of the debate the state stands on once the pandemic passes IMO

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

AirBnB only benefits the owner of the property with very little benefit to the wider economy.

tourists dont benefit the economy? and what homeless crisis?

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

Airbnb is great. Far more cost effective accommodation, especially for families. It allows more people to take a holiday who may not be able to afford 1 or 2 hotel rooms for 5 nights. Long may it continue once travel restrictions are lifted.

Airbnb is nice until you realize the absolute **** show it causes for locals, although that's probably beyond the empathetic capabilities of some folks here.

My last stays were in Barcelona, Budapest and Paris and all 3 properties had anti-Airbnb stickers where we picked up the keys, going forward i'll fork out the few bob extra for a hotel.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Could student accomodation fill this niche, rather than residential property.
In general it is empty during peak family holiday time plus I believe there are 60k holiday houses and apartments throughout the country

I’m sure it could if it is suitable. Probably depends on location etc too. Problem in Ireland was the populist move to require planning instead of actually regulating its operation. To be expected when dealing with politicians and public servants who are generally of below average intelligence.

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Airbnb is nice until you realize the absolute **** show it causes for locals, although that's probably beyond the empathetic capabilities of some folks here.

My last stays were in Barcelona, Budapest and Paris and all 3 properties had anti-Airbnb stickers where we picked up the keys, going forward i'll fork out the few bob extra for a hotel.

Even the economics don't make sense if the pre-covid number of AirBnB properties at c. 5,000 in Dublin were true.

We have DCC spending 10's of millions of euro each year on the homeless including booking out hotel rooms, hostels etc.

At the same time, they allowed c. 5,000 units to be rented out on AirBnB which is near enough the annual average additional supply of new build units in Dublin over the past number of years. Basically reversing the use of the respective properties i.e. hotels being used as residential and residential being used as hotels.

So, we had the state spending all this money on hotels etc. to house the homeless. On top of that, it created an accommodation supply shortage for workers which the state then had to spend even more money on HAP etc. to support.

AirBnB probably had a net negative impact on government revenues overall when you factor in all the money the state had to spend on the other side of the equation. Only beneficiary was the AirBnB property owner IMO.

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Airbnb is nice until you realize the absolute **** show it causes for locals, although that's probably beyond the empathetic capabilities of some folks here.

My last stays were in Barcelona, Budapest and Paris and all 3 properties had anti-Airbnb stickers where we picked up the keys, going forward i'll fork out the few bob extra for a hotel.

I’ve never experienced anything negative with Airbnb. Other countries were also guilty of not properly regulating its operation. We use hotels for 1-2 night stays but with 2 young kids that’s a challenge - interconnecting rooms etc not always available.

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

I’ve never experienced anything negative with Airbnb. Other countries were also guilty of not properly regulating its operation. We use hotels for 1-2 night stays but with 2 young kids that’s a challenge - interconnecting rooms etc not always available.

Its not really about you though, from what i have observed and heard in cities it really makes life more difficult for locals of the area.

If you think you're own convenience is more important fair enough.

PropQueries

<SNIP>

SmokyMo

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Its not really about you though, from what i have observed and heard in cities it really makes life more difficult for locals of the area.

If you think you're own convenience is more important fair enough.

How many local businesses boomed because of inflow of tourists attracted by Airbnb accommodations? You viewing this through a narrow lens.

PropQueries

SmokyMo wrote: »

How many local businesses boomed because of inflow of tourists attracted by Airbnb accommodations? You viewing this through a narrow lens.

And how much has the state had to pay out in HAP to rural ireland landlords to allow the workers in these tourist areas to afford to live there?

There are plenty of B&Bs, hotels, etc. located throughout rural Ireland, but the state booked many of them out to house homeless, refugees etc.

I wouldn’t mind, but I’m not a AirBnB owner and this implicit subsidy comes from my taxes. The AirBnB owner gets all the profit and my subsidy to him results in less health, policing etc. services in my area.

MacronvFrugals

SmokyMo wrote: »

How many local businesses boomed because of inflow of tourists attracted by Airbnb accommodations? You viewing this through a narrow lens.

Mental gymnastics

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Its not really about you though, from what i have observed and heard in cities it really makes life more difficult for locals of the area.

If you think you're own convenience is more important fair enough.

It’s not about convenience. If I want to go on holidays with my family and stay in a house or apartment on a short stay I will. It is not the fault of the general public that Airbnb etc was not properly regulated.

thefridge2006

AIB tightens mortgage lending rules

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/aib-tightens-mortgage-lending-rules-1.4473060

Has nobody told them that everything is going to be alright, and that covid/brexit is only a blip and that they won't wont have an negative impact house prices soon???? Silly banks, not like they haven't seen the signs before and know what to look out for

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

It’s not about convenience. If I want to go on holidays with my family and stay in a house or apartment on a short stay I will. It is not the fault of the general public that Airbnb etc was not properly regulated.

As is your right.....

MacronvFrugals

Plan to convert 4,000 empty spaces above Dublin shops into housing

A plan to help convert more than 4,000 empty spaces above shops into housing will be included in the next Dublin city development.

Dublin City Council is currently drafting a new development plan for the city, which will cover what can be built, and where, between 2022 to 2028.

John O’Hara, senior city planner at Dublin City Council, said a policy to promote living above the shop will be included in the final draft of the development plan.

“As a result of the pandemic there will be a severe curtailment of retail activity in the city and possibly even office activity. But it's vital for us, for a capital city to keep vitality and energy in the city. At the moment that comes from largely retail and the office workers,” he told the Business Post.

Interesting movement regarding the possibility of decreased retail footfall

https://www.businesspost.ie/retail/plan-to-convert-4000-empty-spaces-above-dublin-shops-into-housing-dc726c15

thefridge2006

Ex-Blanchardstown owner was under 'severe' liquidity pressure

https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/ex-blanchardstown-owner-was-under-severe-liquidity-pressure-40028976.html

Is it just me or is the house of cards beginning to shake?

I can only imagine what will happen the place when the Gov turn off the life support.............

thefridge2006

Link pulls out of deal for Pepper’s Irish business

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/link-pulls-out-of-deal-for-peppers-irish-business-40035136.html

A big Ozzy firm has pulled out of buying a company who has bought bad debts in Ireland? I wonder why??? :rolleyes:

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Link pulls out of deal for Pepper’s Irish business

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/link-pulls-out-of-deal-for-peppers-irish-business-40035136.html

A big Ozzy firm has pulled out of buying a company who has bought bad debts in Ireland? I wonder why??? :rolleyes:

Probably best if read the article instead of quoting the incorrect headline.

Cyrus

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Its not really about you though, from what i have observed and heard in cities it really makes life more difficult for locals of the area.

If you think you're own convenience is more important fair enough.

So his anecdotes are not ok but yours are gospel ?

MacronvFrugals

Cyrus wrote: »

So his anecdotes are not ok but yours are gospel ?

Actually my few Airbnb experiences were fantastic and all for a price to good to be true, but seeing anti-airbnb stickers along with "tourists go home" graffiti does cause oneself to have just a touch of introspection but hey maybe thats just me!

TheSheriff

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Link pulls out of deal for Pepper’s Irish business

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/link-pulls-out-of-deal-for-peppers-irish-business-40035136.html

A big Ozzy firm has pulled out of buying a company who has bought bad debts in Ireland? I wonder why??? :rolleyes:

Yawn.

Every so often these links are posted up with the "I wonder why they did that?" and a smug suggestion that the world is falling in.

You should read the article you posted.........

thefridge2006

Cyrus wrote: »

Probably best if read the article instead of quoting the incorrect headline.

Link pulls out of deal for Pepper’s Irish business


Maybe you should read that again pal.... it is the correct headline...

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

It’s not about convenience. If I want to go on holidays with my family and stay in a house or apartment on a short stay I will. It is not the fault of the general public that Airbnb etc was not properly regulated.

Air bnb can fexk off if we are setting up a quango to regulate it
The concept was simple when it started.
You have a spare bedroom you let it out on air bnb should you wish
The customer and supplier are responsible for their own actions, they know they are doing. Live with the outcomes.

It was never intended for whole residential units to be let out in this manner. If it is get revenue, councils to impose existing laws