2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Gradius

Timing belt wrote: »

Obviously everyone has different opinions and will have different circumstances. If a couple that were saving to buy but were struggling to get a deposit together before covid manage to get a deposit and get on the property ladder they are probably better off even if houses prices fall as they are no longer paying rent.

If you asking do we think there is going to be a economic collapse once PUP payments end it would seem unlikely at present without some-other event occurring.

Ireland was one of the very few countries in the world to grow in GDP terms last year

Personally speaking, if I were that couple I would absolutely save all that money, and then NOT buy at the highest property prices parts of this country have ever seen! But that's just me.

As for the impact of the pup payments ending, I'd side with them having a fairly dramatic impact on the market. Not by much, but let's say 70/30.

And as for the gdp thing...nothing makes sense anymore! I account for it as irrational exuberance, similar to how people are found naked in frozen tundra, a spike of madness minutes before the end.

I appreciate the engagement from people, but unfortunately I'm leaving none the wiser as to how prices are increasing during an economic meltdown. Beyond utter madness combined with temporary artificial influence, that is.

Gradius

Timing belt wrote: »

Have you stopped to ask why every asset class has gained value during the year?

Why is the stock market at all time high's?

Why are bond prices at all times high's?

Why have property prices gone up in nearly every developed country in the past year?

https://www.bis.org/statistics/pp.htm?m=6%7C288%7C640

Oh believe me, I'm very much aware of all that.

Interesting, isn't it?

Gradius

Graham wrote: »

I don't think your casual scanning reflects the reality.

I don't think a lot of things are tied to reality anymore, but my observations are not one of them.

Graham

Gradius wrote: »

Personally speaking, if I were that couple I would absolutely save all that money, and then NOT buy at the highest property prices parts of this country have ever seen! But that's just me.

Out of curiosity, which parts of the country are currently seeing record property prices?

nurik922

If I buy a new house, does it increase in value over time at the same rate as a similar second hand house? For example, if I choose between a new house for 300k and 4 year old property for 250k and buy the new one, after say 5 years living in that new house, in my view, any potential buyer when selecting between my house which is 5 years old and that second hand property which will be 9 years old then will choose 9 year old one (assuming the same growth rate in price). Am I missing some factors here?

Timing belt

Gradius wrote: »

Oh believe me, I'm very much aware of all that.

Interesting, isn't it?

Yeah it is as QE is driving a lot of it as it is encouraging investors to take on more risk as they chase yield in different asset classes.

Why invest in bonds when rates are negative?
Why invest in the stock market when P/E ratios are so high?
What asset class is still giving a decent return.... Property.

Graham

nurik922 wrote: »

Am I missing some factors here?

Location, the property itself, the possible effect of HTB and the new-house premium.

Timing belt

nurik922 wrote: »

If I buy a new house, does it increase in value over time at the same rate as a similar second hand house? For example, if I choose between a new house for 300k and 4 year old property for 250k and buy the new one, after say 5 years living in that new house, in my view, any potential buyer when selecting between my house which is 5 years old and that second hand property which will be 9 years old then will choose 9 year old one (assuming the same growth rate in price). Am I missing some factors here?

That's deep thinking for this time of night

Assuming both properties were of equal standard and in equal area the second hand house would appreciate in value quicker.

nurik922

Timing belt wrote: »

That's deep thinking for this time of night

Assuming both properties were of equal standard and in equal area the second hand house would appreciate in value quicker.

Indeed, I just copied pasted from another website where I asked the same question

So over time period that initial difference in price will become zero? That's my guess as well but just surprised with so many people going after new builds which led me to believe that I am missing something in my analysis.

Timing belt

nurik922 wrote: »

Indeed, I just copied pasted from another website where I asked the same question

So over time period that initial difference in price will become zero? That's my guess as well but just surprised with so many people going after new builds which led me to believe that I am missing something in my analysis.

In reality they won't be identical properties and the new builds will probably be better quality and people will also pay a premium for a new build.

HTB makes a big difference in the decision making as well.

Gradius

Graham wrote: »

Out of curiosity, which parts of the country are currently seeing record property prices?

I was wrong to say that property prices are record breaking, they're merely on the way there. Rent prices are at all time high, increasing through the pandemic.

Much of a muchness in relation to my question, which basically is "why haven't they collapsed?"

And the answer, through lack of other option, is that the pandemic payment is being gobbled up to sustain it. Artificial, in other words.

Graham

Gradius wrote: »

I was wrong to say that property prices are record breaking, they're merely on the way there. Rent prices are at all time high, increasing through the pandemic.

Thanks.

Similar question, where are new rental rates currently increasing?

Ursabear

I do agree with Gradius to an extent also , it does seem like landlords are getting better guarantees on certain incomes then other "workers". For instance the case of the student that was on earlier, I think it's pretty unfair how they have been treated. Basically had to sign up for accomodation or risk losing it while waiting for the announcement that was made at the very last moment ( and too late) that the majority of non practical third level would be from home. Then they are told tough, you signed a contract when a lot would feel they had had no choice but to have done so.

Gradius

Timing belt wrote: »

Yeah it is as QE is driving a lot of it as it is encouraging investors to take on more risk as they chase yield in different asset classes.

Why invest in bonds when rates are negative?
Why invest in the stock market when P/E ratios are so high?
What asset class is still giving a decent return.... Property.

But of course, just like QE, it's artificial. More to the point, it's temporary, and the piper is always paid!

So I wouldn't be the first person to jump on any of it. Just sticking to fundamentals, intrinsic value and such, the only sensible conclusion is that people have lost their minds!

The increasing reliance on individuals-making-sensible-investment, even on stock markets, is a ticking time bomb. What is it, 50%+ now are making up the entire market? When it goes south as it always does, the panic will be unprecedented. Combined with the larger, actually terrible decisions like QE and the like from actors supposed to protect individuals from themselves. A bad foundation upon which to base economy.

Anyway, goodnight and good luck

Timing belt

Ursabear wrote: »

I do agree with Gradius to an extent also , it does seem like landlords are getting better guarantees on certain incomes then other "workers". For instance the case of the student that was on earlier, I think it's pretty unfair how they have been treated. Basically had to sign up for accomodation or risk losing it while waiting for the announcement that was made at the very last moment ( and too late) that the majority of non practical third level would be from home. Then they are told tough, you signed a contract when a lot would feel they had had no choice but to have done so.

How many landlords will have tenants in rent arrears because of this....The bank will be knocking on there door and may even repossess the property which reduces the supply further. That is the thing not everyone is being impacted the same... if you compare someone working in IT to hospitality they will have totally different perspectives as to the impact of covid.

Gradius

Graham wrote: »

Thanks.

Similar question, where are new rental rates currently increasing?

Across the country, at large. But every part, to one extent or another has increased.

Which is a fair comparison seeing as the government subsidy is countrywide too, albeit it sucks for those even more that pay higher rent.

Graham

Ursabear wrote: »

I do agree with Gradius to an extent also , it does seem like landlords are getting better guarantees on certain incomes then other "workers". For instance the case of the student that was on earlier, I think it's pretty unfair how they have been treated. Basically had to sign up for accomodation or risk losing it while waiting for the announcement that was made at the very last moment ( and too late) that the majority of non practical third level would be from home. Then they are told tough, you signed a contract when a lot would feel they had had no choice but to have done so.

Student specific accommodation is slightly different to regular accommodation, the nature of the accommodation enables the providers to make demands that regular landlords couldn't.

Ursabear

Timing belt wrote: »

How many landlords will have tenants in rent arrears because of this....The bank will be knocking on there door and may even repossess the property which reduces the supply further. That is the thing not everyone is being impacted the same... if you compare someone working in IT to hospitality they will have totally different perspectives as to the impact of covid.

That's also a bad situation, however I think the student situation is a bit more unique where they may not be even staying in the accomodation at all but are still required to pay for it. If I couldn't pay rent anymore luckily I could hand in my notice and move out after a month and free it up for someone else so the landlord wasn't shorted.

Graham

Gradius wrote: »

Across the country, at large. But every part, to one extent or another has increased.

Can I ask where you're getting your data?

While I won't claim to be familiar with all areas of the country, and asking rents in some have increased it doesn't appear to be all. This is from Q3 2020

"Compared to a year ago, rents are rising in 30 of the 54 markets covered in the Daft.ie Report - but in only 9 of Dublin’s 25 markets."

Ursabear

Graham wrote: »

Student specific accommodation is slightly different to regular accommodation, the nature of the accommodation enables the providers to make demands that regular landlords couldn't.

It just seems really unfair to a cohart of (primarily) young people who aren't earning a steady solid income to have to sign up to system that doesn't make allowances for pandemics. When they were basically feeling pressurised to sign up to it at the end of August or risk not being able to make it into class if they lived too far away.

Idbatterim

it isnt that surprising! a roof over your head for people is top priority! the pup is paying out large amounts, people saving a fortune on eating out, drinking out, no weddings etc. Many are on great money and have had to pay cuts.

Supply is a joke, cost of construction and taxes are a joke. Its not panning out how I expected nearly a year ago, but with the benefit of hindsight, how it has and is panning out, makes sense.

Collossal amounts are being borrowed, to stop reality from being addressed now. Will they get away with the huge borrowing and decision making or will it all come crashing down? lets see...

PropQueries

Here's a good example of vacant boom time apartments that will soon be added to the housing supply in the near future but won't be included in the new build housing supply statistics when they do enter supply.

There's many many more of these around the country IMO.

"A portfolio of 47 apartments in Ballybofey, Co Donegal has been purchased by an Irish property company with an existing residential portfolio for around its €1.45m guide price.

In 2017, these Navenny Place units were purchased at a BidX1 auction for €581,000 and subsequently the 2017 purchaser added value by sorting out fire compliance and management company issues."

Link to article in today's Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/donegal-apartment-portfolio-sells-for-around-145m-guide-40049618.html

Here's the estate agents sales page: http://property.martinmcgowan.ie/properties/47-partially-constructed-apartments-ballybofey/

decreds

Sorry to derail this thread, i need advice and not sure where to start - mods if this requires it's own thread i will do the needful

Due to separation i had to sell my property in July 2020, after all deductions i am left with 180k and around 20k in savings. I'm currently living with a family member paying 400e per month in rent but would really like my own place sooner rather than later as i am 35 and have two young children.

The properties i desire are in the 400-420k range but i am hesitant to jump in now with 200k deposit as from what i have read up on on investing and market cycles (very limited knowledge) it appears we're at the end of a market cycle and don't want to get burned like people during the GFC. The property needs to be close to South Dublin hence the price range.

Should i wait a year or two and see how things materialize or go for it now?

Hubertj

Idbatterim wrote: »

it isnt that surprising! a roof over your head for people is top priority! the pup is paying out large amounts, people saving a fortune on eating out, drinking out, no weddings etc. Many are on great money and have had to pay cuts.

Supply is a joke, cost of construction and taxes are a joke. Its not panning out how I expected nearly a year ago, but with the benefit of hindsight, how it has and is panning out, makes sense.

Collossal amounts are being borrowed, to stop reality from being addressed now. Will they get away with the huge borrowing and decision making or will it all come crashing down? lets see...

What would you suggest as an alternative in terms of borrowing to support the economy and people?

Zenify

decreds wrote: »

Sorry to derail this thread, i need advice and not sure where to start - mods if this requires it's own thread i will do the needful

Due to separation i had to sell my property in July 2020, after all deductions i am left with 180k and around 20k in savings. I'm currently living with a family member paying 400e per month in rent but would really like my own place sooner rather than later as i am 35 and have two young children.

The properties i desire are in the 400-420k range but i am hesitant to jump in now with 200k deposit as from what i have read up on on investing and market cycles (very limited knowledge) it appears we're at the end of a market cycle and don't want to get burned like people during the GFC. The property needs to be close to South Dublin hence the price range.

Should i wait a year or two and see how things materialize or go for it now?

Hahaha.... I'm getting the popcorn out.


If you read back on the thread you'll see the answer to your question. The majority of this thread is people debating this question. You will get some answers saying yes and some saying no.

fliball123

decreds wrote: »

Sorry to derail this thread, i need advice and not sure where to start - mods if this requires it's own thread i will do the needful

Due to separation i had to sell my property in July 2020, after all deductions i am left with 180k and around 20k in savings. I'm currently living with a family member paying 400e per month in rent but would really like my own place sooner rather than later as i am 35 and have two young children.

The properties i desire are in the 400-420k range but i am hesitant to jump in now with 200k deposit as from what i have read up on on investing and market cycles (very limited knowledge) it appears we're at the end of a market cycle and don't want to get burned like people during the GFC. The property needs to be close to South Dublin hence the price range.

Should i wait a year or two and see how things materialize or go for it now?

What ever advice you get on here do not take it as gospel my god I hope to christ the conspiracy theory experts dont sway you one way or the other. If I was you I would sit down go over you finances, see how your relationship is with the family member as in pull him / her aside and ask "really how much of a burden am I here" I dont know your rental situation but 400 a month sounds pretty low. 200k in the bank there are over 2k properties for sale on myhome for that amount which would mean you dont need a mortgage. You must be on a high enough wage to able to get a mortgage of say 220 to 240k by yourself on the limit you set so financially you must be in good shape. But like I say it will all depend on your own circumstances. I would be swaying my decision on the below questions:

How much of a burden are you on the family member you are staying with
Do you need to live in a major city
Will you be WFH
How safe is your job
If property was to drop by say 10-15% how would it affect you
If interest rates were to go up by 4/5% could you afford to continue living
Can you supplement your wage with an up to 14k a year (tax free) rent a room scheme as you already seem to be used to living with other people.

I would look at those questions first before putting any credence on advice you get on here. Good luck with the hunt

Bass Reeves

decreds wrote: »

Sorry to derail this thread, i need advice and not sure where to start - mods if this requires it's own thread i will do the needful

Due to separation i had to sell my property in July 2020, after all deductions i am left with 180k and around 20k in savings. I'm currently living with a family member paying 400e per month in rent but would really like my own place sooner rather than later as i am 35 and have two young children.

The properties i desire are in the 400-420k range but i am hesitant to jump in now with 200k deposit as from what i have read up on on investing and market cycles (very limited knowledge) it appears we're at the end of a market cycle and don't want to get burned like people during the GFC. The property needs to be close to South Dublin hence the price range.

Should i wait a year or two and see how things materialize or go for it now?

It's really a decision you have to make yourself. Remember the market can continue to go up as well as down. Are you comfortable waiting 2+ years to buy. Any indication IMO is that prices will not drop this year. I could be wrong but that is my opinion. Its is unlikely at any stage in the next two years we could see more than a 10% correction. However houses could just as likely go up by 10%. new apartments are generally bought by REIT'S, there is no indication there are stopping buying. If they do construction of apartments will cease as it would be impossible to finance.

On the other side houses and apartments are I creasing in cost, will LA decide to go into the development game. Build large numbers of units. This might impact house prices. It could also stop private supply.

Are you happy living with your relatives for 2+ years waiting for the price drop. Will you decide to rent another property if your wait is of this timescale. A 200k mortgage is about 1050 euro/ month over 20 years. This would just about get you a one bed apartment for rent a two bed would cost above 1200/month.

You just need to look at the options clearly and make up your mind. None of use here could or should tell you what to do. We can just give you what can be different senario's. Last year we had lads predicting massive price falls and low ball bid and play hardball. Anybody that took that advice how do they feel now

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

What ever advice you get on here do not take it as gospel my god I hope to christ the conspiracy theory experts dont sway you one way or the other. If I was you I would sit down go over you finances, see how your relationship is with the family member as in pull him / her aside and ask "really how much of a burden am I here" I dont know your rental situation but 400 a month sounds pretty low. 200k in the bank there are over 2k properties for sale on myhome for that amount which would mean you dont need a mortgage. You must be on a high enough wage to able to get a mortgage of say 220 to 240k by yourself on the limit you set so financially you must be in good shape. But like I say it will all depend on your own circumstances. I would be swaying my decision on the below questions:

How much of a burden are you on the family member you are staying with
Do you need to live in a major city
Will you be WFH
How safe is your job
If property was to drop by say 10-15% how would it affect you
If interest rates were to go up by 4/5% could you afford to continue living
Can you supplement your wage with an up to 14k a year (tax free) rent a room scheme as you already seem to be used to living with other people.

I would look at those questions first before putting any credence on advice you get on here. Good luck with the hunt

Conspiracy theory experts!!!

Only conspiracy theory I've heard round here is that anybody who dares to express a bearish opinion on property prices is willing the market to fall so they can pick up their dream gaff for a song!

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Conspiracy theory experts!!!

Only conspiracy theory I've heard round here is that anybody who dares to express a bearish opinion on property prices is willing the market to fall so they can pick up their dream gaff for a song!

And last year I displayed facts and figures to back up my position that anyone with a bearish position would be wrong and guess what I was proven right prices did not drop last year. So I was right to pull people on statements that prices will drop by anywhere from 10 to 50% last year a lot of what was going on with the Bears was complete sh1t made up stuff and spinning data to support their own narrative..Hindsight has proven me right so there is no need to argue with you when the truth, facts and figures are there for all to see

JimmyVik

What date last years version of this thread start last year? Or maybe the year before that one?
I wonder is it time to call in the bets.

Anyone whos predictions didnt come true?

Hands up myself.
Ive been predicting major falls for a good 10 years now
And I always seem to have evidence supporting it.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

And last year I displayed facts and figures to back up my position that anyone with a bearish position would be wrong and guess what I was proven right prices did not drop last year. So I was right to pull people on on statements that prices will drop by anywhere from 10 to 50% last year a lot of what was going on with the Bears was complete sh1t made up stuff and spinning data to support their own narrative..Hindsight has proven me right

So you said prices would not drop. You were right, well done. I'm yet to be convinced you're an expert though.

Others said prices would drop. They (we) were wrong. Boo to them. But where are the conspiracy theories?

I'm sick of hearing about people making stuff up and spinning data - it's utter nonsense. You are wrong about this.

Bass Reeves

schmittel wrote: »

Conspiracy theory experts!!!

Only conspiracy theory I've heard round here is that anybody who dares to express a bearish opinion on property prices is willing the market to fall so they can pick up their dream gaff for a song!

The problem with bearish opinions is that in general there suppositions are based on factors that may influence house pric s in 2+years time. None of there so called facts will effect house prices in six weeks, six months and may not effect houses prices in six years time. That is the problem with many bearish opinions at present.

Last year as COVID issues developed and effected the economy bearish opinions predicted that house prices would fall 20% in 12 months and 50% plus in 2years. I expressed the opinion that supply dominated the issue as at present. There was no stock of unsold liveable houses like in 2008 to support the price collapse that people indicated. I expressed an option that house prices would remain stable or drop by 5-10% at most.

You know what I was wrong I was not a bear, I was accused of being a property bull with an opinion like that. I was not a bull there was no bulls on the thread. Of there was property bulls they have been correct.

hometruths

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The problem with bearish opinions is that in general there suppositions are based on factors that may influence house pric s in 2+years time. None of there so called facts will effect house prices in six weeks, six months and may not effect houses prices in six years time. That is the problem with many bearish opinions at present.

Last year as COVID issues developed and effected the economy bearish opinions predicted that house prices would fall 20% in 12 months and 50% plus in 2years. I expressed the opinion that supply dominated the issue as at present. There was no stock of unsold liveable houses like in 2008 to support the price collapse that people indicated. I expressed an option that house prices would remain stable or drop by 5-10% at most.

You know what I was wrong I was not a bear, I was accused of being a property bull with an opinion like that. I was not a bull there was no bulls on the thread. Of there was property bulls they have been correct.

I really don't understand the problem of expressing an opinion on factors that may or may not have an effect in 2 years time.

To me it's a lot more relevant than what is going to happen in six weeks time.

My view is that there are more headwinds than tailwinds facing the market at the minute. This is not a conspiracy theory.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

So you said prices would not drop. You were right, well done. I'm yet to be convinced you're an expert though.

Others said prices would drop. They (we) were wrong. Boo to them. But where are the conspiracy theories?

I'm sick of hearing about people making stuff up and spinning data - it's utter nonsense. You are wrong about this.

I never said I was an expert and more importantly I have never told another poster to buy or sell a house if you look at the post you attacked this morning I never told the poster to buy or sell I simply gave him a list of questions that I would be asking myself if I was in their position, some of these questions would encourage you to buy and some would stop you from buying. All I have done is try to present data and stats that swayed my opinion last year on what way prices were going last year.

Go back to the original thread on this back in Jan/Feb and you will see some posters where going gang busters on a 10 to 50% price drop. We had people telling their kids not to buy last year as prices were going to drop before the end of the year. Then we have posters like propsquery who have been proven wrong time and time again on their very bearish position and yet after been proven wrong he/she will regurgitate the same information a couple of weeks later.

Look the threads are all there for anyone who is interested in this spat between us. So just to summarize it, I laid out my position you laid out yours..I was right you were wrong ..in your own words "GET OVER YOURSELF"

JimmyVik

schmittel wrote: »

I really don't understand the problem of expressing an opinion on factors that may or may not have an effect in 2 years time.

To me it's a lot more relevant than what is going to happen in six weeks time.

My view is that there are more headwinds than tailwinds facing the market at the minute. This is not a conspiracy theory.

Perhaps a better question would be.
How long has each person been predicting a major fall in property prices.
I might have the record.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

I never said I was an expert and more importantly I have never told another poster to buy or sell a house if you look at the post you attacked this morning I never told the poster to buy or sell I simply gave him a list of questions that I would be asking myself if I was in their position, some of these questions would encourage you to buy and some would stop you from buying. All I have done is try to present data and stats that swayed my opinion last year on what way prices were going last year.

You keep saying this like you deserve a medal. I haven't specifically advised any poster not to buy, but I don't need a pat on the back for it.

fliball123 wrote: »

Go back to the original thread on this back in Jan/Feb and you will see some posters where going gang busters on a 10 to 50% price drop. We had people telling their kids not to buy last year as prices were going to drop before the end of the year. Then we have posters like propsquery who have been proven wrong time and time again on their very bearish position and yet after been proven wrong he/she will regurgitate the same information a couple of weeks later.

Look the threads are all there for anyone who is interested in this spat between us. So just to summarize it, I laid out my position you laid out yours..I was right you were wrong ..in your own words "GET OVER YOURSELF"

Posters were wrong!! So what!! But the question I asked is where are the conspiracy theories?

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

You keep saying this like you deserve a medal. I haven't specifically advised any poster not to buy, but I don't need a pat on the back for it.



Posters were wrong!! So what!! But the question I asked is where are the conspiracy theories?

As I said go back over the threads if that is too much to do just look at propsQueries posts alone and you will see a number of conclusions made up with absolutely no facts behind them.

I dont want a medal having you admit I was right on boards is enough for me

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Posters were wrong!! So what!! But the question I asked is where are the conspiracy theories?

Don't have time at the moment, to go through posts. But there are many, and I have pointed out, few of the conspiracies about Funds/Government. Not to mention that there are many "Estate Agents" here who try to push the price on this thread, including me. I was few times indirectly named as an Estate Agent.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

So you said prices would not drop. You were right, well done. I'm yet to be convinced you're an expert though.

Others said prices would drop. They (we) were wrong. Boo to them. But where are the conspiracy theories?

I'm sick of hearing about people making stuff up and spinning data - it's utter nonsense. You are wrong about this.

Edit - Replied to this post by mistake even though it wasn't aimed at me Below is my post on the current published CSO/PPR possible data issues.

Well, according to the BPFI last week:

“The number of mortgages approved last year was the lowest since 2017, despite a pick-up in activity in the final quarter of the year, according to figures from Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI).

During 2020, 43,151 mortgages worth €10.3 billion were approved. The value of these mortgages was down 6.7% compared with 2019.

The BPFI’s figures also showed that 35,617 mortgages worth almost €8.4 billion were drawn down in 2020, also the lowest figure since 2017. This was despite a 50% jump in volume compared with the third quarter of 2020.”

So demand was definitely down over 2020.

And it’s definitely not a “supply” issue for two reasons.

1. New build supply didn’t fall off a cliff during 2020.

2. None of the data predicted this “supply” issue in the months before Covid. With net inward migration etc. down, it’s most likely other short-term issues (e.g. maybe more higher income groups as a percentage of home buyers buying property, hence skewing the data or delays in processing the data due to lockdowns etc.) in relation to the published PPR/CSO data IMO

A good example is the recent issue in the UK where the ONS (their version of our CSO) reported an increase in the population in London, while another government backed organisation stated the population actually probably fell by 700,000.

The ONS stated in response:

“The ONS does not dispute the logic of the analysis and accepts anomalies being in its current estimates of employment and population. It blames these on difficulties of counting migration during the pandemic when its normal surveys have been suspended.”

Link to BPFI article here: https://www.lawsociety.ie/gazette/top-stories/mortgage-approvals-at-lowest-level-since-2017/

Link to ONS article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/covid-19-london-s-population-fell-by-700-000-amid-exodus-of-foreign-born-residents-from-uk-1.4458762

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

As I said go back over the threads if that is too much to do just look at propsQueries posts alone and you will see a number of conclusions made up with absolutely no facts behind them.

I don't need to go back over the the threads, as I have read them all. And I have seen as much spinning of data from posters on the other side of Props arguments as I have from Props. There are no conspiracy theories.

fliball123 wrote: »

I dont want a medal having you admit I was right on boards is enough for me

You were right in your predictions about the market twelve months ago. I was wrong. I am happy to say it as many times as you wish. It is not a big deal for me.

In any discussion forum, having people with differing opinions is healthy. In a forum like this where people are discussing what will happen in the future, it is inevitable that some of those opinions will turn out to be wrong.

I have no problem with my opinions being wrong when evidence or events confirm it. I do have a problem with posters who cannot admit that they are wrong. That does not make for valuable debate, and posters just end up making fools of themselves.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Don't have time at the moment, to go through posts. But there are many, and I have pointed out, few of the conspiracies about Funds/Government. Not to mention that there are many "Estate Agents" here who try to push the price on this thread, including me. I was few times indirectly named as an Estate Agent.

If you mean the discussion that Funds/Government have vested interest in maintaining/increasing property prices, I don't think that is a conspiracy theory. By this stage it seems to be blindingly obvious.

Villa05

Bass Reeves wrote:

The problem with bearish opinions is that in general there suppositions are based on factors that may influence house pric s in 2+years time. None of there so called facts will effect house prices in six weeks, six months and may not effect houses prices in six years time. That is the problem with many bearish opinions at present.

Most new property being purchased by:

Govt for social/affordable.

Investment funds, reits supported by close to 0 tax policy from Govt and long term leases at peak rents from the state

The remaining sales are supported by Ftb grants of up to 30k rising to 130k with shared ownership driving up prices

It would appear that prices of all new builds are propped up/inflated by the state

The state is amongst the most indebted in the world with a multitude of high cost issues awaiting it


How long will the current situation last?

You can only get away with bad policies for so long. The lobger they survive the greater the pain when we are found out

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

If you mean the discussion that Funds/Government have vested interest in maintaining/increasing property prices, I don't think that is a conspiracy theory. By this stage it seems to be blindingly obvious.

No, to me interest is more of subjective matter. I believe most of the parties in any business has vested interest.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

I don't need to go back over the the threads, as I have read them all. And I have seen as much spinning of data from posters on the other side of Props arguments as I have from Props. There are no conspiracy theories.



You were right in your predictions about the market twelve months ago. I was wrong. I am happy to say it as many times as you wish. It is not a big deal for me.

In any discussion forum, having people with differing opinions is healthy. In a forum like this where people are discussing what will happen in the future, it is inevitable that some of those opinions will turn out to be wrong.

I have no problem with my opinions being wrong when evidence or events confirm it. I do have a problem with posters who cannot admit that they are wrong. That does not make for valuable debate, and posters just end up making fools of themselves.

Hey! Don't give in to other posters so easily. If our CSO/PPR stats are as out of whack as the UK equivalent statistics, you may be proven right yet

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I'm sick of hearing about people making stuff up and spinning data - it's utter nonsense. You are wrong about this.

one poster in particular has been at it for a year now, and when proven wrong moves on to the next point which is normally one he made a few months back and was previously debunked.

you cant expect people to accept that you are on the level if you are willing to overlook that.

DataDude

As someone who's too young to remember the previous property crash, I was intrigued to see what the commentary was like approaching and during that time. It made me smile to see how the same old tropes of "extra cash" (SSIA vs Pandemic Savings) and lack of supply in the right areas seem to be exactly the same.

I'm not for a second suggesting the fundamentals we face today remotely resemble those of 2007, nor do I believe personally that there's any major drop in price coming. It has just made me more resolute in my belief that nobody, not even the "experts", really have any clue what's coming down the tracks!

Quotes from Daft Property experts in reports from 06/07 just as Ireland barreled towards a 50%+ reduction across the board. These are ordered from oldest to most recent to show the very slight change in mood over time.

"economic forecasts suggest that employment and incomes will continue to grow. This year also sees SSIAs starting to mature. Surveys indicate that a sizeable portion of SSIA money will find its way into the property market. Overall economic growth is expected to remain strong at over 5 per cent per annum in both 2006 and 2007. Thus, the Irish housing market should continue to be driven by strong activity levels"

"Two fundamental events justify the reacceleration in prices since this time last year. As last year drew to a close, the expected release of SSIA moneys, which began this May, became bankable as deposit leverage....So the recent price resurgence is 'fundamental' in nature: The stock of credit available for house purchase increased significantly in a short space of time, but the supply of houses in sought after areas did not. Throw more money after the same amount of goods and prices rise: It's the oldest law in economics."

"But the underlying market realities do not point to a collapse in prices either in 2007 or beyond."

"The latest Daft.ie figures show that vendors have revised their expectations for prices, as a result of weaker demand from potential buyers. But the data also continue to suggest that the most likely outcome for prices is a period of stagnation rather than significant decline."

"Selling prices are unlikely to decline sharply here for a number of reasons. First, Irish builders have cut supply immediately and radically. Second, the majority of new home developers are cash-rich after years of high retained earnings. They can afford to sit and wait for sales to materialize without having to drop prices significantly. Third, existing home-owners wishing to trade-up invariably take their homes off the market rather than sell at a discount. In some cases, they may prefer to extend or renovate their homes rather than settle for a lower price. Our guess is that prices will be unchanged to slightly down over the next six months."

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

one poster in particular has been at it for a year now, and when proven wrong moves on to the next point which is normally one he made a few months back and was previously debunked.

you cant expect people to accept that you are on the level if you are willing to overlook that.

Well, in my case, I only joined on the 27th July 2020, so I'm only posting here for about 6 months. Hardly enough time for my predictions to be proved wrong yet IMO

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, in my case, I only joined on the 27th July 2020, so I'm only posting here for about 6 months. Hardly enough time for my predictions to be proved wrong yet IMO

sorry feels like longer,

you have been proven wrong on plenty

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

sorry feels like longer,

you have been proven wrong on plenty

Nice to know I've made such a big impact on the debate in so short a time

Marius34

Marius34 wrote: »

No, to me interest is more of subjective matter. I believe most of the parties in any business has vested interest.

That doesn't contradict anything said