2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Nice to know I've made such a big impact on the debate in so short a time

you have dominated it

oddly for someone who tip toed in professing they had no opinion one way or the other.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Edit - Replied to this post by mistake even though it wasn't aimed at me Below is my post on the current published CSO/PPR possible data issues.

Well, according to the BPFI last week:

“The number of mortgages approved last year was the lowest since 2017, despite a pick-up in activity in the final quarter of the year, according to figures from Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI).

During 2020, 43,151 mortgages worth €10.3 billion were approved. The value of these mortgages was down 6.7% compared with 2019.

The BPFI’s figures also showed that 35,617 mortgages worth almost €8.4 billion were drawn down in 2020, also the lowest figure since 2017. This was despite a 50% jump in volume compared with the third quarter of 2020.”

So demand was definitely down over 2020.

And it’s definitely not a “supply” issue for two reasons.

1. New build supply didn’t fall off a cliff during 2020.

2. None of the data predicted this “supply” issue in the months before Covid. With net inward migration etc. down, it’s most likely other short-term issues (e.g. maybe more higher income groups as a percentage of home buyers buying property, hence skewing the data or delays in processing the data due to lockdowns etc.) in relation to the published PPR/CSO data IMO

A good example is the recent issue in the UK where the ONS (their version of our CSO) reported an increase in the population in London, while another government backed organisation stated the population actually probably fell by 700,000.

The ONS stated in response:

“The ONS does not dispute the logic of the analysis and accepts anomalies being in its current estimates of employment and population. It blames these on difficulties of counting migration during the pandemic when its normal surveys have been suspended.”

Link to BPFI article here: https://www.lawsociety.ie/gazette/top-stories/mortgage-approvals-at-lowest-level-since-2017/

Link to ONS article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/covid-19-london-s-population-fell-by-700-000-amid-exodus-of-foreign-born-residents-from-uk-1.4458762

And just like he heard the call ..here we go

bringing in comparisons with London population - Why? what has London's population got to do with it? Not a mention that Brexit may have something to do with this, but because the ONS got it wrong so is the CSO ??

Completely ignoring the fact that even without immigration inwards our population still naturally increased.

Ireland seen an increase of 55900 in the year from April 2019 to April 2020 according to the CSO

https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2020pressreleases/pressstatementpopulationandmigrationestimatesapril2020/

But no will look at London and because they seen a drop in population we must of seen one here as well.


Completely ignoring the increased difficulty covid, lockdown, PUP or the subsidy payments had on people drawing down mortgages and increasing the time it has taken to get approval and to see out the actual purchase of a property. There is a thread on here about people currently buying and selling this is all anacodal of course but just have a look at some of the struggles people have had over the past year

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058047890

Links to some difficulties for drawing down (just 2 of many)
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-31000912.html

https://www.thejournal.ie/wage-subsidy-mortgage-approval-5120028-Jun2020/


Picking a specific date range the year as a comparison that suits his narrative. If we compared Q4 in 2019 and 2020 what way would the stats go and ignoring the fact that in Q4 we hit an all time high for mortgage approval rates since they were recorded.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1222/1185914-mortgage-approval-rates/

We still have no figures on the actual amount of new properties built in 2020 they are all still estimates. The figure will be out soon. Can he show me a link to where it says actual figures as anything posted on here or that are up on line are estimates from 2020.

Ignoring the fact that there is a supply issue. When people say there is a supply issue he will then give a 2016 stat about the amount of vacant houses that are out there is at 90k . He believes no houses have ever been abolished in that time, or that some of the people were not just simple out of the house at the time the survey was done and the 90k houses will in the near future be there ready for sale or rent

You only have to look at my home Jan of last year there were 25k properties for sale. Feb this year less than 12k If there are less than half the amount of properties available in 12 months can you not say supply has fallen off a cliff?? I guess its up to everyone else to make up their own mind. But its ok as the 90k empty properties that were supposedly there in 2016 will soon be coming on stream. Not to mention all the properties that deaths will free up even do births have out paced deaths each and every every year and up until Q2 in 2020 and all of these people need a place to live. We have no stats after this

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vs/vitalstatisticssecondquarter2020/#:~:text=This%20equates%20to%20a%20death,2.7%20per%201%2C000%20live%20births.

So how many conspiracy theories can we take from this Schmittel??

NO:1
London's population and fact finding are wrong therefore we can assume so is the CSO and Ireland population has gone down.

NO:2
Because we had a year where we had mortgage drawdowns under the level of 2017 a year just plucked out of his bum demand was definitely down and ignoring the mortgage approval rates or the difficulties that are there in drawing down.

NO:3 in their own words - There is definitely not a supply issue - this one need a tinfoil hat

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

one poster in particular has been at it for a year now, and when proven wrong moves on to the next point which is normally one he made a few months back and was previously debunked.

you cant expect people to accept that you are on the level if you are willing to overlook that.

Exactly the same thing by other posters is routinely overlooked. By your logic, nobody here is on the level.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

And just like he heard the call ..here we go

bringing in comparisons with London population - Why? what has London's population got to do with it? Not a mention that Brexit may have something to do with this, but because the ONS got it wrong so is the CSO ??

Completely ignoring the fact that even without immigration inwards our population still naturally increased.

Ireland seen an increase of 55900 in the year from April 2019 to April 2020 according to the CSO

https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2020pressreleases/pressstatementpopulationandmigrationestimatesapril2020/

But no will look at London and because they seen a drop in population we must of seen one here as well.


Completely ignoring the increased difficulty covid, lockdown, PUP or the subsidy payments had on people drawing down mortgages and increasing the time it has taken to get approval and to see out the actual purchase of a property. There is a thread on here about people currently buying and selling this is all anacodal of course but just have a look at some of the struggles people have had over the past year

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058047890

Links to some difficulties for drawing down (just 2 of many)
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-31000912.html

https://www.thejournal.ie/wage-subsidy-mortgage-approval-5120028-Jun2020/


Picking a specific date range the year as a comparison that suits his narrative. If we compared Q4 in 2019 and 2020 what way would the stats go and ignoring the fact that in Q4 we hit an all time high for mortgage approval rates since they were recorded.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1222/1185914-mortgage-approval-rates/

We still have no figures on the actual amount of new properties built in 2020 they are all still estimates. The figure will be out soon. Can he show me a link to where it says actual figures as anything posted on here or that are up on line are estimates from 2020.

Ignoring the fact that there is a supply issue. When people say there is a supply issue he will then give a 2016 stat about the amount of vacant houses that are out there is at 90k . He believes no houses have ever been abolished in that time, or that some of the people were not just simple out of the house at the time the survey was done and the 90k houses will in the near future be there ready for sale or rent

You only have to look at my home Jan of last year there were 25k properties for sale. Feb this year less than 12k If there are less than half the amount of properties available in 12 months can you not say supply has fallen off a cliff?? I guess its up to everyone else to make up their own mind. But its ok as the 90k empty properties that were supposedly there in 2016 will soon be coming on stream. Not to mention all the properties that deaths will free up even do births have out paced deaths each and every every year and up until Q2 in 2020 and all of these people need a place to live. We have no stats after this

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-vs/vitalstatisticssecondquarter2020/#:~:text=This%20equates%20to%20a%20death,2.7%20per%201%2C000%20live%20births.

So how many conspiracy theories can we take from this Schmittel??

NO:1
London's population and fact finding are wrong therefore we can assume so is the CSO and Ireland population has gone down.

NO:2
Because we had a year where we had mortgage drawdowns under the level of 2017 a year just plucked out of his bum demand was definitely down and ignoring the mortgage approval rates or the difficulties that are there in drawing down.

NO:3 in their own words - There is definitely not a supply issue - this one need a tinfoil hat

From the same CSO link you posted in relation to the population increase:

"In April 2020, 720,100 persons were estimated to be aged 65 years and over, reflecting an increase of 90,200 persons (+14.3%), in this age group since April 2016"

How many of these over 65's are in the market for a new house?

fago

From:
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/strongest-quarter-of-home-sales-in-a-decade-sherry-fitzgerald-1.4475428

....
She said prospective buyers were locked out of the market in the first lockdown and when the market reopened there was “a frenzy of activity”.

And because people were worried about the prospect of further lockdowns, they made decisions quicker, she said. “We probably saw five or six months of activity squeezed into a single quarter,” she said.

Ms Finnegan was speaking after the launch of the company’s latest annual review and outlook report, which forecast a modest rise in house prices this year – between 1 and 3 per cent – linked to a shortage of available stock.
....


I think it's fair to say an estate agent would usually be marked among the "shills" in terms of property market.
It's interesting to see those 2 paragraphs side by side - massive pent up demand in the 4th quarter __but__ their analysis still only project a small increase for 2021

(As an aside in the narrow market I keep an eye on the majority of houses sold in Q4 are appearing in PPR between 2-7% below asking - the outliers are high spec ready to move into in good location attract lots of bidding. Just more anecdotal data but of interest to me)

JimmyVik

DataDude wrote: »

As someone who's too young to remember the previous property crash, I was intrigued to see what the commentary was like approaching and during that time. It made me smile to see how the same old tropes of "extra cash" (SSIA vs Pandemic Savings) and lack of supply in the right areas seem to be exactly the same.

I'm not for a second suggesting the fundamentals we face today remotely resemble those of 2007, nor do I believe personally that there's any major drop in price coming. It has just made me more resolute in my belief that nobody, not even the "experts", really have any clue what's coming down the tracks!

Quotes from Daft Property experts in reports from 06/07 just as Ireland barreled towards a 50%+ reduction across the board. These are ordered from oldest to most recent to show the very slight change in mood over time.

"economic forecasts suggest that employment and incomes will continue to grow. This year also sees SSIAs starting to mature. Surveys indicate that a sizeable portion of SSIA money will find its way into the property market. Overall economic growth is expected to remain strong at over 5 per cent per annum in both 2006 and 2007. Thus, the Irish housing market should continue to be driven by strong activity levels"

"Two fundamental events justify the reacceleration in prices since this time last year. As last year drew to a close, the expected release of SSIA moneys, which began this May, became bankable as deposit leverage....So the recent price resurgence is 'fundamental' in nature: The stock of credit available for house purchase increased significantly in a short space of time, but the supply of houses in sought after areas did not. Throw more money after the same amount of goods and prices rise: It's the oldest law in economics."

"But the underlying market realities do not point to a collapse in prices either in 2007 or beyond."

"The latest Daft.ie figures show that vendors have revised their expectations for prices, as a result of weaker demand from potential buyers. But the data also continue to suggest that the most likely outcome for prices is a period of stagnation rather than significant decline."

"Selling prices are unlikely to decline sharply here for a number of reasons. First, Irish builders have cut supply immediately and radically. Second, the majority of new home developers are cash-rich after years of high retained earnings. They can afford to sit and wait for sales to materialize without having to drop prices significantly. Third, existing home-owners wishing to trade-up invariably take their homes off the market rather than sell at a discount. In some cases, they may prefer to extend or renovate their homes rather than settle for a lower price. Our guess is that prices will be unchanged to slightly down over the next six months."

Sure just look at all the threads from years after the crash saying buying is for idiots, you should rent for the rest of your life and you will come out better off. All backed up, as is every prediction with links and stats from all sorts of studiess and reports.
You are right. Nobody actually does know at the end of the day.

PropQueries

fago wrote: »

From:
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/strongest-quarter-of-home-sales-in-a-decade-sherry-fitzgerald-1.4475428

....
She said prospective buyers were locked out of the market in the first lockdown and when the market reopened there was “a frenzy of activity”.

And because people were worried about the prospect of further lockdowns, they made decisions quicker, she said. “We probably saw five or six months of activity squeezed into a single quarter,” she said.

Ms Finnegan was speaking after the launch of the company’s latest annual review and outlook report, which forecast a modest rise in house prices this year – between 1 and 3 per cent – linked to a shortage of available stock.
....


I think it's fair to say an estate agent would usually be marked among the "shills" in terms of property market.
It's interesting to see those 2 paragraphs side by side - massive pent up demand in the 4th quarter __but__ their analysis still only project a small increase for 2021

(As an aside in the narrow market I keep an eye on the majority of houses sold in Q4 are appearing in PPR between 2-7% below asking - the outliers are high spec ready to move into in good location attract lots of bidding. Just more anecdotal data but of interest to me)

I wonder how her statement "We probably saw five or six months of activity squeezed into a single quarter" fits in what the BPFI stated last week:

"The number of mortgages approved last year was the lowest since 2017, despite a pick-up in activity in the final quarter of the year, according to figures from Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI).

During 2020, 43,151 mortgages worth €10.3 billion were approved. The value of these mortgages was down 6.7% compared with 2019.

The BPFI’s figures also showed that 35,617 mortgages worth almost €8.4 billion were drawn down in 2020, also the lowest figure since 2017. This was despite a 50% jump in volume compared with the third quarter of 2020.”

Link to BPFI article here: https://www.lawsociety.ie/gazette/top-stories/mortgage-approvals-at-lowest-level-since-2017/

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, in my case, I only joined on the 27th July 2020, so I'm only posting here for about 6 months. Hardly enough time for my predictions to be proved wrong yet IMO

You've been here before.
I recognize your style

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

From the same CSO link you posted in relation to the population increase:

"In April 2020, 720,100 persons were estimated to be aged 65 years and over, reflecting an increase of 90,200 persons (+14.3%), in this age group since April 2016"

How many of these over 65's are in the market for a new house?

As according to this link we have 2,183,852 people in the 25 to 54 years of age in the country by far the highest of all age ranges. A good % of these will be first time buyers. The next highest is the 15 to 24 which stands at 625,111 how many of those have not got a house and will be looking to buy one over the next 10 years or so. So we have 90k likely not to be buying and 625k likely to be buying

https://www.indexmundi.com/ireland/demographics_profile.html#:~:text=5%2C176%2C569%20(July%202020%20est.)&text=65%20years%20and%20over%3A%2013.82,383%2C592)%20(2020%20est.)&text=total%20population%3A%2099.8%20male(s,)%2Ffemale%20(2020%20est.)

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

You've been here before.
I recognize your style

100% untrue as, yes, I do have a style, and it would have been spotted

But either way, here for the debate so not too worried on peoples viewpoints on that front.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Have you a link to that?

It's in your first link to the CSO. The last bullet point:


https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2020pressreleases/pressstatementpopulationandmigrationestimatesapril2020/

Bass Reeves

DataDude wrote: »

As someone who's too young to remember the previous property crash, I was intrigued to see what the commentary was like approaching and during that time. It made me smile to see how the same old tropes of "extra cash" (SSIA vs Pandemic Savings) and lack of supply in the right areas seem to be exactly the same.

I'm not for a second suggesting the fundamentals we face today remotely resemble those of 2007, nor do I believe personally that there's any major drop in price coming. It has just made me more resolute in my belief that nobody, not even the "experts", really have any clue what's coming down the tracks!

Quotes from Daft Property experts in reports from 06/07 just as Ireland barreled towards a 50%+ reduction across the board. These are ordered from oldest to most recent to show the very slight change in mood over time.

"economic forecasts suggest that employment and incomes will continue to grow. This year also sees SSIAs starting to mature. Surveys indicate that a sizeable portion of SSIA money will find its way into the property market. Overall economic growth is expected to remain strong at over 5 per cent per annum in both 2006 and 2007. Thus, the Irish housing market should continue to be driven by strong activity levels"

"Two fundamental events justify the reacceleration in prices since this time last year. As last year drew to a close, the expected release of SSIA moneys, which began this May, became bankable as deposit leverage....So the recent price resurgence is 'fundamental' in nature: The stock of credit available for house purchase increased significantly in a short space of time, but the supply of houses in sought after areas did not. Throw more money after the same amount of goods and prices rise: It's the oldest law in economics."

"But the underlying market realities do not point to a collapse in prices either in 2007 or beyond."

"The latest Daft.ie figures show that vendors have revised their expectations for prices, as a result of weaker demand from potential buyers. But the data also continue to suggest that the most likely outcome for prices is a period of stagnation rather than significant decline."

"Selling prices are unlikely to decline sharply here for a number of reasons. First, Irish builders have cut supply immediately and radically. Second, the majority of new home developers are cash-rich after years of high retained earnings. They can afford to sit and wait for sales to materialize without having to drop prices significantly. Third, existing home-owners wishing to trade-up invariably take their homes off the market rather than sell at a discount. In some cases, they may prefer to extend or renovate their homes rather than settle for a lower price. Our guess is that prices will be unchanged to slightly down over the next six months."

Data yes you are correct. However the fundamental s were different and the assumptions made by estate agents was against a lot of other opinions out there at the time.

SSIA's were done mainly by savers. Myself and my wife had one each and only that many as our kids were not eighteen. I knew a lad that opened 4-5 putting the minimum amount in 2-3 of the ones he opened. We maxed out ours as we only had two. The estate agents assumptions was based on a biased assumption. Our toiseach virtually told people who foresaw the collapse to go away and commit suscide. There was a lot of time economists that predicted the collapse.

But there was other fudmentals. We were building 40k houses a year, banks were funding development to be complete before a housev as build. There was 100 k houses completed and in various stages of completion as the crash happened. Even with all that it was 2010-2012 where the majority of the price fall happened. Builders sat on supply that long and banks financed them.

We had a huge public finances issues as we we had increased public spending and services substantially. This was funded mainly by stamp duty and property transactions as well as vat and income taxes from the property sector. You could equate pandemic borrowings to this but this borrowings should reduce as we vaccinate population.

Banks just didn't lend to the Irish sectors. They were financing property speculation accross Europe. You were nobody unless you had 2-3 houses. Tommy the taxi drive his house in Dublin, had bought one in Wexford and was buying one in Fuengeirola.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

It's in your first link to the CSO. The last bullet point:


https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2020pressreleases/pressstatementpopulationandmigrationestimatesapril2020/

yeah I see that there it doesnt break down the other demographics I have posted already with a different link that breaks down the rest of the demographics

just to recap again
As according to this link we have 2,183,852 people in the 25 to 54 years of age in the country by far the highest of all age ranges. A good % of these will be first time buyers. The next highest is the 15 to 24 which stands at 625,111 how many of those have not got a house and will be looking to buy one over the next 10 years or so. So we have 90k likely not to be buying and 625k likely to be buying

https://www.indexmundi.com/ireland/demographics_profile.html#:~:text=5%2C176%2C569%20(July%202020%20est.)&text=65%20years%20and%20over%3A%2013.82,383%2C592)%20(2020%20est.)&text=total%20population%3A%2099.8%20male(s,)%2Ffemale%20(2020%20est.)

fliball123

well looks like I got my new dwellings completions estimates wrong it looks like there was a huge increase in completions in Q4 in 2020 data just out now. Thats some going considering the lockdown in Q4 as well

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/ndc/newdwellingcompletionsq42020/

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

well looks like I got my new dwellings completions estimates wrong it looks like there was a huge increase in completions in Q4 in 2020 data just out now. Thats some going considering the lockdown in Q4 as well

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/ndc/newdwellingcompletionsq42020/

And PropQueries was right?

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

And PropQueries was right?

I've just taken my tin-foil hat off and placed it into storage... for the time being

combat14

fliball123 wrote: »

yeah I see that there it doesnt break down the other demographics I have posted already with a different link that breaks down the rest of the demographics

just to recap again
As according to this link we have 2,183,852 people in the 25 to 54 years of age in the country by far the highest of all age ranges. A good % of these will be first time buyers. The next highest is the 15 to 24 which stands at 625,111 how many of those have not got a house and will be looking to buy one over the next 10 years or so. So we have 90k likely not to be buying and 625k likely to be buying

https://www.indexmundi.com/ireland/demographics_profile.html#:~:text=5%2C176%2C569%20(July%202020%20est.)&text=65%20years%20and%20over%3A%2013.82,383%2C592)%20(2020%20est.)&text=total%20population%3A%2099.8%20male(s,)%2Ffemale%20(2020%20est.)

so how many houses do we need to build over the next decade to fill this massive 2.2 million people demand for houses .......

2.2m / 2 per couple = 1.1m houses / 10 years = 110,000 houses urgently needed to be built every year or we are facing a cathastrope ....

but why is no one saying this then..?

average house build requirement mentionned appears to be 20-30k houses per year

so do we need all these new houses for 2.2 million people in 25-54 year age category or not........?!

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I've just taken my tin-foil hat off and placed it into storage... for the time being

stopped clock is right twice a day so with you being right here do you still think we have no supply issue?

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

stopped clock is right twice a day so with you being right here do you still think we have no supply issue?

Have I ever deviated from that viewpoint?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Have I ever deviated from that viewpoint?

In fairness no you haven't even with all the evidence that there is one

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

I've just taken my tin-foil hat off and placed it into storage... for the time being

Don't leave it in storage for too long. You can see things better wearing that tin foil hat than many others can with their rose tinted glasses!

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Exactly the same thing by other posters is routinely overlooked. By your logic, nobody here is on the level.

You are changing your tune now.

fliball123

combat14 wrote: »

so how many houses do we need to build over the next decade to fill this massive 2.2 million people demand for houses .......

2.2m / 2 per couple = 1.1m houses / 10 years = 110,000 houses urgently needed to be built every year or we are facing a cathastrope ....

but why is no one saying this then..?

average house build requirement mentionned appears to be 20-30k houses per year

so do we need all these new houses for 2.2 million people in 25-54 year age category or not........?!

I would be looking more at the range of the 15 to 24 year olds 616k in 5 - 10 years time a lot of these will be wanting a house and people have been saying 45k houses are needed a year for the next 5 years. There will be a % of the 2.2 million who are between 25 and 54 who will already have a house already and a % who dont. It kind of puts a stop to the idea that these houses were needed for the additional people coming in to the country via migration.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/47-000-homes-need-to-be-built-each-year-to-solve-housing-crisis-report-says-1.4329432?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fconstruction%2F47-000-homes-need-to-be-built-each-year-to-solve-housing-crisis-report-says-1.4329432#:~:text=As%20many%20as%2047%2C000%20houses,which%20was%2021%2C000%20last%20year.

awec

Completions up in Q4 but down overall.

Not a surprising outcome.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

You are changing your tune now.

Sorry, I don't get you? What tune am I changing?

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Sorry, I don't get you? What tune am I changing?

I'm sick of hearing about people making stuff up and spinning data - it's utter nonsense. You are wrong about this.

Exactly the same thing by other posters is routinely overlooked. By your logic, nobody here is on the level.

First you say it doesnt happen then you say others are doing it and its overlooked, which is it.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

I would be looking more at the range of the 15 to 24 year olds 616k in 5 - 10 years time a lot of these will be wanting a house and people have been saying 45k houses are needed a year for the next 5 years. There will be a % of the 2.2 million who are between 25 and 54 who will already have a house already and a % who dont. It kind of puts a stop to the idea that these houses were needed for the additional people coming in to the country via migration.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/47-000-homes-need-to-be-built-each-year-to-solve-housing-crisis-report-says-1.4329432?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fconstruction%2F47-000-homes-need-to-be-built-each-year-to-solve-housing-crisis-report-says-1.4329432#:~:text=As%20many%20as%2047%2C000%20houses,which%20was%2021%2C000%20last%20year.

That article is on the 13th August 2020.

On the 19th August 2020, the exact same opinion writer changed tune and stated: "Claim that 47,000 new homes needed a year isn’t credible"

Link to his follow up article one week later here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/claim-that-47-000-new-homes-needed-a-year-isn-t-credible-1.4333525

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

First you say it doesnt happen then you say others are doing it and its overlooked, which is it.

I hve been consistent on this. I don't believe Props spins data any more than say Marius or Timing Belt or Bass Reeves. Sometimes I think he's guilty of confirmation bias and sees more in a headline than is actually there. We all do it, I do it, as do the other posters.

In replying to your post, I was saying that if you are going to accuse Props of spinning data, and call him out on it, then you should hold other posters to the same standard. If you don't you're not on the level.

Eg Bass Reeves saying property prices rose by 6% last year. Or Timing Belt saying that the data behind the claim saying 7/10 people in Ireland live in under occupied houses is explained by old people in rural areas.

I think there is a huge amount of hypocrisy but I don't believe anybody intentionally spins data.

DataDude

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Data yes you are correct. However the fundamental s were different and the assumptions made by estate agents was against a lot of other opinions out there at the time.

SSIA's were done mainly by savers. Myself and my wife had one each and only that many as our kids were not eighteen. I knew a lad that opened 4-5 putting the minimum amount in 2-3 of the ones he opened. We maxed out ours as we only had two. The estate agents assumptions was based on a biased assumption. Our toiseach virtually told people who foresaw the collapse to go away and commit suscide. There was a lot of time economists that predicted the collapse.

But there was other fudmentals. We were building 40k houses a year, banks were funding development to be complete before a housev as build. There was 100 k houses completed and in various stages of completion as the crash happened. Even with all that it was 2010-2012 where the majority of the price fall happened. Builders sat on supply that long and banks financed them.

We had a huge public finances issues as we we had increased public spending and services substantially. This was funded mainly by stamp duty and property transactions as well as vat and income taxes from the property sector. You could equate pandemic borrowings to this but this borrowings should reduce as we vaccinate population.

Banks just didn't lend to the Irish sectors. They were financing property speculation accross Europe. You were nobody unless you had 2-3 houses. Tommy the taxi drive his house in Dublin, had bought one in Wexford and was buying one in Fuengeirola.

Not disagreeing the fundamentals aren't different.

Just more observing that both sides on here tend to come in, dismiss the others as wrong and "here are the real facts" with remarkable levels of certainty. The reality is (I think!), that if you own house or make a living selling houses you're probably a bull, if you want to buy a house you're probably a bear. Each will find and interpret the data that suits their perspective (consciously or unconsciously). I'm not sure there really are unbiased observers, and I certainly doubt many are on this forum. It would probably be a more useful place if everyone had to declare vested interests!

I doubt I'll be on here long enough to confirm my thesis, but I suspect the bulls will continue to bulls throughout the cycle, right up until the point of the next collapse. Things will recover, the bulls will again find stats to back up their point and explain with remarkable clarity how they can now see why they were wrong the last time but this time is different. Exactly the same on the bears!

Those who are claiming credit for being "right" at the moment are right by fluke of timing and will be wrong when the time comes. They won't successfully interpret the data and dramatically change their predictions ahead of the next change in direction.

I understand all this is unavoidable, and what else can you expect from an internet forum, but I guess it just struck me when someone genuinely came here looking for advice earlier.

It's also unfortunate (with any debate) when only one side gets any air time in the media. Sadly anyone who's going to be bothered writing a 2 page article for the Irish Times or Daft on house prices is almost certainly going to have a personal interest in higher prices.

Just as aside: On your point many economists calling the downturn last time (I can't comment on how true that is and in particular how "mainstream" it was back then), I think there have been a fair few over the last year including those in the banks saying the same this time? I do remember central estimates of 20% drops over next 1-3 years etc.

Also on point of SSIA's - not sure what point you're making there. Are you not saying this was a temporary windfall for many people, which supported a very mini revival/extending of the bubble in early 07? Isn't this almost a complete parallel to unexpected additional (but unsustainable) savings from the lockdowns which is being credited to a sharp uptick in Q4 2020 following a very weak year?

Bass Reeves

Data
The point I was making on SSIA's was that most people doing them were savers. Savers do not rush out and spend straight away. Opinion at the time that it would all go into property was an incorrect assumption to make.

Pandemic savings are accross the board. They are savings by both spenders and savers, therefore a higher percentage will get spend where is anyone's guess.

Hubertj

So are prices going to fall or rise or stay the same?

DataDude

Hubertj wrote: »

So are prices going to fall or rise or stay the same?

Stay the exact same - 100% sure. I have all the data but can't bring myself to type it out.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

That article is on the 13th August 2020.

On the 19th August 2020, the exact same opinion writer changed tune and stated: "Claim that 47,000 new homes needed a year isn’t credible"

Link to his follow up article one week later here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/claim-that-47-000-new-homes-needed-a-year-isn-t-credible-1.4333525

Maybe, maybe not we dont know. What we do know is the figures of people here aged between 25 and 54 is 2.2million we dont know how many have a house. We know the figure of 616k of 15 to 24 years olds I dont think it would be too far of a stretch to say that the majority of these will need a house in the future. So that is where the current estimates should be coming from, you have you 3 people per house rule that you like to use that would suggest in the next 10 years at at least 200k (616 / 3 and rounded down) houses need to be built. So 20K a year would be what I would estimate is needed

Now thats assuming no one in the 25 to 54 need a new house (which I highly doubt)
We are at zero when it comes to nett migration over the 10 years (which I highly doubt)

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

Maybe, maybe not we dont know. What we do know is the figures of people here aged between 25 and 54 is 2.2million we dont know how many have a house. We know the figure of 616k of 15 to 24 years olds I dont think it would be too far of a stretch to say that the majority of these will need a house in the future. So that is where the current estimates should be coming from, you have you 3 people per house rule that you like to use that would suggest in the next 10 years at at least 200k (616 / 3 and rounded down) houses need to be built. So 20K a year would be what I would estimate is needed

Now thats assuming no one in the 25 to 54 need a new house (which I highly doubt)
We are at zero when it comes to nett migration over the 10 years (which I highly doubt)

I may be misinterpreting, but are you not also assuming that nobody who owns a house dies?

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

Stay the exact same - 100% sure. I have all the data but can't bring myself to type it out.

I’ll take your word for it!

Marius34

fliball123 wrote: »

I would be looking more at the range of the 15 to 24 year olds 616k in 5 - 10 years time a lot of these will be wanting a house and people have been saying 45k houses are needed a year for the next 5 years. There will be a % of the 2.2 million who are between 25 and 54 who will already have a house already and a % who dont. It kind of puts a stop to the idea that these houses were needed for the additional people coming in to the country via migration.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/47-000-homes-need-to-be-built-each-year-to-solve-housing-crisis-report-says-1.4329432?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fconstruction%2F47-000-homes-need-to-be-built-each-year-to-solve-housing-crisis-report-says-1.4329432#:~:text=As%20many%20as%2047%2C000%20houses,which%20was%2021%2C000%20last%20year.

45K looks to high to me, haven't seen such reports. Most reports points in the range from somewhere around 26K to 40K.

fliball123

DataDude wrote: »

I may be misinterpreting, but are you not also assuming that nobody who owns a house dies?

There are more people up and coming year on year than dying even last year with covid we had more births than deaths this has been the case for 100 years. So yes I am going on the assuption that no one dies as well.

We have to have a starting point.

So 3 assumptions

No one owning a house dying - highly unlikely
Nett migration of zero - highly unlikey
24 to 54 years olds currently all have house - highly unlikely

20k a year is going on these 3 assumptions

fliball123

Marius34 wrote: »

45K looks to high to me, haven't seen such reports. Most reports points in the range from somewhere around 26K to 40K.

Yeah I was just pointing out what others where putting as a projection. The honest answer is going on the current age demographics in the country we need about 20k a year but it assumes nett migration of zero over the next 10 years and that all 25 to 54 years already have a house ..both of which are unlikely but you can only go on data that you have.

JimmyVik

DataDude wrote: »

Stay the exact same - 100% sure. I have all the data but can't bring myself to type it out.

Im with you. Clear as day in my data. Too much to type out, and pe3ople wouldnt understand it anyway. Far too complex for them.
I always find it amusing the effort people got through top get links to support a position they have, even when they know that its just rubbish at the end of the day.

Marius34

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah I was just pointing out what others where putting as a projection. The honest answer is going on the current age demographics in the country we need about 20k a year but it assumes nett migration of zero over the next 10 years and that all 25 to 54 years already have a house ..both of which are unlikely but you can only go on data that you have.

Understood, actually most reports already include age component. Definitely Central Bank does, so if we take central bank projections, age impact is calculated for us.

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

There are more people up and coming year on year than dying even last year with covid we had more births than deaths this has been the case for 100 years. So yes I am going on the assuption that no one dies as well.

We have to have a starting point.

So 3 assumptions

No one owning a house dying - highly unlikely
Nett migration of zero - highly unlikey
24 to 54 years olds currently all have house - highly unlikely

20k a year is going on these 3 assumptions

I might be very confused here but I don't follow. Take out 24 to 54 for a second (big simplification but bare with me). Surely it is too simplistic to say 600k people between 18-24 will buy house in next 10 years = 200k houses needed = 20k per year?

Is the figure of interest not ((number of people per annum coming into house buying age) - (number of people dying))/3. So if we ignore 25-54 it would be more like

(60k per year becoming house buying age) - (35k deaths) = 25k per annum growth in "potential home owners"/3 = 8.3k?

I know the above is ridiculously simplistic but just using to help myself understand the point you're making.

fliball123

DataDude wrote: »

I might be very confused here but I don't follow. Take out 24 to 54 for a second (big simplification but bare with me). Surely it is too simplistic to say 600k people between 18-24 will buy house in next 10 years = 200k houses needed = 20k per year?

Is the figure of interest not ((number of people per annum coming into house buying age) - (number of people dying))/3. So if we ignore 25-54 it would be more like

(60k per year becoming house buying age) - (35k deaths) = 25k per annum growth in "potential home owners per annum"/3 = 8.3k?

I know the above is ridiculously simplistic but just using to help myself understand the point you're making.

See this is the thing you have to make assumptions as the data isnt there I mean if you take out the 24 to 54 year olds out that is 2.2 million a lot of which do not have a house. Also another assumption is the year at which a person is at house buying age that has so many caveats it would be very hard to calculate it. Not mention I take it the 35k deaths you have down are for 2020 would that be skewed by Covid related deaths?

I think I will leave it to the experts but even these make assumptions when getting their figures

Here are a few not one is saying under 20k can anyone find one that has under 20k??


https://www.propertyindustry.ie/Sectors/PII/PII.nsf/vPages/Publications~estimating-irelands-long-run-housing-demand---april-2019-05-04-2019/$file/Estimating+Ireland%E2%80%99s+long-run+housing+demand+-+April+2019+FINAL.pdf

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0826/1161322-home-building-market/

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/around-90-new-homes-day-21065718

Graham

Average age of a first time buyer is 34.

fliball123

Graham wrote: »

Average age of a first time buyer is 34.

cool so a good % of that 2.2 Million would have to be added on thanks for that Graham

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

See this is the thing you have to make assumptions as the data isnt there I mean if you take out the 24 to 54 year olds out that is 2.2 million a lot of which do not have a house. Also another assumption is the year at which a person is at house buying age that has so many caveats it would be very hard to calculate it.

I think I will leave it to the experts but even these make assumptions when getting their figures

Here are a few not one is saying under 20k

propertyindustry.ie/Sectors/PII/PII.nsf/vPages/Publications~estimating-irelands-long-run-housing-demand---april-2019-05-04-2019/$file/Estimating+Ireland’s+long-run+housing+demand+-+April+2019+FINAL.pdf


https://www.propertyindustry.ie/Sectors/PII/PII.nsf/vPages/Publications~estimating-irelands-long-run-housing-demand---april-2019-05-04-2019/$file/Estimating+Ireland%E2%80%99s+long-run+housing+demand+-+April+2019+FINAL.pdf

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0826/1161322-home-building-market/

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/around-90-new-homes-day-21065718

I don't disagree with the estimates, but I do think it is heavily based on migration. Also on your point re 25-54 year olds buying, true some of the won't be homeowners and will buy but this implicitly means people in younger age also won't buy unless we assume a shift in home ownership rates (which on my understanding is moving slightly towards few homes needed as people are living at home for longer). The demographics bit is likely to be incredibly slow moving and easy to predict. The big unknown in any calculation is net migration.

Ignoring the slow moving demographic shifts for a minute
Population growth April 2018 - April 2019 - +65k (34k migration, 30k natural increase)
Population growth April 2019 - April 2020 - +56k (29k migration, 27k natural increase)

Based very loosely on the above I'd say our natural need for new homes is probably c. 10-15k per annum and need due to migration projected to be for another c.10-15k hence general predictions being around 20-30k per annum total.

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

cool so a good % of that 2.2 Million would have to be added on thanks for that Graham

Incorrect. It's not additive in that way.

fliball123

DataDude wrote: »

I don't disagree with the estimates, but I do think it is heavily based on migration. Also on your point re 25-54 year olds buying, true some of the won't be homeowners and will buy but this implicitly means people in younger age also won't buy unless we assume a shift in home ownership rates (which on my understanding is moving slightly towards few homes needed as people are living at home for longer). The demographics bit is likely to be incredibly slow moving and easy to predict. The big unknown in any calculation is net migration.

Ignoring the slow moving demographic shifts for a minute
Population growth in 2019 - +65k (34k migration, 30k natural increase)
Population growth in 2020 - +56k (29k migration, 27k natural increase)

Based very loosely on the above I'd say our natural need for new homes is probably c. 10-15k per annum and need due to migration projected to be for another c.10-15k hence general predictions being around 20-30k per annum total.

Thats also assuming there was not an existing demand. One of three links I provided (the first one) state that demand upped in the years from 2013 onwards. I cant stand over that but if you look at the first link I put up its one of their key findings so maybe there are a lot more people in that 25 to 54 demographic who have not got a house yet.

PropQueries

DataDude wrote: »

I might be very confused here but I don't follow. Take out 24 to 54 for a second (big simplification but bare with me). Surely it is too simplistic to say 600k people between 18-24 will buy house in next 10 years = 200k houses needed = 20k per year?

Is the figure of interest not ((number of people per annum coming into house buying age) - (number of people dying))/3. So if we ignore 25-54 it would be more like

(60k per year becoming house buying age) - (35k deaths) = 25k per annum growth in "potential home owners"/3 = 8.3k?

I know the above is ridiculously simplistic but just using to help myself understand the point you're making.

Why did you divide by 3 at the end?

But, keep at it. It looks like a person would need several doctorates in statistics to make sense of all the data. But, my rule of thumb is that if something doesn't make sense, it most likely isn't, no matter what the data is currently telling us.

For example, it took us 20 years to get to today's understanding by the former governor of the central bank, where he looked at the data and came to the conclusion that:

"Rankings that put Ireland as the most prosperous state in the European Union are wrong, former Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan says. Taking issue with headline economic data, he says the State’s position is more accurately somewhere between 8th and 12th among the EU-27."

Basically stating the obvious that every single non-statistics person in Ireland has been assuming for the past 20 years

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-economy-ranks-only-mid-table-in-eu-honohan-1.4476081

Bass Reeves

DataDude wrote: »

I might be very confused here but I don't follow. Take out 24 to 54 for a second (big simplification but bare with me). Surely it is too simplistic to say 600k people between 18-24 will buy house in next 10 years = 200k houses needed = 20k per year?

Is the figure of interest not ((number of people per annum coming into house buying age) - (number of people dying))/3. So if we ignore 25-54 it would be more like

(60k per year becoming house buying age) - (35k deaths) = 25k per annum growth in "potential home owners"/3 = 8.3k?

I know the above is ridiculously simplistic but just using to help myself understand the point you're making.

There is about 60-65k people in any yearly age group between 15 and 35 age group. The death rate is about 28-29k people per year. Net migration is about 33k/ year.

Assuming that these trends continue and the only real variable is migration it means we need to provide housing for 65-70k people per year. Assuming a house to two people we need 35k units/ year. At 3 we need 23k units / year. Historicall people only bought houses when they formed relationships or were around the 40 age group. Nowadays people tend to want there own space earlier and form small household units.

Minimum I see is 30k units per year

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

Thats also assuming there was not an existing demand. One of two of the links provided state that demand upped in the years from 2013 onwards. I cant stand over that but if you look at the first link I put up its one of their key findings so maybe there are a lot more people in that 25 to 54 demographic who have not got a house yet.

I'm sure there is pent up demand. And everyone would like what you are implying to happen - i.e. for there to be a fundamental shift in our society which sees increasing numbers of 18-35 year old's getting out of their family home and buying a house sooner and thus leading to a greater demand for housing from that demographic, not due to growth in their absolute numbers but due to growth in the percentage of those people buying their own homes...Brave call

https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/housing-in-ireland-changing-trends-in-headship-rates-and-tenure-by-age-group/#:~:text=This%20decline%20in%20home%20ownership,less%20than%2061%25%20in%202016.