2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

DataDude

Bass Reeves wrote: »

There is about 60-65k people in any yearly age group between 15 and 35 age group. The death rate is about 28-29k people per year. Net migration is about 33k/ year.

Assuming that these trends continue and the only real variable is migration it means we need to provide housing for 65-70k people per year. Assuming a house to two people we need 35k units/ year. At 3 we need 23k units / year. Historicall people only bought houses when they formed relationships or were around the 40 age group. Nowadays people tend to want there own space earlier and form small household units.

Minimum I see is 30k units per year

Completely agree with this by the way. Not denying that we need to build many many more houses (as others have suggested before). Just it's a fact that ~50% of best estimate expected growth is coming from migration (which again I agree will continue into the future). I was just disproving a suggestion that we need 20K+ for demographics alone and any migration goes on top of that.

fliball123

DataDude wrote: »

I'm sure there is pent up demand. And everyone would like what you are implying to happen - i.e. for there to be a fundamental shift in our society which sees increasing numbers of 18-35 year old's getting out of their family home and buying a house sooner and thus leading to a greater demand for housing from that demographic, not due to growth in their absolute numbers but due to growth in the percentage of those people buying their own homes...Brave call

https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/housing-in-ireland-changing-trends-in-headship-rates-and-tenure-by-age-group/#:~:text=This%20decline%20in%20home%20ownership,less%20than%2061%25%20in%202016.

So I think the 20k + would be needed for the forseeable future at the very least. I mean I am sure a lot of people even after this link you have put up (data up to 2016)would of decided not to buy due to brexit which IMO is one of the reasons why we seen a slow down prior to 2020 but there is no data out there to prove that so its just my own opinion on it.

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

For example, it took us 20 years to get to today's understanding by the former governor of the central bank, where he looked at the data and came to the conclusion that:

"Rankings that put Ireland as the most prosperous state in the European Union are wrong, former Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan says. Taking issue with headline economic data, he says the State’s position is more accurately somewhere between 8th and 12th among the EU-27."

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As anyone that's ever lived in a Nordic country will tell you of course they're wrong, just like when the whole world laughed at the leprechaun economics a few years back.

Technocrats spinning with graphs can show all they like but lived experience tells me we're behind some of those countries.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

I'm sure there is pent up demand. And everyone would like what you are implying to happen - i.e. for there to be a fundamental shift in our society which sees increasing numbers of 18-35 year old's getting out of their family home and buying a house sooner and thus leading to a greater demand for housing from that demographic, not due to growth in their absolute numbers but due to growth in the percentage of those people buying their own homes...Brave call

https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/housing-in-ireland-changing-trends-in-headship-rates-and-tenure-by-age-group/#:~:text=This%20decline%20in%20home%20ownership,less%20than%2061%25%20in%202016.

No doubt there is pent up supply too. Very little discussion on this anywhere.

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

So I think the 20k + would be needed for the forseeable future at the very least. I mean I am sure a lot of people even after this link you have put up (data up to 2016)would of decided not to buy due to brexit which IMO is one of the reasons why we seen a slow down prior to 2020 but there is no data out there to prove that so its just my own opinion on it.

Agreed on 20k+ (assuming continued migration, which is a fair assumption in the longer term although given we likely had much less this year I think the net shortfall for 2020/21 will be less than is being implied). Disagreed on latter point. I know I have just preached about how everyone on this forum is too certain about everything they say - but I'd be willing to stake a fairly chunky amount of money that two of the beliefs that you have implied:

A) House prices will rise in the coming years
Home ownership rates will increase in those under the age of 40 (and it was only falling due to concerns about Brexit??)

Will not both come true. They are almost mutually exclusive.

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

There is about 60-65k people in any yearly age group between 15 and 35 age group. The death rate is about 28-29k people per year. Net migration is about 33k/ year.

Assuming that these trends continue and the only real variable is migration it means we need to provide housing for 65-70k people per year. Assuming a house to two people we need 35k units/ year. At 3 we need 23k units / year. Historicall people only bought houses when they formed relationships or were around the 40 age group. Nowadays people tend to want there own space earlier and form small household units.

Minimum I see is 30k units per year

Unless the net inward migration numbers actually reverse and turn negative in a big way. We have one of the highest number of eastern european populations as a percentage of our overall population in the EU. They're not here for the weather, so any reduction in job opportunities in e.g. retail, tourism, construction etc. and many will leave and leave quickly IMO

I also assume many of the pre-covid projections for housing demand from the existing population going forward included demand from many of these immigrants already living here.

According to the Economist magazine this week titled: How the pandemic reversed old migration patterns in Europe:

"Exact numbers are hard to come by. An estimated 1.3m Romanians went back to Romania—equivalent to three times the population of its second-biggest city. Perhaps 500,000 Bulgarians returned to Bulgaria—a huge number for a country of 7m. Lithuania has seen more citizens arriving than leaving for the first time in years. Other measures show the same. In Warsaw, dating apps brim with returning Poles looking for socially un-distanced fun. Politicians in eastern Europe had long complained of a “brain drain” as their brightest left in search of higher wages in the west. Now the pandemic, a shifting economy and changing work patterns are bringing many of them back. A “brain gain” has begun."

Link to economist article here: https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/01/30/how-the-pandemic-reversed-old-migration-patterns-in-europe

Browney7

schmittel wrote: »

No doubt there is pent up supply too. Very little discussion on this anywhere.

Would imagine so - landlords who may have wished to sell with tenants in situ being unable to sell as they can't evict for sale grounds.

There is a slowdown in the property chain also due to Covid you'd expect - only data we have is that mortgage drawdowns for movers/trader uppers has dropped from 11349 in 2019 to 8911 in 2020 (so this reduction in activity has contributed to less properties being on the market).

The impacts of Covid on the demand won't be felt evenly throughout the country and the CSO stats are bringing this out when the regional price indices are examined - Mid East price growth has been strong with Dublin flat for example.

Hard to guage supply

MacronvFrugals

Folks, is this waffle from SF or if we pass CETA could REIT's and funds sue Ireland over potential regulation or increased taxes?

You want a tax on vulture funds? Sorry lads, we might get sued. How about stricter environmental regulations for large carbon emitters? Again apologies, we might lose in court.

It should be clear that this will have a chilling effect on democracy at a time when many see a political establishment that is responsive to the desires of well-heeled corporate interests, but not the needs of ordinary citizens.

The vote on Ceta will be the litmus test for the Greens. No party that considers itself democratic, let alone concerned for the environment, could possibly support its ratification.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40219565.html

DataDude

PropQueries wrote: »

Why did you divide by 3 at the end?

But, keep at it. It looks like a person would need several doctorates in statistics to make sense of all the data. But, my rule of thumb is that if something doesn't make sense, it most likely isn't, no matter what the data is currently telling us.

For example, it took us 20 years to get to today's understanding by the former governor of the central bank, where he looked at the data and came to the conclusion that:

"Rankings that put Ireland as the most prosperous state in the European Union are wrong, former Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan says. Taking issue with headline economic data, he says the State’s position is more accurately somewhere between 8th and 12th among the EU-27."

Basically stating the obvious that every single non-statistics person in Ireland has been assuming for the past 20 years

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-economy-ranks-only-mid-table-in-eu-honohan-1.4476081

Dividing by 3 at the end was just continuing with a previously made assumption of an average of 3 people per household (I understand the actual number is lower and falling). So 25k additional people "seeking houses" leads to a need for 25k/3 = 8.3k additional houses under that assumption.

I bought my house 2 years ago, it's in a fairly high demand area. A house further down the road that is virtually identical in layout, similar size (both houses have extensions), but definitely is finished nicer than the one we bought, is after going up on the market for over 25% more than the asking price for the house we bought. You could get my house up to the standard of that house for about a third of the gap in asking I reckon. I can't see for the life of me where the asking price is coming from. Can't wait to see what it sells for.

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Folks, is this waffle from SF or if we pass CETA could REIT's and funds sue Ireland over potential regulation or increased taxes?





https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-40219565.html

I’d prefer to read a balanced objective analysis of the proposed agreement before deciding if I think it is a good idea or not. Sinn Fein don’t have any credibility. Question would be the circumstances under which an entity could take a case. I suspect this part of the treaty is being exaggerated by the usual suspects. Do the positive elements outweigh the possible negatives etc?

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

I’d prefer to read a balanced objective analysis of the proposed agreement before deciding if I think it is a good idea or not. Sinn Fein don’t have any credibility. Question would be the circumstances under which an entity could take a case. I suspect this part of the treaty is being exaggerated by the usual suspects. Do the positive elements outweigh the possible negatives etc?

Once the benefits/negatives are debated and not put to a vote Christmas week when we were all concerned with Brexit, cause that's what was happening until some within the Greens kicked up a fuss.

Timing belt

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Data
The point I was making on SSIA's was that most people doing them were savers. Savers do not rush out and spend straight away. Opinion at the time that it would all go into property was an incorrect assumption to make.

Pandemic savings are accross the board. They are savings by both spenders and savers, therefore a higher percentage will get spend where is anyone's guess.

You need to step back and ask why savings have increased during the pandemic and why this is the case globally. A lot of people assume it is because people do not have the opportunity to spend with the lockdowns which will contribute to the effect but I still think the main reason is that people are unsure of future events and how it will impact them financially and this is the reason for the increase in savings. This has been the case during every recession and in part contributes to the recession as when people save they stop spending which slows the economy down more.

The 08 crisis came about because the financial system was drained of liquidity and came to a stop and then the house of cards started to fall. A similar event took place in march 2020 but the central banks stepped in and injected liquidity and got the system moving again but no-one has no idea for how long this will last.

The economic forecasts are all for growth in the coming years once Covid is put to bed but there is no guarantee that this will be the case as the financial system is very fragile at the moment and it would not take a lot to have the house of cards crashing down again.

My view on property is that we will see and increase in prices in the next 1-2 years as along as the financial system does not crash.... are house prices or rent levels sustainable at the level they are at is the important question because if you think they are then there is no crash in property coming if you think they are not sustainable then a crash is coming.

In the mean time should you purchase a property all depends on your personal circumstances and whether you believe house prices are sustainable... For example if If you are paying high rent you may be financially better off buying even if the property value drops in a year or two.

There is no one size fits all and any decision is personal and based on a risk/benefit analysis.

Bubbaclaus

So 20.6k properties built last year. Pretty close to estimates of 19.5-20k. Certainly higher than the 16k some posters were suggesting a few months back.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/home-building-survives-covid-but-still-cannot-match-buyers-demand-40053117.html

PropQueries

Looks like DCC may break all their previous records with a developer seeking up to €964k per two bed apartment from the council. Looking at the DCC track record to date, there’s a better than good chance he will receive it IMO

“Johnny Ronan’s Ronan Group is planning to sell 101 apartments at an estimated cost of €66million for social housing to Dublin City Council as part of his plan to construct the two tallest buildings in the country.

The planned package includes one two-bedroom apartment with an indicative cost of €964,030 to the council as part of the Ronan Group’s Waterfront South Central scheme for Dublin’s docklands.

The estimated prices rise to €964,030 for a two-bedroom 86.6m2 unit, with one-bedroom apartments potentially costing the council a variety of prices ranging from €419,020 to €637,705.“

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ronan-plans-to-sell-960-000-apartment-to-council-for-social-housing-1.4476385

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Looks like DCC may break all their previous records with a developer seeking up to €964k per two bed apartment from the council. Looking at the DCC track record to date, there’s a better than good chance he will receive it IMO

“Johnny Ronan’s Ronan Group is planning to sell 101 apartments at an estimated cost of €66million for social housing to Dublin City Council as part of his plan to construct the two tallest buildings in the country.

The planned package includes one two-bedroom apartment with an indicative cost of €964,030 to the council as part of the Ronan Group’s Waterfront South Central scheme for Dublin’s docklands.

The estimated prices rise to €964,030 for a two-bedroom 86.6m2 unit, with one-bedroom apartments potentially costing the council a variety of prices ranging from €419,020 to €637,705.“

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ronan-plans-to-sell-960-000-apartment-to-council-for-social-housing-1.4476385

Crazy if DCC pay this but I wouldn't be surprised if they did as this is what people are looking for high rise buildings that make Dublin look like a real city... There is a thread already dedicated to this:
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057992300&page=12

mcsean2163

Bruno Millions Geisha wrote: »

Jesus wept.Heads need to roll if thar happens.

If it goes ahead, it can't our ranking on the corruption index.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

My view on property is that we will see and increase in prices in the next 1-2 years as along as the financial system does not crash.... are house prices or rent levels sustainable at the level they are at is the important question because if you think they are then there is no crash in property coming if you think they are not sustainable then a crash is coming.

House prices are sustainable at the current level if the taxpayer continues to be the buyer of last resort.

If there is a change of mind in government, or a change of mind in the taxpayer, then the prices are not sustainable at current levels.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

House prices are sustainable at the current level if the taxpayer continues to be the buyer of last resort.

If there is a change of mind in government, or a change of mind in the taxpayer, then the prices are not sustainable at current levels.

If the government stopped HAP or buying houses for social housing then that would have a major impact on the market and would see a large increase in homelessness something which I personally can't see the government or the tax payer agreeing to.

Timing belt

Breakdown of house completions for 2020 (Source: CSO)

I was surprised to see that 47% of apartments built in Ireland were all in Carlow and not Dublin.


Apartment Scheme house Single house Total
Dublin (City Council) 1901 278 80 2259
Kildare (County Council) 18 1477 168 1663
South Dublin Co. Co. (County Council) 465 1110 39 1614
Meath (County Council) 53 1134 325 1512
Cork (County Council) 65 803 559 1427
Fingal (County Council) 223 1080 82 1385
Wicklow (County Council) 136 785 125 1046
Cork (City Council) 157 819 56 1032
Galway (County Council) 34 391 430 855
Dun Laoire/Rathdown (County Council) 396 377 50 823
Wexford (County Council) 33 317 274 624
Louth (County Council) 26 478 114 618
Donegal (County Council) 68 217 289 574
Kerry (County Council) 55 294 225 574
Limerick City and County 34 284 201 519
Waterford City and County 53 297 129 479
Mayo (County Council) 20 160 243 423
Clare (County Council) 24 156 218 398
Kilkenny (County Council) 39 197 145 381
Laois (County Council) 26 189 119 334
Tipperary County 22 107 187 316
Westmeath (County Council) 20 147 126 293
Monaghan (County Council) 23 72 127 222
Galway (City Council) 32 156 18 206
Cavan (County Council) 14 67 118 199
Offaly (County Council) 2 72 123 197
Carlow (County Council) 5 116 73 194
Sligo (County Council) 56 42 81 179
Roscommon (County Council) 5 48 118 171
Longford (County Council) 9 54 59 122
Leitrim (County Council) 0 1 36 37

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

If the government stopped HAP or buying houses for social housing then that would have a major impact on the market and would see a large increase in homelessness something which I personally can't see the government or the tax payer agreeing to.

Not suggesting they should abandon their social housing responsibilities.

Just that they should be a bit more price sensitive. i.e if they see a developer is struggling to shift them on open market at X, no need for government to work off X as market rates.

Also if developers cannot sell their houses at X because FTBers cannot afford X, I don't think the government should say don't worry, we will buy 30% of it at X so that you can afford it.

The government is currently the buyer of last resort whatever way you look at it.

ongarite

I'm amazed at the Wicklow figures.
I know it's a county with strict planning laws but that's such a low number for a county right in the Dublin commuter belt.

Timing belt

ongarite wrote: »

I'm amazed at the Wicklow figures.
I know it's a county with strict planning laws but that's such a low number for a county right in the Dublin commuter belt.

Its also amazing that only 15% of housing units were built in Dublin especially seeing as this is where the majority of the population exists and where housing is required unless everyone moves down the country to WFH.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

Its also amazing that only 15% of housing units were built in Dublin especially seeing as this is where the majority of the population exists and where housing is required unless everyone moves down the country to WFH.

Kind of logical if you accept that Dublin market was slowing down relative to the rest of the country in 2018/9, and developers were siting on unsold stock.

Graham

Timing belt wrote: »

Breakdown of house completions for 2020 (Source: CSO)

I was surprised to see that 47% of apartments built in Ireland were all in Carlow and not Dublin.

Something looks very off with those figures TB.

Belt

ongarite wrote: »

I'm amazed at the Wicklow figures.
I know it's a county with strict planning laws but that's such a low number for a county right in the Dublin commuter belt.

Same, with Meath it had less than Leitrim, 5 times less than Cavan and 7 times less than Carlow.

Kildare also quite low at around 500. Why arent we building in areas where you would likely see demand?

Timing belt

Graham wrote: »

Something looks very off with those figures TB.

You are correct I went back and checked them and I obviously messed up sorting the data.. here is the revised data set....

Dublin (City Council) 1901 278 80 2259
Kildare (County Council) 18 1477 168 1663
South Dublin Co. Co. (County Council) 465 1110 39 1614
Meath (County Council) 53 1134 325 1512
Cork (County Council) 65 803 559 1427
Fingal (County Council) 223 1080 82 1385
Wicklow (County Council) 136 785 125 1046
Cork (City Council) 157 819 56 1032
Galway (County Council) 34 391 430 855
Dun Laoire/Rathdown (County Council) 396 377 50 823
Wexford (County Council) 33 317 274 624
Louth (County Council) 26 478 114 618
Donegal (County Council) 68 217 289 574
Kerry (County Council) 55 294 225 574
Limerick City and County 34 284 201 519
Waterford City and County 53 297 129 479
Mayo (County Council) 20 160 243 423
Clare (County Council) 24 156 218 398
Kilkenny (County Council) 39 197 145 381
Laois (County Council) 26 189 119 334
Tipperary County 22 107 187 316
Westmeath (County Council) 20 147 126 293
Monaghan (County Council) 23 72 127 222
Galway (City Council) 32 156 18 206
Cavan (County Council) 14 67 118 199
Offaly (County Council) 2 72 123 197
Carlow (County Council) 5 116 73 194
Sligo (County Council) 56 42 81 179
Roscommon (County Council) 5 48 118 171
Longford (County Council) 9 54 59 122
Leitrim (County Council) 0 1 36 37

Timing belt

ongarite wrote: »

I'm amazed at the Wicklow figures.
I know it's a county with strict planning laws but that's such a low number for a county right in the Dublin commuter belt.

The data I shared first was incorrect I have updated it now... Wicklow had 1046
housing units in 2020... Sorry

Timing belt

Belt wrote: »

Same, with Meath it had less than Leitrim, 5 times less than Cavan and 7 times less than Carlow.

Kildare also quite low at around 500. Why arent we building in areas where you would likely see demand?

My error I have updated the data set now.... sorry

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

My error I have updated the data set now.... sorry

You don’t work for the DCC housing department by any chance?

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

It doesn't seem logical to me... but hey what do I know there must be a demand in Carlow to build 47% of the countries apartments there and it's not just a case of Dublin Spreading out further and further into the country side with people commuting longer distances... At least they have the M9/M7 to get them into Dublin quickly if that is where the work is and they can't work from home.

When you put it like that I agree it does not seem logical.

Hadn't actually looked at your figures too closely, but as it turns out neither had you.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

When you put it like that I agree it does not seem logical.

Hadn't actually looked at your figures too closely, but as it turns out neither had you.

I messed up sorting the data.... Have updated the post now with the correct data.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

You don’t work for the DCC housing department by any chance?

No I get paid by EA's to come on here and post... hope I don't get fired for my stupid mistake :P

Graham

Timing belt wrote: »

You are correct I went back and checked them and I obviously messed up sorting the data.

Pity, it would have been interesting to see the Manhattan-like skyline against the Barrow in Carlow

Timing belt

Graham wrote: »

Pity, it would have been interesting to see the Manhattan-like skyline against the Barrow in Carlow

Maybe that is the answer... high rise in Carlow must be cheaper than the Dublin Dock lands

Timing belt

2020 house completions Breakdown by Eircode

Row Labels 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 Grand Total
W91: Naas 187 139 248 297 871
H91: Galway 168 100 174 287 729
A92: Drogheda 159 190 132 218 699
D24: Dublin 24 115 44 95 436 690
D15: Dublin 15 81 119 135 276 611
W23: Celbridge 123 89 146 189 547
D13: Dublin 13 296 153 28 67 544
T12: Cork Southside 120 63 164 142 489
V94: Limerick 118 62 122 183 485
K78: Lucan 124 77 91 192 484
C15: Navan 119 111 142 106 478
A67: Wicklow 106 94 78 95 373
X91: Waterford 112 68 85 94 359
T23: Cork Northside 83 53 108 113 357
A91: Dundalk 56 90 94 111 351
A63: Greystones 40 48 141 104 333
D18: Dublin 18 106 52 79 89 326
V93: Killarney 43 29 112 141 325
V95: Ennis 57 52 93 109 311
D22: Dublin 22 7 43 16 242 308
R32: Portlaoise 58 55 73 120 306
R95: Kilkenny 88 56 60 95 299
D01: Dublin 1 102 15 64 107 288
D08: Dublin 8 144 21 25 96 286
F92: Letterkenny 48 50 50 117 265
A85: Dunshaughlin 82 58 51 69 260
A82: Kells 56 36 73 72 237
K36: Malahide 47 25 86 67 225
P51: Mallow 35 31 68 88 222
Y35: Wexford 63 31 43 82 219
K67: Swords 96 16 69 34 215
P43: Carrigaline 49 28 65 59 201
D09: Dublin 9 3 67 10 117 197
D6W: Dublin 6W 12 37 20 119 188
K32: Balbriggan 25 52 53 53 183
Y25: Gorey 40 36 54 51 181
Y21: Enniscorthy 30 31 55 63 179
T45: Glanmire 45 28 40 64 177
R93: Carlow 20 29 69 57 175
N91: Mullingar 41 27 41 65 174
V92: Tralee 31 20 47 73 171
F93: Lifford 37 33 45 50 165
R51: Kildare 36 19 56 51 162
D11: Dublin 11 19 32 9 99 159
D06: Dublin 6 18 0 54 86 158
P31: Ballincollig 29 20 57 44 150
D04: Dublin 4 60 22 35 29 146
A96: Glenageary 16 10 11 108 145
F94: Donegal 36 16 39 54 145
P25: Midleton 31 15 40 58 144
F91: Sligo 49 7 47 40 143
A94: Blackrock 21 11 45 62 139
N39: Longford 20 22 35 60 137
D05: Dublin 5 10 1 74 51 136
D14: Dublin 14 55 9 53 16 133
A98: Bray 15 4 28 83 130
N37: Athlone 58 22 25 25 130
H62: Loughrea 18 15 33 60 126
F26: Ballina 26 17 36 44 123
D12: Dublin 12 38 1 24 48 111
R35: Tullamore 36 16 21 34 107
D07: Dublin 7 6 4 38 57 105
P12: Macroom 16 12 46 31 105
D16: Dublin 16 76 1 7 13 97
H53: Ballinasloe 33 15 20 26 94
Y14: Arklow 10 13 22 49 94
P17: Kinsale 11 7 29 46 93
X35: Dungarvan 18 14 32 29 93
F28: Westport 37 15 18 21 91
W12: Newbridge 17 6 33 33 89
F12: Claremorris 18 14 37 16 85
F23: Castlebar 26 9 25 20 80
E41: Thurles 16 16 18 29 79
P24: Cobh 22 14 11 32 79
H18: Monaghan 18 16 21 23 78
P61: Fermoy 59 3 11 5 78
D02: Dublin 2 57 4 4 11 76
E91: Clonmel 21 25 18 9 73
E32: Carrick-on-Suir 16 4 30 21 71
A75: Castleblaney 4 6 25 34 69
R14: Athy 18 20 12 17 67
A81: Carrickmacross 20 11 15 18 64
F42: Roscommon 8 8 16 30 62
A83: Enfield 10 15 23 13 61
H12: Cavan 13 6 18 24 61
P72: Bandon 12 18 14 17 61
R56: Curragh 2 4 5 50 61
Y34: New Ross 12 16 16 16 60
K56: Rush 45 9 2 2 58
H54: Tuam 15 13 9 17 54
H65: Athenry 15 11 9 19 54
D03: Dublin 3 25 7 14 7 53
V35: Kilmallock 9 5 17 22 53
P85: Clonakilty 7 8 13 22 50
F45: Castlerea 5 10 15 18 48
P36: Youghal 9 5 8 26 48
V31: Listowel 7 4 7 28 46
P47: Dunmanway 15 7 20 3 45
W34: Monasterevin 11 14 11 8 44
E34: Tipperary 11 7 9 14 41
E45: Nenagh 9 5 11 15 40
F35: Ballyhaunis 15 5 11 9 40
R42: Birr 8 3 10 19 40
P81: Skibbereen 8 2 17 10 37
T56: Watergrasshill 16 3 8 9 36
K45: Lusk 29 0 2 3 34
R45: Edenderry 0 1 3 30 34
A41: Ballyboughal 26 1 3 2 32
R21: Mhuine Bheag 6 20 3 3 32
P75: Bantry 13 4 4 10 31
X42: Kilmacthomas 10 4 11 6 31
A84: Ashbourne 11 1 2 14 28
V42: Newcastle West 9 4 7 8 28
F56: Ballymote 17 1 6 2 26
P14: Crookstown 9 6 5 6 26
V23: Caherciveen 2 1 13 9 25
N41: Carrick-on-Shannon 3 6 7 8 24
P32: Rylane 3 5 5 9 22
V15: Kilrush 4 10 5 3 22
P67: Mitchelstown 3 3 7 8 21
E53: Roscrea 1 5 8 6 20
F52: Boyle 7 1 8 4 20
F31: Ballinrobe 7 1 2 9 19
H14: Belturbet 5 4 6 3 18
E21: Cahir 3 1 7 6 17
E25: Cashel 6 2 4 4 16
A86: Dunboyne 0 2 3 10 15
P56: Charleville 4 3 4 4 15
A42: Garristown 5 3 4 1 13
D20: Dublin 20 0 1 11 0 12
K34: Skerries 2 3 2 5 12
V14: Shannon 4 4 2 2 12
H16: Cootehill 0 3 0 8 11
H23: Clones 1 1 0 7 9
T34: Carrignavar 3 1 2 3 9
H71: Clifden 2 3 2 1 8
D10: Dublin 10 1 0 0 5 6
D17: Dublin 17 0 1 3 1 5
A45: Oldtown 1 0 1 1 3

4966 3237 5073 7400 20676

hometruths

Geodirectory reports total housing stock of 2,014,357 in Dec 2019 vs 2,042,426 in Dec 20

This is an increase in housing stock of just over 28,000.

If we got 21,000 new builds where are the other 7k coming from?

Graham

Surprised not to see Maynooth on that list.

Timing belt

Graham wrote: »

Surprised not to see Maynooth on that list.

Is Maynooth not under W23: Celbridge

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Geodirectory reports total housing stock of 2,014,357 in Dec 2019 vs 2,042,426 in Dec 20

This is an increase in housing stock of just over 28,000.

If we got 21,000 new builds where are the other 7k coming from?

page 5 of 2020 geodirectory report states:
In the 12 months to December 2020, a total of 21,851 new addresses*
were added to the GeoDirectory database, equating to 1.1% of the total residential stock.

Due with lockdowns we did not went for holidays to Spain and because we work from home we did not buy sandwiches in cafe shop.We got our saving increased to historicaly high level at 2000 euros and we gonna spend them buying new 3 beds property at 2000 euros price at cash sale in Dublin city center from Johny Ronnan.This definetly gonna move property market prices up ! So for that reason we gonna save another 50 euros saying no to Netflix and moving to Disney+

Graham

Timing belt wrote: »

Is Maynooth not under W23: Celbridge

It is indeed.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

page 5 of 2020 geodirectory report states:
In the 12 months to December 2020, a total of 21,851 new addresses*
were added to the GeoDirectory database, equating to 1.1% of the total residential stock.

So the additional 7k increase in housing stock are presumably derelicts brought back to life?

Idbatterim

Lads, put yourself down on the social housing list and this 960,000 euro apartment could be yours. One of 101 luxury homes irelands most industrious will be living it up in!

Living in luxury and they are so wealthy, they can live there and not even have to work a day in their lives, thanks to you ...

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ronan-plans-to-sell-960-000-apartment-to-council-for-social-housing-1.4476385?mode=amp

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Geodirectory reports total housing stock of 2,014,357 in Dec 2019 vs 2,042,426 in Dec 20

This is an increase in housing stock of just over 28,000.

If we got 21,000 new builds where are the other 7k coming from?

Probably due to supply like these 47 apartments in Ballybofey (link below) that will be entering supply in 2021 but won’t be recorded in the new build statistics at the end of this year.

Just took my Tin-foil hat back out of storage so I believe we’re going to see more and more similar examples like this going forward.

As was my opinion a while back, many similar type developments across Ireland had been purchased by funds etc. over the past 7 years and by the time those buyers got through the paperwork, fixed them up and got them back into supply would have taken a few years.

We’re at that “few years” period about now and these will turn into an avalanche of up to now hidden existing supply entering the market very quickly in the very near future IMO

Link to Ballybofey apartments in today’s Irish Independent: https://m.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/donegal-apartment-portfolio-sells-for-around-145m-guide-40049618.html

TheSheriff

Idbatterim wrote: »

Lads, put yourself down on the social housing list and this 960,000 euro apartment could be yours. One of 101 luxury homes irelands most industrious will be living it up in!

Living in luxury and they are so wealthy, they can live there and not even have to work a day in their lives, thanks to you ...

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ronan-plans-to-sell-960-000-apartment-to-council-for-social-housing-1.4476385?mode=amp

Literally just came across this article on twitter.

Lost for words, hopefully DCC would not pay this.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

So the additional 7k increase in housing stock are presumably derelicts brought back to life?

No I don't think so as they are different data sets so need to be careful comparing them... for example geodirectory includes student accommodation the new completion from the CSO does not.

I did a quick comparison from the 21,851 additions taken from page 5 of the geodirectory report against the cso completion data 20,676

CSO Total Geo Total Difference
Meath 1512 1282 230
Wicklow 1046 866 180
Kerry 574 432 142
Donegal 574 466 108
Waterford 479 382 97
Monaghan 222 147 75
Sligo 179 130 49
Limerick 519 478 41
Longford 122 82 40
Cavan 199 180 19
Cork 2459 2442 17
Tipperary 316 328 -12
Galway 1061 1075 -14
Mayo 423 444 -21
Clare 398 420 -22
Westmeath 293 333 -40
Kilkenny 381 423 -42
Leitrim 37 82 -45
Roscommon 171 228 -57
Offaly 197 272 -75
Laois 334 413 -79
Louth 618 705 -87
Wexford 624 744 -120
Carlow 194 333 -139
Kildare 1663 1926 -263
Dublin 6081 7238 -1157

Grand Total 20676 21851 -1175

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

Probably due to supply like these 47 apartments in Ballybofey (link below) that will be entering supply in 2021 but won’t be recorded in the new build statistics at the end of this year.

Just took my Tin-foil hat back out of storage so I believe we’re going to see more and more similar examples like this going forward.

As was my opinion a while back, many similar type developments across Ireland had been purchased by funds etc. over the past 7 years and by the time those buyers got through the paperwork, fixed them up and got them back into supply would have taken a few years.

We’re at that “few years” period about now and these will turn into an avalanche of up to now hidden existing supply entering the market very quickly in the very near future IMO

Link to Ballybofey apartments in today’s Irish Independent: https://m.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/donegal-apartment-portfolio-sells-for-around-145m-guide-40049618.html

Would be surprised if there were 7k of those around the country.

Whatever the reason, an increase of 28,000 in the housing stock seems to be a pretty healthy chunk of additional housing in any circumstances never mind the fact that country was in lockdown for most of 2020.

Seems like those who were nervous we'd run out of houses to buy even quicker because of covid had no need to panic.

Idbatterim

TheSheriff wrote: »

Literally just came across this article on twitter.

Lost for words, hopefully DCC would not pay this.

Oh they will pay it.the housing waiting lost and homeless numbers are all they care about, they would pay anything to stop them increasing. The only thing they care about is how they look. Their failure is a criminal disgrace. Its off the wall laziness. If economic collapse is the price to pay to stop issues being ignored here, making them fave up to reality, it will be worth it...

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Would be surprised if there were 7k of those around the country.

Whatever the reason, an increase of 28,000 in the housing stock seems to be a pretty healthy chunk of additional housing in any circumstances never mind the fact that country was in lockdown for most of 2020.

Seems like those who were nervous we'd run out of houses to buy even quicker because of covid had no need to panic.

The Geodirectory report for 2020 states 21k additions not 28k