2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

cnocbui

HansKroenke wrote: »

I think the better solution is to get rid of golf clubs inside the M50 and use that land for parks and housing / new villages within Dublin.

The furore I caused a year or so ago when I first suggested that. I was told to get lost.

Not to mention the utter incongruity of full blown farm backing onto DCU. Only in Ireland.

PropQueries

hmmm wrote: »

SF's plan to fill the place with council housing estates isn't the answer. We tried that before and it was a disaster, it's not going to be different this time.

What needs to happen is reform of the planning system, remove the influence of NIMBYs and other objectors, and build where people want to live. The demand is there, the supply isn't.

I don't think that argument washes anymore, if it ever did IMO.

The DLR council was very happy to rent all the apartments at Herbert Hill in Dundrum for 100% social housing. It seems that developments comprising 100% social housing are now only acceptable if there's a fund at the end collecting the inflated rents that the local councils (on my behalf and at my cost) have signed up for IMO

HansKroenke

cnocbui wrote: »

The furore I caused a year or so ago when I first suggested that. I was told to get lost.

Not to mention the utter incongruity of full blown farm backing onto DCU. Only in Ireland.

I know it is not realistic unfortunately but when it comes to a discussion about stripping down the public parks for housing, I think it is only fair to highlight the, in my personal view, high number of golf clubs within the M50 when land values are at a premium. My experience is that the members do not realise just how elitist their privilege of being a member in such clubs actually is.

PropQueries

HansKroenke wrote: »

I think the better solution is to get rid of golf clubs inside the M50 and use that land for parks and housing / new villages within Dublin.

Plus the golf members of these clubs proved during the celtic tiger years that they are more than happy to sell their local amenity to a developer once the price is right. Same with the farmers in Co. Dublin e.g. that farmer in North Dublin who sold his land for a new prison during the boom years.

If the land is truly needed, compulsory purchase it at agri/amenity prices and rezone it to housing after purchase.

Sweet.Science

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't think that argument washes anymore, if it ever did IMO.

The DLR council was very happy to rent all the apartments at Herbert Hill in Dundrum for 100% social housing. It seems that developments comprising 100% social housing are now only acceptable if there's a fund at the end collecting the inflated rents that the local councils (on my behalf and at my cost) have signed up for IMO

With outgoings like this every year now for at least 30 years where is all the money going to come from ? Also bricklaying isnt huge in Dublin . There is already Cisk and Hegartys working on social housing (small developments ) over the last 2 years

Firstly . Where to we get all the extra builders from ? Secondly , if it takes over 2 years to get a few hundred apts built how can they be done en masses to make any dent in the housing crisis we are in ?

Brussels Sprout

Cyrus wrote: »

the people in early to mid 20s didnt take the pain though.

Depends on what type of of pain you're referring to. They didn't get caught with Celtic Tiger mortgages like a lot of people in their 40s and they didn't have to emigrate like a lot of people in their 30s had to . Many of them are in a situation though where they're finding it impossible to move out of home due to a combination of extortionate rents and low paid jobs despite, on average, being more educated than previous generations. With Covid they can't even emigrate so they're stuck.

Timing belt

Bruno Millions Geisha wrote: »

Not really on subject but wanting to ask. Do you/anyone see over short-med term that interest rates rise again?

They will only rise if we see inflation above 3% for a year so. We will see some inflation the next time the CPI is released in Europe but that will mainly be driven by the reversal of the German vat cuts so will add 1% onto what it really is. Oil has also recovered so we may see 0.5% increase in the next year but I can't see it going over 1-1.5% and don't see interest rates rising in the next 2/3 years. IMO

HansKroenke

Bruno Millions Geisha wrote: »

Not really on subject but wanting to ask. Do you/anyone see over short-med term that interest rates rise again?

Whether intended or not by Central Banks, there are signs in the investment publications that inflation is going to make a comeback, meaning low interest rates likely to persist.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-08/u-s-10-year-inflation-breakeven-advances-to-highest-since-2014?sref=ZMFHsM5Z

PropQueries

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Depends on what type of of pain you're referring to. They didn't get caught with Celtic Tiger mortgages like a lot of people in their 40s and they didn't have to emigrate like a lot of people in their 30s had to . Many of them are in a situation though where they're finding it impossible to move out of home due to a combination of extortionate rents and low paid jobs despite, on average, being more educated than previous generations. With Covid they can't even emigrate so they're stuck.

Any pain my generation went through was 100% caused by my generation. So don't feel sorry for us IMO The generation before me went through a lot of hardship. My generation took everything offered to us and blew it. It's not the people in their teens, 20s, 30s or 40s fault so they should start demanding reductions in our pensions and all other benefits we receive but never paid or paid very little into the system for.


While it may sound weird me advocating for this. I believe the longer this nonsense persists, the more that's going to be taken from my generation through pension cuts, loss of services etc. I'd rather go through that now than in my 80s when I've no fight left in me IMO

cnocbui

schmittel wrote: »

Not as accountable as they used to be! (by their superiors)

Accountability is not a concept even remotely touched on in the Irish psyche, in fact, the reverse is an ongoing theme in Ireish culture. Wrongdoing by chieftans is to be rendered invisible, like water flowing around a rock in the stream; what rock? Libel laws are the final back-stop should anyone be so out of step and uncouth as to mention there being a rock.

Gee, this childrens hospital thing is a mess, lets hold an inquiry, the first written guidline and guiding princple of which shall be that no blameworthy individuals will be identified or mentioned and no blame is to be assigned.

In other countries I could mention, enquiries usually have the opposite aims and intent.

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

Any pain my generation went through was 100% caused by my generation. So don't feel sorry for us IMO The generation before me went through a lot of hardship. My generation took everything offered to us and blew it. It's not the people in their teens, 20s, 30s or 40s fault so they should start demanding reductions in our pensions and all other benefits we receive but never paid or paid very little into the system for.


While it may sound weird me advocating for this. I believe the longer this nonsense persists, the more that's going to be taken from my generation through pension cuts, loss of services etc. I'd rather go through that now than in my 80s when I've no fight left in me IMO

The 8.21 billion we spend each year on pensions, is that just the state pension or? i'm assuming its nothing to with private pensions so things like public sector teachers etc?

Geuze

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The 8.21 billion we spend each year on pensions, is that just the state pension or? i'm assuming its nothing to with private pensions so things like public sector teachers etc?

That is State Pensions, and excludes PS pensions.

Geuze

cnocbui wrote: »

Not to mention the utter incongruity of full blown farm backing onto DCU. Only in Ireland.

There are one-storey houses within maybe 600m of O'Connell street.

Crazy.

MacronvFrugals

Geuze wrote: »

That is State Pensions, and excludes PS pensions.

Thanks Geuze

That's extraordinary i always thought public sector must be included in that figure.

This figure is just all the over 66s getting 248 euro a week is it?

Timing belt

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Thanks Geuze

That's extraordinary i always thought public sector must be included in that figure.

This figure is just all the over 66s getting 248 euro a week is it?

635k x 248 x52 = 8.2bn

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The 8.21 billion we spend each year on pensions, is that just the state pension or? i'm assuming its nothing to with private pensions so things like public sector teachers etc?

As far as I know, it does indeed include the public sector pensions from an article I read a while ago. So, about half of this annual pension bill goes to the civil servant/public sector pensioners. Open to correction on this one though. If it doesn't, then the annual unfunded pension bill is far more scarier than I thought.

I'll try find the right article, but this below article states that the cost of public sector pensions in 2018 was €3.6 billion in 2018. So near enough half the total spend.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/cost-of-public-sector-pensions-surges-to-150-billion-1.4437809

Geuze

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Thanks Geuze

That's extraordinary i always thought public sector must be included in that figure.

This figure is just all the over 66s getting 248 euro a week is it?

Your chart is DSP expenditure.

PS pensions are not paid out by the DSP.

For example, a typical teacher's pension of 700 pw is paid by the DES, not the DSP.

It is included in the DES pay and pensions bill.

Geuze

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

This figure is just all the over 66s getting 248 euro a week is it?

All people over 66 do not get a State Pension.

I know plenty who don't.


The 8bn is broken down as follows:


https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/02f594-annual-sws-statistical-information-report/

https://assets.gov.ie/86167/66194a05-82f8-480f-8be0-4350e1218a62.pdf

2019 data

SP contributory = 5.6 bn
Widows/widowers = 1.6
Non-con = 1bn

MacronvFrugals

I'm sorry but BAM should be restricted from future state projects, this is becoming a farce

Children's Hospital won't be ready until May 2024

Speaking at this afternoon’s PAC hearing, chair of the National Paediatric Health Development Board (NPHDB) David Gunning spoke in stark terms of the difficulties that the board has experienced, in its view, while dealing with the principal contractor on the €1.7bn budgeted project BAM.

Mr Gunning said that the “lack of advancement” in the project is attributable due to “under-resourcing on the project by the main contractor”.

He said that at the end of 2019, the project had progressed 8.5% through its construction plan when it should have progressed 22%.

More than €300m in additional claims have been received from the contractor, he said, with the board deafening each of those “robustly”.

Geuze

PropQueries wrote: »

As far as I know, it does indeed include the public sector pensions from an article I read a while ago. So, about half of this annual pension bill goes to the civil servant/public sector pensioners. Open to correction on this one though. If it doesn't, then the annual unfunded pension bill is far more scarier than I thought.

I'll try find the right article, but this below article states that the cost of public sector pensions in 2018 was €3.6 billion in 2018. So near enough half the total spend.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/cost-of-public-sector-pensions-surges-to-150-billion-1.4437809

The above is false.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

635k x 248 x52 = 8.2bn

So, the real annual state pensions bill is c. €10 billion per year?

PropQueries

Geuze wrote: »

The above is false.

Then, that makes the annual figures significantly worse?

Geuze

Geuze wrote: »

The 8bn is broken down as follows:

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/02f594-annual-sws-statistical-information-report/

https://assets.gov.ie/86167/66194a05-82f8-480f-8be0-4350e1218a62.pdf

2019 data

SP contributory = 5.6 bn
Widows/widowers = 1.6
Non-con = 1bn

2019 SA pensions, non-con = 94,854 recipients
2019 SI pensions = 554,485 recipients

Geuze

PropQueries wrote: »

So, the real annual state pensions bill is c. €10 billion per year?

Give me a few mins.


Here we are, 2018 PS pensions:

https://igees.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/9.-Public-Service-Occupational-Pensions-in-Ireland-Cashflow-Analysis.pdf


2017 = 3.4bn PS pensions

2020 est = just over 4bn



I think it's reasonable to say 2020 combined State and PS pension is over 10 bn, and towards 12 bn.

PropQueries

Geuze wrote: »

Give me a few mins.

According to the Irish Times back in December 2020:

"An analysis undertaken for the Government said the annual gross cost of public sector pensions would rise from €3.4 billion in 2017 to €5.3 billion in 2025. The rise reflects the ageing of the public service – in line with the general population – the fact people are living longer and the pension rules which apply to those taken on before 2013."

So, by 2025, if the state and public sector pensions are added together, we're probably talking about an annual spend of c. €13 - €15 billion per year by 2025.

I still think the current c.€8 billion includes the public sector pensions as otherwise it's more unsustainable than it is already.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/q-a-what-is-the-story-with-the-cost-of-public-sector-pensions-1.4438799

Geuze

I can 100% tell you that DSP exp on State pensions is 8bn, and that does not include PS pensions.

The DSP 8bn is all explained in the DSP Annual Stats.

(NB: it is part of my job to read these things)



So total public exp is = DSP exp on State Pensions PLUS each department exp on retired PS from that dept.

So total public exp on pensions = DSP 8.1bn + exp on PS pensions








A current working or retired PS, hired before April 1995, did not pay full-rate PRSI, and so do not receive State pensions.

Geuze

PropQueries wrote: »

So, by 2025, if the state and public sector pensions are added together, we're probably talking about an annual spend of c. €13 - €15 billion per year by 2025.

Yes, correct.

To give you an idea of the scale we are talking about, with no annual increase in the SP contributory, expenditure rises by 200m anyways, due to numbers and ageing.

Bear in mind that FF and SF want to add 5 per week / 260 pa, on top of that, every year.

(550,000)(260pa) = 143m for the rate increase

PropQueries

Geuze wrote: »

Yes, correct.

To give you an idea of the scale we are talking about, with no annual increase in the SP contributory, expenditure rises by 200m anyways, due to numbers and ageing.

Bear in mind that FF and SF want to add 5 per week / 260 pa, on top of that, every year.

(550,000)(260pa) = 143m for the rate increase

At least we now know where all that additional revenue from the carbon taxes is going to go. Looks like we also now know the true reason why FF/FG brought the Greens into the coalition. Nice smokescreen IMO

L1011

Topic. Can everyone remember that concept please.

Timing belt

<MOD SNIP>

DataDude

<MOD SNIP>

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

If the land is truly needed, compulsory purchase it at agri/amenity prices and rezone it to housing after purchase.

No, you are definitely not a capitalist, let alone more then me, as you claimed. I'd say you are a deep red socialist.

Have you thought of organising a search party for that moral compass you seem to be missing?

Villa05

MacronvFrugals wrote:

Honest question, what would have happened if the FG/Lab government didn't invite REITs/Investors to Ireland?

No one has an issue with inviting them in. The issue is imbalance in how they are treated v local investors

The problem is Govt policy, taxation policy,

Bruno Millions Geisha wrote:

Not really on subject but wanting to ask. Do you/anyone see over short-med term that interest rates rise again?

Timing belt wrote:

635k x 248 x52 = 8.2bn

Xmass bonus
53

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I'm sorry but BAM should be restricted from future state projects, this is becoming a farce

Children's Hospital won't be ready until May 2024

I would also question how the project is being managed the public servants. At the start didn’t they get the contractor to begin work while plans were still being finalised? This resulted in change requests etc?

Villa05

The state is propping up prices/rents and the state is in debt up to its eyeballs and continuing to drive unsustainable spending

I don't think anyone disputes these facts

Then state spending is not only fair game but the only game in town for discussion on this thread

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

that would be a turn up for the books, could potentially work for tax staff but a lot of the rest spend more time at client premises than their own office, id expect that to persist.

also a few friends are partners and they have been in more than out, they want their people back in, but who knows.

The below is from Mark Kennedy in Mazars - not quite the big 4, but close enough. Along with PWC today announcing WFH persisting fulltime until September, it certainly doesn't seem like the Audit firms are resisting the "new normal" as much as many people thought.

“I suspect we will not return to full in the office working in the way we were before,” he said. “That said, we do need offices. What you can’t do remotely is get the kind of collaborations that you need with teams. It’s harder to train people etc.

“I think what we’ll probably do is convert our space and use it in a different way going forward. We have offices in Limerick, Galway and Dublin, and we are reflecting at the moment on how much space we need in each, because we have seen our workforce spread around the country.

“I don’t think we’ll see everyone return on masse. I suspect a rhythm will form where people are in the office sometimes and we use the office space in a slightly different way going forward.”

Link - https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/state-must-not-withdraw-business-supports-abruptly-1.4480354

PropQueries

One of the states first affordable housing schemes are to be built in Lusk, Co. Dublin.

According to the Irish Times:

“Prices will start from €166,000 for two-bedroom apartments; from €206,000 for three-bedroom duplexes; from €250,000 for three-bedroom terraced houses; and from €258,000 for three-bedroom semi-detached houses.”

You must be a FTB and resident in Finglas for at least 12 months.

To put the above prices in perspective and compare to DCC’s idea of affordable housing at O’Devaney Gardens:

“The council report said that the “affordable” homes would be sold with a 30-40% discount.

The council also laid out the cost for the affordable units; €240,000 to €250,000 for a one-bedroom apartment and from €300,000 to €320,000 for a two-bedroom apartment.

And for housing at O’Devaney- €260,000 to €300,000 for a two-bedroom house and €300,000 to €320,000 for a three-bedroom house.“

Link to article on Lusk in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/affordable-housing-one-of-state-s-first-schemes-to-be-built-in-lusk-1.4480279

Big difference in Lusk and O'Devanney gardens.

O'D is good value at those prices.
The prices in Lusk sound about the same as prices are out there anyway.

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

The below is from Mark Kennedy in Mazars - not quite the big 4, but close enough. Along with PWC today announcing WFH persisting fulltime until September, it certainly doesn't seem like the Audit firms are resisting the "new normal" as much as many people thought.

Not quite the big 4 is an understatement:D

But let’s see

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

The below is from Mark Kennedy in Mazars - not quite the big 4, but close enough. Along with PWC today announcing WFH persisting fulltime until September, it certainly doesn't seem like the Audit firms are resisting the "new normal" as much as many people thought.

I think some people who reckon office work will go back to normal will be a bit blindsided when they realise just how much employers are going to embrace WFH.

cnocbui

bubblypop wrote: »

Big difference in Lusk and O'Devanney gardens.

O'D is good value at those prices.
The prices in Lusk sound about the same as prices are out there anyway.

Do they come with a 20 year ban on on-selling?

jill_valentine

schmittel wrote: »

I think some people who reckon office work will go back to normal will be a bit blindsided when they realise just how much employers are going to embrace WFH.

I've posted before here about my involvement in the quite-big-old-company-I-work-for's rollout into WFH - today we were officially told not to expect our current in-office staffing levels to change until March next year (ie a rotating skeleton crew for stuff involving physical documents, equipment etc).

In reality though, we've already physically changed the office and hardware models we have, and the company clearly expects this to be how it is for good. Staff are starting to make decisions about where they live from now on around it.

Not an immediate sea change or anything, and of no benefit to me personally, but from my company's POV the commuter belt has expanded by at least a county or so on all sides.

Edit - was talking to a chap last week who now lives in Belfast, for a job in Dublin, which was new to me.

decreds

Timing belt wrote: »

I agree but they can't change it without crashing everything.

Agreed, but one has to wonder how long they can kick the can down the road? It's all well and good for property owners to smugly feel hubris due to the rise in house prices but these same people need to think long term, if they want to upgrade that new property is going to cost them more and how will their children fair when they try leave the nest?


I have a feeling we may see adults staying at home until at least 30 become the norm in future generations by the way things are going, only a massive correction can stop this.

decreds

schmittel wrote: »

I think some people who reckon office work will go back to normal will be a bit blindsided when they realise just how much employers are going to embrace WFH.

Hundred percent agree. I assume the people that disagree don't work in tech. The cat is out of the bag that permanent WFH will be on the table once all this ends. My company who don't have a huge presence this side of the water have hired roughly 80 people in Europe within the past year (WFH is all in their contracts).



The vast majority of jobs that can be done remotely will continue to be WFH when the virus subsides. This will likely have an impact on the Dublin housing market and many capital cities/tech hubs around the world.

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

Do they come with a 20 year ban on on-selling?

Don't know! Presume there is some restrictions on selling on.

Timing belt

decreds wrote: »

Agreed, but one has to wonder how long they can kick the can down the road? It's all well and good for property owners to smugly feel hubris due to the rise in house prices but these same people need to think long term, if they want to upgrade that new property is going to cost them more and how will their children fair when they try leave the nest?


I have a feeling we may see adults staying at home until at least 30 become the norm in future generations by the way things are going, only a massive correction can stop this.

It's all relative as even if they stopped kicking the can down the road and housing, stock market and all other asset classes re-priced so would salary and wages as you would have mass unemployment and as people went go to back to work it would be for lower salaries IMO

It is like looking at a cheap house in another country.... it is only cheap if you have foreign purchasing power but if you are a local in that country it would not be cheap... As I say it's all relative.

And believe it or not there are less young adults living at home compared to 15 years ago. It's hard to believe with media reports but it is true.

Mic 1972

decreds wrote: »

Hundred percent agree. I assume the people that disagree don't work in tech. The cat is out of the bag that permanent WFH will be on the table once all this ends. My company who don't have a huge presence this side of the water have hired roughly 80 people in Europe within the past year (WFH is all in their contracts).



The vast majority of jobs that can be done remotely will continue to be WFH when the virus subsides. This will likely have an impact on the Dublin housing market and many capital cities/tech hubs around the world.

i'm working for a major big tech company, we all work from home now.
However they are still advertising internal roles that are office based and that will require giving up WFH. All these roles are currently done from home, so there is no apparent reason why they sholdnt be done from home in the fututre

HansKroenke

decreds wrote: »

Hundred percent agree. I assume the people that disagree don't work in tech. The cat is out of the bag that permanent WFH will be on the table once all this ends. My company who don't have a huge presence this side of the water have hired roughly 80 people in Europe within the past year (WFH is all in their contracts).



The vast majority of jobs that can be done remotely will continue to be WFH when the virus subsides. This will likely have an impact on the Dublin housing market and many capital cities/tech hubs around the world.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/leo-varadkar-i-want-to-make-sure-this-pandemic-is-a-lost-year-or-so-not-a-lost-decade-1.4480399?mode=amp

Varadker's interview in the IT today regarding the likelihood of restrictions into next year should also throw cold water on any claims that returning to offices in meaningful numbers will be part of the return to life after covid, particularly as he references the winter surge and seasonality of covid. To me that indicates no chances will be taken next winter and people will be told to stay off public transport and out of offices during the winter period.

It will take nearly two years in total to get fully back to normal (ie no more restrictions), it looks like. While it has been a year WFH, I don't think this experience is an indicator of what it will be like after covid. For example, people weren't ready to WFH, needed to get screens, chairs, desks etc. Also, there is little to no recreation outside of the home so people can feel that all they do is work. That is not a normal WFH experience. Finally, people may have paid more for their home in buying or renting to be close to the office but of course, given the option, they will look to move somewhere they would prefer to live as proximity to the office won't be anywhere near as big a factor.

In short, with 2 years pandemic-induced WFH, the very most of a change we will see post-covid will be a hybrid model of WFH/part time in the office. There are huge ramifications for this in property, particularly Dublin City office rentals and the €2k per month one bedroom rentals. Somehow I think that Dublin City centre will be reborn in terms of retail, cafes and pubs, as public transport and cycling/scooter infrastructure is enhanced making it easier and more pleasant to get in and out.

cnocbui

Timing belt wrote: »

It's all relative as even if they stopped kicking the can down the road and housing, stock market and all other asset classes re-priced so would salary and wages as you would have mass unemployment and as people went go to back to work it would be for lower salaries IMO

It is like looking at a cheap house in another country.... it is only cheap if you have foreign purchasing power but if you are a local in that country it would not be cheap... As I say it's all relative.

And believe it or not there are less young adults living at home compared to 15 years ago. It's hard to believe with media reports but it is true.

The figure was higher than 70% 15 years ago?

https://extra.ie/2020/02/07/news/irish-news/i-wouldnt-be-able-to-afford-any-kind-of-rent-over-70-of-irish-young-adults-living-with-their-parents

Timing belt

cnocbui wrote: »

The figure was higher than 70% 15 years ago?

https://extra.ie/2020/02/07/news/irish-news/i-wouldnt-be-able-to-afford-any-kind-of-rent-over-70-of-irish-young-adults-living-with-their-parents