2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I think some people who reckon office work will go back to normal will be a bit blindsided when they realise just how much employers are going to embrace WFH.

I don’t think anyone is saying it’ll go back to the way it was but to think there will be wholesale wfh 5 days a week is incredibly naive aswell, there will have to be some sort of blend and the blend will be more weighted towards the office.

I’m sure there are certain interact with no one jobs that can be done entirely remotely but thankfully we don’t all work like that .

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

I don’t think anyone is saying it’ll go back to the way it was but to think there will be wholesale wfh 5 days a week is incredibly naive aswell, there will have to be some sort of blend and the blend will be more weighted towards the office.

I’m sure there are certain interact with no one jobs that can be done entirely remotely but thankfully we don’t all work like that .

Nobody is saying there will be wholesale WFH 5 days a week.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Nobody is saying there will be wholesale WFH 5 days a week.

Well what are you saying ?

What does embrace wfh mean ?

TheSheriff

The WFH effect and its impact on property has come up again - we are none the wiser since it did a few weeks back.

To assess the impact of WFH we should look at industries which have this already; I have mentioned Pharma before, we had 2+ days WFH per week pre-Covid in my particular company. This gives people more scope in the area they can live yes, but geographically, they will still be tied to a region. I suspect if Tech embrace's this model (which is all but certain), you will see an exodus from the city centre and a movement outwards. I would expect previously desirable areas (thinking areas like malahide, wicklow etc.) to become more popular as the work-home balance will be more important.

If I had a house in a desirable south Dublin location I wouldn't be too worried.

If I had a high end apartment in the city centre which was previously bringing in 2k+ per month I would be very worried.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Well what are you saying ?

What does embrace wfh mean ?

A lot of comment on WFH is "It's a flash in the pan, my coworkers and I are gagging to get back to the office, it wont have any meaningful effect on anything" etc etc.

This is looking at it from an employees point of view, I think uptake of WFH will be driven from an employers point of view, and by embrace I mean they will try and restructure working practices to take as much advantage of the WFH situation as possible.

Obviously how each company does this depends on industry/function etc but I think it will boil down to them using it as a way to cut significant property and human resources costs.

I suspect younger workers will be encouraged into the office, and probably these are the workers who most want to be in there anyway. I suspect middle management will be culled/put out to grass.

Or to quote the Mazars guy:

I don’t think we’ll see everyone return on masse. I suspect a rhythm will form where people are in the office sometimes and we use the office space in a slightly different way going forward.

Using the office in a slightly different way going forward will mean mean cutting down on its use simply to keep an eye of everybody and making sure they're putting the hours in, far better to have smaller offices for meetings/training/clients etc and make sure to hire employees that we don't need to keep an eye on.

If you're in a job whose primary function is to keep an eye on your coworkers I'd say the impact of WFH on Dublin property prices is the least of your worries!

DataDude

TheSheriff wrote: »

The WFH effect and its impact on property has come up again - we are none the wiser since it did a few weeks back.

To assess the impact of WFH we should look at industries which have this already; I have mentioned Pharma before, we had 2+ days WFH per week pre-Covid in my particular company. This gives people more scope in the area they can live yes, but geographically, they will still be tied to a region. I suspect if Tech embrace's this model (which is all but certain), you will see an exodus from the city centre and a movement outwards. I would expect previously desirable areas (thinking areas like malahide, wicklow etc.) to become more popular as the work-home balance will be more important.

If I had a house in a desirable south Dublin location I wouldn't be too worried.

If I had a high end apartment in the city centre which was previously bringing in 2k+ per month I would be very worried.

Would be in agreement with this generally. But I do think the ‘desirable’ bit could be really tested (as has been posted by others before). Pseudo ‘nice’ places in South Dublin like Dundrum, Stillorgan, Goatstown etc. could be badly hit. Even within the nice places, there could become bigger distinctions. I.e. ‘Blackrock’ but nearer the N11 than Village which is, when you look past the fancy address, a 40 min walk from anywhere you’d want to spend your day.

I think there will always be a premium to be paid for the truly nice places like Dalkey/Sandycove/Monkstown etc. And indeed I keep them in my filters. But once WfH becomes more widespread, I don’t know why anyone would pay the SCD premium to live in a Dundrum anymore vs an actually nice seaside town on the commuter belt. Just a personal opinion!

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

A lot of comment on WFH is "It's a flash in the pan, my coworkers and I are gagging to get back to the office, it wont have any meaningful effect on anything" etc etc.

This is looking at it from an employees point of view, I think uptake of WFH will be driven from an employers point of view, and by embrace I mean they will try and restructure working practices to take as much advantage of the WFH situation as possible.

Obviously how each company does this depends on industry/function etc but I think it will boil down to them using it as a way to cut significant property and human resources costs.

I suspect younger workers will be encouraged into the office, and probably these are the workers who most want to be in there anyway. I suspect middle management will be culled/put out to grass.

Or to quote the Mazars guy:



Using the office in a slightly different way going forward will mean mean cutting down on its use simply to keep an eye of everybody and making sure they're putting the hours in, far better to have smaller offices for meetings/training/clients etc and make sure to hire employees that we don't need to keep an eye on.

If you're in a job whose primary function is to keep an eye on your coworkers I'd say the impact of WFH on Dublin property prices is the least of your worries!

I thought the days of keeping and eye on your coworkers in an office went out the window 20 years ago when they got rid of the lower level management roles and introduced performance reviews where the work speaks for its self.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Would be in agreement with this generally. But I do think the ‘desirable’ bit could be really tested (as has been posted by others before). Pseudo ‘nice’ places in South Dublin like Dundrum, Stillorgan, Goatstown etc. could be badly hit. Even within the nice places, there could become bigger distinctions. I.e. ‘Blackrock’ but nearer the N11 than Village which is, when you look past the fancy address, is a 40 min walk from anywhere you’d want to spend your day.

I think there will always be a premium to be paid for the truly nice places like Dalkey/Sandycove/Monkstown etc. And indeed I keep them in my filters. But once WfH becomes more widespread, I don’t know why anyone would pay the SCD premium to live in a Dundrum anymore vs an actually nice seaside town on the commuter belt. Just a personal opinion!

I think you've hit the nail on the head here.

Whilst I suspect city centre apartment rents will fall, they'll still be in demand from young workers and corporate lets. D4 and 6 etc will be fine as will premium sea front.

Long established leafy streets with period houses will hold up well. It's the cookie cutter semi d's that will suffer.

TheSheriff

schmittel wrote: »

A lot of comment on WFH is "It's a flash in the pan, my coworkers and I are gagging to get back to the office, it wont have any meaningful effect on anything" etc etc.

And indeed alot of the counter arguments are, "The cat is out of the bag with regards WFH; its going to change everything; we can all live in the commuter belt; I am moving to Leitrim etc."

Ok, so I haven't seen that last one yet. The point being it will likely release a pressure valve in Dublin, but I wouldn't underestimate the desire of professionals to want to live around other similar professionals.

I don't see a mass exodus of tech workers; similarly as I didn't see a mass exodus of pharma workers when WFH became relatively norm a number of years ago.

WFH will be a god send for those who simply cannot afford to live in Dublin, and great for them.

I think Goatstown will be just fine, and I have absolutely zero vested interested in somewhere like Goatstown!

TheSheriff

schmittel wrote: »

I think you've hit the nail on the head here.

Whilst I suspect city centre apartment rents will fall, they'll still be in demand from young workers and corporate lets. D4 and 6 etc will be fine as will premium sea front.

Long established leafy streets with period houses will hold up well. It's the cookie cutter semi d's that will suffer.

I don't see the logic here; surely within the same local region e.g. South Dublin, the market price of each property will be set by the high end properties in that area.

So, if a period house is for example 1 million and someone pays this in a post-covid world, the price of the semi-D on the street behind this period house will also be influenced by this price.

Are you suggesting people will only buy high end properties in South Dublin and all other demand will fall away?

This is highly unlikely.

Timing belt

TheSheriff wrote: »

And indeed alot of the counter arguments are, "The cat is out of the bag with regards WFH; its going to change everything; we can all live in the commuter belt; I am moving to Leitrim etc."

Ok, so I haven't seen that last one yet. The point being it will likely release a pressure valve in Dublin, but I wouldn't underestimate the desire of professionals to want to live around other similar professionals.

I don't see a mass exodus of tech workers; similarly as I didn't see a mass exodus of pharma workers when WFH became relatively norm a number of years ago.

WFH will be a god send for those who simply cannot afford to live in Dublin, and great for them.

I think Goatstown will be just fine, and I have absolutely zero vested interested in somewhere like Goatstown!

It is the rental market that will suffer the most and as the rental market has been driving houses prices it will release pressure in Dublin like you say and generate pressure outside Dublin in other cities and large towns which will generate it's own issues as it will push the price up beyond the reach of locals.

I don't believe it will be a mass exodus from Dublin but even if 10% of renters took advantage of WFH it would create prices rises through out the country... I don't think this will be the last we hear about it for this reason.

hometruths

TheSheriff wrote: »

And indeed alot of the counter arguments are, "The cat is out of the bag with regards WFH; its going to change everything; we can all live in the commuter belt; I am moving to Leitrim etc."

Ok, so I haven't seen that last one yet. The point being it will likely release a pressure valve in Dublin, but I wouldn't underestimate the desire of professionals to want to live around other similar professionals.

I don't see a mass exodus of tech workers; similarly as I didn't see a mass exodus of pharma workers when WFH became relatively norm a number of years ago.

WFH will be a god send for those who simply cannot afford to live in Dublin, and great for them.

I think Goatstown will be just fine, and I have absolutely zero vested interested in somewhere like Goatstown!

We're in agreement - it will release pressure. But it is fairly significant pressure and release is much needed.

I posted link to a survey yesterday that suggested it might be over 10% of FTBers who would look to buy outside Dublin. It is not a mass exodus, but if that pans out, it is huge.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

We're in agreement - it will release pressure. But it is fairly significant pressure and release is much needed.

I posted link to a survey yesterday that suggested it might be over 10% of FTBers who would look to buy outside Dublin. It is not a mass exodus, but if that pans out, it is huge.

What are you comparing it against? 1 in 10 workers look to buy outside of Dublin. How does this compare to pre-covid?

DataDude

TheSheriff wrote: »

I don't see the logic here; surely within the same local region e.g. South Dublin, the market price of each property will be set by the high end properties in that area.

So, if a period house is for example 1 million and someone pays this in a post-covid world, the price of the semi-D on the street behind this period house will also be influenced by this price.

Are you suggesting people will only buy high end properties in South Dublin and all other demand will fall away?

This is highly unlikely.

My take is that there are a spectrum of prices for all properties in a given area that you could probably express as a function of several variables: ease of commute, proximity to other nice areas, schools etc.

I think places like Dalkey, people pay a premium primarily because it is just a lovely place to spend time (my opinion). Sure it’s a reasonable commute but so is Glenageary. Thats a bonus. I believe the prime variable in the Dalkey premium equation is how nice it is. That’s unlikely to change

For Dundrum, although cheaper than Dalkey, it still is much more expensive than your average location. I suspect most people who buy in Dundrum, wanted to live in a Dalkey type location but has to compromise due to price and landed in Dundrum over other places because it still has a reasonable handy commute. I think ‘the commute’ is a likely to be, on average, a bigger factor in the premium Dundrum attracts than the area itself. So for those people compromising on location, if commute is less of an important factor for them personally, I see the number of alternative locations those people look at to compete with the likes of Dundrum being larger, and therefore demand could possibly fall.

My point doesn’t overly matter whether 2 bed or 5 bed. I just think the already existing variations in prices within the South Dublin area could become exaggerated as the second tier of areas struggle to compete with a much bigger radius of towns due to the lower influence of their current trump card (the Luas, or dublin bus etc).

Edit - following on from above I do absolutely see price pressure in outside the current hotspots. I think there’s early evidence of that in rental markets. I’m sure locals will be delighted in the short term when they see their net worth exploding. But do think it’ll cause problems when the locals kids can’t compete with the two accountants heading down from Dublin.

I know Facebook had talked about indexing salary based on what country the employee based themselves in. Is it ridiculous to suggest there might need to be a more local approach and index salary based on what county you’re in?!

awec

DataDude wrote: »

My take is that there are a spectrum of prices for all properties in a given area that you could probably express as a function of several variables: ease of commute, proximity to other nice areas, schools etc.

I think places like Dalkey, people pay a premium primarily because it is just a lovely place to spend time (my opinion). Sure it’s a reasonable commute but so is Glenageary. Thats a bonus. I believe the prime variable in the Dalkey premium equation is how nice it is. That’s unlikely to change

For Dundrum, although cheaper than Dalkey, it still is much more expensive than your average location. I suspect most people who buy in Dundrum, wanted to live in a Dalkey type location but has to compromise due to price and landed in Dundrum over other places because it still has a reasonable handy commute. I think ‘the commute’ is a likely to be, on average, a bigger factor in the premium Dundrum attracts than the area itself. So for those people compromising on location, if commute is less of an important factor for them personally, I see the number of alternative locations those people look at to compete with the likes of Dundrum being larger, and therefore demand could possibly fall.

My point doesn’t overly matter whether 2 bed or 5 bed. I just think the already existing variations in prices within the South Dublin area could become exaggerated as the second tier of areas struggle to compete with a much bigger radius of towns due to the lower influence of their current trump card (the Luas, or dublin bus etc).

I think you're really underselling Dundrum here.

The Green Luas line from Stephens Green as far out as Dundrum / Balally is really sought after, and it's not just because of the handy commute. Houses along that corridor will hold their value really well as they will always be in very high demand. Further out than that it changes a bit.

hometruths

TheSheriff wrote: »

I don't see the logic here; surely within the same local region e.g. South Dublin, the market price of each property will be set by the high end properties in that area.

So, if a period house is for example 1 million and someone pays this in a post-covid world, the price of the semi-D on the street behind this period house will also be influenced by this price.

Are you suggesting people will only buy high end properties in South Dublin and all other demand will fall away?

This is highly unlikely.

Of course not. But the relative fall in the demand for the cookie cutter semi d in a housing estate backing onto the N11 will be greater than that of the period house on the well established street.

They're not making any more of the period houses. The cookie cutters are popping up everywhere, and apparently we need at least 30k a year more of them.

DataDude

awec wrote: »

I think you're really underselling Dundrum here.

The Green Luas line from Stephens Green as far out as Dundrum / Balally is really sought after, and it's not just because of the handy commute. Houses along that corridor will hold their value really well as they will always be in very high demand. Further out than that it changes a bit.

Apologies if I’ve been unfair to Dundrum. I just picked an example, based on personal opinion, of a reasonably expensive area that I would have no desire to live in. Maybe I’m subconsciously turned against it due to all the times I’ve battled through to the traffic to spend 20 mins finding a spot in the underground.

I guess we’re all biased by our own friends and experiences. But as someone who lives in Blackrock, I have had others (and myself) organised dinner/drinks countless times in Dalkey/Monkstown. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of anyone going to Dundrum for any reason other than to go shopping or to the cinema.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

What are you comparing it against? 1 in 10 workers look to buy outside of Dublin. How does this compare to pre-covid?

No idea how it compares to pre covid. I read the survey that it meant 1 in 10 people would like to leave now they have the option. i.e as a direct result of WFH.

Whatever the exact number is, common sense will tell you that due to WFH a higher number of people will leave the city than otherwise would have done so.

Hoffmans

Anyone interested in a 50k wall in Waterford.
.
Check out this "property"on Daft

https://www.daft.ie/13736614

jill_valentine

Speaking from a personal perspective I think represents a decent number of people - if I could WFH 2-3 days a week, I could buy somewhere this instant. I wouldn't be looking at Dublin, I could be looking at Louth, Westmeath, Longford, Offaly. And the difference isn't just location or commutability, it's what's available.

As a single professional, I can only hope to afford a single apartment in Dublin, but they're like gold dust, which limits supply (and limits your mortgage options). If I could buy further out, for the far less money I could have a 2-3 bed with a garden. If WFH becomes established, those houses could go up in value a bit, but not enough to shut me back out.

Stark

Haha. To be fair, I've seen much higher asking prices for "sites".

awec

schmittel wrote: »

No idea how it compares to pre covid. I read the survey that it meant 1 in 10 people would like to leave now they have the option. i.e as a direct result of WFH.

Whatever the exact number is, common sense will tell you that due to WFH a higher number of people will leave the city than otherwise would have done so.

Maybe, maybe not. Rather than it pointing to a great change in numbers leaving it could just point to different people leaving.

We know that for years FTBs have had to leave Dublin because they couldn't afford or couldn't find property in the city. If those who want to go (the 1 in 10) actually go, it could reduce the numbers leaving who don't want to go (the 9 in 10) if demand starts to slip.

I guess that's why I asked how does it compare. I would be surprised if the figures were not very similar if the question was asked a few years ago, just with a different reason.

"1 in 10 FTBs are looking to buy outside of Dublin now that they can WFH"
vs
"1 in 10 FTBs are looking to buy outside of Dublin as they cannot find any properties in Dublin"

Again, you could be right and this could present a monumental shift that pushes prices up outside of the city, but I am not sure the survey you linked has much interesting info in it.

awec

DataDude wrote: »

Apologies if I’ve been unfair to Dundrum. I just picked an example, based on personal opinion, of a reasonably expensive area that I would have no desire to live in. Maybe I’m subconsciously turned against it due to all the times I’ve battled through to the traffic to spend 20 mins finding a spot in the underground.

I guess we’re all biased by our own friends and experiences. But as someone who lives in Blackrock, I have had others (and myself) organised dinner/drinks countless times in Dalkey/Monkstown. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of anyone going to Dundrum for any reason other than to go shopping or to the cinema.

I've never met anyone who'd go to Blackrock for a night out either, doesn't mean it's not a nice place to live.

I'm not really defending Dundrum here, I don't live there (though I did rent there for a number of years). Just pointing out that the corridor along the green luas from Stephens Green to Balally is like the holy-grail of "normal" people south-side living. The well off who aren't quite well off enough to buy a big gaff in D4.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Maybe, maybe not. Rather than it pointing to a great change in numbers leaving it could just point to different people leaving.

We know that for years FTBs have had to leave Dublin because they couldn't afford or couldn't find property in the city. If those who want to go (the 1 in 10) actually go, it could reduce the numbers leaving who don't want to go (the 9 in 10) if demand starts to slip.

I guess that's why I asked how does it compare. I would be surprised if the figures were not very similar if the question was asked a few years ago, just with a different reason.

"1 in 10 FTBs are looking to buy outside of Dublin now that they can WFH"

vs

"1 in 10 FTBs are looking to buy outside of Dublin as they cannot find any properties in Dublin"

Of course, that's true. They cannot find any properties in Dublin that they can afford.

But the trend of net internal migration has been away from Dublin over the past decade or more even as increasing numbers of people are working in Dublin. (I have linked to this data in a previous post)

This is obviously driven by affordability. People have been priced out of the city. Perfectly normal.

What is different now is that a number of people who can afford to buy in Dublin, and who hitherto would not have considered further out because of the commute or whatever, will start looking further afield thanks to WFH. Datadude is a perfect example.

If prices remain stable, WFH will lead to increased numbers of people leaving the city. No question about it. For sure you might get same number leaving but just different types of people if prices drop.

And it's not just about affordability. It's not exactly cheap to buy in my neck of the woods, and the current crop of buyers seem to be coming for lifestyle. The biggest turn off for them is the commute. If that's no longer an issue, I imagine more will look at the idea, and more still will look further south.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

I've never met anyone who'd go to Blackrock for a night out either, doesn't mean it's not a nice place to live.

I'm not really defending Dundrum here, I don't live there (though I did rent there for a number of years). Just pointing out that the corridor along the green luas from Stephens Green to Balally is like the holy-grail of "normal" people south-side living. The well off who aren't quite well off enough to buy a big gaff in D4.

If the holy grail is the luas green line is that not sort of proving the point that the biggest attraction these properties is not the area itself, but the ease with which you can get somewhere else?

DataDude

awec wrote: »

I've never met anyone who'd go to Blackrock for a night out either, doesn't mean it's not a nice place to live.

I'm not really defending Dundrum here, I don't live there (though I did rent there for a number of years). Just pointing out that the corridor along the green luas from Stephens Green to Balally is like the holy-grail of "normal" people south-side living. The well off who aren't quite well off enough to buy a big gaff in D4.

Despite renting in Blackrock for a while, mostly been because I fell into it. Wouldn’t pay the premium to buy there personally. Although it’s improved as of late with the one way and quality in the Blackrock market, there’s only so nice a place can be when it has an Eddie Rockets beside a Wetherspoons. But anyway, I know that wasn’t your point!

Having read back I probably should have been clearer. I’m using examples of the “A-“ places in SCD vs the “A+” places. I’m not throwing Dundrum in with Tallaght or something, I’m particularly focusing on the ‘next best (and most expensive) thing’ after the really top spots. I’m not familiar with prices in Tallaght but I suspect they don’t have anywhere near as far to fall.

Every place will have those who want to live there because they grew up/have family there. But the buyers I’m focusing on are the young high earning blow-ins who haven’t a major affinity to any particular area. As someone in that category, I would have initially looked at Sandymount, Dalkey, Ranleagh etc. Struggled to stomach the prices, where to next?

A year ago if we decided to settle a bit on location we would have 100% have ended up in a slightly less nice area in roughly the same vicinity (e.g. Goatstown/Dundrum). Now there’s no chance we’ll do that. We might still push ourselves to buy in Dalkey. But if we do settle and accept we can’t have our dream location, we’ll settle for somewhere further out because we can now. Hence my supposition that the current differentials between those areas might stretch a bit.

How crucial to the very high prices in these “A-“ areas are my demographic and how representative am I (and a few of my friends in very similar boats) of that demographic? Not sure! Wouldn’t be unusual for someone to overestimate the prevalence of something because they experienced it themselves so I am very open to the fact I’m completely wrong!

Timing belt

DataDude wrote: »

Despite renting in Blackrock for a while, mostly been because I fell into it. Wouldn’t pay the premium to buy there personally. Although it’s improved as of late with the one way and quality in the Blackrock market, there’s only so nice a place can be when it has an Eddie Rockets beside a Wetherspoons. But anyway, I know that wasn’t your point!

Having read back I probably should have been clearer. I’m using examples of the “A-“ places in SCD vs the “A+” places. I’m not throwing Dundrum in with Tallaght or something, I’m particularly focusing on the ‘next best (and most expensive) thing’ after the really top spots. I’m not familiar with prices in Tallaght but I suspect they don’t have anywhere near as far to fall.

Every place will have those who want to live there because they grew up/have family there. But the buyers I’m focusing on are the young high earning blow-ins who haven’t a major affinity to any particular area. As someone in that category, I would have initially looked at Sandymount, Dalkey, Ranleagh etc. Struggled to stomach the prices, where to next?

A year ago if we decided to settle a bit on location we would have 100% have ended up in a slightly less nice area in roughly the same vicinity (e.g. Goatstown/Dundrum). Now there’s no chance we’ll do that. We might still push ourselves to buy in Dalkey. But if we do settle and accept we can’t have our dream location, we’ll settle for somewhere further out because we can now. Hence my supposition that the current differentials between those areas might stretch a bit.

How crucial to the very high prices in these “A-“ areas are my demographic and how representative am I (and a few of my friends in very similar boats) of that demographic? Not sure! Wouldn’t be unusual for someone to overestimate the prevalence of something because they experienced it themselves so I am very open to the fact I’m completely wrong!

On daft at the moment about 80% of the properties advertised are 450k or less and this is where you are more likely to see the movements as people who have been renting in Dublin move out to rent/buy elsewhere in the country. I would not be one bit surprised if we see 10% prices rises outside Dublin while house prices in Dublin remain static due to demand and the fact that the people moving were already priced out of buying in Dublin anyway.

On the other end of the scale in DLR where people already maxed out property prices (based on median wage for a median house) they will not be able to afford to buy there so are more likely to look further afield to get more bang for their buck. At the end of the day it will be different for everyone but it only takes a small amount of people to move to cause issues in local housing markets outside of Dublin.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

On daft at the moment about 80% of the properties advertised are 450k or less and this is where you are more likely to see the movements as people who have been renting in Dublin move out to rent/buy elsewhere in the country. I would not be one bit surprised if we see 10% prices rises outside Dublin while house prices in Dublin remain static due to demand and the fact that the people moving were already priced out of buying in Dublin anyway.

On the other end of the scale in DLR where people already maxed out property prices (based on median wage for a median house) they will not be able to afford to buy there so are more likely to look further afield to get more bang for their buck. At the end of the day it will be different for everyone but it only takes a small amount of people to move to cause issues in local housing markets outside of Dublin.

Good point. But I had the thought a while ago that if many of the houses outside Dublin are unoccupied because they were rundown etc. due to their owners not investing in their upkeep due to the belief there would be little demand if they did invest, if suddenly there’s demand, it may incentivise existing owners to refurbish them quickly as there’s now a real market.

These homes can be refurbished and brought to market a lot quicker than a developer applying for planning permission and getting new homes built.

In other words, the supply of homes re-entering the market in areas outside Dublin may happen a lot quicker than people realise which would dampen the impact of potential price rises achievable outside Dublin while prices in Dublin do fall.

Of course, my theory depends upon a significant amount of these type of properties already being there. I think they are.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Good point. But I had the thought a while ago that if many of the houses outside Dublin are unoccupied because they were rundown etc. due to their owners not investing in their upkeep due to the belief there would be little demand if they did invest, if suddenly there’s demand, it may incentivise existing owners to refurbish them quickly as there’s now a real market.

These homes can be refurbished and brought to market a lot quicker than a developer applying for planning permission and getting new homes built.

In other words, the supply of homes re-entering the market in areas outside Dublin may happen a lot quicker than people realise which would dampen the impact of potential price rises achievable outside Dublin while prices in Dublin do fall.

Of course, my theory depends upon a significant amount of these type of properties already being there. I think they are.

If they exist are they in areas where people will want to live? There is a big difference with living outside Dublin in a large town or city and living in rural Ireland where the local pub is only open for one night a week.

Hubertj

DataDude wrote: »

Despite renting in Blackrock for a while, mostly been because I fell into it. Wouldn’t pay the premium to buy there personally. Although it’s improved as of late with the one way and quality in the Blackrock market, there’s only so nice a place can be when it has an Eddie Rockets beside a Wetherspoons. But anyway, I know that wasn’t your point!

Having read back I probably should have been clearer. I’m using examples of the “A-“ places in SCD vs the “A+” places. I’m not throwing Dundrum in with Tallaght or something, I’m particularly focusing on the ‘next best (and most expensive) thing’ after the really top spots. I’m not familiar with prices in Tallaght but I suspect they don’t have anywhere near as far to fall.

Every place will have those who want to live there because they grew up/have family there. But the buyers I’m focusing on are the young high earning blow-ins who haven’t a major affinity to any particular area. As someone in that category, I would have initially looked at Sandymount, Dalkey, Ranleagh etc. Struggled to stomach the prices, where to next?

A year ago if we decided to settle a bit on location we would have 100% have ended up in a slightly less nice area in roughly the same vicinity (e.g. Goatstown/Dundrum). Now there’s no chance we’ll do that. We might still push ourselves to buy in Dalkey. But if we do settle and accept we can’t have our dream location, we’ll settle for somewhere further out because we can now. Hence my supposition that the current differentials between those areas might stretch a bit.

How crucial to the very high prices in these “A-“ areas are my demographic and how representative am I (and a few of my friends in very similar boats) of that demographic? Not sure! Wouldn’t be unusual for someone to overestimate the prevalence of something because they experienced it themselves so I am very open to the fact I’m completely wrong!

Ive never real seen the attraction of Dalkey. The village is fine. Dalkey has the DART but I don’t find it accessible. Friends grew up there so I have spent time in Dalkey over the last 30 years. Some nice big houses and all that but I think it is an overpriced area.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

If they exist are they in areas where people will want to live? There is a big difference with living outside Dublin in a large town or city and living in rural Ireland where the local pub is only open for one night a week.

Just from a quick look on MyHome.ie and comparing e.g. Castlebar to Co. Dublin.

There are 4 times as many homes currently for sale in Castlebar per head of population as there are in Co. Dublin.

It's obviously a back of the envelope calculation and a theory, but the potential supply of homes that are currently available for sale in most big towns around the country is probably already a multiple on a per head of population basis compared to Co. Dublin. Never mind the potential supply that could be hanging around in the background.

The supply may already be there ready to go to soak up any significant increase in demand in that scenario IMO

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

A lot of comment on WFH is "It's a flash in the pan, my coworkers and I are gagging to get back to the office, it wont have any meaningful effect on anything" etc etc.

This is looking at it from an employees point of view, I think uptake of WFH will be driven from an employers point of view, and by embrace I mean they will try and restructure working practices to take as much advantage of the WFH situation as possible.

Obviously how each company does this depends on industry/function etc but I think it will boil down to them using it as a way to cut significant property and human resources costs.

I suspect younger workers will be encouraged into the office, and probably these are the workers who most want to be in there anyway. I suspect middle management will be culled/put out to grass.

Or to quote the Mazars guy:



Using the office in a slightly different way going forward will mean mean cutting down on its use simply to keep an eye of everybody and making sure they're putting the hours in, far better to have smaller offices for meetings/training/clients etc and make sure to hire employees that we don't need to keep an eye on.

If you're in a job whose primary function is to keep an eye on your coworkers I'd say the impact of WFH on Dublin property prices is the least of your worries!

I don’t disagree with most of this but I disagree with how impactful it will be, people that are career focused (int the main ) will still spend more of their time in the office than at home, they will still need to be commutable and will in the main be the higher earners who will dictate the prices for houses in desirable areas commutable to wherever their office is.

And this boards notion of some imbecilic middle manager who just monitors everyone all day and has now been found out is a straw man that disappeared from the work place decades ago I literally have never come across someone like that .

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Just from a quick look on MyHome.ie and comparing e.g. Castlebar to Co. Dublin.

There are 4 times as many homes currently for sale in Castlebar per head of population as there are in Co. Dublin.

It's obviously a back of the envelope calculation and a theory, but the potential supply of homes that are currently available for sale in most big towns around the country is probably already a multiple on a per head of population basis compared to Co. Dublin. Never mind the potential supply that could be hanging around in the background.

The supply may already be there ready to go to soak up any significant increase in demand in that scenario IMO

That would be a long commute for the days when you need to be in the office

Cyrus

Hubertj wrote: »

Ive never real seen the attraction of Dalkey. The village is fine. Dalkey has the DART but I don’t find it accessible. Friends grew up there so I have spent time in Dalkey over the last 30 years. Some nice big houses and all that but I think it is an overpriced area.

If you don’t like the sea, probably the most beautiful coastline in Dublin , a vibrant little town with some amazing restaurants and decent bars and proximity to other similar places like glasthule and monkstown , aswell as having the dart for commuting then yeah I suppose it’s not for everyone

Timing belt

Cyrus wrote: »

I don’t disagree with most of this but I disagree with how impactful it will be, people that are career focused (int the main ) will still spend more of their time in the office than at home, they will still need to be commutable and will in the main be the higher earners who will dictate the prices for houses in desirable areas commutable to wherever their office is.

And this boards notion of some imbecilic middle manager who just monitors everyone all day and has now been found out is a straw man that disappeared from the work place decades ago I literally have never come across someone like that .

Employers will need to be careful or they will be before the courts if they don’t treat wfh employees the same as employees in the office

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

That would be a long commute for the days when you need to be in the office

3 hours drive. Road is quite good. As I said, it's just a quick back of the envelope example at this time in the morning

But, I personally don't see the WFH, once it's implemented, staying at 2 or 3 days in the office and 2 or 3 days at home.

Over time it will most likely gradually move to maybe once a month (if at all) in the office as what's the point in coming into the office 2 days a week if a person is able to WFH for the other 3 days. Seems pointless to me in most cases IMO

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

3 hours drive. Road is quite good. As I said, it's just a quick back of the envelope example at this time in the morning

But, I personally don't see the WFH, once it's implemented, staying at 2 or 3 days in the office and 2 or 3 days at home.

Over time it will most likely gradually move to maybe once a month in the office as what's the point in coming into the office 2 days a week if a person is able to WFH for the other 3 days. Seems pointless to me in most cases IMO

3 hours with no traffic....so leaving at 5:00 in morning to get in for 9:00 and home at 10:00.

Unless I had family or land there it wouldn’t be an option worth considering imo

Timing belt

Timing belt wrote: »

That would be a long commute for the days when you need to be in the office

If it's only one day a week, then it's easy to do

PropQueries

bubblypop wrote: »

If it's only one day a week, then it's easy to do

True. And, I also think this "blended" WFH/Office idea will be very very temporary.

What's really the point in forcing staff into the office for 2 days a week when the employer is perfectly happy and has obviously no security concerns regarding them working from home the other 3 days?

Here's a good example from 2017 which is way way before full time remote working became mainstream thinking.

The people in this article work in Tralee and work remotely for companies such as Rabobank, Zurich Insurance etc. It's in a hub but shows where it's going IMO

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/tralee-start-up-hub-puts-workers-at-the-centre-of-things-1.3113984

Timing belt

bubblypop wrote: »

If it's only one day a week, then it's easy to do

If you had no connection to the place would you really choose somewhere that is a 3/4 hour drive away or would you pick somewhere closer... It's like saying everyone will move to live in Leitrim as they have the cheapest houses.

jill_valentine

Timing belt wrote: »

If you had no connection to the place would you really choose somewhere that is a 3/4 hour drive away or would you pick somewhere closer... It's like saying everyone will move to live in Leitrim as they have the cheapest houses.

For a lot of folks like myself, the options would be a) buy outside of Dublin or b) rent in Dublin forever.

Renting in Ireland is awful so owning a home in Leitrim, if you only have to commute part of the week, isn't the self evidently unappealing option you might think. After a year or two in lockdown, pubs may not be to the forefront of anyone's mind. Somewhere like Cavan town has plenty of them anyway, and plenty of affordable property, if you could work from there.

Wrt to middle management - with the transition to WFH a number of companies I know have invested heavily in workload planning/KPI monitoring platforms which, themselves, requires management. Managing it is a more or less full time role and people doing it are effectively middle management.

I'll note too that my companies' management are pretty much full time WFH for the last year, with maybe a day or two every two months in office. It's the footsoldiers like me who still have to come in. So in practice being full time WFH isn't considered a barrier to advancing, it's just a luxury of rank.

TheSheriff

bubblypop wrote: »

If it's only one day a week, then it's easy to do

If it's one day per week required

Our very liberal WFH policy the past few years (WFH any two days per week whenever you like) was built on the premise you would be available to the company in person when needed for meetings etc.

This will likely make you think twice about the move to castlebar.

You had WFH booked on a Monday, but there's a team meeting etc. Then you came in, without question.

To think the company won't reserve this right is head in the sky stuff.

To also believe WFH won't come with many many clauses is head in the sky stuff.

Timing belt

Timing belt wrote: »

If you had no connection to the place would you really choose somewhere that is a 3/4 hour drive away or would you pick somewhere closer... It's like saying everyone will move to live in Leitrim as they have the cheapest houses.

But lots of people do have connections down the country.
My brother & the girlfriend were looking at Mayo, no connections there.

Just as an aside, I knew a woman over 15 years ago, lived in Galway and travelled to Dublin once a week to the office.

Edit, depending where, leitrim is only two hours from Dublin:)

awec

schmittel wrote: »

If the holy grail is the luas green line is that not sort of proving the point that the biggest attraction these properties is not the area itself, but the ease with which you can get somewhere else?

Of course? The ease of which you can get somewhere else is a huge factor.

Dundrum is popular because it’s a nice area and you can be in Stephen’s green in 20 minutes.

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

If it's one day per week required

Our very liberal WFH policy the past few years (WFH any two days per week whenever you like) was built on the premise you would be available to the company in person when needed for meetings etc.

This will likely make you think twice about the move to castle at.

You had WFH booked on a Monday, but there's a team meeting etc. Then you came in, without question.

To think the company won't reserve this right is head in the sky stuff.

Pre-Zoom?

A lot has changed in relation to how meetings take place over the past 11 months IMO

Yes, they had such software before, but now everyone is used to it including upper management.

Zenify

Does anyone know if the shared equity scheme is 100% going ahead? No recent articles on it and I can't find if it has passed or not...?

I'm just hoping to god they don't do it.

The_Conductor

awec wrote: »

Of course? The ease of which you can get somewhere else is a huge factor.

Dundrum is popular because it’s a nice area and you can be in Stephen’s green in 20 minutes.

30 years ago- the only thing Dundrum had going for it- was proximity to UCD, and it was student land- a-la Rathmines or Clonskeagh.

Dundrum is somewhere you can commute from- and there is an inherent need to commute from there, given its current primary selling points are that massive shopping centre and its cinema.

Personally- I just don't get the fascination people have with living in Dundrum- I don't deny that for some people its the be-all and end-all, for me, I'm scratching my head as to just why its such a 'desirable' place to live, I just don't see it as having, well anything- other than good transport links.

Perhaps I'm being unfair- but I genuinely don't see what the area has to justify the irrational draw people have to it.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Of course? The ease of which you can get somewhere else is a huge factor.

Dundrum is popular because it’s a nice area and you can be in Stephen’s green in 20 minutes.

But there's no benefit to being close to Stephen's Green anymore. And being 20 minutes to St. Stephen's Green is definitely not worth paying an extra €200k for a house for the vast majority of families IMO

schmittel

schmittel wrote: »

If the holy grail is the luas green line is that not sort of proving the point that the biggest attraction these properties is not the area itself, but the ease with which you can get somewhere else?

Weird post imo, one of the attractions of any place is the ease by which you can get somewhere else. It's why 1m+ people live in Dublin and relatively very few people live in West Cork or Inishowen.

awec

The_Conductor wrote: »

30 years ago- the only thing Dundrum had going for it- was proximity to UCD, and it was student land- a-la Rathmines or Clonskeagh.

Dundrum is somewhere you can commute from- and there is an inherent need to commute from there, given its current primary selling points are that massive shopping centre and its cinema.

Personally- I just don't get the fascination people have with living in Dundrum- I don't deny that for some people its the be-all and end-all, for me, I'm scratching my head as to just why its such a 'desirable' place to live, I just don't see it as having, well anything- other than good transport links.

Perhaps I'm being unfair- but I genuinely don't see what the area has to justify the irrational draw people have to it.

Who cares what it was like 30 years ago?

It has frequent, cheap and short travel times into the city centre. And I mean right into the city centre, unlike the DART. While this is a big commute factor, it is also a huge social factor. You can also easily get to other popular places like Ranelagh very quickly and easily.

You can have the suburban house with a city lifestyle and you car could spend the majority of it's time sitting on your driveway.