2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

But there's no benefit to being close to Stephen's Green anymore. And being 20 minutes to St. Stephen's Green is definitely not worth paying an extra €200k for a house for the vast majority of families IMO

This is nonsense. I see we're back to just making things up again PropQueries.

L1011

awec wrote: »

It has frequent, cheap and short travel times into the city centre. And I mean right into the city centre, unlike the DART.

Tara Street, particularly the rear entrance, is right in the city centre.

awec

L1011 wrote: »

Tara Street, particularly the rear entrance, is right in the city centre.

Yea fair point. I get the DART into the city now when I used to get the Luas, I always feel like I have to walk more after getting off the DART to get to somewhere I'd want to go, but that's maybe just me.

6541

I don't know has this got anything to do with housing. If you look into media leaks coming from the government it appears they are prepping the population for tax hikes and rocky financial times ahead...

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

This is nonsense. I see we're back to just making things up again PropQueries.

How popular would Stephen's Green be if there were no offices within walking distance? Stephen's Green is no different to any other town center park in any other town in Ireland IMO

I very much doubt very many people travel to the city to visit Stephen's Green and if an estate agent's selling point is "Stephen's Green is only a 20 minute train ride away", I think they need to update their selling tactic for the WFH generation IMO

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Of course? The ease of which you can get somewhere else is a huge factor.

Dundrum is popular because it’s a nice area and you can be in Stephen’s green in 20 minutes.

Of course, but the point is if the biggest factor driving the price in Dundrum is that you can be in Stephens green is 20 mins, WFH is likely to impact the price more than somewhere that the biggest factor is, for example, being on the coast.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

How popular would Stephen's Green be if there were no offices within walking distance? Stephen's Green is no different to any other town center park in any other town in Ireland IMO

I very much doubt very many people travel to the city to visit Stephen's Green and if an estate agent's selling point is "Stephen's Green is only a 20 minute train ride away", I think they need to update their selling tactic for the WFH generation IMO

the generation that doesnt exist yet? you might be jumping the gun

JimmyVik

TheSheriff wrote: »

And indeed alot of the counter arguments are, "The cat is out of the bag with regards WFH; its going to change everything; we can all live in the commuter belt; I am moving to Leitrim etc."

Ok, so I haven't seen that last one yet. The point being it will likely release a pressure valve in Dublin, but I wouldn't underestimate the desire of professionals to want to live around other similar professionals.

I don't see a mass exodus of tech workers; similarly as I didn't see a mass exodus of pharma workers when WFH became relatively norm a number of years ago.

WFH will be a god send for those who simply cannot afford to live in Dublin, and great for them.

I think Goatstown will be just fine, and I have absolutely zero vested interested in somewhere like Goatstown!

There are a lot of stars that have to align where a couple with a child or 2 are concerned for them all to move down the country.


Both adults have to decide that
a)Adult one has to want to do it
b)Adult two has to want to do it
c)Adult one has to decide its right for the children to move away
d)Adult two has to decide its right for the children to move away
e)Adult ones employer has to go for it
f)Adult twos employer has to go for it
g)Theres the whole selling and buying aspect too. What if country houses are going up so there isnt much difference anymore between the value of the houses bought and sold for the move.

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

Despite renting in Blackrock for a while, mostly been because I fell into it. Wouldn’t pay the premium to buy there personally. Although it’s improved as of late with the one way and quality in the Blackrock market, there’s only so nice a place can be when it has an Eddie Rockets beside a Wetherspoons. But anyway, I know that wasn’t your point!

Having read back I probably should have been clearer. I’m using examples of the “A-“ places in SCD vs the “A+” places. I’m not throwing Dundrum in with Tallaght or something, I’m particularly focusing on the ‘next best (and most expensive) thing’ after the really top spots. I’m not familiar with prices in Tallaght but I suspect they don’t have anywhere near as far to fall.

Every place will have those who want to live there because they grew up/have family there. But the buyers I’m focusing on are the young high earning blow-ins who haven’t a major affinity to any particular area. As someone in that category, I would have initially looked at Sandymount, Dalkey, Ranleagh etc. Struggled to stomach the prices, where to next?

A year ago if we decided to settle a bit on location we would have 100% have ended up in a slightly less nice area in roughly the same vicinity (e.g. Goatstown/Dundrum). Now there’s no chance we’ll do that. We might still push ourselves to buy in Dalkey. But if we do settle and accept we can’t have our dream location, we’ll settle for somewhere further out because we can now. Hence my supposition that the current differentials between those areas might stretch a bit.

How crucial to the very high prices in these “A-“ areas are my demographic and how representative am I (and a few of my friends in very similar boats) of that demographic? Not sure! Wouldn’t be unusual for someone to overestimate the prevalence of something because they experienced it themselves so I am very open to the fact I’m completely wrong!

I think what you are saying is this, if you won the lotto and had 10m to spend on a house in the morning in dublin where would it be, for most people it will be between blackrock and dalkey if they want to be on the coast, and D4 or D6 if they prefer proximity to the city. (there are some that prefer the northside aswell, so you can include howth and sutton)

Its unlikely to be dundrum, stillorgan, goatstown etc.

So i think thats what you mean by a+ and a- areas.

Maybe im wrong?

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Pre-Zoom?

A lot has changed in relation to how meetings take place over the past 11 months IMO

Yes, they had such software before, but now everyone is used to it including upper management.

Actually no, very little has changed in terms of how meetings take place for some organisations.

I work in a large global company, I spent alot of my day on Skype / zoom calls pre-covid with international arms of the business.

Your arguments don't hold truth.

The fact is, we had a functional WFH / blended policy pre covid.

People still chose to live in the surrounding geographic locations i.e. Dublin, Wicklow, Meath. There was not an exodus to Leitrim because a house was 200k cheaper.

There was a need (imposed by the company) to have a proximity to the office. Unless a company commits to a fully distributed workplace with no office presence this will not change.

I can tell you in the pharma sector this will not happen.

I am not sure how many more times you can be told this. What your suggesting has not happened/may not happen. What I am telling you is fact from the previous years working in a large company which had a WFH policy (and yes we had zoom).

hometruths

JimmyVik wrote: »

There are a lot of stars that have to align where a couple with a child or 2 are concerned for them all to move down the country.


Both adults have to decide that
a)Adult one has to want to do it

b)Adult two has to want to do it
c)Adult one has to decide its right for the children to move away

d)Adult two has to decide its right for the children to move away

e)Adult ones employer has to go for it

f)Adult twos employer has to go for it
g)Theres the whole selling and buying aspect too. What if country houses are going up so there isnt much difference anymore between the value of the houses bought and sold for the move.

No doubt the impact of WFH will be felt most by buyers who don't yet have children, because clearly uprooting settled kids will be one of the biggest factors affecting any decision.

But, having said that, I am fortunate enough to have the security of owning my house - I took that a bit for granted until I had kids. Now I realise just how important it is.

If I was renting with two small kids, the most important factor to me would be security of housing in a good area. Far more important than their schools, my job, partners job etc.

If it was a stretch for me to buy in a good area in Dublin, but I could afford a decent area further out, i wouldn't think twice about it.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

How popular would Stephen's Green be if there were no offices within walking distance? Stephen's Green is no different to any other town center park in any other town in Ireland IMO

I very much doubt very many people travel to the city to visit Stephen's Green and if an estate agent's selling point is "Stephen's Green is only a 20 minute train ride away", I think they need to update their selling tactic for the WFH generation IMO

Yes PropQueries, I guess this is true in the same way Stephens Green is no different to Times Square in New York. :rolleyes:

I am not entirely convinced you understand current generations. I think you are under the impression that people are living in the city reluctantly.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Of course, but the point is if the biggest factor driving the price in Dundrum is that you can be in Stephens green is 20 mins, WFH is likely to impact the price more than somewhere that the biggest factor is, for example, being on the coast.

Anywhere that has excellent transport links to the city centre will maintain value better than places that don't.

It is not people in Dundrum who need to worry, it's those in transport black spots.

TheSheriff

awec wrote: »

Yes PropQueries, I guess this is true in the same way Stephens Green is no different to Times Square in New York. :rolleyes:

I am not entirely convinced you understand current generations. I think you are under the impression that people are living in the city reluctantly.

This is the underlying tone in every argument put forward for that poster.

It's bizarre.

We are all here against our will, and long for Leitrim, Sligo and Wexford.

hometruths

TheSheriff wrote: »

This is the underlying tone in every argument put forward for that poster.

It's bizarre.

We are all here against our will, and long for Leitrim, Sligo and Wexford.

Bit OT, but I've never really understood why Wexford is slightly sneered at. Wexford Town seems very nice to me. Am I missing anything?

Im not personally convinced by the arguments that people just prefer to stay in dublin, nor that companies and people wont react to wfh by widening the distances they might be willing to commute if it was on a less frequent basis and traffic generally was thinned out.

Both of those things are high in the minds of many people ive spoken to in the past year, and sure not all jobs will move and sure there will still be a dublin/proximity premium but the idea that it will stay at the current level as the post-covid landscape emerges in the medium term seems like people trying to convince themselves rather than a look at the priority motivators for buyers

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Bit OT, but I've never really understood why Wexford is slightly sneered at. Wexford Town seems very nice to me. Am I missing anything?

It's not being sneered at, but it's a small rural town. It is the notion that everyone living in the city is dying to get that move to the small rural town, only held back by the chains of the office commute, that is nonsensical.

What is even more bizarre is this is coming off the back of an article that suggested 90% of FTBs in the city were not considering leaving!

AdamD

Some of you seem oddly convinced that the only reason people want to live in Dublin is due to work

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Anywhere that has excellent transport links to the city centre will maintain value better than places that don't.

It is not people in Dundrum who need to worry, it's those in transport black spots.

That's obviously true. What will change is the premium that a buyer would have paid pre-covid compared to post-covid WFH for these same transport links.

Paying a €200k premium for good transport links before may reduce to e.g. a €50k premium IMO

So, yes, people in Dundrum etc. should be very worried indeed IMO

gourcuff

think wexford is sneered at because its become full of dubs tbh, its gone a bit costa del sol,

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Bit OT, but I've never really understood why Wexford is slightly sneered at. Wexford Town seems very nice to me. Am I missing anything?

Wexford is very nice. My parents spent a lot of time there after retirement as they had a holiday home in Rosslare. It improved a lot over the last 25 years. Then with the N11.... also accessible to warterford and Kilkenny.....but is there a Starbucks.

awec

awec wrote: »

It's not being sneered at, but it's a small rural town. It is the notion that everyone living in the city is dying to get that move to the small rural town, only held back by the chains of the office commute, that is nonsensical.

What is even more bizarre is this is coming off the back of an article that suggested 90% of FTBs in the city were not considering leaving!

Agreed that the poster in question isnt putting forward anything much of substance but i also think the case will hold true for a fair amount of people.

There will be movement out of the cities until the balance of affordability/"livability" is found again, if that second term is even a word

awec

Hubertj wrote: »

Wexford is very nice. My parents spent a lot of time there after retirement as they had a holiday home in Rosslare. It improved a lot over the last 25 years. Then with the N11.... also accessible to warterford and Kilkenny.....but is there a Starbucks.

Starbucks? That is so 2010 Hubertj...

It's all about the small independent self-roasters these days!

TheSheriff

schmittel wrote: »

Bit OT, but I've never really understood why Wexford is slightly sneered at. Wexford Town seems very nice to me. Am I missing anything?

Of all the claims on this thread, this is one of the least OT.

People need to wake up a small bit, not everyone living in Dublin is doing so through gritted teeth every day.

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

Of all the claims on this thread, this is one of the least OT.

People need to wake up a small bit, not everyone living in Dublin is doing so through gritted teeth every day.

Not everyone

Not no-one, either

Why is everyone in the either/or camp

JimmyVik

schmittel wrote: »

No doubt the impact of WFH will be felt most by buyers who don't yet have children, because clearly uprooting settled kids will be one of the biggest factors affecting any decision.

But, having said that, I am fortunate enough to have the security of owning my house - I took that a bit for granted until I had kids. Now I realise just how important it is.

If I was renting with two small kids, the most important factor to me would be security of housing in a good area. Far more important than their schools, my job, partners job etc.

If it was a stretch for me to buy in a good area in Dublin, but I could afford a decent area further out, i wouldn't think twice about it.

Thats your end of the decision done then

Only the mrs and the two employers to go

gourcuff

AdamD wrote: »

Some of you seem oddly convinced that the only reason people want to live in Dublin is due to work

but for a lot of irish people the job was the only thing that brought them to dublin, many have no affection for the city and would much prefer to live elsewhere.

It doesn't rank high on the liveable city index, and irish people have experience now of vancouver, melbourne, sydney etc. i.e. their expectations of urban living/public realm has risen and quality of life/environment are massive factors.

I saw a fairly big exodus amongst my cohort once they could work remotely, will be interesting if employers don't force employees back full time to the office whether dublin will recover.

hardybuck

The_Conductor wrote: »

30 years ago- the only thing Dundrum had going for it- was proximity to UCD, and it was student land- a-la Rathmines or Clonskeagh.

Dundrum is somewhere you can commute from- and there is an inherent need to commute from there, given its current primary selling points are that massive shopping centre and its cinema.

Personally- I just don't get the fascination people have with living in Dundrum- I don't deny that for some people its the be-all and end-all, for me, I'm scratching my head as to just why its such a 'desirable' place to live, I just don't see it as having, well anything- other than good transport links.

Perhaps I'm being unfair- but I genuinely don't see what the area has to justify the irrational draw people have to it.

Dundrum, and its general environs, is a fantastic place to live. Not too busy while having absolutely everything in close proximity. The village proper itself is a bit lifeless (you wouldn't go for a pint there) but that's why the 5-10 minute Luas journey to Ranelagh comes in handy.

<SNIP>

JimmyVik

TheSheriff wrote: »

This is the underlying tone in every argument put forward for that poster.

It's bizarre.

We are all here against our will, and long for Leitrim, Sligo and Wexford.

TBH I wouldnt mind living down the country now that im in my 40s.

Never would have dreamt of it before though. Grew up in the country, couldnt wait to get out of it.
But since hitting 40, country life doesnt seem so bad to me anymore.


The other half, being an out and out Dub, would never have it though.
Also Id like to be close to the kids (who live in Dublin with their mother), so that I can drop over in the evening or take them out in the afternoons. So thats another one against a country move for me.

jill_valentine

AdamD wrote: »

Some of you seem oddly convinced that the only reason people want to live in Dublin is due to work

Only reason, no, but it's a major one. Again, a very big question isn't do people want to live in Dublin, it's do people want to live in Dublin if it means never owning their own home? Are Dublin's pull factors enough to trump renting for life as a downside?

An awful lot of the people now in 30s, and so running out of time to get mortgages, are past the point where Dublin nightlife is a selling point, or they moved up for work while young and are now cycling back around to thinking about the places they grew up.

The_Conductor

Deleted User wrote: »

<SNIP>

And what is your view on this speculation?

PropQueries

gourcuff wrote: »

but for a lot of irish people the job was the only thing that brought them to dublin, many have no affection for the city and would much prefer to live elsewhere.

It doesn't rank high on the liveable city index, and irish people have experience now of vancouver, melbourne, sydney etc. i.e. their expectations of urban living/public realm has risen and quality of life/environment are massive factors.

I saw a fairly big exodus amongst my cohort once they could work remotely, will be interesting if employers don't force employees back full time to the office whether dublin will recover.

I think the best way to see how popular Dublin City really is is to ask someone with a family who works and lives in e.g. Dun Laoghaire or Swords.

How many times a year do they really travel to the city centre? In most cases, I would presume very very little, if at all.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the best way to see how popular Dublin City really is is to ask someone with a family who works and lives in e.g. Dun Laoghaire.

How many times a year do they really travel to the city centre? In most cases, I would presume very very little, if at all.

Might be better off asking them if they would actually prefer living in a small country town than living in Dun Laoghaire.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

It's not being sneered at, but it's a small rural town. It is the notion that everyone living in the city is dying to get that move to the small rural town, only held back by the chains of the office commute, that is nonsensical.

What is even more bizarre is this is coming off the back of an article that suggested 90% of FTBs in the city were not considering leaving!

Nobody is saying everybody living in the city is dying to get out!

It's that undoubtedly a greater number of people will look to buy outside Dublin than otherwise would have done so if it were not for Covid/WFH.

This will be driven mainly by affordability, not because they hate Dublin.

If 10% of FTBers who would have bought in Dublin decide to buy else where combined with 10% of renters in Dublin decide to rent elsewhere, it will have a huge effect on Dublin prices.

But obviously Dublin will always be the most popular and the most expensive place to buy property in the country.

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

Might be better off asking them if they would actually prefer living in a small country town than living in Dun Laoghaire.

I'd throw people living in Lucan and all similar towns in Co. Dublin in as well. Dublin City offers very very little entertainment or shopping wise anymore for the vast vast majority of working people.

wassie

jill_valentine wrote: »

An awful lot of the people now in 30s, and so running out of time to get mortgages, are past the point where Dublin nightlife is a selling point.

Running out of time in your 30s to get a mortgage?

fliball123

Cyrus wrote: »

the generation that doesnt exist yet? you might be jumping the gun

I tend to agree I think it will be the next generation as in the school goers now who are now proficient at doing school work from and watching mam and dad work from home who will bring about the WFH to being the new norm. There are still a high number of jobs that physically need someone there to do the work. I cant see WFH having much impact on the Irish property market for at least another 5 years.

hometruths

JimmyVik wrote: »

Thats your end of the decision done then

Only the mrs and the two employers to go

Unsurprisingly married to someone who shares the same view.

Even if I was not self employed, I'd get a different job, if employer said no. That would have been a far riskier/maybe impossible decision pre WFH.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

I'd throw people living in Lucan and all similar towns in Co. Dublin in as well. Dublin City offers very very little entertainment or shopping wise anymore for the vast vast majority of working people.

You are grasping here
Dublin does not offer very little to those people.
It offers far more than any rural town does.
Remember, you have to think about what Dublin has to offer when its up and running, not on its knees in a pandemic.

HopsAndJumps

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the best way to see how popular Dublin City really is is to ask someone with a family who works and lives in e.g. Dun Laoghaire or Swords.

How many times a year do they really travel to the city centre? In most cases, I would presume very very little, if at all.

I live in DL. Pre pandemic I would get the dart into town at least three times a week. 17 minutes from my dart stop to Tara street, there is so much to do in this city. (Was so much to do )

gourcuff

London's population fell by c.700k its claimed, obviously dublins not in the same league as London but its instructive of covid impact..


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/covid-19-london-s-population-fell-by-700-000-amid-exodus-of-foreign-born-residents-from-uk-1.4458762

jill_valentine

wassie wrote: »

Running out of time in your 30s to get a mortgage?

Yes. How much you are offered by several institutions is calculated with consideration for how many years you have left before whatever they consider retirement age, ie how many working years you have to pay it back. That can make a significant difference.

I'm thirty five, from now on every year I get older shaves a few thousand off the max mortgage offer I can get.

Remember, 3.5 times your salary is only the cap. There's nothing stopping banks offering you less than that.

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

I think what you are saying is this, if you won the lotto and had 10m to spend on a house in the morning in dublin where would it be, for most people it will be between blackrock and dalkey if they want to be on the coast, and D4 or D6 if they prefer proximity to the city. (there are some that prefer the northside aswell, so you can include howth and sutton)

Its unlikely to be dundrum, stillorgan, goatstown etc.

So i think thats what you mean by a+ and a- areas.

Maybe im wrong?

Much more succinctly put - thanks! And I guess from there I'm saying that given we COVID isn't affecting the better off, there's likely to remain enough very wealthy people, and sufficiently few "lotto locations" to maybe allow those to do ok. But it's the next layer down, where people are paying big money for houses but not living in their dream location that might suffer most from the changing cost/benefit analysis of living in Dublin when WFH is a thing!

PropQueries

HopsAndJumps wrote: »

I live in DL. Pre pandemic I would get the dart into town at least three times a week. 17 minutes from my dart stop to Tara street, there is so much to do in this city. (Was so much to do )

Maybe you believe so. So for three times a week, that's 150 times a year.


What exactly did you do with your family 150 times a year in Dublin City?

hardybuck

DataDude wrote: »

Much more succinctly put - thanks! And I guess from there I'm saying that given we COVID isn't affecting the better off, there's likely to remain enough very wealthy people, and sufficiently few "lotto locations" to maybe allow those to do ok. But it's the next layer down, where people are paying big money for houses but not living in their dream location that might suffer most from the changing cost/benefit analysis of living in Dublin when WFH is a thing!

By the way, no sign of prices slowing down. Properties in D14 are still going above asking in 2021, and in some cases going sale agreed at 5-10% higher than identical properties sold for in Q4 2020.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Bit OT, but I've never really understood why Wexford is slightly sneered at. Wexford Town seems very nice to me. Am I missing anything?

i know wexford very well, and wexford town itself is ok as rural towns go, but even small dublin suburbs like blackrock or dalkey have more going on in terms of restaurants, eateries etc than wexford town, and the rest of the town's in the county (maybe im doing gorey a disservice havent been there in a while) are on their knees.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe you believe so.

believe it or not, not everyone has the same utter disdain as you do for the city centre.

Greenlights16

Agree with poster above.

Dublin has most definitely NOT a whole pile of things to do, most are weather reliant which is hilarious considering the climate we live in.

What this pandemic has showed us is that once you take the pub and restaurant culture away from Dublin, most notably the pubs, it’s sucked the life out of it completely.

People are much more in love with coastal areas and countryside villages around the country now, and as the poster above has said, this is going to be for the long term because of the reality of permanent WFH.

A worker in donegal or cork will be able to drive / commute upto the big corporate Dublin office 1/2 days a week to show their face/be nice to team mates you don’t even like/collaborate and work from their beautiful home away from the kip of a Dublin office.

As much as our own government want to try and keep everything in Dublin, this juggernaut is not going to stop. All for the better. The country will develop much more as a whole

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

Nobody is saying everybody living in the city is dying to get out!

It's that undoubtedly a greater number of people will look to buy outside Dublin than otherwise would have done so if it were not for Covid/WFH.

This will be driven mainly by affordability, not because they hate Dublin.

If 10% of FTBers who would have bought in Dublin decide to buy else where combined with 10% of renters in Dublin decide to rent elsewhere, it will have a huge effect on Dublin prices.

But obviously Dublin will always be the most popular and the most expensive place to buy property in the country.

This! Dublin will always have a premium - we are not all crazy's suggesting the time of Leitrim has come and it will soon pass Goatstown in prices. Of course some people will always want to stay in Dublin. But I'm surprised the idea that people (particularly those starting families) may start to weight up the pro's and cons of the 5 bed in Maynooth with a garden vs the 3 bed-semi D in SCD through a slightly different lens - Echoing the comment of another poster, I too have heard so so many people discuss this over the last year.

I'd be interested to know, of those saying absolutely no way WFH will make much difference at all to where people choose to live, how many already own their own home in Dublin and can't relate to the struggle of two young workers earning €45k each with two young children trying to make their way in Dublin!

The thing that makes me believe it will be impactful is, most "change" has opposing forces acting and it can be hard aggregate those to work out the net effect. On this one, I cannot see how more WFH could encourage someone who previously wasn't living in the city to now do so (although perhaps others might have theories on this). It is a fact that some will choose to move further afield. As it's a one directional shift, the only question is how big a shift and how soon!