2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

cnocbui

Availability is going to get worse, not better - IMO, paricularly outside Dublin, where very few houses were built since 2008, due their construction cost being greater than their finished market value.

70% of young people still living in the family home would suggest demand will be considerable for some time.

Reins

Deleted User wrote: »

I reached sale agreed back in September but it seems like it's falling through now. I haven't looked at daft since... have prices risen or am I imagining things?

Do you mind sharing as to why it looks like it's going to fall through?

jill_valentine

jill_valentine wrote: »

I'm afraid they do seem to have, as supply has dried up considerably. It may start moving again when lockdown starts easing, but who knows.

Here's hoping. Though I have more wiggle room as I've saved more over the past six months.

yagan

cnocbui wrote: »

Availability is going to get worse, not better - IMO, paricularly outside Dublin, where very few houses were built since 2008, due their construction cost being greater than their finished market value.

70% of young people still living in the family home would suggest demand will be considerable for some time.

I've been looking a particular area in north county Dublin and I'm seen a lot of the same property over €350K not moving, but there's been plenty of turnover of new builds aimed under that price according to the PPR.

The market up to the lending limit seem active, but above that it seems to have stalled.

Stark

jill_valentine wrote: »

I'm afraid they do seem to have, as supply has dried up considerably. It may start moving again when lockdown starts easing, but who knows.

I read somewhere that a lot of older people are afraid to open their homes up for viewings at the moment so that's restricting supply somewhat.

jill_valentine

Stark wrote: »

I read somewhere that a lot of older people are afraid to open their homes up for viewings at the moment so that's restricting supply somewhat.

I can well believe it, and fair enough really.

Bit of a killer though, I would have had my pick of places I want with my current approval this time last year, but instead the goals feel further away than ever.

Marius34

Stark wrote: »

I read somewhere that a lot of older people are afraid to open their homes up for viewings at the moment so that's restricting supply somewhat.

Not sure what will be the impact, but majority of old people(70+) to be vaccinated in March.

combat14

Mortgage rates could rise again if Ulster Bank quits

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/mortgage-rates-could-rise-again-if-ulster-bank-quits-40075014.html

hard to believe talk of rate rises again - adds to certainty buying house

wassie

Stark wrote: »

I read somewhere that a lot of older people are afraid to open their homes up for viewings at the moment so that's restricting supply somewhat.

I've had a few agents report that they see a big problem with many current owners wanting to trade up but aren't prepared to go to market as theres nothing to trade up to....and round it goes....

Timing belt

combat14 wrote: »

Mortgage rates could rise again if Ulster Bank quits

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/mortgage-rates-could-rise-again-if-ulster-bank-quits-40075014.html

hard to believe talk of rate rises again - adds to certainty buying house

Any rise will be less 0.2% as it is not a rate rise by the ECB but the banks increasing their margin because of less competition if they get away with it.

awec

Stark wrote: »

I read somewhere that a lot of older people are afraid to open their homes up for viewings at the moment so that's restricting supply somewhat.

I doubt it's just older people.

Could you really be arsed with selling your house with the way things are right now?

Gradius

Following on from my posts in the "currently buying/selling"thread...

If you could only view history through economic graphs, in this case property prices, would you be able to identify the impact of a year+ global pandemic?

Should be obvious that "something very bad happened at this point", right?

Yet 2020 may as well be 2019. Strange!

cnocbui

Gradius wrote: »

Following on from my posts in the "currently buying/selling"thread...

If you could only view history through economic graphs, in this case property prices, would you be able to identify the impact of a year+ global pandemic?

Should be obvious that "something very bad happened at this point", right?

Yet 2020 may as well be 2019. Strange!

Hardly going to be a boom year for housing stock construction, so shouldn't surprise at all.

Hubertj

Gradius wrote: »

Following on from my posts in the "currently buying/selling"thread...

If you could only view history through economic graphs, in this case property prices, would you be able to identify the impact of a year+ global pandemic?

Should be obvious that "something very bad happened at this point", right?

Yet 2020 may as well be 2019. Strange!

What would be the last pandemic? Spanish flu? It would be an interesting comparison but I think other factors would have to be considered. For example, I presume the economic impact of WW1 would have had an negative impact on prices.
During COVID governments have been able to borrow large amounts of money to support the economy and some sections of the economy haven’t been impacted very much. So would such a comparison actually inform us as to what might happen over the coming 12-24 months?

Gradius

cnocbui wrote: »

Hardly going to be a boom year for housing stock construction, so shouldn't surprise at all.

On the contrary, I find it not only surprising but bewildering.

Millions dead, employment numbers going through the floor, businesses closing left and right, no clear end in sight, debt spiralling out of control and so on and so on.

Just robbing a few graphs taken willy nilly to illustrate my overall point point...





I would confidently argue a lot of statistics floating around are supremely "optimistic" (if you don't like the word "cooked"). Yet, despite these hard realities, the likes of the below is happening in real time...





There is something seriously wrong with the overall picture here, seriously wrong.

Sierra Oscar

Gradius wrote: »

On the contrary, I find it not only surprising but bewildering.

Millions dead, employment numbers going through the floor, businesses closing left and right, no clear end in sight, debt spiralling out of control and so on and so on.

Just robbing a few graphs taken willy nilly to illustrate my overall point point...





I would confidently argue a lot of statistics floating around are supremely "optimistic" (if you don't like the word "cooked"). Yet, despite these hard realities, the likes of the below is happening in real time...





There is something seriously wrong with the overall picture here, seriously wrong.

The huge fall in new completions was always going to cushion any sort of a shock to property prices. Likewise, the presence of the PUP is keeping people out of work afloat and many couples who are still both working are saving an incredible amount of their monthly salaries. I'd argue that a lot of the people who have become unemployed, i.e. workers in the hospitality sector, weren't really the ones in the market to purchase a home and aren't the ones driving up prices.

Central Banks globally are also engaged in quantitive easing on a scale that has never been seen in the history of monetary policy. A lot of the money being created will inevitably end up finding its way into the housing market, as it has done so since the previous financial crisis.

I would agree with you though, it is all a bit mad.

Ninap

Gradius wrote: »

On the contrary, I find it not only surprising but bewildering.

Millions dead, employment numbers going through the floor, businesses closing left and right, no clear end in sight, debt spiralling out of control and so on and so on.

Just robbing a few graphs taken willy nilly to illustrate my overall point point...





I would confidently argue a lot of statistics floating around are supremely "optimistic" (if you don't like the word "cooked"). Yet, despite these hard realities, the likes of the below is happening in real time...





There is something seriously wrong with the overall picture here, seriously wrong.

The graph doesn’t shown ‘the impact of Covid on the stock market’. Instead it shows what has happened to the stock market during the period of the pandemic. And what has caused the large rise in prices is very clearly huge Cental Bank-provided liquidity, in search of a home.

Hubertj

Gradius wrote: »

On the contrary, I find it not only surprising but bewildering.

Millions dead, employment numbers going through the floor, businesses closing left and right, no clear end in sight, debt spiralling out of control and so on and so on.

Just robbing a few graphs taken willy nilly to illustrate my overall point point...





I would confidently argue a lot of statistics floating around are supremely "optimistic" (if you don't like the word "cooked"). Yet, despite these hard realities, the likes of the below is happening in real time...





There is something seriously wrong with the overall picture here, seriously wrong.

Some interesting info here. But in relation to the daft.ie pic I think that is asking prices and not actual prices. I believe 2020 prices as per CSO were about level compared to 2019 with increases and decreases in different areas.

Gradius

The huge fall in new completions was always going to cushion any sort of a shock to property prices. Likewise, the presence of the PUP is keeping people out of work afloat and many couples who are still both working are saving an incredibly amount of their monthly salaries. I'd argue that a lot of the people who have become unemployed, i.e. workers in the hospitality sector, weren't really the ones in the market to purchase a home and aren't the ones driving up prices.

Central Banks globally are also engaged in quantitive easing on a scale that has never been seen in the history of monetary policy. A lot of the money being created will inevitably end up finding its way into the housing market, as it has done so since the previous financial crisis.

I would agree with you though, it is all a bit mad.

Of course! The point is that the property market (and more) is almost diametrically opposed to reality: the worse shape the economy becomes, the better outlook people have!

But as you say, it's essentially make-believe. A bad company is about to go bust, a central bank buys the debt, and suddenly individuals are buying up stock like it's magically a "good" company. The reality is that nothing has changed, except you've been convinced into buying shares in a bad company.

But that kind of show can only last so long.

Gradius

The graph doesn’t shown ‘the impact of Covid on the stock market’. Instead it shows what has happened to the stock market during the period of the pandemic. And what has caused the large rise in prices is very clearly huge Cental Bank-provided liquidity, in search of a home.

Oh I know, just roughly grabbing an overall view of things. It's pie in the sky stuff, magic money.

But it all has to be paid for, someday soon.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

I wonder for how many years prices in Dublin / Kildare will continue to rise for? Seems at least 3/4 until supply catches up.

Gradius

]Some interesting info here. But in relation to the daft.ie pic I think that is asking prices and not actual prices. I believe 2020 prices as per CSO were about level compared to 2019 with increases and decreases in different areas.

Of course there's a ton of better information, but even if prices overall stayed flat it would be shocking to me.

For humours sake, it's like an alien invasion going around the planet laying waste to this that and the rest, yet public sentiment remains the same, or actually improved on the future.

What?! :P

fliball123

Gradius wrote: »

Of course! The point is that the property market (and more) is almost diametrically opposed to reality: the worse shape the economy becomes, the better outlook people have!

But as you say, it's essentially make-believe. A bad company is about to go bust, a central bank buys the debt, and suddenly individuals are buying up stock like it's magically a "good" company. The reality is that nothing has changed, except you've been convinced into buying shares in a bad company.

But that kind of show can only last so long.

What evidence have you got that Ireland inc is about to go bust? We will have borrowed 30Billion extra on top of 210 Billion at 0% interest. This will be seen as a near zero sum with the the existing 210 Billion being refinanced at a lower rate than what it was borrowed at.

Just on the economy A lot of companies have been forced to close due to government policy and not due to liquidity or cash flow problems. We will get a snapshot later this year when the vaccine is administered and COVID is assigned to the past and we open back up for the last time without threat of lockdown. We also have record numbers of savings ever seen in Irish bank accounts so people have the cash and currently they cannot spend their money. Add in people can WFH meaning they can buy further out from the big cities and work and pay less for a property.

The reality is people need somewhere to live, the reality is in a lot of cases with interest rates so low its cheaper to pay a mortgage than rent not to mention some security knowing your not at the will of a landlord and in this country banks in a lot of cases are put off taking back the "family home" you only have to look at pips and other left leaning orgs that are fighting the "good fight" for this. Irish property is a cultural thing here in this country people from a young age are encouraged to "get on the ladder" this mentality has not changed.

Gradius

MattS1 wrote: »

I wonder for how many years prices in Dublin / Kildare will continue to rise for? Seems at least 3/4 until supply catches up.

At this point I'm convinced that if a cosmic singularity sucked Dublin/Kildare into the void, with nothing but a black hole in it's place, you'd STILL have people trying to outbid each other for it.

I don't know if I've ever seen anything so irrational and shortsighted in my life.

Even the 2008 recession could be seen as a genuine surprise to many, but this debacle might as well have the hubble telescope in terms of seeing it coming.

Gradius

fliball123 wrote: »

What evidence have you got that Ireland inc is about to go bust? We will have borrowed 30Billion extra on top of 210 Billion at 0% interest. This will be seen as a near zero sum with the the existing 210 Billion being refinanced at a lower rate than what it was borrowed at.

Just on the economy A lot of companies have been forced to close due to government policy and not due to liquidity or cash flow problems. We will get a snapshot later this year when the vaccine is administered and COVID is assigned to the past and we open back up for the last time without threat of lockdown. We also have record numbers of savings ever seen in Irish bank accounts so people have the cash and currently they cannot spend their money. Add in people can WFH meaning they can buy further out from the big cities and work and pay less for a property.

The reality is people need somewhere to live, the reality is in a lot of cases with interest rates so low its cheaper to pay a mortgage than rent not to mention some security knowing your not at the will of a landlord and in this country banks in a lot of cases are put off taking back the "family home" you only have to look at pips and other left leaning orgs that are fighting the "good fight" for this. Irish property is a cultural thing here in this country people from a young age are encouraged to "get on the ladder" this mentality has not changed.

Far too many ifs and maybes in your reasoning.

When is public spending going to end on this? Who says it's only going to be 30 billion?

Later this year we'll have a cure-all vaccine? When's that?

The next lockdown will be the last one?

The option to work from home is simply going to remain?

Record savings perhaps, but people piling it into ifs and maybes at very high prices. Bit of a moot point to say you saved a million quid and then spend it immediately.

"The reality is people need a place to live..." Yeah, like 2007?

You might be right that this will all work out happily, but I'm not betting on it, not going by what's happening here and now.

fliball123

Gradius wrote: »

At this point I'm convinced that if a cosmic singularity sucked Dublin/Kildare into the void, with nothing but a black hole in it's place, you'd STILL have people trying to outbid each other for it.

I don't know if I've ever seen anything so irrational and shortsighted in my life.

Even the 2008 recession could be seen as a genuine surprise to many, but this debacle might as well have the hubble telescope in terms of seeing it coming.

I believe its all over the country if anything Dublin prices have stayed steady its out side of Dublin the biggest increases have been seen. I would hardly call buying a home shortsighted you dont know what someone situation is.

Well you seem to think we heading for a crash so the good news for you is all you have to do is wait for it if you looking to buy no one is putting a gun to your head enjoy your wait, it could be a long time.

HansKroenke

The booming stock market and juced property prices while the real economy is in a precarious state is begging for interest rates to be raised in a few years once the covid dust settles. Like GDP, the CPI is somewhat unreliable to back up many claims which rely on it, particularly as a measure of inflation. There are significant State savings to be made by hitching the policy wagon to a CPI which indicates low inflation. But I don't think it is sustainable to claim that there is little inflation, all that debt in the system before covid was already causing problems under the surface and now the covid-inspired money printing is already revving the inflation engine, which needs a valve to release some of the heat at some point in the form of interest rate increases. Again, likely not for at least a couple of years.

Edit: I realise this is a bit of a bigger point than just property so just to say that there is a good, albeit a bit simple, rule in the property market to buy when no one else is buying; and sell when no one else is selling. Right now a lot of people want to buy but not a lot of people are selling.

Gradius

fliball123 wrote: »

I believe its all over the country if anything Dublin prices have stayed steady its out side of Dublin the biggest increases have been seen. I would hardly call buying a home shortsighted you dont know what someone situation is.

Well you seem to think we heading for a crash so the good news for you is all you have to do is wait for it if you looking to buy no one is putting a gun to your head enjoy your wait, it could be a long time.

It is the whole country. And not just this country.

And I didn't state that buying a home is shortsighted, I'm implying that buying a home NOW, at these prices that in no shape or form reflect reality, is shortsighted.

As I said earlier, property prices have had zero reaction to this global pandemic. Zero. Does that make sense against practically everything else getting blasted out of it? It does not.

I'm grand in terms of everything here. And I know others aren't. It's all a joke at this point, and the best of luck to all

fliball123

Gradius wrote: »

Far too many ifs and maybes in your reasoning.

When is public spending going to end on this? Who says it's only going to be 30 billion?

Later this year we'll have a cure-all vaccine? When's that?

The next lockdown will be the last one?

The option to work from home is simply going to remain?

Record savings perhaps, but people piling it into ifs and maybes at very high prices. Bit of a moot point to say you saved a million quid and then spend it immediately.

"The reality is people need a place to live..." Yeah, like 2007?

You might be right that this will all work out happily, but I'm not betting on it, not going by what's happening here and now.

That's the predicted figure

https://www.thejournal.ie/paschal-donohoe-covid-19-5099473-May2020/

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0128/1193593-annual-report-on-public-debt-in-ireland-2020/

Have you not been watching we have already over 230k doses of vaccine administered in the country. I seen a timeline of August/September when we will have enough to do the entire population.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-vaccine-tracker-over-230000-doses-administered-in-ireland-1077794.html

Not sure when or if there will be another lockdown (lets get out of this one first)

A lot of companies will embrace WFH or some kind of hybrid model where you will work in the office 2/3 days a week. Personally my company started a WFH 3 years ago I have not been in an office in 3 years. So there will definitely be more take up especially with the big tech companies the likes of Google, Apple, Twitter etc have said WFH will be an option going forward. But it wont be there for everyone.

The point about the savings is that its not exactly the doom and gloom that your trying to make out not everyone has been financially effected. Everyone is entitled to spend their hard earned savings on what they want and a % will do so on property. What that % will be is who knows.

As for a place to live as a little exercise for yourself even during the last downturn post 2008 check out how many repossession of the "family home" were enforced and get back to me..Like I say everyone has to live somewhere.

Cool you should have a look at the 2020 Irish property market chat - people like yourself were a dime a dozen and were all proven wrong. Good luck in your future endeavors but like I say I hope your not left waiting

Gradius

fliball123 wrote: »

That's the predicted figure

https://www.thejournal.ie/paschal-donohoe-covid-19-5099473-May2020/

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0128/1193593-annual-report-on-public-debt-in-ireland-2020/

Have you not been watching we have already over 230k doses of vaccine administered in the country. I seen a timeline of August/September when we will have enough to do the entire population.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-vaccine-tracker-over-230000-doses-administered-in-ireland-1077794.html

Not sure when or if there will be another lockdown (lets get out of this one first)

A lot of companies will embrace WFH or some kind of hybrid model where you will work in the office 2/3 days a week. Personally my company started a WFH 3 years ago I have not been in an office in 3 years. So there will definitely be more take up especially with the big tech companies the likes of Google, Apple, Twitter etc have said WFH will be an option going forward. But it wont be there for everyone.

The point about the savings is that its not exactly the doom and gloom that your trying to make out not everyone has been financially effected. Everyone is entitled to spend their hard earned savings on what they want and a % will do so on property. What that % will be is who knows.

As for a place to live as a little exercise for yourself even during the last downturn post 2008 check out how many repossession of the "family home" were enforced and get back to me..Like I say everyone has to live somewhere.

Cool you should have a look at the 2020 Irish property market chat - people like yourself were a dime a dozen and were all proven wrong. Good luck in your future endeavors but like I say I hope your not left waiting

As for government projections, I'll believe them when it ends, and not before.

About the vaccines, I'll believe it when I see it, and not before.

As for working from home, we'll see.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make about house repossessions. Is it that people feel emboldened now to saddle themselves with any amount of debt, confident they can just ride it out? Is that a good thing?

As for whatever people were saying about property during 2020, it has zero impact on the facts of the matter. If some nutter manages to not kill himself by jumping off a cliff repeatedly, his survival is DESPITE the facts of the matter and not because of them. He will die because of the facts.

Just so, property prices maintaining themselves DESPITE employment, DESPITE global economy, DESPITE expenditure, DESPITE unprecedented certainty, DESPITE bloody everything is, in reality, in spite, and not BECAUSE of the situation. Right now, not later, not if, not maybe, not speculation. Right now.

And I already said I'm not affected by any of this, I'll be waiting for nothing. What was that phrase from before, "don't be cribbing on the sidelines"? Yeah, that's not me either. I'm simply pointing out the complete absurdity of it all.

Timing belt

Gradius wrote: »

On the contrary, I find it not only surprising but bewildering.

Millions dead, employment numbers going through the floor, businesses closing left and right, no clear end in sight, debt spiralling out of control and so on and so on.

Just robbing a few graphs taken willy nilly to illustrate my overall point point...





I would confidently argue a lot of statistics floating around are supremely "optimistic" (if you don't like the word "cooked"). Yet, despite these hard realities, the likes of the below is happening in real time...





There is something seriously wrong with the overall picture here, seriously wrong.

There are rational reasons for everything that is happening it's not something out of the twilights zones.
1) its not surprising that there is no GDP growth when most of the world is in lock down for weeks on end with covid....what is surprising is that it is that the drop is not larger than we are seeing and this is down to government intervention whether it is the pup or stimulus cheques.

2) We have massive unemployment due to covid yet again this is not a surprise with business shut. What is a surprise is that we are not seeing 25%+ figures and that is mainly down to governments not counting people on PUP as unemployed. This also makes sense as a large % of these people will go back to jobs after covid. What we also know is that there are % of people that will not have a jobs to go back to as the businesses will have failed.

3) Increase in house prices is not down to the fact that their is a chronic shortage of supply in Ireland because if this was the only driver then it would not explain why property prices all over the world have increased since the start of the pandemic. Instead you need to look at the impact that rate cuts have always had on house prices and remember that QE is the equivalent of a historical Rate cut. Add on top of this the fact that banks have excess liquidity and will gladly lend. Irish house prices would be way higher only for the CBI rules as the banks would be lending more to lower thier liquidity like we see in other countries. The the final nail in the coffin is that low interest rate environment is driving investment in property as people look for a return in an environment where it is near impossible to get one without accepting large risks.


4) The stock markets are valued higher than they were before covid not because they think the underlying companies are now in a better financial position than before. There price valuations are due to the low interest rate environment. If you look at bond's valuations the price has gone through the roof with 1000%+ returns as central banks undertake QE and drive bond yields lower. This has encouraged most investors that do not need to hold bonds for regulatory purposes to cash out their gains. Now where are they going to put their cash... in a bank at negative rates or in other asset classes such as the stock market, property, Crypto, gold. Even if the stock market has a 10% correction they are still 990% better off than before all this started. Add on top then that you have retail investors who likewise are getting low to zero returns from a bank who see the stock market rising and think hey I want a piece of this action to make a quick buck.

Will it all end it tears... yes most probably but we don't know when. Interest rates have been falling for 30+ years keeping the show on the road... now they have hit zero they have gone negative and we have QE. People say that inflation will be the pin that pops the bubble but we are not seeing inflation in the CPI at moment because the velocity of money falls with QE. To put this in English people are not spending money.... If you went back a number of years cash would have changed hands 8+ times during a year... it is now down to 1.5 or something like that... If people are not spending we will not see inflation as the extra money is not chasing a limited supply of goods. Will this change possibly if consumer confidence grows but that is unlikely in an environment with unemployment and companies failing but that is just IMO.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

Will it all end it tears... yes most probably but we don't know when. Interest rates have been falling for 30+ years keeping the show on the road... now they have hit zero they have gone negative and we have QE. People say that inflation will be the pin that pops the bubble but we are not seeing inflation in the CPI at moment because the velocity of money falls with QE. To put this in English people are not spending money.... If you went back a number of years cash would have changed hands 8+ times during a year... it is now down to 1.5 or something like that... If people are not spending we will not see inflation as the extra money is not chasing a limited supply of goods. Will this change possibly if consumer confidence grows but that is unlikely in an environment with unemployment and companies failing but that is just IMO.

Velocity has tanked because people are locked in their houses saving money, with limited spending options.

It is likely to rocket when covid is behind us.

Sweet.Science

Level 5 lockdowns until April at least . Seems crazy to shut this down for half the year

hometruths

In what is becoming a pattern, yet another of Prop's theories that was lambasted as nonsense on here, turns out to be bang on the money.

PropQueries wrote: »

Given how easy it is now for people to apply for approval online from several lenders at the same time and with people working from home, they also have more time to research and apply across several lenders, would comparing approval statistics over the past few months to approvals in previous years be misleading?

Cyrus wrote: »

applying for AIP was never difficult, are you actually suggesting the fact people are wfh means they are applying for more AIP than when they were at the office :rolleyes: is there no tangent you wont try and go off on?

From a major mortgage lender this week in the Irish Times:

“We’re seeing a huge increase in mortgage applications, but, based on actual follow-through with all the required documents, a portion of these may just be using time on their hands at home to simply test the water.”

Similarly, because major lenders have made the preliminary mortgage-application process relatively straightforward, once you’ve compiled all the documents you need – bank statements, salary slips, rent records and so on – you can easily apply to two or three banks.

First-time buyers: Surge in demand may not be all that it seems

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Velocity has tanked because people are locked in their houses saving money, with limited spending options.

It is likely to rocket when covid is behind us.

Velocity of money has been slowing down for years well before Covid. That is not to say that it will continue like that...something like the banks charging negative interest rates to retail customers could change that quickly or a increase in global GDP. Both things are unlikely in the short term and instead we are likely to see the economy limp on with the aid of more stimulus disguised as a green wave or as universal credit.

Graham

Timing belt wrote: »

we are likely to see the economy limp on with the aid of more stimulus disguised as a green wave or as universal credit.

I think almost the exact opposite once COVID is under control. I reckon things will ramp up pretty quickly.

Stimulus money, savings from the significant number able to WFH, suppressed demand and a general feeling of wahaay let me the **** out of here.

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

I think almost the exact opposite once COVID is under control. I reckon things will ramp up pretty quickly.

Stimulus money, savings from the significant number able to WFH, suppressed demand and a general feeling of wahaay let me the **** out of here.

But as someone posted recently, how many additional haircuts, pints, meals out etc. can people spend these savings on once the economy does reopen.

Plus, I think it would be interesting to see what percentage of these additional savings are due to the older groups e.g. pensioners being unable to spend any money.

And given this weeks plan to tax all PUP payments received this year in this current tax year if someone returns to work this year, I think the state is planning to grab a significant chunk of these additional savings in some form or other.

The state isn't going to get it back through some hoped for spending bounce once the economy does fully reopen, which will now be most likely next year at the earliest as they're not going to encourage everyone back to the office and onto public transport between September 2021 and February 2022, even if the vaccine programme rolls out as expected IMO

AdamD

schmittel wrote: »

In what is becoming a pattern, yet another of Prop's theories that was lambasted as nonsense on here, turns out to be bang on the money.





From a major mortgage lender this week in the Irish Times:



First-time buyers: Surge in demand may not be all that it seems

Not sure that add up either, what incentive is there for anyone to 'follow through' when the property market is essentially dead until lockdown ends?

JimmyVik

Gradius wrote: »

Of course! The point is that the property market (and more) is almost diametrically opposed to reality: the worse shape the economy becomes, the better outlook people have!

But as you say, it's essentially make-believe. A bad company is about to go bust, a central bank buys the debt, and suddenly individuals are buying up stock like it's magically a "good" company. The reality is that nothing has changed, except you've been convinced into buying shares in a bad company.

But that kind of show can only last so long.

Oh, you mean just like property
You can slot the government in for the central bank there.
And property for company.

thefridge2006

schmittel wrote: »

In what is becoming a pattern, yet another of Prop's theories that was lambasted as nonsense on here, turns out to be bang on the money.





From a major mortgage lender this week in the Irish Times:



First-time buyers: Surge in demand may not be all that it seems

I think a smug DART commuting property bull will have to change his dietary requirements from caviar to humble pie when this is all over and do a lot of apologising to Props.

Props has been on this forum for a long time and I really enjoy reading their views. I have a feeling a lot of what they say will end up being the truth.

They get huge stick about their population theory but if you read the below in yesterdays Times, its one of the main points.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/do-not-listen-to-estate-agents-house-prices-will-go-down-not-up-1.4480537

Keep it up Props, i have a feeling we'll be looking back on your posts in a few years and some will be wondering why they didn't take their head out of the sand and listen to you

JimmyVik

schmittel wrote: »

Velocity has tanked because people are locked in their houses saving money, with limited spending options.

It is likely to rocket when covid is behind us.

It will only rocket if the government dont scare people by taxing them more.
If they keep their word and dont put their hand in peoples pocket in any way, shape or form, them i think people will have confindence to start spending.


But start messing with taxes, stealth taxes or any other sneaky way to extract money from people and they will just button up and not spend.

awec

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cost-of-new-homes-pushed-up-by-brexit-driven-rise-of-timber-prices-bxb28p9d9

The cost of new builds will continue to rise because Brexit and a backlog in forestry licences has increased the price and scarcity of timber, a hardware representative has said.

Martin Markey, the Hardware Association chief executive, said the cost of timber has increased 12 per cent in the past three months due to new trade regulations with Great Britain and because thousands of forestry licences are waiting to be processed by the Department of Agriculture.

And in fairness to PropQueries, this article is in the IT this morning:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/local-authorities-can-deliver-housing-at-more-affordable-rates-1.4481486

When developed directly by the local council, the figures show the average construction costs for a two-bed apartment last year was €230,300, while the average cost of a three-bed house was €214,076.

Which is relatively close to what he was saying and does raise questions about DCCs 400k figure.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

In what is becoming a pattern, yet another of Prop's theories that was lambasted as nonsense on here, turns out to be bang on the money.





From a major mortgage lender this week in the Irish Times:



First-time buyers: Surge in demand may not be all that it seems

I don't think the point that AIPs are a pretty worthless indicator was unique to PropQueries on here. I think it's a point that has been made my numerous posters, myself included.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

I don't think the point that AIPs are a pretty worthless indicator was unique to PropQueries on here. I think it's a point that has been made my numerous posters, myself included.

The point Props was making and lambasted for was that the uptick could be down to people having more time on their hands, an increase in tyre kicking than genuine demand. A lender is quoted in the IT today confirming exactly the same view.

JimmyVik

awec wrote: »

I don't think the point that AIPs are a pretty worthless indicator was unique to PropQueries on here. I think it's a point that has been made my numerous posters, myself included.

Me too.
I said this before, but I still have multiple ones active and only used one on closing with that lender. I actually am still AIP with others even though ive already closed.
And I think it was always thus for AIPs, even pre-covid.

Graham

schmittel wrote: »

The point Props was making and lambasted for was that the uptick could be down to people having more time on their hands, an increase in tyre kicking than genuine demand. A lender is quoted in the IT today confirming exactly the same view.

How do you tell the difference between a tyre kicker and someone that can't find the property they're looking for?

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

How do you tell the difference between a tyre kicker and someone that can't find the property they're looking for?

No doubt those more experienced in the field than you and I can tell the difference:

“We’re seeing a huge increase in mortgage applications, but, based on actual follow-through with all the required documents, a portion of these may just be using time on their hands at home to simply test the water.”

AdamD

schmittel wrote: »

The point Props was making and lambasted for was that the uptick could be down to people having more time on their hands, an increase in tyre kicking than genuine demand. A lender is quoted in the IT today confirming exactly the same view.

Do you not think significant increases in saving, leading to more people having a deposit built up will lead to more demand? When the market actually opens

hometruths

AdamD wrote: »

Do you not think significant increases in saving, leading to more people having a deposit built up will lead to more demand? When the market actually opens

Yes I do, but I am not sure what your point is?

AdamD

schmittel wrote: »

Yes I do, but I am not sure what your point is?

You literally just quoted a post saying the uptick is due to people having more time on their hands rather than actual demand. I think its pretty clear what my point is.

And the real answer, as ever, will be that both are a factor. Actual demand increasing and people having more time to enquire.