2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

DataDude

AdamD wrote: »

Do you not think significant increases in saving, leading to more people having a deposit built up will lead to more demand? When the market actually opens

It's an interesting one. Deposits are up 10.2% since COVID kicked in, and deposits have been trending up for a while so not all of the 10.2% can be attributed to COVID.

Assuming most people have a 10% deposit, that's 1.2% of house value that people have saved on average. Of course it's possible some people who were not previously buyers into the buyer net, but also suspect most additional saving is being done by those with higher discretionary spend (ski trips, summer holidays etc.) for whom deposits were unlikely to be an issue.

Overall it will have some effect, but hard to say how much. And also, as it's a one off event any effect it has will not be a sustainable one.

Another poster also mentioned here which was a great point, everyone assumes more savings is because of an inability to spend, but it's also possible that people are saving more out of caution/worry (classic recession problem). Doubt the cohort of worriers are planning to get involved in bidding wars on houses post lockdown!

JimmyVik

DataDude wrote: »

It's an interesting one. Deposits are up 10.2% since COVID kicked in, and deposits have been trending up for a while so not all of the 10.2% can be attributed to COVID.

Assuming most people have a 10% deposit, that's 1.2% of house value that people have saved on average. Of course it's possible some people who were not previously buyers into the buyer net, but also suspect most additional saving is being done by those with higher discretionary spend (ski trips, summer holidays etc.) for whom deposits were unlikely to be an issue.

Overall it will have some effect, but hard to say how much. And also, as it's a one off event any effect it has will not be a sustainable one.

Another poster also mentioned here which was a great point, everyone assumes more savings is because of an inability to spend, but it's also possible that people are saving more out of caution/worry (classic recession problem). Doubt the cohort of worriers are planning to get involved in bidding wars on houses post lockdown!

Where do they get the deposits number from?
Are they including things like stock brokers, N26, revolut etc.
Most of the money I have saved I have put into equities and pension.
I also have a big chunk just sitting in buckets in N26 and Revolut at the moment before I decide whether to invest it or blow it when covid is over
Pretty sure im not unique.

hometruths

AdamD wrote: »

You literally just quoted a post saying the uptick is due to people having more time on their hands rather than actual demand. I think its pretty clear what my point is.

And the real answer, as ever, will be that both are a factor. Actual demand increasing and people having more time to enquire.

Great, if both are a factor then you'd agree that Prop's original assumption was not tangential nonsense, which is the point I was making.

Browney7

awec wrote: »

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cost-of-new-homes-pushed-up-by-brexit-driven-rise-of-timber-prices-bxb28p9d9



And in fairness to PropQueries, this article is in the IT this morning:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/local-authorities-can-deliver-housing-at-more-affordable-rates-1.4481486



Which is relatively close to what he was saying and does raise questions about DCCs 400k figure.

Is the IT reading the thread here and props is the Canary in the coal mine? In fairness, DCC's figures seemed off the wall bonkers and need probing and scrutiny.

Don't see what they stood to gain by stating their costs were so much markedly higher - did they just simply not want to manage building projects?

DataDude

JimmyVik wrote: »

Where do they get the deposits number from?
Are they including things like stock brokers, N26, revolut etc.
Most of the money I have saved I have put into equities and pension.
I also have a big chunk just sitting in buckets in N26 and Revolut at the moment before I decide whether to invest it or blow it when covid is over
Pretty sure im not unique.

Not sure actually. I just pulled from the CBI stats.
I'm sure you're not unique but at the same time, I don't think too many FTB'ers struggling to put together their first deposit are piling hugely into their pension or equities! Could be wrong though.

HansKroenke

AdamD wrote: »

Do you not think significant increases in saving, leading to more people having a deposit built up will lead to more demand? When the market actually opens

One point to note on increased deposits is that earnings could have been cut or stalled due to covid so the borrowers might have saved an extra 15k deposit but a salary drop of 5k completely cancels that out in terms of being able to spend more on a place. However, if course, it might have meant the person now has a deposit.

thefridge2006

JimmyVik wrote: »

Where do they get the deposits number from?
Are they including things like stock brokers, N26, revolut etc.
Most of the money I have saved I have put into equities and pension.
I also have a big chunk just sitting in buckets in N26 and Revolut at the moment before I decide whether to invest it or blow it when covid is over
Pretty sure im not unique.

I have wondered the same myself actually.
Maybe there isn't a huge increase of savings at all but a huge increase in where people save eg Prize bonds or some other national saving scheme (that is easily seen). Maybe the money has stayed relatively steady but In the past people would have had way more options to save their money (where these reports can't see ) but with the incredibly low interest rates people might be just saving them in somewhere that is easily seen.

thefridge2006

HansKroenke wrote: »

One point to note on increased deposits is that earnings cut have been cut or stalled due to covid so the borrowers might have saved an extra 15k deposit but a salary drop of 5k completely cancels that out in terms of being able to spend more on a place. However, if course, it might have meant the person now has a deposit.

Also a lot of people are waiting to be let go. The bullets are loaded and ready to go once the PUP is gone. if you don't have a job, ya cant get a mortgage

fliball123

Gradius wrote: »

As for government projections, I'll believe them when it ends, and not before.

About the vaccines, I'll believe it when I see it, and not before.

As for working from home, we'll see.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make about house repossessions. Is it that people feel emboldened now to saddle themselves with any amount of debt, confident they can just ride it out? Is that a good thing?

As for whatever people were saying about property during 2020, it has zero impact on the facts of the matter. If some nutter manages to not kill himself by jumping off a cliff repeatedly, his survival is DESPITE the facts of the matter and not because of them. He will die because of the facts.

Just so, property prices maintaining themselves DESPITE employment, DESPITE global economy, DESPITE expenditure, DESPITE unprecedented certainty, DESPITE bloody everything is, in reality, in spite, and not BECAUSE of the situation. Right now, not later, not if, not maybe, not speculation. Right now.

And I already said I'm not affected by any of this, I'll be waiting for nothing. What was that phrase from before, "don't be cribbing on the sidelines"? Yeah, that's not me either. I'm simply pointing out the complete absurdity of it all.

I agree with your first two points you have to wait to see . About repossessions I am pointing out that a buyer with a mortgage living in their family home has a lot more protection than someone renting in a downturn when people start losing jobs. It also removes supply that other people may well of been able to take up if repossessions happened on a large scale. This did not happen after 2008 and it will not happen in the next few years even if we are hit harder than the recession of 2008. There are too many left leaning mouthpieces that have put the gun to politicians heads and unfortunately the public sector with unions has another gun on the other side. I never said it was a good thing not at all I was just stating how it is.

Whatever people are saying about property in 2020 the facts speak for themselves we had an increase in prices (modest) in the face of a global pandemic and Brexit. That is the facts. Could it be that supply vs demand = prices trumps all other ecconomic factors? The year 2020 would suggest YES.

Employment just as you mentioned about vaccines and government policy. I will believe the unemployment figures when companies are no longer closed by government policy you, I or anyone else will not know the actual figure until that happens. You cant cherry pick predictions either we can predict all aspects or none.

Property prices are how they are not only due to your list its also because of a chronic lack of supply
pent up demand
low interest rates
mortgage repayments < rent reapayments (in a lot of areas)
No emigration release value (currently)
Unprecedented savings

Once again you cant just cherry pick the doom and gloom factors and whitewash over the factors that are pushing prices up. I dont disagree with you about them by the way but your saying you dont understand why prices are going up and I have given your multiple reasons.

Buying a house now may seem absurd to you ..You have your house. Your not looking at it from other peoples point of view. Like I say regardless of the forces pushing prices up or down. People will more then likely make their decision on buying a house on their own issues. Such as

Our current place is too big or too small I need to move
I cant live with the parents any more
I am paying more in rent than what I would with a mortgage
I see a place where schools, shops, Work and other utilities are close and handy to get to.

These factors will influence a persons decision to buy a lot more than any others IMO.

DataDude

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Also a lot of people are waiting to be let go. The bullets are loaded and ready to go once the PUP is gone. if you don't have a job, ya cant get a mortgage

One of the most commonly mentioned points I see everywhere is "sure the people currently on PUP don't buy houses anyway, so this makes no difference". Surely ignores fact that, shockingly, sometimes accountants partner up with someone who works in a restaurant.

Always thought it came across weird to suggest nobody in these massive industries could ever possibly live in their own homes! Yet, it seems to be spouted regularly and largely taken as fact.

JimmyVik

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Also a lot of people are waiting to be let go. The bullets are loaded and ready to go once the PUP is gone. if you don't have a job, ya cant get a mortgage

I believe you are bang on there.
In my place there have already been meetings on the order of letting people go when the dust settles.
Probably other meetings going on above my head too with my bullet getting its name on it too

decreds

fliball123 wrote: »

That's the predicted figure

https://www.thejournal.ie/paschal-donohoe-covid-19-5099473-May2020/

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0128/1193593-annual-report-on-public-debt-in-ireland-2020/

Have you not been watching we have already over 230k doses of vaccine administered in the country. I seen a timeline of August/September when we will have enough to do the entire population.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-vaccine-tracker-over-230000-doses-administered-in-ireland-1077794.html

Not sure when or if there will be another lockdown (lets get out of this one first)

A lot of companies will embrace WFH or some kind of hybrid model where you will work in the office 2/3 days a week. Personally my company started a WFH 3 years ago I have not been in an office in 3 years. So there will definitely be more take up especially with the big tech companies the likes of Google, Apple, Twitter etc have said WFH will be an option going forward. But it wont be there for everyone.

The point about the savings is that its not exactly the doom and gloom that your trying to make out not everyone has been financially effected. Everyone is entitled to spend their hard earned savings on what they want and a % will do so on property. What that % will be is who knows.

As for a place to live as a little exercise for yourself even during the last downturn post 2008 check out how many repossession of the "family home" were enforced and get back to me..Like I say everyone has to live somewhere.

Cool you should have a look at the 2020 Irish property market chat - people like yourself were a dime a dozen and were all proven wrong. Good luck in your future endeavors but like I say I hope your not left waiting

I find it ironic that the links posted from different websites are actually all under the same media umbrella and as for August/September for entire vaccination of the population, i wouldn't be surprised if it was August/September 2022.

Agree with you that WFH will be a hybrid approach but i do think that this will impact the market. We will only see the true economic impact of all this once restrictive lockdowns end and government support is withdrawn, when this occurs is anyone's guess.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

One of the most commonly mentioned points I see everywhere is "sure the people currently on PUP don't buy houses anyway, so this makes no difference". Surely ignores fact that, shockingly, sometimes accountants partner up with someone who works in a restaurant.

Always thought it came across weird to suggest nobody in these massive industries could ever possibly live in their own homes! Yet, it seems to be spouted regularly and largely taken as fact.

Agreed, it also assumes that people who buy houses are operating in some sort of vacuum. In reality baristas losing their jobs can be the wings of the butterfly effect.

fliball123

decreds wrote: »

I find it ironic that the links posted from different websites are actually all under the same media umbrella. This shows a very narrow bias in your research.


And as for August/September for entire vaccination of the population, i wouldn't be surprised if it was August/September 2022.

Well Vaccinations it could well be 2022 it could be 2023. I was simply pointing out what the government had predicted but they do get an awful lot of stuff wrong. What we do know is 230k as of the 8th of Feb have been vaccinated.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

No doubt those more experienced in the field than you and I can tell the difference:

We should be accurate in this. The article is clearly worded in a way where they don't actually know if people are just waiting or not.

awec

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I have wondered the same myself actually.
Maybe there isn't a huge increase of savings at all but a huge increase in where people save eg Prize bonds or some other national saving scheme (that is easily seen). Maybe the money has stayed relatively steady but In the past people would have had way more options to save their money (where these reports can't see ) but with the incredibly low interest rates people might be just saving them in somewhere that is easily seen.

Or, in the far more likely scenario, savings are actually up among those saving for houses.

fliball123

awec wrote: »

We should be accurate in this. The article is clearly worded in a way where they don't actually know if people are just waiting or not.

I reckon there are a lot of delays (no one knows what the breakdown is its all open to interpretation) I am looking at other threads on here there is one about currently buying or selling and posters from all of last year and this year are talking about how long its taken to go from approval to getting the keys and all of the different hurdles. Some have to re-apply again and again as they are waiting for something to come up and have been delayed with the added time corona has burdened simple procedures like searches and land registry etc. Some are saying they have to get documentation in on a monthly basis to their banks as the banks are demanding proof that the client's financial circumstances has not changed. Others are talking about having to wait until they have come off PUP and others are saying some insurance companies will not insure them in the middle of a pandemic. You add in the lack of supply and its clear that there are a lot of people waiting for the right house and unfortunately the supply currently is p1ss poor.

awec

fliball123 wrote: »

I reckon there are a lot of delays (no one knows what the breakdown in is its all open to interpretation) I am looking at other threads on here there is one about currently buying or selling and posters from all of last year and this year are talking about how long its taken to go from approval to getting the keys and all of the different hurdles. Some have to re-apply again and again as they are waiting for something to come up and have been delayed with the added time corona has burdened simple procedures like searches and land registry etc. Some are saying they have to get documentation in on a monthly basis to their banks as the banks are demanding proof that the client's financial circumstances has not changed. Others are talking about having to wait until they have come off PUP and others are saying some insurance companies will not insure them in the middle of a pandemic. You add in the lack of supply and its clear that there are a lot of people waiting for the right house and unfortunately the supply currently is p1ss poor.

I am sure it's numerous things.

I have no doubt that people have applied for mortgages to see if they can get approved but have no serious intention of moving forward. This is the category that Props and many others have alluded to.

I suspect others have applied but have been hit by the serious lack of supply.

And I suspect others have applied but been hit with a change of circumstances after applying.

AIP is a pretty useless indicator if you want to measure real demand. Anyone can apply, and banks can approve pretty much with no risk.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

We should be accurate in this. The article is clearly worded in a way where they don't actually know if people are just waiting or not.

As was Prop's original point.

fliball123

awec wrote: »

I am sure it's numerous things.

I have no doubt that people have applied for mortgages to see if they can get approved but have no serious intention of moving forward. This is the category that Props and many others have alluded to.

I suspect others have applied but have been hit by the serious lack of supply.

And I suspect others have applied but been hit with a change of circumstances after applying.

AIP is a pretty useless indicator if you want to measure real demand. Anyone can apply, and banks can approve pretty much with no risk.

Yeah there will be a good % doing that to see if they can get approved. But it begs the question why would you do it ?? I dont understand it myself, going through that hassle but I know people who have done it myself. Yeah which is why the mortgage drawdowns are a better indicator. 2020 was slow enough (better than 2018 but worse than 2019) but seemed to ramp right up in Q4 in 2020

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/value-of-mortgage-drawdowns-in-fourth-quarter-at-highest-level-in-12-years-1.4470501

It will be interesting to see how Q1 in 2021 goes was Q4 2020 an anomaly or is it going to the start of a trend?

Marius34

JimmyVik wrote: »

Where do they get the deposits number from?
Are they including things like stock brokers, N26, revolut etc.
Most of the money I have saved I have put into equities and pension.
I also have a big chunk just sitting in buckets in N26 and Revolut at the moment before I decide whether to invest it or blow it when covid is over
Pretty sure im not unique.

Those are not Household deposits. It's other financial assets, falling on different categories.

Billythekid19

DataDude wrote: »

One of the most commonly mentioned points I see everywhere is "sure the people currently on PUP don't buy houses anyway, so this makes no difference". Surely ignores fact that, shockingly, sometimes accountants partner up with someone who works in a restaurant.

Always thought it came across weird to suggest nobody in these massive industries could ever possibly live in their own homes! Yet, it seems to be spouted regularly and largely taken as fact.

I would say its the exception rather than the rule. In general its a lot more common for someone working in a restaurant to either be under the age of 30 or live with another person working in hospitality or both. I know quite a few accountants in their 30's and not one of them live with/ is married to a person working in hospitality.

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

The state isn't going to get it back through some hoped for spending bounce once the economy does fully reopen, which will now be most likely next year at the earliest as they're not going to encourage everyone back to the office

If as expected a portion of savings are used to buy homes. This will result in further outgoings by the state in the form of ftb grants and shared ownership schemes.

The most likely outlet for spending is foreign holidays as people use their childcare savings to take the family on a much needed break.

People in the rental market are effectively sterilised by the state due to its high cost so unfortunately very few will be partaking in this spending on any sector, nevermind housing

awec wrote:

Which is relatively close to what he was saying and does raise questions about DCCs 400k figure.

Would be interesting to know what the cost would be if you took out DCC from the calculation.
The cost (210k for a house) seems impressive.

People say we can't scale up.
What if we pooled the people in the best performing councils into one body and provide them with the funding resources to tackle supply in the worst hit areas

AdamD wrote:

And the real answer, as ever, will be that both are a factor. Actual demand increasing and people having more time to enquire.

We know that 50% of households cannot afford to buy at current prices. A far greater percentage of these will be renting
A person in a good position will apply to the bank that offers them the best deal and are unlikely to apply to other banks once they have obtained the best deal.

A person struggling will apply to multiple banks to see which, if any, will give them the amount they require to purchase.

DataDude

Billythekid19 wrote: »

I would say its the exception rather than the rule. In general its a lot more common for someone working in a restaurant to either be under the age of 30 or live with another person working in hospitality or both. I know quite a few accountants in their 30's and not one of them live with/ is married to a person working in hospitality.

Accountant/Hospitality was a purely hypothetical. But surely it is not uncommon for someone in an unaffected industry to be co-habiting with someone in an affected industry? That is the certainly the case for me where my partner has been on and off wage supports for the last year. Doesn't massively impact us but does reduce our borrowing potential by c. 150k.

I have no data on this but just looking in my own social circles and I know at least 4 couples in a similar scenario, and with some insane percentage of the population affected currently, that doesn't surprise me. It would actually shock me more if there was very little relationship overlap between those affected and not affected.

jill_valentine

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah there will be a good % doing that to see if they can get approved. But it begs the question why would you do it ?? I dont understand it myself, going through that hassle but I know people who have done it myself.

I'm in the process of applying for Rebuilding Ireland anyway, but if I wasn't I'd be idly thinking about a mortgage anyway after a year of varying levels of lockdown, because I'm going cracked in my rented crapshack and starting to despise my perfectly lovely flatmate out of pure cabin fever.

There's also the fact that the move away from in-person engagement by banks and brokers means it's far easier to apply online than it had been before. It now takes about 15 mins to get AIP from AIB online, and the broker I was using is all online too, so once you have scans/pdfs for one you might as well hoof it in for the others.

It's probably a minor factor also, but for my own case, I've currently got five active mortgage approvals inc 3 RI ones purely to facilitate the one I will actually end up using.

jill_valentine

DataDude wrote: »

Accountant/Hospitality was a purely hypothetical. But surely it is not uncommon for someone in an unaffected industry to be co-habiting with someone in an affected industry? That is the certainly the case for me where my partner has been on and off wage supports for the last year. Doesn't massively impact us but does reduce our borrowing potential by c. 150k.

Indeed. For the record I'm aware of an actual estate agent office where the whole staff were on wage supports, which did become a concern to staffmembers' own mortgage applications. It's not all baristas.

JimmyVik

Id really like to get to the bottom of how propeprty prices in Ireland will go this year and next.
I wonder if we will have it figures out by the weekend

Billythekid19

DataDude wrote: »

Accountant/Hospitality was a purely hypothetical. But surely it is not uncommon for someone in an unaffected industry to be co-habiting with someone in an affected industry? That is the certainly the case for me where my partner has been on and off wage supports for the last year. Doesn't massively impact us but does reduce our borrowing potential by c. 150k.

I have no data on this but just looking in my own social circles and I know at least 4 couples in a similar scenario, and with some insane percentage of the population affected currently, that doesn't surprise me. It would actually shock me more if there was very little relationship overlap between those affected and not affected.

I dont doubt that many people are affected as say their partner may be working in a different industry. Once covid levels out many (take airline industry or hospitality ) many will walk back into their jobs. I dont actually no of anyone in my social circles that has been put on the pup (mainly in their early 30's). All of these people are in a much stronger position to draw down a mortgage than 12 months ago. I think covid has really skewed peoples ability to either apply or not apply for a mortgage.

fliball123

jill_valentine wrote: »

I'm in the process of applying for Rebuilding Ireland anyway, but if I wasn't I'd be idly thinking about a mortgage anyway after a year of varying levels of lockdown, because I'm going cracked in my rented crapshack and starting to despise my perfectly lovely flatmate out of pure cabin fever.

There's also the fact that the move away from in-person engagement by banks and brokers means it's far easier to apply online than it had been before. It now takes about 15 mins to get AIP from AIB online, and the broker I was using is all online too, so once you have scans/pdfs for one you might as well hoof it in for the others.

It's probably a minor factor also, but for my own case, I've currently got five active mortgage approvals inc 3 RI ones purely to facilitate the one I will actually end up using.

Which is why I said mortgage drawdowns so people who have actually gone through with it is an a better measure

MacronvFrugals

Interesting blog post published by Salesforce Tuesday -

Salesforce declares the 9-to-5 workday dead, will let some employees work remotely from now on

Cloud computing company Salesforce is joining other Silicon Valley tech giants in announcing a substantial shift in how it allows its employees to work. In a blog post published Tuesday, the company says the “9-to-5 workday is dead” and that it will allow employees to choose one of three categories that dictate how often, if ever, they return to the office once it’s safe to do so.

Hyder cites picking up young kids from school or caring for sick family members as reasons why an employee should not be expected to report to work on a strict eight-hour shift every day. He also points to how the removal of strict in-office requirements will allow Salesforce to expand its recruitment of new employees beyond expensive urban centers like San Francisco and New York.

Fully remote is what it sounds like — never coming into the office except perhaps in very rare situations or for work-related events. Office-based employees will be “the smallest population of our workforce,” Hyder says, and constitute employees whose roles require them be in the office four to five days per week.

https://www.theverge.com/2021/2/9/22275304/salesfore-remote-work-9-to-5-workday-is-dead-flex-coronavirus

Cyrus

Hyder cites picking up young kids from school or caring for sick family members as reasons why an employee should not be expected to report to work on a strict eight-hour shift every day. He also points to how the removal of strict in-office requirements will allow Salesforce to expand its recruitment of new employees beyond expensive urban centers like San Francisco and New York.

yes and pay them less, thats how that will go.

Timing belt

JimmyVik wrote: »

Where do they get the deposits number from?
Are they including things like stock brokers, N26, revolut etc.
Most of the money I have saved I have put into equities and pension.
I also have a big chunk just sitting in buckets in N26 and Revolut at the moment before I decide whether to invest it or blow it when covid is over
Pretty sure im not unique.

The central bank collect the data from the regulatory returns from the financial institutions that are licensed in Ireland do yes they should capture your deposits with the exception of Revolut that is awaiting its banking license to be approved I think.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

If as expected a portion of savings are used to buy homes. This will result in further outgoings by the state in the form of ftb grants and shared ownership schemes.

The most likely outlet for spending is foreign holidays as people use their childcare savings to take the family on a much needed break.

People in the rental market are effectively sterilised by the state due to its high cost so unfortunately very few will be partaking in this spending on any sector, nevermind housing




Would be interesting to know what the cost would be if you took out DCC from the calculation.
The cost (210k for a house) seems impressive.

People say we can't scale up.
What if we pooled the people in the best performing councils into one body and provide them with the funding resources to tackle supply in the worst hit areas




We know that 50% of households cannot afford to buy at current prices. A far greater percentage of these will be renting
A person in a good position will apply to the bank that offers them the best deal and are unlikely to apply to other banks once they have obtained the best deal.

A person struggling will apply to multiple banks to see which, if any, will give them the amount they require to purchase.

emmm 50% of households cant afford to buy currently..Where are you getting that stat from??

https://www.averagesalarysurvey.com/ireland (2021)

Average salary in 2021 is 51k
Average median salary is 34k

if you take the lower value the Median as if I take the average people will give out.

So 34k * 2 (as almost all applications are 2 people) = 68k
68 * 3.5 (as this is what the Central banks allow you to borrow) =238k
add in your 10% deposit say 24k (10% for FTB and 20% for others)
so a person on or above the median wage meaning more than 50% of the working population can afford to buy a house for 262k

Myhome.ie currently has over 5700 properties for under 250k in the country. So over half the population can buy currently around half the current online stock for sale on my home..The facts don't agree with your opinion with this regard.

Timing belt

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I have wondered the same myself actually.
Maybe there isn't a huge increase of savings at all but a huge increase in where people save eg Prize bonds or some other national saving scheme (that is easily seen). Maybe the money has stayed relatively steady but In the past people would have had way more options to save their money (where these reports can't see ) but with the incredibly low interest rates people might be just saving them in somewhere that is easily seen.

Every possible place you can put money (banks, prize bonds, stock market, property) has seen a significant increase since QE started in 2015.

Whether it is additional saving or people moving funds around to find a better return is debatable but most analysis points to the second and because of this asset prices are rising making people feel wealthier. Just look at the net worth of Irish people since 2015 and see how it rose this isn’t because the stopped spending and saved more (if it was gni* would have dropped) it’s because their assets are worth more

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Interesting blog post published by Salesforce Tuesday -

Salesforce declares the 9-to-5 workday dead, will let some employees work remotely from now on







https://www.theverge.com/2021/2/9/22275304/salesfore-remote-work-9-to-5-workday-is-dead-flex-coronavirus

Blended working was never going to take off. It makes absolutely no sense asking employees to come into the office 2 days a week. It will either be fully in the office or fully WFH IMO.

I think this blended working idea came about when the commercial real estate investors started getting worried and were trying to arrive at a conclusion that all existing office space will still be needed post-covid.

Employers didn't fight against this concept because they were still getting their heads around the idea of remote working. But it's definitely either full time in the office or full time WFH going forward and there will be no in between blended model as it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever IMO.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Blended working was never going to take off. It makes absolutely no sense asking employees to come into the office 2 days a week. It will either be fully in the office or fully WFH IMO.

I think this blended working idea came about when the commercial real estate investors started getting worried and were trying to arrive at a conclusion that all existing office space will still be needed post-covid.

Employers didn't fight against this concept because they were still getting their heads around the idea of remote working. But it's definitely either full time in the office or full time WFH going forward and there will be no in between blended model as it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever IMO.

This is an incredible leap, even for you to take.

Surely the fact that numerous employers have announced blended working suggests it's here for now? One employer announces full wfh and PropQueries is now implying that blended working is dead.

This is why you get a hard time.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

This is an incredible leap, even for you to take.

Surely the fact that numerous employers have announced blended working suggests it's here for now? One employer announces full wfh and PropQueries is now implying that blended working is dead.

This is why you get a hard time.

What is the point in asking staff to come into the office 2 days a week when the employer is more than happy to allow them to WFH the other 3 days?


Makes absolutely no sense and the employees will start to show their frustration fairly quickly if blended working is implemented IMO

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

What is the point in asking staff to come into the office 2 days a week when the employer is more than happy to allow them to WFH the other 3 days?


Makes absolutely no sense and the employees will start to show their frustration fairly quickly if blended working is implemented IMO

Because there are benefits to being in the office, and blended gives people the best of both worlds.

I don't know why you think employees will show frustration, not really sure what you are basing this on. Blended working is likely to be extremely popular for those that want to work remotely.

What is particularly bizarre about your take on this is that you are declaring blended working dead based on an article where Salesforce say they'll offer blended work if employees want it.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Because there are benefits to being in the office, and blended gives people the best of both worlds.

I don't know why you think employees will show frustration, not really sure what you are basing this on. Blended working is likely to be extremely popular for those that want to work remotely.

What is particularly bizarre about your take on this is that you are declaring blended working dead based on an article where Salesforce say they'll offer blended work if employees want it.

Not at all. Actually made the exact same point yesterday (pre-salesforce article) and provided a link to how it already works for large companies like Rabobank and Zurich Insurance down the country:


"True. And, I also think this "blended" WFH/Office idea will be very very temporary.

What's really the point in forcing staff into the office for 2 days a week when the employer is perfectly happy and has obviously no security concerns regarding them working from home the other 3 days?

Here's a good example from 2017 which is way way before full time remote working became mainstream thinking.

The people in this article work in Tralee and work remotely for companies such as Rabobank, Zurich Insurance etc. It's in a hub but shows where it's going IMO

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...ings-1.3113984

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Not at all. Actually made the exact same point yesterday (pre-salesforce article) and provided a link to how it already works for large companies like Rabobank and Zurich Insurance down the country:


"True. And, I also think this "blended" WFH/Office idea will be very very temporary.

What's really the point in forcing staff into the office for 2 days a week when the employer is perfectly happy and has obviously no security concerns regarding them working from home the other 3 days?

Here's a good example from 2017 which is way way before full time remote working became mainstream thinking.

The people in this article work in Tralee and work remotely for companies such as Rabobank, Zurich Insurance etc. It's in a hub but shows where it's going IMO

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...ings-1.3113984

Why do you think Rabo and Zurich are going to be the companies that define the direction here, and not the multitude of significantly larger companies that have announced a blended offering?

Are you sure this is not confirmation bias on your part? Try to find a company that offers remote work, google it, find a few, present this as proof that remote work is the future and that blended has failed.

JohnnyChimpo

PropQueries wrote: »

What is the point in asking staff to come into the office 2 days a week when the employer is more than happy to allow them to WFH the other 3 days?

Of all your let's say "niche" opinions, this is the most mystifying so far. It's extremely easy to understand why employers would see utility in having employees to come into office sometimes - for all-hands meetings, training sessions, knowledge sharings, big project milestones, etc.

And lol at the idea that workers will riot over being asked to spend some amount of time in an office. I personally don't see much benefit to being physically present in the office myself, so this isn't me advocating for any corporate strategy, but I have to suspect you don't have a clue about corporate culture.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Why do you think Rabo and Zurich are going to be the companies that define the direction here, and not the multitude of significantly larger companies that have announced a blended offering?

Are you sure this is not confirmation bias on your part? Try to find a company that offers remote work, google it, find a few, present this as proof that remote work is the future and that blended has failed.

Because we're only 11 months into this mass experiment. Companies have been and will be experimenting with different methods going forward and will very quickly realise that blended working is the one experiment to throw away first. Their employees will be already set up and used to WFH. Mixing and matching just won't work in the real world IMO.

Blended working makes absolutely, zero, zilch etc. sense and I'm sure the larger companies will realise this just as quickly too once (if) they try to implement it IMO

And let's be honest, for the past 20 years in offices, most communication is already done by email etc. even if people are sitting right next to each other. Zoom has just made the face-to-face element completely irrelevant in most cases.

JimmyVik

JohnnyChimpo wrote: »

Of all your let's say "niche" opinions, this is the most mystifying so far. It's extremely easy to understand why employers would see utility in having employees to come into office sometimes - for all-hands meetings, training sessions, knowledge sharings, big project milestones, etc.

And lol at the idea that workers will riot over being asked to spend some amount of time in an office. I personally don't see much benefit to being physically present in the office myself, so this isn't me advocating for any corporate strategy, but I have to suspect you don't have a clue about corporate culture.

Personally im sick of working at home.
Id rather be in the office.
But when im in the office i might rather be at home
So maybe a couple of days a week in the office, if i was allowed to telework.
Im sure im not alone.
But at the end of the day you do what you are told as a worker bee.
Also I find it easier to work with my team face to face tbh.

jill_valentine

PropQueries wrote: »

What is the point in asking staff to come into the office 2 days a week when the employer is more than happy to allow them to WFH the other 3 days?

Makes absolutely no sense and the employees will start to show their frustration fairly quickly if blended working is implemented IMO

It is absolutely the model we're leaning towards, best of both worlds. Employees seem to prefer it to all of either. Breaks up the risk of repetition of WFH, and means the same people aren't getting lumped with all the unglamourous in-office tasks all the time.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Because we're only 11 months into this mass experiment. Companies have been and will be experimenting with different methods going forward and will very quickly realise that blended working is the one experiment to throw away first. Their employees will be already set up and used to WFH. Mixing and matching just won't work in the real world IMO.

Blended working makes absolutely, zero, zilch etc. sense and I'm sure the larger companies will realise this just as quickly too once (if) they try to implement it IMO

And let's be honest, for the past 20 years in offices, most communication is already done by email etc. even if people are sitting right next to each other. Zoom has just made the face-to-face element completely irrelevant in most cases.

Sorry PropQueries, this is utter rubbish. My guess is it makes zero sense to you because you cannot make it fit into the narrative you want to present.

Blended working will be very popular if it's offered. More people will opt for blended than opt for fully remote. I would not even be remotely surprised if more people opt for fully in the office than opt for fully remote.

Blended working is really just an extension of policies that many of these companies have had for years or even decades.

MacronvFrugals

Disagree with you here Props, blended is ideal for most people as it still allows the one or two days a week for team bonding.

In saying that thousands of people know they only need to be in the office one day a week i would imagine it would open up many extra avenues from a property point of view.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

If as expected a portion of savings are used to buy homes. This will result in further outgoings by the state in the form of ftb grants and shared ownership schemes.

The most likely outlet for spending is foreign holidays as people use their childcare savings to take the family on a much needed break.

People in the rental market are effectively sterilised by the state due to its high cost so unfortunately very few will be partaking in this spending on any sector, nevermind housing




Would be interesting to know what the cost would be if you took out DCC from the calculation.
The cost (210k for a house) seems impressive.

People say we can't scale up.
What if we pooled the people in the best performing councils into one body and provide them with the funding resources to tackle supply in the worst hit areas




We know that 50% of households cannot afford to buy at current prices. A far greater percentage of these will be renting
A person in a good position will apply to the bank that offers them the best deal and are unlikely to apply to other banks once they have obtained the best deal.

A person struggling will apply to multiple banks to see which, if any, will give them the amount they require to purchase.

Hopefully the family will stay in an Airbnb when on holidays as it is more cost effective. Although some people seem to think Airbnb is the devil incarnate.
How does someone know they have gotten the best mortgage deal if they don’t shop around?

EireinOZ

Hi , just wondering has anybody else been in the same position as us and what was the outcome ? We have recently paid a booking deposit on a house , all going very well on both sides until we found out the vendors own NPPR tax amounting to over 7000. The vendors brought the house in 2005 , live their till 2010 and moved aboard and rented out the house. Now they are saying they have no money to pay off the tax and our solicitor has told us they are applying for an exemption. I'm wondering his anybody else come across this issue?

EireinOZ

Hi , just wondering has anybody else been in the same position as us and what was the outcome ? We have recently paid a booking deposit on a house , all going very well on both sides until we found out the vendors own NPPR tax amounting to over 7000. The vendors brought the house in 2005 , live their till 2010 and moved aboard and rented out the house. Now they are saying they have no money to pay off the tax and our solicitor has told us they are applying for an exemption. I'm wondering his anybody else come across this issue?

donnaille

awec wrote: »

Sorry PropQueries, this is utter rubbish. My guess is it makes zero sense to you because you cannot make it fit into the narrative you want to present.

Blended working will be very popular if it's offered. More people will opt for blended than opt for fully remote. I would not even be remotely surprised if more people opt for fully in the office than opt for fully remote.

Blended working is really just an extension of policies that many of these companies have had for years or even decades.

Agree, it's far far too early to say how a blended approach will pan put for companies, and employees too. Some will prosper, others perhaps not so much.

I've worked in London for several years at large financial services firms which already offered a blended approach, to some extent - with 2 days wfh being possible. We may see some people push to 3 days and even 4, or alternating weeks - but the office is likely to continue as before for a large cohort.