2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

so which is it, you arent as smart as i think you are or im not as smart as i think i am,

make up your mind

Hard to make up my mind without understanding the point you are trying to make that is so obvious.

Out of interest, why did you edit your post from "i dont think i need to spell it out?" to ""the point i'm making is obvious."

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Hard to make up my mind without understanding the point you are trying to make that is so obvious.

Out of interest, why did you edit your post from "i dont think i need to spell it out?" to ""the point i'm making is obvious."

i felt it flowed a little better :pac:

let me know when you decide, ill wait with bated breath

HansKroenke

I think the Mahklouf warning is not something to worry about in the next two years. We will have explosive economic growth for a few years post-pandemic including inflation which will then need to be tempered. There is so much State and Central Bank interference in the market, I nearly think it is protected from a crash as a result unless they somehow, suddenly pulled out (which is of course not likely). As an individual I'm just paying down as much of my debt (i.e. car loan) as I can and saving to buy while the sun shines, waiting for a time when the gap between buyers and sellers is not so imbalanced as it has been the past year (meaning an 18 month minimum wait time from now, but targeting 24 months as a more realistic timeline targeting as long a fixed term rate as we can).

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

i felt it flowed a little better :pac:

let me know when you decide, ill wait with bated breath

Sure, I can let know when you explain the obvious point you were making, I'll wait with bated breath :rolleyes:

SmokyMo

Cyrus wrote: »

have you seen property prices in singapore? presume you are being faecitious

Huh? I don't think you understand what you are talking about then. My suggestion to you would be to look into how the housing market works there.

cnocbui

SmokyMo wrote: »

Huh? I don't think you understand what you are talking about then. My suggestion to you would be to look into how the housing market works there.

Go on, how does it work?

Singapore home prices rose the most in more than two years in the final quarter of 2020, as speculation mounts that the government may impose measures to cool the market.

Property values increased 2.1% in the three months ended Dec 31, Urban Redevelopment Authority figures showed Jan 22. That is unchanged from the preliminary estimate earlier this month and the biggest gain since the second quarter of 2018, when prices climbed 3.4%.

A third consecutive quarter of price gains underscores resilience of the Singapore property market during the city’s worst recession. Home sales have also increased, climbing the most in six months in December.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/property/singapore-home-prices-rise-amid-property-curbs-speculation

SmokyMo

HansKroenke wrote: »

I think the Mahklouf warning is not something to worry about in the next two years. We will have explosive economic growth for a few years post-pandemic including inflation which will then need to be tempered. There is so much State and Central Bank interference in the market, I nearly think it is protected from a crash as a result unless they somehow, suddenly pulled out (which is of course not likely). As an individual I'm just paying down as much of my debt (i.e. car loan) as I can and saving to buy while the sun shines, waiting for a time when the gap between buyers and sellers is not so imbalanced as it has been the past year (meaning an 18 month minimum wait time from now, but targeting 24 months as a more realistic timeline targeting as long a fixed term rate as we can).

Argument can be made that inflation is already rampant. From housing, financial markets, commodities, services and recently stretching to food as well.

Cyrus

SmokyMo wrote: »

Huh? I don't think you understand what you are talking about then. My suggestion to you would be to look into how the housing market works there.

explain it to me then, i understand there is some state support mechanics, but im not sure exactly how it works as we have an office over there and a lot of people in their 30s still live with their parents so its not helping them.

also according to this its one of the most expensive cities in the world, property prices v income.

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp

Just read about it, its interesting:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_housing_in_Singapore

but hasnt dont anything to curb high prices for those that dont qualify it seems. also singapores approach to law and order lends it self a lot better to this kind of set up than here, they have ethnicity quotas etc and there are proper penalties for anti social behaviour.

SmokyMo

cnocbui wrote: »

Go on, how does it work?

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/property/singapore-home-prices-rise-amid-property-curbs-speculation

Sorry, what point are you making here? Just random extract on price increase for last 3 month.

SmokyMo

Cyrus wrote: »

explain it to me then, i understand there is some state support mechanics, but im not sure exactly how it works as we have an office over there and a lot of people in their 30s still live with their parents so its not helping them.

also according to this its one of the most expensive cities in the world, property prices v income.

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp

I am not sure about your anecdotal evidence of office workers unless they are cheap labour migrants but 97.9% home ownership among its population.


Original question was which country doesnt treat house assets as a speculative assets, I suggested Singapore.

HansKroenke

SmokyMo wrote: »

Argument can be made that inflation is already rampant. From housing, financial markets, commodities, services and recently stretching to food as well.

Yes, I agree. The CPI being used as a barometer is a scam by governments to not have to spend as much money. But I think the governments and central banks cannot do anything until we are out of the covid woods.

Cyrus

SmokyMo wrote: »

I am not sure about your anecdotal evidence of office workers unless they are cheap labour migrants but 97.9% home ownership among its population.


Original question was which country doesnt treat house assets as a speculative assets, I suggested Singapore.

they are singaporean nationals and educated, perhaps they earn too much to avail of the state schemes because outside of that, as you will concede, property is very expensive. Now that i think of it a lot of the people im thinking of are single, and from a brief look at wiki it appears that the housing is for family units so maybe that explains it.

So someone in singapore is treating housing as speculative assets but as a nation they dont.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

Listened to David McWilliams and some interesting perspectives in it alright. Good for people to listen to.

Glad you got some value from it

Just out of interest, I know I'm not a skilled communicator, but what would you see as different from his main points and the points I raise here

I've reffered to the property as a bit of an elaborate pyramid scheme, he uses the greater fool theory same principle

I say Government are a major part of the problem. He states every measure introduced by the Government has been inflationary and developer focused

And of course the solution pretty much identical.

Can you tell me the difference between interesting and conspiracy theroy

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

Glad you got some value from it

Just out of interest, I know I'm not a skilled communicator, but what would you see as different from his main points and the points I raise here

I've reffered to the property as a bit of an elaborate pyramid scheme, he uses the greater fool theory same principle

I say Government are a major part of the problem. He states every measure introduced by the Government has been inflationary and developer focused

And of course the solution pretty much identical.

Can you tell me the difference between interesting and conspiracy theroy

as i said McWilliams lives in a 7 figure house on the southside, you need to take that into perspective when listen to him.

not that i have any issue with that at all, but what he peddles and what he lives are two different things .

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

as i said McWilliams lives in a 7 figure house on the southside, you need to take that into perspective when listen to him.

not that i have any issue with that at all, but what he peddles and what he lives are two different things .

Have you listened to the podcast?

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Have you listened to the podcast?

not that particular one, ive read most of his books and read a lot of his articles, have met him more than once aswell.

timmyntc

Cyrus wrote: »

as i said McWilliams lives in a 7 figure house on the southside, you need to take that into perspective when listen to him.

not that i have any issue with that at all, but what he peddles and what he lives are two different things .

If someone has nothing and speaks out - they are jealous or begrudging
If someone has wealth and speaks out - they are a liar or cant be trusted because of their wealth

Genuine question - what would a person have to do for you to take them seriously?

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

not that particular one, ive read most of his books and read a lot of his articles, have met him more than once aswell.

If you had listened to that podcast you might have a better understanding why "McWilliams lives in a 7 figure house on the southside, you need to take that into perspective when listen to him" is a vacuous comment.

hometruths

timmyntc wrote: »

If someone has nothing and speaks out - they are jealous or begrudging
If someone has wealth and speaks out - they are a liar or cant be trusted because of their wealth

Genuine question - what would a person have to do for you to take them seriously?

Agree with him.

Cyrus

timmyntc wrote: »

If someone has nothing and speaks out - they are jealous or begrudging
If someone has wealth and speaks out - they are a liar or cant be trusted because of their wealth

Genuine question - what would a person have to do for you to take them seriously?

who did i brand jealour or a liar?

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

If you had listened to that podcast you might have a better understanding why "McWilliams lives in a 7 figure house on the southside, you need to take that into perspective when listen to him" is a vacuous comment.

ill get to it at some stage, but i dont agree that its a vacuous comment, one should always have the background information.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Agree with him.

yes because the world is ending gang have a habit of posting all sorts of articles that contradict what they are peddling. :rolleyes:

timmyntc

Cyrus wrote: »

who did i brand jealour or a liar?

It's not your words, but a generic statement that sums up that train of thought.

McWilliams arguments are not to be fully trusted because of his own personal wealth.

His personal circumstances should have nothing to do with it - if you dont agree with what he says then kindly explain to the rest of us why you dont agree. A vague reference to McWilliams' wealth is a pathetic attempt to discredit a good argument.

Cyrus

timmyntc wrote: »

It's not your words, but a generic statement that sums up that train of thought.

McWilliams arguments are not to be fully trusted because of his own personal wealth.

His personal circumstances should have nothing to do with it - if you dont agree with what he says then kindly explain to the rest of us why you dont agree. A vague reference to McWilliams' wealth is a pathetic attempt to discredit a good argument.

you think someones personal circumstances are irrelevant when taking their opinions into account? fair enough, i would tend to disagree.

as i have said i have yet to listen to the podcast, so havent tried to discredit anything, i was just providing some context.

for example if he is espousing the greater fool theory as part of his thesis its interesting that he himself has bought a house in the past 3-4 years at the 1m + end of the market.

timmyntc

Cyrus wrote: »

you think someones personal circumstances are irrelevant when taking their opinions into account? fair enough, i would tend to disagree.

as i have said i have yet to listen to the podcast, so havent tried to discredit anything, i was just providing some context.

for example if he is espousing the greater fool theory as part of his thesis its interesting that he himself has bought a house in the past 3-4 years at the 1m + end of the market.

Nobody should blindly accept what he says simply because *he* says it - arguments should be taken on their merits alone. In that case, who he is, is irrelevant.

MacronvFrugals

timmyntc wrote: »

If someone has nothing and speaks out - they are jealous or begrudging
If someone has wealth and speaks out - they are a liar or cant be trusted because of their wealth

Genuine question - what would a person have to do for you to take them seriously?

Exactly my thinking!

LillySV

Cyrus wrote: »

you think someones personal circumstances are irrelevant when taking their opinions into account? fair enough, i would tend to disagree.

as i have said i have yet to listen to the podcast, so havent tried to discredit anything, i was just providing some context.

for example if he is espousing the greater fool theory as part of his thesis its interesting that he himself has bought a house in the past 3-4 years at the 1m + end of the market.

Ok I’m only starting this thread now so don’t know the jest of it yet, but I will say that McWilliams was bang on predicting the last house crisis when others said he was talking nonsense

In regard to him buying that house... he’s wealthy and might be one of those rare houses/areas that rarely come to market so regardless of cost, if he wanted it he had to go for it

Which is same for anyone ... if u find ideal dream house now and can afford it, go for it ...

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Cracking spot. Airbnbs and holiday homes have their place for sure - it's just not in D2.

Spent the last 2 summer holidays in that general area. Really like it. Might consider a holiday home in that part of Kerry but slightly concerned about accessibility for weekends. It’s a long way to go vs Wexford etc.

Cyrus

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Exactly my thinking!

good to know

cnocbui

Hubertj wrote: »

Spent the last 2 summer holidays in that general area. Really like it. Might consider a holiday home in that part of Kerry but slightly concerned about accessibility for weekends. It’s a long way to go vs Wexford etc.

Can I interest you in a slightly used house in Connemara? Some rennovation required.

Hubertj

cnocbui wrote: »

Can I interest you in a slightly used house in Connemara? Some rennovation required.

Thanks but spent a lot of time in Connemara as a kid. Kerry is the only place I’ll consider now!

Cyrus

im listening to this pod cast, figure thats fair for a 4 bedroom house is 270k. There are plenty of 4 bedrooms houses available in ireland for that kind of money.

so the question is to those of you that are so taken with this podcast, do you believe that houses everywhere in ireland should be the same price?

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

im listening to this pod cast, figure thats fair for a 4 bedroom house is 270k. There are plenty of 4 bedrooms houses available in ireland for that kind of money.

so the question is to those of you that are so taken with this podcast, do you believe that houses everywhere in ireland should be the same price?

There’s that Dunning Kruger effect in action again.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

There’s that Dunning Kruger effect in action again.

just asking the question no need for the insults, you arent better than that but you can try. some of your pals will probably like that for you again.

for anyone not as clever as schmittel the dunning kruger her refers to is:

Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence

which is quite the insult, but ill get over it.

ill ask again, do you believe the state should be providing 4 bedroom family homes in ballsbridge for 270k or less in these communes or collectives?

cnocbui

Hubertj wrote: »

Thanks but spent a lot of time in Connemara as a kid. Kerry is the only place I’ll consider now!

Are you sure? I'll throw in a couple of lakes for free.

fliball123

Cyrus wrote: »

just asking the question no need for the insults, you arent better than that but you can try. some of your pals will probably like that for you again.

for anyone not as clever as schmittel the dunning kruger her refers to is:

Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence

which is quite the insult, but ill get over it.

ill ask again, do you believe the state should be providing 4 bedroom family homes in ballsbridge for 270k or less in these communes or collectives?

Of course they shouldn't, I have gone over on here desirable places will always acquire a premium as is the case all over the planet. Some on here seem to think we should all be able to afford a mansion in Dalkey with a view over looking the sea. I call that the Walter Mitty Effect when your living in a dreamland

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

Of course they shouldn't, I have gone over on here desirable places will always acquire a premium as is the case all over the planet. Some on here seem to think we should all be able to afford a mansion in Dalkey with a view over looking the sea. I call that the Walter Mitty Effect when your living in a dreamland

Of course agree with above but I do think the primary reason younger people are disillusioned an feel house prices need to fall in price is they compare themselves to what their equivalent in the prior generation could have done. This is why McWilliams etc. views resonate with so many.

I know (and am related to) so many people in their 50s/60s who had incredibly average careers with limited educations, never earning above today's equivalent of €150k living in €2m+ houses in Dalkey. The reality is were they the exact same person, exact same career a few decades later they'd be potentially looking for social housing. It's that dramatic mismatch in the inflation of property prices vs wages that drives the undercurrent of discontent.

I'm incredibly fortunate to be in a very top percentile of earners but it drives me up the wall hearing my parents/aunts/uncles talk in a sympathetic (but really condescending) tone about cousin x who's "35 and still can't afford his/her own home" as if it's some sort of failing on their behalf. Then often use my position as proof that "it's still possible today, nothing wrong with house prices". The reality is cousin X is doing absolutely fine and their career is on a par with their parents before them, but "average earnings" don't really get you a whole lot anymore.

I might not fit the description of young locked out buyer, but I can clearly see their plight and do think you need to be a little bit blinkered to not do so.

It's scares the life out of me, but I truly think it's the mindset/denial above that's going to lead to fairly radical political reform in the not too distant future. Prices falls will come with that overhaul I'm sure, unfortunately so will after tax incomes...(as a side note to anyone disillusioned as I have described above feeling locked out, the reality is our "extreme left" parties are actually bizarrely anti-young people in many ways and will staunchly defend the "poor old person" in their €4m house in Colimore Road which they can barely heat because "The home isn't an asset (LOL)"

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

Of course agree with above but I do think the primary reason younger people are disillusioned an feel house prices need to fall in price is they compare themselves to what their equivalent in the prior generation could have done. This is why McWilliams etc. views resonate with so many.

I know (and am related to) so many people in their 50s/60s who had incredibly average careers with limited educations, never earning above today's equivalent of €150k living in €2m+ houses in Dalkey. The reality is were they the exact same person, exact same career a few decades later they'd be potentially looking for social housing. It's that dramatic mismatch in the inflation of property prices vs wages that drives the undercurrent of discontent.

I'm incredibly fortunate to be in a very top percentile of earners but it drives me up the wall hearing my parents/aunts/uncles talk in a sympathetic (but really condescending) tone about cousin x who's "35 and still can't afford his/her own home" as if it's some sort of failing on their behalf. Then often use my position as proof that "it's still possible today, nothing wrong with house prices". The reality is cousin X is doing absolutely fine and their career is on a par with their parents before them, but "average earnings" don't really get you a whole lot anymore.

I might not fit the description of young locked out buyer, but I can clearly see their plight and do think you need to be a little bit blinkered to not do so.

It's scares the life out of me, but I truly think it's the mindset/denial above that's going to lead to fairly radical political reform in the not too distant future. Prices falls will come with that overhaul I'm sure, unfortunately so will after tax incomes...(as a side note to anyone disillusioned as I have described above feeling locked out, the reality is our "extreme left" parties are actually bizarrely anti-young people in many ways and will staunchly defend the "poor old person" in their €4m house in Colimore Road which they can barely heat because "The home isn't an asset (LOL)"

good post and there is a lot of sense in what you are posting. its easy to normalise a high salary if you are in an industry where others are earning the same so good on you for retaining perspective.

i disagree with you that radical reform will come though, in the same way a teacher and a nurse could have bought a house in blackrock or dalkey 30 years ago, young couples today can too (maybe one an accountant and another in tech) and as long as that persists so will prices. Its not a story common to Dublin either, other european capitals have the same issue.

HansKroenke

DataDude wrote: »

Of course agree with above but I do think the primary reason younger people are disillusioned an feel house prices need to fall in price is they compare themselves to what their equivalent in the prior generation could have done. This is why McWilliams etc. views resonate with so many.

I know (and am related to) so many people in their 50s/60s who had incredibly average careers with limited educations, never earning above today's equivalent of €150k living in €2m+ houses in Dalkey. The reality is were they the exact same person, exact same career a few decades later they'd be potentially looking for social housing. It's that dramatic mismatch in the inflation of property prices vs wages that drives the undercurrent of discontent.

I'm incredibly fortunate to be in a very top percentile of earners but it drives me up the wall hearing my parents/aunts/uncles talk in a sympathetic (but really condescending) tone about cousin x who's "35 and still can't afford his/her own home" as if it's some sort of failing on their behalf. Then often use my position as proof that "it's still possible today, nothing wrong with house prices". The reality is cousin X is doing absolutely fine and their career is on a par with their parents before them, but "average earnings" don't really get you a whole lot anymore.

I might not fit the description of young locked out buyer, but I can clearly see their plight and do think you need to be a little bit blinkered to not do so.

It's scares the life out of me, but I truly think it's the mindset/denial above that's going to lead to fairly radical political reform in the not too distant future. Prices falls will come with that overhaul I'm sure, unfortunately so will after tax incomes...(as a side note to anyone disillusioned as I have described above feeling locked out, the reality is our "extreme left" parties are actually bizarrely anti-young people in many ways and will staunchly defend the "poor old person" in their €4m house in Colimore Road which they can barely heat because "The home isn't an asset (LOL)"

The big question will be how those €1m+ houses shift in the next 5/10/15 years when those under the age of 40, barely able to get a place worth 600k, are looking to upgrade and the houses of those in their 50s/60s now are sold. Even with the equity of their FTB property, they will not be able to get a mortgage for these houses. For me, the longer term trend is a fairly significant reduction in house prices at the premium price range, purely due to affordability and the obliteration of the number of homeowners among the next generation, lost to the Great Recession, that would typically upgrade to these types of houses.

Cyrus

HansKroenke wrote: »

The big question will be how those €1m+ houses shift in the next 5/10/15 years when those under the age of 40, barely able to get a place worth 600k, are looking to upgrade and the houses of those in their 50s/60s now are sold. Even with the equity of their FTB property, they will not be able to get a mortgage for these houses. For me, the longer term trend is a fairly significant reduction in house prices at the premium price range, purely due to affordability and the obliteration of the number of homeowners among the next generation, lost to the Great Recession, that would typically upgrade to these types of houses.

In the way there are people now who can buy houses at those prices there will be people in 10-15 years

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

good post and there is a lot of sense in what you are posting. its easy to normalise a high salary if you are in an industry where others are earning the same so good on you for retaining perspective.

i disagree with you that radical reform will come though, in the same way a teacher and a nurse could have bought a house in blackrock or dalkey 30 years ago, young couples today can too (maybe one an accountant and another in tech) and as long as that persists so will prices. Its not a story common to Dublin either, other european capitals have the same issue.

Maybe you’re correct (I hope you are on the political bit!) but when I look at what two 35 year old teachers with kids working in a school in South Dublin can afford to purchase, it makes me a little uneasy. Agreed it is an issue around Europe, but it doesn’t make it desirable and it certainly offers scant consolation to said teachers!

DataDude

HansKroenke wrote: »

The big question will be how those €1m+ houses shift in the next 5/10/15 years when those under the age of 40, barely able to get a place worth 600k, are looking to upgrade and the houses of those in their 50s/60s now are sold. Even with the equity of their FTB property, they will not be able to get a mortgage for these houses. For me, the longer term trend is a fairly significant reduction in house prices at the premium price range, purely due to affordability and the obliteration of the number of homeowners among the next generation, lost to the Great Recession, that would typically upgrade to these types of houses.

Have thought about this an incredible amount. The only obvious answer I have is inheritance - and the Irish attitude to inheritance is the only thing that frustrates me more than housing (I say this as someone who will inherit a significant sum of money before I’m called a begrudger). If asset/house price inflation continues to outstrip wages in the long term it may just become that social class gets increasingly locked in and not something you can work your way between.
But that’s a discussion too political for this forum!

Hubertj

cnocbui wrote: »

Are you sure? I'll throw in a couple of lakes for free.

Is there any fish in the lake?

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

Maybe you’re correct (I hope you are on the political bit!) but when I look at what two 35 year old teachers with kids working in a school in South Dublin can afford to purchase, it makes me a little uneasy. Agreed it is an issue around Europe, but it doesn’t make it desirable and it certainly offers scant consolation to said teachers!

It’ll be an interesting dynamic in the future , parents in Dublin won’t be encouraging their kids into teaching I wouldn’t have thought , where do we go then.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Of course agree with above but I do think the primary reason younger people are disillusioned an feel house prices need to fall in price is they compare themselves to what their equivalent in the prior generation could have done. This is why McWilliams etc. views resonate with so many.

I know (and am related to) so many people in their 50s/60s who had incredibly average careers with limited educations, never earning above today's equivalent of €150k living in €2m+ houses in Dalkey. The reality is were they the exact same person, exact same career a few decades later they'd be potentially looking for social housing. It's that dramatic mismatch in the inflation of property prices vs wages that drives the undercurrent of discontent.

I'm incredibly fortunate to be in a very top percentile of earners but it drives me up the wall hearing my parents/aunts/uncles talk in a sympathetic (but really condescending) tone about cousin x who's "35 and still can't afford his/her own home" as if it's some sort of failing on their behalf. Then often use my position as proof that "it's still possible today, nothing wrong with house prices". The reality is cousin X is doing absolutely fine and their career is on a par with their parents before them, but "average earnings" don't really get you a whole lot anymore.

I might not fit the description of young locked out buyer, but I can clearly see their plight and do think you need to be a little bit blinkered to not do so.

It's scares the life out of me, but I truly think it's the mindset/denial above that's going to lead to fairly radical political reform in the not too distant future. Prices falls will come with that overhaul I'm sure, unfortunately so will after tax incomes...(as a side note to anyone disillusioned as I have described above feeling locked out, the reality is our "extreme left" parties are actually bizarrely anti-young people in many ways and will staunchly defend the "poor old person" in their €4m house in Colimore Road which they can barely heat because "The home isn't an asset (LOL)"

Great post, I'm a little older than you but can relate to the parents/aunts/uncles comments. Yes they had high interest rates and no smashed avocado but whatever way you cut it in a property ladder context, they had it easier than today's FTB.

I'm in my mid 40s and I think myself and a decent cohort group/peers got phenomenally lucky as well.

I know so many people who more through luck than judgment avoided the buying in the last boom, they had cheap rents, and bought when they were ready in the years 2010-2015. Most managed to time it spectacularly well in 2012/3, picking up period houses in prime D4, D6, SCD.

Like my parents generation, very few of them pause to think how lucky they were or are overly concerned about govt housing policy etc.

I also know people who bought 2016 onwards and I get the sense that they think about it a lot, and are cheering things like shared equity schemes to the rafters. They don't have the buffer that the 2012/3 crowd have, and they see it could go either way from here.

The few people I know in the FTB bracket are in utter despair and I truly feel sorry for them.

cnocbui

One of the biggest problems is the mis-match between expectations and income.

When I bought my first house, It was very cheap, and cheap for a reason. I was prepared to put up with it's shortcomings for affordability, but judging by people's reactions to my earlier posts on the topic, no one on who posts regularly on this thread would have been prepared to put up with it.

On the currently buying thread, I have lost count of the number of people who complain about the number of properties requiring renovation and the lack of turn-keys in their price range.

I need to send out a search party to find my sympathy for FTBs who want a nice new home that's up to the second in modernity and features, but complain of being unable to afford one.

This belief in a golden past where home affordability was easy is a mystery to me.

I sure couldn't afford such a thing when I bought my first home. Even my third one didn't qualify, either.

cnocbui

Hubertj wrote: »

Is there any fish in the lake?

'Lakes' - yes, small brown trout.

Hubertj

cnocbui wrote: »

'Lakes' - yes, small brown trout.

Nice work to have that on your property. I used to go fishing quite a lot, find it very relaxing.

decreds

It's probably worth noting that mass immigration was a big factor in price rises over the past few years. With mass immigration now halted for at least the next 3 years and coupled with supply coming on board + economic fallout, we will see modest drops by around 2023.


I don't predict it to be a huge crash so it's probably not worth waiting around for if you're currently paying high rent. Needless to say, if it's your forever home and currently paying rent but in a position to buy you might as well go for it now instead of waiting for 10-20% drops in 3 years or so.

jill_valentine

cnocbui wrote: »

One of the biggest problems is the mis-match between expectations and income.

When I bought my first house, It was very cheap, and cheap for a reason. I was prepared to put up with it's shortcomings for affordability, but judging by people's reactions to my earlier posts on the topic, no one on who posts regularly on this thread would have been prepared to put up with it.

Banks will now refuse you a mortgage for a property they decide you do not have the means to do up to standard in short order because your house is their collateral. If you're already stretching for the mortgage in the first place, which you will be, buying a fixer upper is literally not an option. They will take a look at it, and you, and decline. It's become quite a strict thing after the recession, because the issue of houses as collateral became suddenly very topical.

It's why ads for mortgages used to show trusty have-a-go handymen doing plumbing or woodwork, and now the plucky young couple is only ever painting.

I did some maths on the subject of house prices in Dublin county in October of last year, so when prices were actually not too far off what we consider normal -

125k is roughly the salary capped mortgage limit in the ballpark of what we've established are the averagish salaries in Dublin.

As of this moment, Daft has a grand total of 7 properties in this bracket. 5 are green field sites. 1 is an apartment in Balbriggan I'm pretty sure is sold this months, and 1 is an auction for an apartment the roof peeled off during a mild storm a few years ago.

So, nothing. There is literally nothing the average worker can buy to live in, in the entire county.

Now lets imagine our worker has eaten nothing for five years and sat indoors with the lights off until they managed to save the €37500 - more than a year of their salary - to bring his buying power all the way to the next bracket of 150k.

Excluding sites, he has 20 properties available - but not so fast.

At least 7 of these are Bidx1 style Auctions, which he can't buy. Two more are covered above. Of the eleven remaining, I know myself at least two are already sold and aren't marked off. Of the nine remaining, one is listed twice and is a shell, one of the others would need major work. So... 6.

There are currently 6 properties available in the county of Dublin to somebody on the average wage with nearly 40 grand in their pocket, assuming nobody bids one penny over asking.

The properties did not exist to be bought within the range of the average earner.

I would propose then that the mismatch is in the kinds of properties we were building and what the majority actually need and can afford.