2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Cyrus

jill_valentine wrote: »

Banks will now refuse you a mortgage for a property they decide you do not have the means to do up to standard in short order because your house is their collateral. If you're already stretching for the mortgage in the first place, which you will be, buying a fixer upper is literally not an option. They will take a look at it, and you, and decline. It's become quite a strict thing after the recession, because the issue of houses as collateral became suddenly very topical.

It's why ads for mortgages used to show trusty have-a-go handymen doing plumbing or woodwork, and now the plucky young couple is only ever painting.

I did some maths on the subject of house prices in Dublin county in October of last year, so when prices were actually not too far off what we consider normal -



The properties did not exist to be bought within the range of the average earner.

I would propose then that the mismatch is in the kinds of properties we were building and what the majority actually need and can afford.

Isn’t the annual average full time salary 49k

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/average-full-time-salary-in-republic-nearly-49-000-1.4289348%3fmode=amp

And if that’s the country average the Dublin average is higher than that I’m sure.

Your figures seem to be off a much lower salary level.

MacronvFrugals

Cyrus wrote: »

Isn’t the annual average full time salary 49k

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/average-full-time-salary-in-republic-nearly-49-000-1.4289348%3fmode=amp

And if that’s the country average the Dublin average is higher than that I’m sure.

Your figures seem to be off a much lower salary level.

Using the median 35k is correct

Median household gross income is 47k

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-fact-check-is-the-average-income-really-47-000-1.4155272

Cyrus

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Using the median 35k is correct

Median household gross income is 47k

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-fact-check-is-the-average-income-really-47-000-1.4155272

Yes I’d tend to agree but the poster said average.

Also do we know the median in Dublin?

jill_valentine

Cyrus wrote: »

Yes I’d tend to agree but the poster said average.

Also do we know the median in Dublin?

It's a little awkward to find the Dublin median because the that much more generous "average" is promoted more often by Leo and friends

We can roughwork it though. Per CSO, weekly median for Dublin as of 2018 was €645.78

https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2019pressreleases/pressstatement-earningsanalysisusingadministrativedatasources2018/


646 x 52 = €33,592.

Your 3.5 salary cap gives you €117,572, so your deposit has to be a bit above ten grand. Roughly then, we're floating around roughly the 130k mark.

So, a little better than my previous roughwork, but not much, and as the Median, half of the workforce is actually below that.

Geuze

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Using the median 35k is correct

Median household gross income is 47k

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-fact-check-is-the-average-income-really-47-000-1.4155272

Median household incomes 2019

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-silc/surveyonincomeandlivingconditionssilc2019/income/

Gross, this means including welfare payments = 51,217
Disposable, after tax = 43,552

Geuze

Cyrus wrote: »

Yes I’d tend to agree but the poster said average.

Also do we know the median in Dublin?

The earnings of mortgage borrowers is published, if you want to check them.

The estate agents are having a field day.

€105k over asking
https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-47-the-priory-grange-road-rathfarnham-dublin-14/2877728?fbclid=IwAR30CJi2WCCebb4YtQuu8pJGhtIN2QgBRETXmSNuzRJK8MQGFXsZXh3jVRc

Cyrus

Presume this has been posted already , props tends to post anything property related in any of the main newspapers

In case he missed it ,

Prices and transaction numbers increasing , in face dec 20 had more sales than dec 19 despite everything.


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-defy-predictions-to-rise-2-2-in-2020-1.4483071

HansKroenke

Cyrus wrote: »

Presume this has been posted already , props tends to post anything property related in any of the main newspapers

In case he missed it ,

Prices and transaction numbers increasing , in face dec 20 had more sales than dec 19 despite everything.


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-defy-predictions-to-rise-2-2-in-2020-1.4483071

I love the strawman in the article;

At the outset of the pandemic, with unemployment spiralling, many had predicted 2020 would see a major fall in house prices.

Maybe it is just me but I have not seen any article in the IT or Indo with "many" predicting "2020 would see a major fall in house prices". In fact, quite the opposite; my reading of property articles in these publications would have me convinced that property is a safe haven asset, immune from wider economic turmoil! It's nearly like "just tell yourself something enough times until you believe it".

combat14

Cyrus wrote: »

Presume this has been posted already , props tends to post anything property related in any of the main newspapers

In case he missed it ,

Prices and transaction numbers increasing , in face dec 20 had more sales than dec 19 despite everything.


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-defy-predictions-to-rise-2-2-in-2020-1.4483071

one swallow does not make a summer - one month comparison doesnt either

Sierra Oscar

HansKroenke wrote: »

I love the strawman in the article;



Maybe it is just me but I have not seen any article in the IT or Indo with "many" predicting "2020 would see a major fall in house prices". In fact, quite the opposite; my reading of property articles in these publications would have me convinced that property is a safe haven asset, immune from wider economic turmoil! It's nearly like "just tell yourself something enough times until you believe it".

You're off the mark a bit there to be honest. Plenty of articles in both the Irish Times and Irish Independent at the start of Covid-19 predicted a major fall in property prices. Much discussion about it in general too in all walks of life, here included.

Irish Times - May 2020 - House prices to fall by 12 % over next 18 months, ESRI says

Irish Independent - House prices due to fall sharply in wake of pandemic

I'm actually struggling to find articles from either publication from the start of the pandemic onwards claiming house prices would increase. It seems to only have dawned on them from late 2020 that their predictions of a major slump were not playing out on the ground.

bilbot79

cisk wrote: »

The estate agents are having a field day.

€105k over asking
https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-47-the-priory-grange-road-rathfarnham-dublin-14/2877728?fbclid=IwAR30CJi2WCCebb4YtQuu8pJGhtIN2QgBRETXmSNuzRJK8MQGFXsZXh3jVRc

Yikes. Might rent for a year and wait out these crazy prices

thefridge2006

Cyrus wrote: »

the point i'm making is obvious.

this chap lol

thefridge2006

Cyrus wrote: »

after you :rolleyes:

Whoever smelt it dealt it....

Takes one to know one..................

thefridge2006

Cyrus wrote: »

so which is it, you arent as smart as i think you are or im not as smart as i think i am,

make up your mind

and if you want to question my intelligence just come out and do it rather than try to be snide like that.

You calling someone snide... lol that's hilarious

thefridge2006

Cyrus wrote: »

Presume this has been posted already , props tends to post anything property related in any of the main newspapers

In case he missed it ,

Prices and transaction numbers increasing , in face dec 20 had more sales than dec 19 despite everything.


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-defy-predictions-to-rise-2-2-in-2020-1.4483071

Who did you accuse of being snide again????

Cyrus

combat14 wrote: »

one swallow does not make a summer - one month comparison doesnt either

I would agree however if the trends had been in the opposite direction this would have gotten far more coverage on this thread given it was 13 hours old when I posted .

So I was being genuine when I said I presumed it had been posted already and I missed it.

Cyrus

HansKroenke wrote: »

I love the strawman in the article;



Maybe it is just me but I have not seen any article in the IT or Indo with "many" predicting "2020 would see a major fall in house prices". In fact, quite the opposite; my reading of property articles in these publications would have me convinced that property is a safe haven asset, immune from wider economic turmoil! It's nearly like "just tell yourself something enough times until you believe it".

As the other poster has already said that is patently untrue , at the outset of this the prevailing opinion was that we were looking at wide spread price decreases , as time went on and this didn’t materialise the tone changed.

HansKroenke

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

You're off the mark a bit there to be honest. Plenty of articles in both the Irish Times and Irish Independent at the start of Covid-19 predicted a major fall in property prices. Much discussion about it in general too in all walks of life, here included.

Irish Times - May 2020 - House prices to fall by 12 % over next 18 months, ESRI says

Irish Independent - House prices due to fall sharply in wake of pandemic

I'm actually struggling to find articles from either publication from the start of the pandemic onwards claiming house prices would increase. It seems to only have dawned on them from late 2020 that their predictions of a major slump were not playing out on the ground.

Firstly, both articles talk of the same report, which came from the ESRI. Secondly, I don't see anything in either article warning of significant falls in house prices in 2020. They are presenting a scenario where house prices fall in 2021. But even at that, they note that supply constraints might not even lead to them falling.

Again, just to reiterate the point which still stands that there is this paranoia among those talking up the housing market where they need to justify their positions by inventing fictitious enemies, in this case "many" opposing forces who talked the market down, when in fact they didn't have many saying that. My experience is also that pre-cocid, Brexit was being painted as the enemy for the slowdown in the market by market participants. It's the "fake it until you make it" approach.

Here are the 2020 Property Market threads where you can go through the pages to get links to media articles in 2020 relating to the Irish property market;

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2058041687
https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2058095305/1

I've pulled the following from between May and September and honestly have not found many predicting house prices falling in 2020;

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-price-growth-slows-in-may-as-transactions-plunge-1.4305091?mode=amp&mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fproperty-price-growth-slowed-in-may-as-transactions-plunged-1.4305091

KBC Bank Ireland chief economist Austin Hughes said the fall in transactions points to a problematic outlook.

“With property price register data suggesting an even sharper year-on-year drop in sales in June, this also forcefully suggests the major impact of the pandemic on the Irish property market in 2020 is likely to be seen primarily in the form of depressed activity levels rather than dramatically lower prices.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/expanded-help-to-buy-scheme-makes-little-sense-and-may-fuel-house-price-rises-1.4312728?mode=amp

For the short-term, it might make totting the sums easier for first-time homebuyers this year but only if developers don’t increase prices on new homes schemes to match. And the suspicion since since help-to-buy was first introduce din 2014 if that builders do just that.

https://thecurrency.news/articles/20965/

Short-run implications of Covid-19 triggered recession on the Irish property markets are hard to forecast. Data on Irish residential property prices through May 2020 show little impact of the pandemic on house price dynamics. In fact, national property prices have been virtually flat from the start of 4Q 2018 through 2Q 2020, whole Dublin residential property prices have shown a decline over the same period of time.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/bidding-wars-for-niche-homes-as-buyers-flood-the-market-following-covid-19-lockdown-39416426.html

Early indications from the nationwide Residential Property Price Barometer compiled by Institute of Professional Auctioneers and Valuers (IPAV), which is not due out until this September, indicate strong activity in the market.

Speaking to the Sunday Independent this weekend, the chief executive of IPAV, Pat Davitt, said: "We have compiled prices up until the end of June and I can tell you that prices have gone up for the last six months.

Actually, I had intended to go through the thread from May to September but only ended up doing July as it was right at the beginning of 2020 Part II and it took 90 pages, 45 minutes to get these! But I can tell you that I didn't see any other articles, except for ones just talking about CSO dáta published.

Cyrus

Is referring to what’s actually happening talking up the property market ?

Because despite the narrative on here I have not seen anyone talk up the market in any real way , the thread is dominated by people who are forecasting property price drops from 10 percent all the way to 75 percent in the near term .

I can’t recall anyone forecasting any material increases.

Cyrus

HansKroenke wrote: »

Firstly, both articles talk of the same report, which came from the ESRI. Secondly, I don't see anything in either article warning of significant falls in house prices in 2020. They are presenting a scenario where house prices fall in 2021. But even at that, they note that supply constraints might not even lead to them falling.

Again, just to reiterate the point which still stands that there is this paranoia among those talking up the housing market where they need to justify their positions by inventing fictitious enemies, in this case "many" opposing forces who talked the market down, when in fact they didn't have many saying that. My experience is also that pre-cocid, Brexit was being painted as the enemy for the slowdown in the market by market participants. It's the "fake it until you make it" approach.

Here are the 2020 Property Market threads where you can go through the pages to get links to media articles in 2020 relating to the Irish property market;

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2058041687
https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2058095305/1

I've pulled the following from between May and September and honestly have not found many predicting house prices falling in 2020;

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-price-growth-slows-in-may-as-transactions-plunge-1.4305091?mode=amp&mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fproperty-price-growth-slowed-in-may-as-transactions-plunged-1.4305091

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/expanded-help-to-buy-scheme-makes-little-sense-and-may-fuel-house-price-rises-1.4312728?mode=amp

https://thecurrency.news/articles/20965/


https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/bidding-wars-for-niche-homes-as-buyers-flood-the-market-following-covid-19-lockdown-39416426.html

Actually, I had intended to go through the thread from May to September but only ended up doing July as it was right at the beginning of 2020 Part II and it took 90 pages, 45 minutes to get these! But I can tell you that I didn't see any other articles, except for ones just talking about CSO dáta published.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/stock-market-moves-indicate-new-house-prices-could-fall-up-to-20-1.4210823%3fmode=amp

March 2020 Covid crisis could cause house prices to fall 20 percent.

HansKroenke

Cyrus wrote: »

Is referring to what’s actually happening talking up the property market ?

Because despite the narrative on here I have not seen anyone talk up the market in any real way , the thread is dominated by people who are forecasting property price drops from 10 percent all the way to 75 percent in the near term .

I can’t recall anyone forecasting any material increases.

My point was more of a response to the claims that "many" had talked down the market, certainly in the media anyway, rather than actually talking down the market myself.

And referring to CSO hard data is talking about what is happening, the articles I highlighted above included opinions on the state of the market.

hometruths

McWilliams reckons we need to build 55,000 houses a year

The natural increase in housing demands 18,000 units per year, migration another 12,000, while changing housing structure along with divorce and separation adds 15,000. Obsolescence adds another 10,000, giving a total figure of about 55,000 units per year – significantly higher that the government’s 25,000 estimate.

For all I agree with his podcast, I think 55k a year is nonsense. I think it's the highest estimate I have seen, has anybody else seen higher?

HansKroenke

No harm to be safe, given the projected population growth over the next 3 decades. 55,000 would be required just to meet the population growth by 2057. The level of forward planning is alas likely beyond the grasp of our combined political elite however.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/population-could-grow-to-6-7m-by-2051-says-cso-1.3537977

cnocbui

schmittel wrote: »

McWilliams reckons we need to build 55,000 houses a year

For all I agree with his podcast, I think 55k a year is nonsense. I think it's the highest estimate I have seen, has anybody else seen higher?

With 70% of adult children still living with their parents, what figure do you suggest? But don't worry, i very much doubt there are enough trades people in this country to achive anything like that rate.

combat14

cnocbui wrote: »

With 70% of adult children still living with their parents, what figure do you suggest? But don't worry, i very much doubt there are enough trades people in this country to achive anything like that rate.

i wouldnt worry either if house prices and rents keep rising post covid young people will be fleeing this country in droves again

cnocbui

jill_valentine wrote: »

Banks will now refuse you a mortgage for a property they decide you do not have the means to do up to standard in short order because your house is their collateral. If you're already stretching for the mortgage in the first place, which you will be, buying a fixer upper is literally not an option. They will take a look at it, and you, and decline. It's become quite a strict thing after the recession, because the issue of houses as collateral became suddenly very topical.

It's why ads for mortgages used to show trusty have-a-go handymen doing plumbing or woodwork, and now the plucky young couple is only ever painting.

I did some maths on the subject of house prices in Dublin county in October of last year, so when prices were actually not too far off what we consider normal -

The properties did not exist to be bought within the range of the average earner.

I would propose then that the mismatch is in the kinds of properties we were building and what the majority actually need and can afford.

A house that needs renovation, but is habitable, has no value that a bank will lend against?

My current house needed finishing, not just renovation. We got a loan for the purchase price and the finishing costs. We did have fairly good collateral, but the borrowed amount was still significant at the time.

I suppose those were the good old days before banks retreated into their tiny little tax payer funded shells.

A few months ago you can get an apartment in Limerick for around €70 K.

cnocbui

combat14 wrote: »

i wouldnt worry either if house prices and rents keep rising post covid young people will be fleeing this country in droves again

I'm not sure that will be as easy as in the past. Fortunately I shouldn't have a problem.

Cyrus

combat14 wrote: »

i wouldnt worry either if house prices and rents keep rising post covid young people will be fleeing this country in droves again

Mostly to Australia with their property market that puts ours in the shade

decreds

HansKroenke wrote: »

No harm to be safe, given the projected population growth over the next 3 decades. 55,000 would be required just to meet the population growth by 2057. The level of forward planning is alas likely beyond the grasp of our combined political elite however.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/population-could-grow-to-6-7m-by-2051-says-cso-1.3537977

Projected population growth is severely over estimated (at least for this decade) for multiple reasons:


* We won't have mass immigration for years
* Less people are dating/meeting new people
* People are fearful, fearful people tend to put off reproducing
* There is going to be a historical amount of divorces/separations incoming

decreds

DataDude wrote: »

Of course agree with above but I do think the primary reason younger people are disillusioned an feel house prices need to fall in price is they compare themselves to what their equivalent in the prior generation could have done. This is why McWilliams etc. views resonate with so many.

I know (and am related to) so many people in their 50s/60s who had incredibly average careers with limited educations, never earning above today's equivalent of €150k living in €2m+ houses in Dalkey. The reality is were they the exact same person, exact same career a few decades later they'd be potentially looking for social housing. It's that dramatic mismatch in the inflation of property prices vs wages that drives the undercurrent of discontent.

I'm incredibly fortunate to be in a very top percentile of earners but it drives me up the wall hearing my parents/aunts/uncles talk in a sympathetic (but really condescending) tone about cousin x who's "35 and still can't afford his/her own home" as if it's some sort of failing on their behalf. Then often use my position as proof that "it's still possible today, nothing wrong with house prices". The reality is cousin X is doing absolutely fine and their career is on a par with their parents before them, but "average earnings" don't really get you a whole lot anymore.

I might not fit the description of young locked out buyer, but I can clearly see their plight and do think you need to be a little bit blinkered to not do so.

It's scares the life out of me, but I truly think it's the mindset/denial above that's going to lead to fairly radical political reform in the not too distant future. Prices falls will come with that overhaul I'm sure, unfortunately so will after tax incomes...(as a side note to anyone disillusioned as I have described above feeling locked out, the reality is our "extreme left" parties are actually bizarrely anti-young people in many ways and will staunchly defend the "poor old person" in their €4m house in Colimore Road which they can barely heat because "The home isn't an asset (LOL)"

Completely agree with all points in this great post, especially the section on radical political reform. Here's how i see the next decade playing out and how it impacts the property market:



2021: Lockdowns for most of the year, property market pretty much not stagnant. Further divide between the haves and have nots. Not much changes in property prices.



2022: Partial lockdowns, government support removed, further economic decline due to this. Supply slowly dripping to the market as fear slowly subsides about the virus. Further divide between haves and have nots due to removal of the PUP payment. Perhaps 10% drop in prices in Dublin to supply + blended WFH.



2023: Still recovering from economic fallout caused by the pandemic. With an guesstimated 70-80% of grown adults still living at home due to high rents/not able to buy, the discontent rises and the Have nots grow sick and tired of situation and it becomes clear SF have a strong chance of gaining power in the following years election. Current Gov was already panicking about this possibility and ramps up housing supply but it will probably be too little too late. Property prices drop 5-10%.


2024:

SF gain power. Brain drain commences due to tax increases to fund social housing. This could be the beginning of a property crash.


2024-2028:
This is anyone's guess, i try to remaining apolitical but i fear landlords will be targeted by SF and supporters. Not something akin to Mao Zedong treatment of landlords during the Chinese land reform but it won't be pretty from an financial standpoint at least. If sh!t hit's the fan it may only be a 1 term government but I'm completely guessing at this stage.

jmlad2020

Is now a good time to buy in historically cheaper regions (The West, North West) especially now with remote working?

Marius34

So here we go, 2020 Q4 results finally completed.
Sorry to disappoint again those who were going against my predictions.

Marius34 wrote: »

Early Prediction: CSO Property Price Index to turn positive for 2020 Q4.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115260157&postcount=8731

Update 1

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115420662&postcount=9652

Update 2
So most of the 2020 Q4 has been added on PPR (~90%), it appears transaction level is back to Pre-Crisis level.
There are no big change over December, slight decrease on Median price in Dublin, and slight increase outside Dublin, when comparing to my last post in November, on PPR data, but still well above 2019.
The CSO Price Index is scheduled for Tuesday. I expect it will be the month when negative to turn positive Nationally, it probably still will appear negative on report for Dublin due to Data Smoothing, thus Dublin Co. may turn positive a month later.

End of The Story:

"Residential property prices (houses and apartments) increased by 2.2% nationally in the year to December."
"In Dublin, residential property prices saw an increase of 1.2% in the year to December, while property prices outside Dublin were 3.1% higher."
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2020/

cnocbui

jmlad2020 wrote: »

Is now a good time to buy in historically cheaper regions (The West, North West) especially now with remote working?

If you are the one who will be doing the working from what you buy, and it works for you, it might well be. If you are thinking of buying something just as an investment, i wouldn't be taking that punt, personally.

Villa05

Cyrus wrote:

as i said McWilliams lives in a 7 figure house on the southside, you need to take that into perspective when listen to him.

I think he addresses your concern in the podcat

cnocbui wrote:

On the currently buying thread, I have lost count of the number of people who complain about the number of properties requiring renovation and the lack of turn-keys in their price range.

Your point has been addressed by others but just to add. Limited borrowing capacity,

decreds wrote:

* We won't have mass immigration for years * Less people are dating/meeting new people * People are fearful, fearful people tend to put off reproducing * There is going to be a historical amount of divorces/separations incoming

And of course, high property cost leading to also very high childcare costs
Double whammy meaning children are unaffordable.

We have allowed property to be a parasite on our people

cnocbui

We need to get tradespeople and builders to accept hefty incom cuts.

Cyrus

decreds wrote: »

Projected population growth is severely over estimated (at least for this decade) for multiple reasons:


* We won't have mass immigration for years
* Less people are dating/meeting new people
* People are fearful, fearful people tend to put off reproducing
* There is going to be a historical amount of divorces/separations incoming

A little like property prices birth rates at the moment are up

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/baby-boom-or-baby-bust-how-covid-19-has-affected-pregnancy-1.4368524%3fmode=amp

Eric Cartman

decreds wrote: »

Completely agree with all points in this great post, especially the section on radical political reform. Here's how i see the next decade playing out and how it impacts the property market:



2021: Lockdowns for most of the year, property market pretty much not stagnant. Further divide between the haves and have nots. Not much changes in property prices.



2022: Partial lockdowns, government support removed, further economic decline due to this. Supply slowly dripping to the market as fear slowly subsides about the virus. Further divide between haves and have nots due to removal of the PUP payment. Perhaps 10% drop in prices in Dublin to supply + blended WFH.



2023: Still recovering from economic fallout caused by the pandemic. With an guesstimated 70-80% of grown adults still living at home due to high rents/not able to buy, the discontent rises and the Have nots grow sick and tired of situation and it becomes clear SF have a strong chance of gaining power in the following years election. Current Gov was already panicking about this possibility and ramps up housing supply but it will probably be too little too late. Property prices drop 5-10%.


2024:

SF gain power. Brain drain commences due to tax increases to fund social housing. This could be the beginning of a property crash.


2024-2028:
This is anyone's guess, i try to remaining apolitical but i fear landlords will be targeted by SF and supporters. Not something akin to Mao Zedong treatment of landlords during the Chinese land reform but it won't be pretty from an financial standpoint at least. If sh!t hit's the fan it may only be a 1 term government but I'm completely guessing at this stage.

In general i dont agree with lots of this but SF getting to power in 2024 and all the professionals and business owners leaving to avoid insane taxes i can absolutely see happening sadly.

beggars_bush

Eric Cartman wrote: »

In general i dont agree with lots of this but SF getting to power in 2024 and all the professionals and business owners leaving to avoid insane taxes i can absolutely see happening sadly.

Where will they go? Seriously?

Smouse156

cnocbui wrote: »

We need to get tradespeople and builders to accept hefty incom cuts.

We need landowners (development land) who contribute virtually nothing to society to take a big hit to their “assets” either through windfall tax, mass Re-zoning or compulsory purchase orders at agricultural land prices.

Smouse156

beggars_bush wrote: »

Where will they go? Seriously?

On a serious note the best & brightest can quite easily find jobs abroad if high taxes eat much of their income. Sinn Féin need to come up with real alternatives to FFG continuously propping up overpriced housing...maybe by focusing on cost of construction especially land

Hubertj

Smouse156 wrote: »

We need landowners (development land) who contribute virtually nothing to society to take a big hit to their “assets” either through windfall tax, mass Re-zoning or compulsory purchase orders at agricultural land prices.

I thought land costs accounted for only 11% of costs? I think there are other costs that need to be addressed as well but labour isnt 1 of them.

Villa05

Cyrus wrote:

A little like property prices birth rates at the moment are up

It might have gone unnoticed but the best chance of getting an affordable home for some people is the number of children you have. This is not a slight on these people. This is a product of the system

For others, mainly working its a very different story

enricoh

cnocbui wrote: »

We need to get tradespeople and builders to accept hefty incom cuts.

I take it your not a tradesperson or builder! They took plenty of cuts from 2008-2014/5. You have to make hay while it shines in building.

Villa05

enricoh wrote:

I take it your not a tradesperson or builder! They took plenty of cuts from 2008-2014/5. You have to make hay while it shines in building.

Workers are a non issue, it can be hard graft and they are paid appropriately
Many are self employed which needs to be taken into account

Eric Cartman

beggars_bush wrote: »

Where will they go? Seriously?

Theres still a few countries left without insane tax laws.

Poland will be my destination if SF ever get power. Taxation is still high but more reasonable than here.

HansKroenke

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Theres still a few countries left without insane tax laws.

Poland will be my destination if SF ever get power. Taxation is still high but more reasonable than here.

For myself, Switzerland is an option. I'd consider it if SF got into power.

cnocbui

Tax laws are already insane to my mind and irrespective of whether or not they get any worse, I'm intending to emigrate to NZ. Currently no CGT, 8% less consumption tax and far lower overall tax burden on people.

cnocbui

HansKroenke wrote: »

For myself, Switzerland is an option. I'd consider it if SF got into power.

You are very lucky. I like Switzeralnd a lot, but residency requirements are pretty tough to meet.

MacronvFrugals

Many first-time buyers will be frozen out of purchasing new apartments

A Business Post analysis has revealed that apartment costs are set to rise far beyond the mortgage-borrowing ability of many prospective new homeowners

New-build apartments are expected to make up the majority of the market within two years, according to real estate agents sources, which is predicted to drive up the cost of apartments.

The information on new-build apartment prices was gathered from documentation that was supplied by developers to An Bord Pleanála.

Based on the findings, typical first-time buyers will not be able to afford new-build two-bed apartments in Dublin. Nearly half of first-time buyers could also struggle to afford new-build one-bed apartments in the city.

In central Dublin, first-time buyers will probably need to earn a total household salary of €117,000 to afford a new-build two-bed apartment. A two-bed in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown will likely requiring a salary of €110,000.

Based on data published by the Central Statistics Office, only 14 per cent of Irish households earn in excess of €100,000.

Lorcan Sirr, a senior lecturer in housing at Technological University Dublin, said contradictory housing policy has facilitated the surge in apartment prices.

“Government policy is trying to encourage densification and confusing that with having to build apartments. On the other hand, policy has made them so expensive and lowered the quality, so no one wants to live in them. What we're doing is doubling down and forcing people out to commuter counties where they can buy an affordable house.

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/many-first-time-buyers-will-be-frozen-out-of-purchasing-new-apartments-dfea5e76?auth=login