2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Eric Cartman

cnocbui wrote: »

As I aluded to in my earlier misinterpreted sarcastic comment - who are you proposing to volunteer to take the income hit in order to get the costs down?

Tradespeople, builders, material suppliers, banks, local councils, the Irish government or let me guess the favourite - land owners?

take vat off the price of new houses, abolish stamp duty for PPR's , abolish CGT on land sold to build residential housing , abolish council contributions, development levies and the requirement to build social housing in private estates, stop this crap of building fake creches that never open in estates.

decreds

fliball123 wrote: »

Point1 So have you a crystal ball for immigrations?
Point2 Dating is now all done online?
Point3 You mean a bucking of the trend of Irish people for over the last 100 years. We are one of the most fertile counties in the world. Also there is no other country that gives an unmarried mum the handouts we do. Literally last week a niece of mine who works earning 40k , has 3 kids from 2 different dads so she gets money under the table from both and is not included as part of looking after the kids and she got an apartment brand new fully funished all new furniture and she pays 25 Euro a week from the council. What is there to be afraid of ??
Point4 Surely a divorce or separation would result in 2 properties being needed instead of 1 so it would mean we need more properties.

Most of the dating online now is not leading to higher birth rates. I also never implied i had a crystal ball but it doesn't take a genius to figure out that the levels of immigration have dropped substantially and will continue to stay at depressed levels for a few years, at least.

Eric Cartman

Bruno Millions Geisha wrote: »

Government's affordable housing plan would raise house prices – ESRI

https://www.independent.ie/news/governments-affordable-housing-plan-would-raise-house-prices-esri-40094936.html

* pretends to be surprised *

we really have to stop money being input into the purchase of a house, offsetting the cost with tax credits/rebates, subsidies, equity shares etc.. is a nightmare. The cash price needs to be reduced.

fliball123

decreds wrote: »

Most of the dating online now is not leading to higher birth rates. I also never implied i had a crystal ball but it doesn't take a genius to figure out that the levels of immigration have dropped substantially and will continue to stay at depressed levels for a few years, at least.

so you know this for a fact that online dating is not leading to a higher birth rate, have you anything to support this?? dating, births, immigration and all other things that have been stifled during covid will return once covid is over. Its like you think people can go traveling willy nilly when they cant at the moment.

poker--addict

fliball123 wrote: »

so you know this for a fact that online dating is not leading to a higher birth rate, have you anything to support this?? dating, births, immigration and all other things that have been stifled during covid will return once covid is over. Its like you think people can go traveling willy nilly when they cant at the moment.

Please start a separate thread in a separate part of the forum for this. Boring and moving off topic.

fliball123

poker--addict wrote: »

Please start a separate thread in a separate part of the forum for this. Boring and moving off topic.

If you had followed the discussion it wasn't off topic

Lmkrnr

How close is this boom to the tiger days? It feels like it won't end (price rise),.I remember feeling that before though circa 2008!!

poker--addict

fliball123 wrote: »

If you had followed the discussion it wasn't off topic

I did. It reads like two guys sniping at each other hoping to impose their view on each-other. But sure keep it going if it’s constructive to the topic. :rolleyes:

fliball123

poker--addict wrote: »

I did. It reads like two guys sniping at each other hoping to impose their view on each-other. But sure keep it going if it’s constructive to the topic. :rolleyes:

Not sniping just asking the poster for evidence nothing more nothing less

L1011

Dating discussion *and* unofficial attempts to moderate the thread can both stop.

MacronvFrugals

In news to nobody...

Government's Help To Buy scheme aided people 'who had large deposits and were able to buy anyway'

In a submission to be delivered to the Oireachtas housing committee, officials from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) will say that funding these people when supply is so constrained “will very likely lead to higher house prices”.

A review of the Help To Buy scheme data suggests that many households with large deposits have received support, the ESRI will say.

“It is likely these households were not constrained and would have been able to complete the transaction anyway,” their opening statement, seen by the Irish Examiner, states:

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40227437.html

Billythekid19

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

In news to nobody...

Government's Help To Buy scheme aided people 'who had large deposits and were able to buy anyway'




https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40227437.html

Only problem now is that any government who even contemplates abolishing the htb scheme will be crucified come election time. Whether we like it or not these schemes are here to stay.

Marius34

Lmkrnr wrote: »

How close is this boom to the tiger days? It feels like it won't end (price rise),.I remember feeling that before though circa 2008!!

It's far from tiger days.
In both of the main measures. Construction wise, as well as Income/Price wise.

fago

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

In news to nobody...

Government's Help To Buy scheme aided people 'who had large deposits and were able to buy anyway'

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40227437.html

The CSO stats for 2020 show 2.2% YoY increase for new builds v's .2% for 2nd hand.

Yet another indication that these initiatives just get directly fed into property inflation.

Villa05

Is ftb grant available to people who build on their own land, so they have the grant plus free site.

B Rabbit

Villa05 wrote: »

Is ftb grant available to people who build on their own land, so they have the grant plus free site.

Yes, new builds qualify. Doesn't matter where you got the site

Villa05

It does appear that these Government measures are extremely limited in reaching those people that actually need them, while being very costly for the taxpayer and achieving the opposite to what the schemes are labelled ie affordable

If the government was serious about solving the issue. Measures would tackle the supply side rather than pushing demand side resulting in increasing prices and reducing affordability

I don't know how anyone could defend these measures knowing their very very limited benefits, huge cost and in general achieving the opposite of their supposed intentions

Madness in the property market, stay tuned for more episodes or look back over the last 20 years in our catch-up threads

hmmm

Lmkrnr wrote: »

How close is this boom to the tiger days? It feels like it won't end (price rise),.I remember feeling that before though circa 2008!!

It feels very different. There is a supply shock now caused by Covid, and that coming on top of a general lack of building since the developers collapsed during the financial crisis.

During the tiger there was no shortage of property, it was just being snapped up because people with a bit of money assumed it was a one-way bet - no matter where it was located or what state it was in. It was a proper mania back then - right now people just want somewhere to live.

Agreed we need supply, but that's being constrained from every angle. Just build and stop with the "we have our crayons out and we've come up with a better use of the land so let's vote the current plan down". The other issue is build costs, and while a lot of that is land a lot of that is higher spec buildings also - not sure what we're supposed to do about that.

Stark

Went to enquire about a property earlier. Already has bids in above the asking price despite no viewings. People just bidding based on the pictures off the website.

optogirl

Stark wrote: »

Went to enquire about a property earlier. Already has bids in above the asking price despite no viewings. People just bidding based on the pictures off the website.

It's bonkers. I hate that I'm caught up in this bubble of panic.

Sierra Oscar

hmmm wrote: »

It feels very different. There is a supply shock now caused by Covid, and that coming on top of a general lack of building since the developers collapsed during the financial crisis.

During the tiger there was no shortage of property, it was just being snapped up because people with a bit of money assumed it was a one-way bet - no matter where it was located or what state it was in. It was a proper mania back then - right now people just want somewhere to live.

Agreed we need supply, but that's being constrained from every angle. Just build and stop with the "we have our crayons out and we've come up with a better use of the land so let's vote the current plan down". The other issue is build costs, and while a lot of that is land a lot of that is higher spec buildings also - not sure what we're supposed to do about that.

Indeed. Keep in mind a huge number of properties being bought during the Celtic Tiger were from small time investors looking to purchase a buy-to-let for cheap on interest only loans.

The market at the moment is being driven by first time buyers competing amongst each other in a frenzied manner in the affordable home bracket. The lack of supply is driving the frenzy and there seems to be no end in sight to the supply crisis.

Yes of course there are still purchases being made for buy-to-let, but this area is being dominated by institutional investors with swelling balance sheets. During the Celtic Tiger it was every Tom, Dick and Harry purchasing a second or third property fueling the buy-to-let market and with it the entire market.

Timing belt

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Indeed. Keep in mind a huge number of properties being bought during the Celtic Tiger were from small time investors looking to purchase a buy-to-let for cheap on interest only loans.

The market at the moment is being driven by first time buyers competing amongst each other in a frenzied manner in the affordable home bracket. The lack of supply is driving the frenzy and there seems to be no end in sight to the supply crisis.

Yes of course there are still purchases being made for buy-to-let, but this area is being dominated by institutional investors with swelling balance sheets. During the Celtic Tiger it was every Tom, Dick and Harry purchasing a second or third property fueling the buy-to-let market and with it the entire market.

There is no evidence of people buying property to try and flip and make a profit so not one bit like Celtic tiger. Issue now is not enough properties for ftb’s.

Villa05

Sierra Oscar wrote:

Indeed. Keep in mind a huge number of properties being bought during the Celtic Tiger were from small time investors looking to purchase a buy-to-let for cheap on interest only loans.

The cheap loan issue has not gone away, 100% mortgages are nearly back with the workarounds from government. In fact you could say shared ownership will bring us to 125% mortgages

Sierra Oscar wrote:

The market at the moment is being driven by first time buyers competing amongst each other in a frenzied manner in the affordable home bracket. The lack of supply is driving the frenzy and there seems to be no end in sight to the supply crisis.

Bubbles can be formed by supply side constraints as well as demand side causes

Sierra Oscar wrote:

Yes of course there are still purchases being made for buy-to-let, but this area is being dominated by institutional investors with swelling balance sheets.

Is it sustainable, are these investors going to be allowed make off with super normal profits tax free forever while much of their revenue is derived from infrastructure provided by the taxpayer

Who here would oppose an appropriate tax on their profits that reflects inputs from the state

Marius34

Marius34 wrote: »

It's far from tiger days.
In both of the main measures. Construction wise, as well as Income/Price wise.

It is in people's attitudes however, people desperate to buy, biding on houses without setting foot inside!
The hysteria is the same

Sierra Oscar

Villa05 wrote: »

The cheap loan issue has not gone away, 100% mortgages are nearly back with the workarounds from government. In fact you could say shared ownership will bring us to 125% mortgages

Not for your second, third or fourth loan though. Massive difference this time around. Small investors are not purchasing multiple properties on the back of 100% interest free loans.


The various initiatives from the Government are essentially a direct transfer of wealth to first time buyers too, giving a refund on income tax and DIRT. It doesn't result in them having a 100% interest fee loan that they are highly likely to be unable to pay down the line. The bank are still stress testing capability to pay pretty stringently whereas that did not happen during the later stages of the Celtic Tiger.

Villa05 wrote: »

Bubbles can be formed by supply side constraints as well as demand side causese

Assuming demand collapses. Do you see that happening? First-time buyers are fueling the demand, I don't really think that demand will fall away too easily. They still want a place to live.

If someone can afford to purchase now, at the height of a pandemic, then I don't really think demand will collapse in a few years down the line. Who knows though.

Personally it feels like to me that the market will remain frenzied until supply catches up with demand, not the other way around.

Marius34

bubblypop wrote: »

It is in people's attitudes however, people desperate to buy, biding on houses without setting foot inside!
The hysteria is the same

Peoples attitude might not change, some don't want to be stuck in rental forever, and desperately want to become a home owner. But fundamentally we are far from tiger boom.

DataDude

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Not for your second, third or fourth loan though. Massive difference this time around. Small investors are not purchasing multiple properties on the back of 100% interest free loans.


The various initiatives from the Government are essentially a direct transfer of wealth to first time buyers too, giving a refund on income tax and DIRT. It doesn't result in them having a 100% interest fee loan that they are highly likely to be unable to pay down the line. The bank are still stress testing capability to pay pretty stringently whereas that did not happen during the later stages of the Celtic Tiger.



Assuming demand collapses. Do you see that happening? First-time buyers are fueling the demand, I don't really think that demand will fall away too easily. They still want a place to live.

If someone can afford to purchase now, at the height of a pandemic, then I don't really think demand will collapse in a few years down the line. Who knows though.

Personally it feels like to me that the market will remain frenzied until supply catches up with demand, not the other way around.

The only thing that I can't square off in my head is - we have been talking about a supply deficit, low interest rates, foreign investors etc. for some time now but yet prices have been meandering slowly south since 2018. In particular the premium end of the market was suffering the most (if the past is anything to go by, this appears to be a more leading indicator)

Anecdotes seem to suggest there is a bit of a frenzy on at the minute which seemed to kick off around November 2020. If one was to list all the things that the pandemic is going to change in terms of longer term supply/demand fundamentals, I personally can't see the aggregate impact being positive for prices. So not sure why the long term trend would suddenly reverse from 2018.

Short term supply/demand though is all over the place in a way that we have never seen before. Think it could be some time before all the short term issues subside and bring us back to "normality".

Browney7

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Not for your second, third or fourth loan though. Massive difference this time around. Small investors are not purchasing multiple properties on the back of 100% interest free loans.


The various initiatives from the Government are essentially a direct transfer of wealth to first time buyers too, giving a refund on income tax and DIRT. It doesn't result in them having a 100% interest fee loan that they are highly likely to be unable to pay down the line. The bank are still stress testing capability to pay pretty stringently whereas that did not happen during the later stages of the Celtic Tiger.



Assuming demand collapses. Do you see that happening? First-time buyers are fueling the demand, I don't really think that demand will fall away too easily. They still want a place to live.

If someone can afford to purchase now, at the height of a pandemic, then I don't really think demand will collapse in a few years down the line. Who knows though.

Personally it feels like to me that the market will remain frenzied until supply catches up with demand, not the other way around.

Whilst I agree that the banks have a 90% LTV on paper for a new build, my own opinion is it's a riskier proposition for the bank in a time of stress than a 90% LTV on a second hand build. If you need to sell the new build a few years after purchasing you would do very well to sell it for what you paid for it especially if HTB in its current form still exists. Why would an FTB buy a second hand "new build" with no refund if they can buy one in the estate next door for a similar price and get 10% back?

Would be interesting to see what % of new builds below the HTB threshold are bought by non FTB's.

Blue Badger

Does anyone know when details on the equity scheme are supposed to be released assuming there has been any communication on such? I haven't been able to find anything online so am working on the assumption that it's still a wait and see.

Am terrified that this scheme is just going to bump house prices even higher and saddle FTB'ers with further debt.

Mic 1972

DataDude wrote: »

Anecdotes seem to suggest there is a bit of a frenzy on at the minute which seemed to kick off around November 2020. If one was to list all the things that the pandemic is going to change in terms of longer term supply/demand fundamentals, I personally can't see the aggregate impact being positive for prices. So not sure why the long term trend would suddenly reverse from 2018.

the trend has been positive all the way since 2018, especially in Dublin

MacronvFrugals

Blue Badger wrote: »

Does anyone know when details on the equity scheme are supposed to be released assuming there has been any communication on such? I haven't been able to find anything online so am working on the assumption that it's still a wait and see.

Am terrified that this scheme is just going to bump house prices even higher and saddle FTB'ers with further debt.

You know its going bad when TD's tried to pressure the ESRI into not saying the shared equity scheme would push up prices, thankfully they did say it anyways.

TDs deny they tried to 'pressure' ESRI to withdraw criticism of Affordable Housing Bill

Government representatives have denied that they tried to "pressure" the ESRI into changing its statement to the Oireachtas Housing Committee.

The institute was before the committee on Tuesday as part of the pre-legislative scrutiny of the Government's Affordable Housing Bill.

The ESRI warned that the Shared Equity Home Loan part of the bill "will very likely lead to higher house prices".

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40227935.html

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

In particular the premium end of the market was suffering the most (if the past is anything to go by, this appears to be a more leading indicator)

if by premium end you mean 800k-1.5m i think that stagnation was more around affordability limits than anything else, people at that level are still salaried in the main, just relatively well paid, the CB rules put the brakes on here (thankfully).

DataDude

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the trend has been positive all the way since 2018, especially in Dublin

False. Been flat excluding Dublin. Been declining in Dublin. Source: CSO

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

if by premium end you mean 800k-1.5m i think that stagnation was more around affordability limits than anything else, people at that level are still salaried in the main, just relatively well paid, the CB rules put the brakes on here (thankfully).

I think it was a little worse than stagnant. Saw some figures of -3 to -5% in the premium end.
But even if we assume stagnant, whilst those people are still generally employed. I don't think too many have seen a mega boost to earnings from COVID-19 that will, in the long term, allow them to borrow more than they would have been able were COVID not to have existed?

That's why I struggle to see a longer term trend suddenly being favorable after a period of being very static.

Browney7

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the trend has been positive all the way since 2018, especially in Dublin

Not sure what data you are inferring the above from? CSO price index had Dublin in Jan 2018 at 121.8 before peaking at 127.7 in October 18 and now stands at 125.1.

it's very interesting to see the jump in the 2017 year coincides nicely with the CBI changing the LTV rule to be a flat 90% LTV for FTBs instead of the older sliding scale. Economic growth and recovery obviously impacted here also

cnocbui

DataDude wrote: »

The only thing that I can't square off in my head is - we have been talking about a supply deficit, low interest rates, foreign investors etc. for some time now but yet prices have been meandering slowly south since 2018. In particular the premium end of the market was suffering the most (if the past is anything to go by, this appears to be a more leading indicator)

Anecdotes seem to suggest there is a bit of a frenzy on at the minute which seemed to kick off around November 2020. If one was to list all the things that the pandemic is going to change in terms of longer term supply/demand fundamentals, I personally can't see the aggregate impact being positive for prices. So not sure why the long term trend would suddenly reverse from 2018.

Short term supply/demand though is all over the place in a way that we have never seen before. Think it could be some time before all the short term issues subside and bring us back to "normality".

Prices are rising in the US, UK, Australia and NZ. But yeah, once again, Ireland is oh-so 'special' and will go against the international trend.

Villa05

Sierra Oscar wrote:

The various initiatives from the Government are essentially a direct transfer of wealth to first time buyers too, giving a refund on income tax and DIRT. It doesn't result in them having a 100% interest fee loan that they are highly likely to be unable to pay down the line. The bank are still stress testing capability to pay pretty stringently whereas that did not happen during the later stages of the Celtic Tiger.

Well many would legitamly argue that it is a transfer to developers not ftb

It may have been missed last time but it was the taxpayer that paid the bills when the banks collapsed and those that could not afford mortgages were basically left in the home

Playing musical chairs with risk is pointless if its taxpayers picking up the tab all the time

Blue Badger

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

You know its going bad when TD's tried to pressure the ESRI into not saying the shared equity scheme would push up prices, thankfully they did say it anyways.

TDs deny they tried to 'pressure' ESRI to withdraw criticism of Affordable Housing Bill



https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40227935.html

Sometimes with all this carry on I feel like screaming because buying a house in this country as one of the younger generation is so maddening.

Balluba

Bad news today for 150 people who will lose their jobs with Kerry Group.

wassie

Browney7 wrote: »

Whilst I agree that the banks have a 90% LTV on paper for a new build, my own opinion is it's a riskier proposition for the bank in a time of stress than a 90% LTV on a second hand build. If you need to sell the new build a few years after purchasing you would do very well to sell it for what you paid for it especially if HTB in its current form still exists. Why would an FTB buy a second hand "new build" with no refund if they can buy one in the estate next door for a similar price and get 10% back?

Would be interesting to see what % of new builds below the HTB threshold are bought by non FTB's.

Its a good point about why HTB distorts the market. But dont forget Revenue can claw back the HTB if you sell within 5 years. That being said, I would be curious to know if this happens and if it is on a pro-rata basis for balance of 5 year period remaining.

TobyHolmes

cnocbui wrote: »

Prices are rising in the US, UK, Australia and NZ. But yeah, once again, Ireland is oh-so 'special' and will go against the international trend.

i'm not sure what you mean by your comment but even if prices are rising in those countries there are still alot more property options and commutable areas then we have here in Ireland so an increase in prices affects ireland drastically - we are only a small small market compared to those other countries you list - with the exception of New Zealand

Marius34

DataDude wrote: »

I think it was a little worse than stagnant. Saw some figures of -3 to -5% in the premium end.
But even if we assume stagnant, whilst those people are still generally employed. I don't think too many have seen a mega boost to earnings from COVID-19 that will, in the long term, allow them to borrow more than they would have been able were COVID not to have existed?

That's why I struggle to see a longer term trend suddenly being favorable after a period of being very static.

There are many components why this happens. Here are some of the main components:

1) Increased Household savings (probably most important factor)
2) WFH
3) Reduced concerns on Brexit
4) Reduced concerns on Recession (second half of 2020)
5) HTB
6) Increased Build-2-Let
7) Increased Social Housing
8) Reduced number for sale due to Lockdowns.
...

thefridge2006

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/moneylenders-are-creeping-into-middle-income-areas-tds-are-told-40098022.html

UH OH..... but we're grand, we'll be propped up forever and things won't get any worse...

Yurt2

TobyHolmes wrote: »

i'm not sure what you mean by your comment but even if prices are rising in those countries there are still alot more property options and commutable areas then we have here in Ireland so an increase in prices affects ireland drastically - we are only a small small market compared to those other countries you list - with the exception of New Zealand

Interestingly, NZ has a chronic housing crisis probably an order of magnitude worse than Ireland (I know a well-paid kiwi who got a mortgage with two of his uni mates in Wellington as it was the only way to 'get on the ladder'), and for the same reasons we have an affordability crisis.

The government response (Kiwibuild) is startlingly similar to the proposed 'affordable' housing measures here, was a complete cluster*ck and inflated prices further, and basically only further advantaged people who had the money to buy in the first place.

You'd wonder do the civil servants in the Department of Housing have access to the internet to research this at all?

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/moneylenders-are-creeping-into-middle-income-areas-tds-are-told-40098022.html

UH OH..... but we're grand, we'll be propped up forever and things won't get any worse...

Care to give any analysis or context about why posting about money lenders lending to middle income people is important in the context of the property market ? Or do you just like bad news stories regardless ?

DataDude

Marius34 wrote: »

There are many components why this happens. Here are some of the main components:

1) Increased Household savings (probably most important factor)
2) WFH
3) Reduced concerns on Brexit
4) Reduced concerns on Recession (second half of 2020)
5) HTB
6) Increased Build-2-Let
7) Increased Social Housing
8) Reduced number for sale due to Lockdowns.
...

Again, not denying there is a clear upward trend in prices currently. But if anything your list would reinforce to me that the primary drivers at play at the moment very much short term effects. If all we read is to be true and house prices were stagnating in 2019 due to affordability limits being reached on demand side. I can't see how any of the below are going to dramatically enhance the demand side outlook in the coming years (i.e. average earnings are not going to massively increase)

1) Increased Household savings (probably most important factor)Short term demand side impact. Not a sustainable long term change in buying power.
2) WFHPotential change in the type of demand but not directly improving overall demand side, although argued by some here, would be more likely to lead to demand moving from supply constrained areas to less supply constrained areas
3) Reduced concerns on Brexit Fair point, although not like the Brexit outcome was fantastic. Also talk around election time was that nobody actually seemed to care. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/don-t-mention-the-b-word-brexit-barely-figures-as-an-election-issue-1.4167398
4) Reduced concerns on Recession (second half of 2020)Would explain bounce back in late 2020 for sure, but I'm talking versus 2019. Not sure how people could be more economically confident now than late 2019.
5) HTBIncrease of €10k a factor for sure
6) Increased Build-2-Let Not sure
7) Increased Social HousingNot sure
8) Reduced number for sale due to Lockdowns.Short term supply side effect which is what I think is currently the biggest factor at play along with number (1) above

decreds

cnocbui wrote: »

Prices are rising in the US, UK, Australia and NZ. But yeah, once again, Ireland is oh-so 'special' and will go against the international trend.

Where do you get your information from? Please link evidence to such bizarre claims.

US: House-prices-fall-for-first-time-in-six-months-in-january



https://www.msn.com/en-gb/finance/other/house-prices-fall-for-first-time-in-six-months-in-january/ar-BB1dj1bD



Prices have dropped in the big cities as people flee for bigger "safer" havens. This is reason behind any increase in sales but prices are not rising.


UK: UK Property prices fall in January as property market runs out of steam



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-house-prices-average-latest-halifax-b1798414.html


Australia: The property market in OZ is literally the worst model to follow. It is at the tail end of a massive bubble that is heavily reliant upon mining and propped up by massive debt. Nearly everyone i know in OZ who owns property is up to their eyes in debt, it is not sustainable.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/16/the-australian-property-market-is-booming-but-the-gains-are-based-on-massive-debts

NZ: Prices are in fact dropping. Shock horror 3/4.
National median prices were down 2 per cent from December


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/reinz-data-auckland-house-prices-drop-25000-sales-fall-46/Z5FKCEW3MJ2F2NFI42XR6QTW4Q/


To quote yourself "But yeah, once again, Ireland is oh-so 'special' and will go against the international trend" . I wonder if Ireland will be so special and go against the international trend which is facing the biggest recession in history.


I find it ironic that you called out a poster who historically uses data to back up their claims with no actual data lol. Hilarious

Yurt2

cnocbui wrote: »

Prices are rising in the US, UK, Australia and NZ. But yeah, once again, Ireland is oh-so 'special' and will go against the international trend.

There's more to the world than anglo-countries you know. These are the countries with the most liberalised financial sectors and 'hands-off' attitude from governments. It's primarily a cultural problem as well as an economic and social one, as evidenced by your dismissive post.

It's no surprise that Anglo countries are experiencing this issue most acutely. If you want to take these countries as 'the world', go ahead. But you're highlighting the worst in class, and I'd rather Ireland not go down that road when there are clear alternatives how to approach this problem if there was the political will to do so.

Marius34

DataDude wrote: »

Again, not denying there is a clear upward trend in prices currently. But if anything your list would reinforce to me that the primary drivers at play at the moment very much short term effects. If all we read is to be true and house prices were stagnating in 2019 due to affordability limits being reached on demand side. I can't see how any of the below are going to dramatically enhance the demand side outlook in the coming years (i.e. average earnings are not going to massively increase)

1) Increased Household savings (probably most important factor)Short term demand side impact. Not a sustainable long term change in buying power.
2) WFHPotential change in the type of demand but not directly improving overall demand side, although argued by some here, would be more likely to lead to demand moving from supply constrained areas to less supply constrained areas
3) Reduced concerns on Brexit Fair point, although not like the Brexit outcome was fantastic. Also talk around election time was that nobody actually seemed to care. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/don-t-mention-the-b-word-brexit-barely-figures-as-an-election-issue-1.4167398
4) Reduced concerns on Recession (second half of 2020)Would explain bounce back in late 2020 for sure, but I'm talking versus 2019. Not sure how people could be more economically confident now than late 2019.
5) HTBIncrease of €10k a factor for sure
6) Increased Build-2-Let Not sure
7) Increased Social HousingNot sure
8) Reduced number for sale due to Lockdowns.Short term supply side effect which is what I think is currently the biggest factor at play along with number (1) above

I thought it wasn't clear to you why it's starting to go upwards after the stability on previous 2-3 years.
The reasons I listed is why there is likely upwards trends for now & 2021&2022. Not long term ones. It's anyone's guess where price will move in 5 or 10 years...

decreds

Yurt! wrote: »

There's more to the world than anglo-countries you know. These are the countries with the most liberalised financial sectors and 'hands-off' attitude from governments. It's primarily a cultural problem as well as an economic and social one, as evidenced by your dismissive post.

It's no surprise that Anglo countries are experiencing this issue most acutely. If you want to take these countries as 'the world', go ahead. But you're highlighting the worst in class, and I'd rather Ireland not go down that road when there are clear alternatives how to approach this problem if there was the political will to do so.

Exactly, terrible housing markets to model. What's even worse is prices are actually falling in 3/4 countries lmao. That post should not be taken seriously.