2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

decreds

Marius34 wrote: »

I thought it wasn't clear to you why it's starting to go upwards after the stability on previous 2-3 years.
The reasons I listed is why there is likely upwards trends for now & 2021&2022. Not long term ones.

That's because there likely won't be long term price rises.

Villa05

Sierra Oscar wrote:

Assuming demand collapses. Do you see that happening? First-time buyers are fueling the demand, I don't really think that demand will fall away too easily. They still want a place to live.

It's possible, many of the jobs being created ar being filled by foreign applicants. This increases our transient population.

More likely is:

We are also pushing towards 40% of the population renting. These people are finding it tough, they will be looking politically for solutions and their parents siblings will be looking at it also
We amongst the most underdeveloped nations in the EU, its not difficult to solve the supply side. Land, capital and increasingly sufficient labour is available to solve it

People will say that it would take years, but a simple declaration that we will deal with the supply side issues with a plan will move the market, just as the incompetence/apathy to solving it has moved the market for the last 10 years

cnocbui

decreds wrote: »

Where do you get your information from? Please link evidence to such bizarre claims.

US: House-prices-fall-for-first-time-in-six-months-in-january

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/finance/other/house-prices-fall-for-first-time-in-six-months-in-january/ar-BB1dj1bD

I'd be glad to. You are cherry picking apallingly. 'fall for fist time in 6 months' So 6 out of 7 months were price rises but a slight pull back negates the trend? Are you for real?

The US:

Cash sales tend to take place at the higher end of property market chains and include larger type houses in the country so the Land Registry shows the greatest increase and the highest average price.

The Halifax and Nationwide statistics are based only on transactions involving a mortgage. Typically about a third of sales are for cash and this proportion is even higher in retirement areas.

The Nationwide index is statistically weighted to compensate for this so we have the Land Registry saying prices have risen 7.6% and Nationwide closely shadowing this saying 7.3%.

Halifax is much lower at 6% although the Halifax average price is higher than the Nationwide’s. What they all agree is that 2020 saw a significant increase in house prices.

https://www.mortgagefinancegazette.com/market-news/housing/house-price-analysis-statistics-really-tell-us-08-02-2021/

Here's the trend in established family home sales:


https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/

Here's the trend in new home sales:


https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

Existing home sales in 2020 hit highest point since 2006, but listings are at a record low
Published Fri, Jan 22 202110:00 AM ESTUpdated Fri, Jan 22 202110:26 AM EST

Pandemic-driven demand sent total 2020 home sales to the highest level since 2006.
Closed sales of existing homes in December increased 0.7% from November to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.76 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Sales were 22% stronger than December 2019.
...
Still, even the most avid buyers are bumping up against barriers in today’s housing market. Record low supply and record high prices are limiting the exceptionally high demand.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/existing-home-sales-in-2020-were-highest-since-in-over-a-decade.html

Sorry, did you make up something about prices falling?

Prices have dropped in the big cities as people flee for bigger "safer" havens. This is reason behind any increase in sales but prices are not rising.

Which Harry Potter book did you get that from?.


The UK:

UK: UK Property prices fall in January as property market runs out of steam

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-house-prices-average-latest-halifax-b1798414.html

You did the same for the UK - cherry picked a single month:

The average UK house price ended 2020 at a record high of £253,374, it has been estimated.

The Halifax House Price Index showed that house prices in December were 6% higher than in the same month a year earlier.

But the month-on-month price increase of 0.2% was significantly down from the 1% increase seen in November.

https://news.sky.com/story/house-prices-end-2020-at-record-high-but-pace-of-growth-has-slowed-12182077

6% growth in house price YOY is not evidence of a house price decline in the UK.


Australia:

Australia: The property market in OZ is literally the worst model to follow. It is at the tail end of a massive bubble that is heavily reliant upon mining and propped up by massive debt. Nearly everyone i know in OZ who owns property is up to their eyes in debt, it is not sustainable.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/16/the-australian-property-market-is-booming-but-the-gains-are-based-on-massive-debts

NZ: Prices are in fact dropping. Shock horror 3/4.
National median prices were down 2 per cent from December

An Irishman (I presume?) going on about massive Australian debt, as an Australian, the irony is not lost on me.

Ireland:

Debt per Citizen 42,327 €
Debt as % of GDP 67.96%

Australia, poor sods, on the brink of financial collapse: /s

Debt per Citizen € 15,498.2
Debt as % of GDP 48.39%

https://worlddebtclocks.com/australia

Ireland has nearly 3 times the debt per head, but those poor aussies debts are unsustainable and they are in trouble? Wake up.

Australia’s house prices soar to record highs over 2020
Sue WilliamsDomain Reporter Jan 28, 2021

National house prices leapt to new record highs at the end of 2020, scotching dire predictions that COVID-19 would trigger a complete collapse of the market.

With the median house price in Sydney now at an all-time peak of $1,211,488, Melbourne’s at $936,073 and Canberra’s at $855,530, every capital city recorded massive growth over the past year.

https://www.domain.com.au/news/australias-house-prices-soar-to-record-highs-over-2020-1020487/


New Zealand:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/reinz-data-auckland-house-prices-drop-25000-sales-fall-46/Z5FKCEW3MJ2F2NFI42XR6QTW4Q/

Auckland is a city, New Zealand is a country.

House prices rise nearly 20% in a year to median $725K
9:56 am on 12 November 2020

House prices have increased 19.8 percent year-on-year with the median now at $725,000.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/430418/house-prices-rise-nearly-20-percent-in-a-year-to-median-725k

I'm guessing I don't have to explain 20%?

To quote yourself "But yeah, once again, Ireland is oh-so 'special' and will go against the international trend" . I wonder if Ireland will be so special and go against the international trend which is facing the biggest recession in history.

I find it ironic that you called out a poster who historically uses data to back up their claims with no actual data lol. Hilarious

The possibility of a recession is a hypothetical, I was addressing the current state of trends in house prices in certain markets, and the above proves my point.

cnocbui

decreds wrote: »

Exactly, terrible housing markets to model. What's even worse is prices are actually falling in 3/4 countries lmao. That post should not be taken seriously.

Is that 3 out of 4 on Mars perhaps?

Sorry to use the IMF - and no, M doesn't stand for Mars - as a source of information, but it just seemed so - whats the word? - ah, yes: authoritative.



I know, you are going to say too old - they seem slow. OECD data then:

https://data.oecd.org/price/housing-prices.htm

Ireland is in the middle of the pack, roughly. Be thankful you aren't a FTBer in Hungary or Turkey. Move to Italy.

So no, house prices are not falling in 3/4 of countries:

Q3 2020: Global house price boom strengthens, despite Covid-19 crisis

Matthew Montagu-Pollock | December 07, 2020

During the year to Q3 2020:

House price increases strengthened in many countries in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Canada and the US during the year to Q3 2020. Real house prices (i.e., prices adjusted for inflation) rose in 43 out of the 55 world’s housing markets which have so far published housing statistics.
The more upbeat nominal figures, more familiar to the public, showed house price rises in 45 countries, and declines in only 10 countries.

https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/investment-analysis/Q3-2020-Global-house-price-boom-strengthens-despite-Covid-19-crisis

cnocbui

Yurt! wrote: »

There's more to the world than anglo-countries you know. These are the countries with the most liberalised financial sectors and 'hands-off' attitude from governments. It's primarily a cultural problem as well as an economic and social one, as evidenced by your dismissive post.

It's no surprise that Anglo countries are experiencing this issue most acutely. If you want to take these countries as 'the world', go ahead. But you're highlighting the worst in class, and I'd rather Ireland not go down that road when there are clear alternatives how to approach this problem if there was the political will to do so.

Try some of my links above - it's a global trend, mate, and not confined to evil 'anglo' countries. Canada, Australia and New Zealand are better places to live, IMO, than Ireland. So what's your criteria for worst in class? I could do with a laugh.

Yurt2

cnocbui wrote: »

Try some of my links above - it's a global trend, mate, and not confined to evil 'anglo' countries. Canada, Australia and New Zealand are better places to live, IMO, than Ireland. So what's your criteria for worst in class? I could do with a laugh.

Tell you what mate, I could get stuck in and make you look rather silly on your OECD stats from your Google-fu, but you're just one of those posters. I've a cheese toasty ready and I'm mid way through a Netflix series. Find someone else to coax into your playpen.

cnocbui

Yurt! wrote: »

Tell you what mate, I could get stuck in and make you look rather silly on your OECD stats from your Google-fu, but you're just one of those posters. I've a cheese toasty ready and I'm mid way through a Netflix series. Find someone else to coax into your playpen.

Don't forget your ball.

thefridge2006

cnocbui wrote: »

Try some of my links above - it's a global trend, mate, and not confined to evil 'anglo' countries. Canada, Australia and New Zealand are better places to live, IMO, than Ireland. So what's your criteria for worst in class? I could do with a laugh.

Nobody's forcing you to stay

Graham

Mod Note

knock it off.

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

You know its going bad when TD's tried to pressure the ESRI into not saying the shared equity scheme would push up prices, thankfully they did say it anyways.

TDs deny they tried to 'pressure' ESRI to withdraw criticism of Affordable Housing Bill



https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40227935.html

They really laid into that poor ESRI employee today:

“ESRI officer defends comments on housing scheme amid Government pushback”

“Independent Senator Victor Boyhan welcomed the institute’s input. “I don’t believe you set out to upset people but I do believe you have given us a dose of reality,” he said.”

Talk about blaming the messenger. They must be really worried the whole housing market is built on sand to be this angry about what should basically be just another insignificant report IMO

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/esri-officer-defends-comments-on-housing-scheme-amid-government-pushback-1.4486703

Blue Badger

Am chucking down some interesting snippets from the Ibec report positing the benefits of a shared equity scheme for the country; see the link if you want to read the entire report

(https://www.propertyindustry.ie/Sectors/PII/PII.nsf/vPages/Publications~the-irish-equity-loan-29-06-2020/%24file/The+Irish+Equity+Loan+June+2020+version+3+July+2020.pdf)

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

They really laid into that poor ESRI employee today:

“ESRI officer defends comments on housing scheme amid Government pushback”

“Independent Senator Victor Boyhan welcomed the institute’s input. “I don’t believe you set out to upset people but I do believe you have given us a dose of reality,” he said.”

Talk about blaming the messenger. They must be really worried the whole housing market is built on sand to be this angry about what should basically be just another insignificant report IMO

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/esri-officer-defends-comments-on-housing-scheme-amid-government-pushback-1.4486703

It further highlights why any discrepancies in figures needs to be queried.

Imagine a scheme written by a group of lobbyists tied to the property sector then when the independent people we trust are asked their view on it TDs don’t want to hear it, banana republic stuff

poker--addict

In all 3 examples gov will provide greater assistance for apartments, and the upper limit for apartments is higher than homes. Why?

I am sad to read we are promoting 485,000 euro apartments. Our policy makers are obsessed with apartments. I wonder how many of them have raised a child in the shoebox size apartments we endorse in Ireland?

These equity schemes should get families into family homes. If we want more families to be raised in apartments then change regs to insist on larger units, we are doing the opposite.

jill_valentine

poker--addict wrote: »

In all 3 examples gov will provide greater assistance for apartments, and the upper limit for apartments is higher than homes. Why?

I am sad to read we are promoting 485,000 euro apartments. Our policy makers are obsessed with apartments. I wonder how many of them have raised a child in the shoebox size apartments we endorse in Ireland?

These equity schemes should get families into family homes. If we want more families to be raised in apartments then change regs to insist on larger units, we are doing the opposite.

In theory, we do need lots of apartments, because single people, particularly men, are overrepresented in homelessness figures, and removing the rent incentive to wedge 9 people into a three bed would go a long way.

But the government consistently develops schemes that serve only to raise the cost of housing, and units in that kind of price range are useless except as safe deposit boxes. Mid range 1 and 2 bed apartments are exactly what need rn and they're like gold dust.

combat14

varadker states pay cuts and tax rises on the way albeit delayed for another little while .. reassuring for those buying a house and worth factoring in when getting a mortgage the next while .. last time the pay cuts to public servants and tax rises were brutal & swingeing - who knows what they will be like this time with govt debt absolutely soaring at present


There will be no cuts to public sector pay or increase in income tax for “at least for the first couple of years” after the pandemic, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has said.

https://m.independent.ie/news/tanaiste-commits-to-no-post-pandemic-tax-hikes-or-cuts-to-public-sector-pay-40100605.html

Hubertj

combat14 wrote: »

varadker states pay cuts and tax rises on the way albeit delayed for another little while .. reassuring for those buying a house and worth factoring in when getting a mortgage the next while .. last time the pay cuts to public servants and tax rises were brutal & swingeing - who knows what they will be like this time with govt debt absolutely soaring at present


There will be no cuts to public sector pay or increase in income tax for “at least for the first couple of years” after the pandemic, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has said.

https://m.independent.ie/news/tanaiste-commits-to-no-post-pandemic-tax-hikes-or-cuts-to-public-sector-pay-40100605.html

How would you suggest debt is repaid? Of course taxes will increase. I think we will see an increase in property taxes and other measures to broaden the tax base. Such increases will be done over a longer period of time.
Public servants are in a very privileged position.

Hubertj

Interesting to see how this plays out. With so many options KPMG can get a good deal here which will place downward pressure on grade A offices in Dublin going forward.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/six-of-the-best-in-bid-to-deliver-new-dublin-hq-for-kpmg-1.4486605

PropQueries

combat14 wrote: »

varadker states pay cuts and tax rises on the way albeit delayed for another little while .. reassuring for those buying a house and worth factoring in when getting a mortgage the next while .. last time the pay cuts to public servants and tax rises were brutal & swingeing - who knows what they will be like this time with govt debt absolutely soaring at present


There will be no cuts to public sector pay or increase in income tax for “at least for the first couple of years” after the pandemic, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has said.

https://m.independent.ie/news/tanaiste-commits-to-no-post-pandemic-tax-hikes-or-cuts-to-public-sector-pay-40100605.html

So in two years time we will start paying back our debt and pay the salaries for the additional 70,000 public sector workers they intend to hire over the 19 month period starting March 2020.

And they're going to do all this without increasing taxes or cutting public sector pay? To me, that only really leaves pensions and property that's left to be taxed at that stage and in the meantime IMO

Link to Irish Times article on Michael McGrath hiring 70,000 additional public sector workers over the 19 month period starting March 2020: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/number-of-public-servants-to-rise-to-370-000-over-next-19-months-1.4482201

hmmm

jill_valentine wrote: »

In theory, we do need lots of apartments, because single people, particularly men, are overrepresented in homelessness figures, and removing the rent incentive to wedge 9 people into a three bed would go a long way.

But the government consistently develops schemes that serve only to raise the cost of housing, and units in that kind of price range are useless except as safe deposit boxes. Mid range 1 and 2 bed apartments are exactly what need rn and they're like gold dust.

Yeah, we need lots more apartments and density in general. There is this obsession with "housing for families" when there are vast numbers of single people and couples who also need somewhere to live and don't want to live in a semi-d with a big commute. The demographics are suggesting that we will have a lot more 2 person households in the future, I think McWilliams keeps going on about this. Not every housing unit has to have room for kids, a garden and a pony.

PropQueries

hmmm wrote: »

Yeah, we need lots more apartments and density in general. There is this obsession with "housing for families" when there are vast numbers of single people and couples who also need somewhere to live and don't want to live in a semi-d with a big commute. The demographics are suggesting that we will have a lot more 2 person households in the future, I think McWilliams keeps going on about this. Not every housing unit has to have room for kids, a garden and a pony.

I think they definitely should build apartments in the city but I think the issue is that given the rents they intend to charge, two incomes will be required to pay the proposed rents i.e. a couple/family? So, they're not aimed at single people IMO

And, if we're honest, the primary reason people have less children these days is primarily due to the cost of housing, so it's kind of a self fullfilling prophesy?

Blue Badger

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7odXQx148qwbXrrNJBFH9C?si=nUo8h5zlRVWk8W7AMO5iMg

^link for this morning's newstalk breakfast show with the housing minister discussing the new housing bill and being questioned about what the ESRI is warning

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

Talk about blaming the messenger. They must be really worried the whole housing market is built on sand to be this angry about what should basically be just another insignificant report IMO

The comments by the FF senator are eye opening
53% of rents subsidised by the state.
Many of the remaining unsubsidised renters are under severe pressure and cant afford a mortgage.
Add
Every new housing unit is subsidised by the state through ftb grant or tax breaks for investment funds

And the solution she is selling is subprime lending supported by the state on adjustable rates to people who the banks have decided are too risky in an environment of 0% interest rates.

The state is the largest landowner in the country has access to free money and the pool of labour required to build is increasing.

This can be fixed easily and be revenue positive for the state instead they are pursuing policy after policy that drives prices and rents up, costs the taxpayer a fortune, and makes the problem worse

In addition the markets are predicting inflation which makes tackling supply an even greater no brainer and income generator for the state

Villa05

Yurt! wrote:

Interestingly, NZ has a chronic housing crisis probably an order of magnitude worse than Ireland (I know a well-paid kiwi who got a mortgage with two of his uni mates in Wellington as it was the only way to 'get on the ladder'), and for the same reasons we have an affordability crisis.

Yurt! wrote:

The government response (Kiwibuild) is startlingly similar to the proposed 'affordable' housing measures here, was a complete cluster*ck and inflated prices further, and basically only further advantaged people who had the money to buy in the first place.

Yurt! wrote:

You'd wonder do the civil servants in the Department of Housing have access to the internet to research this at all?

Civil servants have persistabtly warned against government measures
Did you ever think that this is politics and the party and there financiers come before people, the economy and the country.

We have been here before

Browney7

Villa05 wrote: »

The comments by the FF senator are eye opening
53% of rents subsidised by the state.
Many of the remaining unsubsidised renters are under severe pressure and cant afford a mortgage.
Add
Every new housing unit is subsidised by the state through ftb grant or tax breaks for investment funds

And the solution she is selling is subprime lending supported by the state on adjustable rates to people who the banks have decided are too risky in an environment of 0% interest rates.

The state is the largest landowner in the country has access to free money and the pool of labour required to build is increasing.

This can be fixed easily and be revenue positive for the state instead they are pursuing policy after policy that drives prices and rents up, costs the taxpayer a fortune, and makes the problem worse

In addition the markets are predicting inflation which makes tackling supply an even greater no brainer and income generator for the state

I was stunned with the 53% figure when I read it myself. Pretty sure the ESRI mean it in the context of 53% of people who are classified as renting are supported by the state (which would include LA housing and make a lot more sense!). I don't think they are saying 53% of participants in the private rental sector are receiving state support although with HAP this will continue to rise

PropQueries

Blue Badger wrote: »

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7odXQx148qwbXrrNJBFH9C?si=nUo8h5zlRVWk8W7AMO5iMg

^link for this morning's newstalk breakfast show with the housing minister discussing the new housing bill and being questioned about what the ESRI is warning

Interesting that he said they're going to "deliver" 13,000 social housing units this year.

That's very good news for landlords, REITS and other large investors into the build-to-rent sector.

However, bad news for the rest of us given that we will be paying for these long-term lease agreements for the next 25 odd years and all signed at what most now agree is the height of the market IMO

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

So in two years time we will start paying back our debt and pay the salaries for the additional 70,000 public sector workers they intend to hire over the 19 month period starting March 2020.

And they're going to do all this without increasing taxes or cutting public sector pay? To me, that only really leaves pensions and property that's left to be taxed at that stage and in the meantime IMO

Link to Irish Times article on Michael McGrath hiring 70,000 additional public sector workers over the 19 month period starting March 2020: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/number-of-public-servants-to-rise-to-370-000-over-next-19-months-1.4482201

OK lets just cut this out..Not just you Props. Before covid we had turned a corner with our deficit we have been paying back debt since the 2008 crash. The problem had been our deficit over those years. We had actually managed to recover and in 2018 and 2019 we were taking in more money than spending even when servicing a 200Billion debt. Now Corona has kicked in 2020 and 2021 we will be borrowing another 30 billion for this but the existing 200billion was refinanced at a almost 0% rate along with the new 30Billion so we are not paying out much more on interest and we still do not know what way the deficit will be after the country opens back up. One thing the world has learned is that austerity does not work. lets see how their approach works this time.

Also remember there had been an embargo on public sector jobs for years after 2008 which put a lot of pressure on some public sector areas. The garda are one such area, same goes with school teachers. Props you still have not joined the dots that our population has increased year on year for the last 100 years and as such the public sector has to grow to accommodate this as well. Cant believe I am actually defending the public sector. I do agree with you on what it costs for a public sector worker in this country and what should be done is public sector should stop paying the pension levy and be told to pay for their own pension just like the unwashed masses in the private sector.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

OK lets just cut this out..Not just you Props. Before covid we had turned a corner with our deficit we have been paying back debt since the 2008 crash. The problem had been our deficit over those years. We had actually managed to recover and in 2018 and 2019 we were taking in more money than spending even when servicing a 200Billion debt. Now Corona has kicked in 2020 and 2021 we will be borrowing another 30 billion for this but the existing 200billion was refinanced at a almost 0% rate along with the new 30Billion so we are not paying out much more on interest and we still do not know what way the deficit will be after the country opens back up. One thing the world has learned is that austerity does not work. lets see how their approach works this time.

Also remember there had been an embargo on public sector jobs for years after 2008 which put a lot of pressure on some public sector areas. The garda are one such area, same goes with school teachers. Props you still have not joined the dots that our population has increased year on year for the last 100 years and as such the public sector has to grow to accommodate this as well. Cant believe I am actually defending the public sector. I do agree with you on what it costs for a public sector worker in this country and what should be done is public sector should stop paying the pension levy and be told to pay for their own pension just like the unwashed masses in the private sector.

Whether we require more public sector workers or not (I think not) is a mute point in my mind.

How we intend to pay for them without increasing income taxes or pay/pension cuts is vastly more important to me.

And, I'm still of the opinion that our eastern european EU neighbours, who have much lower real debt and pay/pension levels than we do, aren't going to keep allowing the ECB to keep funding our extravagances forever and a day IMO

Otherwise, it's just the ECB printing money and handing it over to some of the western EU countries for free.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Whether we require more public sector workers or not (I think not) is a mute point in my mind.

How we intend to pay for them without increasing income taxes or pay/pension cuts is vastly more important to me.

And, I'm still of the opinion that our eastern european EU neighbours, who have much lower real debt and pay/pension levels than we do, aren't going to keep allowing the ECB to keep funding our extravagances forever and a day IMO

Otherwise, it's just the ECB printing money and handing it over to some of the western EU countries for free.

Weather you agree or disagree about ps workers. The 3 points below can be proven so instead of you licking your finger and sticking it in the air to see which way the wind is blowing, just try and get your head around these 3 points.

1) We had an employment embargo for years after 2008 - so no new hires

2) We had an active campaign of people taking redundancies or retirement in the PS in those years as well - Having said that none of it was forced and the PS were treated with kid gloves during the last recession- so losing staff

So numbers wise in the ps we had 325117 back in 2008 this dropped to 291838 in 2013 and back to 330576 in 2018 so in effect we have had an increase of about 5k ps workers in that time

https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/public-service-numbers-and-pay-from-austerity-to-recovery/

3) We have had an increase in our population of 567,035 since 2008

So we have hired 1 ps worker for every 100 people added to our population over that period. Not sure how this tallies with the rest of the globe with numbers.


So as much as I dislike the attitude and the entitlement culture in our PS along with the ridiculously high pay, pensions and perks we have a need for more resources. This is a fact not an IMO

I reckon the idea will be to get the economy going again, get people working again, employment is the driver for all taxation with the exception of corpo tax people have to work to pay it. The ECB is funding every country at the moment do you not think other countries even your beloved eastern euro countries are having problems during covid and need financial support

Cyrus

850k for this ??

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/12b-wayside-cottages-kilternan-dublin-18/4484282

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

850k for this ??

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/12b-wayside-cottages-kilternan-dublin-18/4484282

Madness

Hubertj

Cyrus wrote: »

850k for this ??

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/12b-wayside-cottages-kilternan-dublin-18/4484282

Does the price include the fussball table? Sweetens the deal

MacronvFrugals

Analysis: How Sinn Féin will seek to undermine LDA launch with its own unofficial website

‘Non-partisan’ site will be modelled on Nama Wine Lake project which gained a considerable following and led to questions in the Dáil

The new Land Development Agency (LDA) is supposed to deliver up to 20,000 homes on public land in the decades ahead. The bill to set it up is arriving in the Dáil for the first time today.

But Sinn Féin is launching its own LDA website to thwart this key policy priority for Darragh O’Brien, the Minister for Housing.

It is an interesting venture from Sinn Féin because its unofficial LDA website will be presented as a “non-partisan” destination for all information for LDA housing projects around the country.

It is modelled on the now mothballed Nama Wine Lake website which was founded by an anonymous person during the last recession to question the actions of the National Asset Management Agency. It gained a considerable following and some of the information published there led to questions in the Dáil and responses from Nama. The author of the site signed off in 2013, having managed to keep his or her identity a secret.

https://www.businesspost.ie/ireland/analysis-how-sinn-fein-will-seek-to-undermine-lda-launch-with-its-own-unofficial-website-134570c9?auth=login

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Analysis: How Sinn Féin will seek to undermine LDA launch with its own unofficial website







https://www.businesspost.ie/ireland/analysis-how-sinn-fein-will-seek-to-undermine-lda-launch-with-its-own-unofficial-website-134570c9?auth=login

I suppose if people are gullible enough to believe the HTB and other schemes will not increase prices they will be believe Sinn Fein would publish “non partisan”information.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I suppose if people are gullible enough to believe the HTB and other schemes will not increase prices they will be believe Sinn Fein would publish “non partisan”information.

In fairness to SF on this I don't see the problem if they're doing it to criticise government policy - that's their job as opposition. And if it is true that government are trying to hush up ESRI criticism, the website might serve a useful purpose.

I guess it's a bit sneaky if they don't disclose they are behind it but cannot really see how they can inject a republican flavour into criticism of the LDA.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

I suppose if people are gullible enough to believe the HTB and other schemes will not increase prices they will be believe Sinn Fein would publish “non partisan”information.

In the very short term it may increase the price of new builds (or maybe just stop developers reducing their prices?).

Then in 5 years time, just when the buyers have to start making repayments on the government “subsidy/help/loan”, the state will finally admit we have a pension/healthcare budget problem and jack up PRSI to 20%-30% (still not an income tax increase in their eyes).

That will then bring real income taxes up to c. 70% at the higher rate (threshold probably dropped to €20k by that stage) on top of the additional mortgage payments these people will be forced to pay IMO

MacronvFrugals

It seems O Brien's bill has been heavily watered down compared to the one Eoghan Murphy proposed(FG), mostly the LDA is not going to be the super quango handing public land over to developers that Fine Gael wanted

Markitron

Cyrus wrote: »

850k for this ??

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/12b-wayside-cottages-kilternan-dublin-18/4484282

How the **** can they call it newly built when it's 5 years old?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

In the very short term it may increase the price of new builds (or maybe just stop developers reducing their prices?).

Then in 5 years time, just when the buyers have to start making repayments on the government “subsidy/help/loan”, the state will finally admit we have a pension/healthcare budget problem and jack up PRSI to 20%-30% (still not an income tax increase in their eyes).

That will then bring real income taxes up to c. 70% at the higher rate (threshold probably dropped to €20k by that stage) on top of the additional mortgage payments these people will be forced to pay IMO

Then why didnt they do that after 2008? 20/30 on PRSI dont think so and 70% at the higher rate the law of diminishing returns is currently kicking in at the rate currently 70% will result in less taxes being collected.

Villa05

Browney7 wrote:

I was stunned with the 53% figure when I read it myself. Pretty sure the ESRI mean it in the context of 53% of people who are classified as renting are supported by the state (which would include LA housing and make a lot more sense!). I don't think they are saying 53% of participants in the private rental sector are receiving state support although with HAP this will continue to rise

I believe the figure for private rents is over 30%
I'm not sure what category the homeless/homeless hubs and those living in hotel rooms come under.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

In the very short term it may increase the price of new builds (or maybe just stop developers reducing their prices?).

Then in 5 years time, just when the buyers have to start making repayments on the government “subsidy/help/loan”, the state will finally admit we have a pension/healthcare budget problem and jack up PRSI to 20%-30% (still not an income tax increase in their eyes).

That will then bring real income taxes up to c. 70% at the higher rate (threshold probably dropped to €20k by that stage) on top of the additional mortgage payments these people will be forced to pay IMO

If real income taxes are 70% and you are paying 23% VAT, the tax burden would be 93% of income earned.

Thankfully, I don't believe that to be feasible.

cnocbui

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Analysis: How Sinn Féin will seek to undermine LDA launch with its own unofficial website

LDA - just what this country needs, more civil servants.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Then why didnt they do that after 2008? 20/30 on PRSI dont think so and 70% at the higher rate the law of diminishing returns is currently kicking in at the rate currently 70% will result in less taxes being collected.

Basically because austerity was the name of the game last time. Plus we went from having one of the lowest government debt levels in the world to one of the highest which cushioned the level of tax rises required to keep the economy going at that time.

Today, the buzzword is “bigger state”. That means significant tax rises ahead IMO

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Basically because austerity was the name of the game last time. Plus we went from having one of the lowest government debt levels in the world to one of the highest which cushioned the level of tax rises required to keep the economy going at that time.

Today, the buzzword is “bigger state”. That means significant tax rises ahead IMO

Look up the phrase of "law of diminishing returns" and you will understand that raising taxes to unaffordable levels will not work. So you think that raising to 70% is not austerity. We have been paying the debt back since 2008 so surely we should of all been paying 120% taxes to pay it off come on Props we will never see 70% tax rates again this was the reason Ireland had such high emigration out of the country when it was here, It was not worth a persons while working. Also no political party would bring it in as they would be crucified.

MacronvFrugals

March 5 construction deadline could be missed by a month

"What you might see is some limited movement on construction in March but a full re-opening of construction is now more likely in April," said one minister.

Asked about the easing of level 5 restrictions, which has resulted in 700 to 800 fewer houses being built each week, Mr O'Brien said: "Obviously we have a target date there of March 5, a review will happen next week.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40228661.html

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

I believe the figure for private rents is over 30%
I'm not sure what category the homeless/homeless hubs and those living in hotel rooms come under.

Would it be fair to say that the state has now almost fully privatised social housing through the back-door?

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

Would it be fair to say that the state has now almost fully privatised social housing through the back-door?

Pretty much homeless services to, they dont even bother tendering anymore.


Council Doesn’t Follow Normal Procurement Process to Source Homeless Hostels

The Dublin Region Homeless Executive (DRHE) is looking to roll out more homeless hostels in the city.

“We are interested in talking to landlords and property owners about properties that can be used as family hubs or hostels for single persons,”says a press release issued by the council on 28 January.

But Dublin city councillors and a TD are concerned about the way the DRHE is going about it.

Not just because it is seeking private landlords rather than charities, but also because it’s not following the procurement process that would usually apply when government bodies spend large amounts of money, skirting rules that are in place to make sure it’s all fair and open.

https://dublininquirer.com/2021/02/17/council-doesn-t-follow-normal-procurement-process-to-source-homeless-hostels

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Pretty much homeless services to, they dont even bother tendering anymore.


Council Doesn’t Follow Normal Procurement Process to Source Homeless Hostels




https://dublininquirer.com/2021/02/17/council-doesn-t-follow-normal-procurement-process-to-source-homeless-hostels

And look at the costs. DCC is expected to spend over €200 million on homeless services in 2021.

To put the figure in perspective, they could build c. 1,000 3 bed houses for that figure and house all the homeless families in Dublin permanently twice over. And that’s from just one years spend.

Privatisation works for e.g. telecoms, where there’s competition to drive down prices and improve services.

There’s absolutely no possible benefit to the state or the taxpayer from privatising social housing.

Link to Irish Times DCC homeless projected spend in 2021: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/dublin-homelessness-services-to-cost-213m-next-year-1.4416301

Number of homeless families in Dublin: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/number-of-homeless-families-in-dublin-hotels-lowest-in-five-years-1.4310076

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

Would it be fair to say that the state has now almost fully privatised social housing through the back-door?

There probably doing it through the front door, but that's probably down to what appears to be an effective opposition

The most concerning part is If the housing market was a smartphone market
We would all have to buy/or subsidise the latest pro version of the iPhone when an alternate at 1/10 of the cost is blocked from being sold

decreds

combat14 wrote: »

varadker states pay cuts and tax rises on the way albeit delayed for another little while .. reassuring for those buying a house and worth factoring in when getting a mortgage the next while .. last time the pay cuts to public servants and tax rises were brutal & swingeing - who knows what they will be like this time with govt debt absolutely soaring at present


There will be no cuts to public sector pay or increase in income tax for “at least for the first couple of years” after the pandemic, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has said.

https://m.independent.ie/news/tanaiste-commits-to-no-post-pandemic-tax-hikes-or-cuts-to-public-sector-pay-40100605.html

Anyone in their twenties/thirties with a brain and no kids will be leaving this country in droves after this pandemic ends.



Huge brain drain on the way. Plenty in the tech industry earning good coin but still struggling due to this banana republics housing and tax system and make no mistake they will earn good money in other parts of the world, especially now that remote work is the norm in the industry.

Timing belt

decreds wrote: »

Sorry to derail this thread, i need advice and not sure where to start - mods if this requires it's own thread i will do the needful

Due to separation i had to sell my property in July 2020, after all deductions i am left with 180k and around 20k in savings. I'm currently living with a family member paying 400e per month in rent but would really like my own place sooner rather than later as i am 35 and have two young children.

The properties i desire are in the 400-420k range but i am hesitant to jump in now with 200k deposit as from what i have read up on on investing and market cycles (very limited knowledge) it appears we're at the end of a market cycle and don't want to get burned like people during the GFC. The property needs to be close to South Dublin hence the price range.

Should i wait a year or two and see how things materialize or go for it now?

Have you checked how much of a mortgage you will get as any maintenance payments for kids will dramatically reduce the amount a bank will lend and it will be nowhere near 3.5 times salary. Just jump on one of the banks mortgage calculators to see the impact.