2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

decreds

Timing belt wrote: »

Have you checked how much of a mortgage you will get as any maintenance payments for kids will dramatically reduce the amount a bank will lend and it will be nowhere near 3.5 times salary. Just jump on one of the banks mortgage calculators to see the impact.

Asked for 240k and have AIP 240k.

Smouse156

Markitron wrote: »

How the **** can they call it newly built when it's 5 years old?

They obviously have no interest in selling it at that asking price. Could be a divorce or something like that where the wife doesn’t want to sell the family home. They should have asked €2,000,000

Smouse156

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

March 5 construction deadline could be missed by a month





https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40228661.html

Should they just dissolve FFG now given they’ll likely be completely wiped out next election for their complete and utter failure yet again on housing?

cnocbui

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

March 5 construction deadline could be missed by a month

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40228661.html

Politician time: 1 month = 8 months


Actually quite a bit quicker than Musk time.

thefridge2006

Smouse156 wrote: »

Should they just dissolve FFG now given they’ll likely be completely wiped out next election for their complete and utter failure yet again on housing?

It's a complete disgrace. I've voted FF all my life and I'm done with them. They are a shower of cowards who live in a fantasy world. They are unable to adapt away from boom time party developer politics and relate with the great unwashed. Good riddance

thefridge2006

Ulster Bank set to exit Irish market after more than 160 years

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/ulster-bank-set-to-exit-irish-market-after-more-than-160-years-1.4487912

awec

thefridge2006 wrote: »

It's a complete disgrace. I've voted FF all my life and I'm done with them. They are a shower of cowards who live in a fantasy world. They are unable to adapt away from boom time party developer politics and relate with the great unwashed. Good riddance

This post has to be a joke.

You now, all of a sudden have an issue with FF housing strategy / policy after voting for them all your life? Where have you been the past 20 years?

This is like a green voter saying they're done with the GP cause their policies are too green!

PropQueries

Ok. A couple of days of good debate coming here I reckon

According to to the Irish Times:

“Ulster Bank set to exit Irish market after more than 160 years”

“The board of NatWest is set to decide on Thursday evening on a proposal to wind down Ulster Bank in the Republic after more than 160 years in the market, setting the stage for a likely break-up of the lender’s €20.5 billion loan book, according to sources.”

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/ulster-bank-set-to-exit-irish-market-after-more-than-160-years-1.4487912

Edit: Apologies. Another poster got ahead of me on the story

awec

Someone will correct me if I am wrong I am sure, and I may be thinking of another bank or something else entirely, but hasn't this Ulster Bank move been mooted for years now?

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Someone will correct me if I am wrong I am sure, and I may be thinking of another bank or something else entirely, but hasn't this Ulster Bank move been mooted for years now?

You're spot on.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Someone will correct me if I am wrong I am sure, and I may be thinking of another bank or something else entirely, but hasn't this Ulster Bank move been mooted for years now?

It’s most likely real this time. We’ll know Friday, but it looks like the Irish Times believes it’s now going ahead.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

It’s most likely real this time. We’ll know Friday, but it looks like the Irish Times believes it’s now going ahead.

There is no surprise here. NatWest used 15bn to bail them out in ‘08 and have had a near zero return for the past 10 years.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

You're spot on.

PropQueries wrote: »

It’s most likely real this time. We’ll know Thursday, but it looks like the Irish Times believes it’s now going ahead.

Yes I suspect that the past year has pushed them into making a decision, but I do think they had been struggling for a long time.

It is bad news for mortgage holders / potential new mortage holders as it's even less competition for the big 2 of BOI and AIB.

Timing belt

awec wrote: »

Yes I suspect that the past year has pushed them into making a decision, but I do think they had been struggling for a long time.

It is bad news for mortgage holders / potential new mortage holders as it's even less competition for the big 2 of BOI and AIB.

The biggest change will be Aib and BOI aggressively introducing negative rates to limit the inflow of deposits from Ulster bank

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Ok. A couple of days of good debate coming here I reckon

According to to the Irish Times:

“Ulster Bank set to exit Irish market after more than 160 years”

“The board of NatWest is set to decide on Thursday evening on a proposal to wind down Ulster Bank in the Republic after more than 160 years in the market, setting the stage for a likely break-up of the lender’s €20.5 billion loan book, according to sources.”

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/ulster-bank-set-to-exit-irish-market-after-more-than-160-years-1.4487912

Edit: Apologies. Another poster got ahead of me on the story

As awec posted this has been coming for a long time, but your post suggests you see it as significant in the context of Irish housing , why?

cnocbui

Timing belt wrote: »

There is no surprise here. NatWest used 15bn to bail them out in ‘08 and have had a near zero return for the past 10 years.

Which the article hints is the fault of the Government.

Timing belt

cnocbui wrote: »

Which the article hints is the fault of the Government.

It has nothing to do with the government it’s a commercial decision where NatWest can sell ulster and use cash to develop online offering in the UK. The only way the government could be involved is if they bought ulster bank.

PropQueries

If the so-called vulture funds do buy all the ulster bank loans (makes sense IMO), Ireland will most likely then just be a wholly owned subsidiary of these funds. A country in name only IMO

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

If the so-called vulture funds do buy all the ulster bank loans (makes sense IMO), Ireland will most likely then just be a wholly owned subsidiary of these funds. A country in name only IMO

I think Ulster Bank are only like 10-15% of the mortgage market. I think they're one of the smallest holdings of all the high-street banks.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

I think Ulster Bank are only like 10-15% of the mortgage market. I think they're one of the smallest holdings of all the high-street banks.

Well, according to that RTÉ documentary back in 2017, they purchased c. €200 billion in Irish bank loans between 2012 and 2016.

Throw in what they’ve additionally bought between 2016 and 2020 and now throw in Ulster Bank and they will now own us IMO

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, according to that RTÉ documentary back in 2017, they purchased c. €200 billion in Irish bank loans between 2012 and 2016.

Throw in what they’ve additionally bought between 2016 and 2020 and now throw in Ulster Bank and they will now own us IMO

Don’t forget the billions of securitization. The truth is you don’t have a clue who owns all the Irish debt and in reality it doesn’t make much of a difference.

PommieBast

Cyrus wrote: »

850k for this ??

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/12b-wayside-cottages-kilternan-dublin-18/4484282

Why is that car within a tent within the garage..


Price is a bit high but I don't think it is outrageous..

thefridge2006

PommieBast wrote: »

Why is that car within a tent within the garage..


Price is a bit high but I don't think it is outrageous..

It's in quarantine, it has the Corolla virus..................i'll get my coat

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

Don’t forget the billions of securitization. The truth is you don’t have a clue who owns all the Irish debt and in reality it doesn’t make much of a difference.

With securitisation you’re still dealing with the bank you know and have a relationship with. Vulture funds are a completely different kettle of fish to “securitisation”.

Given that the Irish Times says the Ulster Bank loan book is c. €20 billion, it puts the €200 billion in loans the vulture funds purchased from Irish banks between 2012 and 2016 (not including the additional god knows how much billions they purchased between 2016 and 2020) into perspective IMO.

If the vulture funds do purchase the Ulster Bank loan book (as appears likely from the Irish Times article), the vulture funds will now indeed fully control the country formally known as Ireland IMO.

No ifs, no buts. They will 100% control Ireland IMO

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

They will 100% control Ireland IMO

No.

They will have a very large loan book.

cnocbui

Timing belt wrote: »

It has nothing to do with the government it’s a commercial decision where NatWest can sell ulster and use cash to develop online offering in the UK. The only way the government could be involved is if they bought ulster bank.

Ok,, but not the way I interpreted it:

While Ulster Bank has convinced the Central Bank of Ireland to allow it return €3.5 billion of surplus capital to NatWest in recent years, it is still being made to hold equity capital reserves equivalent to about 28 per cent of risk-weighted assets. That’s double what most banks, including NatWest, are targeting over the long term.

This has served to further suppress NatWest’s profit returns on the capital it has tied up in the Republic at a time when earnings are being squeezed amid low interest rates internationally and muted loan demand.

Timing belt

cnocbui wrote: »

Ok,, but not the way I interpreted it:

They need to hold that amount of capital because of historical losses and is not imposed by the Irish government. It comes from a EU Directive following recommendations from the bank of international settlement. Lets not forget that Natwest got bailed out by the UK government for the tune of 60bn and 15bn of that went to ulster bank which was huge considering the size of Ulster compared to Natwest.

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

“Ulster Bank set to exit Irish market after more than 160 yearsâ€

PropQueries wrote:

Ok. A couple of days of good debate coming here I reckon

Will this start a trend
Banks are getting hammered by low interest rates plus revolut plus risky mortgage market

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

Will this start a trend
Banks are getting hammered by low interest rates plus revolut plus risky mortgage market

None of the banks are making much money because of low interest rates and are cutting costs wherever they can. (I.e. redundancy).

Banks all over Europe need to consolidate but not much room in Ireland for banking consolidation.

Natwest should use the sale proceeds to buy a startup bank such as monzo or fin tech company to get a instant better online offering.

MacronvFrugals

from 2019, I imagine those folks would be interested in Ulster Bank loan books


Vulture fund adviser: "Ireland is the gift that keeps giving"

Link Group, which manages thousands of distressed mortgages for Cerberus Capital Management and other so-called vulture funds, has described Ireland as “the gift that keeps giving” and predicts that banks here could be forced to offload as many as eight more loan books over the next 18 months.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vulture-fund-adviser-ireland-is-the-gift-that-keeps-giving-jdxjhcvj0

Stark

If banks here would grow a pair and push more people to actually pay their mortgages, we might not need vulture funds and high interest rates.

Plenty of stories of people living in very lavish houses and making no attempt whatsoever to meet repayments. Force sell the house and make them live in an affordable apartment like the rest of us.

Cyrus

Stark wrote: »

If banks here would grow a pair and push more people to actually pay their mortgages, we might not need vulture funds and high interest rates.

Plenty of stories of people living in very lavish houses and making no attempt whatsoever to meet repayments. Force sell the house and make them live in an affordable apartment like the rest of us.

and there are probably more people in non lavish houses doing the same but the newspapers arent quite as interested in those :pac:

decreds

Seeing plenty of second-hand apartments hit the market in Dublin this week, most are asking below current market rate. Are we seeing more landlords leave the market?

The_Conductor

decreds wrote: »

Seeing plenty of second-hand apartments hit the market in Dublin this week, most are asking below current market rate. Are we seeing more landlords leave the market?

There are a large cohort of non-FTBs out there desperately trying to trade up or down- who have been excluded from the market for a while, who are also in the equation- however, yes, I imagine a sizable majority of the apartments hitting the market are landlords getting the hell out of the sector.........

jill_valentine

decreds wrote: »

Seeing plenty of second-hand apartments hit the market in Dublin this week, most are asking below current market rate. Are we seeing more landlords leave the market?

If one of them would hurry up and come into my area and price range in the next day or two, that would be just the job.

I would say it's landlords, yes, you're probably right. The extended lockdowns etc seem to have sunk in that this stuff isn't going away overnight, and landlords are likely the only ones in a position to sell given the circumstances.

Almost all the ones I'm seeing pop up are BidX1 though, so sadly no use to most. I don't think this is the first trickle of a dam bursting necessarily.

Stark

What's BidX1?

As an aside, a property I'm interested in (for the purposes of being my primary residence) is on auctioneera.ie . Not sure how sensible it is to buy a property through that route.

Villa05

Timing belt wrote:

None of the banks are making much money because of low interest rates and are cutting costs wherever they can. (I.e. redundancy).

Would the pensions/investment industry be in a similar predicament if returns of up to 3% expected to be the norm for the future

jill_valentine

Stark wrote: »

What's BidX1?

As an aside, a property I'm interested in (for the purposes of being my primary residence) is on auctioneera.ie . Not sure how sensible it is to buy a property through that route.

BidX1 auction properties in fairly big waves at a time, often sight unseen. There can sometimes be something funky going on with them, but you might not get a chance to check. Because of the auction rules you pretty much have to be a cash buyer and pay right away.

Auctioneera, despite the name, sell stuff by the traditional private treaty route it's just formatted like an auction from the buyer's point of view. I've only viewed with them once so far, grand but no frills as promised, you're left to your own devices and can mail in further queries after, the guy on site is basically a Deliveroo driver.

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

Would the pensions/investment industry be in a similar predicament if returns of up to 3% expected to be the norm for the future

If we stay in a low interest environment for a long time then companies will focus more on cost cutting as it will be easier to cut costs than grow income. With investments you will see people taking more risk to get a return and people will be less likely to invest in pensions as they will struggle to grow the pension pot and will have lower returns come retirement. All this makes property more attractive to invest in.

jim-mcdee

you would be mad not to buy now imo. rents are high and its much cheaper to buy. i was paying 1300pm and my mortgage on a similar place is 1100 and in 25 years ill own it

jill_valentine

jim-mcdee wrote: »

you would be mad not to buy now imo. rents are high and its much cheaper to buy. i was paying 1300pm and my mortgage on a similar place is 1100 and in 25 years ill own it

I mean... we'd all love to buy, it's not not-wanting to buy that's the problem I promise lol

Villa05

MacronvFrugals wrote:

Vulture fund adviser: "Ireland is the gift that keeps giving"

That's been said quiet a few times by different businesses. We are indeed a great country for business at the expense of citizens of course

Stark wrote:

If banks here would grow a pair and push more people to actually pay their mortgages, we might not need vulture funds and high interest rates.

Blocked politically, surprise

jim-mcdee wrote:

you would be mad not to buy now imo. rents are high and its much cheaper to buy. i was paying 1300pm and my mortgage on a similar place is 1100 and in 25 years ill own it

High rents are the gun to the head to buy now.

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

That's been said quiet a few times by different businesses. We are indeed a great country for business at the expense of citizens of course


Blocked politically, surprise






High rents are the gun to the head to buy now.

If the venture funds didn’t buy the debt from the banks the government would have had to pump billions more into them so they wouldn’t fail the ECB stress tests so don’t see how it is at the expense of citizens.

MacronvFrugals

Interesting article on the Australian market, i think we're giving the "juicing" a go to!

The Australian property market is booming but the gains are based on 'massive' debts

Dr Cameron Murray, a post-doctoral fellow at the Henry Halloran Trust at the University of Sydney, said what is happening in Australia has to be seen in a global context.

“Our macro-stabilisation policy works by juicing house prices,” Murray said.

“This is a policy most central banks have adopted. Secondly, we’re just at that point in the cycle. The best parallel to the situation now is 2004. I think we’re in a very similar phase right now. Sydney boomed early, then it tapered off. Then the rest of the country shot up for four years in line with the broad global house price cycle.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/16/the-australian-property-market-is-booming-but-the-gains-are-based-on-massive-debts

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

If the venture funds didn’t buy the debt from the banks the government would have had to pump billions more into them so they wouldn’t fail the ECB stress tests so don’t see how it is at the expense of citizens.

Or the banks could have repoed the properties and sold the security rather than the loan. And if they had done so in 08/9 when things turned to sh*t, they would not have had so many problem loans that they then needed to sell.

poker--addict

Stark wrote: »

What's BidX1?

As an aside, a property I'm interested in (for the purposes of being my primary residence) is on auctioneera.ie . Not sure how sensible it is to buy a property through that route.

Why?

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Or the banks could have repoed the properties and sold the security rather than the loan. And if they had done so in 08/9 when things turned to sh*t, they would not have had so many problem loans that they then needed to sell.

well it was sell the loans or sell a load of property, loans are probably easier sold.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

well it was sell the loans or sell a load of property, loans are probably easier sold.

Ireland was the gift that kept on giving to the vulture funds because the banks didn’t have much choice. I’ve no doubt they would have preferred to repossess and sell the properties.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Ireland was the gift that kept on giving to the vulture funds because the banks didn’t have much choice. I’ve no doubt they would have preferred to repossess and sell the properties.

maybe it would have been quite the undertaking,

personally id welcome easy repossession and non recourse lending, it would simplify things and make banks a lot more prudent in their lending.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

maybe it would have been quite the undertaking,

personally id welcome easy repossession and non recourse lending, it would simplify things and make banks a lot more prudent in their lending.

Quite the undertaking indeed, but no doubt preferable.

Agree with you on easy repos and non recourse lending. If I were housing minister that would be amongst the first changes I’d make.