2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

MacronvFrugals

Graham wrote: »

Reminds me of a 80s style low rise apartment block. I wouldn't have believed you could fit that many UPVC double glazing units into one building.

I wonder when it was built

optogirl

Reins wrote: »

Not singling you out but can you not rekonize that your'e part of the problem and this is why we are where we are..

Absolutely - we are constantly talking about how we are part of the panic bubble but fact remains we are paying high rent, in our 40s, with 2 kids. We have approval at the moment and want to buy

AdamD

That's some bond villain stuff

Nice views though

MacronvFrugals

Today's Examiner - Government urged to scrap new affordable housing Scheme

The Government has been called on to scrap its new affordable housing scheme.

The call comes after Dublin City Council's Fine Gael councillors wrote to the housing minister, urging him to scrap the shared equity scheme in the Government’s affordable housing plan

Even FG councilors want it scrapped!


https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40232786.html

Reins

Graham wrote: »

Following that logic, anybody bidding on a property ever is 'part of the problem'.

Agree. Should have worded it better and not said "Your'e".

People are just frantically bidding just to get first refusal making it twice as hard for anyone to secure a home.

Reins

Reins wrote: »

Agree. Should have worded it better and not said "Your'e".

People are just frantically bidding just to get first refusal making it twice as hard for anyone to secure a home.

Whats yr solution for an individual among many chasing their own home

Reins

optogirl wrote: »

Absolutely - we are constantly talking about how we are part of the panic bubble but fact remains we are paying high rent, in our 40s, with 2 kids. We have approval at the moment and want to buy

I hear you. I'm in the exact same boat.
Renting with 2 kids. I also want to buy but refuse to add to the maddness.
I may regret it!..

optogirl

Reins wrote: »

Agree. Should have worded it better and not said "Your'e".

People are just frantically bidding just to get first refusal making it twice as hard for anyone to secure a home.

How does my bidding on a house that I want to buy make it twice as hard for anyone to secure a home? First and foremost I am interested in securing myself a home.

Reins

optogirl wrote: »

How does my bidding on a house that I want to buy make it twice as hard for anyone to secure a home? First and foremost I am interested in securing myself a home.

This online bidding without viewing a property is sending prices through the roof making it bad for you me and any future purchaser. That's the issue. It wouldn't be as bad as it is if it was back at viewings.

Villa05

MacronvFrugals wrote:

Even FG councilors want it scrapped!

You really do wonder how we are governed. Do they not even talk to each other
We are a monty phyton movie

MacronvFrugals

Villa05 wrote: »

You really do wonder how we are governed. Do they not even talk to each other
We are a monty phyton movie

So literally everyone bar FF and the FG PP is against this

Officials from the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform, the Economic and Social Research Institute, and the Central Bank have all warned against the scheme, which they believe will push up house prices.

A scheme designed by lobbyists and will be pure banana republic stuff if implemented!

If it goes ahead there will be two breaches of the CBs 3.5/1 LTV ratio -

1) Rebuilding Ireland 5/1 LTV
2) Shared Equity 5/1 LTV

genericgoon

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Today's Examiner - Government urged to scrap new affordable housing Scheme



Even FG councilors want it scrapped!


https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40232786.html

And their big plan is to divert the money to a VAT cut (or perhaps FG's flagship Help-to-Buy scheme) which would mostly create higher developer profits for developments that would happen anyway.

Ironically, it feels like shared equity would be a more FG-type policy but FG having already done HTB, FF feel the need their own demand-side/"free money" policy they could claim as their own and this was the best they could come up with

Graham

Mod Note

some posts moved from Currently Buying thread.

Graham

Reins wrote: »

This online bidding without viewing a property is sending prices through the roof making it bad for you me and any future purchaser. That's the issue. It wouldn't be as bad as it is if it was back at viewings.

Do you think people are bidding more than they would have otherwise bid?

DataDude

Graham wrote: »

Do you think people are bidding more than they would have otherwise bid?

Interesting psychological experiment. Similar to cash vs card arguments.

Does the process of driving to location, viewing house, speaking with agent at site, follow-up call from estate agent, second viewing etc. cause people to be a little more cautious/inclined to find fault versus viewing a video online and clicking "bid" or making a call etc? No idea, but maybe the EA's have accidentally struck gold with this new way of doing things.

From a personal standpoint I know getting my approval on paper & driving to my first viewing was a much more nauseating experience than I expected it to be. Hard to say if it's impacted my psyche going forward.

Reins

Graham wrote: »

Do you think people are bidding more than they would have otherwise bid?

Yes I do.

I feel people are throwing any amount at a property to secure being the successful bidder just so they can view the property and change their minds later.

Meanwhile the property has reached an inflated price it wouldn't have achieved if viewings were in operation.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Interesting psychological experiment. Similar to cash vs card arguments.

Does the process of driving to location, viewing house, speaking with agent at site, follow-up call from estate agent, second viewing etc. cause people to be a little more cautious/inclined to find fault versus viewing a video online and clicking "bid" or making a call etc? No idea, but maybe the EA's have accidentally struck gold with this new way of doing things.

From a personal standpoint I know getting my approval on paper & driving to my first viewing was a much more nauseating experience than I expected it to be. Hard to say if it's impacted my psyche going forward.

I suspect it might be causing increased bidding - value and volume - because people view it as less binding. i.e they know they can go sale agreed and pull out when they see the house if they spot something they don't like.

Even though people have always been able to pull out after going sale agreed, i think the bids are likely to be firmer after physical viewings.

Graham

Reins wrote: »

Yes I do.

Only time will tell I guess.

Even if property prices have gone up during Level 5 restrictions would it be down to a psychological thing or your garden variety supply/demand economics? Maybe an element of both.

optogirl

schmittel wrote: »

I suspect it might be causing increased bidding - value and volume - because people view it as less binding. i.e they know they can go sale agreed and pull out when they see the house if they spot something they don't like.

Even though people have always been able to pull out after going sale agreed, i think the bids are likely to be firmer after physical viewings.

Yeah I agree. We have a maximum bid that we will not be going over (which probably means we wont be buying a house)

DataDude

schmittel wrote: »

I suspect it might be causing increased bidding - value and volume - because people view it as less binding. i.e they know they can go sale agreed and pull out when they see the house if they spot something they don't like.

Even though people have always been able to pull out after going sale agreed, i think the bids are likely to be firmer after physical viewings.

Yeah I think this is almost certainly true. Find it hard to imagine a scenario where this doesn't lead to an increase in the percentage of sale agreed's falling through. That said, there's also likely to be a subset of properties which maybe went above where they would have gone in a normal setting, and even with some doubt creeping in upon viewing that maybe they've slightly overpaid, a buyer might be minded to proceed anyway?

No experience of this, but I'd guess that going sale agreed and then taking the decision to pull the plug would be an emotional rollercoaster. Path of least resistance and all that...

Reins

DataDude wrote: »

Yeah I think this is almost certainly true. Find it hard to imagine a scenario where this doesn't lead to an increase in the percentage of sale agreed's falling through. That said, there's also likely to be a subset of properties which maybe went above where they would have gone in a normal setting, and even with some doubt creeping in upon viewing that maybe they've slightly overpaid, a buyer might be minded to proceed anyway?

No experience of this, but I'd guess that going sale agreed and then taking the decision to pull the plug would be an emotional rollercoaster. Path of least resistance and all that...

Originally Posted by Webster29 View Post

I'm currently selling and finding the process just as frustrating as buyers. I wouldn't trust someone bidding without seeing. You only ever buy a property if you can get a feel for it and see yourself living there. I would assume anyone who bids up will try to pull out or renegotiate once they see real life. I'd be fairly sure some of these bids are just people looking to be higher up the EAs list once viewings commence without making any real commitment.

(my reply was)

Couldn't agree more with you and I've posted about this being a nightmare for vendors.

An estate agent I know had 2 sales fall through last week within an hour of each other.
The scenario you suggest is what happened (imo)in the one I've mentioned.

hometruths

DataDude wrote: »

Yeah I think this is almost certainly true. Find it hard to imagine a scenario where this doesn't lead to an increase in the percentage of sale agreed's falling through. That said, there's also likely to be a subset of properties which maybe went above where they would have gone in a normal setting, and even with some doubt creeping in upon viewing that maybe they've slightly overpaid, a buyer might be minded to proceed anyway?

No experience of this, but I'd guess that going sale agreed and then taking the decision to pull the plug would be an emotional rollercoaster. Path of least resistance and all that...

Totally agree it will lead to both increased sales falling through and increased prices.

We're weighing this up at the moment from a sellers point of view. It's not easy from either side!

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The scenery is out of this world, the house reminds me of the hotel from The Shining

It’s a beautiful part of the country. That house is close to parknasilla. Very nice pace to life down there.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

How was it one sided
He had a developer, mortgage broker renters, owners etc
What relevant party was missing

Of course there is more competition, we are the country that keeps on giving to private business so much so that less than a 1/3 of new builds were made available for sale to the general public.
The general public can't compete against an entity that pays no tax and has access to free money and also government who are buying with taxes raised from workers priced out of the market

You might point me to a "leftie" politician that supports current housing policy
Even FG councillors are opposing shared equity
Buying existing housing in premium estates for social affordable is loose loose for everyone except developers
Taxpayer as the cost is far greater
Public as 4 to 5 houses could be provided for what the state is paying
The recipient as they are distanced from their support groups and often isolated from their neighbours

And not one of them was of the opinion there was no bubble, that is what the debate was about it was one sided they had no representation and were misleading in factual data. If they had someone on who believed we are not in a bubble they could of took him to task straight away with his absolute nonsense about credit not having anything to do with the bubble in 08.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I think the regular "not going to happen 2021, so its irrelevant" comments are a bit tedious.

i think the endless crystal ball gazing many years into the future in a thread that is titled 2021 Irish Property market chat is a bit tedious.

Graham

schmittel wrote: »

I think the regular "not going to happen 2021, so its irrelevant" comments are a bit tedious.

Mod Note

in which case please read the thread title again.

Feel free to start a separate thread if necessary.

Yurt2

cnocbui wrote: »

Why? What is the problem?

Nothing Cnocbui. It's all a big communist conspiracy. Everything's fine, go back to bed.

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

Mod Note

in which case please read the thread title again.

Feel free to start a separate thread if necessary.

No need to read it again. I started the thread and wrote the title.

Graham

schmittel wrote: »

No need to read it again. I started the thread.

changes nothing.

hometruths

So we can post prices are high/will go up in 2021 because supply is tight and that's OK because it is currently 2021?

But posting supply is tight in 2021 because X, Y, Z and that will change in future is not OK because the future is not 2021?

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

So we can post prices are high/will go up in 2021 because supply is tight and that's OK because it is currently 2021?

But posting supply is tight in 2021 because X, Y, Z and that will change in future is not OK because the future is not 2021?

You dont know if its going to change in the future no one does thats the point. Statments like what you said to me stating that the properties currently not available on the market that are empty will be put on the market soon..How do you know??

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

You dont know if its going to change in the future no one does thats the point

I know with absolute certainty that the current framework of taxes and legislation will change in the future. Some of it will change in 2021. Some in 2022. Some in 2023 and so on and so on.

And that was the point I was replying to.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

You dont know if its going to change in the future no one does thats the point. Statments like what you made to me stating that the properties currently not available on the market that are empty will be put on the market soon..How do you know??

Did I say soon or did I say "at some stage"?

schmittel wrote: »

There are hundreds of thousands of residential properties that are not "part of the current supply for one reason or another".

But they do exist. At some stage they will become part of the current supply for one reason or another.

I know they will come to the market at some stage because they are not going to vanish into thin air.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Did I say soon or did I say "at some stage"?



I know they will come to the market at some stage because they are not going to vanish into thin air.

How do you know? Could they be demolished for new builds, could the room over the shops be used by a shop keeper for storage?? You dont know. There must be some reason why they are not up for sale at present

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

How do you know? Could they be demolished for new builds, could the room over the shops be used by a shop keeper for storage?? You dont know. There must be some reason why they are not up for sale at present

They are not on the market for sale or rent at moment principally because of the current tax and legislative framework.

No one know what gonna happen in 2-3 months time ,not ECB,not other central banks and experts ! Only expectations which each time getting changed by situation.We expecting 3 per cent GDP rise in this year,2 months after they says,Oh,sorry,wrong,this will be below,so 1.5 per cent .
But nearly everybody here know that property prices in Ireland will be only rising.
Stunning ! Were are you getting knowledge from ?
I just reading what some of you are talking about and cant understand were you getting 100 per cent trustfully information about property will only rising and not falling !?

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Did I say soon or did I say "at some stage"?



I know they will come to the market at some stage because they are not going to vanish into thin air.

Just maybe they are coming back to the market as we speak and other properties are becoming vacant and we always have a stock of vacant properties....just maybe that part of our property market works like the rest of the world.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

Just maybe they are coming back to the market as we speak and other properties are becoming vacant and we always have a stock of vacant properties....just maybe that part of our property market works like the rest of the world.

Just maybe you didn't read, or understand, the point in question.

schmittel wrote: »

There are hundreds of thousands of residential properties that are not "part of the current supply for one reason or another".

But they do exist. At some stage they will become part of the current supply for one reason or another.

And when that happens, you will have your oversupply.

Vacancy is one reason. There are many others, precisely because our property market does not work like the rest of the world.

Just maybe.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I know with absolute certainty that the current framework of taxes and legislation will change in the future. Some of it will change in 2021. Some in 2022. Some in 2023 and so on and so on.

And that was the point I was replying to.

Given you have absolute certain you are you absolutely certain it will have an impact on the 2021 property market ?

Cyrus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No one know what gonna happen in 2-3 months time ,not ECB,not other central banks and experts ! Only expectations which each time getting changed by situation.We expecting 3 per cent GDP rise in this year,2 months after they says,Oh,sorry,wrong,this will be below,so 1.5 per cent .
But nearly everybody here know that property prices in Ireland will be only rising.
Stunning ! Were are you getting knowledge from ?
I just reading what some of you are talking about and cant understand were you getting 100 per cent trustfully information about property will only rising and not falling !?

Who is saying property prices are only rising ?

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Just maybe you didn't read, or understand, the point in question.



Vacancy is one reason. There are many others, precisely because our property market does not work like the rest of the world.

Just maybe.

Just maybe we do have a housing crisis and you are wrong when you say we don’t....just maybe

Cyrus

Timing belt wrote: »

Just maybe we do have a housing crisis and you are wrong when you say we don’t....just maybe

Schmittel appears to be working off the assumption that he is a lot smarter than the rest of us , if his point makes no sense it’s because we don’t understand not that he could be incorrect.

cnocbui

schmittel wrote: »

They are not on the market for sale or rent at moment principally because of the current tax and legislative framework.

Could you please detail the tax and legislative framework elements that disuade or prevent these going to market? What you assert is too vague for me to establish precisely what you mean or allege.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Given you have absolute certain you are you absolutely certain it will have an impact on the 2021 property market ?

The historic framework, current framework and future framework is already having an impact on the 2021 property market and will continue to do so. I am certain of that.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Schmittel appears to be working off the assumption that he is a lot smarter than the rest of us , if his point makes no sense it’s because we don’t understand not that he could be incorrect.

What part of what we're discussing makes no sense:

There are hundreds of thousands of residential properties that are not "part of the current supply for one reason or another".

But they do exist. At some stage they will become part of the current supply for one reason or another.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

Just maybe we do have a housing crisis and you are wrong when you say we don’t....just maybe

I don't believe I have ever said we do not have a current housing crisis. But no doubt you'll correct me if I am wrong.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

The historic framework, current framework and future framework is already having an impact on the 2021 property market and will continue to do so. I am certain of that.

How is a future undefined framework impacting the current market ?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

No need to read it again. I started the thread and wrote the title.

If you started the thread can you change the title?

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

What part of what we're discussing makes no sense:

Your certainty that these properties will come to the market in the future , you have no way of knowing if they will or not or if the level will remain consistent.

And anyway it has no relevance to this thread .

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

If you started the thread can you change the title?

Not sure if I can. What should I change it to?!