2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

cnocbui

Timing belt wrote: »

Just maybe we do have a housing crisis and you are wrong when you say we don’t....just maybe

I think he/she believes every owner of a shop with unoccupied room above it, has a spare €30K to hand to refurbish those rooms to domestic habitation standards.

Not to mention that those without the cash would all be willing to take on debt and take a punt on financial viability of the exercise.

Would they not need planning permission?

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Not sure if I can. What should I change it to?!

Random musings related to the Irish property market at no defined point in the future ?

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

Just maybe we do have a housing crisis and you are wrong when you say we don’t....just maybe

We may have a "housing crisis", but we definitely don't have a "housing shortage".

Remember all those evictions and queues of people seeking rental accommodation between 2013 and 2016.

Suddenly, after the vulture funds completed their purchase of c. €200billion in loans between 2012 and 2016, the media coverage of the evictions and queues near enough stopped.

In fact, I've seen very little coverage in the media of queues of people seeking rental accommodation over the past 3 years.

On the other hand, I've seen lots of media coverage of vacant apartments all over Dublin. I've also travelled all over Ireland over the past 3 years and there's still nothing but empty houses all over Ireland.

The funds have more than likely now got through the paperwork of what they bought and their properties will be entering the market in bulk in the very near future, interest rate rises or no interest rate rises IMO

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

How is a future undefined framework impacting the current market ?

A lot of (most I suspect) buyers and sellers in 2021 will consider potential future tax/legislation changes and implications as part of the decision making criteria.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

A lot of (most I suspect) buyers and sellers in 2021 will consider potential future tax/legislation changes and implications as part of the decision making criteria.

So what do you think datadude for example is thinking about the future legislative and tax framework with regard to his decision to buy a family home ?

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

They are not on the market for sale or rent at moment principally because of the current tax and legislative framework.

I dont disagree with tax and legislation as a deterrent to put property up for rent but not up for sale. Currently a lot of property on the market could be sold with the CGT exemptions yet they are not going up for sale. Like I say you seem to know the future that properties will be up available for sale or rent at some point in the future the question has to be asked why are they not up now with CGT taxes on some , rents through the roof and currently property prices are rising ..you would think we would have more up for sale than there currently is given those parameters , yet you know the properties currently empty and not for sale or rent will be coming on stream. How do you know this.

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

So what do you think datadude for example is thinking about the future legislative and tax framework with regard to his decision to buy a family home ?

I might actually be a bad example here because I have already factored in a change in tax and reduced my max budget for a house somewhat . Make spreadsheets for just about everything and have projected a 5% increase in marginal tax rate above €100k plus elimination of tax credits along with some other COVID related stuff e.g. no pay increases vs previously assumed 3% per annum in 2021 - 2023 and reduced bonus payment in those years.

I'm weird like that though and don't think I'm in anyway representative of most people. But it is crazy to me how people couldn't be worried about these things going forward. I guess if your income is lower then tax is unlikely to be an issue and your gross pay can only fall so much, but I strongly believe people on higher incomes need to be considering some "solidarity tax/USC 2.0". Not the Irish way though - "borrow as much as I can, get the house - payments? Will try to make them as best I can, but sure if I don't, they can't take the house anyway!"

EDIT - only read that post in isolation. Have now realized conversation wasn't really around personal taxation. Personally, I've lost all hope of any dramatic policy shifts in relation to housing from this government that would provide downward pressure on house prices. I think the opposite is more likely. I am kept awake at night at the possibility of this leading to a hard left government with subsequent policies affecting prices (and a lot of other things...). That prospect is both too far away and not certain enough to really impact my buying decisions today.

Reins

Deleted User wrote: »

Whats yr solution for an individual among many chasing their own home

Maybe wait until viewings can resume again.

All I know is that the current way is pushing prices up further which is bad news for anyone trying to buy.

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

That prospect is both too far away and not certain enough to really impact my buying decisions today.

Indeed and I’d imagine most are the same .

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

So what do you think datadude for example is thinking about the future legislative and tax framework with regard to his decision to buy a family home ?

He's reduced his max budget according to his post.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Not sure if I can. What should I change it to?!

Kerry holiday home hunting?

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

He's reduced his max budget according to his post.

Making an allowance for a change in income tax rates but we both know that’s not what you meant. And I’d class him as a relatively sophisticated buyer.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Making an allowance for a change in income tax rates but we both know that’s not what you meant. And I’d class him as a relatively sophisticated buyer.

So we have a sophisticated buyer who has "already factored in a change in tax and reduced my max budget for a house somewhat" and you are saying that this contradicts my point that "A lot of (most I suspect) buyers and sellers in 2021 will consider potential future tax/legislation changes and implications as part of the decision making criteria"??!!! :rolleyes:

PropQueries

Looks like the hotel sector will still add more than 4,000 beds in Dublin alone this year.

According to the SBP today: “More than 4,000 hotel beds to be completed in Dublin this year. New beds will increase existing stock in the capital of 24,000 by 17 per cent, according to Mitchell McDermott construction sector report.”

Hotel beds, student beds, luxury apartments, offices, data centres. We’re still building everything and anything but actual homes for families.

Link to SBP article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/more-than-4000-hotel-beds-to-be-completed-in-dublin-this-year-60e22ae0

decreds

Cyrus wrote: »

Who is saying property prices are only rising ?

The deniers with vested interest

cnocbui

decreds wrote: »

The deniers with vested interest

And the CSO, not that they matter a jot.

decreds

cnocbui wrote: »

And the CSO, not that they matter a jot.

At this stage i can't take anyone seriously who is adamant that prices are going to keep rising in the long term > 5 years, regardless of credentials/title/organization.


I'm not saying property prices will drop by a huge amount in the short term but with mass unemployment, biggest recession in history and SF coming into power in 2024, tis not looking good for the aul price rises.

fliball123

decreds wrote: »

At this stage i can't take anyone seriously who is adamant that prices are going to keep rising in the long term > 5 years, regardless of credentials/title/organization.


I'm not saying property prices will drop by a huge amount in the short term but with mass unemployment, biggest recession in history and SF coming into power in 2024, tis not looking good for the aul price rises.

Where are you getting mass unemployment? For god sakes can you and others predicting doom and gloom not see that the country is shut down , companies have been told to close. I have no doubt some wont reopen but the majority on pup will be going back to jobs they were doing in 2019. If you have any evidence of the contrary can you provide it?

SF will be an absolute joke if they get in they have promised the sun moon and stars and when they come up against the fact that the majority of the spend in this country is on public sector and welfare they will find out just how hard it is to take away what has been given. So cutting will be very hard, then on the tax when they find out how low we enter the higher tax bracket and understand that raising taxes higher on people already paying over 50% of every Euro earned at such a low rate the law of diminishing returns will squarely kneecap them. The room for tax raises on income is at the lower end of the spectrum where people earning under a certain threshold pay little or nothing but these people are SF main base. It will be actually funny watching them in power to be honest. Similar to a Trump it will be a sh1tshow or like a dog chasing a car, they go at it fiercely to try and get the car and when they get it they have no clue what to do and usually end up getting squashed

Did you copy and paste your last paragraph from 2020

optogirl

PropQueries wrote: »

Looks like the hotel sector will still add more than 4,000 beds in Dublin alone this year.

According to the SBP today: “More than 4,000 hotel beds to be completed in Dublin this year. New beds will increase existing stock in the capital of 24,000 by 17 per cent, according to Mitchell McDermott construction sector report.”

Hotel beds, student beds, luxury apartments, offices, data centres. We’re still building everything and anything but actual homes for families.

Link to SBP article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/more-than-4000-hotel-beds-to-be-completed-in-dublin-this-year-60e22ae0

The student accommodation really does my head in. Much better for students to live in a house with others and actually learn how to live with people. Proper houses can be used for both student accommodation and as family homes. These boxes for students are just depressing.

beggars_bush

PropQueries wrote: »

We may have a "housing crisis", but we definitely don't have a "housing shortage".

Remember all those evictions and queues of people seeking rental accommodation between 2013 and 2016.

Suddenly, after the vulture funds completed their purchase of c. €200billion in loans between 2012 and 2016, the media coverage of the evictions and queues near enough stopped.

In fact, I've seen very little coverage in the media of queues of people seeking rental accommodation over the past 3 years.

On the other hand, I've seen lots of media coverage of vacant apartments all over Dublin. I've also travelled all over Ireland over the past 3 years and there's still nothing but empty houses all over Ireland.

The funds have more than likely now got through the paperwork of what they bought and their properties will be entering the market in bulk in the very near future, interest rate rises or no interest rate rises IMO

Where are all these empty houses?

fliball123

beggars_bush wrote: »

Where are all these empty houses?

This is the hundred billion dollar question. Some posters on here seem to think we have an abundance of supply, over 100k according to some. They are including properties that have succumbed to being abolished and not counted out as such, some are not habitable yet kept in the count, some were counted as empty when the census was done so included in the empties even do they are not, some are holiday homes so someone actually owns them and uses them so they are not part of supply and some are rooms over shops that some feel are worthy of being included in this count. Yet when the question of why the hell are they not up for sale or rent when we are experiencing a price rise in property or up for rent when rents are very high they have no answer except tax and legislation. Which I actually agree with when it comes to property being held by REITS and hedge funds, these companies can afford to lose profits now if they get more in the long run. But some think this wave of property will be hitting the market in the near future..Careful bring your umbrella it might be raining apartments and sheds soon

optogirl

optogirl wrote: »

The student accommodation really does my head in. Much better for students to live in a house with others and actually learn how to live with people. Proper houses can be used for both student accommodation and as family homes. These boxes for students are just depressing.

Student accommodation is brilliant. They have single and double bedrooms and a certain amount of bedrooms share kitchen and sitting rooms.
If anything they share with more people then living in 3 bed semis or 2 bed apartments

Yurt2

fliball123 wrote: »

Where are you getting mass unemployment? For god sakes can you and others predicting doom and gloom not see that the country is shut down , companies have been told to close. I have no doubt some wont reopen but the majority on pup will be going back to jobs they were doing in 2019. If you have any evidence of the contrary can you provide it?

SF will be an absolute joke if they get in they have promised the sun moon and stars and when they come up against the fact that the majority of the spend in this country is on public sector and welfare they will find out just how hard it is to take away what has been given. So cutting will be very hard, then on the tax when they find out how low we enter the higher tax bracket and understand that raising taxes higher on people already paying over 50% of every Euro earned at such a low rate the law of diminishing returns will squarely kneecap them. The room for tax raises on income is at the lower end of the spectrum where people earning under a certain threshold pay little or nothing but these people are SF main base. It will be actually funny watching them in power to be honest. Similar to a Trump it will be a sh1tshow or like a dog chasing a car, they go at it fiercely to try and get the car and when they get it they have no clue what to do and usually end up getting squashed

Did you copy and paste your last paragraph from 2020

I love your optimism.

imfml

Has anybody travelled outside 5km to view a property? Would it be considered non essential?

jill_valentine

optogirl wrote: »

The student accommodation really does my head in. Much better for students to live in a house with others and actually learn how to live with people. Proper houses can be used for both student accommodation and as family homes. These boxes for students are just depressing.

I live in the middle of a load of it. The student thing is a figleaf, they're Airbnbs.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

This is the hundred billion dollar question. Some posters on here seem to think we have an abundance of supply, over 100k according to some. They are including properties that have succumbed to being abolished and not counted out as such, some are not habitable yet kept in the count, some were counted as empty when the census was done so included in the empties even do they are not, some are holiday homes so someone actually owns them and uses them so they are not part of supply and some are rooms over shops that some feel are worthy of being included in this count. Yet when the question of why the hell are they not up for sale or rent when we are experiencing a price rise in property or up for rent when rents are very high they have no answer except tax and legislation. Which I actually agree with when it comes to property being held by REITS and hedge funds, these companies can afford to lose profits now if they get more in the long run. But some think this wave of property will be hitting the market in the near future..Careful bring your umbrella it might be raining apartments and sheds soon

It’s actually the €200 Billion question

According to the RTÉ documentary in January 2017 called The Great Irish Sell-Off, the vulture funds “control 90,000 mortgages AND €200 billion in property and business loans in the country”

To put that figure in perspective, Ires REIT only has a market cap of less than €1billion.

And that’s only what they bought between 2012 and 2016. God know how much they’ve bought or control since then.

It’s the elephant in the room that everyone seems to be ignoring. But once it wakes up, we won’t be able to ignore it IMO

It’s still on the RTÉ Player or you can read the Irish Times review of it here:

https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/the-great-irish-sell-off-turning-the-spotlight-on-ireland-s-vulture-capitalists-1.2931597

fliball123

Yurt! wrote: »

I love your optimism.

Optimism or not the government has put in place financial supports for companies that have been forced to closed and PUP and other payments to employees who are not working. I would hazard a guess they would not of done that if they were not counting on the majority of the closed companies reopening and for the majority of employees on support going back to work. Could they be that stupid to be paying all this time only for a tsunami of companies to go bankrupt and then have to pay out again for redundancies. But maybe I give them too much credit. We will have to wait and see when covid is a thing of the past. What we can see are there have been a number of new jobs coming in both private and public sector so once covid is gone we will have to see where we are.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

It’s actually the €200 Billion question

According to the RTÉ documentary in January 2017 called The Great Irish Sell-Off, the vulture funds “control 90,000 mortgages AND €200 billion in property and business loans in the country”

To put that figure in perspective, Ires REIT only has a market cap of less than €1billion.

And that’s only what they bought between 2012 and 2016. God know how much they’ve bought or control since then.

It’s the elephant in the room that everyone seems to be ignoring. But once it wakes up, we won’t be able to ignore it IMO

It’s still on the RTÉ Player or you can read the Irish Times review of it here:

https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/the-great-irish-sell-off-turning-the-spotlight-on-ireland-s-vulture-capitalists-1.2931597

Surely this elephant will cause prices to go up as it lessens supply?

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

I don't believe I have ever said we do not have a current housing crisis. But no doubt you'll correct me if I am wrong.

Graham

fliball123 wrote: »

Surely this elephant will cause prices to go up as it lessens supply?

I'm not convinced a bunch of investment funds buying bundles of mortgages does reduce supply.

I'm not convinced it does much of anything other than maybe change direct debit details for the people paying those mortgages.

For some reason Props is convinced that by buying the mortgages these investment companies suddenly own the properties.

bilbot79

imfml wrote: »

Has anybody travelled outside 5km to view a property? Would it be considered non essential?

Debatable. You can travel in relation to a house move within the regulations...

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

Optimism or not the government has put in place financial supports for companies that have been forced to closed and PUP and other payments to employees who are not working. I would hazard a guess they would not of done that if they were not counting on the majority of the closed companies reopening and for the majority of employees on support going back to work. Could they be that stupid to be paying all this time only for a tsunami of companies to go bankrupt and then have to pay out again for redundancies. But maybe I give them too much credit. We will have to wait and see when covid is a thing of the past. What we can see are there have been a number of new jobs coming in both private and public sector so once covid is gone we will have to see where we are.

A line I found interesting in the plan published by the government today. To me this looks like a bit of a euphemism. Reading between the lines I see it as ‘we know we’re keeping a load of zombie companies alive on life support and we really need these to close down and reinvent themselves as something new’. Sounds like at least some short term pain expected. Maybe someone else has a different interpretation.

‘ From an economic perspective, it is also worth highlighting that generalised (rather than targeted supports) hamper the necessary reallocation process (firms and workers need to transition from declining to expanding sectors) and distort work incentives. This means that once the economy has re-opened, supports must become more targeted (also taking into account the fact that household income has actually increased during the pandemic due to transfers from the general government sector).’

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

So we have a sophisticated buyer who has "already factored in a change in tax and reduced my max budget for a house somewhat" and you are saying that this contradicts my point that "A lot of (most I suspect) buyers and sellers in 2021 will consider potential future tax/legislation changes and implications as part of the decision making criteria"??!!! :rolleyes:

Another roll eyes, we both know and datadude also alluded to it, that’s not what you meant but persist with it if it makes you feel a little better .

fliball123

DataDude wrote: »

A line I found interesting in the plan published by the government today. To me this looks like a bit of a euphemism. Reading between the lines I see it as ‘we know we’re keeping a load of zombie companies alive on life support and we really need these to close down and reinvent themselves as something new’. Sounds like at least some short term pain expected. Maybe someone else has a different interpretation.

‘ From an economic perspective, it is also worth highlighting that generalised (rather than targeted supports) hamper the necessary reallocation process (firms and workers need to transition from declining to expanding sectors) and distort work incentives. This means that once the economy has re-opened, supports must become more targeted (also taking into account the fact that household income has actually increased during the pandemic due to transfers from the general government sector).’

Well if the place was going to be hitting the skids I really do not think over 16k jobs would of been created in 2020. That is the reason why I am optimistic. Look its guess work no one knows how Covid will play out with regard to the live register.

Cyrus

decreds wrote: »

The deniers with vested interest

The deniers of what ?

Seriously who are these people that are talking the market up ? Unless you are referring to those of us that dare to argue against the doomsayers ?

But I don’t see any posters pointing to any sort of material price increases .

Milena009

bilbot79 wrote: »

Debatable. You can travel in relation to a house move within the regulations...

Very much depends on gardai you meet
My friend went to see a house, pre going sale agreed and no problems whatsoever on clondalkin side of m50

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

I'm not convinced a bunch of investment funds buying bundles of mortgages does reduce supply.

I'm not convinced it does much of anything other than maybe change direct debit details for the people paying those mortgages.

For some reason Props is convinced that by buying the mortgages these investment companies suddenly own the properties.

They bought 90,000 mortgages AND €200 billion in property and business loans between 2012 and 2016.

I’ll agree the mortgages are meaningless but it’s the other €200 billion in property and business loans they purchased that I’m interested in. And that was only between 2012 and 2016.

The banks and NAMA weren’t selling off many solvent property and business loans.

So, now we have a few American funds who probably control the majority of those investment properties and land banks that were purchased in the latter years of the Celtic Tiger.

And, outside of one documentary on RTÉ in January 2017, there’s been no real analysis of what they they bought and now control.

I would put it at a much greater potential risk to the Irish economy than shadow banking is to the world economy IMO

We basically have a few CEOs in boardrooms in the United States with their finger on the trigger of the Irish property market.

If only one of them gets cold feet, it’s armageddon for the Irish property market IMO

Timing belt

DataDude wrote: »

A line I found interesting in the plan published by the government today. To me this looks like a bit of a euphemism. Reading between the lines I see it as ‘we know we’re keeping a load of zombie companies alive on life support and we really need these to close down and reinvent themselves as something new’. Sounds like at least some short term pain expected. Maybe someone else has a different interpretation.

‘ From an economic perspective, it is also worth highlighting that generalised (rather than targeted supports) hamper the necessary reallocation process (firms and workers need to transition from declining to expanding sectors) and distort work incentives. This means that once the economy has re-opened, supports must become more targeted (also taking into account the fact that household income has actually increased during the pandemic due to transfers from the general government sector).’

I think a lot depends on when the economy opens up in relation to the rest of the world. Even if this date was known companies could start planning, marketing etc to take full advantage of it.

What I think will happen is that you will end up with a divided country whereby people not impacted make up for wasted time and people impacted get back to work to provide services to this cohort. There will be a lot of jobs and businesses gone for good and banks will take a hit as a result and after a few months of partying the hangover will set in and reality will need to be dealt with and it will see many false starts for the economy but eventually get back to normal.

I don’t see the roaring 20’s but do see mega bonuses for an elite few as billions have been made with little effort thanks to asset prices booming.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Another roll eyes, we both know and datadude also alluded to it, that’s not what you meant but persist with it if it makes you feel a little better .

One of the reasons small time landlords are leaving/not entering the market is due to income tax rates.

Of course income tax is included in what I meant in a buyer considering potential future tax/legislation changes. Obtuse at best to insinuate otherwise.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

One of the reasons small time landlords are leaving/not entering the market is due to income tax rates.

Of course income tax is included in what I meant in a buyer considering potential future tax/legislation changes. Obtuse at best to insinuate otherwise.

No it’s not or it shouldn’t be

How many landlords have left the market in the past three years?

Now work backwards on the real reasons for the very small reduction in the number of registered landlords:

1. Celtic tiger property investors where their property has finally exited negative equity selling.

2. Landlords who bought between 2012 and 2014 and could only sell after 6 years in order to avail of he CGT exemption.

3. if a landlord with one property sells to another landlord with three properties, the number of registered landlords has fallen by 50%, but the number of rental properties in the market is exactly as before.

4. And finally I just came across this. According to DCC and it’s long term lease initiative, when a property owner signs up, DCC is the landlord, not the property owner. Again, the number of registered landlords falls, but the number of rental properties available is the same as before.

Absolutely nothing, zero, nada to do with income taxes

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

They bought 90,000 mortgages AND €200 billion in property and business loans between 2012 and 2016.

I’ll agree the mortgages are meaningless but it’s the other €200 billion in property and business loans they purchased that I’m interested in. And that was only between 2012 and 2016.

The banks and NAMA weren’t selling off many solvent property and business loans.

So, now we have a few American funds who probably control the majority of those investment properties and land banks that were purchased in the latter years of the Celtic Tiger.

And, outside of one documentary on RTÉ in January 2017, there’s been no real analysis of what they they bought and now control.

I would put it at a much greater potential risk to the Irish economy than shadow banking is to the world economy IMO

We basically have a few CEOs in boardrooms in the United States with their finger on the trigger of the Irish property market.

If only one of them gets cold feet, it’s armageddon for the Irish property market IMO

Surely the UK must be worried as a large portion of the Nama debt was for Uk lending as they held majority of the non-Irish debt/property that accounts for 47% of the total Nama debt/property

PropQueries

For everyone hoping that Ireland will get lucky again during the upcoming negotiations on the OECD global tax reforms, the FT has just reported that:

“UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak will use the election of Joe Biden as partial cover for a big Budget increase in corporation tax rates, arguing that the US president is also planning a hike in business taxes.”

If these tax reforms don’t go our way, how long do people believe the American funds who control our property market will stay around for?

Link to FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/55f9d53f-b100-4073-814b-156cc6729040

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

If these tax reforms don’t go our way, how long do people believe the American funds who control our property market will stay around for?

I don't think the REITs are here for low corporation tax.

If the companies that hold the mortgages decide to move on, they'll sell the mortgages to another party.

If corporation taxes increase globally that would surely be good for us given the number of international companies based here and our new increased tax take.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

For everyone hoping that Ireland will get lucky again during the upcoming negotiations on the OECD global tax reforms, the FT has just reported that:

“UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak will use the election of Joe Biden as partial cover for a big Budget increase in corporation tax rates, arguing that the US president is also planning a hike in business taxes.”

If these tax reforms don’t go our way, how long do people believe the American funds who control our property market will stay around for?

Link to FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/55f9d53f-b100-4073-814b-156cc6729040

Biden is not going to raise taxes unless very strong economic recovery...even his own party would stop him...even all the pro democrat news have being saying that it won’t happen unless we see the economy boom to do so otherwise would be worse than the Irish government guaranteeing every bank deposit.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

One of the reasons small time landlords are leaving/not entering the market is due to income tax rates.

Of course income tax is included in what I meant in a buyer considering potential future tax/legislation changes. Obtuse at best to insinuate otherwise.

Well nothing has materially changed with income tax for years , so how does this support your thesis of all of these properties out there coming onto the market and solving the apparent shortage issues ?

Obtuse is on the money .

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

For everyone hoping that Ireland will get lucky again during the upcoming negotiations on the OECD global tax reforms, the FT has just reported that:

“UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak will use the election of Joe Biden as partial cover for a big Budget increase in corporation tax rates, arguing that the US president is also planning a hike in business taxes.”

If these tax reforms don’t go our way, how long do people believe the American funds who control our property market will stay around for?

Link to FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/55f9d53f-b100-4073-814b-156cc6729040

I really hope the oecd comes through for you , you’ve gone big on this one in particular.

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

I don't think the REITs are here for low corporation tax.

If the companies that hold the mortgages decide to move on, they'll sell the mortgages to another party.

If corporation taxes increase globally that would surely be good for us given the number of international companies based here and our new increased tax take.

Once again

The €200 billion they purchased between 2012 and 2016 were not mortgages. They were property and business loans and obviously mostly property loans.

Ires Reit has a market cap of less than a €1billion so would account, at a maximum, for less than 0.5% of that €200 billion figure. Say even €100 billion of the rest is due to UK loans etc, (it’s not anywhere near that figure though), that still leaves us with at least over €100 billion they bought in Ireland between 2012 and 2016.

I’m not worried about the corporate tax rises in the UK and the USA. I’m worried they will close off every single tax loophole which is why multinationals are here.

No multinationals, no jobs. No jobs, no workers. No workers, no demand for housing. That is, the American funds who control our property market sell up and leave.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

I really hope the oecd comes through for you , you’ve gone big on this one in particular.

Don’t blame the messenger

I’m actually a great help to existing landlords and property investors. If I’m right, shouldn’t our fellow Irish property investors make their move before the funds do?

Once the funds make their move, it’s too late IMO

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

They were property and business loans and obviously mostly property loans

PropQueries wrote: »

that still leaves us with at least over €100 billion they bought in Ireland between 2012 and 2016.

Even accepting the beermat estimates, an exit would mean the loans got sold on. I don't see the major impact.

I also don't buy the corporation exodus if our corporation tax rates go up in line with a global increase.

We'd no doubt lose some of the virtual/shell operations in the IFSC but outside of that I think we still have enough going for us that the handful of losses would be mitigated by our larger corporation tax take.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Don’t blame the messenger

I’m actually a great help to existing landlords and property investors. If I’m right, shouldn’t our fellow Irish property investors make their move before the funds do?

Once the funds make their move, it’s too late IMO

Well I have no property investments so I’m safe but I’m also pretty sure the results of the global tax reform won’t have anything like the impact that you believe it will either.