2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Once again

The €200 billion they purchased between 2012 and 2016 were not mortgages. They were property and business loans and obviously mostly property loans.

Ires Reit has a market cap of less than a €1billion so would account, at a maximum, for less than 0.5% of that €200 billion figure. Say even €100 billion of the rest is due to UK loans etc, (it’s not anywhere near that figure though), that still leaves us with at least over €100 billion they bought in Ireland between 2012 and 2016.

I’m not worried about the corporate tax rises in the UK and the USA. I’m worried they will close off every single tax loophole which is why multinationals are here.

No multinationals, no jobs. No jobs, no workers. No workers, no demand for housing. That is, the American funds who control our property market sell up and leave.

Irish housing stock is about 1.8m 1/3 of people rent. If you assume 50% of these are owned by government and 50% by funds then you get to about 100bn assuming avg house being 350k. So we are talking about c 300,000 properties in Ireland. So why will they sell and leave all at once? And won’t another fund just buy the property so it has zero impact or are you saying no-one will buy them because they will get a better return elsewhere?

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

Even accepting the beermat estimates, an exit would mean the loans got sold on. I don't see the major impact.

I also don't buy the corporation exodus if our corporation tax rates go up in line with a global increase.

We'd no doubt lose some of the virtual/shell operations in the IFSC but outside of that I think we still have enough going for us that the handful of losses would be mitigated by our larger corporation tax take.

So the American and UK governments are going to increase their corporation taxes and still allow the Googles etc. to keep pretending that they makes all their worldwide profits outside the United States in Ireland?

Possible but highly unlikely IMO

We can increase corporation taxes all we like. But 90% of zero is still zero.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

So the American and UK governments are going to increase their corporation taxes and still allow the Googles etc. to keep pretending that they makes all their worldwide profits outside the United States in Ireland?

Possible but highly unlikely IMO

We can increase corporation taxes all we like. But 90% of zero is still zero.

Google pretends it makes all its profits in Ireland? That’s a misnomer and a half .

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

Irish housing stock is about 1.8m 1/3 of people rent. If you assume 50% of these are owned by government and 50% by funds then you get to about 100bn assuming avg house being 350k. So we are talking about c 300,000 properties in Ireland. So why will they sell and leave all at once? And won’t another fund just buy the property so it has zero impact or are you saying no-one will buy them because they will get a better return elsewhere?

I reckon their exit strategy will be to first ask the government what they want to buy and then flog the rest on MyHome at c. 25% of current market prices.

Given what they probably initially purchased them for, they’ll probably still walk away with double their initial investment IMO

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

Google pretends it makes all its profits in Ireland? That’s a misnomer and a half .

Said outside the states

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

So the American and UK governments are going to increase their corporation taxes and still allow the Googles etc. to keep pretending that they makes all their worldwide profits outside the United States in Ireland?

Possible but highly unlikely IMO

We can increase corporation taxes all we like. But 90% of zero is still zero.

UK and USA designed most of the international tax loop holes. Even China has its version of Vegas to get funds out and into other countries to avail of tax loopholes....The OECD is a smoke screen and as effective as a chocolate tea pot.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

UK and USA designed most of the international tax loop holes. Even China has its version of Vegas to get funds out and into other countries to avail of tax loopholes....The OECD is a smoke screen and as effective as a chocolate tea pot.

Maybe we’re entering a new era?

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

I reckon their exit strategy will be to first ask the government what they want to buy and then flog the rest on MyHome at c. 25% of current market prices.

Given what they probably initially purchased them for, they’ll probably still walk away with double their initial investment IMO

Another fund would buy...the properties change hands regularly and loads of institutional investors out there.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe we’re entering a new era?

Maybe... let’s wait and watch to see if Biden closes all the loopholes in his home state of Delaware... the uk closes tax loopholes with BVI, CI, IOM... oh wait that’s not happening because everyone is using the loopholes.

It would be hard to find a property on the high streets in London that is not registered to a company/fund/trust in one of these locations.

Lobbying and political donations would need stop if they were ever serious as to much money in play.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

Maybe... let’s wait and watch to see if Biden closes all the loopholes in his home state of Delaware... the uk closes tax loopholes with BVI, CI, IOM... oh wait that’s not happening because everyone is using the loopholes.

It would be hard to find a property on the high streets in London that is not registered to a company/fund/trust in one of these locations.

Lobbying and political donations would need stop if they were ever serious as to much money in play.

Some good points. But as you say, there’s too much money at play and by that I mean the UK and US debt levels.

I’m sure they would have no problem throwing countries like Ireland under a bus.

Biden may keep the Delaware loopholes but at the same time he may also prefer if Google hired the 8,000 staff they apparently employ in Dublin in his home state instead?

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Some good poinuts. But as you say, there’s too much money at play and by that I mean the UK and US debt levels.

I’m sure they would have no problem throwing countries like Ireland under a bus.

Biden may keep the Delaware loopholes but at the same time he may also prefer if Google hired the 8,000 staff they apparently employ in Dublin in his home state instead?

I think it safe to say that the money that got him into office would prefer it the jobs in Dublin...

MacronvFrugals

Timing belt wrote: »

Maybe... let’s wait and watch to see if Biden closes all the loopholes in his home state of Delaware... the uk closes tax loopholes with BVI, CI, IOM... oh wait that’s not happening because everyone is using the loopholes.

It would be hard to find a property on the high streets in London that is not registered to a company/fund/trust in one of these locations.

Lobbying and political donations would need stop if they were ever serious as to much money in play.

There’s a normal gaf in Drumcondra with 125 companies registered there, was in the Panama Papers a few years back.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

I think it safe to say that the money that got him into office would prefer it the jobs in Dublin...

I actually think it would be in his donors interests for those jobs to be back in the states and take a relatively small hit now.

The next version of Trump may not be so friendly towards these groups.

bilbot79

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

There’s a normal gaf in Drumcondra with 125 companies registered there, was in the Panama Papers a few years back.

St Luke's no doubt 😂

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

and then flog the rest on MyHome at c. 25% of current market prices.

I can imagine that particular board meeting.

So folks, we're thinking of exiting the Irish market. What do you reckon to just selling it all off for a quarter of its value? Obviously we could get 4 times that amount but is that what we really want. Show of hands.........

Seriously props, it's just silly.

Graham

bilbot79 wrote: »

St Luke's no doubt ��

ok, I'll admit it. I laughed.

I've no idea where in St Luke's you'd fit 125 brass name plates though.

AdamD

PropQueries wrote: »

Some good points. But as you say, there’s too much money at play and by that I mean the UK and US debt levels.

I’m sure they would have no problem throwing countries like Ireland under a bus.

Biden may keep the Delaware loopholes but at the same time he may also prefer if Google hired the 8,000 staff they apparently employ in Dublin in his home state instead?

Trump would have liked that too. As would have Obama. Yet here we are, bigger than ever.

cnocbui

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

There’s a normal gaf in Drumcondra with 125 companies registered there, was in the Panama Papers a few years back.

When the EU was trying to set a standard requiring ownership transparency of trusts, such that no matter the chain of hidey hole company names and lawyers offices, the true owners of the trust and the assets had to be revealed, Ireland objected strongly and voted against.

This country is one of the worst EU citizens and is almost a rogue state. While ordinary people can't open bank accounts because of the ludicrous know your customer boll0cks, supposedly there to stop money laundering, the government does it's best to facilitate huge companies in avoiding paying tax anywhere and the rich in hiding their wealth and assets and doing likewise.

The place runs on double standards and hypocrisy and goes to great lengths in protecting criminals and wrongdoers - the church - from answering for their crimes and hiding unpleasant truths from sight and scrutiny - sealing mothers and babies in deep holes and filling them in.

But the craics great.

MacronvFrugals

cnocbui wrote: »

When the EU was trying to set a standard requiring ownership transparency of trusts, such that no matter the chain of hidey hole company names and lawyers offices, the true owners of the trust and the assets had to be revealed, Ireland objected strongly and voted against.

This country is one of the worst EU citizens and is almost a rogue state. While ordinary people can't open bank accounts because of the ludicrous know your customer boll0cks, supposedly there to stop money laundering, the government does it's best to facilitate huge companies in avoiding paying tax anywhere and the rich in hiding their wealth and assets and doing likewise.

The place runs on double standards and hypocrisy and goes to great lengths in protecting criminals and wrongdoers - the church - from answering for their crimes and hiding unpleasant truths from sight and scrutiny - sealing mothers and babies in deep holes and filling them in.

But the craics great.

Would you not just put on the green jersey cnoc?

Timing belt

cnocbui wrote: »

When the EU was trying to set a standard requiring ownership transparency of trusts, such that no matter the chain of hidey hole company names and lawyers offices, the true owners of the trust and the assets had to be revealed, Ireland objected strongly and voted against.

This country is one of the worst EU citizens and is almost a rogue state. While ordinary people can't open bank accounts because of the ludicrous know your customer boll0cks, supposedly there to stop money laundering, the government does it's best to facilitate huge companies in avoiding paying tax anywhere and the rich in hiding their wealth and assets and doing likewise.

The place runs on double standards and hypocrisy and goes to great lengths in protecting criminals and wrongdoers - the church - from answering for their crimes and hiding unpleasant truths from sight and scrutiny - sealing mothers and babies in deep holes and filling them in.

But the craics great.

To be fair the same could be said about most countries...take UK for example it let’s it’s offshore centers operate for loopholes and the uk facilitate’s legal laundering of cash from Russia, China etc.....it protected child abusers for years and helped cover it up... it even had its own mothers and babies scandal

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/10/mps-demand-apology-for-unmarried-mothers-forced-to-give-up-children

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

They bought 90,000 mortgages AND €200 billion in property and business loans between 2012 and 2016.

I’ll agree the mortgages are meaningless but it’s the other €200 billion in property and business loans they purchased that I’m interested in. And that was only between 2012 and 2016.

The banks and NAMA weren’t selling off many solvent property and business loans.

So, now we have a few American funds who probably control the majority of those investment properties and land banks that were purchased in the latter years of the Celtic Tiger.

And, outside of one documentary on RTÉ in January 2017, there’s been no real analysis of what they they bought and now control.

I would put it at a much greater potential risk to the Irish economy than shadow banking is to the world economy IMO

We basically have a few CEOs in boardrooms in the United States with their finger on the trigger of the Irish property market.

If only one of them gets cold feet, it’s armageddon for the Irish property market IMO

They bought mortgages in that bundle and if they are mortgages on a home that is owned and lived in by someone it will be hard as hell for them to stake a claim in that property. You have been screaming Armageddon now for almost a year now and still no sign of it and in that time we have seen lock down after lockdown and brexit come and go and guess what still no Armageddon Your like the boy who cried wolf when it does actually happen anyone following you on here wont believe it as you have been spouting it so long and so loudly

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I reckon their exit strategy will be to first ask the government what they want to buy and then flog the rest on MyHome at c. 25% of current market prices.

Given what they probably initially purchased them for, they’ll probably still walk away with double their initial investment IMO

haha your comedy gold Props so taking a 75% drop brilliant..You have some good points the odd time , a lot of spin, conjecture and some badly thought out arguments and then you have this IMO 75% drop...This is your downfall you have only your opinion to back it up. I snorted the cornflakes from my nose when I read it

fliball123

Timing belt wrote: »

Another fund would buy...the properties change hands regularly and loads of institutional investors out there.

You only have to look at Ulster bank and already they have buyers interested in their loan/mortgage portfolio. Props your delusion is getting deeper by the day. If I thought like you I would be gone from Ireland as soon as its safe to do so

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

haha your comedy gold Props so taking a 75% drop brilliant..You have some good points the odd time , a lot of spin, conjecture and some badly thought out arguments and then you have this IMO 75% drop...This is your downfall you have only your opinion to back it up. I snorted the cornflakes from my nose when I read it

I'm glad I brightened up your morning

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm glad I brightened up your morning

You do although your posts and eating cornflakes are a dangerous combo

Villa05

fliball123 wrote: »

And not one of them was of the opinion there was no bubble, that is what the debate was about it was one sided they had no representation and were misleading in factual data. If they had someone on who believed we are not in a bubble they could of took him to task straight away with his absolute nonsense about credit not having anything to do with the bubble in 08.

What does misleading in factual data mean? Can you give some examples please?


Where did you see that McWilliams claimed or entertained the idea that credit had nothing to do with bubble in 08? He had been warning about it for some years prior to the bust.


and you appear to have forgotten my previous question

Where are the leftie politicians that are pushing for social housing to be purchased from the private market at huge cost?


This is an important point as after the last bust Government excuses was that the opposition was calling for more spending. There is a considerable differece between more spending and smarter spending

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

What does misleading in factual data mean? Can you give some examples please?


Where did you see that McWilliams claimed or entertained the idea that credit had nothing to do with bubble in 08? He had been warning about it for some years prior to the bust.


and you appear to have forgotten my previous question

Where are the leftie politicians that are pushing for social housing to be purchased from the private market at huge cost?


This is an important point as after the last bust Government excuses was that the opposition was calling for more spending. There is a considerable differece between more spending and smarter spending

Factual data as in he spun the 08 recession in a way that would have everyone watching believing that cheap and easy access to credit had nothing whatsoever to do with blowing up the bubble pre 08. He said it over and over he had the opinion that even without the cheap credit the bubble would of still blown up . Watch it again he says it a number of times through the debate and the other nodding dogs in the audience just agreeing.

This is wrong and has been proven wrong and in hindsight of both 2008 and 2017 (when the show was created). If you take the last year 2020/2021 a period of time with demand through the roof and supply very poor, throw in the various government incentives that had existed and created just recently for buyers along with a huge increase in competition both locally with our government procuring property for the less fortunate and a huge increase in foreigners buying via REITS and vulture funds therefore more competition than ever, all of those ingredients should of pushed prices up way higher. Yet here we are still a good 20% off the highest price point of of 07. This is mainly due to people not being able to borrow the same high amounts pre-08 and the added checks and cop on the banks are showing by not just giving the cash out like confetti.

So what do we know 4 years later prices have gone up a bit then gone down a bit then back up a bit, hardly the properties shown by a bubble, ergo there is no bubble. He tried to say that a bubble does not need access to cheap credit and gave an example of the dot com bubble. Which is a complete lie. Anyone who looks at the dotcom bubble the reason it started was low interest rates at the time allowing people get more capital for a start up or in layman's terms access to easy and cheap credit


So according to the ERSI a body that has no skin in the game we would have higher prices had the cheap credit been available after 08

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/house-prices-would-be-9-higher-without-central-banks-strict-lending-rules-1085433.html

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40231619.html

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/arid-30968541.html

As for the government buying houses - This has been going on for a good few years now.

https://www.thejournal.ie/housing-minister-local-authorities-buy-up-new-properties-5155602-Jul2020/

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0425/1045693-housing-local-authorities/

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/state-to-acquire-private-homes-for-social-housing-1.2756208

The gun of sinn fein has been put to their head, they have been hampered with building I am almost sure I seen new build commencements way down in 2020 and in 2021 has had a shutdown which will continue till April so they are now and have been buying for years as well as trying to build and prices are going up and they are competing with REITS, Vultures and the bog standard couple trying to get on the ladder

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

I actually think it would be in his donors interests for those jobs to be back in the states and take a relatively small hit now.

The next version of Trump may not be so friendly towards these groups.

This comes up after every single US election.
And what happens? Nothing, ever.

fliball123

JimmyVik wrote: »

This comes up after every single US election.
And what happens? Nothing, ever.

That is the truth Trump and Obama said exactly the same and 12 years on Ireland continues to go from strength to strength not much to see here with Biden

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

This comes up after every single US election.
And what happens? Nothing, ever.

So trump didn't get elected? Did the multinationals not start returning the cash they were "storing" in Ireland to america once he brought in the lower tax rates?

It's kind of like baby steps. We're lucky that it hasn't taking a war to change the status quo, but the status quo is changing. Slowly, but it is changing.

Noone thought the tories in the UK would be looking at increasing corporation taxes but they apparently will be now.

Noone thought that the united states would print out cash and hand it out to every citizen, but they are.

We now have governments in both the united states and the UK (the only important western powers) who are beginning to put the citizens of their countries first instead of looking to maintain the current global order.

They're worried what the next iteration of trump might be, so I reckon change is coming and a lot faster and in ways that many people don't yet fully comprehend IMO

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Said outside the states

still wrong, google want to pay as little tax as possible not 12.5%.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

So trump didn't get elected? Did the multinationals not start returning the cash they were "storing" in Ireland to america once he brought in the lower tax rates?

It's kind of like baby steps. We're lucky that it hasn't taking a war to change the status quo, but the status quo is changing. Slowly, but it is changing.

Noone thought the tories in the UK would be looking at increasing corporation taxes but they apparently will be now.

Noone thought that the united states would print out cash and hand it out to every citizen, but they are.

We now have governments in both the united states and the UK (the only important western powers) who are beginning to put the citizens of their countries first instead of looking to maintain the current global order.

They're worried what the next iteration of trump might be, so I reckon change is coming and a lot faster and in ways that many people don't yet fully comprehend IMO

Change is always coming. Never fast though.

You are overthinking it.
Nothing happened on it, as usual.
It will be the same after the next president is elected, whenever that may be.

This thread should be called "the PropQueries express"

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Noone thought that the united states would print out cash and hand it out to every citizen, but they are

The USA printed cash and handed out 14bn to its citizens in the 2009.

This is not new....you could even argue that governments have always done this via grants

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

Factual data as in he spun the 08 recession in a way that would have everyone watching believing that cheap and easy access to credit had nothing whatsoever to do with blowing up the bubble pre 08. He said it over and over he had the opinion that even without the cheap credit the bubble would of still blown up . Watch it again he says it a number of times through the debate and the other nodding dogs in the audience just agreeing.

I'll watch it again just in case I'm the one watching it with blinkers on, but we are speaking about a person who has made a career out of warning about Bank lending fueling the bubble to 08.

Was it in relation to his core housing point that the traditional rule of thumb

That as price rises demand falls

He argues correctly that this is invalid in housing because housing is a necessity and when price rises, panic sets in and pushes more demand further increasing price

This process is amplified by choking supply through Gov policy on mortgage arrears, increased costs on construction like regulation, building finance, no action on land hoarding, dereliction of existing stock.

Availability of credit is not the sole cause of bubbles. Controlling supply and demand can contribute greatly to forming and blowing up bubbles

There are multiple tools to resolve them or to blow them up further. It's a choice. Do we want a bubble or a properly functioning market that works for buyers as well as sellers and construction sector

We appear to have chosen to reward speculators over citizens

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

throw in the various government incentives that had existed and created just recently for buyers along with a huge increase in competition both locally with our government procuring property for the less fortunate and a huge increase in foreigners buying via REITS and vulture funds therefore more competition than ever, all of those ingredients should of pushed prices up way higher. Yet here we are still a good 20% off the highest price point of of 07. This is mainly due to people not being able to borrow the same high amounts pre-08 .

The various government measures fuelled demand and prevented a Brexit and covid correction
They were also heavily favourable to speculators over citizens keeping rents high and favouring them over tax payers in committing to long term leases at sky high rents

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

So trump didn't get elected? Did the multinationals not start returning the cash they were "storing" in Ireland to america once he brought in the lower tax rates?

It's kind of like baby steps. We're lucky that it hasn't taking a war to change the status quo, but the status quo is changing. Slowly, but it is changing.

Noone thought the tories in the UK would be looking at increasing corporation taxes but they apparently will be now.

Noone thought that the united states would print out cash and hand it out to every citizen, but they are.

We now have governments in both the united states and the UK (the only important western powers) who are beginning to put the citizens of their countries first instead of looking to maintain the current global order.

They're worried what the next iteration of trump might be, so I reckon change is coming and a lot faster and in ways that many people don't yet fully comprehend IMO

Don't forget how Trump dropping corpo tax rates in the US to levels not seen since the 1940s led to a mass exodus of jobs and investment out of Ireland, just like the doomsayers predicted.

2020's record corpo tax take, despite a global pandemic, was a figment of imagination.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

I'll watch it again just in case I'm the one watching it with blinkers on, but we are speaking about a person who has made a career out of warning about Bank lending fueling the bubble to 08.

Was it in relation to his core housing point that the traditional rule of thumb

That as price rises demand falls

He argues correctly that this is invalid in housing because housing is a necessity and when price rises, panic sets in and pushes more demand further increasing price

This process is amplified by choking supply through Gov policy on mortgage arrears, increased costs on construction like regulation, building finance, no action on land hoarding, dereliction of existing stock.

Availability of credit is not the sole cause of bubbles. Controlling supply and demand can contribute greatly to forming and blowing up bubbles

There are multiple tools to resolve them or to blow them up further. It's a choice. Do we want a bubble or a properly functioning market that works for buyers as well as sellers and construction sector

We appear to have chosen to reward speculators over citizens

no he said the bubble would of happened in 08 credit or no credit which is wrong and hindsight in 2021 were the property prices have gone up and down and up and down and bumped along instead of prices bubbling out of control hense the phrase ergo there is currently no bubble or at least thats what the data between 2017 and now would show.

Also demand might not fall while prices rises but access to that level of credit does stop its at a set rate meaning that demand does not equal those who can actually afford to buy. The people who can actually afford to buy falls

hometruths

It's a bit simplistic to say there is currently no easy access to credit ergo the current market is not in a bubble.

That completely ignores the cheap credit that is already in the market - remnants of 110% mortgages, many of which are not being paid, trackers etc.

Most will agree prices have been rising because supply has been extremely tight. The hangover of this boom time credit is contributing to this tight supply, as people are locked into these houses because of negative equity/arrears/trackers.

You could argue a bubble is present when market conditions can burst. An increase in supply could certainly burst the current market conditions.

I m not saying I definitely think we are currently in a bubble. Just that it is not true to say you cannot have a bubble without a fresh supply of easy credit.

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

Also demand might not fall while prices rises but access to that level of credit does stop its at a set rate meaning that demand does not equal those who can actually afford to buy. The people who can actually afford to buy falls

Agreed, but allowing reits in with access to free money and practically tax exempt allows for distortion in the market.

Imagine what would happen if the general public was told you no longer need to pay tax and your mortgage interest rates are 0 for the foreseeable future

It's never going to happen, but it has happened for reits/investment funds. This gives them huge competitive advantage and they become the price setters for new homes.

This together with money printing imo has been the replacement for 110,% mortgages in the noughties in driving the bubble forward. As they drive prices higher more and more are priced out of the market and these people become economically neutralised due to the sky high rents increasingly going to entities that pay no tax
As the rents soar the taxpayer comes under pressure and we are now in a position that greater than 50% of rents are subsidised by the state incl local authority. This is completely unsustainable

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

It's a bit simplistic to say there is currently no easy access to credit ergo the current market is not in a bubble.

That completely ignores the cheap credit that is already in the market - remnants of 110% mortgages, many of which are not being paid, trackers etc.

Most will agree prices have been rising because supply has been extremely tight. The hangover of this boom time credit is contributing to this tight supply, as people are locked into these houses because of negative equity/arrears/trackers.

You could argue a bubble is present when market conditions can burst. An increase in supply could certainly burst the current market conditions.

I m not saying I definitely think we are currently in a bubble. Just that it is not true to say you cannot have a bubble without a fresh supply of easy credit.

Really right well go and look at other threads on here just as an eye opener there is one in particular about currently buying and selling. Banks in a lot of cases are not lending above the ECB rules and are also not lending to those on PUP or any other financial support from the government. They are no longer taking bonuses into consideration when your getting the amount you can borrow. You have to reapply every month currently to make sure your circumstances have not changed. If that's the definition of easy access I would hate to see them coming down hard on it.


If a bubble was present surely prices would of just continued on an upward trajectory and the current situation does take into consideration the current credit within the market. Property has not gone up by much at all if you measure from 2017 its bounced alone with no major rises or falls hardly the properties of a bubble 4 years of prices not moving up or down too much.

Have you any figures on property still in negative equity currently I cant find anything for 2020 or beyond.

Can you demonstrate one bubble in history not predicated on easy and cheap credit?

Just so we are clear we may well move into bubble territory in the near future but from 2017 to 2020 there was not a bubble (as mcWilliams outlined) as the stats on property price would prove this in hindsight.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

Agreed, but allowing reits in with access to free money and practically tax exempt allows for distortion in the market.

Imagine what would happen if the general public was told you no longer need to pay tax and your mortgage interest rates are 0 for the foreseeable future

It's never going to happen, but it has happened for reits/investment funds. This gives them huge competitive advantage and they become the price setters for new homes.

This together with money printing imo has been the replacement for 110,% mortgages in the noughties in driving the bubble forward. As they drive prices higher more and more are priced out of the market and these people become economically neutralised due to the sky high rents increasingly going to entities that pay no tax
As the rents soar the taxpayer comes under pressure and we are now in a position that greater than 50% of rents are subsidised by the state incl local authority. This is completely unsustainable

I totally agree with you but this is how it is. I never said REITS or Vultures or the fact that government are spending on ready made homes and competing in a very competitive property market was good. I was simply pointing out that this is the current situation.

PropQueries

According to RTE, commercial property vacancy rates in Ireland have risen to 13.5%.

"Sligo had the highest number of vacant commercial properties, with 19.9% or almost one-in-five such properties unoccupied.

With the exception of Kildare at 14.4%, the figures show that all counties in the greater Dublin area registered commercial vacancy rates lower than the national average, with Meath recording the lowest rate at 10.1%.

In the capital, the vacancy rate fell marginally by 0.1% to 11.9%"

We don't even have to look at utilising the space above shop units. Maybe actually convert these empty units into residential space in their entirety?

Plus, who owns this amount of vacant commercial space in Ireland? And, how wealthy are they that they don't even need to consider renting them out? Most likely funds IMO

Link to article on RTE here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0224/1199194-commercial-property-vacancy-rate-rises-to-13-5/

cnocbui

The Irish definition of a housing bubble: Prices in the highly desirable 4 streets I would deign to live in exceed my means.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

According to RTE, commercial property vacancy rates in Ireland have risen to 13.5%.

"Sligo had the highest number of vacant commercial properties, with 19.9% or almost one-in-five such properties unoccupied.

With the exception of Kildare at 14.4%, the figures show that all counties in the greater Dublin area registered commercial vacancy rates lower than the national average, with Meath recording the lowest rate at 10.1%.

In the capital, the vacancy rate fell marginally by 0.1% to 11.9%"

We don't even have to look at utilising the space above shop units. Maybe actually convert these empty units into residential space in their entirety?

Plus, who owns this amount of vacant commercial space in Ireland? And, how wealthy are they that they don't even need to consider renting them out? Most likely funds IMO

Link to article on RTE here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0224/1199194-commercial-property-vacancy-rate-rises-to-13-5/

Another; other peoples property should be made into communal property if I don't agree with how they are using it post.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

Another; other peoples property should be made into communal property if I don't agree with how they are using it post.

Well, the state can compulsory purchase my property for a cycle path in the middle of nowhere i.e. greenways.

I think housing is a more pressing issue than a cycle path for the three people in the country who actually enjoy cycling in the rain for pleasure

Just to add. I'm not in favour of compulsory purchase for housing. I'm in favour of incentives to ensure property in prime locations is used to it's full potential i.e. similar to the vacant property taxes in the united states etc.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, the state can compulsory purchase my property for a cycle path in the middle of nowhere i.e. greenways.

I think housing is a more pressing issue than a cycle path for the three people in the country who actually enjoy cycling in the rain for pleasure

The state cant afford to buy everything.

fliball123

JimmyVik wrote: »

The state cant afford to buy everything.

Its like the late late show one for everyone in the audience. Doing what props says will cause even more hardship on those working to try and pay for it all while there will be those who fleece the system and have no intention of paying their way..Moral Hazard anyone.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Its like the late late show one for everyone in the audience. Doing what props says will cause even more hardship on those working to try and pay for it all while there will be those who fleece the system and have no intention of paying their way..Moral Hazard anyone.

How would vacant property taxes (like the United States) cost the state anything?

If anything they would generate revenue. The side benefit is that it would encourage vacant property owners to look again at their property and see if they should finally make use of it.

For example, Sligo has a 20% commercial property vacancy rate. I’m sure there are many self-employed people who would take up that space if the rent was right.

More businesses in Sligo town, more busy, brings more people into the town so existing businesses benefit too, less dereliction, nicer atmosphere, young people see existing self employed people and think they can do it too. Sligo town booms and keeps booming due to an increase in local entrepreneurship.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, the state can compulsory purchase my property for a cycle path in the middle of nowhere i.e. greenways.

I think housing is a more pressing issue than a cycle path for the three people in the country who actually enjoy cycling in the rain for pleasure

Just to add. I'm not in favour of compulsory purchase for housing. I'm in favour of incentives to ensure property in prime locations is used to it's full potential i.e. similar to the vacant property taxes in the united states etc.

As someone who is subject to what amounts to a CPO without payment, I don't agree with you - vehemently. If the state want's to dictate to property owners how property is used, they should have to buy it at current market value, and then they can use what is now their property as they see fit.

You are real fan of the big stick. Perhaps if you were on the receiving end of one you mightn't be so glib with your ideas as to what should be inflicted on others.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

How would vacant property taxes (like the United States) cost the state anything?

If anything they would generate revenue. The side benefit is that it would encourage vacant property owners to look again at their property and see if they should finally make use of it.

For example, Sligo has a 20% commercial property vacancy rate. I’m sure there are many self-employed people who would take up that space if the rent was right.

More businesses in Sligo town, more busy, brings more people into the town so existing businesses benefit too, less dereliction, nicer atmosphere, young people see existing self employed people and think they can do it too. Sligo town booms and keeps booming due to an increase in local entrepreneurship.

Next you'll be looking for a tax on the old dears spare bedroom.