Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

thelad95

billyhead wrote: »

No. The Common cold is still knocking about. I had a dose of it up go last week. Sore throat and unusual tiredness.

And you didn't think given there's you know a global pandemic that it might have been wise to consider getting a test? Or did you just continue business as usual?

seamus

fits wrote: »

No hint of a peak yet at all.

I disagree

The positivity rates tentatively suggests that growth is slowing down, which means a peak is imminent.

What am I saying? In the 7 days from 24th to 30th December, positivity rates grew by 18.5% per day, on average. From 31st today, they have grown by 6.19%, on average.

If we get to Friday and the positivity rate is still coming in at 26% or less, then we're nearly at the peak.

The forecasts have been slowly improving as the number come in this week. What was once a near vertical forecast, is starting to turn. Slowly.

I might eat my words tomorrow, but I'd say Monday is the key day that will confirm if the tide has turned.

Gael23

We won’t be at the peak until 14 days after New Year’s Eve

Galadriel

thelad95 wrote: »

And you didn't think given there's you know a global pandemic that it might have been wise to consider getting a test? Or did you just continue business as usual?

Exactly, my symptoms are extremely mild, if I hadn't have had the loss of taste and smell I would have thought 'just a standard head cold'.

D.Q

Galadriel wrote: »

Exactly, my symptoms are extremely mild, if I hadn't have had the loss of taste and smell I would have thought 'just a standard head cold'.

This new elvish strain is extremely concerning

fits

Galadriel wrote: »

Exactly, my symptoms are extremely mild, if I hadn't have had the loss of taste and smell I would have thought 'just a standard head cold'.

Posts like these make me wonder if we had it over christmas as well. Son was tested and came back not detected but seemingly lots of kids do. Neither of the adults had fever or cough so we never got tested. (At least we wouldnt have passed it on as we didnt visit or have visitors indoors)

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

We won’t be at the peak until 14 days after New Year’s Eve

Why 14days?

Tpcl20

seamus wrote: »

I disagree

The positivity rates tentatively suggests that growth is slowing down, which means a peak is imminent.

What am I saying? In the 7 days from 24th to 30th December, positivity rates grew by 18.5% per day, on average. From 31st today, they have grown by 6.19%, on average.

If we get to Friday and the positivity rate is still coming in at 26% or less, then we're nearly at the peak.

The forecasts have been slowly improving as the number come in this week. What was once a near vertical forecast, is starting to turn. Slowly.

I might eat my words tomorrow, but I'd say Monday is the key day that will confirm if the tide has turned.

There's optimism and then there's whatever this nonsense is.

We're not going to have peaked for at least ten days, if even that.

This week, we have late Christmas infections coming with early New Years ones. Next week, we'll have the New Years ones and the ones those infected at Christmas probably went on to infect.

Hopefully in 10 to 14 days from now we might see the numbers starting to slow down if Level 5 is working, but I really don't see it having that huge of an impact because too many sectors are still open and given the high levels of transmission in the community and increased transmissibility of the new strain, I wouldn't be getting out the party hats yet.

Le Bruise

D.Q wrote: »

This new elvish strain is extremely concerning

The world is changed.....

BringBackMick

Not good swabs today it must be said.

Eod100

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Dr Holohan said yesterday if you feel any flu like symptoms at all that it's almost certainly Covid 19 as there is no sign of any other virus' circulating.

If we are now only testing people who show symptoms, and the positivity rate is "only" 24% doesn't that completely contradict what Dr Holohan said ?

I think he meant it more like act as if you do so you contact GP and GP makes call on being referred instead of risking people thinking it's a cold/flu and then being out in community potentially effecting others.

Also no testing system is 100%, up to 20% or 30% could be false negatives.

Endintheclowns

fits wrote: »

No hint of a peak yet at all.

Yeah looks its just getting worse tbh.

I know of 4 people in my estate alone who've tested positive yesterday alone, all different households.

giveitholly

Will there be a press conference from government today to announce the new restrictions or will it just be a press release?

Gael23

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Why 14days?

People infected at New Year’s Eve parties won’t be positive until then

Traffic is light around Ballsbridge. No doubt the n7 will be backed up because of the checkpoint.

Eod100

giveitholly wrote: »

Will there be a press conference from government today to announce the new restrictions or will it just be a press release?

Don't think I've seen anything confirmed but with scale of restrictions on schools and impact Martin might give another speech.

Knine

Gael23 wrote: »

People infected at New Year’s Eve parties won’t be positive until then

Why do people keep spouting this? The average is actually 5 days which is around now!

mcburns07

Gael23 wrote: »

People infected at New Year’s Eve parties won’t be positive until then

How can you be so clueless after 10 months

Martina1991

Dressoutlet wrote: »

It's most certainly not I had a very bad dose of the common cold a few weeks ago and I was negative for covid.
I have 2 in laws both tested negative for covid but are in bed with flu like symptoms still. They've been sent for a 2nd test and are awaiting results but GP said it's most certainly flu if the retests are negative. The. Labs don't have the capacity to test for flu as they're over run with Covid, this is why we have 0 official flu diagnoses but GPS are diagnosing based on symptoms

Labs would have capacity to test for influenza and other respiratory viruses but just haven't been receiving that many requests for influenza testing.
GPs might be diagnosing flu in the absence of Covid, and not bother with a test for flu if the person is well enough to recover at home.

TonyMaloney

Gael23 wrote: »

We won’t be at the peak until 14 days after New Year’s Eve

You can see in the google data that our behaviour significantly changed from Christmas day onwards. Thankfully.

Applying or removing restrictions can often take up to 14 days to have an affect on daily cases. However if people are suitably frightened then their activities become less risky, which essentially means the benefits of the restrictions will arrive sooner than the anticipated 14 days.

I'm hoping we're seeing that early change of behaviour slowing the growth right now. In a few more days the restrictions will truly kick in and it should start dropping.

We've seen this happen before

CIARAN_BOYLE

Knine wrote: »

Why do people keep spouting this? The average is actually 5 days which is around now!

I thought the median was 5 days and the median was 7.

Anyway the real problem is lag between symptoms and result.

Symptoms day 5
Say I'll give it a day
Call doctor day 6
Doctor books phone consult day 7
Doctor refers for a test
Test contacts you on day 8 to make an appointment
You get a test on day 9
You get results on day 10
Its reported as a case on day 11

Sometimes you can go through the process quicker and sometimes it can take longer. It takes long enough in general though that if the average time to symptoms is 7 days it's usually day 14 before you are fully through the system.

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

People infected at New Year’s Eve parties won’t be positive until then

I thought this was what you were suggesting but wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt.

50% would have been positive by yesterday. All small number wont be positive until day 14. A tiny fraction wont be positive until after day 14

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/8/e039652

TonyMaloney

Deleted User wrote: »

I thought this was what you were suggesting but wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt.

50% would have been positive by yesterday. All small number wont be positive until day 14. A tiny fraction wont be positive until after day 14

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/8/e039652

In fairness you have to arrange a test and get a result too

Eod100

Eod100 wrote: »

Don't think I've seen anything confirmed but with scale of restrictions on schools and impact Martin might give another speech.

Looks like press conference happening in a while alright.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1346839234519433217

Dressoutlet

Dressoutlet wrote: »

It's most certainly not I had a very bad dose of the common cold a few weeks ago and I was negative for covid.
I have 2 in laws both tested negative for covid but are in bed with flu like symptoms still. They've been sent for a 2nd test and are awaiting results but GP said it's most certainly flu if the retests are negative. The. Labs don't have the capacity to test for flu as they're over run with Covid, this is why we have 0 official flu diagnoses but GPS are diagnosing based on symptoms

Up to the 20th of December, this winter 1,796 samples have been tested for Influenza and there have been a total of Zero positives. I would expect there to be a new report this week

This information is not difficult to find.
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/influenza/seasonalinfluenza/surveillance/influenzasurveillancereports/20202021season/Influenza_Surveillance_Report_Week%20512020_Finalv1.0_22122020.pdf

CIARAN_BOYLE

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I thought the median was 5 days and the median was 7.

Anyway the real problem is lag between symptoms and result.

Symptoms day 5
Say I'll give it a day
Call doctor day 6
Doctor books phone consult day 7
Doctor refers for a test
Test contacts you on day 8 to make an appointment
You get a test on day 9
You get results on day 10
Its reported as a case on day 11

Sometimes you can go through the process quicker and sometimes it can take longer. It takes long enough in general though that if the average time to symptoms is 7 days it's usually day 14 before you are fully through the system.

Most I have heard about recently got tested the same day the contacted their GP, or early the next. And about 2 days for results

Dressoutlet

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I thought this was what you were suggesting but wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt.

50% would have been positive by yesterday. All small number wont be positive until day 14. A tiny fraction wont be positive until after day 14

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/8/e039652

That's all good and well but if I get ill today after being in hospital NYE I will say wait and see how I feel tomorrow. Then call my Dr and arrange a test I'm now on day 8. Get tested day 9 and 2 days waiting for my results I'm now day 11 and reported 12 days after new years. It's very optimistic to think people are getting referred and tested on the day they develop symptoms

Supercell

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I thought the median was 5 days and the median was 7.

Anyway the real problem is lag between symptoms and result.

Symptoms day 5
Say I'll give it a day
Call doctor day 6
Doctor books phone consult day 7
Doctor refers for a test
Test contacts you on day 8 to make an appointment
You get a test on day 9
You get results on day 10
Its reported as a case on day 11

Sometimes you can go through the process quicker and sometimes it can take longer. It takes long enough in general though that if the average time to symptoms is 7 days it's usually day 14 before you are fully through the system.

Fair play, that's well thought out, even if it depresses me a little, I really was hopeful we would peak in swabs before this weekend, might be a little longer though, hope not.

My own experience is similar though a bit quicker..

Say symptoms day 5
Give it a day (or two) 6 or 7
Call doc in the morning, get appointment next day 8
Result day 9-10'ish

Arduach

When we peak is probably not as relevant as the fall off rate of cases and the effect of the new strain.

It won't be a whole lot of good peaking today if in 4 weeks time we're still at 3-4,000 cases.

We could kind of estimate from the first lockdown, but the new strain is a spanner in the works. On the plus side we have the vaccine starting to roll out..slowly!

Probes

When I had a test previously I got it same day as speaking with my GP and results the next day. Not sure if it's significantly delayed now but it was pretty quick all round.