Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

Doctor Jimbob

Eod100 wrote: »

Probably posted already but NPHET briefing at 6.30ish https://twitter.com/juneshannon/status/1353739441614032896?s=19

That's around 7.10 Irish time I think.

ninebeanrows

I want more evidence about these variants.

The media are spouting nonsense daily about how they are dangerous and more hyperbole

It is now almost an accepted truth that these variants are driving a different type of spread but there is no tangible evidence.

Shocking misinformation.

It is flabbergasting nobody has sought to investigate this further.

Turtwig

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

I want more evidence about these variants.

The media are spouting nonsense daily about how they are dangerous and more hyperbole

It is no almost an accepted truth that these variants are driving a different type of spread but there is no tangible evidence.

Shocking misinformation.

It is flabbergasting nobody has sought to investigate this further.

It is being investigated further. The UKs analysis from multiple different areas suggested greater transmission. There is the researchers eyes tangible evidence. Their paper is still in preprints though awaiting peer review. Will have to wait and see.

These things take time. You don't get all the answers at once. The preliminary dara and analysis is enough to suggest precaution. Maybe that can be relaxed but based on the initial findings it's best to be safe rather than sorry.

Relevant Paper (pre print):
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.30.20249034v2

South Africa variant arguably has even more analysis than the UK. That one is imo of more concern rightly so.

snotboogie

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

I want more evidence about these variants.

The media are spouting nonsense daily about how they are dangerous and more hyperbole

It is now almost an accepted truth that these variants are driving a different type of spread but there is no tangible evidence.

Shocking misinformation.

It is flabbergasting nobody has sought to investigate this further.

They are being investigated but it will take more time. Agreed the media are massively jumping the gun on this with very scant actual evidence, particularly on vaccine effectiveness.

Eod100

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

That's around 7.10 Irish time I think.

Heh, probably

Mimon

DebDynamite wrote: »

I would imagine they would be eligible for enhanced illness benefit rather than the PUP (still pays €350)

https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/social_welfare/social_welfare_payments/disability_and_illness/covid19_enhanced_illness_benefit.html#


Slightly off topic, but I find that to be an awful waste of resources. Can they not have swabbers driving around in their cars, like the community nurse, and not be using up paramedics and ambulances. People would also probably get tested sooner too.

Thanks, found that too and passed it on to them.

Agree regarding the resource issue with the use of Ambulances. Maybe HSE could rent some vans. Long wait as well.

Amirani

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

I want more evidence about these variants.

The media are spouting nonsense daily about how they are dangerous and more hyperbole

It is now almost an accepted truth that these variants are driving a different type of spread but there is no tangible evidence.

Shocking misinformation.

It is flabbergasting nobody has sought to investigate this further.

In fairness, Micheal Martin is saying the same most days too. They're just quoting him.

ninebeanrows

Turtwig wrote: »

It is being investigated further. The UKs analysis from multiple different areas suggested greater transmission. There is the researchers eyes tangible evidence. Their paper is still in preprints though awaiting peer review. Will have to wait and see.

These things take time. You don't get all the answers at once. The preliminary dara and analysis is enough to suggest precaution. Maybe that can be relaxed but based on the initial findings it's best to be safe rather than sorry.

Relevant Paper (pre print):
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.30.20249034v2

South Africa variant arguably has even more analysis than the UK. That one is imo of more concern rightly so.

From my very dumb view, it is clear the variant is becoming more dominant as compared to the other variants, but that doesn't mean it is more transmissible.

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

UK cases dropping quick enough now as well. At 22,195 for today

Tell you what Stephen, we could be witnessing greenshoots of genuine optimism. Will embrace any bit of positivity like a capsized sailor clinging to a buoy.

COVID-19 deaths per million people, rolling 7-day average:

1. Portugal 22.53

2. UK 18.31

3. Slovakia 15.54

4. Czech Republic 13.75

5. Eswatini 12.68

6. Slovenia 12.37

7. Liechtenstein 11.24

8. Lithuania 10.71

9. Ireland 10.47

10. Latvia 10.01

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/uk-worst-covid-death-rate-world-coronavirus-134410395.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29kbGlrZXByb2R1Y3Rpb25zLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEQ0EVBdRlVKXkx6ygiq4ZYxPJFH06x_L3YtNQpmawQWF5pwgH4k3spHNU_NquG4EafGvgMXH-9xPfqt1xCW3ExEMIApi871hBa6gtaY1FFioxoVjiKEqJQ42gtuAclCLmXtw6OfXCf7WHM-BQzTNVvW_in5NLVZ1sozQexwSVuv

Gruffalux

Deleted User wrote: »

COVID-19 deaths per million people, rolling 7-day average:

1. Portugal 22.53

2. UK 18.31

3. Slovakia 15.54

4. Czech Republic 13.75

5. Eswatini 12.68

6. Slovenia 12.37

7. Liechtenstein 11.24

8. Lithuania 10.71

9. Ireland 10.47

10. Latvia 10.01

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/uk-worst-covid-death-rate-world-coronavirus-134410395.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29kbGlrZXByb2R1Y3Rpb25zLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEQ0EVBdRlVKXkx6ygiq4ZYxPJFH06x_L3YtNQpmawQWF5pwgH4k3spHNU_NquG4EafGvgMXH-9xPfqt1xCW3ExEMIApi871hBa6gtaY1FFioxoVjiKEqJQ42gtuAclCLmXtw6OfXCf7WHM-BQzTNVvW_in5NLVZ1sozQexwSVuv

Eswatini = used to be Swaziland, for those others like me who may have gone

Eod100

Only saw the positive swabs there, that's great going from where we were a few weeks ago. If we's consistently below 1,000 before the end of the month think it would be great boost.

Eod100

If this keeps up the Healy Raes will be sending pensioners up north to get theirs :pac: Presume vaccines fall outside the treatment abroad scheme?!

https://twitter.com/healthdpt/status/1353749300531048458

froog

Gradius wrote: »

I severely doubt that.

The virus is transmitting from other people, so if you're out and about with much more interaction (as opposed to holed up in the house), then it'll spread more, not less.

there's a strong seasonal aspect to this virus. not as large as flu for example, but it's there unquestionably.

Van.Bosch

froog wrote: »

there's a strong seasonal aspect to this virus. not as large as flu for example, but it's there unquestionably.

I’m in no way doubting you but how does a virus become seasonal - what makes it less likely to spread at certain times? I’ve heard it said in winter we are indoors more so that’s a factor but that’s not the virus itself.

CalamariFritti

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I’m in no way doubting you but how does a virus become seasonal - what makes it less likely to spread at certain times? I’ve heard it said in winter we are indoors more so that’s a factor but that’s not the virus itself.

Probably that we're just a little weaker and more vulnerable in winter. Vitamin D or lack of seems huge in this.

Eod100

froog wrote: »

there's a strong seasonal aspect to this virus. not as large as flu for example, but it's there unquestionably.

I think the seasonality aspect may be a bit overplayed. It might be more do do with people socialising outdoors vs indoors more than anything.

ninebeanrows

Jasus , there is actually real talk of putting check points up near the border?

Have things gone bonkers?

Case numbers are collapsing, we are doing well. We do not need to panic at this point and make decisions we will regret in the long term.

We need to hold tight and I really hope the government don't bend to a transient sway in public opinion.

Sardonicat

Mimon wrote: »

Thanks, found that too and passed it on to them.

Agree regarding the resource issue with the use of Ambulances. Maybe HSE could rent some vans. Long wait as well.

When I was tested by the Ambulance service back in Sept, he didn't actually arrive in an ambulance. It was a jeep, I think. While an Ambulance service jeep, it is not intended to transport sick/injured people. The Ambulance service is broader in scope than its name suggests.

oceanman

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Jasus , there is actually real talk of putting check points up near the border?

Have things gone bonkers?

Case numbers are collapsing, we are doing well. We do not need to panic at this point and make decisions we will regret in the long term.

We need to hold tight and I really hope the government don't bend to a transient sway in public opinion.

should have done it months ago...

Van.Bosch

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I’m in no way doubting you but how does a virus become seasonal - what makes it less likely to spread at certain times? I’ve heard it said in winter we are indoors more so that’s a factor but that’s not the virus itself.

Some viruses do apparently show seasonality in addition to the gathering indoors factor in unfavourable weather.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/why-do-dozens-diseases-wax-and-wane-seasons-and-will-covid-19

Eod100

Wonder will this get much support within government?

https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1353745367301574662

froog

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I’m in no way doubting you but how does a virus become seasonal - what makes it less likely to spread at certain times? I’ve heard it said in winter we are indoors more so that’s a factor but that’s not the virus itself.

UV light kills viruses very fast is the main answer. coupled with less people gathering together inside coughing and sneezing.

polesheep

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Jasus , there is actually real talk of putting check points up near the border?

Have things gone bonkers?

Case numbers are collapsing, we are doing well. We do not need to panic at this point and make decisions we will regret in the long term.

We need to hold tight and I really hope the government don't bend to a transient sway in public opinion.

When cases are high, those who favour tighter restrictions press the advantage. Eventually the government capitulates, but by then the cases are dropping again. We've been here before.

KrustyUCC

Eod100 wrote: »

Wonder will this get much support within government?

https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1353745367301574662

No it won't

They know it's not workable

Russman

froog wrote: »

UV light kills viruses very fast is the main answer. coupled with less people gathering together inside coughing and sneezing.

Not saying you’re wrong at all, but the surges in Florida (the Sunshine State) and Texas last summer make me doubt there’s much of a seasonality aspect to this tbh. Could well be, but I’m a little dubious.

Eod100

polesheep wrote: »

When cases are high, those who favour tighter restrictions press the advantage. Eventually the government capitulates, but by then the cases are dropping again. We've been here before.

Surely that's the right time to press? To maintain certain restrictions when cases ease so they stay down at a sustainable level

Kunta Kinte

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Probably that we're just a little weaker and more vulnerable in winter. Vitamin D or lack of seems huge in this.

How do you explain the worsening situation in Brazil then? It is mid summer there now. Not to mention that many parts of the country have similar temperatures / sunshine levels all year round.

polesheep

Eod100 wrote: »

Surely that's the right time to press? To maintain certain restrictions when cases ease so they stay down at a sustainable level

It is if you favour more restrictions. If you wish to control the number of cases with the least amount of restrictions you tweak them as the numbers change.

Eod100

KrustyUCC wrote: »

No it won't

They know it's not workable

If it's combined with quarantine it might have a better chance than before now.

Living with covid is out the window. Not sure what the current strategy is besides vaccinate and hope for the best.

CalamariFritti

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

How do you explain the worsening situation in Brazil then? It is mid summer there now. Not to mention that many parts of the country have similar temperatures / sunshine levels all year round.

Its been widely reported that hispanic and black people are more vulnerable to this and lower vitamin d levels in those populations were mentioned in that context.

MaccaTacca

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Jasus , there is actually real talk of putting check points up near the border?

Have things gone bonkers?

Case numbers are collapsing, we are doing well. We do not need to panic at this point and make decisions we will regret in the long term.

We need to hold tight and I really hope the government don't bend to a transient sway in public opinion.

Agree.

The Irish government is also taking serious liberties with the Common Travel Area, issues created here will be around long after Covid is gone.

Dempo1

Why is this travel ban becoming so complicated, Just stop it, full stop, its not terribly complicated. As for expecting people to pay for being locked up in hotels, how the F*** is that going to work? It's a nonsense and some serious diplomatic issues a serious possibility, what are GOV going to do with those who refuse to pay? Deport them? Stop them coming in the first place FFS.

KrustyUCC

Eod100 wrote: »

If it's combined with quarantine it might have a better chance than before now.

Living with covid is out the window. Not sure what the current strategy is besides vaccinate and hope for the best.

NPHET and Tony don't believe its possible so I can't see the government going against that advice

Eod100

polesheep wrote: »

It is if you favour more restrictions. If you wish to control the number of cases with the least amount of restrictions you tweak them as the numbers change.

Not necessarily more. Can be different ones which we didn't have all along to make sure easing restrictions is sustainable and we don't have to have a 4th and 5th lockdown. If quarantine is workable could have a chance of a domestic summer season potentially say.

This constant restrictions and then easing only to have more restrictions doesn't benefit as much having sustainable restrictions. Unless we try to change it, it will be same story.

Eod100

KrustyUCC wrote: »

NPHET and Tony don't believe its possible so I can't see the government going against that advice

Was that not partly based on political considerations? If the political context shifts , it could have more of a chance. I don't think there would be much appetite for a 4th and 5th lockdown but if a slightly longer restrictions plus enforced quarantine means sustainable opening it could work.

polesheep

Eod100 wrote: »

Not necessarily more. Can be different ones which we didn't have all along to make sure easing restrictions is sustainable and we don't have to have a 4th and 5th lockdown. If quarantine is workable could have a chance of a domestic summer season potentially say.

This constant restrictions and then easing only to have more restrictions doesn't benefit as much having sustainable restrictions. Unless we try to change it, it will be same story.

You make a lot of sense, nevertheless, cases are dropping and restrictions are increasing.

muddypuppy

Dempo1 wrote: »

Why is this travel ban becoming so complicated, Just stop it, full stop, its not terribly complicated. As for expecting people to pay for being locked up in hotels, how the F*** is that going to work? It's a nonsense and some serious diplomatic issues a serious possibility, what are GOV going to do with those who refuse to pay? Deport them? Stop them coming in the first place FFS.

It's not nearly this easy. You can't just close the airports and call it a day. I think the approach Australia is taking is somewhat fair - severely limit the number of people that can come into the country, and enforce quarantine unless an exception is granted on an individual basis. And they're still severely screwing over lots of citizen that live abroad and want/need to go back home (sick parents, lost their jobs and want to go back home, etc...).

As for forced hotel quarantine, it's working in Australia, Taiwan, Singapore and possible other countries.
Couple of articles on how it works:
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2021/01/08/taiwan-covid-19-protocol
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-01-01/covid-travel-singapore-pandemic-quarantine-lockdown

Honestly I don't have a strong opinion either way, but it's totally doable if there is the will do to it.

Ficheall

Seems my ex-gf in London has it - definitely symptomatic for a week, hasn't left the bed except to go to the loo, feverish, heart palpitations, fatigued etc., didn't quite hit hospitalisation levels on heart/oxygen monitors - but still tested negative during the week. On the mend now. She said the doctor said some people tested negative a few times before coming back positive, which seems a bit nuts. I guess maybe London are relying on ****tier tests given how bad things are over there? Posters who know more about testing - what's the current state of our tests regarding false positives/negatives?

Eod100

polesheep wrote: »

You make a lot of sense, nevertheless, cases are dropping and restrictions are increasing.

Sure but the issue is making sure that they don't inevitably go up once restrictions ease. If there's minimal travel restrictions then it will be a constant game of whack a mole and be very difficult to avoid importing more variants.

is_that_so

Eod100 wrote: »

If it's combined with quarantine it might have a better chance than before now.

Living with covid is out the window. Not sure what the current strategy is besides vaccinate and hope for the best.

Living with COVID really means the level we are at. I'm not convinced there is too much to be gained casewise at this point from quarantines here, but it is an extra painless tweak and it makes the government look like they have more control.

Russman

Russman wrote: »

Not saying you’re wrong at all, but the surges in Florida (the Sunshine State) and Texas last summer make me doubt there’s much of a seasonality aspect to this tbh. Could well be, but I’m a little dubious.

The thing about hot places is that people tend to retreat indoors into dry air conditioning to get some respite from the heat, which may or may not account for some of the contagion in hit regions.

Eod100

is_that_so wrote: »

Living with COVID really means the level we are at. I'm not convinced there is too much to be gained casewise at this point from quarantines here, but it is an extra painless tweak and it makes the government look like they have more control.

It won't impact current community case level but as cases decrease it mitigates against importing more cases and new variants. But government will probably do a typical half assed version to then have the excuse that it didn't work properly.

KrustyUCC

Eod100 wrote: »

Was that not partly based on political considerations? If the political context shifts , it could have more of a chance. I don't think there would be much appetite for a 4th and 5th lockdown but if a slightly longer restrictions plus enforced quarantine means sustainable opening it could work.

All to do with the border and different restrictions North and South

You won't get agreement on restrictions etc that would be needed for a zero covid strategy

polesheep

Eod100 wrote: »

Sure but the issue is making sure that they don't inevitably go up once restrictions ease. If there's minimal travel restrictions then it will be a constant game of whack a mole and be very difficult to avoid importing more variants.

They could give a little and take a little. As it is, it's simply more restrictions as cases go down. It frustrates people and makes them question why they are sacrificing so much.

Steve012

Turtwig wrote: »

It is being investigated further. The UKs analysis from multiple different areas suggested greater transmission. There is the researchers eyes tangible evidence. Their paper is still in preprints though awaiting peer review. Will have to wait and see.

These things take time. You don't get all the answers at once. The preliminary dara and analysis is enough to suggest precaution. Maybe that can be relaxed but based on the initial findings it's best to be safe rather than sorry.

Relevant Paper (pre print):
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.30.20249034v2

South Africa variant arguably has even more analysis than the UK. That one is imo of more concern rightly so.

Moderna say's their vaccine works against South African strain.

Eod100

Deleted User wrote: »

The thing about hot places is that people tend to retreat indoors into dry air conditioning to get some respite from the heat, which may or may not account for some of the contagion in hit regions.

There seems to be some speculation that the women in NZ who tested positive after the 14 day quarantine may have caught the virus from air conditioning but dunno how accurate that is.

Sardonicat

polesheep wrote: »

They could give a little and take a little. As it is, it's simply more restrictions as cases go down. It frustrates people and makes them question why they are sacrificing so much.

Look at what happened at Christmas. Look at the situation the hospitals, in particular, ICUs are in as a result.

Eod100

polesheep wrote: »

They could give a little and take a little. As it is, it's simply more restrictions as cases go down. It frustrates people and makes them question why they are sacrificing so much.

The main one I want to see is quarantine for everyone. May not be realistic and with case level so high but might mean we have a normal summer. If it helps do it and ease restrictions for majority of people living here then I'd be in favour.

polesheep

Sardonicat wrote: »

Look at what happened at Christmas. Look at the situation the hospitals, in particular, ICUs are in as a result.

I did say tweak.

The cases are coming down and the restrictions are increasing.