Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

Mental Mickey

MM has just finished an interview on RTE News, and, my God, he's truly awful at putting his point across.

Steve012

circadian wrote: »

It's going to be a few years of this, possibly follow up vaccinations every 9-12 months. The problem isn't vaccinating the nation, I think we could have that done by the end of year with ease.

It's people travelling from elsewhere, there are plenty of other countries who have a much, much tougher job of vaccinations. We'll certainly reduce outbreaks but there's still a risk of infections coming from outside the herd.

Fingers, eyes, ears and everything else crossed that the vaccines work on the Kent variant.

Scientists are concerned about the South African variant and vaccines efficacy.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/big-question-mark-uk-scientist-on-covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-against-south-african-variant/story-ZsukFMbtLIqVcChh5RXv9J.html

landofthetree

landofthetree wrote: »

At best its level 1 or 2 for a few months in the summer and then back to level 4 and 5 in the winter.

That would mean the vaccines weren't effective.

Loafing Oaf

circadian wrote: »

It's going to be a few years of this, possibly follow up vaccinations every 9-12 months. The problem isn't vaccinating the nation, I think we could have that done by the end of year with ease.

It's people travelling from elsewhere, there are plenty of other countries who have a much, much tougher job of vaccinations. We'll certainly reduce outbreaks but there's still a risk of infections coming from outside the herd.

But if nearly everybody in Ireland has been vaccinated where's the risk?

Follow_ur_lead

Just been speaking to some of my mates in building / construction. All of them are deemed essential somehow.

Not a hope sites will close and no wayof enforcing it.

Steve012

Deleted User wrote: »

That would mean the vaccines weren't effective.

The vaccines won't be fully rolled out this side of the summer, I think is where he is coming from.

Kivaro

lawred2 wrote: »

Hard to believe with everything that a blind eye was thrown over places selling takeaway pints..

That it even had to be highlighted..

That has been stopped now with the new restrictions, according to the reports tonight on VM News.

marno21

Stheno wrote: »

For now

It will be extended

I smell shutting the stable door after the horse is bolted.

Plenty of flights from SA connecting via Amsterdam and the Middle East

tom1ie

Just doing some back of the napkin maths but:
Our population is approx 5 million.
25% of the pop are under 16 so can’t take the vaccine which leaves 3750000.
Now let’s say that 10% can’t/won’t take vaccine (pregnant women, anti vaxers etc, people worried about the vaccine), that leaves: 3750000-375000=3375000 people to be vaccinated.
So if we manage to get 50k people vaccinated a week that’s 3375000/50000= 67.5 weeks.
Yikes.
Will we manage 50k a week?

lawred2

Kivaro wrote: »

That has been stopped now with the new restrictions, according to the reports tonight on VM News.

that's what I'm referring to

that that nonsense got this far as to needing to be specifically highlighted beggars belief

caveat emptor

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Is it meaningful to fit an epi curve onto data distorted by the backlog issue?
Have you tried fitting the swab data?

Good question. I think it is because it fits it quite well. The curve has stayed steady at 20% growth the last week.

Since the start our data has had issues. The swabs didn't match the confirmed cases etc. But ultimately the cases come through sooner or later.

I remember in august September on here with the endless debate about the backlog and games of higher lower. / the price is right. I think this was a result of the cider computer system thing.

We consistently saw a couple of low days and people go "nothing to worry about let's get back to normal"

Followed immediately by a big jump. The curve when cases were growing was always remarkably consistent though. Endless debates about it not being exponential when the formula and curve fit clearly showed it was.

Today was an oh **** day, where did they come from. Truth is we know where they came from. We have a +20% positivity rate. We've had to stop testing close contacts not to mention contact tracing breaking down. So the cases are likely believe it or not an underestimate.

Restrictions will hopefully start to bring it under control but hospital and ICU will lag.

Plumbthedepths

SuperRabbit wrote: »

Young people have like a 20% risk of long covid, and something like 25% of people get organ damage even with mild covid and we don't know what the long term effects of it will be

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/0106/1187935-long-covid-symptoms/

Are your claims based on an RTE article which it appears you didn’t read?

eggy81

Follow_ur_lead wrote: »

Just been speaking to some of my mates in building / construction. All of them are deemed essential somehow.

Not a hope sites will close and no wayof enforcing it.

We’ve been told we staying open. Data centre project. Hard to know what way I feel to be honest. It makes a mockery of their lockdown talk though.

Steve012

marno21 wrote: »

I smell shutting the stable door after the horse is bolted.

Plenty of flights from SA connecting via Amsterdam and the Middle East

Anyone have a clue if they will shut international travel altogether for a little while?

almostover

Follow_ur_lead wrote: »

Just been speaking to some of my mates in building / construction. All of them are deemed essential somehow.

Not a hope sites will close and no wayof enforcing it.

Huge ownngoal by a weak willed goverment. This essential nonsense will encourage builders to deem themselves as doing essential projects and tip away at work on a reduced basis while drawing PUP. Might just result in a bigger PUP bill with no impact on virus transmission. Either let them all open or shut them all down.

It wont be policed anyway. My employer deemed themselves essential during lockdown 1 (medical device manufacturing) and I was stopped at checkpoints on the way to work several times. I had a letter from the plant manage to show Gardai evidence of working in an essential manufacturing service but I never had to use it. In fact I didnt even mention what I was working at for a finish. Just a simple 'I'm going to work' sufficed at all checkpoints.

The lack of enforcement of any of the public health restrictions was a huge mistake. It was fine for lockdown 1 as most people were terrified of COVID and complied anyway. People (myself included) became blasé as time went on. It was inevitable when there was no deterrent to not following the guidelines. In general I was very complaint but there were times when I traveled more than 5km for example to play golf because I knew I'd get away with it. The worst that would happen would be to be told go home.

Fr_Dougal

billyhead wrote: »

Why would you even encourage this. No wonder we are where we are.

I was being sarcastic.

As I posted here yesterday, these restrictions aren’t worth a damn unless Northern Ireland have them too.

AutoTuning

landofthetree wrote: »

This wont be over till 2023 at the earliest. The governments and the WHO need to start being honest with people.

https://www.top1000funds.com/2020/12/2023-until-normal-returns/



"Speaking at FIS Digital 2020 Dr Ian Norton, founder and managing director of Respond Global and the former global head of WHO’s Emergency Medical Team Initiative warned the 185-odd asset owner attendees with a collective $11 trillion assets under management that a long road to normal still lies ahead.

“We’ve never seen a pandemic end in less than two years,” he said."

The problem is if you’re too honest you could cause a market crash. The market sentiment can go nuts at the slightest hint of something like that.

The older airlines have been saying all along that they’re targeting 2023 for normality. They’ve been probably the most realistic.

StevenToast

suicide_circus wrote: »

George Lee currently climaxing on RTE 1

Post of the day

CoronaBlocker

Endintheclowns wrote: »

Would you sit in a room for 6 hrs with 25 young adults from different households 3 days a week in the middle of a pandemic that is reaching its peak?

Remember now if you somehow get very ill you might not get an ICU bed. Answer truthfully.

Yes, because it's my job. It's what I'm paid to do and it's what is expected of me. What do doctors and nurses feel like watching teachers whinging, I wonder? What do the staff in Tesco and Spar feel like - on their minimum wage money, no pensions and total lack of protection from the great unwashed all day, every day?

Steve012

Steve012 wrote: »

The vaccines won't be fully rolled out this side of the summer, I think is where he is coming from.

If those who are vulnerable and also front line and essential staff are vaccinated then I don't see why we will need level 4 or 5.

Antares35

Follow_ur_lead wrote: »

Just been speaking to some of my mates in building / construction. All of them are deemed essential somehow.

Not a hope sites will close and no wayof enforcing it.

Is it not just social housing that's essential?

caveat emptor

Follow_ur_lead wrote: »

Just been speaking to some of my mates in building / construction. All of them are deemed essential somehow.

Not a hope sites will close and no wayof enforcing it.

That's the point. Leave a little loop hole for your friends. Don't be going upsetting the donors now. Same with the takeaway pints.

He can't give a straight answer. Weasel words. Enough for those who won't do what's right to not do what's right.

The restrictions have been a joke. Losing count of the waves at this stage.

Endintheclowns

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

Yes, because it's my job. It's what I'm paid to do and it's what is expected of me. What do doctors and nurses feel like watching teachers whinging, I wonder? What do the staff in Tesco and Spar feel like - on their minimum wage money, no pensions and total lack of protection from the great unwashed all day, every day?

You'll have to point those doctors, nurses or Tesco workers in the small room with 25 others at the same time for 6 hrs to me because I must have missed it

quartz1

A lot of this was avoidable if The Government had the courage before Christmas . .....the economic cost of keeping the lobby groups sweet will be massive not to mention the suffering of people who pick the virus up. Opposition can't say much because they never opened their mouths either.

growleaves

Deleted User wrote: »

If those who are vulnerable and also front line and essential staff are vaccinated then I don't see why we will need level 4 or 5.

Hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths will be way, way down in that instance so what will the justification be for Level 5...Long Covid?

To paraphrase Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels:

"A spectre is haunting Europe—the spectre of Long Covid."

Mike3549

tom1ie wrote: »

Just doing some back of the napkin maths but:
Our population is approx 5 million.
25% of the pop are under 16 so can’t take the vaccine which leaves 3750000.
Now let’s say that 10% can’t/won’t take vaccine (pregnant women, anti vaxers etc, people worried about the vaccine), that leaves: 3750000-375000=3375000 people to be vaccinated.
So if we manage to get 50k people vaccinated a week that’s 3375000/50000= 67.5 weeks.
Yikes.
Will we manage 50k a week?

If we manage to take 25k swabs a day, 50k vaccinations a week sounds very doable

eggy81

caveat emptor wrote: »

That's the point. Leave a little loop hole for your friends. Don't be going upsetting the donors now. Same with the takeaway pints.

He can't give a straight answer. Weasel words. Enough for those who won't do what's right to not do what's right.

The restrictions have been a joke. Losing count of the waves at this stage.

They way the foreign direct investment nugget was just snuck in at the end of the list was gas.

Corruptedmorals

Just got the email today that the vaccine is landing in work next week. Christ. I am not frontline staff so won't be first in line but I deal with patients and plenty of staff. It is nervewracking right now with people out isolating/awaiting results.

Actually feeling emotional. It's just brilliant.

Antares35

quartz1 wrote: »

A lot of this was avoidable if The Government had the courage before Christmas . .....the economic cost of keeping the lobby groups sweet will be massive not to mention the suffering of people who pick the virus up. Opposition can't say much because they never opened their mouths either.

That's true. I hadn't realised til I read your post actually how quiet they've been. Mary Lou was calling for school closure but only of late I think?

Kivaro

Antares35 wrote: »

Is it not just social housing that's essential?

I'm confused on that one.
Why is it less dangerous/contagious for builders to build social houses than it is for builders to build private houses, which are badly needed for the workers in the country? I understand that a small portion of social housing are occupied by workers, but it seems unfair that the building of private housing developments are now stopped, but social housing developments are allowed to continue.