Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

CIARAN_BOYLE

niallo27 wrote: »

Why would you word it like that, that people just want their jobs back and don't care who dies. Your proving the exact point we are making about how we are not in this together.

Not sure why you would reword my comment like that.

My comment was that if someone is out of work and struggles to feed their kids they want to be back to work so they can feed their kids. They won't care about the deaths of anonymous strangers.

You took out the reference to someone struggling to feed their kids when rewording my comment in order to condemn my post.

Not sure why you would do that.

Qwertyminger

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

There you go. Falling faster than anywhere else at the moment, even Israel.

That's great, what site is that?

MerlinSouthDub

Qwertyminger wrote: »

That's great, what site is that?

This one:

https://www.ourworldindata.org/

bb1234567

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

There you go. Falling faster than anywhere else at the moment, even Israel.

God, size of the curve! Scary to think how high it would have gotten without lockdown. If anywhere in the world shows how effective lockdowns can work with high compliance it's probably Ireland.

snotboogie

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

2 things.

1. It stops symptoms rather than severe symptoms so there is probably a chunk of asymptomatic cases being missed in Israel at the moment.
2. The trial for the vaccine didn't include whether the vaccine impacted your ability to pass on the virus. Data from Israel is suggesting that a person vaccinated with a single shot (10 days after vaccination) is somewhere between (off the top of my head) 38 and 53% less likely to transmit the virus than someone unvaccinated. They have enough people vaccinated by now for this to have a noticeable effect.

More importantly than any of this, the vaccine reduces your chance of contracting the virus by about 90%....

niallo27

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Not sure why you would reword my comment like that.

My comment was that if someone is out of work and struggles to feed their kids they want to be back to work so they can feed their kids. They won't care about the deaths of anonymous strangers.

You took out the reference to someone struggling to feed their kids when rewording my comment in order to condemn my post.

Not sure why you would do that.

I didn't reword your comments, you said who cares in your comment. It came across a bit shirty.

niallo27

bb1234567 wrote: »

God, size of the curve! Scary to think how high it would have gotten without lockdown. If anywhere in the world shows how effective lockdowns can work with high compliance it's probably Ireland.

It also shows how having longer lockdowns than other country actually drives numbers up when restrictions are loosened.

blade1

niallo27 wrote: »

It also shows how having longer lockdowns than other country actually drives numbers up when restrictions are loosened.

I don't think it does.
If it wasn't Christmas I've a feeling that spike wouldn't look like that.

ArthurDayne

bb1234567 wrote: »

God, size of the curve! Scary to think how high it would have gotten without lockdown. If anywhere in the world shows how effective lockdowns can work with high compliance it's probably Ireland.

Seems slightly myopic not to even minimally acknowledge the fact that Christmas is a particularly sociable time of year where people tend to gather in family homes etc — and that tends to change fairly drastically in January when the holidays are over.

Lockdown probably did have an effect on the decline in numbers, but attributing it solely to lockdown seems to utterly ignore how society actually behaves during and then after Christmas.

Turtwig

niallo27 wrote: »

It also shows how having longer lockdowns than other country actually drives numbers up when restrictions are loosened.

No it doesn't. Not even close.

You don't even have any data in that graph to make such inferences.

niallo27

Turtwig wrote: »

No it doesn't. Not even close.

You don't even have any data in that graph to make such inferences.

We had the longest restrictions in the world and when the restrictions were loosened we went from the best in Europe to one of the worst in the world. The same thing happened in October to a lower scale.

Turtwig

niallo27 wrote: »

We had the longest restrictions in the world and when the restrictions were loosened we went from the best in Europe to one of the worst in the world. The same thing happened in October to a lower scale.

We were the best at a time where we proactively locked down before everywhere else got in the sh1tter but didn't see the job through.
We were worst at a time all other countries had significant restrictions in place suppressing their case numbers. We lifted restrictions too soon, cases were above the critical point and the infection soared.

Regardless, none of this can be inferred from the graph.

thelad95

Lot of people losing the will to live slowly.

As many have said, this isn't living it's simply existing. I've been extremely despondent myself lately and really and truly struggling to see any hope even with the vaccine.

In my wider social circle, there's a large enough cohort who have no intention of taking it because they feel like they don't need it. People seriously need to be educated on how it's not just to protect you but to protect everyone else.

I have very little patience for other people anymore, this last twelve months has truly exposed the worst elements of humanity. A lot of people in my social circle I have lost all respect for with their attitude towards this pandemic.

froog

the argument that january was so bad cause we were too tough on people in 2020 is just dumb.

Kalyke

cameramonkey wrote: »

Cases in Israel plummeting.

That graph looks unnaturally straight for Israel?

niallo27

Turtwig wrote: »

We were the best at a time where we proactively locked down before everywhere else got in the sh1tter but didn't see the job through.
We were worst at a time all other countries had significant restrictions in place suppressing their case numbers. We lifted restrictions too soon, cases were above the critical point and the infection soared.

Regardless, none of this can be inferred from the graph.

What is the critical point of cases, so you really don't think having the longest restrictions in the world had any impact on how people acted at Christmas, not even a slight impact.

FintanMcluskey

thelad95 wrote: »

I have very little patience for other people anymore, this last twelve months has truly exposed the worst elements of humanity. A lot of people in my social circle I have lost all respect for with their attitude towards this pandemic.

Can I ask what’s caused you to loose respect towards your friends or those in your social circle?

titan18

niallo27 wrote: »

What is the critical point of cases, so you really don't think having the longest restrictions in the world had any impact on how people acted at Christmas, not even a slight impact.

I think the people who were selfish twats would still have been that no matter how the restrictions were at other points. A lot of them are still being that atm from what I'm seeing amongst people I know.

podgeandrodge

Qwertyminger wrote: »

A friend left a voice message on a WhatsApp group I'm in yesterday and they were clearly at a party. We're not all adhering to them.

You've fallen victim to the 'curse of the newly registered' - they all end up on the receiving end of societal carry on that is beyond most people's normal experience.

_Whimsical_

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Sorry but Lambert is repeating what his patients told him . He has no evidence to suggest the virus is more transmissible via surfaces and it’s frankly very f**king irresponsible of him to suggest so.

I realise that's true, it's anecdotal rather than evidence based, at the same time having been a patient of his in the past I'm inclined to respect his opinion, one of the reasons he is a good dr is that he does not take things at face value, interrogates everything and is very dismissive of what doesn't make sense. This is a moving target, Drs have to make judgement calls rather than wait for the peer reviewed rubber stamp. While I would not take this observation as gospel I will take it on board and be extra mindful of handling packing and washing hands/sanitising. That is all he was advocating, extra emphasis on washing and sanitising.

FintanMcluskey

titan18 wrote: »

I think the people who were selfish twats would still have been that no matter how the restrictions were at other points. A lot of them are still being that atm from what I'm seeing amongst people I know.

Can we deduce from that, those “selfish twats” will not adhere to guidelines under any circumstances?

So the very cost effectiveness of stay at home orders and business closures can be questioned using that very logic?

Those people will ignore guidelines regardless, and responsible people will take personal responsibility regardless of the strictest level of lockdown is mandated

Purple Papillon

thelad95 wrote: »

Lot of people losing the will to live slowly.

As many have said, this isn't living it's simply existing. I've been extremely despondent myself lately and really and truly struggling to see any hope even with the vaccine.

In my wider social circle, there's a large enough cohort who have no intention of taking it because they feel like they don't need it. People seriously need to be educated on how it's not just to protect you but to protect everyone else.

I have very little patience for other people anymore, this last twelve months has truly exposed the worst elements of humanity. A lot of people in my social circle I have lost all respect for with their attitude towards this pandemic.

The lockdown restrictions is not great or ideal but its what you make of it. The weather is OK, cold but dry for the most part. It's great to see so many people and families out walking. I remember the day I finished a long week in work just to rush to a pub on Friday night, suffer with a hangover Saturday, then come Sunday the weekend is almost gone and the Sunday evening fear sets in. The weekend is now more relaxed and I have more energy come Monday morning.

podgeandrodge

Can anyone confirm are the household restrictions on numbers visiting etc. advisory or legally mandated?
Also, if someone were to visit another household for a gathering against advice/legal position, could their employer take action against them if they found out i.e. for putting other employees at increased risk? Thanks.

Turtwig

niallo27 wrote: »

What is the critical point of cases, so you really don't think having the longest restrictions in the world had any impact on how people acted at Christmas, not even a slight impact.

No idea what the threshold is. That's one I'm hoping NPHET's modelling group will be able to refine further now. It's clear from their late Nov reports that they thought we were still above it but hopefully this latest shtfest will give them an even clearer picture of where the sensitivities lie.

I never said people being given freedom from a longer restriction didn't have an impact. I don't doubt it was a factor. I don't think it is a significant a factor as you are making it out to be. If the communication from government was better people would have been more careful.

Also your point about the graph. (which is ALL I was remarking on). You can't make the points you were making from that graph.

Kunta Kinte

niallo27 wrote: »

We had the longest restrictions in the world and when the restrictions were loosened we went from the best in Europe to one of the worst in the world. The same thing happened in October to a lower scale.

The longest restrictions in the world? What evidence do you have to backup that claim?

FintanMcluskey

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

The longest restrictions in the world? What evidence do you have to backup that claim?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-had-longest-lockdown-for-pubs-and-restaurants-in-europe-report-1.4414028%3fmode=amp

Ireland’s first lockdown was by far the longest in Europe for bars, restaurants, cinemas and non-essential shops, according to a new report.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) health system policy tracker states that public spaces defined as parks, restaurants, bars, cinemas, non-essential shops and services were closed in Ireland for 120 days from March 12th.

The country with the next highest number of days where public spaces were shut was Finland (74 days) followed by Slovakia (66 days) and Bulgaria and Estonia (both 65 days).

titan18

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Can we deduce from that, those “selfish twats” will not adhere to guidelines under any circumstances?

So the very cost effectiveness of stay at home orders and business closures can be questioned using that very logic?

Those people will ignore guidelines regardless, and responsible people will take personal responsibility regardless of the strictest level of lockdown is mandated

Not really, they can do a lot less damage ATM with things closed whereas with bars and restaurants open, they can spread things to a lot more people if they have it

CIARAN_BOYLE

Turtwig wrote: »

No idea what the threshold is. That's one I'm hoping NPHET's modelling group will be able to refine further now. It's clear from their late Nov reports that they thought we were still above it but hopefully this latest shtfest will give them an even clearer picture of where the sensitivities lie.

I never said people being given freedom from a longer restriction didn't have an impact. I don't doubt it was a factor. I don't think it is a significant a factor as you are making it out to be. If the communication from government was better people would have been more careful.

Also your point about the graph. (which is ALL I was remarking on). You can't make the points you were making from that graph.

Asking someone to define the critical number is going to be impossible.

I got a real sense going into December that they knew restrictions and guidance would be out the window. NPHET didn't want to open up unless cases were below 50.

They might be more permissive at another time as there wouldn't be the same explosion of gathering. Let's say 200 cases a day.

Then in March or April they may be even more permissive feeling that we can open up at a higher level of cases based on the numbers vaccinated. We might be in a position in late March where 600 cases a day would have the same effect on the health service as 200 cases a day last September.

I do remember last year Nolan saying that that 600 cases a day was not a level the health service could maintain non covid care at.

FintanMcluskey

titan18 wrote: »

Not really, they can do a lot less damage ATM with things closed whereas with bars and restaurants open, they can spread things to a lot more people if they have it

Bur are we saying basic mitigation measures like social distancing and mask wearing in those places does not prevent spread?

Was contact tracing in those places a waste of time?

Turtwig

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Can we deduce from that, those “selfish twats” will not adhere to guidelines under any circumstances?

So the very cost effectiveness of stay at home orders and business closures can be questioned using that very logic?

Those people will ignore guidelines regardless, and responsible people will take personal responsibility regardless of the strictest level of lockdown is mandated

That is very weird logic. Selfish twats misbehaving is the argument for removing control from the public. Shutting down as many indoor congregation points as possible.

If everyone was responsible - and this includes businesses - then you would expect to be able to keep the spread autonomously suppressed. Trouble is we know it isn't. We know where super spreading events are likely to occur and sadly, these are places where selfish twats can have a major impact.