Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

titan18

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Bur are we saying basic mitigation measures like social distancing and mask wearing in those places does not prevent spread?

Was contact tracing in those places a waste of time?

Mask wearing in a bar or restaurant didn't happen anyway tbf, and I've seen plenty of places where the 6 to a table or social distancing wasnt adhered to or enforced.

FintanMcluskey

Turtwig wrote: »

That is very weird logic. Selfish twats misbehaving is the argument for removing control from the public. Shutting down as many indoor congregation points as possible.

If everyone was responsible - and this includes businesses - then you would expect to be able to keep the spread autonomously suppressed. Trouble is we know it isn't. We know where super spreading events are likely to occur and sadly, these are places where selfish twats can have a major impact.

Where are super spreader events likely since basic mitigation measures have been introduced?

Can you point to one responsible business that was found to be a cause of a super spreader event in Ireland?

Kunta Kinte

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-had-longest-lockdown-for-pubs-and-restaurants-in-europe-report-1.4414028%3fmode=amp

That report only covers European countries. You stated that Ireland had the longest in the world. What, if any, evidence do you have for that claim?

Drumpot

froog wrote: »

the argument that january was so bad cause we were too tough on people in 2020 is just dumb.

Shows how inefficient people are at understanding what’s been happening and choosing to create the narrative that gives them the lockdown solution they favour.We need to try to learn from this as a society, I fear we won’t but it starts from education at school level.

We are educated to conform into society with little encouragement or training for critical thinking or problem solving. Lack of self reflection is a huge deficiency. If every person was able to stand back, look at their own motives and see overall how what they want can cause damage things would work out a lot better in a crisis.

It’s the governments fault. It’s NEPHETs fault. It’s children’s fault. It’s china’s fault.... Just stop this nonsense narrative, it doesn’t help on any level. The huge increase in numbers the last month are a result of the people of Ireland’s actions over that period, it’s that simple but people will try to muddy this fact with sentiments and emotions. We decided that a social event was more important then being more cautious. That is not an accusation, it’s a simple fact that cuts through all the hysterical nonsense in between. So we need to own our decision as a society to do that and not blame authorities or governments. We also need to accept that it wasn’t inevitable and there was no alternative to what happened in December , we just prioritized what we wanted, that was the definitive factor in the outcome.

Blaming others Is just deflecting the conversation away from what we need to do. As many wise people would say if you are pointing at others you are neglecting yourself. There is a chronic lack of self responsibility being harnessed in Western cultures. Don’t give a flying f**k about anybody but themselves and don’t care to explore or address that characteristic.

Mental health discussions are generally misguided or disguised to justify certain people’s wants during the lockdown. I’ve suffered from mental health issues all
My life and the solution is not simply to rely on people places and things to make you feel better. It takes a lot of hard work. But that aside, you don’t change your strategy in a crisis because people are finding it hard. By its very definition a global crisis should be hard for a lot of people, otherwise it wouldn’t really be a global crisis. A crisis should at some time make us anxious and depressed. People need to accept that and try to manage things instead of looking for an emotional bail out. Those who manage a crisis emotionally well are far more likely to thrive.

In terms of economy, there is no signs that we are economically in any trouble any time soon. Even those with a basic understanding of economics will know the country will not be collapsing. Some companies and Industry’s may not survive but others will replace them. This is not nice for those most impacted but in a crisis there is always portions of society who suffer more.

Can anybody explain why EU has made such a balls of the vaccine rollouts? Germany and Hungary have done their own deals for extra vaccines, why can’t we try and get in on the Oxford vaccine? (Hungary borough the non EU approved Russian one). Sometimes I get annoyed at us being too much trying to tow line in Europe, buy more vaccine and bring in our own airport measures , close us off to countries and stop waiting for Germany to make unilateral decisions before following suit.

That has been one of our biggest weaknesses. Very reactive and not very proactive. Why are there leaving cert exams still potentially on? Did nobody think last summer that maybe we should have a contingency plan and cut off dates to cancel the LC to get fair to children and teachers and collages? It’s deplorable and inexcusable. There are so many things we could of considered last summer that we could of prepared for and implemented seamlessly to lower the pressure and anxiety on everybody but instead they did nothing. Open up, close is the limits of our authorities , our government and our people. It’s sad and shameful because it didn’t have to be this bad or hard.

BredonWimsey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Where are super spreader events likely since basic mitigation measures have been introduced?

Can you point to one responsible business that was found to be a cause of a super spreader event in Ireland?

well what do you mean by responsible business


you have businesses that may not be responsible


its an oxymoran


check out what happened in bellmullet

Turtwig

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Where are super spreader events likely since basic mitigation measures have been introduced?

Can you point to one responsible business that was found to be a cause of a super spreader event in Ireland?

Given your previous posts I have no idea what you mean by basic mitigation measures. Please clarify.

In the same way I can't say someone is a sex offender. I can't point out individual businesses as being irresponsible. Whether they are or not is largely immaterial. They are the locales where super spreading occurs.

runawaybishop

snotboogie wrote: »

More importantly than any of this, the vaccine reduces your chance of contracting the virus by about 90%....

That's not proven yet, you are mistaking the reduction in severe symptoms with a prevention of transmission.

FintanMcluskey

Turtwig wrote: »

Given your previous posts I have no idea what you mean by basic mitigation measures. Please clarify.

In the same way I can't say someone is a sex offender. I can't point out individual businesses as being irresponsible. Whether they are or not is largely immaterial. They are the locales where super spreading occurs.

Basic mitigation is mask wearing, social distancing and hygiene measures.

So you don’t have any evidence of responsible businesses causing super spreading events

Eivor

Elessar wrote: »

Put government officials and NPHET on a reduced "solidarity" wage like they did in New Zealand and watch how much quicker restrictions get lifted.

Of course that wouldn't happen here in a million years.

Not lifted but zero Covid would definitely been given a good go

runawaybishop

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Basic mitigation is mask wearing, social distancing and hygiene measures.

So you don’t have any evidence of responsible businesses causing super spreading events

If they are responsile then by definition they wouldn't cause superspreading events. There are plenty of irresponsible businesses causing huge issues.

opinionated3

runawaybishop wrote: »

That's not proven yet, you are mistaking the reduction in severe symptoms with a prevention of transmission.

Maybe not 100% proven, but early research from those vaccinated in Israel is showing that they are not transmitters of the virus...... Hopefully that's borne out even more as the weeks go by

Wolf359f

cameramonkey wrote: »

Cases in Israel plummeting.

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

There you go. Falling faster than anywhere else at the moment, even Israel.

Those 2 charts show a massive difference between the 2
One shows Israel dropping from a high of ~90 down to 60 (33% drop)
The other a drop from 1000 to a little over 800 (20% drop)
Israel's own hub shows the 7 day average drop from 8326 to 7074... What I am not seeing?

runawaybishop

opinionated3 wrote: »

Maybe not 100% proven, but early research from those vaccinated in Israel is showing that they are not transmitters of the virus...... Hopefully that's borne out even more as the weeks go by

Indeed, but I was responding being to someone that was saying the vaccines stop 90% of transmission. This is not correct.

Turtwig

Drumpot wrote: »

Can anybody explain why EU has made such a balls of the vaccine rollouts? Germany and Hungary have done their own deals for extra vaccines, why can’t we try and get in on the Oxford vaccine? (Hungary borough the non EU approved Russian one). Sometimes I get annoyed at us being too much trying to tow line in Europe, buy more vaccine and bring in our own airport measures , close us off to countries and stop waiting for Germany to make unilateral decisions before following suit.

Decent commentary on this by Tony Connelly
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2021/0123/1191535-europe-covid-analysis/

Relevant bit:

When the pandemic broke last year, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Italy set up the Inclusive Vaccine Alliance in order to boost their purchasing potential and to try to keep vaccine production in Europe.

At the time, all the focus was on the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine.

However, the EU decided in June that the European Commission should act as one agent in bulk buying vaccines for all 27 member states and the Inclusive Vaccine Alliance’s efforts were folded into the new approach.

The imperative was to avoid member states competing against each other, and to ensure all member states got enough supplies at a more competitive price.

Irish officials insist that, as a small member state in a free-for-all, Ireland would not have got the doses it needed at the right time, in the right quantities and at the right price. "We'd never get these prices or that quantity if we were competing with 26 other member states," said one senior Irish figure.

In the event, across the portfolio of vaccines, the Government expects to have enough doses to vaccinate 8.3 million people, through single- or double-dose vaccines.

Back in June, the Commission and member states set up a Steering Board to manage negotiations with the pharmaceutical companies. There was a febrile atmosphere, given the urgency to halt the pandemic in its tracks, the huge amounts of money involved, and the fact that member states jealously guard their competences when it comes to public health.

There were also potentially 165 vaccines to choose from. While the lead candidates - Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca - are now household names, back then officials said it was like buying lottery tickets.

"It's a bit like going to a horse race and you bet on a couple of horses, and afterwards someone comes along and says, it was very clear that this horse would win, why didn't you bet much more on it?" said one senior official.

EU negotiators were desperately trying to decide which horse to back.

"I remember dozens of calls where everybody was saying, AstraZeneca is the one which is going to come out first and be the most successful," recalled a senior EU official. "Look at where we stand now."

Officials were under pressure from member states, who in turn appeared to take a liberal approach to the EU funds deployed to secure the contracts, under the Emergency Support Instrument (ESSI).

"They knew we could afford [to take a] risk with the vaccination strategy," remarks one official. "Perhaps we could put money on companies for things that will never occur. No member state would ever have bought mRNA [on its own]."

In the event, EU negotiators entered contracts with eight companies. A key issue was indemnity in the negotiations: who would be on the hook if the vaccines turned out to be unsafe?

Liability normally rests with pharmaceutical companies, yet they were being asked to produce vaccines at breakneck speed. EU officials insist they ensured that liability would rest with the companies. In a contract for one of the cheaper vaccines, both sides agreed that member states would pay for legal costs if there was a problem. Apart from that, national capitals would remain indemnified from legal action.

But what if the Commission had backed a whole range of vaccines and they all turned out to be successful? The EU would then be saddled with a massive and expensive surplus of doses. While the Commission had made provisions to pass those on to vulnerable countries, the terms of the contracts meant that indemnity only applied within the EU region.

Tl;Dr luck mainly at what vaccines people chose.
Ireland is too small to compete globally for them. We're reliant on the EU.

Drumpot

Turtwig wrote: »

Decent commentary on this by Tony Connelly
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2021/0123/1191535-europe-covid-analysis/

Relevant bit:


Tl;Dr luck mainly at what vaccines people chose.
Ireland is too small to compete globally for them. We're reliant on the EU.

Thanks.

So what’s to stop us doing what some countries are doing and buy a few extra ones ourselves? Isn’t the Oxford one cheap enough? Why can’t we buy a million or something? What is the cost of speeding things up to open economy? Perhaps it’s not that simple but it’s clear some countries are spending more to speed it up (like Germany)

MerlinSouthDub

Wolf359f wrote: »

Those 2 charts show a massive difference between the 2
One shows Israel dropping from a high of ~90 down to 60 (33% drop)
The other a drop from 1000 to a little over 800 (20% drop)
Israel's own hub shows the 7 day average drop from 8326 to 7074... What I am not seeing?

Oh, I didn't spot that. I can't explain it. The first chart (the 33% drop) is from the FT. It doesn't seem to be consistent with our world in data, or worldometer. Possibly they have one dodgy data point for yesterday's cases which is messing up the data? Hard to tell though

marno21

Any chatter today about when construction may reopen?

JoChervil

Wolf359f wrote: »

Those 2 charts show a massive difference between the 2
One shows Israel dropping from a high of ~90 down to 60 (33% drop)
The other a drop from 1000 to a little over 800 (20% drop)
Israel's own hub shows the 7 day average drop from 8326 to 7074... What I am not seeing?

I think you are confusing new cases with active cases. 2 days ago Israel had around 615 new cases

stephenjmcd

Drumpot wrote: »

Thanks.

So what’s to stop us doing what some countries are doing and buy a few extra ones ourselves? Isn’t the Oxford one cheap enough? Why can’t we buy a million or something? What is the cost of speeding things up to open economy? Perhaps it’s not that simple but it’s clear some countries are spending more to speed it up (like Germany)

We could go out and look to place an order with someone but it won't be delivered until after the EU orders have been completed, so what's the point ? Nothing speeds up because we'll have more than enough in the deals already done.

Germany is constantly raised here but they've already said they get nothing extra until the EU order is completed. That'll be much later this year.

Eivor

titan18 wrote: »

Mask wearing in a bar or restaurant didn't happen anyway tbf, and I've seen plenty of places where the 6 to a table or social distancing wasnt adhered to or enforced.

How did you see them?

JoChervil

While they had almost 8000 active cases by 100000

Drumpot

stephenjmcd wrote: »

We could go out and look to place an order with someone but it won't be delivered until after the EU orders have been completed, so what's the point ?

Germany is constantly raised here but they've already said they get nothing extra until the EU order is completed.

But the EU hasn’t ordered any Oxford vaccine. Is it basically because any order placed now on any vaccine just goes into a que and you are back of the pile?

runawaybishop

Drumpot wrote: »

Thanks.

So what’s to stop us doing what some countries are doing and buy a few extra ones ourselves? Isn’t the Oxford one cheap enough? Why can’t we buy a million or something? What is the cost of speeding things up to open economy? Perhaps it’s not that simple but it’s clear some countries are spending more to speed it up (like Germany)

Germany bought extra vaccines, which will be delivered after all the negotiated eu ones are delivered.

How do you think we would fare competing against Germany, France etc for limited vaccines?

stephenjmcd

Drumpot wrote: »

But the EU hasn’t ordered any Oxford vaccine. Is it basically because any order placed now on any vaccine just goes into a que and you are back of the pile?

The EU hasn't ordered any Oxford vaccine ?? There's an order for 400 million in
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1438

runawaybishop

Drumpot wrote: »

But the EU hasn’t ordered any Oxford vaccine. Is it basically because any order placed now on any vaccine just goes into a que and you are back of the pile?

What? Eu has pre-ordered 8 vaccines, of which the Oxford vaccines is one and should be approved this week, with delivery marked for mid Feb.

All this info is freely available.

Turtwig

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Basic mitigation is mask wearing, social distancing and hygiene measures.

So you don’t have any evidence of responsible businesses causing super spreading events

The basic mitigation measures reduce risk. They don't eliminate it entirely. Masks, social distancing, hand washing in an enclosured environment is still risky.

I can't name businesses no. (Just like I can't name individuals). There are however numerous examples both in Ireland and globally of such events that have been published.

JoChervil

runawaybishop wrote: »

Germany bought extra vaccines, which will be delivered after all the negotiated eu ones are delivered.

How do you think we would fare competing against Germany, France etc for limited vaccines?

As far as I know Germany got their vaccine from inside negotiated whole amount for Europe. For example Poland bought only half of numbers from Pheizer, which we could have bought as well as we ordered vaccines only from 5 producers, not six. So other country were free to buy those vaccines, which Poland didn't buy or order

Drumpot

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The EU hasn't ordered any Oxford vaccine ?? There's an order for 400 million in
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1438

Ah sorry, it’s that it hasn’t been approved for use in EU yet, I was getting it mixed up. Do you know why the EU has delayed approvement?

runawaybishop

Drumpot wrote: »

Ah sorry, it’s that it hasn’t been approved for use in EU yet, I was getting it mixed up. Do you know why the EU has delayed approvement?

They haven't delayed approvement. The application for approval was late.

Wolf359f

JoChervil wrote: »

I think you are confusing new cases with active cases. 2 days ago Israel had around 615 new cases

None of those charts are active cases. I can't see where Israel 2 days ago reported only 615 new cases. Have you a link? I'm not saying you're wrong, just trying to wrap my head around the differences in charts.