Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

iamwhoiam

New2Dubs wrote: »

When I’m running I go out of my way to avoid others for this very reason, I would hate for someone to think I was puffing near them. I’ll run on road if needs be. I don’t think you can generalise that runners are the worst offenders. I give up on groups walking 3 or 4 abreast - the 2 metre rule has gone out the window for some.

Fair play to you . I didn’t actually say they were the worst offenders . I agree totally about the four abreast though

Technophobe

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

They must be countless dead people in their homes not discovered around the country.

Yes, thousands of bodies I'd say.. sweet Jesus

mcburns07

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Fair play to you . I didn’t actually say they were the worst offenders . I agree totally about the four abreast though

Pavement hoggers are the worst. I'm a very fast walker and have a dog. I spend half the time on the road these days trying to get around the amblers :pac:

ax530

I have attempted jogging with mask on I found it very difficult. Wanted to give it a go.
Was on a quiet country road I put it on when saw people approaching.

muddypuppy

ax530 wrote: »

I have attempted jogging with mask on I found it very difficult. Wanted to give it a go.
Was on a quiet country road I put it on when saw people approaching.

It's doable, but it sucks bad (I run a lot). I don't see why it should be required when the official guidelines don't mandate any mask outside (rightly so, if you ask me). Maybe when everyone has we can talk about that.

CalamariFritti

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

The time for doom is over, we have done really well at crushing this surge, we should have a positive outlook and constructive discussions on how to maintain low spread once we get figures down into the 100s, likely by mid-Feb.

The hysteria around travel is mis-placed, the surge may have been aided by the new variant (that is very much open to debate though, it seems widely accepted now which is a bit scary as there is no hard evidence).

The simple truth is there was a huge amount of socializing from early December, this was when cases were still around 300 per day with community transmission..

We did this to ourselves, 'd bleedin foreigners' didn't do this or cause this.

It is great to have a scapegoat to kick and blame though, it can deflect from the truth that lots of us let our guards down over December and it cost us.

That is the really really scary bit. The amount of stuff that ends up in the papers and elsewhere as fact simply by virtue of having been repeated often enough. There is zero hard evidence that this so-called UK variant is more transmissible or more lethal. Zero.

But Boris ran with it as a cop out to his bad numbers and the media are just fkn loving it and its now a repeated und seemingly undisputed fact.

The way we as a supposedly educated and modern society carry on in this is absolutely pathetic.

I mean think about it. Its now a year into it and we still have no idea of true case numbers, no idea of the main spread channels, no idea of prevalence, no idea why a significant amount of people have pre-existing immunity. We have no idea about any-fkn-thing that is important in this. And seemingly no plan to get there either. But we suspend democracy and shut down entire continents and are fretting in some perpetual panic state ever since.

And nobody finds that even to be a major talking point. People just lapping everything up, 'ah sure its a novel virus. And the experts know best.'

Had you made a movie with this 2 years ago people would have laughed about it.

mcburns07

CalamariFritti wrote: »

That is the really really scary bit. The amount of stuff that ends up in the papers and elsewhere as fact simply by virtue of having been repeated often enough. There is zero hard evidence that this so-called UK variant is more transmissible or more lethal. Zero.

But Boris ran with it as a cop out to his bad numbers and the media are just fkn loving it and its now a repeated und seemingly undisputed fact.

The way we as a supposedly educated and modern society carry on in this is absolutely pathetic.

I mean think about it. Its now a year into it and we still have no idea of true case numbers, no idea of the main spread channels, no idea of prevalence, no idea why a significant amount of people have pre-existing immunity. We have no idea about any-fkn-thing that is important in this. And seemingly no plan to get there either. But we suspend democracy and shut down entire continents and are fretting in some perpetual panic state ever since.

And nobody finds that even to be a major talking point. People just lapping everything up, 'ah sure its a novel virus. And the experts know best.'

Had you made a movie with this 2 years ago people would have laughed about it.

Finding this aspect of the pandemic really frustrating too. The lack of reliable information, so much disinformation, media focusing almost exclusively on negatives. The whole thing would have been a lot less stressful if we were able to just get on with it.

timsey tiger

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Yeh fair enough , it is probably a low risk all right . But being honest I avoid stepping into their jet stream if I can !

If the viral load theory at infection is correct, catching it from one puff off a jogger could mean getting it asymptomaticly. Happy days, until you pass it on to your ma

majcos

HSE operations report 24/1.

Covid cases hospitalised as of 8pm 1930 - increase from 1893.
9 hospitals with over 100 cases.

ICU confirmed Covid cases as of 6.30pm 219 - increase from 214.
4 deaths in ICU 24 hours up to 8am.
Confirmed Covid cases ventilated 132 as of 6.30pm - increase from 131.

Available ICU beds 25 as of 6.30pm.
10 ICUs with no available beds.
Total open and staffed ICU beds 345.

Stark

titan18 wrote: »

Possibly sweating so they're damp makes them less effective that they become pointless

Yeah it's seriously difficult to breathe through a damp mask.

It's like wearing a raincoat. When it's dry, you don't sweat too much under it. When the outside of the jacket gets wet, you sweat like a bitch as vapour can't pass through the wet jacket as easily.

Turtwig

345 staffed ICU beds is that a record?

CalamariFritti

mcburns07 wrote: »

Finding this aspect of the pandemic really frustrating too. The lack of reliable information, so much disinformation, media focusing almost exclusively on negatives. The whole thing would have been a lot less stressful if we were able to just get on with it.

I don't just find it frustrating. I find it infuriating.

I have full sympathy with people who go over the edge and start thinking this is some sort of conspiracy. Because rationally we couldnt possibly be this stupid.

Only thing that stops me personally going into the CT camp is that I do believe we can indeed be this stupid. Plenty of evidence for that.

Stark

Does anyone know if there's an up to date source for finding out the prevalance of the B117 (UK Variant). The continued decline in case numbers is very comforting, I'm wondering what percentage of cases are the new variant.

Cerveza

Numbers are nearly there to get schools back. Norma needs to buck up this week and make it happening.

RacoonQueen

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Do you think its ok that they blow out there breath while passing others ?
If I was standing in a Supermarket queue puffing and panting my breath like that I am almost sure people would be annoyed

Dunno where you're walking but when I'm running I'm not puffing and panting unless I'm doing a session and you're not going to be doing that where there is a lot of foot traffic and pavement hoggers etc https://www.independent.ie/life/five-types-of-people-you-meet-within-your-5km-exercise-route-39980825.html
The worst are the people who walk on the right side of the path when the person in 5m ahead of them going in same direction is on the left. Walk on the same side you divs...where do you expect people coming in other direction to go? :rolleyes:
People on foot have always been ignoran. People who don't even acknowledge someone who has clearly moved onto mud/grass/the road. :mad:

Anyway, I don't believe there is any evidence to say 'joggers' are any more likely to pass on covid to you while outdoors than a walker you pass might.

Wolf359f

Turtwig wrote: »

345 staffed ICU beds is that a record?

Nope, first wave we have well over 420 open and staffed.
Just a random day I checked: https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-updates-20-00-24-april-2020.pdf
The beds and equipment I'd assume are still there, but I'd say it's the staff which is effecting it, as we know it takes a whole team per ICU bed.

But fair play to those involved, every day they seem to be opening up additional manned ICU beds. I can't imagine the pressure they are under.

Wolf359f

Cerveza wrote: »

Numbers are nearly there to get schools back. Norma needs to buck up this week and make it happening.

Case numbers maybe, but hospitals are still under strain.
We could be soon down to very low numbers, but hospital figures will still be over 1000.
From the first wave peak in hospital numbers, it took 4 weeks to drop to 50% and 6 weeks to drop to 25%.
So 6 weeks from now we could still have 500 in hospital. That's a high base to start opening up.
I know schools are a priority though.

CalamariFritti

CalamariFritti wrote: »

That is the really really scary bit. The amount of stuff that ends up in the papers and elsewhere as fact simply by virtue of having been repeated often enough. There is zero hard evidence that this so-called UK variant is more transmissible or more lethal. Zero

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/16/world/europe/uk-coronavirus-variant.html

It’s an interesting read, if you actually want to take your head out of the sand.

berocca2016

RacoonQueen wrote: »

Dunno where you're walking but when I'm running I'm not puffing and panting unless I'm doing a session and you're not going to be doing that where there is a lot of foot traffic and pavement hoggers etc https://www.independent.ie/life/five-types-of-people-you-meet-within-your-5km-exercise-route-39980825.html
The worst are the people who walk on the right side of the path when the person in 5m ahead of them going in same direction is on the left. Walk on the same side you divs...where do you expect people coming in other direction to go? :rolleyes:
People on foot have always been ignoran. People who don't even acknowledge someone who has clearly moved onto mud/grass/the road. :mad:

Anyway, I don't believe there is any evidence to say 'joggers' are any more likely to pass on covid to you while outdoors than a walker you pass might.

The worst I've found is the couples, girl circa late twenties, early thirties (let's call her aisling), walking two abreast right in the middle of the path with their much maligned boyfriend. God forbid they'd even move an iota out of the way to let me jog past them at a safe social distance, even when you jog into the middle of the road aisling gives you a judgemental stare criticising you for daring to exercise at her structured meander time. Boyfriend meanwhile is staring at the ground.....

Common courtesy has gone completely out the window !

CalamariFritti

Aegir wrote: »

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/16/world/europe/uk-coronavirus-variant.html

It’s an interesting read, if you actually want to take your head out of the sand.

You need to quote the essential bits and post them here. Not signing up just to read an article.

Edit: I actually tried, I AM interested, but they want google account, email and now they want my phone number to send me the link to the article. Sorry, but no.

Would also be nice if people could send links and info without these childish side digs like 'taking head out of sand'.

Icyseanfitz

Wolf359f wrote: »

Case numbers maybe, but hospitals are still under strain.
We could be soon down to very low numbers, but hospital figures will still be over 1000.
From the first wave peak in hospital numbers, it took 4 weeks to drop to 50% and 6 weeks to drop to 25%.
So 6 weeks from now we could still have 500 in hospital. That's a high base to start opening up.
I know schools are a priority though.

Not to even mention the new variants or no close contact testing.

cameramonkey

Aegir wrote: »

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/16/world/europe/uk-coronavirus-variant.html

It’s an interesting read, if you actually want to take your head out of the sand.

how come if this variant is so much more transmissible and is widespread in Ireland that numbers here are falling so quickly?

Stark

cameramonkey wrote: »

how come if this variant is some much more transmissible and is widespread in Ireland that numbers her are falling so quickly?

It's a mystery. But it's gone from being 9% of cases to 62% of cases in a matter of 3 weeks. That would indicate it has a significant transmission advantage over the previously established variants.

Wolf359f

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Not to even mention the new variants or no close contact testing.

New variants is still up in the air. We had at last count ~50% of the Kent variant which should drive up the R0, yet we appear to have a lower R0 than last March with a looser lockdown.

I've heard of some close contact non symptomatic testing, but yes it's on hold.
It's been on hold for weeks so comparing numbers week to week is still valid.
~1300 cases today with ~2 contacts is 2600 extra tests, with a ~15% positivity rate would yield an additional 390 cases.
A week ago that could have been an additional 1000. You see the trend?

marno21

Stark wrote: »

It's a mystery. But it's gone from being 9% of cases to 62% of cases in a matter of 3 weeks. That would indicate it has a significant transmission advantage over the previously established variants.

Or it could mean that many of the outbreaks caused in and around Christmas were caused by people returning from the UK, or people returning from other countries via the UK.

stephenjmcd

Stark wrote: »

It's a mystery. But it's gone from being 9% of cases to 62% of cases in a matter of 3 weeks. That would indicate it has a significant transmission advantage over the previously established variants.

Not really, there's been change of dominant strain a few times during the pandemic. All start from a low base and grow quite quickly, there were similar fears over the "Spanish strain", during the summer that it too were more transmissible due to the increasingly large number of cases of it being detected, turns out it wasn't, but it too took off at the time.

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1352612075332362240?s=19

Cerveza

The variant that caused the problem was the meaningful Christmas variant.

Wolf359f

Stark wrote: »

It's a mystery. But it's gone from being 9% of cases to 62% of cases in a matter of 3 weeks. That would indicate it has a significant transmission advantage over the previously established variants.

Or could it be that with Christmas more people arrived in Ireland from the UK who were positive than the number of positive people in Ireland?
If 100 in Ireland are infected and 200 positive people from the UK arrive. Right then the UK variant is 66.66% without any additional transmission.

Wolf359f

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Not really, there's been change of dominant strain a few times during the pandemic. All start from a low base and grow quite quickly, there were similar fears over the "Spanish strain", during the summer that it too were more transmissible due to the increasingly large number of cases of it being detected, turns out it wasn't, but it too took off at the time.

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1352612075332362240?s=19

So excluding this latest strain. That graph clearly shows 19A was more infectios in Ireland than 19B. Then 20B more over summer and then 20E over the Autumn.... you can see a trend eh?
Dominant strain ≠ more infectious strain

MerlinSouthDub

Wolf359f wrote: »

~1300 cases today with ~2 contacts is 2600 extra tests, with a ~15% positivity rate would yield an additional 390 cases.
A week ago that could have been an additional 1000. You see the trend?

Symptomatic close contacts will get tested anyway, so it’s an even smaller effect than your estimate.